How will India-Pakistan relations evolve in 2024?

[Cpt. Rishwat]

lol you may want to call yourself a neutral brit, but you are Pakistani by heart. India and especially BJP have tried to establish peace multiple times and have been stuck back with terror attacks. The same people who you all cheered when they unleashed terror in India are not unleashing terror in Pakistan. Only way to improve relationship is somehow Pakistani citizens get enough strength to take power away from their establishment and empower their elected officials.

Sorry I have just seen this post now, have not been able to monitor every post over the last couple of weeks.

When did I cheer terror attacks in India? Can you offer some examples before making such horrendous statements?

As for me being a Pakistani by heart, not really sure what you mean. I have some connection due to blood ties, but culturally I am 100% Brit.

 

[FearlessRoar]

Restarting trade with India stays elusive​

There is no consensus among the stakeholders regarding the restoration of trade relations between Pakistan and India, according to the people familiar with the development.

Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, speaking at a news conference in London on Saturday, indicated that Pakistan would give serious consideration to re-establishing trade ties with India, echoing sentiments expressed by the business and trade community within the country.

Pakistan suspended bilateral trade as part of a raft of measures in reaction to the Indian government's unilateral move to revoke the special status of disputed Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) on August 5, 2019.

Islamabad had previously tied the resumption of trade with India to a reconsideration of India's decision regarding IIOJK.

In March 2021, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government was close to lifting the ban when the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet agreed to partially open trade with India. However, the decision was vetoed by the federal cabinet after some members warned then-prime minister Imran Khan that the decision would be a political suicide.

At the time, the security establishment under then-army chief General (retd) Qamar Javed Bajwa was eager to normalise ties with India.

Dar's latest statement suggested that there may be a renewed push to break the ice in the relationship with India.

Sources, however, told The Express Tribune on Sunday that there was no concrete proposal on the table at this stage regarding the resumption of trade ties between Pakistan and India.

It is believed that there are differences of opinion among the stakeholders regarding the move. Even within the Foreign Office, there are divided views, something sources said was not unusual.

Some are in favour of sticking to Pakistan’s stance that without any major concessions from India, there shouldn't be any normalisation.

However, others take a more pragmatic and realistic view. They believe Pakistan can take a page out of China’s playbook. China has uneasy ties and border disputes with India, yet this has not deterred the two rivals from trade ties.

While Gen (retd) Bajwa was keen to improve ties with India, there is little clarity when it comes to his successor. Some observers think that Dar's statement on the resumption of ties may have the blessing of the powers that be.

The proponents of resuming trade ties with India believe that regional trade could help Pakistan mitigate its economic troubles.

A study conducted by an international financial institution spoke of the great trade potential between Pakistan and India. The study shows that the true trade potential between Pakistan and India could be over $25 billion.

Official sources, however, are sceptical about the positive outcome. The Foreign Office thinks Pakistan must wait until the Indian elections, which are scheduled to take place in different phases in April and May.

The clear picture would emerge only once a new government is in place in New Delhi in May.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Shehbaz Sharif on his election victory, but his terse statement raised many eyebrows.

Observers believe that despite the tense relationship, Modi’s message seems to suggest that India wants to keep the window of talks open with Pakistan.

Restarting trade with India stays elusive | The Express Tribune

No consensus among stakeholders yet regarding restoration of trade relations between both countries

tribune.com.pk

 

[FearlessRoar]

Don't know about India, but trading with India is needed for Pakistan.

 

[Hextro]

Don't know about India, but trading with India is needed for Pakistan.

Could you elaborate on why that is the case? Because the problem I think you're referring to has many logical solutions, and none of them includes trading with India.

 

[guard]

I envisage hostility at the border as the Indian elections near. Pak is always India's trump card to win elections.

Maybe once upon a time, definitely Yes. But since their economy has accelerated i dont think they bother as much. they will still drag Pakistans name in the mud for point scoring

 

[JaDed]

We've demonstrated that we can thrive without relying on trade with India, as evidenced by our industry and trade growth from 2018 to 2022. This period saw us surpassing growth targets through policies fostering industry growth and production, not import-driven policies like those of PML-N/PDM. If we started importing things from India with the usual PML-N import-oriented policies, 2022 Sri Lanka would start looking like a paradise in comparison.

You guys are already in that boat with China imports.

Imran Khan himself kept asking IMF to forgive loans for poor countries after covid , why do you think that was? Because of this aspect of Pakistani economy, it has always been like this.

 

[JaDed]

Yeah, you are right. Anti-Pakistan campaign has always worked in India for the party to win the elections.

? Considering Congress has ruled India majority of the time, and Establishment in Pakistan I doubt it.

 

[Hextro]

You guys are already in that boat with China imports.

Imran Khan himself kept asking IMF to forgive loans for poor countries after covid , why do you think that was? Because of this aspect of Pakistani economy, it has always been like this.

The global repercussions of COVID-19 affected every country, including India. Loans were necessary to sustain Pakistan's growth trajectory set in 2021-22, even if the economy wasn't overheating due to impending repayments. Imran Khan makes calls to world organizations regularly regarding many issues, like climate change, money laundering, social issues, etc, so his calling for the IMF to relax their conditions during the time of a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic isn't odd at all.

Though not related to the main discussion, I'd say Pakistan handled Covid really well. So the economy held up in that regard.

As for concerns about China, I've never quite understood the fearmongering surrounding economic ties with them. China has demonstrated receptiveness to Pakistani exports. The issue arises when corrupt politicians sign detrimental contracts, which Pakistan has done more frequently with countries like the US and Australia than with China.

Let's examine Pakistan's trade relations with China during the periods mentioned. In 2018, imports from China were around $11 billion, rising to $14.6 billion in 2022, marking a 32.7% increase. However, when considering the increase in exports to China, from $1.85 billion in 2018 to $2.51 billion in 2022, the proportional increase outweighs that of imports. This trend indicates the potential for maintaining a balanced trade relationship with the world's largest economy.

Since you've used Imran's words as an example, I'll share something he has stated as well, he noted that while China is willing to import from Pakistan, the country lacks high-return exportable goods. Textiles and agricultural products constitute minor exports to China. Thus, PTI's trade philosophy prioritized domestic industry development through machinery imports and favorable export laws.

When PDM ministers advocate for trade relations with India, they conveniently omit the damage inflicted on Pakistan's industries and exporters by their own policies. They understand that Pakistan's struggling industry would struggle to compete with India's low-cost manufacturing, potentially flooding the domestic market with Indian products and further harming local industries.

The idea is that you develop your industry first before pursuing trade. This strategy proves more effective with China than with India because the products Pakistan could export would be relatively similar to those already present in India's market but not in China's.

 

[JaDed]

The global repercussions of COVID-19 affected every country, including India. Loans were necessary to sustain Pakistan's growth trajectory set in 2021-22, even if the economy wasn't overheating due to impending repayments. Imran Khan makes calls to world organizations regularly regarding many issues, like climate change, money laundering, social issues, etc, so his calling for the IMF to relax their conditions during the time of a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic isn't odd at all.

Though not related to the main discussion, I'd say Pakistan handled Covid really well. So the economy held up in that regard.

As for concerns about China, I've never quite understood the fearmongering surrounding economic ties with them. China has demonstrated receptiveness to Pakistani exports. The issue arises when corrupt politicians sign detrimental contracts, which Pakistan has done more frequently with countries like the US and Australia than with China.

Let's examine Pakistan's trade relations with China during the periods mentioned. In 2018, imports from China were around $11 billion, rising to $14.6 billion in 2022, marking a 32.7% increase. However, when considering the increase in exports to China, from $1.85 billion in 2018 to $2.51 billion in 2022, the proportional increase outweighs that of imports. This trend indicates the potential for maintaining a balanced trade relationship with the world's largest economy.

Since you've used Imran's words as an example, I'll share something he has stated as well, he noted that while China is willing to import from Pakistan, the country lacks high-return exportable goods. Textiles and agricultural products constitute minor exports to China. Thus, PTI's trade philosophy prioritized domestic industry development through machinery imports and favorable export laws.

When PDM ministers advocate for trade relations with India, they conveniently omit the damage inflicted on Pakistan's industries and exporters by their own policies. They understand that Pakistan's struggling industry would struggle to compete with India's low-cost manufacturing, potentially flooding the domestic market with Indian products and further harming local industries.

The idea is that you develop your industry first before pursuing trade. This strategy proves more effective with China than with India because the products Pakistan could export would be relatively similar to those already present in India's market but not in China's.

I agree that it’s not beneficial for Pakistan to trade with India lets get that out of the way first.

Now coming to Pakistan China trade you are saying tbat a 20 billion $ deficit is not an issue for Pakistan?

China: export of goods to Pakistan 2022 | Statista

In 2022, China exported goods with a value of around 23.09 billion U.S.

www.statista.com

In 2022, Pakistan’s exports to China were recorded at $2.53 billion while China’s exports to Pakistan stood at $23.09 billion, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database.

 

[Cricket Warrior]

yes because these ganja brothers can do anything to expand their personal business.

 

[PakLFC]

Maybe once upon a time, definitely Yes. But since their economy has accelerated i dont think they bother as much. they will still drag Pakistans name in the mud for point scoring

Just wait. Something will happen in IoK before the Indian elections. It always does.

 

[rpant_gabba]

I agree that it’s not beneficial for Pakistan to trade with India lets get that out of the way first.

Now coming to Pakistan China trade you are saying tbat a 20 billion $ deficit is not an issue for Pakistan?

China: export of goods to Pakistan 2022 | Statista

In 2022, China exported goods with a value of around 23.09 billion U.S.

www.statista.com

In 2022, Pakistan’s exports to China were recorded at $2.53 billion while China’s exports to Pakistan stood at $23.09 billion, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database.

Thats 20B in a year in forex gap to one country. before they import petrol from gulf.

jeez they are up shot creek w/o a paddle

 

[Hextro]

I agree that it’s not beneficial for Pakistan to trade with India lets get that out of the way first.

Now coming to Pakistan China trade you are saying tbat a 20 billion $ deficit is not an issue for Pakistan?

China: export of goods to Pakistan 2022 | Statista

In 2022, China exported goods with a value of around 23.09 billion U.S.

www.statista.com

In 2022, Pakistan’s exports to China were recorded at $2.53 billion while China’s exports to Pakistan stood at $23.09 billion, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database.

Ah, the good old blue blob stats sites(referring to the ugly blue vertical rectangles these sites use). While Statista likely gathers data from relatively reliable sources, I've grown wary of using them due to discrepancies I've noticed in almost every dataset they present, including the one you linked. The stats I shared came directly from SBP (State Bank of Pakistan), the institution responsible for monitoring economic data, particularly trade data.

To illustrate the unreliability of these blue blob stats sites, consider Tradingeconomics, which also purports to source data from UN COMTRADE, as seen below.

Pakistan Imports from China was US$16.13 Billion during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Pakistan Imports from China - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on March of 2024.

Pakistan Imports from China - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 2009-2022 Historical

Pakistan Imports from China was US$16.13 Billion during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Pakistan Imports from China - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

The discrepancy between these two sites, despite supposedly having the same source, underscores the unreliability of such platforms in providing accurate statistics.

That's precisely why I prefer quoting numbers directly from the source—the entities responsible for compiling the data.

I hope I was able to clear things up for you.

 

[Red-Indian]

Ah, the good old blue blob stats sites(referring to the ugly blue vertical rectangles these sites use). While Statista likely gathers data from relatively reliable sources, I've grown wary of using them due to discrepancies I've noticed in almost every dataset they present, including the one you linked. The stats I shared came directly from SBP (State Bank of Pakistan), the institution responsible for monitoring economic data, particularly trade data.

To illustrate the unreliability of these blue blob stats sites, consider Tradingeconomics, which also purports to source data from UN COMTRADE, as seen below.

Pakistan Imports from China - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 2009-2022 Historical

Pakistan Imports from China was US$16.13 Billion during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Pakistan Imports from China - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

The discrepancy between these two sites, despite supposedly having the same source, underscores the unreliability of such platforms in providing accurate statistics.

That's precisely why I prefer quoting numbers directly from the source—the entities responsible for compiling the data.

I hope I was able to clear things up for you.

Yep I never use Statista either. They're notoriously slipshod in their data collection.

In any case though, you're not disputing the direction of this analysis only the magnitude. Every country that's not a commodity exporter runs a massive trade deficit with China. We're talking about these $12B to $20B numbers for Pakistan but India's is likely $80B plus.

Whether you trade with India or not, it's not going make the slightest difference on that trade deficit. India doesn't manufacture a quarter of the stuff that China does and in most cases that it does, can't match the price. The only benefit to reviving trade between India and Pakistan would be around the margins - farmers in both border regions that have a surplus and would benefit, some energy trades etc. More goodwill building than actual economic benefit.

On the other hand, you're not going to reduce that deficit through export to China. No one does unless you suddenly find oil or some of those Chip materials. The focus should be on exporting to Europe and the States.

 

[JaDed]

Ah, the good old blue blob stats sites(referring to the ugly blue vertical rectangles these sites use). While Statista likely gathers data from relatively reliable sources, I've grown wary of using them due to discrepancies I've noticed in almost every dataset they present, including the one you linked. The stats I shared came directly from SBP (State Bank of Pakistan), the institution responsible for monitoring economic data, particularly trade data.

To illustrate the unreliability of these blue blob stats sites, consider Tradingeconomics, which also purports to source data from UN COMTRADE, as seen below.

Pakistan Imports from China - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 2009-2022 Historical

Pakistan Imports from China was US$16.13 Billion during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Pakistan Imports from China - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

The discrepancy between these two sites, despite supposedly having the same source, underscores the unreliability of such platforms in providing accurate statistics.

That's precisely why I prefer quoting numbers directly from the source—the entities responsible for compiling the data.

I hope I was able to clear things up for you.

Fair point but the deficit is still large enough and has been getting larger.

 

[Hextro]

In any case though, you're not disputing the direction of this analysis only the magnitude. Every country that's not a commodity exporter runs a massive trade deficit with China. We're talking about these $12B to $20B numbers for Pakistan but India's is likely $80B plus.

While Pakistan currently runs a deficit with China, there's still potential to reduce, or at least proportionally address, this deficit, as I've demonstrated with evidence in a previous comment.

Whether you trade with India or not, it's not going make the slightest difference on that trade deficit. India doesn't manufacture a quarter of the stuff that China does and in most cases that it does, can't match the price.

Location is crucial here. The border regions of China neighboring Pakistan are economically weaker than mainland China and lack efficient transport infrastructure to deliver goods through rugged terrain. In contrast, India shares a direct border with Pakistan, meaning manufacturers and exporters there incur fewer expenses to access the market. Simply put, no matter how competitively priced Chinese products are, Indian products are likely to be even cheaper.

Additionally, India's overall lower cost of goods due to lower incomes further compounds this advantage. But let's not delve too deeply into the nerdy details.

On the other hand, you're not going to reduce that deficit through export to China. No one does unless you suddenly find oil or some of those Chip materials. The focus should be on exporting to Europe and the States.

Alternatively, you could boost your exports at a faster rate than your imports, a feat Pakistan achieved in 2022(trade with China) despite lacking an advanced manufacturing sector. This aligns with Imran Khan's philosophy of prioritizing the development of high-value exportable goods over subsidizing non-productive industries.

Note that I'm talking about percentage increase, not sum.

The only benefit to reviving trade between India and Pakistan would be around the margins - farmers in both border regions that have a surplus and would benefit, some energy trades etc. More goodwill building than actual economic benefit.

Did you know that Pakistan and India used to engage in significant trade before PTI came into power? It was only when PTI came in that the trade died off.

In 2018, Pakistan exported $247 million worth of goods to India, while India exported $2 billion worth to Pakistan. India holds an 8X advantage in these trades. For comparison, China's advantage is less than 6X, and it was diminishing. This so-called 'goodwill' you're suggesting appears to have come at a hefty cost to Pakistan's trade balance, and if expanded, it has the potential to hurt Pakistan far more than trading with China would.

Numbers Source - SBP

 

[Red-Indian]

While Pakistan currently runs a deficit with China, there's still potential to reduce, or at least proportionally address, this deficit, as I've demonstrated with evidence in a previous comment.


Alternatively, you could boost your exports at a faster rate than your imports, a feat Pakistan achieved in 2022(trade with China) despite lacking an advanced manufacturing sector. This aligns with Imran Khan's philosophy of prioritizing the development of high-value exportable goods over subsidizing non-productive industries.

Note that I'm talking about percentage increase, not sum.

To start with, I think you have to be careful with SBP numbers. There's a growing gap between what China's reporting as exports to Pakistan through the Comtrade database and what the SBP's reporting as imports. The Pakistan Business Council have called it out as well and I'm no expert but suspect it has something to do with SBP using payment data while Chinese companies use actual value of invoicing. So maybe long term credit lines offered by Chinese government companies through the government are the difference?

The reduction in gap is possible in theory but the fact is you yourself acknowledge you're talking percentage not sum. As you no doubt know, a 5% increase on 14B is bigger than 25% on 2.5B (using your SBP numbers). China just doesn't import enough to really make a significant dent on that deficit. Europe and the States on the other hand import plenty since manufacturing is decimated there. What would really really help on the Balance of Trade is accelerating FDI from China especially in export oriented manufacturing compared to investments in infrastructure, Power etc. that have come in so far which cater more to the domestic market. China is starting to struggle with labour costs in some labour-intensive industries and this could be an opportunity for Pakistan to target and tempt those industries to a 'friendly country' with low labour costs.

Location is crucial here. The border regions of China neighboring Pakistan are economically weaker than mainland China and lack efficient transport infrastructure to deliver goods through rugged terrain. In contrast, India shares a direct border with Pakistan, meaning manufacturers and exporters there incur fewer expenses to access the market. Simply put, no matter how competitively priced Chinese products are, Indian products are likely to be even cheaper.

Additionally, India's overall lower cost of goods due to lower incomes further compounds this advantage. But let's not delve too deeply into the nerdy details.
Did you know that Pakistan and India used to engage in significant trade before PTI came into power? It was only when PTI came in that the trade died off.

In 2018, Pakistan exported $247 million worth of goods to India, while India exported $2 billion worth to Pakistan. India holds an 8X advantage in these trades. For comparison, China's advantage is less than 6X, and it was diminishing. This so-called 'goodwill' you're suggesting appears to have come at a hefty cost to Pakistan's trade balance, and if expanded, it has the potential to hurt Pakistan far more than trading with China would.

Numbers Source - SBP

I can't debate too much there. In the short term, there's not much case for Pakistan opening up imports from India. Whatever's truly essential like pharmaceuticals, some fertilisers and chemicals get transhipped through Dubai anyway for a slightly higher cost. Best to let it lie for a while till Pakistani industry is more mature.

 

[Hextro]

To start with, I think you have to be careful with SBP numbers. There's a growing gap between what China's reporting as exports to Pakistan through the Comtrade database and what the SBP's reporting as imports. The Pakistan Business Council have called it out as well and I'm no expert but suspect it has something to do with SBP using payment data while Chinese companies use actual value of invoicing. So maybe long term credit lines offered by Chinese government companies through the government are the difference?

I thought we were over this already. Just say that you want a more "complete" source, one that preferably fits the argument you are trying to make, I won't be able to provide that. Instead, I'll share figures from PBS (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics).

During jul-jun, 2021-22 Imports were $21 Billion while exports were $3.2 Billion. It is worth noting that according to PBS, China's total share of Pakistan's imports decreased while its share of Pakistan's exports increased. supporting my initial point of stabilizing the trade balance as time goes on with aggressive export-oriented policies.

PBS is the authority in Pakistan regarding these matters, and their data collection methodology should alleviate any doubts. It's worth noting that PBS includes additional parameters in their dataset compared to SBP, perhaps addressing your concerns. However, it's evident that both sources only consider the import and export of goods, not services, despite the significant jump in Pakistan's services exports during the periods under discussion.

The Pakistan Business Council have called it out as well

I'm uncertain about the credentials of the PBC you're referring to. However, organizations directly involved in trade matters, like SBP and PBS, typically hold greater authority and authenticity in providing accurate data. The same goes for "Comtrade", I don't know from where or how they get their data.

The reduction in gap is possible in theory but the fact is you yourself acknowledge you're talking percentage not sum. As you no doubt know, a 5% increase on 14B is bigger than 25% on 2.5B (using your SBP numbers). China just doesn't import enough to really make a significant dent on that deficit.

You don't necessarily need to fully close the gap. Other sources like remittances can help stabilize your Balance of Payments, ensuring it remains manageable. While leaving too much room can be precarious, it doesn't necessarily lead to a crisis.

Europe and the States on the other hand import plenty since manufacturing is decimated there. What would really really help on the Balance of Trade is accelerating FDI from China especially in export oriented manufacturing compared to investments in infrastructure, Power etc. that have come in so far which cater more to the domestic market. China is starting to struggle with labour costs in some labour-intensive industries and this could be an opportunity for Pakistan to target and tempt those industries to a 'friendly country' with low labour costs.

Cutting down on trade relations also diminishes potential investment opportunities for a country. Currently, there isn't a significant conflict of interest between China and Pakistan. Unlike the US, which may oppose Pakistan's political choices, China is primarily concerned with project timelines and returns on investments. As long as these aspects are met, China will keep investing. So to purposefully get on their bad side is not a good idea.

That's all for now. There were a few more points I wanted to address but there are more interesting things happening right now that demand my immediate attention.

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Any progress without talks on Kashmir would be futile and abominable.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

Any progress without talks on Kashmir would be futile and abominable.

Pakistan is no longer a stakeholder in Kashmir. At least from a GOI perspective. GOI sees it as an internal matter only.

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Pakistan is no longer a stakeholder in Kashmir. At least from a GOI perspective. GOI sees it as an internal matter only.

That is the real bone of contention.

 

[FearlessRoar]

IAF reveals what led to accidental BrahMos firing into Pakistan: ‘Combat connectors…’​

The accidental firing of a BrahMos supersonic missile in March two years ago – the missile landed in Pakistan – was due to its combat connectors ‘staying connected to the junction box,’ leading to the BrahMos being misfired, the Indian Air Force (IAF) informed the Delhi high court on Friday, according to The Economic Times.

This is the first time that the IAF has revealed the reason behind the incident, which took place on March 9, 2022. Islamabad had lodged its protest with New Delhi the next day.

“The combat crew, (despite) knowing that that the combat connectors of combat missiles are connected to the junction box, failed to intervene to prevent the Mobile Autonomous Launcher commander from committing an unsafe act of launching the Combat Missile, resulting in a launch into the neighbouring nation, thereby causing a potential threat to any airborne/ground object/personnel,” the IAF noted in its reply to the high court.

The incident caused a loss to the tune of ₹25 crore to the government exchequer, it said, adding that the Indian Air Force's ‘reputation was damaged as well.’ The force also described the incident as one which had the ‘effect of affecting the relations’ between India and Pakistan.

The Court of Inquiry (CoI), set by the IAF days after the misfire, had examined as many as 16 witnesses, and found Group Captain Saurabh Gupta, Squadron Leader Pranjal Singh, and Wing Commander Abhinav Sharma – all members of the Combat Team – responsible for ‘various acts of omission and commission leading to the firing of the missile.’

It was in response to Wing Commander Sharma's petition, that the IAF submitted its reply in the high court. Responding to the Wing Commander ascribing blame on Air Commodore JT Kurien, it termed his allegations as ‘conjectures, surmises, baseless, and without any substantiating evidence.’

The Indian Air Force also dismissed Sharma's contention that he was ‘in no position to avert the firing of the missile.’

IAF reveals what led to accidental BrahMos firing into Pakistan: ‘Combat connectors…’

In a reply to the Delhi high court, the IAF disclosed for the first time, the reason behind the March 2022 incident.

www.hindustantimes.com

 

[FearlessRoar]

It shows how poorly the Indian Air Force operates its mechanisms.

 

[cricketjoshila]

Why will India be interested in any talks?

The GoI wants no talks no tours no nothing to do with Pakistan.

GoI has no interest.

Any progress without talks on Kashmir would be futile and abominable.

That is the real bone of contention.

 

[Hitman]

Why will India be interested in any talks?

The GoI wants no talks no tours no nothing to do with Pakistan.

GoI has no interest.

Also, it was GoP that suspended trade ties with India. And what have we lost out on since then? Basically nothing.

I still want good relations with Pakistan simply because they are our neighbour, and between the choice of having good relations or bad relations with any one of our neighbours, I'll always choose the former. But sorry to say, not at the cost of Kashmir. Kashmir is something we shouldn't even talk about either with Pakistan or any other country in the world.

 

[cricketjoshila]

Also, it was GoP that suspended trade ties with India. And what have we lost out on since then? Basically nothing.

I still want good relations with Pakistan simply because they are our neighbour, and between the choice of having good relations or bad relations with any one of our neighbours, I'll always choose the former. But sorry to say, not at the cost of Kashmir. Kashmir is something we shouldn't even talk about either with Pakistan or any other country in the world.

Modi government has shown we lose nothing by not talking to Pakistan.

I find no reason to reverse that unless we have something substantial to gain.

 

[hassan918]

Defence minster hopeful of thaw in Islamabad-New Delhi ties after Indian elections​

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif on Monday expressed hopes for betterment in bilateral ties with India after the neighbour comes out of its election phase commencing from April 19 and ending in June.

Regional arch-rivals — Islamabad and New Delhi — have a long history of strained relations, primarily due to Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) dispute which led to several wars while tensions usually rise on the occasions of countrywide elections in India.

“Our relations with India could be improved after elections there,” the defence minister expressed his views while speaking to reporters outside the Parliament House in Islamabad, adding that Pakistan and India ties have its "own background".

As the country which borders with China, India, Afghanistan, and Iran witnessed tensions with other neighbours, except for China, following crossborder attacks from Iran and Afghanistan, Asif is hopeful for a turn of event in terms of improvement of bilateral ties with New Delhi after the neighbour completes its upcoming election phase.

It is noteworthy to mention here that India will begin voting in phases starting April 19 to elect a new parliament, the world's largest election in which nearly one billion people are eligible to cast ballots, Reuters reported.

The election pits two-term strongman Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his regional allies against a bickering alliance of two dozen opposition parties, with surveys suggesting a comfortable win for Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Epicentre of recent wave of terrorism in Pakistan is Afghanistan until the neighbouring country takes decisive action against the banned outfit Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) safe havens there.

The defence minister said that he, along with a high-level delegation, visited Afghanistan to request the Taliban government there to take effective steps to stop terrorism. However, the solution proposed by Kabul was not practically possible, he added.

“Our options are now reducing day-by-day for the neighbour due to fluctuation in Afghan interim government’s attitude towards Pakistan,” Asif said. He added that Pakistan has always stood besides Afghanistan, rendered sacrifices for them, and even fought wars with them.

He stressed treatment of Pak-Afghan border like other borders around the globe which restricts cross-border movement to visa holders under international laws.

He was of the view that the movement of people from Afghanistan without visas allows terrorists to enter Pakistan.

He also signalled on behalf of the federal government taking concrete steps in the coming days to the complete elimination of terrorism.

Elaborating on ongoing probe into the attack on Chinese nationals in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Asif said that joint investigation teams of Pakistan and China found some leads, and they would soon dig up all facts regarding the terrorist attack.

Five Chinese citizens, including a woman, and a Pakistani driver were killed when their vehicle was attacked in Shangla's Besham city as a suicide bomber crashed his explosives-laden vehicle into the car carrying the victims on March 26.

To a question, the minister replied that Islamabad is successfully fulfilling targets of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), however, the government would be able to provide relief to the nation after at least 1.5 years.

He detailed that cases related to tax recovery worth Rs2,700 are currently pending, whereas, billions of rupees are being drained from the national exchequer due to electricity and gas theft. He, however, was optimistic of providing relief to the masses within next six months by taking effective moves.

To another question regarding restrictions on the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project, Asif replied that the United States should give an alternative solution to fulfilling energy needs of the country. He added that Washington must have to consider weak economic situation of Islamabad as the country reserves right to purchase gas on low prices from its neighbour.

Source: GEO

 

[FearlessRoar]

There is no doubt that India has been sending terrorists to Pakistan for quite some time, causing unrest.

 

[FearlessRoar]

Saudi crown prince meets Pakistani premier, stresses India-Pakistan dialogue​

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said dialogue was needed to resolve heightened friction between arch-rivals Pakistan and India during a meeting in Riyadh with visiting Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Sharif was making his first overseas visit since winning power in elections in February. He met with bin Salman on Sunday.

"The two sides stressed the importance of dialogue between Pakistan and India to resolve the outstanding issues between the two countries, especially the Jammu and Kashmir dispute to ensure peace and stability in the region," a joint statement released by Pakistan's foreign office and the Saudi government said.

The disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir is claimed in full, though ruled in part by both India and Pakistan since independence from Britain in 1947, with the neighbours having fought two of their three wars over it.

Always-fragile relations between India and Pakistan have worsened since a 2019 suicide bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir was traced to Pakistan-based militants, leading New Delhi to carry out an airstrike on what it said was a militant base in Pakistan.

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Friday that India would enter Pakistan to kill anyone who escapes over the border after trying to carry out militant activities in the country.

The minister was speaking a day after Britain's Guardian newspaper published a report stating the Indian government had killed about 20 people in Pakistan since 2020 as part of a broader plan to eliminate militants residing on foreign soil.

India has longstanding friendly relations with Arab countries including Saudi Arabia, which have strengthened under Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is widely expected to win a third term in office in elections starting April 19.

Sharif and bin Salman had also discussed expediting a planned $5 billion investment package, which cash-strapped Pakistan desperately needs to shore up its current account deficit and signal to the International Monetary Fund that it can continue to met requirements for foreign financing that has been a key demand in previous bailout packages.

Pakistan said in January it had credible evidence linking Indian agents to the killing of two of its citizens on its soil. India said it was "false and malicious" propaganda.

https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-crown-prince-meets-pakistani-premier-stresses-india-pakistan-dialogue-2024-04-08/

 

[FearlessRoar]

Kick this evil minded dictator Modi out of Indian politics and everything will be fine.

 

[BouncerGuy]

Pakistan seeks to heal ties with India

Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on Thursday he started consultations with stakeholders on the resumption of trade ties with India in yet another sign of the government’s eagerness to seek rapprochement with the neighboring country.

Dar told reporters at the Foreign Office that he had already begun discussions with the business community to build consensus on the thorny issue. Once consensus was built among the business community, he added, he would then start a consultation process with other stakeholders.

Any decision on the reopening of the trade would be taken after the input from all the relevant stakeholders, he said.

Dar first hinted at the possibility of resumption of trade ties with India last month during a press conference in London. He was of the view that the business community in Pakistan wanted the resumption of trade ties between Pakistan and India.

His statement drew criticism from opposition ranks and critics, who termed it ill-timed. However, Dar on Thursday defended his earlier remarks, stating that many businessmen told him that they were importing goods from India through a third country, which cost them more, and hence they were in favor of the resumption of direct trade ties between the two countries.

Islamabad severed trade ties with New Delhi in the aftermath of India’s decision to revoke the special status of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region in August 2019. Since then, Pakistan has consistently maintained that normalization would happen only after Delhi reverted to the pre-August 5, 2019 status quo.

There were efforts, however, in the past to partially reopen trade, first during the time of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government and second time when the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) was in charge.

In March 2021, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet gave a go-ahead to partially reopen trade with India. Then Prime Minister Imran Khan, who held the additional charge of the commerce minister, approved the ECC decision. However, the proposal was shot down by the prime minister at the federal cabinet after some members termed the move as political suicide.

The resumption of trade was part of behind-the-scene efforts by the two sides to normalize their relationship. The secret diplomacy earlier led to the renewal of the 2003 ceasefire deal along the Line of Control (LoC).

There was another push to reopen trade with India after the PTI government was replaced by the coalition government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Then Finance Minister Dr Miftah Ismail got the go-ahead from the prime minister to import tomatoes and onions from India to tackle the rising inflation.

Miftah told The Review show on Express News recently that in one of the international conferences he bumped into the Indian foreign minister. During that brief conversation, he expressed Pakistan’s intention to reopen trade with India. Miftah said the Indian foreign minister had told him that he would speak to the government. “However, he would never get back to me,” Miftah added.

Observers believe that the hard-line government of India may not be keen to restore trade links with Pakistan. They are also of the view that any progress on trade or other ties would happen after the Indian general elections. India is scheduled to go for national elections in 7 phases over the next two months. The new government would take charge in June.

Dar’s statement on the possibility of resumption of trade with India indicated the longstanding view of three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who always pushed for friendly ties with the neighboring country.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Dar confirmed to the reporters that his Afghan counterpart invited him to visit Kabul. The invitation was extended last month when Afghan Interim Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi telephoned him after he was appointed foreign minister.

Dar insisted that engagement was the way forward to resolve any issues. He said he would travel to Kabul provided the prime minister and other stakeholders gave the go-ahead.

Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been tense for months over the unresolved issue of banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The continued cross-border terrorist attacks have pushed Pakistan to limit its engagement with the Kabul regime.

Islamabad has taken a series of measures including repatriation of undocumented Afghans, plugging loopholes in the Afghan transit facility, and other measures to put pressure on the Taliban government. However, those efforts made little impact as terrorist groups continued to target from across the border ambassador US Ambassador Donald Blome held a meeting with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on Thursday to delve into recent developments in the region.

Acting spokesperson for the US Mission, Thomas Montgomery, conveyed the essence of the dialogue in a statement issued shortly after the meeting without specifically mentioning the recent regional events.

Ambassador Blome reiterated the United States' unwavering commitment to collaborating closely with the government and the people of Pakistan. He underscored that ensuring prosperity and security for Pakistan remains among the highest priorities for the United States.

SOURCE: EXPRESS TRIBUNE

 

[FearlessRoar]

Pakistan rebuts backdoor diplomacy with India

Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said that there was no back channel diplomacy going on between Pakistan and India to normalize bilateral trade, ARY News reported quoting MoFA.

In her weekly press briefing, the spokesperson told the media that Pakistan was witnessing a surge in provocative statements from the Indian leaders asserting unwarranted claims on the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). Pakistan rejects the Indian claims as fueled by hyper-nationalism with inflammation rhetoric, such claims pose threats to regional peace and stability.

She urged the Indian politicians to cease the practice of dragging Pakistan into their internal discourse aimed at gaining electoral motives.

She said that despite Indian rhetoric and assertions, IIOJK remained an internationally recognized disputed territory as the UN Security Council’s resolutions clearly outlined that final status would be determined by the will of the Kashmiri people through a free plebiscite.

“India would be wise to help implement those resolutions instead of harboring delusion of grandeur,” she remarked.

The spokesperson also condemned the ongoing vilification, stigmatization and victimization of Muslims and other minorities in India.

She said that Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif is scheduled to attend a special meeting of the World Economic Forum on “Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for Development” in Riyadh on April 28-29.

The spokesperson told the media that the prime minister, accompanied by Foreign Minister Senator Ishaq Dar, would travel to the Kingdom at the invitation of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and WEF Founder and Executive Chairman Klaus Schwab.

She said that the high-level participation in the Forum would provide an opportunity to highlight Pakistan’s priorities in global health architecture, inclusive growth, regional collaboration and balance between growth and energy consumption, besides interacting with the participating world leaders and heads of international orgnisations.

The prime minister will visit Gambia to attend the 15th session of the Islamic Summit Conference under the slogan “Enhancing Unity and Solidarity through Dialogue for Sustainable Development,” on May 4-5, 2024 in Banjul, the capital city of Gambia.

The OIC summit is being held at a critical time when the Israeli atrocities in Gaza continued unabated where the Muslim world leaders will deliberate on the situation in Palestine.

She said that Prime Minister Shehbaz would express Pakistan’s grave concern on genocide in Gaza, advocate for their right to self-determination, the imperative of solidarity, besides deliberating on Islamophobia, terrorism, and the challenges faced by the world, particularly the Muslim world.

The prime minister will also hold bilateral meetings with the Muslim world leaders.

The OIC Summit will be preceded by the preparatory meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers on May 2-3 to be attended by Foreign Minister Dar, who will also hold bilateral meetings.

Apprising the media of the visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, she said during the interactions, both sides agreed to strengthen economic and cultural cooperation, turn the bilateral borders into borders of peace and cooperation, fast-track the negotiations on Free Trade Agreement and release each other’s prisoners.

Asked about the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project, she said it was discussed during President Raisi’s visit and also featured in the joint statement. She said Pakistan had significant energy needs and was exploring options for its import.

She said Pakistan had noted the statements from the US authorities about the Pakistan-Iran trade and was engaged with the US and discussed all aspects of the energy needs.

She told the media that a high-level delegation of China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) led by Chairman Luo Zhaohui visited Pakistan and met Prime Minister Shehbaz and other leadership wherein both sides agreed to accelerate the projects being executed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Highlighting the situation in Gaza and the discovery of two mass graves, Spokesperson Baloch called for investigation and fixing of responsibility for the Israeli war crimes, immediate and unconditional ceasefire, lifting of the siege and unhindered access to humanitarian aid.

Coming to the US Country Report on Human Rights Practices, the spokesperson reiterates the rejection as it had flawed methodology.

Pakistan rebuts backdoor diplomacy with India

ISLAMABAD: Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said that there was no back channel diplomacy going on between Pakistan and India to normalize

arynews.tv

 

[Markhor]

Evolve ? I think the word devolve is more appropriate.

 

[BouncerGuy]

Trade with India suspended due to heavy duties, says Dar

Trade ties between Pakistan and India have remained suspended since 2019 due to imposition of heavy duties by New Delhi on imports from Pakistan after the Pulwama attack, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told the National Assembly in written reply to a question on Saturday.

Mr Dar was referring to a suicide attack on a bus carrying soldiers in Indian-occupied Kashmir on Feb 14, 2019, in which 40 personnel lost their lives.

“India decided to impose 200 per cent duty on imports from Pakistan, suspended the Kashmir bus service and trade across the Line of Control,” he said.

The reply was over a question by Sharmila Faruqui seeking details about challenges being faced by Pakistan in its relations with neighbouring countries.

Mr Dar highlighted the challenges confronting Pakistan in its relations with India, Afghanistan and Iran. “We have consistently advocated constructive engagement and result-oriented dialogue to resolve all outstanding issues, including the core issue of Jammu and Kashmir.

“But India’s intransigence and retrogressive actions have vitiated the atmosphere and impeded the prospects of peace and cooperation,” Mr Dar added.

He said that India continued its efforts to consolidate its occupation of held Kashmir and unleashed a wave of oppression on hapless Kashmiris. “India’s belligerence poses a serious challenge to efforts for normalisation of relations.”

The foreign minister said India had engineered acts of subversion in Pakistan and the “onus is now on Delhi to take steps for the creation of an environment that is conducive to peace and dialogue”.

Afghan ties

Regarding Afghanistan, Mr Dar said Pakistan believes that a peaceful and stable Afghanistan is a strategic imperative for Pakistan.

“Pakistan has consistently remained engaged with the interim Afghan government, neighbouring countries and the international community to achieve the objective of peace and stability in Afghanistan,” the reply said.

But, the foreign minister regretted, “terrorism from Afghanistan has emerged as a major challenge” for Pakistan over the last several years in the shape of attacks by the TTP and its affiliates based in Afghanistan.

“Freedom of movement enjoyed by the TTP there has hampered efforts to improve bilateral relations,” Mr Dar said.

SOURCE: DAWN

 

[Cricket Warrior]

It depends on how Modi Sahib runs his election campaign. If he continues to push the conventional anti Pakistan narrative then things will surely remain the same.