ICC World Cup 2019 : Points table, Net Run Rates, qualifying scenarios & Stats thread

[LegendAli]

Andy Zaltzman

Test Match Special statistician

The absolute key for Pakistan is to win the toss because if they bowl first - even if they bowl Bangladesh out for nought they couldn't overtake on run-rate. They have to bat first and score 480, then bowl out Bangladesh for 160, they need to win by about 320 runs.

Scoring 450, Bangla out on 130 is far-fetched but certainly possible.

Toss is crucial of course, blahhh forget it all this is possible arghhh the life of a Pakistan cricket fan, ifs and buts.

 

[Manager101]

Scenarios for Pakistan to Qualify:
Score 350 and bowl them out for 38
Score 400 and bowl them out for 84
Score 450 and bowl them out for 129
Score 500 and bowl them out for 175

If we bowl first there is no mathematical chance

It feels like we are the South Africa of 1992 world cup that lost the semi-final match due to rubbish DLS system of that era.

No chance.

 

[Dr_Bassim]

Scenarios for Pakistan to Qualify:
Score 350 and bowl them out for 38
Score 400 and bowl them out for 84
Score 450 and bowl them out for 129
Score 500 and bowl them out for 175

If we bowl first there is no mathematical chance

Somewhere between 400 to 450 looks the likely sweet spot for Pakistan.

 

[mon858]

Somewhere between 400 to 450 looks the likely sweet spot for Pakistan.

save the sweets for bakra eid. even if we have the best batting day ever and get to 400+ that would mean pitch is patta also. that then means that there won't be help for bowlers to bowl a good batting side out for under 100. bangladesh bat quite deep and have posted around/above 300 few times already against top bowling sides in the competion.
long story short. its over. lets be happy with realistic performance we had in this world cup, go back and work on long-term and aim for better in 2023. end of story.

 

[Manager101]

save the sweets for bakra eid. even if we have the best batting day ever and get to 400+ that would mean pitch is patta also. that then means that there won't be help for bowlers to bowl a good batting side out for under 100. bangladesh bat quite deep and have posted around/above 300 few times already against top bowling sides in the competion.
long story short. its over. lets be happy with realistic performance we had in this world cup, go back and work on long-term and aim for better in 2023. end of story.

He was sarcastic bro.

 

[LegendAli]

save the sweets for bakra eid. even if we have the best batting day ever and get to 400+ that would mean pitch is patta also. that then means that there won't be help for bowlers to bowl a good batting side out for under 100. bangladesh bat quite deep and have posted around/above 300 few times already against top bowling sides in the competion.
long story short. its over. lets be happy with realistic performance we had in this world cup, go back and work on long-term and aim for better in 2023. end of story.

lol relax man.

 

[Pakpak]

save the sweets for bakra eid. even if we have the best batting day ever and get to 400+ that would mean pitch is patta also. that then means that there won't be help for bowlers to bowl a good batting side out for under 100. bangladesh bat quite deep and have posted around/above 300 few times already against top bowling sides in the competion.
long story short. its over. lets be happy with realistic performance we had in this world cup, go back and work on long-term and aim for better in 2023. end of story.

You need to send your sarcasm detector to the shop to be repaired yar

 

[lahoriyah1234]

How about win the last game and see off in a style. We were unlucky to be honest we deserved to be in semis. But time to move on and look for the future, time rebuild in some departments. Especially spin bowling and finding good middle order batsmen and some good openers, some good allrounders.

I would stick with Mickey and Replace Sarfraz with Harris sohail or Babar azam. Time for pakistan cricket to win test series in aus, sa, nzl and England again. WC is not the end of the World it will come again. Please stick with Mickey Arthur please, dont want pakistani coach, they are big headaches and will not develop any players.

Please also recruit Saqlain Mushtaq spin coach and possibly Wasim akram as a coach or bowling coach.

 

[GLORY OF '92]

Please guys. Even if we bat first we will collapse to 150 trying to get 450. It's over. Let the mourning commence.

 

[AAli98]

Somewhere between 400 to 450 looks the likely sweet spot for Pakistan.

You can bet tour bottom dollar pathetic safraz is going to win the toss & bowl first.

 

[NA]

Pakistan's situation right now is a bit unique, considering they have the chance to go really high up in points, missing out on semi-final spot only on NRR against a team they have beaten in the group stage. The next higher team (by one point) in semifinals which just scraped through was also beaten by Pakistan. Normally if a team does this much, it's in semi-finals and not standing outside looking in. A lot has been made about how Pakistan lost the plot against WI, and dig a large hole for themselves, but for me there were so many other factors (some pure bad luck and some lack of application) that landed Pakistan in this spot. Among them,

1) The loss against Australia. That game was completely under control, and then three batsmen threw their wicket for no reason, followed by a restless Sarfraz who only needed a calm demeanor, and no Haris Sohail to share the load. Even after all that, we came close to Australian total. We should have won that game.

2) Pakistan batting second in both Nzl and Afg game. You all have seen how hard it is when batting second late in a tournament with a team playing eight-nine games, to improve the NRR. There are opposing forces at work. Either you get the opponent out cheaply, but then you leave out many overs unplayed (at best) which can be considered as a lost potential for higher NRR, or they make more runs, which offsets any increase that comes from you batting more overs with higher NRR. That's the reason, it's impossible for Pakistan to catch up to Nzl in NRR when batting second now.

I have no doubts, that Pakistan would have beaten Afghanistan by a huge margin had they batted first, and I think we could have beaten Nzl as well by 40-50 runs (which 'd have impacted the NRR at twice the rate). Pak's NRR would still be lower than Nzl's but a margin of 50-70 runs would be enough in the final game, instead of 310+ difference needed now. Batting second in both matches mathematically made it harder to make large strides in NRR, when they were hugely needed.

3) Of course there were rain affected games. Pakistan had a relatively easier game affected, and Nzl shared the points against much stronger opponent.

These aren't excuses, rather attempts to understand why we ended up in this situation when potentially winning five of eight games.

There have been tournaments where fortunes favored us hugely. There had to be one like World Cup 2019, to balance the scales a bit.

 

[Cric_lover4487]

Pakistan's situation right now is a bit unique, considering they have the chance to go really high up in points, missing out on semi-final spot only on NRR against a team they have beaten in the group stage. The next higher team (by one point) in semifinals which just scraped through was also beaten by Pakistan. Normally if a team does this much, it's in semi-finals and not standing outside looking in. A lot has been made about how Pakistan lost the plot against WI, and dig a large hole for themselves, but for me there were so many other factors (some pure bad luck and some lack of application) that landed Pakistan in this spot. Among them,

1) The loss against Australia. That game was completely under control, and then three batsmen threw their wicket for no reason, followed by a restless Sarfraz who only needed a calm demeanor, and no Haris Sohail to share the load. Even after all that, we came close to Australian total. We should have won that game.

2) Pakistan batting second in both Nzl and Afg game. You all have seen how hard it is when batting second late in a tournament with a team playing eight-nine games, to improve the NRR. There are opposing forces at work. Either you get the opponent out cheaply, but then you leave out many overs unplayed (at best) which can be considered as a lost potential for higher NRR, or they make more runs, which offsets any increase that comes from you batting more overs with higher NRR. That's the reason, it's impossible for Pakistan to catch up to Nzl in NRR when batting second now.

I have no doubts, that Pakistan would have beaten Afghanistan by a huge margin had they batted first, and I think we could have beaten Nzl as well by 40-50 runs (which 'd have impacted the NRR at twice the rate). Pak's NRR would still be lower than Nzl's but a margin of 50-70 runs would be enough in the final game, instead of 310+ difference needed now. Batting second in both matches mathematically made it harder to make large strides in NRR, when they were hugely needed.

3) Of course there were rain affected games. Pakistan had a relatively easier game affected, and Nzl shared the points against much stronger opponent.

These aren't excuses, rather attempts to understand why we ended up in this situation when potentially winning five of eight games.

There have been tournaments where fortunes favored us hugely. There had to be one like World Cup 2019, to balance the scales a bit.

Cricket is a game of ifs and buts. Rohit Sharma survived 2 easy runout chances vs Pakistan. In last two innings, he was dropped early in the innings. Everytime he capitalized and scored a century. What if those catches/runout chances were taken?
If Braithwaite could have crosses 2 inches on boundary, Pak would be playing semi final.
You can't take it for granted that Pak would have defeated SL. Dont forget that SL defeated England. Pakistan should have tried improving NRR vs Afghanistan by chasing it down in 40 overs. But they were too scared of not losing,panicked and made it to last over thriller. To make matters worse, unluckily for Pakistan, Jason Roy got fit, Moeen Ali was kicked out and England finally found their mojo in the last part of the league stage.

 

[NA]

CPakistan should have tried improving NRR vs Afghanistan by chasing it down in 40 overs. But they were too scared of not losing,panicked and made it to last over thriller.

As I said before, chasing in 40 overs wouldn't have made things any different. Instead of 316, we may need a difference of 280-290.

Batting second against both Nzl and Afg messed up the chances of improving the NRR by substantial amount. That's just in the nature of math involved. I explained this a bit in my previous post.

 

[Arajit]

These aren't excuses, rather attempts to understand why we ended up in this situation when potentially winning five of eight games.

Fifth is yet to be won

 

[Revolution]

Somewhere between 400 to 450 looks the likely sweet spot for Pakistan.

Even score 500 is also possible

 

[RamLakhan]

Looks like the Semifinals position will be in this order: (Unless some drastic things happen)

Australia
India
England
NZ

Aus vs NZ, I am 90% confident Aus will win it... But I have 50:50 with England vs India (50 to England because they are playing at home & have a very balanced side compared to anytime in any world cup! 50 to India because they too have some good players especially the bowlers who can win matches on non-flat pitches and also England's choking history in World Cup knockouts!)

So it may well be Aus vs Eng or Aus vs India in the finals! I am really scared about facing Australia in finals, once they are in finals they will grow stronger/anti-choking monstrous position no matter whatever might be the strength/form of their current team! Would have preferred Australia to be knocked out in the first round or Quarterfinals at the most like in 2011...

 

[The Viper]

 

[Hasan123]

One thing I find funny is how people are blaming NRR like it's a given we will beat Bangladesh. Complain about NRR when we have beaten Bangladesh at least.

 

[nextover666666]

People should not blame the net run rate pak team made their own mistakes

Agaisnt West Indies when wickets were falling left right and centre we just needed someone to bat 50 overs , just hold their ground go for a run rate of 2 an over but play the 50 overs basic cricket which they did not do.

Agaisnt Australia pak were in a winning position and they blew it credit to Aussie but Pakistan gifted some wickets


Agaisnt India you win the toss and you put India to bet first I get the whole weather issue but still pak should have batted first. Secondly when pak were going at a decent rate the guy who was looking good Fakhar Zaman who could have gotten us close plays a stupid shot and gets out , not to mention the run out chance missed

So run rate has nothing to do with it we put ourself in this position all we needed was one decent Match and we would not be in this position

 

[Zeeraq]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I hate net run rate <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CWC19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CWC19</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PAKvsBANG?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PAKvsBANG</a></p>— Graeme Smith (@GraemeSmith49) <a href="https://twitter.com/GraemeSmith49/status/1147164023080849408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 5, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Corridor of Uncertainty]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Points then Head to Head then a duck worth Lewis system would be the way I would go for the next World Cup ... Net Run rates are garbage ... <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CWC19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CWC19</a></p>— Michael Vaughan (@MichaelVaughan) <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelVaughan/status/1147171330103623685?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 5, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Revolution]

Why people are bringing run rate now issue now? Why it is not opposed earlier.

 

[Syed1]

^Glad people are speaking out against this injustice. Pak are 4/4 while NZ are 0/3. NZ has lost to every one of the top 5 with India match rained off. Even their wins are scrappy and through luck. Yet NZ coast through to the semis because of smashing SL and Afg.

 

[miandadrules]

It’s ridiculous to cry foul now. The rules were the same for everyone and this time the cards didn’t fall for Pakistan.

If you put your destiny in the hands of others it’s absurd to think it will always go in your favour otherwise it’s an injustice.

 

[Mamoon]

^Glad people are speaking out against this injustice. Pak are 4/4 while NZ are 0/3. NZ has lost to every one of the top 5 with India match rained off. Even their wins are scrappy and through luck. Yet NZ coast through to the semis because of smashing SL and Afg.

Yes, Pakistan should have gone through based on your arbitrary criteria rather than the official system put in place by ICC.

 

[Syed1]

Yes, Pakistan should have gone through based on your arbitrary criteria rather than the official system put in place by ICC.

Not arbitrary criteria, head 2 head was the gold standard for most international tournaments. This NRR is only a measure of how badly you beat minnows and not what you do against the better sides. Anyways your team is in the semis time to celebrate. Jai Hind

 

[MRSN]

It’s ridiculous to cry foul now. The rules were the same for everyone and this time the cards didn’t fall for Pakistan.

If you put your destiny in the hands of others it’s absurd to think it will always go in your favour otherwise it’s an injustice.

Exactly. Pathetic stuff from some of the fans who are saying NZ were lucky and accusing other teams of fixing to kick us out. This is minnow level accusations. At the end of the day NZ calculated their journey well and they are in the top four. Pakistan played without any homework before such mega event and didn't for once thought how NRR could come to bit them in the end.

 

[Mamoon]

Not arbitrary criteria, head 2 head was the gold standard for most international tournaments. This NRR is only a measure of how badly you beat minnows and not what you do against the better sides. Anyways your team is in the semis time to celebrate. Jai Hind

You don’t get to decide. ICC opted for NRR and that is how it is. If the shoe was on the other foot and Pakistan had gone through thanks to NRR, would you be throwing a fit now?

 

[Mamoon]

Our moaning should be directed at Pakistan for losing to West Indies in 13.4 overs. That was what we produced after getting the best possible preparation for the World Cup. We got what we deserved, and we are also proving to be sour losers.

 

[miandadrules]

Our moaning should be directed at Pakistan for losing to West Indies in 13.4 overs. That was what we produced after getting the best possible preparation for the World Cup. We got what we deserved, and we are also proving to be sour losers.

Even then, they showed no initiative.

Cruised against New Zealand and crawled past Afghanistan.

Even today, the only time ever, they were given a free pass by the board, media and fans to tee off from the very first ball and they batted at 5 an over.

 

[MenInG]

 

[JibranAnsari]

Pakistan would have made the semi finals if pakistan had scored enough against west indies to drag the match to 44 overs.

What a nightmare that was.

 

[Aman]

Can we stop with the nonsense of H2H over NRR.

We don't deserve to make it through and have no form or confidence, it doesn't mean the formula is wrong. The reason we qualified was the wash out against India.

 

[MRSN]

Lol at our champs fans who were saying NZ is lucky to be in semis. They deserved and they proved they are not lucky team.

 

[Snatch]

Lol at our champs fans who were saying NZ is lucky to be in semis. They deserved and they proved they are not lucky team.

Only ignorant Pakistani fans said that though. The wise ones knew NZ always did just enough, and unlike Pakistan, they did enough to control their own destiny in making the semis. They were never at risk going into that last game of getting behind Pakistan on the NRR.

The other thing most knowledgeable fans will know is NZ were playing below their best this WC, and were always likely to come right with either bat or ball at some stage. Today it was with ball and in the field.

 

[Cricket lover 27]

The Net run rate issue

Ever since New Zealand qualified for semi finals on net run rate there have been multiple discussions on this forum of how unfair the rule was but to be honest we have been on the lucky side of NRR as well in our history.

In the 2010 World T 20 we qualified on NRR for the semi finals ironically knocking out New Zealand out of the tournament even though head to head New Zealand has won from Pakistan in the super 8’s.

I remember Pakistan was effectively knocked out of this tournament by losing 2 of it’s 3 matches in super 8’s when from out of nowhere New Zealand lost to England such that we qualified on NRR.

Moral of the story Sometimes it works for you and sometimes against you and NRR is the best decider for these kind of situations.

 

[Thephenom]

If New Zealand had beaten us and got thorough on head to head I would of accepted it straight away, I don’t believe net run rate is fair whoever you support!