Varun
Senior Test Player
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2012
- Runs
- 26,111
- Post of the Week
- 1
Is in any coincidence that the economy only moves forward when a BJP government is in power?
-
Contact the PP Team
Moody's upgrades India's rating after 14 years
- Thread starter Varun
- Start date
Is in any coincidence that the economy only moves forward when a BJP government is in power?
cricketjoshila
Test Captain
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Runs
- 47,985
- Post of the Week
- 1
No its not a coincidence.Its a fact.It just proves how pathetic Congress is.
Varun
Senior Test Player
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2012
- Runs
- 26,111
- Post of the Week
- 1
UPA II in particular was an utter joke from beginning to end. Completely stalled everything, and was ripe with a scam a month.
jusarrived
Test Debutant
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2005
- Runs
- 13,533
There is nothing surprising about it . The positives of Demonetisation , GST and other reforms will take a couple of years to show results . These are all short term pains for larger benefits .
Just few days back India jumped 30 places in World Bank's ease of doing business ranking , its nothing but a miracle to make that kind of jump for a country of Indias size known for being a very difficult place to do business, shows the kind of efforts this govt has taken .
Jumping 30 spots in the ease of doing business is a good achievement. But still a long way to go as majority of western places it's a lot lower than that, like some would be a day. I'm sure someday it will happpen and likely within the next 5 -10 years for sure
Hitman
Senior T20I Player
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2013
- Runs
- 17,345
Absolutely. Results don't come overnight, they take time. With all the damage that the toxic Congress has done all these years, it would be unrealistic to expect things to completely change in just 2-3 years time. What the current govt is doing, the results would be there to be seen in the coming years.
Reddy
Tape Ball Captain
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2017
- Runs
- 1,085
Modi days and this is just the start, the long term results will be even better. Anyway Mr Modi will rule for 10-15 yrs before taking retirement.
sensible-indian-fan
ODI Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2013
- Runs
- 35,587
- Post of the Week
- 3
The people whom I know in real life with a strong understanding of economics are speaking a different language compared to what's being projected in this thread.
TM Riddle
Test Debutant
- Joined
- May 3, 2012
- Runs
- 15,011
Can you elaborate a bit more on this as I myself am too divided on this issue? Although I believe GST is definitely a good step and will have long term benefits.
Thomaskutty
Local Club Regular
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2015
- Runs
- 1,616
Moody is being vague. Pretty much all the economists I've read say demonetisation was an unnecessary and futile move , even though the optics of it probably helped him politically - like the victorious UP elections. That includes modi supporter , Subramaniam Swamy.
GST is an excellent move but it was actually a Congress idea , which got a lot of opposition during the Manmohan years.
GST is an excellent move but it was actually a Congress idea , which got a lot of opposition during the Manmohan years.
CricketCartoons
Senior T20I Player
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2014
- Runs
- 17,584
17.73 lakh suspicious cases identified that do not match the tax profile.
Deposits worth Rs 3.68 lakh crore under suspicion.
2.24 lakh shell companies faced the axe.
Is that called futile?
jusarrived
Test Debutant
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2005
- Runs
- 13,533
Depends what key words you put in your google search . Most economists have been cautious on calling it a success or failure cos its impossible to gauge the impcat at this point , its a wiat and watch but the credit should be given for showing intent ti clean up our system . As for political gains , the guys who have been hit badly the most by both these moves are the business class traditionally BJP's vote bank .
GST was no ones idea , neither congress or BJP..its all about implementation .
And beyond these things there are a lot of reforms this govt has undertaken which moody seems to recognise a little late .
sensible-indian-fan
ODI Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2013
- Runs
- 35,587
- Post of the Week
- 3
As a layman, based on my interactions with others in my circle plus what I have been reading, here’s how I see it:
The problem with demonetisation is that not all black money is stored in cash. It’s also stored in the form of other assets and hidden so well that it’s hard to trace and bring the REAL offenders to justice.
As for those who have cash, when someone has 1,000 crores in black money that has been declared illegal, imagine his desperation level. There is a LOT at stake and he will use ALL the means, connections and loopholes to exchange the notes (if he has amassed 1000 crores in black money, he would have tons of connections). Imagine how much bribes he would be willing to give when he has everything to lose? It’s insane. And this isn’t even a major player.
Moreover, businessmen in general have a very extensive process to convert black money without getting caught. Those in the know say that politicians are kids in front of them in this aspect.
They used many shell companies to exchange the notes. The horse has bolted. Now govt can investigate but it remains to be seen how many real culprits and not scapegoats are brought to justice.
Leaving aside that, the fundamental issue with demonetization is that it created a massive cashflow problem for small and mid sized businesses which in turn had trouble paying its workers (the real underprivileged).
My dad’s close friend runs a big factory and his business suffered a lot as part of demonetization. He transferred money to their account but they couldn’t access quickly enough due to long queues and bank would run out of notes. These were poor people. Situation was so grim that he had to scramble to collect as much as cash as he could to buy them basic necessities for the month. It took a long while to sort this out. His business which used to make profits hand over fist is struggling to cover overheads now (though not all is due to demonetization).
Cashflow is king for business and by cutting that out, businesses and people at the ground level suffer a lot. When workers and contractors don’t get paid, work doesn’t get done. Companies lose money. Their suppliers get affected which in turn affects their employees. Its a snowball effect.
The problem with Modi Govt is that they neither have the brightest economic sense nor do they listen to others. People say Arun Jaitley the finance minister is an A grade idiot from day 1.
As for GST, I haven’t to this day met a person who said it was a bad idea. It’s a great idea. We need it. But the main criticism of it has been the way it has been rolled out.
You can’t launch GST like a marketing campaign where you first roll out and then tweak. That’s ok for a business strategy but not for policy making cos it affects a lot of people.
The tax rates were high...the filing system was frequent and complex….they were naive to believe that businesses would pay the taxes without raising the prices. Majority of the markets are so hyper competitive that businesses run on thin margins. The market regulates the price in here. If you raise tax exhorbitantly, customers will pay the price. Not the business owners.
In food industry which aren’t that price sensitive, the business owners have no incentive to cut down on losses when they have a ready made excuse to give. 5 star hotels have such huge loans and overheads to pay that they won’t cut it from their margins for sure.
There is a saying which goes like:
If you have to teach Johnny mathematics, you should not only know mathematics...but know Johnny too.
This is the issue here.
The govt rolls out stuff assuming things will work according to a certain theory without analyzing what will happen at the ground level. And that leads to problems.
GST is fine and it will do us a lot of good. My auditor was saying Modi government has made it much harder for tax evasion (relatively speaking) which is good (he wasn't happy with the filing system though). Sure, there are positives to the efforts taken by the govt but they have to plan GST better and not tweak it at the tax payer’s expense.
Personally what I have realized is that when it comes to certain issues, no matter what stance you take, there will be tons of people as well as articles to support your stance.
Take bitcoin for example. There are viewpoints ranging from how it’s a bubble which will die and never rise TO those who call it the future where the currency will be stabilized. And there are REALLY good points made by both the sides. No one really gives a guarantee on what will happen cos it’s all speculation with tons of key variables at the end of the day.
So where does the truth lie? We won’t know until we follow those who have a thorough knowledge of the current monetary system along with crypto currencies.
Same is with economics. So many variables. Things can change based on situations. For example, Modi Government got a blessing with crude oil price dropping crazily, a luxury Manmohan Singh government never had.
Right now, those in the trenches say that economy is bad. They don’t have good things to say about the govt at all. They talk about so many technical things that I am unable to mention here cos I am not knowledgeable about it.
Let’s see how things go from here and what action the govt takes.
CricketCartoons
Senior T20I Player
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2014
- Runs
- 17,584
Bro that is a honest account of your views. I know economics is your achilles heel, but you have access to some experts so I am always curious to know what they have to say about the economic policies.
True, demonetization had short term problems, especially for the underclass, and that is a very very valid criticism. That black money will still not be caught 100% is a very very weak argument, as it is always about incremental improvements..and more people in income tax net, and lakhs of shell companies caught is a huge positive.
The problem, which even experts are not immune from, is that their criticism is not policy based, but party based. Whether bjp, congress or commies, they support or complain based on the identity of those implementing the policies. In such a climate one is always cynical about criticism and praise, and has to look at many objective sources to get an idea. Just look at the recent comparison of GDP figures. Even Manmohan was being very dishonest when he was comparing GDP during UPA and NDA while conveniently ignoring the Inflation rate. Such is the level of honesty even among the so called experts, who put their political interests before objectivity. Or the recent malayali commies abusing Tom Moody because the namesake agency gave a good rating. criticism is good, and its space should not shrink, but it has been overtaken by political interests who are disingenuous and dishonest. Do you know any honest critics, especially in your circles, those people in the know. Would be interested to know what they have to say.
sensible-indian-fan
ODI Star
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2013
- Runs
- 35,587
- Post of the Week
- 3
Maybe you and I are on the same page but just want to clarify.
Demonetization affecting businesses and therefore poor people is not a mere short term issue. One of the MOST important aspect of an economy is to ensure small & mid sized business run because they generate employment at the ground level, help related businesses prosper, ensure people have money to buy essential goods which in turn helps those businesses prosper. It's a cyclic effect.
It's the heart of an economy. In fact, this is even more important than populist measures (that cost money) because this truly uplifts the lives of people.
So when you have to take a measure that would hit these businesses at it's heart, you need to have a bloody good reason for it as well as a rock solid plan to ensure you have considered all possibilities.
What the govt is doing is rolling out half baked plans and then justifying it by saying short term pain will be there, just doesn't cut it.
Critics aren't saying that. They are asking whether the effort was worth it for the price we are paying and whether it was planned well to ensure we keep damages to the minimum.
True.....let's see how well this goes and what comes out of it.
It's not like demonetization has had no benefits.
Some of the big benefits have been:
1. Widening of tax base (25% more) so more income for govt
2. Benami properties & suspicious transactions identified
3. Increased Digital transactions (yes it concerns only middle class and above but still it's a benefit) plus iccreased demand for credit cards (I consider them safer than debits cos you can contest fraudulent charges whereas in debit money goes out...credit cards lead to a monster called consumerism but that's another debate for another day)
All are admirable but the big question is whether this was worth it and whether the primary objective fulfilled?
A few more points which we we all need to ask ourselves:
1. Do you think those who are generating black money will now stop hoarding it now that demonetization has happened? They simply won't store it as liquid cash like before and instead invest it in gold, real estate under benami. Since they won't be stupid enough to hold cash (which PROS don't do anyways), they wouldn't need to exchange it later thus risking exposing themselves.
I highly doubt it.
In fact, one could argue poorly executed demonetization gave them the real motivation to convert their black into white and step up their game big time. People who are in business generally say that their greatest development usually came from facing adversity and sadly for crooks, this would only make them play the game carefully.
2. Black money will ALWAYS be there till political parties have to disclose their earnings and reveal sources down to the last digit.
Here's why:
When one of my relatives was heading a company, he had to regularly deal with politicians for government projects. He (along with the owner) of the company had to give sizable bribes to one of the most popular CMs of today (who will play a big role in 2019 national election). Even clean looking politicians take money cos you need money to run a party. They regularly used to give bribes to one of the most iconic BJP leaders too. It used to happen regularly that it's not even a big deal.
Now this is just one example.
Forget the national parties who have it more easier to do corruption and hide it.
Imagine the fringe parties who win state elections every 10 years....where would they get money from to survive and keep their party cadres?
Businessmen. And how will they fund these politicians?
Black money.
It's a vicious cycle. Add in corrupt society and you have a perfect setting for people to get things done.
3. On top of this, when someone like Raghuram Rajan who is world renowned for his ability to look into the ramifications of an economic decision like this, was against it, it throws up a red flag. I am not saying Raghuram Rajan can never be wrong but when he was so against it, it does weaken demo's case immensely.
To conclude:
What we really need is a tighter plan:
1. We need to improve our legal system. It's garbage now. A strong, non corrupt legal system that delivers quick judgement would create fear among businessmen. Fear and conditioning changes everything. It still won't eradicate black money fully but when judgments are quick and guilty gets punished, that creates a ripple effect. And unlike demo where its a one time thing, this will work continually.
2. Stronger implementation of the tax laws. We must figure out a way to prevent companies from fudging numbers, paying off officials and running their scams. I believe there is improvement in this regard but we may have a long way to go. We have to figure out the balance between having a smoother process while being thorough (too much complication only leads to more corruption).
There may be other steps which are needed to make it harder for businesses to keep black money. This is a big issue which needs a lot of thought.
As for demo, yes we can discuss all day about its pros and cons. It definitely had its uses but did it manage to achieve its primary stated objective?
That looks like a no. Even if people get caught in this purge, it won't stop others from hoarding black money, instead it will just encourage them to get better at their game because after all, it's a one time thing.
And therein lies the biggest issue with it.
Couch Cricketer
First Class Star
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2007
- Runs
- 3,512
Most of the things Modi government has implemented will actually show results good or bad 5-10 years from now. Modi reminds me somewhat of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew who by force pulled his country from the 3rd world to the 1st world. All the things that Modi is promising in terms of corruption and development sound good if he can implement it all. Lee Kuan Yew though had absolute control over the media so he could control the narrative completely If Modi could do the same he could go down as one of the greatest statesman of all times. This is coming from a Pakistani guy that really doesn't care for Modi or his communally divisive politics but at the same time I do get what he trying to do when it comes economic sense. And why he could be something great for indian economy and its people.
Varun
Senior Test Player
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2012
- Runs
- 26,111
- Post of the Week
- 1
Singapore is a dot on the map. It's like playing SimCity with the cheat codes on.
India is a whole different proposition altogether.
Some above comments are plain wishful and really some unnecessarily criticism. Is there a perfect way to implement GST or any reforms? That's the reality and even experts agree this was the least "bad" GST put forward by this government. There will be disruptions if you want to change the status quo.
The key difference with this government is they have a vision, and a long term thinking. Previous Congress governments were selfish and only planned till the next election, thus 5 years and that is the single biggest reason for many poor planning and infrastructure in India. They never took the initiative in doing GST, OROP, Triple Talaq despite such things being talked for many years. So it's hilarious when Congress wants some credit.
The key difference with this government is they have a vision, and a long term thinking. Previous Congress governments were selfish and only planned till the next election, thus 5 years and that is the single biggest reason for many poor planning and infrastructure in India. They never took the initiative in doing GST, OROP, Triple Talaq despite such things being talked for many years. So it's hilarious when Congress wants some credit.
Produce Demonetisation-Related Records, Supreme Court Tells Centre, RBI
The Supreme Court on Wednesday directed the Centre and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to put on record relevant records relating to the government's 2016 decision to demonetise currency notes of ₹ 1,000 and ₹ 500 denomination for its perusal.
Reserving its verdict on a batch of pleas challenging the Centre's 2016 decision, a five-judge constitution bench headed by Justice SA Nazeer heard the submissions from Attorney General R Venkataramani, RBI's counsel, and the petitioners' lawyers, including senior advocates P Chidambaram and Shyam Divan.
The Supreme Court directed the parties to file written submissions by December 10.
"Heard. Judgment reserved. Learned counsels of the Union of India and Reserve Bank of India are directed to produce the relevant records," the bench, also comprising Justices B R Gavai, A S Bopanna, V Ramasubramanian, and B V Nagarathna, said.
The AG submitted before the bench that he will submit relevant records in a sealed cover.
The top court was hearing a batch of 58 petitions challenging the demonetisation announced by the Centre on November 8, 2016.
The Supreme Court had on Tuesday said that limited scope of a judicial review in economic policy matters does not mean that the court will fold its hands and sit back, observing that the manner in which a decision is taken by the government can always be examined.
Calling the demonetisation of ₹ 500 and ₹ 1000 currency notes "deeply flawed", Mr Chidambaram had argued that the Union government cannot on its own initiate any proposal relating to legal tender which can only be done on the recommendation of the RBI's central board.
Resisting the Supreme Court's attempt to revisit the 2016 demonetisation exercise, the government had said the court cannot decide a matter when no tangible relief can be granted by way of "putting the clock back" and "unscrambling a scrambled egg."
The RBI had earlier admitted in its submission that there were "temporary hardships" and that they too are an integral part of the nation-building process, but there was a mechanism by which problems that arose were solved.
The Centre recently told the top court in an affidavit that the demonetisation exercise was a "well-considered" decision and part of a larger strategy to combat the menace of fake money, terror financing, black money, and tax evasion.
Defending the exercise, the Centre had told the Supreme Court that the step was taken after extensive consultations with the RBI and that advance preparations were made before the note ban was enforced.
NDTV
The Supreme Court on Wednesday directed the Centre and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to put on record relevant records relating to the government's 2016 decision to demonetise currency notes of ₹ 1,000 and ₹ 500 denomination for its perusal.
Reserving its verdict on a batch of pleas challenging the Centre's 2016 decision, a five-judge constitution bench headed by Justice SA Nazeer heard the submissions from Attorney General R Venkataramani, RBI's counsel, and the petitioners' lawyers, including senior advocates P Chidambaram and Shyam Divan.
The Supreme Court directed the parties to file written submissions by December 10.
"Heard. Judgment reserved. Learned counsels of the Union of India and Reserve Bank of India are directed to produce the relevant records," the bench, also comprising Justices B R Gavai, A S Bopanna, V Ramasubramanian, and B V Nagarathna, said.
The AG submitted before the bench that he will submit relevant records in a sealed cover.
The top court was hearing a batch of 58 petitions challenging the demonetisation announced by the Centre on November 8, 2016.
The Supreme Court had on Tuesday said that limited scope of a judicial review in economic policy matters does not mean that the court will fold its hands and sit back, observing that the manner in which a decision is taken by the government can always be examined.
Calling the demonetisation of ₹ 500 and ₹ 1000 currency notes "deeply flawed", Mr Chidambaram had argued that the Union government cannot on its own initiate any proposal relating to legal tender which can only be done on the recommendation of the RBI's central board.
Resisting the Supreme Court's attempt to revisit the 2016 demonetisation exercise, the government had said the court cannot decide a matter when no tangible relief can be granted by way of "putting the clock back" and "unscrambling a scrambled egg."
The RBI had earlier admitted in its submission that there were "temporary hardships" and that they too are an integral part of the nation-building process, but there was a mechanism by which problems that arose were solved.
The Centre recently told the top court in an affidavit that the demonetisation exercise was a "well-considered" decision and part of a larger strategy to combat the menace of fake money, terror financing, black money, and tax evasion.
Defending the exercise, the Centre had told the Supreme Court that the step was taken after extensive consultations with the RBI and that advance preparations were made before the note ban was enforced.
NDTV
Ahmad-GERMANFC
Local Club Regular
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2016
- Runs
- 1,653
Lol what’s relation of this new news post with thread title
Sidilicious
T20I Debutant
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2013
- Runs
- 6,207
Dayum Varun! Didn’t know you were a BJP supporter?
Ahmad-GERMANFC
Local Club Regular
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2016
- Runs
- 1,653
It just shows that he is a thoughtful person rather than blind supporter.
Kinda impressive cuz these days people support political figures like they are supporting a sports team and back them no matter what.
Varun
Senior Test Player
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2012
- Runs
- 26,111
- Post of the Week
- 1
Until the end-2017 state elections I gave them a chance - as did many others after the 2014 polls.
Everything since then has been garbage, including on the economic front.
Sidilicious
T20I Debutant
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2013
- Runs
- 6,207
Sidilicious
T20I Debutant
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2013
- Runs
- 6,207
True. Of the 4 countries whose politics I follow, the only country where majority people are still sane when it comes to politics is Germany. Otherwise you have bhakts, brexiteers and magats pulling us to the right, to a lesser extent left wing nut jobs to the left, but that’s only the US. The lefties in India and UK are much saner.
Only in Germany I see people willing to move to CSU CDU again if the traffic lighters keep messing up.
Similar threads
- Poll
