New poll on Pakistani voter intentions

[hussain.r97]

Full report here - https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UPGfeIDN8YcWFjbWZsV1BveW8/view

• Voters are split on whether or not the country is headed in the right or wrong direction. While they generally felt good about security, law and order, and development, they expressed concern about the economy, load shedding, and corruption.
• The survey also showed that Pakistanis were angry about the Panama Papers scandal, supported the Supreme Court verdict, and supported the resignation of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
• PML-N maintains a lead in the ballot test at 38 percent, with PTI in a very strong second place at 27 percent. PPP is in third with 17 percent.
• Overall the PML-N federal government had a strong job approval rating at 58 percent. The new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abassi received somewhat lower marks, with 43 percent saying that they approved of the job he was doing.
• The survey also tested some of the names of potential successors to Nawaz Sharif that have been mentioned in the press. Current Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has emerged as the best choice of the potential PML-N candidates.

It seems like the methodology for this poll was sound, they also split based on demographics correctly.

According to the survey, the voter intentions in Pakistan are as below:

If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote for? (Open-ended)

PML-N: 38%
PTI: 27%
PPP: 17%
MQM-P: 3%
JUI-F: 1%
ANP: 1%
JI: 1%
BNP: 1%
PML-Q: 1%
Other: 4%
No Response: 7%

If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote?
(Party Vote by Province) (Open-ended)

Punjab-
PML-N - 58%; PTI - 23%; PPP - 6%; JI - 1%; PML-Q - 0%; IND - 1%

KPK -
PTI - 62%; PML-N - 10%; ANP - 5%; JI - 1%; JUI-F - 1%; PPP - 2%

Great to see PTI with a clear majority in KPK. An interesting thing to note is JUI-F is almost dead according to this survey.

Sindh -
PPP - 52%; PML-N - 12%; MQM-P - 11%; PTI - 14%; PML-F - 2%; JUI-F - 1%; JI - 1%

Balochistan -
PTI - 33%; PML-N - 15%; PPP - 9%; BNP - 8%; PKMAP - 6%; ANP - 2%; NP - 1%

PTI interestingly high in Balochistan, could it be due to the Pashtun population in the north voting the same way as the Pashtuns of KPK?

There are also some more really interesting questions in the link I gave above. One that stood out was -

Would you ever consider voting for PTI?

Yes, maybe - 37%; No, never - 54%; Don't Know - 9%

It's too bad that there is no regular polling in Pakistan. If there was, we could see some actual trends emerging, and maybe have a better idea. However, this poll doesn't seem to be anything too unexpected, and it looks quite promising.

The methodology is quite sound too.

• Data was collected by the IPOR Consulting under the supervision of Global Strategic Partners (GSP).
• The sample consisted of 4,540 interviews and has a confidence interval of ±1.5% at the mid-range with a confidence level of 95%. The response rate was 71%.
• The sample was distributed in 73 Districts of all four provinces of Pakistan (except the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Chitral). The survey is a nationally representative sample of voting-age residents of Pakistan, age 18 and above. The data collection concluded in September 2017. The interviews were all in-person and in-home.
• A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province and divided into rural and urban categories. In the third stage, each district was further stratified by union councils.
• Interview teams were comprised of both males and females; the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers.
• The Probability-Proportional-to-Size (PPS) method was used to select localities and household were selected through “Random Walk Method”. After a random starting point was selected, the Left Hand Rule (LHR) was used and then a skip pattern where every nth household were selected for interviews. The Kish Grid was used to select respondents 18 years and older within these randomly selected
households.
• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.

 

[Varun]

Twice in a row, Nawaz Sharif's party is set to win? Does he really appeal over Imran Khan to Pakistan's voter base, at least in Punjab?

 

[Black Zero]

Good op.

However in 3rd worle countries these polling usually skewed in favor of urban voters.
Plus, sample set is low, imo.

 

[hussain.r97]

Apparantly, this is why people don't want to vote for PTI.

 

[Pakistanian]

If Pakistan had a Presidential system like America it'd be interesting to see who would win cause I think Imran Khan seems the most presidential and would win 1-on-1 against Nawaz Sharif who would be his only real competitor.

 

[hussain.r97]

Good op.

However in 3rd worle countries these polling usually skewed in favor of urban voters.
Plus, sample set is low, imo.

Agreed that sample size might be kind of small for Pakistan, but the methodology is sound. They interviewed people across many groups.

 

[Saeed]

Did PTI improve compared to past polls? PTI needs to focus on election campaigns, elections are not that far away.

 

[Pakistanian]

Apparantly, this is why people don't want to vote for PTI.

They've been around for like 20 years and Imran Khan first held public office in 2002, that is a long time, he'd be considered a veteran here. I feel like Pakistanis define "experience" as being ancient lol. Anyways no experience is better than bad eexperience.

 

[hussain.r97]

Did PTI improve compared to past polls? PTI needs to focus on election campaigns, elections are not that far away.

Polls in Pakistan are few and far between, but this one is consistent with a Gallup poll from April.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Pakistani_general_election,_2018

 

[hussain.r97]

I think the main issue here is that will these percentages translate to seats? We need to remember that Pakistan still has a First Pass the Post system. These poll results, while looking like an improvement, may just yield the exact same results as the last election.

If Pakistan had an MMP system, things would look a lot different. for starts, no party would be able to govern alone according to this poll, and furthermore, PML-N would not be able to govern with their traditional coalition partners.

 

[Waseem]

They've been around for like 20 years and Imran Khan first held public office in 2002, that is a long time, he'd be considered a veteran here. I feel like Pakistanis define "experience" as being ancient lol. Anyways no experience is better than bad eexperience.

Imran can rule KPK or other areas for decades but people will only consider him experienced if he builds some mega projects. Quite strange if they still think he is not experienced after his KPK stint and experiencing what EXPERIENCED Sharif and Zardari has done. Personally, i think people know he is honest and genuine leader but this is just an excuse to keep voting for their beloved parties.

 

[hussain.r97]

They've been around for like 20 years and Imran Khan first held public office in 2002, that is a long time, he'd be considered a veteran here. I feel like Pakistanis define "experience" as being ancient lol. Anyways no experience is better than bad eexperience.

Imran can rule KPK or other areas for decades but people will only consider him experienced if he builds some mega projects. Quite strange if they still think he is not experienced after his KPK stint and experiencing what EXPERIENCED Sharif and Zardari has done. Personally, i think people know he is honest and genuine leader but this is just an excuse to keep voting for their beloved parties.

I think the question was about PTI as a whole, and not just Imran Khan. It is true that PTI party members are less experienced than PPP or PMLN ones. But still, as [MENTION=142256]Pakistanian[/MENTION] said, no experience is better than bad experience.

 

[Saeed]

Apparantly, this is why people don't want to vote for PTI.

If these are reliable answers maybe PTI should give more time to senior leaders other than Imran Khan so people could focus less on Imran Khan. Also looks like experience is a huge issue for people. PTI will have to depend on old politicians as usual.

 

[Waseem]

Punjab-
PML-N - 58%; PTI - 23%; PPP - 6%; JI - 1%; PML-Q - 0%; IND - 1%

Sindh -
PPP - 52%; PML-N - 12%; MQM-P - 11%; PTI - 14%; PML-F - 2%; JUI-F - 1%; JI - 1%

Quite clear it's not going to be walk in the park for PTI in Punjab and Sindh. This has VERY LITTLE to do with ideology, policies etc and a lot to do with mentality. People tend to stick to parties they/their elders trusted for little things like local road improvement, thana/kachehri culture or small scale development. PTI can include such individuals who may have influence in local politics but as a party they will find it extremely tough to convince people since they have never been in power. Imran Khan k naam ki takhti lagni chahyie sarkon pe diwaron par otherwise no chance.

These 23% and 14% in Punjab & Sindh are MOSTLY educated youth (proved in ALL exit polls) with moderate thinking and approach who don't support traditional tried and tested failures.

 

[Waseem]

I think the question was about PTI as a whole, and not just Imran Khan. It is true that PTI party members are less experienced than PPP or PMLN ones. But still, as [MENTION=142256]Pakistanian[/MENTION] said, no experience is better than bad experience.

True but people's perception is that experience means being able to build mega projects. Nawaz supporters see motorway, bridges which gives them impression them PMLN is very experienced.

PTI can counter this a bit in next elections but not without building a mega project. Education, governance, police and health reforms can be felt but still aren't VISIBLE (like a STRUCTURE that can physically be seen).

 

[hussain.r97]

Punjab-
PML-N - 58%; PTI - 23%; PPP - 6%; JI - 1%; PML-Q - 0%; IND - 1%

Sindh -
PPP - 52%; PML-N - 12%; MQM-P - 11%; PTI - 14%; PML-F - 2%; JUI-F - 1%; JI - 1%

Quite clear it's not going to be walk in the park for PTI in Punjab and Sindh. This has VERY LITTLE to do with ideology, policies etc and a lot to do with mentality. People tend to stick to parties they/their elders trusted for little things like local road improvement, thana/kachehri culture or small scale development. PTI can include such individuals who may have influence in local politics but as a party they will find it extremely tough to convince people since they have never been in power. Imran Khan k naam ki takhti lagni chahyie sarkon pe diwaron par otherwise no chance.

These 23% and 14% in Punjab & Sindh are MOSTLY educated youth (proved in ALL exit polls) with moderate thinking and approach who don't support traditional tried and tested failures.

I really doubt PTI will be winning Sindh or Punjab on their own anytime soon. What they need to do is make some deals with other parties. Perhaps a few seat adjustments in Sindh and Punjab could help their cause? I think seat adjustments with PSP in Karachi + Hyderabad might be a good move, not too sure about Punjab, maybe PML-Q?

 

[saadibaba]

Take Punjab out of the equation and PTI will be the winner nationally with very high ratings in KPK, leading in Baluchistan and second in Sindh. Punjab takes up so much of the national electoral vote its hard to fathom any party winning nationally and not being very competitive in Punjab if not outright winning it. If this survey is taken as an accurate description of the ground realities in Punjab, my question is why is PTI not been able to take over PML-N despite the Panama gate scandal and ousting of NS.

 

[saadibaba]

True but people's perception is that experience means being able to build mega projects. Nawaz supporters see motorway, bridges which gives them impression them PMLN is very experienced.

PTI can counter this a bit in next elections but not without building a mega project. Education, governance, police and health reforms can be felt but still aren't VISIBLE (like a STRUCTURE that can physically be seen).

But how can PTI build mega projects in Punjab when they are not in power. Any mega project in KPK will be too far off for people of Punjab to really appreciate. I think dharma's and huge jalsas do not translate into winning as well, as we saw during last elections. Its simple, IK needs to become folksy. Stop the dramatics and appear more humble, a simpleton as they say. I think NS appeal has been this pseudo-folksiness. He comes across as a good old boy, kind of the same phenomenon we saw with George W. Bush. I am not sure if this all that is required but no harm in trying it.

 

[Black Zero]

PTI will make govt after 2018 elections.

 

[Waseem]

But how can PTI build mega projects in Punjab when they are not in power. Any mega project in KPK will be too far off for people of Punjab to really appreciate. I think dharma's and huge jalsas do not translate into winning as well, as we saw during last elections. Its simple, IK needs to become folksy. Stop the dramatics and appear more humble, a simpleton as they say. I think NS appeal has been this pseudo-folksiness. He comes across as a good old boy, kind of the same phenomenon we saw with George W. Bush. I am not sure if this all that is required but no harm in trying it.

That's what i meant, really hard to convince people because you can't possibly do ANYTHING without getting either federal or Punjab gov and i really doubt projects in KPK will impress many in Punjab. Yes he can start acting masoom like Nawaz but not possible to change attitude after all these years.

 

[Napa]

Take Punjab out of the equation and PTI will be the winner nationally with very high ratings in KPK, leading in Baluchistan and second in Sindh. Punjab takes up so much of the national electoral vote its hard to fathom any party winning nationally and not being very competitive in Punjab if not outright winning it.

Punjab-
PML-N - 58%; PTI - 23%; PPP - 6%; JI - 1%; PML-Q - 0%; IND - 1%

Punjab alone has 183 seats whereas the rest of the country has 149 seats. If these figures are true, then PML-N is going to sweep Punjab and return to power. "Second in Sindh" actually means that PTI will end up behind both PML-N and PPP as Sindh has more than half (75) of the non-Punjab seats.

If this survey is taken as an accurate description of the ground realities in Punjab, my question is why is PTI not been able to take over PML-N despite the Panama gate scandal and ousting of NS.

Because, unlike the educated youth, the more mature Punjabi voters realize that IK is a lot of hot air and no substance.

 

[saeedhk]

Khuda ka khoof karo Pakistanio.Another N-league government in 2018.

This poll paints a grim picture of Pakistan's future.

 

[Pakistanian]

Punjab-
PML-N - 58%; PTI - 23%; PPP - 6%; JI - 1%; PML-Q - 0%; IND - 1%

Punjab alone has 183 seats whereas the rest of the country has 149 seats. If these figures are true, then PML-N is going to sweep Punjab and return to power. "Second in Sindh" actually means that PTI will end up behind both PML-N and PPP as Sindh has more than half (75) of the non-Punjab seats.



Because, unlike the educated youth, the more mature Punjabi voters realize that IK is a lot of hot air and no substance.

Naah the old gen doesn't want change, they're out of touch just like how a lot of old southerners where I live support the Republicans no matter what.

 

[Syed1]

These same Pakistani keep voting for Noon league or PPP and then crying about halat...

 

[waqar goraya]

I don't believe N is more than twice popular in Punjab, with 58 and 23 percent ratings respectively. If you look at all the by-elections in Punjab held during last year or so, almost every time N league has won very narrowly.

At their home turf in Lahore, both by elections were very close. Only Gujranwala district in Punjab has more N league supporters than Lahore itself.

 

[King-Misbah]

I don't believe N is more than twice popular in Punjab, with 58 and 23 percent ratings respectively. If you look at all the by-elections in Punjab held during last year or so, almost every time N league has won very narrowly.

At their home turf in Lahore, both by elections were very close. Only Gujranwala district in Punjab has more N league supporters than Lahore itself.

I think it will be 50/45 split in Punjab in 2018 in PMLNs favour. 45 is significant and PTI will make gains in North, South Punjab and Lahore. If Shabaz is ousted then the game will change.

 

[saeedhk]

Exactly.Right now, the PTI has a very good chances of winning in Punjab. PML-N's vote bank has been dented by Panamagate verdict, hanging of Mumtaz Qadri and Khatam - e- Nubuwwat issue.

 

[Lonewarrior]

what if i say, thre will be no elections in 2018 ?

 

[Waseem]

what if i say, thre will be no elections in 2018 ?

That's what they said in 2013 as well

 

[Lonewarrior]

That's what they said in 2013 as well

i dont know about 2013,
but about 2018, its my opinion.

 

[Waseem]

i dont know about 2013,
but about 2018, its my opinion.

There were strong rumours in 2013 that technocrat government will be formed and elections won't be held for at least few years. These days Sharif gang is spreading this news again to give an impression that democracy is in danger.

 

[SarfiBabarHaris]

But how can PTI build mega projects in Punjab when they are not in power. Any mega project in KPK will be too far off for people of Punjab to really appreciate. I think dharma's and huge jalsas do not translate into winning as well, as we saw during last elections. Its simple, IK needs to become folksy. Stop the dramatics and appear more humble, a simpleton as they say. I think NS appeal has been this pseudo-folksiness. He comes across as a good old boy, kind of the same phenomenon we saw with George W. Bush. I am not sure if this all that is required but no harm in trying it.

Had a chance to live in Faisalabad - Chiniot for 4 months and interact with students from various parts of Punjab and was surprised to see the support of PMLN. One major point I heard was 'Shahbaz Sharif is better than others and us nay Punjab aur hamaray ilaaqay mai kaam karaya hai'.. Kind of similar to what I hear from friends and cousins in Karachi.

 

[SarfiBabarHaris]

If this survey is taken as an accurate description of the ground realities in Punjab, my question is why is PTI not been able to take over PML-N despite the Panama gate scandal and ousting of NS.

Had a chance to live in Faisalabad - Chiniot for 4 months and interacted with students from various parts of Punjab and was surprised to see the support of PMLN. One major point I heard was 'Shahbaz Sharif is better than others and us nay Punjab aur hamaray ilaaqay mai kaam karaya hai'.. Kind of similar to what I hear from friends and cousins in Karachi.

 

[Napa]

Naah the old gen doesn't want change, they're out of touch just like how a lot of old southerners where I live support the Republicans no matter what.

When you are older and have had more experience with the world, you will likely also become more conservative.

You think the old generation is conservative and doesn't want to change? Actually, they have changed, they used to be more liberal when they were younger. That is the way it works.

 

[saadibaba]

Had a chance to live in Faisalabad - Chiniot for 4 months and interacted with students from various parts of Punjab and was surprised to see the support of PMLN. One major point I heard was 'Shahbaz Sharif is better than others and us nay Punjab aur hamaray ilaaqay mai kaam karaya hai'.. Kind of similar to what I hear from friends and cousins in Karachi.

I've heard similar things from people actually living in Punjab, especially Lahore and central Punjab. Shabaz Sharif has a Rudy Gulliani kind of a image in Lahore/Central Punjab of a tough, hands-on kind of an administrator. Reality is, Lahore and Central Punjab have prospered, maybe not as much as it should have but better than other parts of Pakistan. I am sure there are a lot of people in Punjab who are dissatisfied with PML-N's performance as well, otherwise why would PTI be so competitive there but the question remains, has PML-N's core support declined over the last 5 years. If so, than PTI has a good chance to make inroads, if not so much than it'll be the same as last elections. Also, if Shahbaz is so liked in Punjab and he potentially takes over PML-N's leadership, the level of support for the party may at least stay the same if not increase.

 

[srh]

Twice in a row, Nawaz Sharif's party is set to win? Does he really appeal over Imran Khan to Pakistan's voter base, at least in Punjab?

Imran Khan has foot in the mouth disease and is usually considered unstable who changes his views frequently.

 

[Napa]

I am sure there are a lot of people in Punjab who are dissatisfied with PML-N's performance as well, otherwise why would PTI be so competitive there but the question remains, has PML-N's core support declined over the last 5 years. If so, than PTI has a good chance to make inroads, if not so much than it'll be the same as last elections.

For poorer countries like India and Pakistan, it is usual for the incumbents to lose support over time. So if the PML-N is able to win the next elections, even with reduced vote percentage, it will be quite an achievement.

 

[MMHS]

I think, the voting (election) process in South Asia isn't appropriate. It's flawed, corrupted and it doesn't serve the purpose. For such countries with massive but less educated, less aware and needy population, this flawed system is carried by the politicians for their benefit.

If I go by the numbers, it's clear that whoever wins the next election in PAK (probably IND as well), it'll be a weak Govt. with lots of compromise, purchase of vote/nomination and dirty horse trading, which eventually should take several political crooks to NA or Cabinet, with very little public support or recognition even in own constituency. In an electoral area, if 6/7 parties contest, and may be another 3/4 strong "rebel" (prominent leaders who couldn't buy their ticket under Party banner), may be even 15-20% of cast vote can make someone Member of National Parliament, even minister. At least in BD, I can say that most of the seats that's won by <3% difference are basically due to the efficiency of their field force in previous night - a Tk 1000 note, 2-3 KG beef biriany, one Lungi and one shari, may be few gifts for the kids and murrubbis - in total for less than Tk 3000, average 5 to 6 votes are bought ...... and this mass is 50%+ of the total voter in a financially constraint country.

What I would like to see in these 3 countries where every seat has at least half a million population at average (for IND, it's like 2.5mn), there should be a 2nd round, something they introduced in Ukraine (?). The idea is that if any candidate is to win a seat, he has to win 50%+ of cast vote, otherwise there will be a 2nd round where top 2 candidates contests and people has to vote 2nd time - ideally, each public representative should have mandate of majority of his people (people under his constituency). May be too far fetched, but unless 50% vote is cast (of total voter) in 2nd round, there has to be a 3rd round - voters from other party has to vote one of the top 2 to elect the relatively better one. When majority vote is cast for the "marka" (Party symbol), often it's the banner wins, not the person - in this case most likely the better candidate should win because majority of the neutrals should vote on candidate, rather than their party.

Top political leaders will never allow this to happen, because this will take the control of nomination from their hand - capable/popular candidate (s), won't go for buying nomination, rather they'll contest individually and then force a bi-election.

 

[hussain.r97]

What I would like to see in these 3 countries where every seat has at least half a million population at average (for IND, it's like 2.5mn), there should be a 2nd round, something they introduced in Ukraine (?). The idea is that if any candidate is to win a seat, he has to win 50%+ of cast vote, otherwise there will be a 2nd round where top 2 candidates contests and people has to vote 2nd time - ideally, each public representative should have mandate of majority of his people (people under his constituency). May be too far fetched, but unless 50% vote is cast (of total voter) in 2nd round, there has to be a 3rd round - voters from other party has to vote one of the top 2 to elect the relatively better one. When majority vote is cast for the "marka" (Party symbol), often it's the banner wins, not the person - in this case most likely the better candidate should win because majority of the neutrals should vote on candidate, rather than their party.

Top political leaders will never allow this to happen, because this will take the control of nomination from their hand - capable/popular candidate (s), won't go for buying nomination, rather they'll contest individually and then force a bi-election.

Second round voting happens in France. While I think it is much better than the current first pass the post system, it is still very flawed, and there are much better options than second round polling.

To start with, second round polling doesn't solve the issue of over representation. For example, in the second round party A wins 51% of the vote in a single constituency, and party B wins 49%, only a 2% margin. Now imagine of party A wins every seat in the country with 51% of the vote, they would have all the seats in the National Assembly with only 51% of the vote, leaving 49% of voters with no representation in the Assembly. This system allows parties to gain absolute control over the country, and it leaves large parts of the population with no representation at all.

Because of how unfair a FPP or second round system can turn out to be, I really think that a mixed member proportional (MMP) type system needs to be implemented. MMP has been implemented in countries like New Zealand and Germany, and it has been largely successful. Under an MMP system, the overall popular vote percentage determines the number of seats a party has in the National Assembly. For instance, if there are 500 seats in the assembly, and party A wins 25%, party B wins 50%, and party C wins 25%, they would each be allocated 125, 250, and 125 seats respectively. However, half of the 500 seats in the assembly continue to be constituency based seats, but there are absorbed into the allocated number of seats. Meaning, if party B wins 190 constituencies, they will end up with 190 seats + 60 extra seats allocated to them because of their high party vote. However, if a situation arises where a party wins more constituencies than their allocated number of seats, then extra seats are added, known as overhangs. For instance, party A wins in 140 constituencies with 25% of the popular vote, meaning they have won 15 more seats than they were allocated. Due to winning 15 extra seats, the number of seats in the assembly are increased from 500 to 515 to accommodate the extra seats.

There are also parameters added into the system to ensure that too many small, single issue parties don't end up in the assembly. A party vote threshold is added, meaning that only parties getting above the threshold can be allocated seats in the assembly. For example, if the threshold is set at 3%, then a party must get more than 3% of the popular vote make it into the assembly. However, if a party who wins less than 3% end up winning a constituency, they still get a seat in the assembly. The votes for parties who did not make the threshold are removed, and the popular vote is recalculated to determine the number of seats allocated to each party.

I did an analysis on how the National Assembly would look if the 2013 Pakistan elections were done under an MMP system. http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/s...-election-system-affect-the-National-Assembly

Basically, the main points from my analysis were that.
-PML (N) would not have a clear majority.
-PML (N) would not be able to form a coalition with their current support partners, they would need to convince the MQM or PML (Q) to form a government with them.
-PML (Q) goes from 2 out of 342 seats under FPP, to 28 out of 733 seats under MMP. 14 times stronger.
-Because PML (N) does not have a clear majority, it does not have absolute power in governance, other smaller parties in the coalition can keep them in check.
-The PTI + PPP opposition is far stronger, and they have more influence in government due to being able to sway some of the smaller parties in the ruling coalition to vote against PML (N) on certain issues.
-Many small parties only get into the Assembly with overhang seats, and they have half the influence they would have under FPP due to doubled seats in the assembly.

 

[Pak_Jazba]

PML (N) will destroy PTI in Punjab.

PTIs popularity has dwindled by an enormous extent since 2013. The bit to consider is that even after the Panamagate verdict and ouster of PM Nawaz Sharif, his wife was voted for in the by-elections and won by a considerable margin of 12,000 votes. PTI supporters will say this was a strong fight by Dr. Yasmin Rashid, however, if you would have considered the general thinking in the country around August, most people had suddenly turned Anti-Nawaz Sharif and were respecting the SUpreme Court verdict. So IMO, the best chance PTI had to assert and gain strength to strength was through a by-election win, which, it somehow LOST.

I don't think PTI stands a chance in Punjab, the general consensus is heavily skewed towards PML(N) again.

 

[Syed1]

Something needs to be done about the "win in Punjab rule over Pakistan" situation. I'm sure the Punjabi people have a good reason to vote for Nawaz and his clan, but unfortunately the rest of Pakistan doesn't see it that way. It is like MQM just winning in Karachi and forming federal government. Pretty sure that won't be acceptable to our Punjabi brethren so why is a provincial party like the Noon league is imposed on us?

 

[hussain.r97]

Something needs to be done about the "win in Punjab rule over Pakistan" situation. I'm sure the Punjabi people have a good reason to vote for Nawaz and his clan, but unfortunately the rest of Pakistan doesn't see it that way. It is like MQM just winning in Karachi and forming federal government. Pretty sure that won't be acceptable to our Punjabi brethren so why is a provincial party like the Noon league is imposed on us?

It definitiely doesn't help when the census results are dodgy. The day we get a truly accurate census in Pakistan, the balance of power will shift away from Punjab.

Another fact is that unfortunately the entire electoral system in Pakistanis flawed and archaic. The fact is that under the current FPTP system, PML (N) won a clear majority in 2013 with less than 50% of the vote. This means that a high proportion of votes were wasted. The fact is that if someone wins a constituency with just 30% of the vote, the other 70% of votes are wasted. The current makeup of our National Assembly is not even an accurate representation of how the country voted in 2013.

You know the system is a joke when PTI got a higher overall vote than PPP, but got fewer seats, or when PML (Q) and JUI (F) have the same overall vote, but the former has 2 seats and the latter has 15.

 

[MMHS]

Second round voting happens in France. While I think it is much better than the current first pass the post system, it is still very flawed, and there are much better options than second round polling.

To start with, second round polling doesn't solve the issue of over representation. For example, in the second round party A wins 51% of the vote in a single constituency, and party B wins 49%, only a 2% margin. Now imagine of party A wins every seat in the country with 51% of the vote, they would have all the seats in the National Assembly with only 51% of the vote, leaving 49% of voters with no representation in the Assembly. This system allows parties to gain absolute control over the country, and it leaves large parts of the population with no representation at all.

Because of how unfair a FPP or second round system can turn out to be, I really think that a mixed member proportional (MMP) type system needs to be implemented. MMP has been implemented in countries like New Zealand and Germany, and it has been largely successful. Under an MMP system, the overall popular vote percentage determines the number of seats a party has in the National Assembly. For instance, if there are 500 seats in the assembly, and party A wins 25%, party B wins 50%, and party C wins 25%, they would each be allocated 125, 250, and 125 seats respectively. However, half of the 500 seats in the assembly continue to be constituency based seats, but there are absorbed into the allocated number of seats. Meaning, if party B wins 190 constituencies, they will end up with 190 seats + 60 extra seats allocated to them because of their high party vote. However, if a situation arises where a party wins more constituencies than their allocated number of seats, then extra seats are added, known as overhangs. For instance, party A wins in 140 constituencies with 25% of the popular vote, meaning they have won 15 more seats than they were allocated. Due to winning 15 extra seats, the number of seats in the assembly are increased from 500 to 515 to accommodate the extra seats.

There are also parameters added into the system to ensure that too many small, single issue parties don't end up in the assembly. A party vote threshold is added, meaning that only parties getting above the threshold can be allocated seats in the assembly. For example, if the threshold is set at 3%, then a party must get more than 3% of the popular vote make it into the assembly. However, if a party who wins less than 3% end up winning a constituency, they still get a seat in the assembly. The votes for parties who did not make the threshold are removed, and the popular vote is recalculated to determine the number of seats allocated to each party.

I did an analysis on how the National Assembly would look if the 2013 Pakistan elections were done under an MMP system. http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/s...-election-system-affect-the-National-Assembly

Basically, the main points from my analysis were that.
-PML (N) would not have a clear majority.
-PML (N) would not be able to form a coalition with their current support partners, they would need to convince the MQM or PML (Q) to form a government with them.
-PML (Q) goes from 2 out of 342 seats under FPP, to 28 out of 733 seats under MMP. 14 times stronger.
-Because PML (N) does not have a clear majority, it does not have absolute power in governance, other smaller parties in the coalition can keep them in check.
-The PTI + PPP opposition is far stronger, and they have more influence in government due to being able to sway some of the smaller parties in the ruling coalition to vote against PML (N) on certain issues.
-Many small parties only get into the Assembly with overhang seats, and they have half the influence they would have under FPP due to doubled seats in the assembly.

I understand the flaws of bi-election (2nd round), but in a 2 candidacy election it'll always be very close. That's the case in USA and more or less BD is heading to that line.

I understand the popular vote % system, but in parliamentary system, you can't implement that. That model probably is more effective in Presidential form of Govt. where most popular candidate wins the election on popular vote and he runs the Govt. with upper and lower house of assembly. But that popular voting shouldn't be like US state base electoral system, which was effective 200 years back to bring equality between small and big states, but time has moved on. Otherwise like Punjab domination in PAK, US President almost always would have come from California, Texas, Yew York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts or Illinois.

Besides, allocation of seat (MP), based on popular vote % will wipe out representation of rural or remote areas - Parties will come in power from mass people votes and then they'll select rich and powerful living in big cites as MPs, and these guys won't even bother for what's going in interior Sindh, Punjab or B'tan.

Personally, I am a strong believer of strong, effective but reasonably honest dictatorship in 3rd world countries - don't mind from which form that operates. In Bangladesh, we had a white elephant, one of many, many such - Adamjee Jute mills, which was running at a billion+ TK loss/year and it was occupying almost a sqKM of countries best Industrial plots, with Victorian age technology and mercenaries, consuming energy like a hungry pig. It took 3/4 different Govt., over 25 years of court hearing, at least a bn $ resource wastage to liquidate that thing from the hands of few Union leaders backed by politicians - still Govt. can't use that land, neither can lease because of a stay order, though even pipes and electric wares have been sold by now and local political goons are making millions from slums and brothels there.

In China, it probably would have taken 2 weeks with a cost of few rounds of bullets (and may be few waxed rope) - by now, it wold have been one of world's largest composite textile, yarn and garments industry.

 

[HussainRx8]

Agreed that sample size might be kind of small for Pakistan, but the methodology is sound. They interviewed people across many groups.

Lol. How can the methodology be sound if there are sampling issues?

 

[hussain.r97]

Lol. How can the methodology be sound if there are sampling issues?

And exactly what are the sampling issues? The sample demographics seem very much in line with Pakistan's overall demographics.

 

[hussain.r97]

Bump.

Geo TV hired Gallup PK and Pulse Consultants to conduct a poll in Pakistan. Both came out with reasonably similar results to the GSP poll last month, with PML-N ahead of PTI by 8-13%.

Full article here - https://www.geo.tv/latest/169121

The combined sample size of the study was more than 6,000 households. Gallup Pakistan carried out the survey from October 10 to November 1 using an error margin of +-2 to 3% at 95% confidence level, while the parallel research by Pulse Consultant was conducted from Oct 8 to Oct 25 with a margin of error of 1.62% at 95% confidence level.

 

[hussain.r97]

Another thing worth noting is that Gallup conducted two polls in April, before and after the initial Panama verdict. PML-N has steadily dropped from 38% to 36% to 34%, while PTI has risen from 22% to 25% to 26%.

 

[saeedhk]

Another thing worth noting is that Gallup conducted two polls in April, before and after the initial Panama verdict. PML-N has steadily dropped from 38% to 36% to 34%, while PTI has risen from 22% to 25% to 26%.

I expect their popularity to further drop following the Faizabad fiasco.

 

[Mamoon]

So the second most popular reason for not voting for PTI is Kaptaan himself, which makes good sense. As a party, PTI has great potential, but Kaptaan himself is not qualified to lead the country - he is not corrupt, but is he is too volatile and immature to be the PM.

Now the Junoonis would obviously object this notion because Nawaz is corrupt and has not shown any maturity either, but unfortunately two wrongs don't make a right - let the people decide who they want. That is how democracy works. Next year is our savior's best chance. His political career will be over if he doesn't win this time.

 

[Bewal Express]

I am sure the 200bn distributed by the Nooras to MNA will help in the election as the updated budget deficit figures seem to rocketing. PML motto, borrow to win elections with bribes, borrow to stay in power and then hide the true figures.

 

[waqar goraya]

So the second most popular reason for not voting for PTI is Kaptaan himself, which makes good sense. As a party, PTI has great potential, but Kaptaan himself is not qualified to lead the country - he is not corrupt, but is he is too volatile and immature to be the PM.

Now the Junoonis would obviously object this notion because Nawaz is corrupt and has not shown any maturity either, but unfortunately two wrongs don't make a right - let the people decide who they want. That is how democracy works. Next year is our savior's best chance. His political career will be over if he doesn't win this time.

PTI has great potential because IK has built this party over two decades, pti is IK and IK is pti ; how can one consider these two entities separate? And if this PTI has potential then how could you ignore its leader?
It sounds all too confusing to me.
If you remove IK from PTI then those people would still not vote PTI.

 

[Syed1]

Poll conducted by Geo Tv. Enough said.

 

[babajee]

So the second most popular reason for not voting for PTI is Kaptaan himself, which makes good sense. As a party, PTI has great potential, but Kaptaan himself is not qualified to lead the country - he is not corrupt, but is he is too volatile and immature to be the PM.

Now the Junoonis would obviously object this notion because Nawaz is corrupt and has not shown any maturity either, but unfortunately two wrongs don't make a right - let the people decide who they want. That is how democracy works. Next year is our savior's best chance. His political career will be over if he doesn't win this time.

Why don’t you go lead the country Mamoon bhai ? You seem to be the only person who knows how to be a PM.

 

[waleed88]

PTI will have to make an alliance with other parties like PPP or MQM otherwise this election might be the most divisive in history...

 

[hussain.r97]

Poll conducted by Geo Tv. Enough said.

Not directly by Geo TV. Geo hired two reputable consultancies, the results seem about right.

 

[hussain.r97]

PTI will have to make an alliance with other parties like PPP or MQM otherwise this election might be the most divisive in history...

I did some research, and a PTI-PMLQ-MQM alliance has serious potential to keep both PMLN and PPP out of power. PTI need to play their cards right, and form the right alliances.

 

[waleed88]

I did some research, and a PTI-PMLQ-MQM alliance has serious potential to keep both PMLN and PPP out of power. PTI need to play their cards right, and form the right alliances.

Yes, Punjabis need an alternative to PMLN, despite the right wing going against them, alot of centrist might vote for N, and alternative like PMLQ would be a good option. MQM would be a viable option too for alliance

 

[Waseem]

Not directly by Geo TV. Geo hired two reputable consultancies, the results seem about right.

I agree the results do reflect on ground reality. Although there are other factors like candidates and biradri system where party/leader doesn't matter but the results do give some idea.

If there is one thing that may change people's mind is recent events and controversies surrounding the change in law. PMLN attracts heavy majority of religious votebank due to affiliation with some influential pirs and religious figures but this vote will not go to PTI. Most of them will either not vote or move to religious parties like Labbaik etc.

 

[Pakistanian]

You're a smart kid, hussain.

 

[Mamoon]

PTI has great potential because IK has built this party over two decades, pti is IK and IK is pti ; how can one consider these two entities separate? And if this PTI has potential then how could you ignore its leader?
It sounds all too confusing to me.
If you remove IK from PTI then those people would still not vote PTI.

PTI has potential because it is established itself as the third major party in the country and doesn't have skeletons in the closest unlike the other two. A visionary leader and a savvy politician can do wonders with PTI.

I don't agree that PTI is nothing without Imran. Maybe not now, but it will continue to thrive long after Imran is gone. Yes there are people that worship Imran as if he is some divine figure, but on the contrary there are people who would vote for PTI once Imran is no longer at the helm. A lot of people have lost faith in Imran more than the party itself.

I am hoping to see someone like Asad Umar in Imran's position one day. In my view, he has significantly greater potential to lead the party.

 

[hussain.r97]

You're a smart kid, hussain.

I'm still a kid?

 

[hussain.r97]

PTI has potential because it is established itself as the third major party in the country and doesn't have skeletons in the closest unlike the other two. A visionary leader and a savvy politician can do wonders with PTI.

I don't agree that PTI is nothing without Imran. Maybe not now, but it will continue to thrive long after Imran is gone. Yes there are people that worship Imran as if he is some divine figure, but on the contrary there are people who would vote for PTI once Imran is no longer at the helm. A lot of people have lost faith in Imran more than the party itself.

I am hoping to see someone like Asad Umar in Imran's position one day. In my view, he has significantly greater potential to lead the party.

I personally agree that Imran Khan is not the perfect leader, his personality is far too volatile and emotional and Pakistan needs a leader with a stable mind. I am not a fan of his dharna business, he should simply just let democracy do it's work. However, I really don't see any other options. If I was in Pakistan, I would certainly be voting for PTI simply because the other two parties are tried and tested failures, and have a reputation of being corrupt and unjust. PTI seem to have done a decent job in KPK, and they deserve a chance to govern the country.

PTI has a solid future after Imran is gone as long as they maintain their integrity. I think the whole appeal of PTI is more about their relatively high integrity compared to other parties, mixed in with their populist platform. Those are the two main reasons they have thrived in recent years. Even when Imran is gone, it is the integrity and populist platform of the party that will continue to bring in the votes.

 

[hussain.r97]

I agree the results do reflect on ground reality. Although there are other factors like candidates and biradri system where party/leader doesn't matter but the results do give some idea.

I would imagine that anyone who is part of the 'biradari system' would simply just answer their 'biradari party' in this poll. It is actually very encouraging to see five polls from three different consultancies showing consistent results and the same overall trends.

If there is one thing that may change people's mind is recent events and controversies surrounding the change in law. PMLN attracts heavy majority of religious votebank due to affiliation with some influential pirs and religious figures but this vote will not go to PTI. Most of them will either not vote or move to religious parties like Labbaik etc.

It could actually help PTI if the votebank on the right wing ends up splitting between PML-N, Labbaik, etc, a split votebank is the perfect chance to snatch some vital seats. All PTI need to do is try and arrange an alliance with PML-Q and keep the right wing parties out. I highly doubt that PTI will attract right wing voters, but PML-Q's platform can possibly be used to bring them in. It would take some real strategic planning, but a PTI/PML-Q alliance has some real potential to cause a huge upset in Punjab.

 

[hussain.r97]

Yes, Punjabis need an alternative to PMLN, despite the right wing going against them, alot of centrist might vote for N, and alternative like PMLQ would be a good option. MQM would be a viable option too for alliance

In a PTI/PML-Q alliance, the PML-Q platform can be used to attract some right wing voters in my opinion.

 

[saeedhk]

In my opinion, the PTI will make an alliance with PML-Q in Punjab and with PSP in Karachi.

 

[King-Misbah]

In my opinion, the PTI will make an alliance with PML-Q in Punjab and with PSP in Karachi.

Besides Gujrat; how many seats can PMLQ grab?

 

[saeedhk]

Besides Gujrat; how many seats can PMLQ grab?

In some districts of Punjab, they got more than 10k votes which when combined with that of PTI could earn them a few seats here and there.

 

[King-Misbah]

In some districts of Punjab, they got more than 10k votes which when combined with that of PTI could earn them a few seats here and there.

Few seats here and there isn't enough tbh. Doubt they can provide more then 7,8 seats and thats pushing it.

 

[shaz619]

No self respecting Pakistani would vote for a candidate other then Imran Khan

 

[ManFan]

No self respecting Pakistani would vote for a candidate other then Imran Khan

You have people willing to lay their lives down for the likes of Sharif and Zardari. They also don't like IK because he has no experience.

 

[King-Misbah]

You have people willing to lay their lives down for the likes of Sharif and Zardari. They also don't like IK because he has no experience.

No experience in corruption

 

[ManFan]

No experience in corruption

Or gorging on the souls of Pakistanis and kneeling to the Ancestors of Athens.

 

[hussain.r97]

Few seats here and there isn't enough tbh. Doubt they can provide more then 7,8 seats and thats pushing it.

Going by the 2013 results, they would have had 20 more seats if that formed an alliance with PTI, that is very significant...

 

[Waseem]

I would imagine that anyone who is part of the 'biradari system' would simply just answer their 'biradari party' in this poll. It is actually very encouraging to see five polls from three different consultancies showing consistent results and the same overall trends.



It could actually help PTI if the votebank on the right wing ends up splitting between PML-N, Labbaik, etc, a split votebank is the perfect chance to snatch some vital seats. All PTI need to do is try and arrange an alliance with PML-Q and keep the right wing parties out. I highly doubt that PTI will attract right wing voters, but PML-Q's platform can possibly be used to bring them in. It would take some real strategic planning, but a PTI/PML-Q alliance has some real potential to cause a huge upset in Punjab.

Majority of PMLQ heavyweights have joined PTI or PMLN. I don't think PMLQ has any party votebank but they may have still have some winning candidates here and there who may not win in presence of PTI/PMLN candidates but yes alliance with PTI may result in PMLQ winning some seats.

On the other hand, i won't be surprised one bit if PMLN forms an alliance with PMLQ again seeing their government under threat due to recent setbacks. Mian sb strength pe girebaan pakartay hain aur weakness pe paon and i can see them forming alliance with most parties other than PTI.

 

[Syed1]

One important factor is that people generally vote for PTI because of the party or their trust in Imran Khan, whereas parties like Noon league rely on electables. These electables will win elections even if they ran independently or under the banner of Ghada party. The thing is these electables always sense which way the wind is blowing and they try to align themselves with it. Whether you like or hate PTI you cannot deny the wind is blowing in their favour. Fully expect that as soon as elections draw nearer these electables in Noon league will abandon ship and ally with PTI.

 

[saeedhk]

One important factor is that people generally vote for PTI because of the party or their trust in Imran Khan, whereas parties like Noon league rely on electables. These electables will win elections even if they ran independently or under the banner of Ghada party. The thing is these electables always sense which way the wind is blowing and they try to align themselves with it. Whether you like or hate PTI you cannot deny the wind is blowing in their favour. Fully expect that as soon as elections draw nearer these electables in Noon league will abandon ship and ally with PTI.

Some have already started to abandon Godfather's ship. More defections coming.

 

[waqar goraya]

PTI has potential because it is established itself as the third major party in the country and doesn't have skeletons in the closest unlike the other two. A visionary leader and a savvy politician can do wonders with PTI.

I don't agree that PTI is nothing without Imran. Maybe not now, but it will continue to thrive long after Imran is gone. Yes there are people that worship Imran as if he is some divine figure, but on the contrary there are people who would vote for PTI once Imran is no longer at the helm. A lot of people have lost faith in Imran more than the party itself.

I am hoping to see someone like Asad Umar in Imran's position one day. In my view, he has significantly greater potential to lead the party.

People will vote PTI if IK is not at the helm..... This is a bizarre logic. How PTI will turn into a better party without IK? On what grounds they would vote PTI? And what about those who won't vote PTI without IK?

Almost all political parties have their attraction because of personalities and if it is the party structure/system which would make PTI a better party then there is more evidence of IK's contribution and significance in PTI.

People, like Asad Umar won't be anywhere near the top leadership of PTI if not for IK. If IK is not there then pti would be in the hold of more traditional politicians like Pervez Khatak, SMQ, Jehangir Tareen etc, provided it is still there.

 

[Bewal Express]

Both Muslim League factions are corrupt, and elements within them are more or less tcorrupt han other elements. There are a few that are honest, and if they are electables than its worth the PTI to come together with them. Otherwise take your chances.

 

[Syed1]

People will vote PTI if IK is not at the helm..... This is a bizarre logic. How PTI will turn into a better party without IK? On what grounds they would vote PTI? And what about those who won't vote PTI without IK?

Almost all political parties have their attraction because of personalities and if it is the party structure/system which would make PTI a better party then there is more evidence of IK's contribution and significance in PTI.

People, like Asad Umar won't be anywhere near the top leadership of PTI if not for IK. If IK is not there then pti would be in the hold of more traditional politicians like Pervez Khatak, SMQ, Jehangir Tareen etc, provided it is still there.

Keep in mind it is IK who brought Asad Umar into politics.

Asad was chilling at Engro as one of Pakistan's finest CEOs, but Imran Khan persuaded him to give it up and enter politics for the greater good.


But but but I hate IK and he should not be in politics. Please listen to me my opinion carries alot of weight

 

[ManFan]

Someone from Argentina wrote about how when there are elections held, the corrupt parties give 100 dollar bills to the impoverished villagers or desert people. He said they will never go away because they reproduce like rabbits. Reminds me a bit of Pakistan.