I still think, PAK's best chance to win is chasing. BD chased 3 times against more of less their preferred attack and I think it's possible to chase even large totals unless new ball does considerable damage.
WIN bats deep and bats explosively, but loose. Batting first, they might blast 400 one day, but better chances that they'll lose couple of wickets and lose the track for a below per total (which is like 300 these days

). But, if they bowl first, PAK doesn't have the spinners to defend average totals, WIN will chase it calculatively - they did that against IND and BD thrice in recent times on turning tracks. Even if PAK posts a large total like 350+, WIN will go after the target and they have enough explosives in armory to chase that. Or, if PAK loses couple of early wickets to their fast bowlers on morning wickets, WIN will simply blast past <250 sort of target.
Load playing XI with batsmen (8 in total, including Imad, and bowl 20 overs with Hafeez, Malik, Haris, Fakhar), and try to strangle WIN with spin, then chase it through 50 overs of batting, without ever allowing the asking to reach more than 20% of initial ask.
My money - WIN. They have scared me today.