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Pakistan's chances of reaching the semi-finals stage of the ICC World Cup 2023?

Will Pakistan somehow qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC World Cup 2023?

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Pakistan will win against South Africa if they bat first. PAK are now used to the Chennai wicket and they are not traveling.

SA will be playing their 2nd game with a short turnaround. They played on the 21st, then today and now they will play on 27th after travelling from Mumbai to Chennai

They will be exhausted and Chennai pitch doesn't suit them anyway. PAK have the advantage of getting used to the conditions better, a larger, ideal turnaround of 3 days and not having to travel.

This would be a huge advantage to Pakistan and if tey can get SA to bowl in the heat and humidity first up, I think SA will be vulnerable since they are not good at chasing either.
 
First of all, very happy to see PakPassion is back online! I just realized that when I was searching for somewhere to share my disappointment after the AFG game. And my word... the wrist slitting is at an all-time high level here (AGAIN). Maybe I'm still learning how to navigate the kind of threads - but can someone please point me towards sensible level-headed posts?

I find it laughable when fans/media and posters pretend that Pakistan are minnows, that we should be asked to qualify for these tournaments, or that we've been abysmal in LOI cricket. That we fluked the ODI ICC Champions Trophy (well.. because anyone can qualify for semis and then win 2 games in a row), then almost fluked our way to semis in 2019 WC and beat both finalists in the group stages and finished at #5 (because well, what did it matter, they were never going to make it on NRR, I wish they finished 10 so we could kick out the whole squad), fluked our way to semis 2021 T20WC (well, you only beat Nepal, Kazakhstan, and India.. and you lost to the first actually good opponent in semis), and then fluked our way to the final in 2022 T20WC (well, like we said before, anyone can qualify for semis, and XYZ beat GTX and NZ weren't actually that good anyway in semis).

Look - no one here is suggesting Pakistan is the BEST side in the world. We've performed at about 3rd best in T20 tournaments and 4th/5th best at white ball tournaments. Understand the basic concept in knockout tournaments (this applies to most team sports around the world): You have to qualify for the knockout stage, and be good enough to beat the best teams on that day. Pakistan can do this and there's precedent, even if you remove our high placed finishes at the last two T20 WCs, we did manage to win 1 of the last 4 opportunities at ODI tournaments (2019 ODI WC, 2017 ICCT, 2018 & 2023 Asia Cups).

Don't get me wrong - we have issues. Our fielding standards continue to dissapoint (but to be fair, Aus had an abysmal game against SA the other day as well), our batting is unable to get big scores (but to be fair, we did chase down the highest total in WCs ever just a few games ago), and our bowling has not yet been able to adapt to the recent shift in ODIs. The last one is probably the most jarring as a Pakistani fan, because we're used to seeing our bowling punch above their weight so to speak. The issue is that with batting-friendly surfaces becoming the norm even in cities which traditionally favored some bowling, boundaries being brought in (unnecessarily and to the determent of cricket's future if you ask me - a topic for another day), and recent trends in umpiring calls favoring batsmen in marginal situations (we see more wides being given across the board, especially on bouncers, and hands are raised easier for waist-high noballs, and of course the 3rd umpire now retrospectively also calls no-balls; all of these are relatively recent changes and I'm not saying they're all bad).

I'm not going to talk about our forever-issue of an incomptent board/management that continue to plague us, because that is a widespread, systemic institutional problem in all of Pakistan, but this is a separate topic and we've done well in spite of it.

For those who actually wanna talk world cup cricket and are still going to be watching the Pak games like I will, I'll list the scenarios:

  • The situation: We are currently 5th on the table, with Ind, NZ, SA, AUS ahead of us. I'll call them Top 4, and all the other teams including Paksitan "Bottom 6". Wins against Top 4 are valued more as they signify the team's potential strength.
  • Pak win out remaining games and end on 6 wins - At best, we qualify automatically if other results are favorable; at worst, qualification will come down to NRR. The other teams we could potentially tie with include basically everyone in the Top 4 and some of the Bottom 6. My insight here is that in this scenario, if NZ win out (outside of our game), our qualification will be guaranteed. If they drop games to Aus/SA, the NRR battles will begin!
  • Pak lose 1 game and win rest and end on 5 wins - There is still qualification hope in this scenario, but will depend heavily on other results. The computations are numerous since there are too many games to go, but I can shed a little light. The best team to lose to would be NZ in a close game, and then hope that NZ beats AUS/SA heavily, and IND beats SA heavily (as they did vs AUS). We'll obviously benefit if another Bottom 6 team beat any of the Top 4 teams.
Everyone else
  • What about England? ENG is in a similar situation to what we are in since they lost to a Bottom 6 team but have not registered a win against a Top 4 team - the above bullets apply to them too.
  • What about SA? SA is in the situation we hope to be in - in that they lost to a Bottom 6 team but won against a Top 4 team - the above bullets still apply to them. However, they have not yet been tested by either IND/NZ, the best teams so far in the tournament.
  • What about AUS? AUS has lost to 2 Top 4 teams, but they also beat Pakistan. They are slightly better placed than SA for qualification since they have not lost to a Bottom 6 team, but have also not yet defeated a Top 4 team.
  • What about NZ? NZ look like they are in a great spot, but in reality they are not much better than AUS. The only reason they are better than AUS now is that they only have 1 loss to a Top 4 team (vs 2 for AUS), but they too have not yet defeated a Top 4 team (unlike SA for example). The games vs SA/AUS will decide how good NZ really are in this tournament.
  • What about IND? Clear and away the best team of the tournament - they are the only undefeated team and only team to have registered 2 wins vs Top 4 teams.
  • What about ENG/SL? Both are in a similar situation to PAK, because they have dropped a game to the Bottom 6 and are yet to beat a Top 4 team. SL are actually slightly better than PAK/ENG in some ways because the game they lost was to a 5th placed team and still have to play AFG and BAN. NRR is an issue for all 3, but more for ENG/SL than Pak.
  • AFG/NED/BAN - all three dropped 2 games to Bottom 5 and have no wins against the Top 4, so it's an upward struggle for these teams, but there's a chance still to qualify. AFG will certainly have to win out and NED/BAN are worse off and unlikely to qualify. The problem for all 4 teams in this bullet (and ENG for that matter) is that their NRR is quite a bit worse than even Pak's.

If someone was wondering what my prediction is.. I think we will lose 1 game and win out the remaining. We'll likely get edged out by another team due to NRR and not make semis. My hope: we blast everyone on the way to world cup glory :) :)
 
zulfiqar said:
First of all, very happy to see PakPassion is back online! I just realized that when I was searching for somewhere to share my disappointment after the AFG game. And my word... the wrist slitting is at an all-time high level here (AGAIN). Maybe I'm still learning how to navigate the kind of threads - but can someone please point me towards sensible level-headed posts?

I find it laughable when fans/media and posters pretend that Pakistan are minnows, that we should be asked to qualify for these tournaments, or that we've been abysmal in LOI cricket. That we fluked the ODI ICC Champions Trophy (well.. because anyone can qualify for semis and then win 2 games in a row), then almost fluked our way to semis in 2019 WC and beat both finalists in the group stages and finished at #5 (because well, what did it matter, they were never going to make it on NRR, I wish they finished 10 so we could kick out the whole squad), fluked our way to semis 2021 T20WC (well, you only beat Nepal, Kazakhstan, and India.. and you lost to the first actually good opponent in semis), and then fluked our way to the final in 2022 T20WC (well, like we said before, anyone can qualify for semis, and XYZ beat GTX and NZ weren't actually that good anyway in semis).

Look - no one here is suggesting Pakistan is the BEST side in the world. We've performed at about 3rd best in T20 tournaments and 4th/5th best at white ball tournaments. Understand the basic concept in knockout tournaments (this applies to most team sports around the world): You have to qualify for the knockout stage, and be good enough to beat the best teams on that day. Pakistan can do this and there's precedent, even if you remove our high placed finishes at the last two T20 WCs, we did manage to win 1 of the last 4 opportunities at ODI tournaments (2019 ODI WC, 2017 ICCT, 2018 & 2023 Asia Cups).

Don't get me wrong - we have issues. Our fielding standards continue to dissapoint (but to be fair, Aus had an abysmal game against SA the other day as well), our batting is unable to get big scores (but to be fair, we did chase down the highest total in WCs ever just a few games ago), and our bowling has not yet been able to adapt to the recent shift in ODIs. The last one is probably the most jarring as a Pakistani fan, because we're used to seeing our bowling punch above their weight so to speak. The issue is that with batting-friendly surfaces becoming the norm even in cities which traditionally favored some bowling, boundaries being brought in (unnecessarily and to the determent of cricket's future if you ask me - a topic for another day), and recent trends in umpiring calls favoring batsmen in marginal situations (we see more wides being given across the board, especially on bouncers, and hands are raised easier for waist-high noballs, and of course the 3rd umpire now retrospectively also calls no-balls; all of these are relatively recent changes and I'm not saying they're all bad).

I'm not going to talk about our forever-issue of an incomptent board/management that continue to plague us, because that is a widespread, systemic institutional problem in all of Pakistan, but this is a separate topic and we've done well in spite of it.

For those who actually wanna talk world cup cricket and are still going to be watching the Pak games like I will, I'll list the scenarios:

  • The situation: We are currently 5th on the table, with Ind, NZ, SA, AUS ahead of us. I'll call them Top 4, and all the other teams including Paksitan "Bottom 6". Wins against Top 4 are valued more as they signify the team's potential strength.
  • Pak win out remaining games and end on 6 wins - At best, we qualify automatically if other results are favorable; at worst, qualification will come down to NRR. The other teams we could potentially tie with include basically everyone in the Top 4 and some of the Bottom 6. My insight here is that in this scenario, if NZ win out (outside of our game), our qualification will be guaranteed. If they drop games to Aus/SA, the NRR battles will begin!
  • Pak lose 1 game and win rest and end on 5 wins - There is still qualification hope in this scenario, but will depend heavily on other results. The computations are numerous since there are too many games to go, but I can shed a little light. The best team to lose to would be NZ in a close game, and then hope that NZ beats AUS/SA heavily, and IND beats SA heavily (as they did vs AUS). We'll obviously benefit if another Bottom 6 team beat any of the Top 4 teams.
Everyone else
  • What about England? ENG is in a similar situation to what we are in since they lost to a Bottom 6 team but have not registered a win against a Top 4 team - the above bullets apply to them too.
  • What about SA? SA is in the situation we hope to be in - in that they lost to a Bottom 6 team but won against a Top 4 team - the above bullets still apply to them. However, they have not yet been tested by either IND/NZ, the best teams so far in the tournament.
  • What about AUS? AUS has lost to 2 Top 4 teams, but they also beat Pakistan. They are slightly better placed than SA for qualification since they have not lost to a Bottom 6 team, but have also not yet defeated a Top 4 team.
  • What about NZ? NZ look like they are in a great spot, but in reality they are not much better than AUS. The only reason they are better than AUS now is that they only have 1 loss to a Top 4 team (vs 2 for AUS), but they too have not yet defeated a Top 4 team (unlike SA for example). The games vs SA/AUS will decide how good NZ really are in this tournament.
  • What about IND? Clear and away the best team of the tournament - they are the only undefeated team and only team to have registered 2 wins vs Top 4 teams.
  • What about ENG/SL? Both are in a similar situation to PAK, because they have dropped a game to the Bottom 6 and are yet to beat a Top 4 team. SL are actually slightly better than PAK/ENG in some ways because the game they lost was to a 5th placed team and still have to play AFG and BAN. NRR is an issue for all 3, but more for ENG/SL than Pak.
  • AFG/NED/BAN - all three dropped 2 games to Bottom 5 and have no wins against the Top 4, so it's an upward struggle for these teams, but there's a chance still to qualify. AFG will certainly have to win out and NED/BAN are worse off and unlikely to qualify. The problem for all 4 teams in this bullet (and ENG for that matter) is that their NRR is quite a bit worse than even Pak's.

If someone was wondering what my prediction is.. I think we will lose 1 game and win out the remaining. We'll likely get edged out by another team due to NRR and not make semis. My hope: we blast everyone on the way to world cup glory :) :)
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Technically, Yes
Realistically, No
 
As a Pakistani fan, I've gotten to a point where South Africa ke khilaf ka match ka soch ke tension hone ke bajay hasi aa rahi hai 😂😂😂
South Africa will murder Paksitan.
Only Kudrat ka Nizam can save them from humiliation
 
Nikhil_cric said:
Pakistan will win against South Africa if they bat first. PAK are now used to the Chennai wicket and they are not traveling.

SA will be playing their 2nd game with a short turnaround. They played on the 21st, then today and now they will play on 27th after travelling from Mumbai to Chennai

They will be exhausted and Chennai pitch doesn't suit them anyway. PAK have the advantage of getting used to the conditions better, a larger, ideal turnaround of 3 days and not having to travel.

This would be a huge advantage to Pakistan and if tey can get SA to bowl in the heat and humidity first up, I think SA will be vulnerable since they are not good at chasing either.
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Bat first? We just don't have the bowling to defend

I think Pakistan should just try their luck at restricting teams to 300-320 runs and then try to chase. Our bowling unit is unreliable
 
Savak said:
Bat first? We just don't have the bowling to defend

I think Pakistan should just try their luck at restricting teams to 300-320 runs and then try to chase. Our bowling unit is unreliable
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Makes sense.
But for that we need some changes in bowling.
Rauf being very expensive i think we can go with waseem jr i know he is not that great either but maybe more economical than rauf.
We need to add agha in squad and choose btw shadab nawaz mir.
 
Savak said:
Bat first? We just don't have the bowling to defend

I think Pakistan should just try their luck at restricting teams to 300-320 runs and then try to chase. Our bowling unit is unreliable
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And how did that work out for you against Australia? Bowling is NOT your strength currently. Especially your spin bowling and Rauf who are absolutely terrible.

You don't want to serve up that rubbish to a monster lineup like SA. Also PAK will NOT chase 320 in Chennai. Just like you had no chance at chasing 340 + in Bangalore
 
I'm going to agree with Nikhil on this one Savak. I want to see Babar bat first again. Even if our batting hasn't been top notch, our bowling is even weaker at the moment - our bowlers cannot produce wicket taking deliveries even if they had a million dollars to buy one. The only way the batsmen have gotten out against Pakistan is when trying to force the scoring rate (for example, Sri Lankans and Australins when they had wickets in hand and were forcing a mamoth total). In the situation the other team bats first, this means they get 330+. So the other solution is to put 330+ yourself, and have the team try to force the scoring early on and hopefully that's the impetus our bowling needs to get wickets. They are T20 specialists so they will prefer the batsmen trying to have a go at them.

He's seen the wicket once vs AFG, and knows now that 280 was a below par score. If the problem this unit has is that they do not understand what the right target is, just pick an arbitrarily high number and go for it! They want to set up a platform and attack in the last 10 like its 1992? No problem - go for it, just aim high. What's high? 330 is high. Pick 330 as the number when batting first - which means get to 40 overs with 240 on the board and blast away at the end.

Personally I wish that instead of setting a target our batsmen would just play the ball on merit and just look to score as many as they can in any given over- kind of like how our openers have been playing to be honest (minus Shafique last game after Imam's out). I feel like the only chance Pak has to set a 330+ total is for Abdullah Shafique or Imam to hit a big hundred (130+).
 
Mathematically, there’s a chance for Pakistan to sneak through the semis. Realistically, however, there’s no chance. This team of mental midgets are absolutely mentally devastated and have already given up after the royal whopping dished out by India.

Most likely, Pakistan might win one additional game or if miracles happen, two.
 
zulfiqar said:
I'm going to agree with Nikhil on this one Savak. I want to see Babar bat first again. Even if our batting hasn't been top notch, our bowling is even weaker at the moment - our bowlers cannot produce wicket taking deliveries even if they had a million dollars to buy one. The only way the batsmen have gotten out against Pakistan is when trying to force the scoring rate (for example, Sri Lankans and Australins when they had wickets in hand and were forcing a mamoth total). In the situation the other team bats first, this means they get 330+. So the other solution is to put 330+ yourself, and have the team try to force the scoring early on and hopefully that's the impetus our bowling needs to get wickets. They are T20 specialists so they will prefer the batsmen trying to have a go at them.

He's seen the wicket once vs AFG, and knows now that 280 was a below par score. If the problem this unit has is that they do not understand what the right target is, just pick an arbitrarily high number and go for it! They want to set up a platform and attack in the last 10 like its 1992? No problem - go for it, just aim high. What's high? 330 is high. Pick 330 as the number when batting first - which means get to 40 overs with 240 on the board and blast away at the end.

Personally I wish that instead of setting a target our batsmen would just play the ball on merit and just look to score as many as they can in any given over- kind of like how our openers have been playing to be honest (minus Shafique last game after Imam's out). I feel like the only chance Pak has to set a 330+ total is for Abdullah Shafique or Imam to hit a big hundred (130+).
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283 was very good total against Afghanistan, our bowling & fielding was just rubbish. We could save atleast 30 runs in field. Shaheen & hasan bowled good weak link was rauf and spinners.
I didn't understand how they managed to go with 2 leggies and no know in management raise that issue.
 
Visaal-E-Yaar said:
283 was very good total against Afghanistan, our bowling & fielding was just rubbish. We could save atleast 30 runs in field. Shaheen & hasan bowled good weak link was rauf and spinners.
I didn't understand how they managed to go with 2 leggies and no know in management raise that issue.
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It's hard to swallow 283 being a good target when we couldn't dismiss more than 2 AFG batsmen during their chase. Maybe 283 is a good target if we had India's bowling lineup in these conditions - I don't know man, seems low.

But yes everything else you're saying is right - rubbish ground fielding, both in the circle and at the boundary, plenty of overthrows, no clean first-touch pickups to pressure the runners. They match the fielding intensity of the dads I play tapeball with on Sunday.
 
This is my hope for this game:

We win toss and bat first. Top 4 consolidate a good start and get to 230/3 to 40th over - maybe Imam finally gets a century, or maybe it's a string of 50s. Lower order connects and Ifti, Shadab & gang smash their way to 320+. Then, almost out of desparation and a desire to innovate, we employ Ifti in the powerplay from 2nd over against de Koch to try something new. SAF find it too risky to take on Ifti, which builds some dot ball pressure and they decide to take on Shaheen/Hassan and it doesn't go well and they lose a wicket (or two). We definitely hide Harris from the first 10 over PP. SAF decide that they'll wait for the middle overs when Shadab & Nawaz/Usama come on to make their push since they've been weak in the middle overs, and they find success at first, get something like 40 in 4 overs, but their ambition ends up backfiring and they end up losing more wickets to the spinners - needless and rash. Now it's 4 or 5 down and despite the scoring rate being achievable, they now know they are already on Marco Jansen and Klaasen and are a wicket or two away from disaster. SAF recover and threaten to chase down the last 80 runs in 10 overs, but alas - finally for Babar and Pakistan - this is where our bowling actually IS best in class. Shaheen & Rauf combine to restrict SAF and script the win!
 
Well known fact pakistan best perfoms when the poop hits the fan do you think pakistan can somehow sneak into the semi finals obviously relying on other participating teams
 
you have to be brain dead if you think they can...if even if they do they gonna get exposed badly in next big match as they dont have good bowling and have same kind of batsman playing from 1 to 5 how who can't score better then run a ball.

in india you need to consistently score more then 300 which these batsman cant do vs good sides...not every team is like SL
 
Tbh I think even if the do manage to win all 4 I believe SA and Australia will have a better nrr.

SA making sure that they have enough runs to save them if another big bowler arises against Pakistan or Afghanistan
 
If Pakistan had a good NRR, they could've done it probably by winning 4 out of 4. But, it is nearly impossible currently.

Even 4 out of 4 wins may not be enough because they are unlikely to catch India/NZ/South Africa and Aussies are comfortably ahead of them in terms of NRR.

Australia also have 3 easy upcoming games (AFG, BD, and Netherlands) and so their NRR should become even better.

Only thing Pakistan can do now is to win 4 out of 4 with a good NRR and hope for the best.
 
Anything can happen of course it can, we at our best are capable of winning consecutive matches, there’s nothing wrong in looking at the positive
 
sweep_shot said:
If Pakistan had a good NRR, they could've done it probably by winning 4 out of 4. But, it is nearly impossible currently.

Even 4 out of 4 wins may not be enough because they are unlikely to catch India/NZ/South Africa and Aussies are comfortably ahead of them in terms of NRR.

Australia also have 3 easy upcoming games (AFG, BD, and Netherlands) and so their NRR should become even better.

Only thing Pakistan can do now is to win 4 out of 4 with a good NRR and hope for the best.
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Plus I’m expecting England to switch on as well now. They are going to win some games and will not take any hostages especially against Pakistan
 
Highly unlikely. Better for this team to play for pride and come back with some dignity.
 
Travis Head is coming back. They will become even stronger in the business end. Now that AUstralia has a very simple job to do to get to last 4. Not to lose to minnows. That's pretty much it.
 
Savak said:
Highly unlikely. Better for this team to play for pride and come back with some dignity.
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Won't happen bro. Babar has completely lost the support of his players and they all want him gone.
 
There are no chances. And these bunch of midocre players don't even deserve to play semi finals. They should pack up and come back to home.
 
Rana said:
Plus I’m expecting England to switch on as well now. They are going to win some games and will not take any hostages especially against Pakistan
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England winning games is not necessarily bad for us (for e.g., vs AUS or SA), as long as they lose to us in the end. In fact, if Pak are to qualify, I will likely come down to that last game vs ENG (a virtual knockout for us).
 
zulfiqar said:
England winning games is not necessarily bad for us (for e.g., vs AUS or SA), as long as they lose to us in the end. In fact, if Pak are to qualify, I will likely come down to that last game vs ENG (a virtual knockout for us).
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Yeah, spot on, England are on 3 losses, so Pakistan has the chance to give a near "knock-out blow" and win their match against England, who would then be on 4 losses.

The most helpful result would be if England wins against Australia, which would give 3 losses to Australia.
 
A Netherlands win would increase Pakistan's qualifying possibility from 21% to 28%ezgif-3-4667056319.jpg
 
Any iota of a chance if there was evaporated swiftly with Aus crashing Ned to 399.
Babar & Co. Play your remaining games with no pressure infact it's ideal time for stat padding
 
Now that Australia have smashed 399 in their innings against Netherlands, the semi finals are unofficially already locked in. If there was any doubt in the first place before the game, that has been removed.

Pakistan, England, Sri Lanka.. they're done as far as challenging beyond the first round is concerned. Which only England can really be justifiably disappointed about. The other two are nowhere near good enough.

India, NZ, South Africa and Australia are practically confirmed.
 
Rana said:
Tbh I think even if the do manage to win all 4 I believe SA and Australia will have a better nrr.

SA making sure that they have enough runs to save them if another big bowler arises against Pakistan or Afghanistan
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SA have already qualified so have NZ and so has Indian

Top 3 Is booked regardless.

It's between aus, Pak and maybe eng and afg can come forward but aus will qualify. RR for them will skyrocket after their nedtherlands victory today especially Maxwell pulling a blinsr.

Ik it's a minnow, but 106 of 44 is still a might impressive effort
 
Can't qualify on NRR now. We need to hope we win all 4 and that Australia lose 2 of their remaining 4 matches (BANG, NZ, ENG, AFG)

A lot to ask for.
 
Pakistan’s chances for SF are very difficult, as on date, most win sides are India and NZ, they definitely going into semis… then comes SA and AUS, both these sides have scored high totals on their strong batting lineups… Australia struggled initially, but they recovered now… their batters regain form….. The only chance for PAK to qualify for semis, SA and AUS needs to loose majority of their matches…
 
Man we can't even beat Afg, you want us to beat SA and NZ? Quinton and makram will love nothing more then to face our bowling attack lol.

Unless shaheen shows up and pulls 100x above his weight, we are toast.
 
It's like 0.000001% chance of qualifying. Barring a collapse from the top 4 and Pakistan in its utter mediocrity going on an unexpected run, they are not making semi's.

Considering Pakistan's bowling attack at the moment, SF, NZ & England batters are going to absolutely feast.
 
Unfortunately PAK may miss out on NRR like in 2019. India, NZ, Aus are likely. PAK may loose the 4th spot on NRR to SA. More than the afghan game, they were in winning position against Aus with 100 required off 72 balls on a small ground in chinnaswamy/Bangalore. They lost all wickets in no time.
 
We’ve beaten South Africa and New Zealand in a World Cup before so why not?! If we do we’d have to thrash Bangladesh by a big score to have a chance of the semis
 
Thephenom said:
We’ve beaten South Africa and New Zealand in a World Cup before so why not?! If we do we’d have to thrash Bangladesh by a big score to have a chance of the semis
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and hope, SA looses big in their next games. similar to 1992, 2022 they have to rely on other results to go their way. Khudrat ka nizam one more time. It may boil down to the luck factor
 
Another nail in the coffin today for Pakistan:

A win for Australia
And a massive boost to the Australian NRR
 
With the Aussie win today, all the roads to a semi berth have closed for Pakistan. There’s zero chance of that now. Even if South Africa lose two more games, or if the aussies lose one more game, they will still go through on account of their superior net run rate, even if Pakistan wins all their remaining games.

Fans should just enjoy the final 4 games and relax. Prepare for 2027 & other heartbreak.
 
Rana said:
Plus I’m expecting England to switch on as well now. They are going to win some games and will not take any hostages especially against Pakistan
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That is the second last game of the group stages, at that point, everything will be set in stone.
 
The best scenario for Pakistan to qualify is to win its remaining all 4 games and pray that NZ lose 3 of its remaining fixtures (Australia, South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) which Infact is very much possible.
 
With this massive win of Australia, Pakistan is done now!

Pack ur bags guys and come back!
 
Cricket Warrior said:
With this massive win of Australia, Pakistan is done now!

Pack ur bags guys and come back!
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The whole dug out burst into tears after the afg game.

Atm their not even in a mental state to win any 4 games, not even against bamgaldesh.

India dented them in Asia cup and the world cup was a Gone case their and then. Some hope came back via minnows and Sri Lanka win but India just slapped them back to reality.

They had lose to Afghanistan even before the toss lol.

My dad took one look at the Pakistan team when they came to field and said oh yeah we are losing, the team has no confidence.

Everything is over
 
oatmeal said:
Australia's massive win reduces every other teams chances of qualifying. Only 15.5% chance for Pakistan
View attachment 138244
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man it was just over 20%, wasn't a lot in the first place, one more game and it will come down to under 1%. At this point, I am more anxious about how low we will be on the table. Is there any cut-off for the next WC, like only the top 6 or 7 auto-qualify for the next WC?
 
I think every team wants to avoid SA for the Semis lol.

Weird feeling.
 
jakee said:
The best scenario for Pakistan to qualify is to win its remaining all 4 games and pray that NZ lose 3 of its remaining fixtures (Australia, South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) which Infact is very much possible.
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Going to have to pray Pakistan loses another so we can sneak through on 4 losses. If needed.
 
Aman said:
Going to have to pray Pakistan loses another so we can sneak through on 4 losses. If needed.
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NZ losing 3 or 4 games is not a far fetched scenario at all. They have games against Aus SA pak sl. Aus is a given I guess lol with the mental block ! SA is good if they bat 1st. And Pak is pak - they can beat NZ .. SL is probably the only sure fire game for NZ at this time.. so who knows??
 
Bilal Ahmad15 said:
We are only just about halfway through this World Cup, and based on that the 4 semi-finalists are already decided. Nearly as boring as it gets.
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Not at all. Only Ind is a sure bet for sf right now. And SA most likely. But the other 2 are not set in stone at this point.. one never knows in a long tournament. In 2019 until SL beat Eng it was almost pre decided. But after that game it opened up for almost everyone incl Bang!
 
only if we can beat south africa in next match we will be the sure semi finalist as it will be a huge boost for our team
 
alihasnain861 said:
only if we can beat south africa in next match we will be the sure semi finalist as it will be a huge boost for our team
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No we won't. Australia has matched as well. And equal amount left. If they win all and we win all they'll qualify.

For us to qualify we need to win all matches and them hope Aus loses a few.

Afg will probs lose a few so not such a worry, but you have any idea how tall a task it is? To win all 4 games? Especially when NZ and SA are bullying sides? Especially SA?
 
Beating South Africa is just one of the hurdles that Pakistan has to cross. They have to face England and New Zealand as well and also NRR will be a problem if Autralia wins its other matches. Hope something good happens now
 
BouncerGuy said:
Beating South Africa is just one of the hurdles that Pakistan has to cross. They have to face England and New Zealand as well and also NRR will be a problem if Autralia wins its other matches. Hope something good happens now
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Basically we need to hope aus loses some matches and Pakistan wins all 4 games 😂😂.

Allah khair karei
 
Here's a look at the different scenarios for Pakistan's Semi-Final chances:

1. Pakistan win the next four matches - 6 wins, 12 points

Their best chance of making it to the semi-finals is if they win their next four matches. This will take their points tally to 12 and it will mean they will have defeated New Zealand and South Africa, two teams in the top three.

Pakistan will need a favour from other teams facing Australia. If Australia win all their remaining matches, they will qualify ahead of Pakistan. For the Men in Green, it is imperative that the five-time champions lose one or two matches, while they do not let their foot off the pedal.

If Pakistan and Australia win all their matches, it can also bring New Zealand down to three defeats (or more) - as both Pakistan and Australia are yet to face them. Although it is slightly unlikely, if Pakistan and Australia win their remaining matches by big margins, they could knock New Zealand out and take the third and fourth spot.

2. Pakistan win three of their four matches - 5 wins, 10 points

This complicates their chance of making it to the next stage, but Pakistan will very much be in contention if they can win three of their remaining four matches. In this scenario, Pakistan will remain a little distance away from the top three and their only target to hunt down will be Australia.

In this scenario, Australia will have to lose at least two matches and if this happens, the net run rate will decide who goes through. However, if Australia lose three of their last four matches, Pakistan will take the fourth position, or third position (highly unlikely).

3. Pakistan win two of their four matches - 4 wins, 8 points

Pakistan can consider themselves out of the tournament if they win only two of their next four matches. Due to the complex nature of the table at this stage, there is a possibility that one team could qualify for the semi-final with four wins. However, such a situation requires multiple other results to work in their favour.

A similar incident occurred in IPL 2019, where Sunrisers Hyderabad qualified for the playoffs despite winning less than 50% of their matches (six wins in 14 matches). In 16 editions of the IPL, this is the only instance of a team qualifying with six wins (12 points).

4. Pakistan win one of their four matches - 3 wins, 6 points

Pakistan will be knocked out of the tournament.

5. Pakistan lose all four matches - 2 wins, 4 points

Pakistan will be knocked out of the tournament.

NDTV​
 
Pak would have been in a better situation had they been rotating their bowlers prior to the WC. Why in the world were they consistently playing their main bowlers is beyond me. Afridi geniuenly looks tired or something to me each time I see him bowl. I think this is also hampering the performance you would expect from a bowler like him.
 
light said:
Pak would have been in a better situation had they been rotating their bowlers prior to the WC. Why in the world were they consistently playing their main bowlers is beyond me. Afridi geniuenly looks tired or something to me each time I see him bowl. I think this is also hampering the performance you would expect from a bowler like him.
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Pakistan simply looked at the bogus ICC rankings and said, “yup, we are on top and winning this.” Babar then made sure all his friends were selected to ensure they joined the glory wagon. Neither the team nor the board ever took the World Cup serious and so they are now exposed at the world stage and left looking confused and shell shocked.
 
This was the Points table scenario at half way stage back in 2019. Pakistan came back with 4 wins in 4 games but ended up missing the 4th spot due to NRR.

Let's see whether the history repeat itself which seems highly unlikely with the kind of bowling attack we have.

Screenshot-20231025-230143-X.jpg
 
chinaman00 said:
Pakistan simply looked at the bogus ICC rankings and said, “yup, we are on top and winning this.” Babar then made sure all his friends were selected to ensure they joined the glory wagon. Neither the team nor the board ever took the World Cup serious and so they are now exposed at the world stage and left looking confused and shell shocked.
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If being #1 in the ranking was the goal, I mean go for it (6 months prior to the WC). But when you know that the WC is coming, and you're still playing your top gun bowlers in every single matches, injuries were bound to happen. I am almost fully confident saying that Afridi has some sort of a small injury he is playing with because they guy does not look like he is at his best or is struggling somewhat.

Being ranked #1 = no one will remember
Lifting the WC = engraved in history forever and will be remembered throughout times.
 
light said:
If being #1 in the ranking was the goal, I mean go for it (6 months prior to the WC). But when you know that the WC is coming, and you're still playing your top gun bowlers in every single matches, injuries were bound to happen. I am almost fully confident saying that Afridi has some sort of a small injury he is playing with because they guy does not look like he is at his best or is struggling somewhat.

Being ranked #1 = no one will remember
Lifting the WC = engraved in history forever and will be remembered throughout times.
Click to expand...
The problem is worse than you describe. Some of the defeats were abject surrender. If you combine the performances in the Asia cup where they lost to both India and Sri Lanka we can understand how shallow the ranking is. Since I was not following Pakistan cricket closely for a while I thought Pakistan would be the favorites for the Asia Cup given that they attained the no.1 ranking for the first time in history. Maharoof also said the same. Pakistan was the favorite. All the holes were exposed in the Asia Cup with teams playing their full-strength side.
 
jnaveen1980 said:
The problem is worse than you describe. Some of the defeats were abject surrender. If you combine the performances in the Asia cup where they lost to both India and Sri Lanka we can understand how shallow the ranking is. Since I was not following Pakistan cricket closely for a while I thought Pakistan would be the favorites for the Asia Cup given that they attained the no.1 ranking for the first time in history. Maharoof also said the same. Pakistan was the favorite. All the holes were exposed in the Asia Cup with teams playing their full-strength side.
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Honestly, ranking means nothing these days. Take a look at Bangladesh. Was #3 in WC points ranking when they came into the wc but was sitting somewhere in 6-7 in ODI ranking and now are #10 in points table lol
 
shamaan said:
I still think South Africa will loose to Pakistan and India.
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Very much possible mainly due to the ground they play on. Probably one of the least suitable pitch for them. Unlke Wankhede, Chinnaswamy, Modi stadiums this is not going to be quiet batsman friendly.
 
light said:
Pak would have been in a better situation had they been rotating their bowlers prior to the WC. Why in the world were they consistently playing their main bowlers is beyond me. Afridi geniuenly looks tired or something to me each time I see him bowl. I think this is also hampering the performance you would expect from a bowler like him.
Click to expand...
I agree with you but the other side of the story is that we don’t play too many ODI series, and especially against top sides. Seems like the main players need match practice against top teams too.

But yeah Afridi tired, we should had him stop playing other formats in preparation for the World Cup or something else. There has to he a smarter way than what we did this time around.
 
New Zealand's next 4 fixtures
Australia
South Africa
Pakistan
Sri Lanka

I think New Zealand will lose to Australia and South Africa, that will make the Pakistan match a virtual QF.
 
Also the other terrible thing is that our bowlers did get injury at bad times. Would have been better if the injuries happened earlier so our main guys would have been rested much earlier and came back fresh for match practice in the Asia Cup for example.
 
Sherazkhalid said:
man it was just over 20%, wasn't a lot in the first place, one more game and it will come down to under 1%. At this point, I am more anxious about how low we will be on the table. Is there any cut-off for the next WC, like only the top 6 or 7 auto-qualify for the next WC?
Click to expand...
Top 8 automatically qualify for CT 2025 I think.
 
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