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Pakistan's chances of reaching the semi-finals stage of the ICC World Cup 2023?

Will Pakistan somehow qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC World Cup 2023?

  • Total voters
    193
hoshiarpurexpress said:
Pakistan ain't hosting CT 2025. It will be taken away in all probability like Asia Cup.
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Even if that happened and the marches were played elsewhere we’d still be “technical hosts” the same way we were in Asia Cup and would still be automatically qualified.
 
Why would you want them to fluke qualification
This need is not capable of winning
 
Commiserations to all Pakistani fans. It was well fought till the end. The bowlers and fielding have let them down. Match against aus could have been won , if they held on to the catches which would have meant chasing 300-320 instead of 370.

The game against india dented their confidence followed by shocking loss against AFG. The preparation for worldcup was below par. No bench strength, change in coaching staff didn't help. Mohammed Yusuf and saqlain musthaq would have been handful in India since they played lot of cricket and could have guided the team better.


Undue criticism on Babar. 2003 and 2007 pak exited out of World Cup in first round.Hopefully, a new leader is chosen and Pakistan reinvents their cricket like eng did from 2015-2019.
 
MenInG said:
Are we out?
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mathematically, we pretty much are.

If we just concentrate on the teams we have tied with 4 points.

Afg and Sri lanka will play the next game with each other and the winner moves to 6


Too make matters even more worse, Afg also has a game with NL later on
 
pak can still qualify
but that will be due to miracles
Nz to lose all 4 (highly possible)
or 3 and we can chase nrr
 
Dr_Bassim said:
Pakistan can still qualify.

Cornered tigers.
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I feel there is too much cornering/pressure and unlikeliness now.

A loss against Afghanistan can't be happening first of all.

but now three of the four possible semi-finalists, Pakistan lost to them (India, Australia & South Africa).

So the three most "likely" ways are:

1. New Zealand and England win vs Australia

2. Pakistan beats New Zealand themselves, while New Zealand loses 3 out of their 4 remaining matches, which means NRR will come into play

3. same as "possibility" 2. but instead New Zealand loses all 4 of their remaining matches.

This is assuming Pakistan wins remaining three.

But to be honest, if Pakistan was truly going to make semis realistically, then they needed to win against one of South Africa or Australia, and again a loss against Afghanistan can't be happening
 
Technically still not out as I reckon one of the teams will manage to sneak in with 5 wins.

So Pakistan has to win the remaining 3 matches with excellent NRR
 
Bhaijaan said:
Technically still not out as I reckon one of the teams will manage to sneak in with 5 wins.

So Pakistan has to win the remaining 3 matches with excellent NRR
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If they manage to do it, they would also carry the champions momentum into the semi finals and would be the odds on favourites to win it all.
 
ramki said:
@oatmeal You should credit the reddit user Xanfiles for creating the model. They have been doing excellent work with their probability based modelling with right handicaps. Nothing wrong in sharing. But please attribute some credit. It comes across as if you did it...

All of this reddit users' historical CWC23 projections here.
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i disagree with this.

Australia's next 2 games are against very good sides, plus Afg's next 2 games against sides they can win against.

If Australia losses and Afg wins, than the 3rd game will be Afg vs Aus which can be the the quater final match between the two
 
Pakistan are out now no more permutations please this team don't deserve to be in SFs, even last year we got lucky in T20Wc lightning doesn't strike twice
 
Major said:
i disagree with this.

Australia's next 2 games are against very good sides, plus Afg's next 2 games against sides they can win against.

If Australia losses and Afg wins, than the 3rd game will be Afg vs Aus which can be the the quater final match between the two
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Well Afghanistan are in great form and confidence, but Australia has the ability to wipe out teams like how they wiped out Netherlands for 90 runs.

I somewhat see the biggest "Possibility" in England winning vs Australia for pride (or whatever its called) as well as New Zealand winning vs Australia
 
Zero, Nada, Sunya ….

In fact AFG’s have better chance, SRL definitely as well and BD/NED has equal chances.
 
Saj said:
Firstly Pakistan has to win all 3 remaining matches.

I think we should stop there and not go any further :)
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Good point, honestly I see Bangladesh giving us a tough contest on Monday. It’s probably 50/50, I think Bangladesh batting will do well v Pak.
 
Bilal Ahmad15 said:
Well Afghanistan are in great form and confidence, but Australia has the ability to wipe out teams like how they wiped out Netherlands for 90 runs.

I somewhat see the biggest "Possibility" in England winning vs Australia for pride (or whatever its called) as well as New Zealand winning vs Australia
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Those would have to be big wins for NZ and Eng against Aus. And if Aus wins against Afghan, it has to be a narrow win.

And of course, we have to win remaining 3.
 
It's a shame because if Pakistan had won this game I think it would have given them a tremendous boost to their confidence. The batting is showing signs of improvement and the introduction of Wasim Jr. did give the bowling a bit more zip. Spin bowling is still atrocious, but at least they can bat a bit so if they could get to 50 overs they would be able to post a total that is defendable.
 
Major said:
i disagree with this.

Australia's next 2 games are against very good sides, plus Afg's next 2 games against sides they can win against.

If Australia losses and Afg wins, than the 3rd game will be Afg vs Aus which can be the the quater final match between the two
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It's just simulations. Most big teams he's considering 50-50 and the weaker teams have a lower chance of winning.

So then he simulates the results thousands of times and gets the final points table. Only 4% of the scenarios now have Pakistan qualifying.

So it's possible, but highly highly improbable
 
Major said:
i disagree with this.

Australia's next 2 games are against very good sides, plus Afg's next 2 games against sides they can win against.

If Australia losses and Afg wins, than the 3rd game will be Afg vs Aus which can be the the quater final match between the two
Click to expand...

It's just simulations. Most big teams he's considering 50-50 and the weaker teams have a lower chance of winning.

So then he simulates the results thousands of times and gets the final points table. Only 4% of the scenarios now have Pakistan qualifying.

So it's possible, but highly highly i mprobable
 
oatmeal said:
It's just simulations. Most big teams he's considering 50-50 and the weaker teams have a lower chance of winning.

So then he simulates the results thousands of times and gets the final points table. Only 4% of the scenarios now have Pakistan qualifying.

So it's possible, but highly highly improbable
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thanks for sharing, will study this. According to his data, Australia will most likely make it.
 
1992, they qualified on AUS beating WI and the famous rain interupted ENG match . 2022 t20, Netherlands beating SA has given them lifeline.

PAK did not play well enough to be in semis. IND SA AUS NZ could very likely be the finalists.
 
mikeypbadana86 said:
1992, they qualified on AUS beating WI and the famous rain interupted ENG match . 2022 t20, Netherlands beating SA has given them lifeline.

PAK did not play well enough to be in semis. IND SA AUS NZ could very likely be the finalists.
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Those four are most likely the best teams anyway, they deserve it. Pak should have won today but kept shooting themselves in the foot.
 
Mickey Arthur shared his views on Pakistan chances to reach the semi-finals during his press conference after South Africa defeat.

[Reporter:]

There is still hope Pakistan reach the semi-final?

[Mickey Arthur:]

You never know. What I do know is that we need to go and assess combinations again, we need to have a look at the holes we have within our team. We need to we need to start improving in a lot of areas and we've got to go home and finish this tournament with three victories. That's what I do know. Every day we'll be trying and we'll be striving to do that.
 
Bilal Ahmad15 said:
I feel there is too much cornering/pressure and unlikeliness now.

A loss against Afghanistan can't be happening first of all.

but now three of the four possible semi-finalists, Pakistan lost to them (India, Australia & South Africa).

So the three most "likely" ways are:

1. New Zealand and England win vs Australia

2. Pakistan beats New Zealand themselves, while New Zealand loses 3 out of their 4 remaining matches, which means NRR will come into play

3. same as "possibility" 2. but instead New Zealand loses all 4 of their remaining matches.

This is assuming Pakistan wins remaining three.

But to be honest, if Pakistan was truly going to make semis realistically, then they needed to win against one of South Africa or Australia, and again a loss against Afghanistan can't be happening
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IF pakistan win their remaining games and that’s a big if, they need SA and India to win everything and the wheels to come off for either of Australia or NZ. Since the former has a few easy games left scenario 3 is relatively more plausible considering NZ play SA,Aus,Pak and SL. But I don’t think we need to worry about all that as Pakistan in their current form might not even be able to beat Bang.
 
Sherazkhalid said:
man it was just over 20%, wasn't a lot in the first place, one more game and it will come down to under 1%. At this point, I am more anxious about how low we will be on the table. Is there any cut-off for the next WC, like only the top 6 or 7 auto-qualify for the next WC?
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2027 WC will have 14 teams (2003 format)

SA & Zim have direct entry as hosts + 8 teams via ICC Rankings + 4 teams from WC qualifiers
 
Its sad only 1 asian team will play semi final. There were 3 asian teams last time (2011). ACC should ponder over it.
I am confident we will choke again in knockouts like last 10 years and a SENA team will win WC.
 
MenInG said:
Are we out?
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Mostly yes, Theirs a glimmer of hope though.

Australia, Sri lanka and Afghanistan need to lose matches and be idiots in general. Each side needs to lose atleast 2.

Pakistan also need to win all 3 games. But on the off-chance aus win 3 games then aus will still qualify. Pakistan can't compete in net rr.

Out net rr is way too low cause of our iconic Pakistan way. This is sixes in pp1 and throughout the innings are important.

So yh aus lose 3, Sri lanka and afg lose 2, Pakistan win all 3.

Won't happen cause aus faces 2 easy teams and probs 2 cause eng is kinda an easy team to best in the tourney lol. Only NZ is an obstacle for aus.
 
RyanRyan10 said:
2027 WC will have 14 teams (2003 format)

SA & Zim have direct entry as hosts + 8 teams via ICC Rankings + 4 teams from WC qualifiers
Click to expand...
Why go back to the old formula? The biggest issue with the old formula was that any idiot could enter the quater finals as long as they weren't a pure associate minnow.

Reason Pakistan can't enter semi's is because the new format is very tough with every team facing each other once. And all teams being top 10.
 
Best scenario for us
Pak need to win against ban,nz, england
NZ loose to aus,sa,pak and if they beat SL
Pak and nz will end up on 10 points.

NRR
It's benefit pak as we will play our last game after Nz we will exactly knows the Nrr equation.
 
Forget the semi finals.

Just play for pride now as Pakistan don't deserve a semi final place.
 
Visaal-E-Yaar said:
Best scenario for us
Pak need to win against ban,nz, england
NZ loose to aus,sa,pak and if they beat SL
Pak and nz will end up on 10 points.

NRR
It's benefit pak as we will play our last game after Nz we will exactly knows the Nrr equation.
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You know why I laugh and make fun of students in my university who take up theoretical physics and solve theoretical math equations to test their theories and equations?

I laugh at them cause their equations never come true 😂😂.

Brother these equations are the equivalent of asking the tooth fairy or santa clause to grant your wish. You will wake up to reality when you realise both the tooth fairy and santa don't exist.
 
mominsaigol said:
Why go back to the old formula? The biggest issue with the old formula was that any idiot could enter the quater finals as long as they weren't a pure associate minnow.

Reason Pakistan can't enter semi's is because the new format is very tough with every team facing each other once. And all teams being top 10.
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Associates also need some opportunities to play the top teams.
 
We don’t deserve a semi-final spot, even if we win the final 3 matches.

Now that there is lesser pressure on the team, expect the usual suspects to ‘perform’ (stat-pad) in the coming matches. Too little, too late.
 
Saj said:
Forget the semi finals.

Just play for pride now as Pakistan don't deserve a semi final place.
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The worst thing to happen to Pakistan will be if we win the remaining 3 games, and some of out loser players do enough to keep their positions in the team
 
gazza619 said:
The worst thing to happen to Pakistan will be if we win the remaining 3 games, and some of out loser players do enough to keep their positions in the team
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We are against Bangladesh (2nd worst team of the tournament) and England (3rd worst team of the tournament).

Players like Shafique, Imam, Saud, etc. will be licking their lips to milk in these games.
 
Whilst there's nothing more I would love that to see Team Pakistan in the semis and beyond I think that would possibly be the worst thing to happen to this team. All we would end up doing is papering over the cracks.

We need to play well for the next few games, restore some pride and then have a realistic look at ourselves as a team of professional sportsmen and work our way from there.
 
Dr_Bassim said:
Marginal decision.

Pakistan could have won without umpire if they batted 50 overs.
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It wasn't a marginal decision it was out. I still don't understand the logic behind going with umpire's decision when a TV replay has proven it conclusively wrong. Pakistan not batting 50 overs was criminal but it doesn't change the facts.

I'm seeing this sort of soft arbitration has also come in for tremendous criticism in the Premier League as it's open to bias if a referee or umpire wants to give the best possible chance to one side or the other.
 
Best chance is if NZ completely implodes. I think it could happen considering their upcoming opponents but PAK winning three in a row seems impossible.
 
Cpt. Rishwat said:
It wasn't a marginal decision it was out. I still don't understand the logic behind going with umpire's decision when a TV replay has proven it conclusively wrong. Pakistan not batting 50 overs was criminal but it doesn't change the facts.

I'm seeing this sort of soft arbitration has also come in for tremendous criticism in the Premier League as it's open to bias if a referee or umpire wants to give the best possible chance to one side or the other.
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Well then you would have to reverse every umpires call in World Cup.

This might mean Pakistan end up losing close out calls vs Netherlands or Sri Lanka and lose to them.

Not saying you dont have a point.

But right now marginal calls are evened out.

If all calls are out, I think you would find most Pakistani batsmen struggling to make 20 runs.
 
It is comical how everyone is crying about the Shamsi dismissal but no one wants to talk about the Van Der Dussen dismissal.

Imagine the reaction if it was a Pakistani batsman against an Indian bowler. The only thing that was left was for Paul Reiffel to celebrate the wicket with Pakistan.
 
Mamoon said:
It is comical how everyone is crying about the Shamsi dismissal but no one wants to talk about the Van Der Dussen dismissal.

Imagine the reaction if it was a Pakistani batsman against an Indian bowler. The only thing that was left was for Paul Reiffel to celebrate the wicket with Pakistan.
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So do you agree that umpire’s call for LBWs should be deprecated?
 
Mamoon said:
It is comical how everyone is crying about the Shamsi dismissal but no one wants to talk about the Van Der Dussen dismissal.

Imagine the reaction if it was a Pakistani batsman against an Indian bowler. The only thing that was left was for Paul Reiffel to celebrate the wicket with Pakistan.
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They're are umpires calls out every game.....
 
lucky_fish said:
Whilst there's nothing more I would love that to see Team Pakistan in the semis and beyond I think that would possibly be the worst thing to happen to this team. All we would end up doing is papering over the cracks.

We need to play well for the next few games, restore some pride and then have a realistic look at ourselves as a team of professional sportsmen and work our way from there.
Click to expand...
Saj said:
Forget the semi finals.

Just play for pride now as Pakistan don't deserve a semi final place.
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The problem with the “papering over the cracks” thinking is that even a first round exit will not lead to any reforms. Nothing happened in 2003, 2007 nor in 2019..
 
ArabKnight said:
So do you agree that umpire’s call for LBWs should be deprecated?
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No system is perfect. It is applicable to all teams and everyone benefits from it and also gets the short end of the stick.

In the long run, it all evens out. Pakistan is not crashing out of the World Cup because of such moments.

There is no reason for Pakistani fans to moan. They have had their fair share of favorable decisions in this World Cup including against India that obviously wasn’t part of the script for most fans.

Erasmus was practically refusing to give Pakistani batsmen LBW. Just imagine the reaction if the shoe was on the other foot.
 
pillionrider said:
I don't believe Pak deserve to make the semis, but theoretically can they pip NZ? Not convinced about the Kiwis.
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Kiwis have SA/SL/OZ/PAK left. If they lose all 4, they end up on 8.

PAK win all 3, they end up on 10.

Problem for PAK is that if NZ loses to SL, PAK might be fighting for NRR with SL because SL also have to play BD and AFG and IND and they can also end up on 10 points even if they lose to IND
 
Mamoon said:
No system is perfect. It is applicable to all teams and everyone benefits from it and also gets the short end of the stick.

In the long run, it all evens out. Pakistan is not crashing out of the World Cup because of such moments.

There is no reason for Pakistani fans to moan. They have had their fair share of favorable decisions in this World Cup including against India that obviously wasn’t part of the script for most fans.

Erasmus was practically refusing to give Pakistani batsmen LBW. Just imagine the reaction if the shoe was on the other foot.
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Completely agree. Didnt see the people here complaining when Erasmus was acting as the 12th man of the Pakistani team against India.
 
Mamoon said:
Erasmus was practically refusing to give Pakistani batsmen LBW. Just imagine the reaction if the shoe was on the other foot.
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Most Pakistani fans till this day believe that DRS was manipulated in the Semi Final of the 2011 WC.
 
Nikhil_cric said:
Kiwis have SA/SL/OZ/PAK left. If they lose all 4, they end up on 8.

PAK win all 3, they end up on 10.

Problem for PAK is that if NZ loses to SL, PAK might be fighting for NRR with SL because SL also have to play BD and AFG and IND and they can also end up on 10 points even if they lose to IND
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I think SL might beat India.

Oh boy, this place is gonna light up then :srt
 
Its SIMPLE

Win all 3 and hope

New Zealand lose all 4
OR
Australia lose 3/4

I calculated NRR by giving us a 300 run win against BD. We will still NOT qualify on NRR

So yeah
WIN ALL 3 AND HOPE New Zealand LOSE TO SOUTH AFRICA, AUSTRALIA AND SRI LANKA


I don't see Australia losing 3/4 as they are playing England, Bangladesh and Afghanistan
 
Actually Pak has more or less no chance, if Aus beat NZ today then NZ and AUS basically have to lose rest of the matches to unqualify, Pak X 3 wins will get then 10 and these 2 ( AUS and NZ ) would already be at 8 with just 6 games. Oh and India with 10 in games have to lose all 4 ( last being with NL ) and even then it will be NRR with them
 
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