Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[Mian]

Best case scenario PTI wins around 120-130 seats.

Anything less than 90 and we are sitting in opposition.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

The difference is common sense and using your own intuition to decide who is right and wrong based on the presented evidence.

The common sense tells me that it’s hard to find justice in Pakistan. My intuition tells me to not go for any conspiracy theories but deep down I know that it wouldn’t be the first time that the public were deceived by the powers-that-be.

 

[Syed1]

Junaid Safdar being pushed into politics? He reached Pak today.

 

[Mian]

Junaid Safdar being pushed into politics? He reached Pak today.

Dawn already published a blog on him today telling us how its going to boost PMLN chances

 

[Syed1]

Dawn already published a blog on him today telling us how its going to boost PMLN chances

I never thought I'd see the day when Dawn will become so biased.




Just goes to show you can buy anything or anyone in Pakistan

 

[Syed1]

How can people support Junaid Safdar, just because he is the grandson of Nawaz?

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

Here’s the link to Jibran Nasir’s manifesto;
http://jibrannasir.com/manifesto.php

 

[Syed1]

Here’s the link to Jibran Nasir’s manifesto;
http://jibrannasir.com/manifesto.php

No use voting for a guy who has only one seat. He only managed 250 odd votes last time. Even if by some miracle he manages to win all he would be doing is thumping the desk of parliament at max.

 

[the Great Khan]

How can people support Junaid Safdar, just because he is the grandson of Nawaz?

saw a program on samaa called big debate, in that one of the PPPers on the panel claimed that Bilawal has politics in his blood and was trained from a young age to become a politicians hence why he is an ideal candidate. Now anyone with half a brain knows that these molly coddled rich boys know nothing about politics, have never done a hard days work in their lives, have never lead from the front or produced something from nothing. So how can you just say they deserve it because of their bloodline?

its a typical darbari mindset..

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

No use voting for a guy who has only one seat. He only managed 250 odd votes last time. Even if by some miracle he manages to win all he would be doing is thumping the desk of parliament at max.

Firstly, he’s running from two constituencies. Secondly, people should vote for the sake of their conscience. Thirdly, the role of the opposition is to keep the actions of governments in check and hold them accountable to the public. Lastly, not many people knew about Jibran Nasir in the last election and therefore this time he’ll get more votes than the last time. On a side note, what do you think PTI has been doing for the past five years? THEY WERE THE OPPOSITION!

 

[Syed1]

Firstly, he’s running from two constituencies. Secondly, people should vote for the sake of their conscience. Thirdly, the role of the opposition is to keep the actions of governments in check and hold them accountable to the public. Lastly, not many people knew about Jibran Nasir in the last election and therefore this time he’ll get more votes than the last time. On a side note, what do you think PTI has been doing for the past five years? THEY WERE THE OPPOSITION!

I would think that disqualifying and then sending to jail a corrupt Prime Minister is a pretty big achievement for an opposition party.

 

[PakWarrior]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

https://drive.google.com/open?id=13h5brXNGK00tM20_cqh-sjHjfazgBkAw

I made my own predictions so we can get our shared predictions done here.

I honestly only have limited knowledge, I mainly have ground knowledge on Karachi and some pockets of Punjab and Sindh. The rest I have predicted based on what people have said in this forum, what I have heard from elsewhere, as well as a bit of research. The only area which I mostly guessed was FATA.

Have a look, and we can discuss what needs to be changed. I feel like my prediction is too optimistic, though it was hard to argue against not giving those seats to PTI.

Awesome work Bro.

Just a few changes you should make on the sheet just to play it safe.

1. From Faisalabad give PTI 4 seats not 5. Give it to PMLN. It can be any of the seats that you've given to PTI as we can just do a tally count at the end.

2. From Toba Tek Singh give PTI 1 out of the 3 seats not 2. Give it to PMLN.

3. From Jhang give PTI 1 out of the 3 sears not 2. Give it PPP or just put down independent for the seat.

4. From Lahore give PTI 4 seats not 6. Leave NA125 to Imran and change any two of the other seats to PMLN.

5. From PakPattan give PTI 1 seat not 2. Give it PMLN.

6. From Vehari give PTI 2 out of the 4 seats not 3. Give it to PMLN.

7. From Bahwalpur give PTI 3 seats out of 5 not 4. Give it PMLN.

Everything else is perfect. If you could make the above changes soon and upload it then we can do a final total count.

Thanks.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

I would think that disqualifying and then sending to jail a corrupt Prime Minister is a pretty big achievement for an opposition party.

Exactly. You can listen to your conscience even if it means the candidate you are electing would sit on the opposition bench.

 

[Abdullah719]

Hopefully they are back soon, their surveys were really good work.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Our Twitter, FB accounts and website were closed down/hacked for some reason. We are trying to set everything up again so give us a day or two. Thanks.</p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1019186960542453760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Syed1]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Our Twitter, FB accounts and website were closed down/hacked for some reason. We are trying to set everything up again so give us a day or two. Thanks.</p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1019186960542453760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Ok Allah ka shukar.... but how can EVERYTHING get hacked all of a sudden.... maybe they had the same password for everything and one of those simple passwords like "password" or "123456"

 

[Slog]

No use voting for a guy who has only one seat. He only managed 250 odd votes last time. Even if by some miracle he manages to win all he would be doing is thumping the desk of parliament at max.

He'll get around 1000 this time I guess

Decent guy but no chance in such a big constituency with so many eyes

 

[abdulqadir786]

Awesome work Bro.

Just a few changes you should make on the sheet just to play it safe.

1. From Faisalabad give PTI 4 seats not 5. Give it to PMLN. It can be any of the seats that you've given to PTI as we can just do a tally count at the end.

2. From Toba Tek Singh give PTI 1 out of the 3 seats not 2. Give it to PMLN.

3. From Jhang give PTI 1 out of the 3 sears not 2. Give it PPP or just put down independent for the seat.

4. From Lahore give PTI 4 seats not 6. Leave NA125 to Imran and change any two of the other seats to PMLN.

5. From PakPattan give PTI 1 seat not 2. Give it PMLN.

6. From Vehari give PTI 2 out of the 4 seats not 3. Give it to PMLN.

7. From Bahwalpur give PTI 3 seats out of 5 not 4. Give it PMLN.

Everything else is perfect. If you could make the above changes soon and upload it then we can do a final total count.

Thanks.

Below is the aggregate breakdown based on the google link above.

 

[PakWarrior]

Below is the aggregate breakdown based on the google link above.

View attachment 82958

114 seats is being very optimistic for PTI.

That's why I've suggested a few adjustments to the sheet.

If PTI win 90 seats overall next week then they will not form government. No ifs and buts about it.

They need 100 to 105 seats overall for them to form government with the help of independents and smaller parties.

 

[saeedhk]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

https://drive.google.com/open?id=13h5brXNGK00tM20_cqh-sjHjfazgBkAw

I made my own predictions so we can get our shared predictions done here.

I honestly only have limited knowledge, I mainly have ground knowledge on Karachi and some pockets of Punjab and Sindh. The rest I have predicted based on what people have said in this forum, what I have heard from elsewhere, as well as a bit of research. The only area which I mostly guessed was FATA.

Have a look, and we can discuss what needs to be changed. I feel like my prediction is too optimistic, though it was hard to argue against not giving those seats to PTI.

Judging from TV surveys, NA-136 seems to be tilted towards the PTI. It is 60:40 in favour of the PTI.

I feel they can win this seat.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

I hope all those parties fail in this elections who are playing on people’s religious sentiments and finding allies in extremist organisations.

 

[Syed1]

We might have HUGE issue in Pindi area.... not because off lack of support but because of too much support for Imran Khan and PTI.


I've seen three or four surveys from Pindi and majority of people said IK or PTI and many seemed unaware that Shiekh Rashid is the pseudo "PTI candidate" from that area. Alot of times the surveyor had to let the people know that there is no PTI candidate from this area.These people are in for rude awakening on polling day. I hope huge awareness campaigns are going on to let ppl know that Rashid is the "PTI candidate".

 

[Loralai]

I hope all those parties fail in this elections who are playing on people’s religious sentiments and finding allies in extremist organisations.

I hope so too. Playing religious cards for political gain is disgusting.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

I hope so too. Playing religious cards for political gain is disgusting.

It’s counterproductive as well.

 

[PakWarrior]

We might have HUGE issue in Pindi area.... not because off lack of support but because of too much support for Imran Khan and PTI.


I've seen three or four surveys from Pindi and majority of people said IK or PTI and many seemed unaware that Shiekh Rashid is the pseudo "PTI candidate" from that area. Alot of times the surveyor had to let the people know that there is no PTI candidate from this area.These people are in for rude awakening on polling day. I hope huge awareness campaigns are going on to let ppl know that Rashid is the "PTI candidate".

Absolutely correct. There is MASSIVE confusion regarding Sheikh Rasheed. A situation has developed where charged up PTI voters will be going to the ballot to stamp on the bat but will not see the bat. Many don't even know that Sheikh Rasheed is technically PTI. No awareness is being created either.

Only help for this is if Hanif Abbassi gets disqualified on the 21st.

A massive blunder on the cards regarding the Sheikh Rasheed and PTI situation.

 

[PakWarrior]

Guys to form a government a party will need 137 seats.

Do the math guys.

If PTI wins 90 seats then 47 seats aren't even available from the pool of independents and small PTI sympathetic parties. Only solution would be with the help of PPP which isn't going to happen.

Now do you see why it is important that PTI wins a minimum of 100 seats, ideally 105 to 110.

For this to happen things will have to fall into place SPECTACULARLY on election day as in huge youth turnout and swing voters to come out in huge numbers.

 

[DRsohail]

Awesome work Bro.

Just a few changes you should make on the sheet just to play it safe.

1. From Faisalabad give PTI 4 seats not 5. Give it to PMLN. It can be any of the seats that you've given to PTI as we can just do a tally count at the end.

2. From Toba Tek Singh give PTI 1 out of the 3 seats not 2. Give it to PMLN.

3. From Jhang give PTI 1 out of the 3 sears not 2. Give it PPP or just put down independent for the seat.

4. From Lahore give PTI 4 seats not 6. Leave NA125 to Imran and change any two of the other seats to PMLN.

5. From PakPattan give PTI 1 seat not 2. Give it PMLN.

6. From Vehari give PTI 2 out of the 4 seats not 3. Give it to PMLN.

7. From Bahwalpur give PTI 3 seats out of 5 not 4. Give it PMLN.

Everything else is perfect. If you could make the above changes soon and upload it then we can do a final total count.

Thanks.

MAlaknd pti will win over ppp.In upper dir ji is above pti but pti can pull it off as their campaign is quite strong and Ik is going there on 21st.In chitral pti can give tough time.the constituency i know.

 

[awan_from_soon]

PTI
Safe - 42
Leaning - 62

PML-N
Safe - 21
Leaning - 21

PPP
Safe - 23
Leaning - 15

Others
Safe - 13
Leaning - 30

Tossups - 48

I think this is a fairly accurate representation of how things stand. Now playing around with the PTI data a bit (with changes to the FATA predictions):

KPK (39 seats):
Safe: 16
Leaning: 11
Tossups: 4
--------------
Best case: 31
Good case: 27
Worst case: 16
--------------
FATA (12 seats):
Safe: 3 (41, 43, 51)
Leaning: 4 (45, 46, 47, 49)
Tossups: 0
--------------
Best case: 7
Good case: 7
Worst case: 3
--------------
ICT (3 seats):
Safe: 2
Leaning: 1
Tossups: 0
--------------
Best case: 3
Good case: 3
Worst case: 2
--------------
Punjab (141 seats):
Safe: 24
Leaning: 42
Tossups: 25
--------------
Best case: 91
Good case: 66
Worst case: 24
--------------
Sindh (61 seats):
Safe: 0
Leaning: 3
Tossups: 6
--------------
Best case: 9
Good case: 3
Worst case: 0
--------------
Balochistan (16 seats):
Safe: 0
Leaning: 1
Tossups: 2
--------------
Best case: 3
Good case: 1
Worst case: 0
--------------

------------------------------------------

So overall:
If things go unbelievingly well, PTI will end up with around 144 seats - the absolute best case scenario. A more down the middle approach (and most likely in the current situation), around 107 seats. And a disastrous result (on par with the 2013 one, and least likely to happen) would be just 45 seats.

With a week to go till the election, I can safely say that PTI is going to get at least 90 seats. Crossing the threshold of 100 would be best. And any seat above 100 is going to be a bonus.

 

[Syed1]

I think this is a fairly accurate representation of how things stand. Now playing around with the PTI data a bit (with changes to the FATA predictions):

KPK (39 seats):
Safe: 16
Leaning: 11
Tossups: 4
--------------
Best case: 31
Good case: 27
Worst case: 16
--------------
FATA (12 seats):
Safe: 3 (41, 43, 51)
Leaning: 4 (45, 46, 47, 49)
Tossups: 0
--------------
Best case: 7
Good case: 7
Worst case: 3
--------------
ICT (3 seats):
Safe: 2
Leaning: 1
Tossups: 0
--------------
Best case: 3
Good case: 3
Worst case: 2
--------------
Punjab (141 seats):
Safe: 24
Leaning: 42
Tossups: 25
--------------
Best case: 91
Good case: 66
Worst case: 24
--------------
Sindh (61 seats):
Safe: 0
Leaning: 3
Tossups: 6
--------------
Best case: 9
Good case: 3
Worst case: 0
--------------
Balochistan (16 seats):
Safe: 0
Leaning: 1
Tossups: 2
--------------
Best case: 3
Good case: 1
Worst case: 0
--------------

------------------------------------------

So overall:
If things go unbelievingly well, PTI will end up with around 144 seats - the absolute best case scenario. A more down the middle approach (and most likely in the current situation), around 107 seats. And a disastrous result (on par with the 2013 one, and least likely to happen) would be just 45 seats.

With a week to go till the election, I can safely say that PTI is going to get at least 90 seats. Crossing the threshold of 100 would be best. And any seat above 100 is going to be a bonus.

So as per your good case... PTI manages 109 seats. I'd take in a heartbeat.


You guys "predictions" are making me giddy with excitement, but the realist in me still thinks PTI will manage max 80-90 seats.

 

[DRsohail]

[MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION].So if pti does well on election days and for this one week they can do better.I mean 110 seats.

 

[DRsohail]

So as per your good case... PTI manages 109 seats. I'd take in a heartbeat.


You guys "predictions" are making me giddy with excitement, but the realist in me still thinks PTI will manage max 80-90 seats.

With out knowing the name of the poster i was sure it will be none other than syed.

 

[Syed1]

With out knowing the name of the poster i was sure it will be none other than syed.

Haha

 

[awan_from_soon]

We might have HUGE issue in Pindi area.... not because off lack of support but because of too much support for Imran Khan and PTI.


I've seen three or four surveys from Pindi and majority of people said IK or PTI and many seemed unaware that Shiekh Rashid is the pseudo "PTI candidate" from that area. Alot of times the surveyor had to let the people know that there is no PTI candidate from this area.These people are in for rude awakening on polling day. I hope huge awareness campaigns are going on to let ppl know that Rashid is the "PTI candidate".

Absolutely correct. There is MASSIVE confusion regarding Sheikh Rasheed. A situation has developed where charged up PTI voters will be going to the ballot to stamp on the bat but will not see the bat. Many don't even know that Sheikh Rasheed is technically PTI. No awareness is being created either.

Only help for this is if Hanif Abbassi gets disqualified on the 21st.

A massive blunder on the cards regarding the Sheikh Rasheed and PTI situation.

I am sitting here in NA-62 and despite my earlier, pessimistic observations regarding PTI's chances in the area, there is a massive Sheikhu wave building up. The guy has almost neglected his traditional NA-62 constituency and is conducting gatherings in NA-60 areas (particularly the lower middle/middle ones). He is addressing crowds on almost a nightly basis. In view of this, I can say the seat has started to lean towards AML.

I think the rude awakening would be limited to people who are generally detached from politics but are still going to vote PTI on 25th. They are mainly concentrated in the Askari housing societies and Chaklala Scheme III areas. Both of which are outgunned in terms of population density by areas Sheikhu is focusing his campaign on.

Here was his power show in an NA-60 area on the night of Nawaz's incarceration:

 

[awan_from_soon]

I am sitting here in NA-62 > *NA-60 and despite my earlier, pessimistic observations regarding PTI's chances in the area, there is a massive Sheikhu wave building up. The guy has almost neglected his traditional NA-62 constituency and is conducting gatherings in NA-60 areas (particularly the lower middle/middle ones). He is addressing crowds on almost a nightly basis. In view of this, I can say the seat has started to lean towards AML.

Typo

 

[DRsohail]

I am sitting here in NA-62 and despite my earlier, pessimistic observations regarding PTI's chances in the area, there is a massive Sheikhu wave building up. The guy has almost neglected his traditional NA-62 constituency and is conducting gatherings in NA-60 areas (particularly the lower middle/middle ones). He is addressing crowds on almost a nightly basis. In view of this, I can say the seat has started to lean towards AML.

I think the rude awakening would be limited to people who are generally detached from politics but are still going to vote PTI on 25th. They are mainly concentrated in the Askari housing societies and Chaklala Scheme III areas. Both of which are outgunned in terms of population density by areas Sheikhu is focusing his campaign on.

Here was his power show in an NA-60 area on the night of Nawaz's incarceration:

Waht about NA57.Why it is not in pti favor?

 

[awan_from_soon]

So as per your good case... PTI manages 109 seats. I'd take in a heartbeat.


You guys "predictions" are making me giddy with excitement, but the realist in me still thinks PTI will manage max 80-90 seats.

I understand where the realist feeling is coming from - the heartbreak of 2013. We don't want to crossover into that territory of starry-eyed optimism. Believe me I haven't and am yet almost certain that PTI will score a century on the night of 25th. For a couple of reasons mainly:
1. PTI is the only party whose campaign is going ahead at full steam. None other comes close. The wind has gone out of PMLN's sails - so much so they are bringing in Junaid Safdar-Sharif to energize it meanwhile betting heavily on a bail for their supremos. PPP is strong in Sindh and yet still its electioneering can be best described as traffic-jam campaign.
2. Swing voters disheartened by PPP and PMLN is aligning behind PTI on the mantras of 'in ko bhi aik chance milna chahiye' and 'azmaye hue ko dobara azmana bewaqufi hai'.
3. Youngsters whose political awakening came at the height of PTI fever (and who were unable to vote in 2013) are itching to get their hands on the ballot paper so they can stamp bat.
4. PTI's performance in KPK has essentially won them a province that never votes for an outgoing incumbent.
5. A huge bunch of electables - with their enviable election machinery - have joined the party.
6. PTI is more experienced in terms of polling day activities - particularly training of polling agents.
7. PTI has made some good seat adjustments with regional parties.

[MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION].So if pti does well on election days and for this one week they can do better.I mean 110 seats.

Most definitely, the days preceding the election are almost settled. Now the final seat count is entirely upon how PTI manages the actual polling day itself.

 

[waqar goraya]

About polls, not much on my mind but only weather. I have stopped guessing , there is no point in exhausting myself. We will know where things stand by 10 PM on 25th July.

On polling day, i see myself either wet from top to toe with perspiration or unable to set foot outside because of emergence of a canal outside my main-gate.

As of know, analyzing how much rain could fall on 25th July and how widespread it could become. If it is widespread then it could paralyze life in vast areas of Punjab, a heavy rain could also fall in selected areas or few localities. It could rain 200 millimeters in Gujranwala while only 20 mm in Faisalabad. In this case life in Gujranwala would come to a halt and in Faisalabad weather could become pleasant.

The questions remain how elections could be effected in case of widespread rain or limited but heavy rain in few areas. Can elections be postponed in one or 2 regions, say about 30 NA seats while the other country goes to polls.

For PTI, it would be best if it rains very heavy in N league strongholds and elections get postponed in those constituencies, meanwhile PTI builds a heavy lead based upon the other PTI strongholds. Then in re polling people will also vote for PTI in N league dominated areas because they tend to support a party more likely to form a government.

Things are very confusing. The estimates of hung parliament, violence from ISIS/TTP, harsh weather etc. Everything seems to be unsettling and very confusing.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Waht about NA57.Why it is not in pti favor?

Because it is Shahid Khaqan Abbasi's constituency, the outgoing PM. He is still very strong there. But I am expecting a closer fight than 2013.

 

[awan_from_soon]

About polls, not much on my mind but only weather. I have stopped guessing , there is no point in exhausting myself. We will know where things stand by 10 PM on 25th July.

On polling day, i see myself either wet from top to toe with perspiration or unable to set foot outside because of emergence of a canal outside my main-gate.

As of know, analyzing how much rain could fall on 25th July and how widespread it could become. If it is widespread then it could paralyze life in vast areas of Punjab, a heavy rain could also fall in selected areas or few localities. It could rain 200 millimeters in Gujranwala while only 20 mm in Faisalabad. In this case life in Gujranwala would come to a halt and in Faisalabad weather could become pleasant.

The questions remain how elections could be effected in case of widespread rain or limited but heavy rain in few areas. Can elections be postponed in one or 2 regions, say about 30 NA seats while the other country goes to polls.

For PTI, it would be best if it rains very heavy in N league strongholds and elections get postponed in those constituencies, meanwhile PTI builds a heavy lead based upon the other PTI strongholds. Then in re polling people will also vote for PTI in N league dominated areas because they tend to support a party more likely to form a government.

Things are very confusing. The estimates of hung parliament, violence from ISIS/TTP, harsh weather etc. Everything seems to be unsettling and very confusing.

Weather predictions so far out are almost always error-prone. The real weather situation will become clear around Sunday/Monday.

 

[waqar goraya]

Weather predictions so far out are almost always error-prone. The real weather situation will become clear around Sunday/Monday.

Yep, this is one more thing which is nowhere near certainty.

 

[waqar goraya]

So it is not about years, not about months, not about weeks and not even about a week.

It is 7 days to go.

 

[DRsohail]

Weather predictions so far out are almost always error-prone. The real weather situation will become clear around Sunday/Monday.

That independent have joined PTI?? i mean Ghulam Murtaza from NA57.

 

[DRsohail]

 

[awan_from_soon]

That independent have joined PTI?? i mean Ghulam Murtaza from NA57.

This is why it is going to make it a closer fight. Otherwise Shahid Khaqan was winning hands down.

 

[DRsohail]

This is why it is going to make it a closer fight. Otherwise Shahid Khaqan was winning hands down.

Thats good.So we have a chance.

 

[Strike!]

https://youtu.be/0KJ-DeCJbfE
https://youtu.be/C53DQEtB-Gg
https://youtu.be/ghR0Abpwgtc
https://youtu.be/A7Ub-X6ownA
https://youtu.be/BZd9n-EwkX4
https://youtu.be/xur8Drd43u8
https://youtu.be/RdEOCepX-Kg
https://youtu.be/cq3zA5Fstu4
https://youtu.be/0iYuMGEQu08
https://youtu.be/1EiUWuH_5fc
https://youtu.be/YG3kPI6eR5Q
https://youtu.be/I7__GEqFmos
https://youtu.be/kSAtye3t8cg

 

[awan_from_soon]

Thats good.So we have a chance.

Yeah, there is a chance but not a strong one. If Shahid Khaqan had not become PM it would have been touch and go. But currently its advantage SKA.

 

[LegendInzi]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nadia Chaudhry, British Pakistani, central deputy info. secretary for <a href="https://twitter.com/PTIofficial?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PTIofficial</a> goes missing in Pakistan. Acc. to her lawyer, she was about to expose PTI leaders, Shah Mahmood Qureshi & Shah Farman, for alleged sexual assault. Why is no media covering her case? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RecoverNadia?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RecoverNadia</a> <a href="https://t.co/EabknuJKzT">pic.twitter.com/EabknuJKzT</a></p>— Kashif N Chaudhry (@KashifMD) <a href="https://twitter.com/KashifMD/status/1018919454225420289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 16, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Check out the videos she had posted few days ago

Mehkama Zaraat now going after Dep. Information Secretary of PTI. Shame

https://www.facebook.com/nadia.choudhary.988/videos/426439437873557/
https://www.facebook.com/nadia.choudhary.988/videos/426443381206496/

Very worrying this. What a shameful precedence being set regarding abduction of female (polictical) activists. The PTI boot-polshiye who were condoning and celebrating the kidnap of Gul Bukhari, should at least raise their voice on one of their own female political worker. Extremely disgusting.

I wish she returns back safely.

 

[Strike!]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/fHKBuHIGRl">pic.twitter.com/fHKBuHIGRl</a></p>— Asad Kharal (@AsadKharal) <a href="https://twitter.com/AsadKharal/status/1019303282399903750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[PakWarrior]

Guys we must have a proper system in place on here on election day once results start coming in or we start to hear who is leading from a constituency.

I'm sure most of us will be getting results and information from Tv. This will be mainly from Geo, Ary, Samaa and Dunya news etc. So this will be our main source.

But some of us will also get latest poll information and results from other sources such as ground information and even twitter feeds. But I feel we must have a system in place in this thread so that false information is not given.

I remember in the last election in other forums someone would report that so and so candidate is leading as per information they got from someone posting such information on Twitter. Many of these reuslts and information proved to be premature, incorrect and false. Let's NOT do that in this thread on the 25th as it will lead to confusion and frustration.

So what are your suggestions?

If someone gets the result or knows who is leading whom from the Tv or another source how can we ensure that it is accurate? Obsiously we will all know the results late evening on the 25th but nevertheless it will be exciting to post results and info on this thread as and when we get this information but in a RESPONSIBILE manner.

Shall we have a format when posting news or a result? How do we ensure posters don't start posting inaccurate news or results?

 

[LegendInzi]

Guys we must have a proper system in place on here on election day once results start coming in or we start to hear who is leading from a constituency.

I'm sure most of us will be getting results and information from Tv. This will be mainly from Geo, Ary, Samaa and Dunya news etc. So this will be our main source.

But some of us will also get latest poll information and results from other sources such as ground information and even twitter feeds. But I feel we must have a system in place in this thread so that false information is not given.

I remember in the last election in other forums someone would report that so and so candidate is leading as per information they got from someone posting such information on Twitter. Many of these reuslts and information proved to be premature, incorrect and false. Let's NOT do that in this thread on the 25th as it will lead to confusion and frustration.

So what are your suggestions?

If someone gets the result or knows who is leading whom from the Tv or another source how can we ensure that it is accurate? Obsiously we will all know the results late evening on the 25th but nevertheless it will be exciting to post results and info on this thread as and when we get this information but in a RESPONSIBILE manner.

Shall we have a format when posting news or a result? How do we ensure posters don't start posting inaccurate news or results?

Please include the results from Bol TV as well. We can't be trusting other sold-out media reports unless confirmed from Bol itself.

 

[DRsohail]

Check out the videos she had posted few days ago



Very worrying this. What a shameful precedence being set regarding abduction of female (polictical) activists. The PTI boot-polshiye who were condoning and celebrating the kidnap of Gul Bukhari, should at least raise their voice on one of their own female political worker. Extremely disgusting.

I wish she returns back safely.

Thays scary.The Shah Farman guy attitude is not good but Shah Mahmood Qureshi?

 

[DRsohail]

Please include the results from Bol TV as well. We can't be trusting other sold-out media reports unless confirmed from Bol itself.

His information regarding contituences etc is good .Why are you getting annoyed.

 

[LegendInzi]

His information regarding contituences etc is good .Why are you getting annoyed.

Who is getting annoyed. I'm just saying we cannot trust the election day results from Geo, Express etc...We should only post authentic results as they get announced on Bol TV (Pakistan's No. 1 TV channel)

 

[DRsohail]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/fHKBuHIGRl">pic.twitter.com/fHKBuHIGRl</a></p>— Asad Kharal (@AsadKharal) <a href="https://twitter.com/AsadKharal/status/1019303282399903750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Thats is more realistic one i bet.

 

[DRsohail]

Please include the results from Bol TV as well. We can't be trusting other sold-out media reports unless confirmed from Bol itself.

Ok but i think Geo is number one

 

[Strike!]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">News is SS has removed all of Mariam Nawazs social media ppl off the team. Mariam Aurengzaib taking direct orders for more focus on Development than Khalai Makhlooq narrative. Punjab must be retained at all costs.</p>— Meher Bokhari (@meherbokhari) <a href="https://twitter.com/meherbokhari/status/1019295472081653760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">17. Juli 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="hi" dir="ltr">ab Hina Butt se kaun bhes karay Amaad! <a href="https://t.co/BNFf0ODmVn">https://t.co/BNFf0ODmVn</a></p>— Meher Bokhari (@meherbokhari) <a href="https://twitter.com/meherbokhari/status/1019309199250116610?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">17. Juli 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



Good riddance.

 

[LegendInzi]

Ok but i think Geo is number one

They are traitors

 

[Strike!]

https://youtu.be/53IOpSdNsE8
https://youtu.be/3W8V5cB4_eQ
https://youtu.be/H63GtSDBikg
https://youtu.be/Z_Bl8o12TBs

 

[waqar goraya]

Guys we must have a proper system in place on here on election day once results start coming in or we start to hear who is leading from a constituency.

I'm sure most of us will be getting results and information from Tv. This will be mainly from Geo, Ary, Samaa and Dunya news etc. So this will be our main source.

But some of us will also get latest poll information and results from other sources such as ground information and even twitter feeds. But I feel we must have a system in place in this thread so that false information is not given.

I remember in the last election in other forums someone would report that so and so candidate is leading as per information they got from someone posting such information on Twitter. Many of these reuslts and information proved to be premature, incorrect and false. Let's NOT do that in this thread on the 25th as it will lead to confusion and frustration.

So what are your suggestions?

If someone gets the result or knows who is leading whom from the Tv or another source how can we ensure that it is accurate? Obsiously we will all know the results late evening on the 25th but nevertheless it will be exciting to post results and info on this thread as and when we get this information but in a RESPONSIBILE manner.

Shall we have a format when posting news or a result? How do we ensure posters don't start posting inaccurate news or results?

No amateurs in this thread. No doubt this thread will be very busy on election day but mods will also be vigilant.

 

[Syed1]

Guys we must have a proper system in place on here on election day once results start coming in or we start to hear who is leading from a constituency.

I'm sure most of us will be getting results and information from Tv. This will be mainly from Geo, Ary, Samaa and Dunya news etc. So this will be our main source.

But some of us will also get latest poll information and results from other sources such as ground information and even twitter feeds. But I feel we must have a system in place in this thread so that false information is not given.

I remember in the last election in other forums someone would report that so and so candidate is leading as per information they got from someone posting such information on Twitter. Many of these reuslts and information proved to be premature, incorrect and false. Let's NOT do that in this thread on the 25th as it will lead to confusion and frustration.

So what are your suggestions?

If someone gets the result or knows who is leading whom from the Tv or another source how can we ensure that it is accurate? Obsiously we will all know the results late evening on the 25th but nevertheless it will be exciting to post results and info on this thread as and when we get this information but in a RESPONSIBILE manner.

Shall we have a format when posting news or a result? How do we ensure posters don't start posting inaccurate news or results?

Most likely I won't be showing up on PP or this thread from 24th onwards.... since I would be flying and then busy in elections and family (going to Pak to vote, amongst other things).... Inshallah we will get good news on night of 25th

 

[DeadBall]

How will the election results be announced on the same night? Seems very improbable.

 

[hussain.r97]

How will the election results be announced on the same night? Seems very improbable.

Don't they start coming in at night, and then finally get announced the next day?

 

[Strike!]

How will the election results be announced on the same night? Seems very improbable.

By night the votes will have been tallied and the results will start coming in. What happened in 2013 was, the result was delayed in many constituencies and a lack of vigilance from PTI resulted in many results being manipulated in the dead of night.

 

[DeadBall]

By night the votes will have been tallied and the results will start coming in. What happened in 2013 was, the result was delayed in many constituencies and a lack of vigilance from PTI resulted in many results being manipulated in the dead of night.

Don't they start coming in at night, and then finally get announced the next day?

Ok, this makes much more sense.

 

[DeadBall]

By night the votes will have been tallied and the results will start coming in. What happened in 2013 was, the result was delayed in many constituencies and a lack of vigilance from PTI resulted in many results being manipulated in the dead of night.

Yes, I was in Karachi at the time and there was a lot of confusion following the results.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FMohammadJibranNasir%2Fvideos%2F953878694807004%2F&show_text=1&width=267" width="267" height="991" style="borderne;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowTransparency="true" allow="encrypted-media" allowFullScreen="true"></iframe>

 

[Mian]

Yeh Jang waale baba ji to 130 de rahe PTI ko

https://jang.com.pk/news/521981 (Urdu)

 

[Strike!]

Mubashir Luqman has carried out a large survey on South Punjab constituencies.
https://youtu.be/dMo_W4FbASQ

 

[Bewal Express]

Check out the videos she had posted few days ago



Very worrying this. What a shameful precedence being set regarding abduction of female (polictical) activists. The PTI boot-polshiye who were condoning and celebrating the kidnap of Gul Bukhari, should at least raise their voice on one of their own female political worker. Extremely disgusting.

I wish she returns back safely.

I agree that she needs to found safely. Let her expose any criminality amongst whoever she has evidence against. But its interesting that you are quite rightly worried about this lady but not a peep on the murder of 14 people in broad daylight including pregnant women at Modal town. Why no concern for those, or Nooras killing innocent people is ok with.

 

[hussain.r97]

Here’s the link to Jibran Nasir’s manifesto;
http://jibrannasir.com/manifesto.php

I like Jibran Nasir, and I would not mind him winning a seat. It would be great if he formed a party on the centre left, he would do great as a leader and I would really welcome such a party replacing PPP as Pakistan's 'centre-left party'. I thought AWP could fill that void, but on closer inspection AWP are simply too far to the left to achieve that.

 

[hussain.r97]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Our Twitter, FB accounts and website were closed down/hacked for some reason. We are trying to set everything up again so give us a day or two. Thanks.</p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1019186960542453760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Good to see them back! What happened was totally absurd ...

 

[hussain.r97]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/fHKBuHIGRl">pic.twitter.com/fHKBuHIGRl</a></p>— Asad Kharal (@AsadKharal) <a href="https://twitter.com/AsadKharal/status/1019303282399903750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This seems close to realistic, but is this based on surveys or just a prediction?

 

[hussain.r97]

MAlaknd pti will win over ppp.In upper dir ji is above pti but pti can pull it off as their campaign is quite strong and Ik is going there on 21st.In chitral pti can give tough time.the constituency i know.

Good to hear that PTI will probably win Malakand. A survey from 2-3 weeks ago had Bilawal in front by 2 points. I will still treat this one as a tossup for now.

 

[hussain.r97]

[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

Thanks for the suggestions, I have updated the sheet now. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sS7UjPvo4Pi0o69Cz_EMoY0E1XGlKcyDsNMM8FgzEmY/edit?usp=sharing

PTI
Safe - 42
Leaning - 55

PML-N
Safe - 18
Leaning - 26

PPP
Safe - 23
Leaning - 15

Others
Safe - 13
Leaning - 31

Tossups - 49

 

[hussain.r97]

[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

Thanks for the suggestions, I have updated the sheet now. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sS7UjPvo4Pi0o69Cz_EMoY0E1XGlKcyDsNMM8FgzEmY/edit?usp=sharing

PTI
Safe - 42
Leaning - 55

PML-N
Safe - 18
Leaning - 26

PPP
Safe - 23
Leaning - 15

Others
Safe - 13
Leaning - 31

Tossups - 49

So overall, we should probably expect -

PTI - 110
PML-N - 61
PPP - 43
MQM-P - 11
MMA - 9
GDA - 5
PKMAP - 5
PML-Q - 4
BAP - 4
PSP - 3
ANP - 2
AML - 2
BNP - 1
PML-Z - 1
IND - 11

If PTI have a good day, they have winning potential on around 130-140 seats, and if they have a horrible day, they have 42 safe seats.

 

[hussain.r97]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/fHKBuHIGRl">pic.twitter.com/fHKBuHIGRl</a></p>— Asad Kharal (@AsadKharal) <a href="https://twitter.com/AsadKharal/status/1019303282399903750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Another comment on this, people seem to be underrating PPP by about 5-10 seats. From what I know about Sindh, PPP have actually gained popularity and the whole GDA thing has more or less been a failure. GDA, at this stage, are set to lose a couple of sets, while PPP are set to gain a few seats at GDA's expense, as well as about 4 seats in Karachi, a couple of seats in Punjab, and a seat or two in Balochistan. PPP are definitely going to breach 40 seats.

 

[hussain.r97]

Mubashir Luqman has carried out a large survey on South Punjab constituencies.
https://youtu.be/dMo_W4FbASQ

His predictions are more or less the same as the ones I made on the Google doc.

 

[Waseem]

So overall, we should probably expect -

PTI - 110
PML-N - 61
PPP - 43
MQM-P - 11
MMA - 9
GDA - 5
PKMAP - 5
PML-Q - 4
BAP - 4
PSP - 3
ANP - 2
AML - 2
BNP - 1
PML-Z - 1
IND - 11

If PTI have a good day, they have winning potential on around 130-140 seats, and if they have a horrible day, they have 42 safe seats.

Great work bro! I will go home and have a look in more details as can't access at work.

In terms of overall numbers, i still think PTI will be restricted between 80-100 seats. All we can hope for is less seats for PMLN and PPP which will improve chances of PTI forming government without PPP/PMLN.

 

[Waseem]

Please include the results from Bol TV as well. We can't be trusting other sold-out media reports unless confirmed from Bol itself.

I think you have some SERIOUS obsession with Bol Tv, i have hardly ever seen ANYONE even quoting Bol tv except yourself

 

[hussain.r97]

Great work bro! I will go home and have a look in more details as can't access at work.

In terms of overall numbers, i still think PTI will be restricted between 80-100 seats. All we can hope for is less seats for PMLN and PPP which will improve chances of PTI forming government without PPP/PMLN.

I think PTI going beyond 100 seats is largely dependent on turnout. If we see a decent turnout, somewhere near 60% or above, then PTI can potentially achieve my prediction.

Another thing I observed when I went over each seat is that there are a huge amount of independents contesting, but very few are actually electable. Many of the electable independents have either joined one of the three major parties, or are just simply not contesting. I think we will see a record low amount of independents, especially due to FATA also somewhat voting for parties this time, and also the rise of BAP in Balochistan.