Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[Bewal Express]

----BRERAKING NEWS----

Daghi oh sorry i mean Baghi is back in his old party!!! and this is good news for PTI because now we will win this seat comfortably.

When is he and NS getting charged with treason for conspiracy against BB? [MENTION=101697]LegendInzi[/MENTION]

 

[Mian]

Yaad e maazi azaab he ya rab!

 

[Mian]

I cant believe a man like can do such things.then we say deep state k saazish ah democracy k khelaf.

This very same man was minister in dictator zia cabinet! he is not the champion of democracy as he is portrayed in media he also did the looting more than a couple of times even as a minister back in 90s. Just because he faced jail doesn't mean all his sins are washed. These democratic guys are only good when they are in opposition but they show their trule color when in govt best examples are Achakzai, Bazinjo, Khawaja Asif and Hashmi

 

[Syed1]

When will the Nooras realize that this jahil admi is not fighting the "deep state" he is fighting to save his ill-gotten wealth, that's it. He had four years of uninterrupted rule... What did he do to establish civilian supremacy? Heck both army chiefs during his tenure were picked by him.

And lol at that assessment of Noon league forming government again. Party bachi nahi hai kohkli hogayi hai leken huqumat phir bunain gaye haha

 

[Mian]

When will the Nooras realize that this jahil admi is not fighting the "deep state" he is fighting to save his ill-gotten wealth, that's it. He had four years of uninterrupted rule... What did he do to establish civilian supremacy? Heck both army chiefs during his tenure were picked by him.

And lol at that assessment of Noon league forming government again. Party bachi nahi hai kohkli hogayi hai leken huqumat phir bunain gaye haha

He is fighting khalai makhlooq now! so where is thor and his hathora?

 

[Syed1]

He is fighting khalai makhlooq now! so where is thor and his hathora?

Nawaz Sharif is our last hope again Thanos

 

[Syed1]

Also funny that our establishment has so much power that they can bring 200k+ participants to Lahore jalsa but can't make IK win lame Lodhran by-elections


Takes a special type of person to be a patwari

 

[Mian]

Nawaz Sharif is our last hope again Thanos

He is made of steel so probably mian sahab himself is from krypton

 

[Mian]

Also funny that our establishment has so much power that they can bring 200k+ participants to Lahore jalsa but can't make IK win lame Lodhran by-elections


Takes a special type of person to be a patwari

and IK had to struggle for 2 decades to get a yes from deep state

 

[Syed1]

and IK had to struggle for 2 decades to get a yes from deep state

Bhai deep state itni deep hai ke mahaynaaz tajziya-kaar [MENTION=101697]LegendInzi[/MENTION] ko inkay saray plans pata hain

 

[awan_from_soon]

Bhai deep state itni deep hai ke mahaynaaz tajziya-kaar [MENTION=101697]LegendInzi[/MENTION] ko inkay saray plans pata hain

Lol yeah, he can't even be 100% certain on who the deep state is supporting. Maybe its still with Nawaz or is backing Zardari? Very weak argument.

 

[Mian]

Bhai deep state itni deep hai ke mahaynaaz tajziya-kaar [MENTION=101697]LegendInzi[/MENTION] ko inkay saray plans pata hain

haha and deep state is so weak that a sitting dictator Musharraf with all the machinery in hand wasn't able to get clear majority for his ghar ki party in 2002 Elections and had to make alliances with others to get get votes for PM Jamali.

Check this

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Shocking reply to Nawaz Sharif by the khalai Makhlooq&#55357;&#56834;&#55357;&#56834;&#55357;&#56834;<br>@LOveupti <a href="https://twitter.com/sajjadmalikpti?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@sajjadmalikpti</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Zahid9654?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Zahid9654</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Virgo_girl31?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Virgo_girl31</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/MIANaMATEENpti?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MIANaMATEENpti</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/FarhanKVirk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FarhanKVirk</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DrJavariaPHTF?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DrJavariaPHTF</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/mano_samina?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mano_samina</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DuaFatimaPK?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DuaFatimaPK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DrAliya7?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DrAliya7</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DrAyeshaNaveed?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DrAyeshaNaveed</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/i_agent101?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@i_agent101</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/haq1234as?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@haq1234as</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/AamirLiaquat?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AamirLiaquat</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Fayazchohanpti?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Fayazchohanpti</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/FoziaPTI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FoziaPTI</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Rz399?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Rz399</a> <a href="https://t.co/rO4KvybeiI">pic.twitter.com/rO4KvybeiI</a></p>— Kaleem Tariq (@kaleemt17) <a href="https://twitter.com/kaleemt17/status/993023592542633984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Mian]

Have you guys ever wondered if Establishment is so strong why a sitting dictator Musharraf with all the resources and machinery in hand wasn't able to stop PPP from getting those many seats in 2002 GE and why his party PMLQ wasn't able to get clear majority and had to beg others for vote to make a PM? Even the so called MMA (Mullah Military Alliance) was able to blackmail Mush multiple times in his term.

That's the freaking deep state for you with all the world power in hand still at knees!

 

[khanz141]

So I think PTI will gain almost similar or maybe 2-3 more seats in KPK. MMA is probably not much of a threat, in fact I think JI might loose what they had previously.

ANP is probably a bigger threat and they might take 1-2 seats more than previously. Swat could go either way for ANP, MMA, or PTI. Mohammad Amin is always very strong there from JI and ANP has been gaining some ground locally too.

PTI seems very well established at grass roots there but Murad Saeed, while he has done lots of good work, doesn't seem like good at reaching out to locals which could cost him his seat. I just hope Imran Khan and PTI vote bank is enough to get that seat back.

 

[Waseem]

When will the Nooras realize that this jahil admi is not fighting the "deep state" he is fighting to save his ill-gotten wealth, that's it. He had four years of uninterrupted rule... What did he do to establish civilian supremacy? Heck both army chiefs during his tenure were picked by him.

And lol at that assessment of Noon league forming government again. Party bachi nahi hai kohkli hogayi hai leken huqumat phir bunain gaye haha

Majaal hai kisi aik baat ka jawaab de dein ye deep state saazish waalay.
In 2013 it was deep state saazish at it's peak, Pasha was behind the party and he will bring Imran to power and what happens in the end? 6/148 seats in Punjab where all the manipulation happens (Balochistan different case). Seriously? So how does the so called saazish fail to get Imran Khan even 10% seats after record breaking jalsas?

And then they say Nawaz Sharif ab sudhar gaya hai REALLY??

He was sent to exile, returned and ran non stop campaign against elected PM Gilani to resign because he refused to write letter, FAR FAR less a crime than Nawaz Sharif.

Now that Nawaz is actually exposed in leaks which no one in Pakistan could control, apparently he is fighting for DEMOCRACY

 

[Waseem]

two wrongs don't make a right.

if Sharifs learned their lesson in 20 years, the country cannot wait for IK to learn his in another 20 years

So just because you leader leader Nawaz Sharif is not being allowed to carry on with boot polishing after about 40 years of service, you think everyone is as greedy, self centered and selfish like him??

A journalist was telling just yesterday that Nawaz Sharif was once seen by a journalist in late 70s on hall road, he was looking for colour TV (which was a privilege back then) because his father told him that he should keep the generals happy
Then his BMW gifts and brief cases are also famous and even took a brief case to Zahoor Elahi who sent him back saying we give it to people ourselves.

No on can match Sharif's boot polishing skills, he hasn't retired yet from polishing either, jut outsourced to his brother Shahbaz who is struggling to match Nawaz Sharif.

 

[hussain.r97]

Updated Habib Akram survey result compilations [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION]

Let me know if I missed any. There are a lot of them online, but not all of them seem to have the percentages at the end.

 

[DRsohail]

Updated Habib Akram survey result compilations [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION]

Let me know if I missed any. There are a lot of them online, but not all of them seem to have the percentages at the end.

So in gujrat alliance with PMLQ can snatch them some seats.i mean for PTI/..

 

[Syed2015]

Todays survey results from Shangla. Very unexpected result. Shangla was supposed to be one of the weaker areas for PTI in KP. Seems like PTI is headed for a literal clean sweep in KP this time around unless something drastic happens.

 

[Syed2015]

View attachment 81476

Todays survey results from Shangla. Very unexpected result. Shangla was supposed to be one of the weaker areas for PTI in KP. Seems like PTI is headed for a literal clean sweep in KP this time around unless something drastic happens.

For reference: This was the result of this constituency last time around..

 

[Waseem]

Yea Shangla is the weakest seat for PTI and they will find it hard to win it. Swat although is still possible although people are not happy with Murad Saeed but still they are appreciating the party and the reforms.

You spoke too soon [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] Even i am surprised how much PTI has gained, if they can win this seat and Mansehra seat then they can win ANY seat in KPK.

 

[Mian]

You spoke too soon [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] Even i am surprised how much PTI has gained, if they can win this seat and Mansehra seat then they can win ANY seat in KPK.

haha year true if they endup winning these 2 seats than i am expecting a clean sweep in KP!

 

[Mian]

Ameer Maqam Tabah de

 

[Strike!]

View attachment 81476

Todays survey results from Shangla. Very unexpected result. Shangla was supposed to be one of the weaker areas for PTI in KP. Seems like PTI is headed for a literal clean sweep in KP this time around unless something drastic happens.

Yeh to kuch zaada ni hogya waisay?

 

[Mian]

Habib Akram ne PTI se lifafa to nae paker lya

 

[Mian]

Wow ALH really knows the nature of Karachi crowd! I have never seen PTI Karachi crowd chanting like they are doing now during ALH speech.

 

[Mian]

Excellent 10 point manifesto for Karachi by IK

10. Employment
9. Mass Transit/Circular Railways
8. Environmental Reforms
7. Sports infrastructure for youth
6. Electricity
5. Industry/Investment Revival
4. Police Reforms
3. Health Reforms/Govt Hospitals
2. Educational Reforms/Govt Schools
1. Water Crisis

 

[awan_from_soon]

Very average jalsa in Karachi in a small ground. Only ALH speech was good. IK's points were okay but his speech was too drawn out and at times generic. Of his 10 points, only KCR and water pertained to Karachi directly. The rest was the same stuff recycled from the Lahore jalsa. And then he committed the faux pas of equating his Taliban Khan time with PTM. Further still, he didn't bash Nawaz enough on his Mumbai attack statement and instead went on about "Nawaz should have taken action." Overall, a very mediocre show. I don't see this jalsa helping PTI in Karachi. My generous estimate is 2-3 seats still. We might end up winning only one seat (either ALH or Arif Alvi).

 

[waqar goraya]

I guess PTI not keen to gain a lot of seats from Karachi themselves. Except PPP whoever wins they will likely be a part of coalition government. So, even if PPP wins 3/4 seats, the rest belongs to PSP, MQM and PTI.
The battleground is Punjab.

 

[awan_from_soon]

I guess PTI not keen to gain a lot of seats from Karachi themselves. Except PPP whoever wins they will likely be a part of coalition government. So, even if PPP wins 3/4 seats, the rest belongs to PSP, MQM and PTI.
The battleground is Punjab.

But the NA seats do matter a lot.

Whats your prediction for Karachi seats? Also, after listening to PTI's jalsa today, I feel like they are still stuck in the 2013 electioneering dynamic of a violence-prone Karachi; even as security situation has improved drastically in the city. Now PTI's focus should be city-centric reforms (which only IK touched upon) instead of the old rhetoric of bhatta, boris, and target killers.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Habib Akram ne PTI se lifafa to nae paker lya

Or worse...he is inducing complacency among PTI candidates? /tinfoilON

 

[awan_from_soon]

Ameer Maqam Tabah de

Here is the survey video. 4 major takeaways:

1. PTI's candidate, Shaukat Yousafzai is very strong and active here.
2. People are impressed by PTI's anti-corruption and pro-institutional reform performance.
3. Amir Muqam and his brother Ibadullah are very much engaged in buying votes here for years (mostly by supplying water pipes and tanks to local residents so that they can get and store water from the Indus).
4. Finally and most importantly, PTI has provided these people with direct water access for the first time in 60 years. This is a major swing point for many. And it directly curtails Amir's ability to buy votes via water supply equipment.

So, now the 69% number makes a lot of sense.

 

[Mian]

Here is the survey video. 4 major takeaways:

1. PTI's candidate, Shaukat Yousafzai is very strong and active here.
2. People are impressed by PTI's anti-corruption and pro-institutional reform performance.
3. Amir Muqam and his brother Ibadullah are very much engaged in buying votes here for years (mostly by supplying water pipes and tanks to local residents so that they can get and store water from the Indus).
4. Finally and most importantly, PTI has provided these people with direct water access for the first time in 60 years. This is a major swing point for many. And it directly curtails Amir's ability to buy votes via water supply equipment.

So, now the 69% number makes a lot of sense.

Ahaa wasn't sure about the water issue and great to see Shaukat Yousafzai making it his constituency although he is from Shangla but he was MPA from Peshawar where he is living from years. Another interesting thing to see will be who wins Chitral seat this time because in 2013 APML of Mush ended up winning this seat thanks to Mush vote bank there but this time PTI did work there on ground and even in 2013 their margin of defeat wasn't big but all other parties also got big number of votes on that seat it looks like every part got votebank there. From GE2013: APML 29k, PTI 24k, JI 20k, PPP 20k, JUIF 16k

 

[waqar goraya]

But the NA seats do matter a lot.

Whats your prediction for Karachi seats? Also, after listening to PTI's jalsa today, I feel like they are still stuck in the 2013 electioneering dynamic of a violence-prone Karachi; even as security situation has improved drastically in the city. Now PTI's focus should be city-centric reforms (which only IK touched upon) instead of the old rhetoric of bhatta, boris, and target killers.

No doubt these matter. But i think PTI have an idea of their true strength in Karachi, they have no organisation there, hence have given up on winning a sizable seats from their. The party knows that only thing stopping them from gaining majority is N league and its central Punjab strength.
My understanding of Karachi is very limited.
Only watched 7 minutes of ALH. I believe both National and local dynamics matter in Karachi. PTI got huge support in 2013 because of national narrative but that support could not be consolidated because of poor party organisation. No body knows who is doing what and how.
Nevertheless, the local issues remain key in Karachi, particularly administrative issues. Karachiites feel that they need some one who could own the city , improve governance, infrastructure. There is no doubt that sizable lower income population still associates itself with Muhajar identity.

But it seems that people want direct interaction with their leadership, they want them accessible and easily available. Two political forces in the past JI and MQM had that connection with voters because of their supreme organisation and middle class roots. On the other hand PTI leadership is mostly high income people, detached from common people , and have no organisation in their ranks.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Ahaa wasn't sure about the water issue and great to see Shaukat Yousafzai making it his constituency although he is from Shangla but he was MPA from Peshawar where he is living from years. Another interesting thing to see will be who wins Chitral seat this time because in 2013 APML of Mush ended up winning this seat thanks to Mush vote bank there but this time PTI did work there on ground and even in 2013 their margin of defeat wasn't big but all other parties also got big number of votes on that seat it looks like every part got votebank there. From GE2013: APML 29k, PTI 24k, JI 20k, PPP 20k, JUIF 16k

Two words - Lowari Tunnel. Much of APML's votebank there is due to Musharaf's initiative on the stalled Lowari Tunnel. With PMLN inaugurating it in 2017, I won't be surprised if they win the seat. Lowar Tunnel is like a lifeline for Chitral. Major swing point.

 

[Mian]

Two words - Lowari Tunnel. Much of APML's votebank there is due to Musharaf's initiative on the stalled Lowari Tunnel. With PMLN inaugurating it in 2017, I won't be surprised if they win the seat. Lowar Tunnel is like a lifeline for Chitral. Major swing point.

True that tunnel was the whole reason of Mush winning from there

 

[awan_from_soon]

No doubt these matter. But i think PTI have an idea of their true strength in Karachi, they have no organisation there, hence have given up on winning a sizable seats from their. The party knows that only thing stopping them from gaining majority is N league and its central Punjab strength.
My understanding of Karachi is very limited.
Only watched 7 minutes of ALH. I believe both National and local dynamics matter in Karachi. PTI got huge support in 2013 because of national narrative but that support could not be consolidated because of poor party organisation. No body knows who is doing what and how.
Nevertheless, the local issues remain key in Karachi, particularly administrative issues. Karachiites feel that they need some one who could own the city , improve governance, infrastructure. There is no doubt that sizable lower income population still associates itself with Muhajar identity.

But it seems that people want direct interaction with their leadership, they want them accessible and easily available. Two political forces in the past JI and MQM had that connection with voters because of their supreme organisation and middle class roots. On the other hand PTI leadership is mostly high income people, detached from common people , and have no organisation in their ranks.

The lack of organization point is very important and often brought up by PTI supporters across the board. And the party has only themselves to blame for that. They had 5 years to capitalize on the mandate they got in 2013 and they didn't.

My expectation is 2-3 seats for PTI in GE 2018. IK, AA, and ALH are all probable winners. Khurram Sher Zamman is a very good politician as well and works on the grassroot level. Probably the only member of PTI's Karachi old guard that actually understands the politics of the city. He should be given a NA ticket.

 

[awan_from_soon]

True that tunnel was the whole reason of Mush winning from there

Just discovered the concept of gath - where a whole village or set of villages backs a single candidate irrespective of party affiliation. Now I have a better understanding of why rural Punjab is so resistant to change. When you have concepts like these in politics, electables get dominant.

Here is its manifestation in NA-136 (old NA-128). Thankfully, in PTI's favor this time. Watch from 8:33 onwards:

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I want to thank the Karachiites for their Junoon and support for PTI's agenda for change. <a href="https://t.co/I49b9NpE6L">pic.twitter.com/I49b9NpE6L</a></p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/995566726334025728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 13, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Mian]

Just discovered the concept of gath - where a whole village or set of villages backs a single candidate irrespective of party affiliation. Now I have a better understanding of why rural Punjab is so resistant to change. When you have concepts like these in politics, electables get dominant.

Here is its manifestation in NA-136 (old NA-128). Thankfully, in PTI's favor this time. Watch from 8:33 onwards:

Unfortunately this is true for rural Punjab even in my own village beraadris do dua-e-khaer to vote for a candidate as a whole beraadri and thn stick to the decision no matter which party he belongs to.

 

[Mian]

PTI chances in Gujarat increased by this new joining of sitting PMLN MNA from there today

 

[Mian]

PML-N to benefit as rifts emerge in PTI over party tickets

PESHAWAR: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is likely to lose its majority in its stronghold in PK 71 after PTI workers stood up and demanded that the constituency’s candidate and no other will be supported during next general polls.

The split over the issue at PK-10 [now PK-71 after delimitation] is likely to benefit Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) since PTI workers refused supporting PTI candidate, the incumbent provincial Minister for Information Shah Farman who won the provincial assembly seat during general polls 2013 from the constituency.

The reason behind the loss is differences over party ticket as locals want to launch a resident of the constituency for the slot Farman is said to be reluctant and wants to contest polls from two different constituencies including his hometown, now PK-70 and PK-71 [former PK-10 where he got elected from during last polls].

Farman managed to defeat Awami National Party (ANP) candidate Khushdil Khan despite having been ANP’s stronghold in general elections however locals from Koh-e-Daman, comprising five union councils don’t want Farman in the provincial assembly anymore.

“Yes, this is a fact that people from Koh-e-Daman are happy for what Farman has done for the constituency but the area comprising five major union councils including Azakhail, Mattani, Adezai, Sherkera and parts of Maryamzai want their own candidate,” a Farman’s close aide informed.

He stated Farman has been confronted with immense pressure since all those who have stood against Farman, represent the area in local government however added, the ultimate beneficiary will be Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).

“The only political party which challenges PTI is PML-N since after delimitation, ANP has lost a huge number of voters and it does not have enough voters to help it win the provincial assembly seat,” he said.

A campaign has been launched on social media at the same time asking Farman to refrain from contesting polls on PK-71.

“We have come to know that Shah Farman plans to contest polls from two different constituencies including ours but we will resist,” PTI Town-4 member from Union Council Maryamzai Malik Sardar told The Express Tribune.

He stated that it was the constituency’s right to have its own representatives and if Farman [being head of the province’s central zone] refused to give party ticket to candidate from Koh-e-Daman, the area residents resist and its candidate will contest polls as independent candidate.

When asked if it ended up in losing polls, Sardar stated the party leadership must consider nature of the issue and refrain Farman from contesting polls from PK-71 adding ‘if we want to contest polls, party leadership must consider us otherwise party leadership will be responsible for failure.’

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1708739/1-pml-n-benefit-rifts-emerge-pti-party-tickets/

 

[Waseem]

^^ That was always going to happen, as unfortunate as it is PTI can't do anything about it.

PMLN manages to accommodate a lot more people but PTI can't do that so be prepared to lose lot of people. This will be even worse in KPK, i heard 60 applicants applied for ticket on PK73.

 

[Syed1]

Updated Habib Akram survey result compilations [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION]

Let me know if I missed any. There are a lot of them online, but not all of them seem to have the percentages at the end.

Thanks... seems like PTI is leading in majority of areas polled. Augurs well for the future... what do you make of the size of the Karachi jalsa. I saw a glimpse of IK's speech and it seemed a sizable crowd and a packed house, but from what I read on here it wasn't an impressive show.

 

[awan_from_soon]

PML-N to benefit as rifts emerge in PTI over party tickets

PESHAWAR: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is likely to lose its majority in its stronghold in PK 71 after PTI workers stood up and demanded that the constituency’s candidate and no other will be supported during next general polls...................
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1708739/1-pml-n-benefit-rifts-emerge-pti-party-tickets/

While, unfortunate, but it is my understanding that these type of things won't impact PTI that much in KP because the party has been able to build a solid votebank there that is by and large free of personality influence.

On the other hand, such occurrences in Punjab would be the ones that should be disturbing PTI because of the biradri and gath system here.

 

[last_knight]

Interviews start from day after tomorrow for PTI-Ticket Applicants. Punjab it is I assume. That very day, Two applicants will be shortlisted for each constituency, be it Provincial or National. Shortlisted ones will probably meet with IK and his panel of 2-3 before IK nominates final tickets allocations. As I said in an earlier post, Ticket allocation will weigh upto 30-40 % contribution towards win or loss.

This shouldn't take more than a week. 2013 nominations were announced at 11th hour and Candidates were racing against time for campaign.

 

[waqar goraya]

PTI chances in Gujarat increased by this new joining of sitting PMLN MNA from there today

Who joined?

 

[Mian]

Who joined?

The sitting MPA from this seat Ch M Ashraf

 

[awan_from_soon]

The sitting MPA from this seat Ch M Ashraf

You mentioned MNA in your original message. Got my hopes up

 

[Mian]

You mentioned MNA in your original message. Got my hopes up

oh sorry that was a typo i heard this MPA comes under the NA seat of Kaira

 

[Syed1]

So Nawaz Sharif has completely bombed any chase that PML-N had in the elections.


#Thank you Nawaz Sharif

 

[hussain.r97]

I guess PTI not keen to gain a lot of seats from Karachi themselves. Except PPP whoever wins they will likely be a part of coalition government. So, even if PPP wins 3/4 seats, the rest belongs to PSP, MQM and PTI.
The battleground is Punjab.

PPP have made huge gains during MQMs mess 2 months ago. They are extremely organised at ground level, and have made serious inroads in working class areas across Karachi.

PTI are so poorly organised at ground level in Karachi, they could not capitalise. Leadership are absolutely useless and have done nothing in the last 5 years. PTI should have really worked hard in Karachi after the last elections, but unfortunately nothing has changed.

I still think PTI will win 4-5 seats, but it will be purely be due to ideological voters, as well as a few teams of workers who worked hard on their own, separate from PTI leadership.

 

[hussain.r97]

Thanks... seems like PTI is leading in majority of areas polled. Augurs well for the future... what do you make of the size of the Karachi jalsa. I saw a glimpse of IK's speech and it seemed a sizable crowd and a packed house, but from what I read on here it wasn't an impressive show.

The ground was full, but it was a really small ground, overall, I would say it was really average. Amir Liaqut's speech was good, but Imran Khan's speech was average and mostly seemed recycled from the Lahore speech. There were some good points he made about Karachi overall.

The biggest failure was the fact that, once again, everything was extremely disorganised. A lot of volunteers arrived at the camp to find that leadership were nowhere to be found, there was no one there to give them tasks, just a bunch of people sitting around, drinking chai, and talking. A lot of really keen workers who only joined recently, quit because they felt they were wasting their time.

 

[awan_from_soon]

PPP have made huge gains during MQMs mess 2 months ago. They are extremely organised at ground level, and have made serious inroads in working class areas across Karachi.

PTI are so poorly organised at ground level in Karachi, they could not capitalise. Leadership are absolutely useless and have done nothing in the last 5 years. PTI should have really worked hard in Karachi after the last elections, but unfortunately nothing has changed.

I still think PTI will win 4-5 seats, but it will be purely be due to ideological voters, as well as a few teams of workers who worked hard on their own, separate from PTI leadership.

Since you seem to be aware of the onground situation, how do you see the final party-wise seat tally in Karachi?

 

[awan_from_soon]

So Nawaz Sharif has completely bombed any chase that PML-N had in the elections.


#Thank you Nawaz Sharif

Don't think so. Many of the city-based Noon voters are jahil people who don't care about such issues as can be seen in the TV surveys. Even if they think its a big deal, it still only serves his anti-agencian rhetoric - nothing more, nothing less.

On the rural front, as long as PMLN has a hold on biradri electables, they are not out of the race.

 

[saeedhk]

Another Punjab MPA set to join the PTI soon.

 

[hussain.r97]

Since you seem to be aware of the onground situation, how do you see the final party-wise seat tally in Karachi?

I'd say:

Approximately:
MQM - 8-14
PTI - 2-5
PPP - 2-4
PSP - 1-2

If I really had to choose an exact number:
MQM - 12
PTI - 4 (NA-243 Gulshan (Imran Khan), NA-245 Garden (Aamir Liaquat), NA-247 (Arif Alvi), and one of NA-239, 242, 244, 248, 251, 254, 256)
PPP - 3 (NA-236 Malir Rural, NA-238 Malir , NA-246 Lyari)
PSP - 1 (NA-240 or NA-241)

-MQM are basically in damage control mode and are trying to lose as less seats as possible. I personally see them losing 6-8 seats.
-PTI are mainly competing with MQM in District East and District Central. They have an outside chance for the Shah Faisal Colony seat, and some District West seats too.
-PPP have rallied a lot of support in poor areas. They are a serious threat to Arif Alvi's seat because there are a lot of poor areas in that constituency, it's not only DHA and Clifton. PPP are also looking decent in Malir, Korangi, and District West.
-PSP are mainly in contention for the Korangi seats.

 

[awan_from_soon]

I'd say:

Approximately:
MQM - 8-14
PTI - 2-5
PPP - 2-4
PSP - 1-2

If I really had to choose an exact number:
MQM - 12
PTI - 4 (NA-243 Gulshan (Imran Khan), NA-245 Garden (Aamir Liaquat), NA-247 (Arif Alvi), and one of NA-239, 242, 244, 248, 251, 254, 256)
PPP - 3 (NA-236 Malir Rural, NA-238 Malir , NA-246 Lyari)
PSP - 1 (NA-240 or NA-241)

-MQM are basically in damage control mode and are trying to lose as less seats as possible. I personally see them losing 6-8 seats.
-PTI are mainly competing with MQM in District East and District Central. They have an outside chance for the Shah Faisal Colony seat, and some District West seats too.
-PPP have rallied a lot of support in poor areas. They are a serious threat to Arif Alvi's seat because there are a lot of poor areas in that constituency, it's not only DHA and Clifton. PPP are also looking decent in Malir, Korangi, and District West.
-PSP are mainly in contention for the Korangi seats.

I think, this is a very good analysis. But, if my understanding is correct, aren't there 21 seats for Karachi in the new delims? NA-236 to NA-256? I say that because the old Jacobabad district lost one of its 3 seats in Sindh. Now it is one each for Jacobabad and Kashmore Districts. That one seat got accommodated in Karachi. I think with a +1 in Malir.

 

[hussain.r97]

I think, this is a very good analysis. But, if my understanding is correct, aren't there 21 seats for Karachi in the new delims? NA-236 to NA-256? I say that because the old Jacobabad district lost one of its 3 seats in Sindh. Now it is one each for Jacobabad and Kashmore Districts. That one seat got accommodated in Karachi. I think with a +1 in Malir.

Oh yes, I miscounted. I think I would add an extra seat to PPP from District West or Malir, taking them to 4 seats.

 

[Mian]

Khan is serious about the creation of South Punjab province. IK has notified a 6 member Action Committee that would give a roadmap for the creation of Janubi Punjab sooba.

 

[Mian]

Great News from Chakwal guys! Sardar Ghulam Abbas left PMLN today and is expected to join PTI soon. He is the biggest electable from Chakwal District and influence all constituencies of Chakwal. In North Punjab the weakest district of PTI was Chakwal and with his expected joining results will be different. To give you an idea of his popularity although he lost the seat but still he as Ind got 1 lakh votes from NA-60 in GE2013. He made his votebank when he was District Nazim of Chakwal.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Great News from Chakwal guys! Sardar Ghulam Abbas left PMLN today and is expected to join PTI soon. He is the biggest electable from Chakwal District and influence all constituencies of Chakwal. In North Punjab the weakest district of PTI was Chakwal and with his expected joining results will be different. To give you an idea of his popularity although he lost the seat but still he as Ind got 1 lakh votes from NA-60 in GE2013. He made his votebank when he was District Nazim of Chakwal.

I don't trust this guy. I remember he was with PTI during the runup to the 2013 elections and then abruptly left the party before the elections. A couple years ago he went into PMLN's camp, and is now coming back. Electable maybe but not trustworthy.

 

[Mian]

I don't trust this guy. I remember he was with PTI during the runup to the 2013 elections and then abruptly left the party before the elections. A couple years ago he went into PMLN's camp, and is now coming back. Electable maybe but not trustworthy.

True he is like Major Tahir of Attock both are electable with massive votebank and built their votebank when they were district nazims but their egos are too big. But it's also reality you can't ignore them.

 

[Syed1]

True he is like Major Tahir of Attock both are electable with massive votebank and built their votebank when they were district nazims but their egos are too big. But it's also reality you can't ignore them.

How many seats there are in "North Punjab" and how many does PTI stand a chance of winning?

 

[Syed1]

PTI needs to win KPK, South Punjab, North Punjab and a few seats from Karachi. KPK and South Punjab are almost in the bag. Karachi they could either perform splendidly or just about manage a seat or two, depends on the time and effort put in. The last piece of the puzzle is North Punjab.

 

[hussain.r97]

How many seats there are in "North Punjab" and how many does PTI stand a chance of winning?

There are about 20 seats in "North Punjab", and PTI have a reasonable chance of winning those seats if they work hard there. Rawalpindi may be difficult due to a few PML-N heavyweights there, but the rest of the seats will be interesting to watch.

PTI needs to win KPK, South Punjab, North Punjab and a few seats from Karachi. KPK and South Punjab are almost in the bag. Karachi they could either perform splendidly or just about manage a seat or two, depends on the time and effort put in. The last piece of the puzzle is North Punjab.

Unfortunately don't see Karachi leadership putting in any time or effort anytime soon. The whole lot of them are more interested in their positions, less interested in winning the election.

Other than that, it is important PTI does win a few seats in central Punjab to ensure that they don't only form government, but also form a strong government

 

[Mian]

How many seats there are in "North Punjab" and how many does PTI stand a chance of winning?

The real north Punjab is only 4 Districts (Attock Rawalpindi Chakwal and Jehlum) there are 13 NA seats there but some parts of Sargodha, Khushab, Gujrat (Kharian Tehsil) and Mandi Bahaudin are also counted as North Punjab. One thing that is common in North Punjab is that it is heavily influenced by Pak Army there is a foji jawan from every street there so the anti army manjan is hard to sell there and electables from there will jump the ship if you become anti army.

Now coming back to your points i can see PTI winning both of the Attock seats (in case there are no massive groupings after tickets allocation), Will win 1 out of 2 Chakwal seats (in case Sardar Ghulam Ababs joins), Will probably win 1 out of 2 Jehlum seats (Fawad Ch is pretty strong there).

There are 7 NA seats in Rawalpindi and i can see PTI's Ghulam Sarwar Khan (a rival of Ch Nisar) winning the Taxila/Wah seat, Sheikh Rasheed winning his NA seat, PTI will win Saddar/Cantt area seat too, Fayyaz Chohan will be the candidate from the NA seat from where IK won last time against Hanif Abbasi so it's gonna be a tricky one because last time Chohan won as MPA from there but will he be able to win NA seat? Ch Nisar in any case will his NA seat as Ind or PMLN candidate. The rest of the 2 seats can go either way.

 

[Mian]

For those interested to see new NA seats detail after delims please check this pdf file https://www.ecp.gov.pk/Documents/delimitation2018finalissued/National Assembly.pdf

 

[awan_from_soon]

How many seats there are in "North Punjab" and how many does PTI stand a chance of winning?

North Punjab constitutes of the Potohar range as well as a belt of contiguous districts on the North end of Punjab:
1. Attock (2)
2. Rawalpindi (7)
3. Jehlum (2)
4. Gujrat (4)
5. Sialkot (5)
6. Narowal (2)
6. Chakwal (2)
7. Mianwali (2)
-----------
Total: 26 seats
-----------
PTI has great chances on all seats apart from the 2 in Narowal (on the city seat Abrarul Haq can give tough time but I don't see him beat Ahsan Iqbal), 3 in rural Sialkot, 3 seats in Rawalpindi (Murree, Gujar Khan, Rawalpindi Rural). Gujrat is dependent upon seat adjustment with Chaudhries, so that goes out the equation as well.
------------
So:
High probability count: 14
My estimated conversion: 8-10 seats.

 

[Mian]

North Punjab constitutes of the Potohar range as well as a belt of contiguous districts on the North end of Punjab:
1. Attock (2)
2. Rawalpindi (7)
3. Jehlum (2)
4. Gujrat (4)
5. Sialkot (5)
6. Narowal (2)
6. Chakwal (2)
7. Mianwali (2)
-----------
Total: 26 seats
-----------
PTI has great chances on all seats apart from the 2 in Narowal (on the city seat Abrarul Haq can give tough time but I don't see him beat Ahsan Iqbal), 3 in rural Sialkot, 3 seats in Rawalpindi (Murree, Gujar Khan, Rawalpindi Rural). Gujrat is dependent upon seat adjustment with Chaudhries, so that goes out the equation as well.
------------
So:
High probability count: 14
My estimated conversion: 8-10 seats.

I think there are more chances of Khushab and Mandi being counted as North Punjab than Narowal/Sialkot. Also Mianwali is an interesting case it falls under both South and North because of the geo location.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Sheikh Rasheed being spot on, for once.

 

[the Great Khan]

North Punjab constitutes of the Potohar range as well as a belt of contiguous districts on the North end of Punjab:
1. Attock (2)
2. Rawalpindi (7)
3. Jehlum (2)
4. Gujrat (4)
5. Sialkot (5)
6. Narowal (2)
6. Chakwal (2)
7. Mianwali (2)
-----------
Total: 26 seats
-----------
PTI has great chances on all seats apart from the 2 in Narowal (on the city seat Abrarul Haq can give tough time but I don't see him beat Ahsan Iqbal), 3 in rural Sialkot, 3 seats in Rawalpindi (Murree, Gujar Khan, Rawalpindi Rural). Gujrat is dependent upon seat adjustment with Chaudhries, so that goes out the equation as well.
------------
So:
High probability count: 14
My estimated conversion: 8-10 seats.

Could he use Sheikh rashid and others to make a deal with the Chaudhries? they have no love for the PPP or Nawaz and could help IK out..

 

[Mian]

Our last PM Raja Pervez Ashraf lost the elections from his constituency Tehsil Gujjar Khan of Rawalpindi even after investing 27 billions there but the chances of current PM Khaqan Abbas winning from Murree are quite high he always endup winning this seat. Interestingly last PPP's PM and current PMLN's PM both are from Rawalpindi (although different tehsils)

 

[Mian]

Could he use Sheikh rashid and others to make a deal with the Chaudhries? they have no love for the PPP or Nawaz and could help IK out..

Chaudheries are hurt because PTI imported their last remaining strong candidates from Punjab even their brother in law from Attock and Punjab GS from Faisalabad Ch Pervez Ellahi won a seat from Attock because of his brother in law back in 2008 after losing in Gujrat

 

[Syed1]

Thanks for the info guys... seems like PTI position in North Punjab is 50-50 at the moment. I would have thought it would be higher since places like Jehlum/Pindi etc provide the bulk of our recruits for the armed forces and Nawaz Sharif's tirade against the army would make him severely unpopular there.

 

[awan_from_soon]

I think there are more chances of Khushab and Mandi being counted as North Punjab than Narowal/Sialkot. Also Mianwali is an interesting case it falls under both South and North because of the geo location.

If you consider North Punjab as purely the Potohar Plateau then, of course, it will be restricted. But I am just clumping these districts together on the basis of being one contiguous block with Potohar. Plus they share quite similar trends in education, weather, infrastructure, awareness, and exceptional love for the army.

As for Mianwali, I don't see it as in the South in any scenario. It borders Chakwal to the East and Bhakkar to the South.

 

[Mian]

Thanks for the info guys... seems like PTI position in North Punjab is 50-50 at the moment. I would have thought it would be higher since places like Jehlum/Pindi etc provide the bulk of our recruits for the armed forces and Nawaz Sharif's tirade against the army would make him severely unpopular there.

Also literacy rate is high there if you compare with central or south punjab.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Chaudheries are hurt because PTI imported their last remaining strong candidates from Punjab even their brother in law from Attock and Punjab GS from Faisalabad Ch Pervez Ellahi won a seat from Attock because of his brother in law back in 2008 after losing in Gujrat

Chaudhries should go by the axiom enemy of my enemy is my friend. Will help them. Because there is an issue of PML-Q's viability as a political force as well. Why would people vote for a party that is reduced to a single district with no chance of going in government unless in a chancy coalition? I predict, if PMLQ doesn't make a seat adjustment with PTI, a lot of swing vote will go to PTI because they are the only party in Punjab, apart from PMLN, that have the chance of forming a government in the Center. PMLQ was decimated in 2013. Tough to recover from that.

 

[Mian]

If you consider North Punjab as purely the Potohar Plateau then, of course, it will be restricted. But I am just clumping these districts together on the basis of being one contiguous block with Potohar. Plus they share quite similar trends in education, weather, infrastructure, awareness, and exceptional love for the army.

As for Mianwali, I don't see it as in the South in any scenario. It borders Chakwal to the East and Bhakkar to the South.

The South Sooba movement guys in past wanted to add DI Khan and Mianwali too. Mianwali's Punjabi is heavily influenced by Seraiki or i will say it's a mixture of Punjabi+Seraiki not pure Punjabi and not Seraiki either

 

[Syed1]

Also literacy rate is high there if you compare with central or south punjab.

Style of Punjabi spoken is different in North Punjab too right? I mean if someone from Lahore speaks Punjabi I understand upto 80-90% of it, but I have a friend from Jehlum and he was talking to his folks on the phone in his native language and most of it was going over my head.