Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[Mian]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A leading brokerage house Top line securities in a report expects <br>75% probability that the new coalition Govt. will be led by PTI independents; smaller parties. In a poll of leading Corporates and Fund Managers, 77% believe PTI to lead the next govt.</p>— Kamran Khan (@AajKamranKhan) <a href="https://twitter.com/AajKamranKhan/status/1013741528697667584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2018</a></blockquote>
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No matter Pro or Anti PTI everyone is admitting next PTI is going to lead the next govt.

 

[the Great Khan]

This Election is now between


Pml N vs ISI Political/harassment wing



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pakistan election roiled with big names banned, radicals cleared<a href="https://t.co/q5UJtcai8Z">https://t.co/q5UJtcai8Z</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FakeElections?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FakeElections</a></p>— Ahmad Noorani (@Ahmad_Noorani) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ahmad_Noorani/status/1012658898879250432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

lol coming from the party setup by the ISI thats rich..dont worry the real ISI 9pakistan ki awaam) is gonna show you your awkaat...Lahore n some areas hasnt had proper electricity for three days..I thought it was Paris now?? why do you run away when your parties failures are pointed out to you? years of power and all you have to show for it is a Lahore that cant handle a few rains!!

 

[hussain.r97]

Interesting i hope the turnout is really high just like this survey is mentioning.

If we go by the survey, I think turnout will just be a little higher than last time, maybe touching 60%.

39% of respondents have expressed that they are unlikely to vote, 53% have expressed they are likely while 8% are 50-50.

 

[Arham_PakFan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A leading brokerage house Top line securities in a report expects <br>75% probability that the new coalition Govt. will be led by PTI independents; smaller parties. In a poll of leading Corporates and Fund Managers, 77% believe PTI to lead the next govt.</p>— Kamran Khan (@AajKamranKhan) <a href="https://twitter.com/AajKamranKhan/status/1013741528697667584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2018</a></blockquote>
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No matter Pro or Anti PTI everyone is admitting next PTI is going to lead the next govt.

In Sha Allah this is true.

I'm so sad that I can't vote.I was looking forward to vote since last elections when I was only 13!

Ali Zaidi(PTI),Miftah Ismail(PML N),Rauf Siddiqui(MQM) and Shehzad Memon(PPP) are standing up for NA 244(my area).

 

[Mian]

If we go by the survey, I think turnout will just be a little higher than last time, maybe touching 60%.

39% of respondents have expressed that they are unlikely to vote, 53% have expressed they are likely while 8% are 50-50.

Last time there were 84 million registered and a total of 45 million voted. This time there are around 106 million voters so even if the turnout remains same like 2013 which is 55% that means 58 millions voters (13 million more than 2013). In case the turnout is 60% it will result in 63 million voters (18 million more than 2013). The higher the turnout the better it is for PTI. Remember 2013 turnout of 55% was the biggest turnout in our history.

My worry is voters will prefer to stay at home and temp isn't gonna come down anytiem soon we are going through heat wave and it's only gonna get worse in upcoming weeks.

 

[PakWarrior]

Last time there were 84 million registered and a total of 45 million voted. This time there are around 106 million voters so even if the turnout remains same like 2013 which is 55% that means 58 millions voters (13 million more than 2013). In case the turnout is 60% it will result in 63 million voters (18 million more than 2013). The higher the turnout the better it is for PTI. Remember 2013 turnout of 55% was the biggest turnout in our history.

My worry is voters will prefer to stay at home and temp isn't gonna come down anytiem soon we are going through heat wave and it's only gonna get worse in upcoming weeks.

Bro it's going to rain in election week and the temperature is going to be pleasant according to forecast.

I expect a turnout of between 48% to 52% which is still a good number.

 

[PakWarrior]

Nawaz is returning to Pakistan this week as Mushahid Hussain travelled to London to tell Nawaz to come back as the party is sinking further.

So i expect Nawaz to do rallies soon.

But Avenfield verdict could come in two weeks and Nawaz might be sent to jail. He is aware of this and he's tuly stuck.

 

[Mian]

Bro it's going to rain in election week and the temperature is going to be pleasant according to forecast.

I expect a turnout of between 48% to 52% which is still a good number.

If there are rains in Punjab that will also expose Sharis' taraqee and voters will see dams on every road

 

[Mian]

ok so who else remember him? Degree to degree hoti hen saaee asli ho ya jaali!

 

[the Great Khan]

If there are rains in Punjab that will also expose Sharis' taraqee and voters will see dams on every road

a friend of mine lives in askari in lahore. He's only had partial electricity for the last three days..and although a relative neutral doesnt stop having a dig against the army and PTI (all in good humour and banter of course)..I asked him why he hasnt had electricity? I hought showbaz had turned lahore into Paris?

He didnt reply back lol..

 

[mmkextreme_1]

I never understood why elections are in July in Pakistan.

Ideally should be around October-November.

 

[the Great Khan]

Nawaz is returning to Pakistan this week as Mushahid Hussain travelled to London to tell Nawaz to come back as the party is sinking further.

So i expect Nawaz to do rallies soon.

But Avenfield verdict could come in two weeks and Nawaz might be sent to jail. He is aware of this and he's tuly stuck.

Mushahid might be the next one to go independent or jump ship..

 

[Bilal_103]

I dont think nawaz is going to risk coming back.

 

[Mian]

I dont think nawaz is going to risk coming back.

They can cash his arrest before elections.

 

[Mian]

a friend of mine lives in askari in lahore. He's only had partial electricity for the last three days..and although a relative neutral doesnt stop having a dig against the army and PTI (all in good humour and banter of course)..I asked him why he hasnt had electricity? I hought showbaz had turned lahore into Paris?

He didnt reply back lol..

Haha I know a few patwaris who sold their generators and ups in last winters thinking mian sahab ne bijli paida kerdi he

 

[the Great Khan]

Haha I know a few patwaris who sold their generators and ups in last winters thinking mian sahab ne bijli paida kerdi he

Lol, your joking lol..what a bunch of fools. Loadsheeding and our bijli infrastructure is as bakwaas as ever..
I saw Mian sahib on the Tv the other day crying and moaning like a 4 year old. He was claiming he was dismissed for nothing at all, just some maamooli si baat..

"Aw bijli kithay hay Mian Sahib. Loag mur gain nay gurmy wich!" The level of beghairty is astonishing.

 

[Bewal Express]

a friend of mine lives in askari in lahore. He's only had partial electricity for the last three days..and although a relative neutral doesnt stop having a dig against the army and PTI (all in good humour and banter of course)..I asked him why he hasnt had electricity? I hought showbaz had turned lahore into Paris?

He didnt reply back lol..

He wont change his vote. Noora people are damaged beyond repair.

 

[Mian]

Lol, your joking lol..what a bunch of fools. Loadsheeding and our bijli infrastructure is as bakwaas as ever..
I saw Mian sahib on the Tv the other day crying and moaning like a 4 year old. He was claiming he was dismissed for nothing at all, just some maamooli si baat..

"Aw bijli kithay hay Mian Sahib. Loag mur gain nay gurmy wich!" The level of beghairty is astonishing.

Our grids can't take more than 19000MW and the fools are not even upgrading them! Nawaz is going through mujhe kyun nikala phobia

 

[Mian]

Just read this WTH man he is saying this after 10 years of govt in Punjab humain pagal samaj rakha he?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">لاہور:اگرہماری حکومت بنی تویہاں اچھےاسکول بھی بنائیں گے،سعدرفیق</p>— Geo News Urdu (@geonews_urdu) <a href="https://twitter.com/geonews_urdu/status/1013778743469465600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Mian]

Awesome, makes my work easier! Is the spreadsheet itself available anywhere?

This is great. Thanks for finding this Mian Bro.

Guys let's get a seat by seat prediction started from tomorrow inshallah and let's have it finished a week or 10 days from tomorrow inshallah.

Here is the download link of Excel file if you guys need for your predictions.

http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=35486441438142385199

 

[awan_from_soon]

Here is the download link of Excel file if you guys need for your predictions.

http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=35486441438142385199

Excellent, this is really helpful. Does the PTI+ mark signify a seat adjustment? If so, GDA has put up some really strong candidates in interior Sindh.

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Has ever a man supposedly on the cusp of victory, looked so defeated? <a href="https://t.co/ooxbfJnOar">pic.twitter.com/ooxbfJnOar</a></p>— Mosharraf Zaidi (@mosharrafzaidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/mosharrafzaidi/status/1013844642188668930?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Honest words.

 

[Mian]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Has ever a man supposedly on the cusp of victory, looked so defeated? <a href="https://t.co/ooxbfJnOar">pic.twitter.com/ooxbfJnOar</a></p>— Mosharraf Zaidi (@mosharrafzaidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/mosharrafzaidi/status/1013844642188668930?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Honest words.

He is totally right Shahram an electable of Swabi joined PTI in 2015 after winning his seat Ind and remained loyal and honest with PTI while many nazryatis sold their souls.

 

[Mian]

EU Observer presser conf in Islamabad: Arrest of candidate accused of corruption is not rigging. Army deployment at polling station is good move. Political parties facing defeat in election are not pleased with results. Pakistan is much safer than it was in 2013 polls.

EU Observer is part of the saazish

 

[Mian]

Excellent, this is really helpful. Does the PTI+ mark signify a seat adjustment? If so, GDA has put up some really strong candidates in interior Sindh.

Yes PTI+ is for the seat adjustments. I heard Zardari is already in talk with GDA leadership because he is afraid things can go out of control for him.

 

[Mian]

According to Habib Akram Sheikh is clearly winning NA62

Sheikh Rasheed+PTI 58%

PMLN 35%

 

[Strike!]

https://youtu.be/Dlmipn1Ysck
https://youtu.be/Sl-N_deTO_I
https://youtu.be/JVGqOTk53G8

 

[Strike!]

https://youtu.be/_EPhDn6-Prs
https://youtu.be/YUWquKroIVM
https://youtu.be/CTUcnvgzACc
https://youtu.be/GoS_PiLNi8I
https://youtu.be/rSWXNSrj_C4
https://youtu.be/B50eF4UlGUQ
https://youtu.be/YhgENgqna5k

 

[MachoKhan]

What does kamran khan mean by that there is 75 chance of coalition gov led by pti independence? Does he mean khan wont be pm and someone else would be?

 

[Mian]

ex PMLN voters from Faisalabad

<iframe frameborder="0" width="480" height="270" src="//www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/x6nf3rx" allowfullscreen allow="autoplay"></iframe>

 

[Mian]

What does kamran khan mean by that there is 75 chance of coalition gov led by pti independence? Does he mean khan wont be pm and someone else would be?

I think he means PTI+Ind and skipped + because of twitter character limit

 

[awan_from_soon]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Has ever a man supposedly on the cusp of victory, looked so defeated? <a href="https://t.co/ooxbfJnOar">pic.twitter.com/ooxbfJnOar</a></p>— Mosharraf Zaidi (@mosharrafzaidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/mosharrafzaidi/status/1013844642188668930?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Honest words.

Yes, brutally honest. If the establishment is, in fact, engineering these elections, they would never want IK to reach the mantle of PMship. He cannot be controlled and thus will be a bigger liability than Nawaz is right now. This is why the establishment would want a pliable candidate on the top post whose history can be leveraged against them.

Lets see how things pan out.

 

[Strike!]

https://youtu.be/Jh0ntmw1Xmo

 

[Bewal Express]

Anybody know how the PTI is doing against Hanif Ephedrine Abbasi?

 

[Mian]

Anybody know how the PTI is doing against Hanif Ephedrine Abbasi?

PTI left 2 seats for Sheikh Rasheed in Rawalpindi and PTI will fully support him there so he is contesting on his own symbol there instead of PTI bat. On his home seat Sheikh is clearly winning according to yesterday survey and on other seat he contesting against Hanif Abbasi and so far news is positive there! I just hope PTI voters fully support him there and don't get discourage by not having their own symbol and party candidate.

 

[Bewal Express]

PTI left 2 seats for Sheikh Rasheed in Rawalpindi and PTI will fully support him there so he is contesting on his own symbol there instead of PTI bat. On his home seat Sheikh is clearly winning according to yesterday survey and on other seat he contesting against Hanif Abbasi and so far news is positive there! I just hope PTI voters fully support him there and don't get discourage by not having their own symbol and party candidate.

I want that ugly git humiliated.

 

[Mian]

I want that ugly git humiliated.

Wana see poetic justice? watch these banners of hanif abbasi election campaign in pindi and than check the banners above him

 

[awan_from_soon]

Anybody know how the PTI is doing against Hanif Ephedrine Abbasi?

I am glad you asked.

Not too good. I live in NA-60, and PTI made a blunder by giving the seat to Sheikh Rashid. The party had excellent votebank in the constituency with a sizeable presence of army families. I myself had been working on-ground in my free time by distributing self-printed PTI pamphlets. People were really responsive to PTI's message - from the guards of supermarkets to individuals living in the many Askari housing society in the area.

But then, PTI gave the constituency to Sheikhu, in addition to his traditional constituency of NA-62 (old NA-55). Now things are not as upbeat.

Yesterday (Sunday), I did a general survey of my area (much like Habib Akram). I spoke with 41 people across the constituency (11 turned out to be N supporters but I asked them the questions still). I tried to cover as many areas and possible. Of these 41 people, only 9 knew that PTI isn't fielding a candidate from this constituency. All 9 knew the seat adjustment was with Sheikhu. Of these 9, only 3 knew the election symbol of Sheikhu (Ink and Pen).

Furthermore, apart from one person in Lalkurti, all the rest who knew of Sheikh Rashid's candidacy were from areas close to or neighboring Sheikhu's NA-62 (Jhanda Chichi, Marrir Hassan, Rehmanabad, Saddar).

So, in view of this, PTI is not in an ideal position. Maybe they will sail through on the PP seats, but barring any major changes caused by the Rawalpindi jalsa, I don't expect Sheikhu to win this one.

 

[Mian]

I am glad you asked.

Not too good. I live in NA-60, and PTI made a blunder by giving the seat to Sheikh Rashid. The party had excellent votebank in the constituency with a sizeable presence of army families. I myself had been working on-ground in my free time by distributing self-printed PTI pamphlets. People were really responsive to PTI's message - from the guards of supermarkets to individuals living in the many Askari housing society in the area.

But then, PTI gave the constituency to Sheikhu, in addition to his traditional constituency of NA-62 (old NA-55). Now things are not as upbeat.

Yesterday (Sunday), I did a general survey of my area (much like Habib Akram). I spoke with 41 people across the constituency (11 turned out to be N supporters but I asked them the questions still). I tried to cover as many areas and possible. Of these 41 people, only 9 knew that PTI isn't fielding a candidate from this constituency. All 9 knew the seat adjustment was with Sheikhu. Of these 9, only 3 knew the election symbol of Sheikhu (Ink and Pen).

Furthermore, apart from one person in Lalkurti, all the rest who knew of Sheikh Rashid's candidacy were from areas close to or neighboring Sheikhu's NA-62 (Jhanda Chichi, Marrir Hassan, Rehmanabad, Saddar).

So, in view of this, PTI is not in an ideal position. Maybe they will sail through on the PP seats, but barring any major changes caused by the Rawalpindi jalsa, I don't expect Sheikhu to win this one.

Sheikhu should have merged his party with PTI long time ago and should have been the PTI face in whole North Punjab and AJK

 

[awan_from_soon]

Wana see poetic justice? watch these banners of hanif abbasi election campaign in pindi and than check the banners above him

He has removed these since.

That aside, Ephedrine Abbasi took full advantage of IK's aloofness to his constituents. He spent a ton of money here - particularly in densely-populated RMC areas which make up the northern part of the constituency.

He really poised himself for a tough fight against a PTI candidate, but then PTI made the ridiculous decision of giving this seat to Sheikhu. I am sure Abbasi was the happiest man in Pindi that day.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Sheikhu should have merged his party with PTI long time ago and should have been the PTI face in whole North Punjab and AJK

As a politician, Sheikhu has got only three things to offer: a big ego, a dabang image, and some ridiculous predictions that never come true.

He will never merge into PTI under normal circumstances. Maybe if a ministry were on the line, he might reconsider.

 

[Mian]

He has removed these since.

That aside, Ephedrine Abbasi took full advantage of IK's aloofness to his constituents. He spent a ton of money here - particularly in densely-populated RMC areas which make up the northern part of the constituency.

He really poised himself for a tough fight against a PTI candidate, but then PTI made the ridiculous decision of giving this seat to Sheikhu. I am sure Abbasi was the happiest man in Pindi that day.

That's the problem with national leader they remain away from their constituencies so in my view there should be strong PP candidates who can cover this flaw and remain active when NA candidate isn't available in PTI case another issue was PP candidates were not given funds because they were the opposition so it was a lose-lose situation. But even Nawaz Sharif and Benazir constituencies give you a picture of herapa and mohnjodero and they ruled multiple times and had funds

 

[Mian]

As a politician, Sheikhu has got only three things to offer: a big ego, a dabang image, and some ridiculous predictions that never come true.

He will never merge into PTI under normal circumstances. Maybe if a ministry were on the line, he might reconsider.

In my view it's the old leaguie inside him that doesn't want to die. AML give him that feeling of still being a part of Muslim League.

 

[Bilal_103]

In my view it's the old leaguie inside him that doesn't want to die. AML give him that feeling of still being a part of Muslim League.

If it wasn't for Imran Khan he would be irrelevant tbh

 

[awan_from_soon]

That's the problem with national leader they remain away from their constituencies so in my view there should be strong PP candidates who can cover this flaw and remain active when NA candidate isn't available in PTI case another issue was PP candidates were not given funds because they were the opposition so it was a lose-lose situation. But even Nawaz Sharif and Benazir constituencies give you a picture of herapa and mohnjodero and they ruled multiple times and had funds

Fayyazul Hasan Chohan did some excellent groundwork in the area for an NA ticket. He spent upwards of 50 lakh out of his own pocket on general uplift projects. But in the end, he was overlooked for a NA ticket and given a PP one instead.

If it wasn't for Imran Khan he would be irrelevant tbh

Quite true. He has a personal votebank, yes, but that votebank doesn't exceed the number of PTI people that vote for him.

 

[waqar goraya]

Imran being too kind on his friend Sheikhu. This is not merit but friendship.

I feel sorry for Awan sahib that he won't be able to stamp on bat.

 

[waqar goraya]

https://youtu.be/Jh0ntmw1Xmo

Do you actually watch all of these shows? Why don't you sometimes share interesting things from these road shows? If you watch then you should mention which program stands out.

 

[hussain.r97]

Here is the download link of Excel file if you guys need for your predictions.

http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=35486441438142385199

Great. I think this guy is being really optimistic though, we need to do our own ones.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Imran being too kind on his friend Sheikhu. This is not merit but friendship.

I feel sorry for Awan sahib that he won't be able to stamp on bat.

I will be, just not on the NA one. Fayyaz Chohan is contesting on bat on the PP seat of my area.

That said, I will still stamp on qalam dawaat on the Green Paper. Fielding Sheikhu is party's decision. Don't agree with it, but I respect it.

 

[awan_from_soon]

ok so who else remember him? Degree to degree hoti hen saaee asli ho ya jaali!

Just saw it. Got an Ainak Vala Jinn vibe from it. Dude's eccentricity is on another level.

 

[hussain.r97]

I think it's time to do the seat predictions now. Elections are only 3 weeks out, so this is a good time to start.

We have done:

NA-55 - PTI (decisive)
NA-56 - PTI (decisive)
NA-57 - PML-N (close)

Next one is NA-58 Rawalpindi-II (old NA-51)

PTI - Chaudhry Azeem
PML-N - Javed Ikhlas
PPP - Raja Parvez Ashraf

Thoughts [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

 

[Strike!]

Do you actually watch all of these shows? Why don't you sometimes share interesting things from these road shows? If you watch then you should mention which program stands out.

Unfortunately, I don't have time to watch all these shows to pick out clips.

 

[Strike!]

I think it's time to do the seat predictions now. Elections are only 3 weeks out, so this is a good time to start.

We have done:

NA-55 - PTI (decisive)
NA-56 - PTI (decisive)
NA-57 - PML-N (close)

Next one is NA-58 Rawalpindi-II (old NA-51)

PTI - Chaudhry Azeem
PML-N - Javed Ikhlas
PPP - Raja Parvez Ashraf

Thoughts [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

Well according to a few programs I watched in this area, this is one of the few constituencies of Punjab where PPP can win.

 

[Waseem]

I think it's time to do the seat predictions now. Elections are only 3 weeks out, so this is a good time to start.

We have done:

NA-55 - PTI (decisive)
NA-56 - PTI (decisive)
NA-57 - PML-N (close)

Next one is NA-58 Rawalpindi-II (old NA-51)

PTI - Chaudhry Azeem
PML-N - Javed Ikhlas
PPP - Raja Parvez Ashraf

Thoughts [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

I think this is an easy one to pick from PTI perspective anyway, this is one of very few seats in Punjab (probably 1 or 2 more max) where main competition is between PMLN and PPP. Ex PM Pervez Ashraf spent huge amount of money in his tenure and people still acknowledge that despite their dislike for PPP.

I think PMLN will win this one and Pervez Ashraf will be runner up, PTI will probably give much better fight than last time and may even get more votes than Pervez Ashraf but won't be able to win the seat.

 

[Syed1]

Guys the 2013 elections thread had 8000+ posts. We are only three weeks out of the 2018 elections and this thread has been running for a while but only has about 3000 posts with only 5-6 posters contributing..... Koi runak shunak lao lagay ke election season hai abhi tou kafi bore chal raha hai

 

[hussain.r97]

Well according to a few programs I watched in this area, this is one of the few constituencies of Punjab where PPP can win.

I think this is an easy one to pick from PTI perspective anyway, this is one of very few seats in Punjab (probably 1 or 2 more max) where main competition is between PMLN and PPP. Ex PM Pervez Ashraf spent huge amount of money in his tenure and people still acknowledge that despite their dislike for PPP.

I think PMLN will win this one and Pervez Ashraf will be runner up, PTI will probably give much better fight than last time and may even get more votes than Pervez Ashraf but won't be able to win the seat.

Ok, I have put this down as a close win for PML-N.

 

[hussain.r97]

Next one is NA-59 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-52)

PTI - Ghulam Sarwar Khan
IND (Jeep) - Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan
PML-N - Engineer Raja Qamar Ul Islam

Thoughts? [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=48408]Strike![/MENTION]

 

[Strike!]

Next one is NA-59 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-52)

PTI - Ghulam Sarwar Khan
IND (Jeep) - Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan
PML-N - Engineer Raja Qamar Ul Islam

Thoughts? [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=48408]Strike![/MENTION]

Two way fight between Ghulam Sarwar and Ch Nisar.. One of the programs I posted today is from this constituency..

 

[Waseem]

Next one is NA-59 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-52)

PTI - Ghulam Sarwar Khan
IND (Jeep) - Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan
PML-N - Engineer Raja Qamar Ul Islam

PTI should win this one due to three factors:

1 - Strong candidate - Sarwar Khan
2 - Split vote of PMLN and Ch Nisar's departure from PMLN will hurt both PMLN and Nisar.
3 - Strong PTI wave in the area and anti PMLN sentiment

 

[hussain.r97]

Two way fight between Ghulam Sarwar and Ch Nisar.. One of the programs I posted today is from this constituency..

Next one is NA-59 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-52)

PTI - Ghulam Sarwar Khan
IND (Jeep) - Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan
PML-N - Engineer Raja Qamar Ul Islam

PTI should win this one due to three factors:

1 - Strong candidate - Sarwar Khan
2 - Split vote of PMLN and Ch Nisar's departure from PMLN will hurt both PMLN and Nisar.
3 - Strong PTI wave in the area and anti PMLN sentiment

Alright, so I'll put this down as a close win for PTI.

 

[hussain.r97]

Next one is NA-60 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-56)

AML (PTI) - Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed
PML-N - Hanif Abbasi

Thoughts? [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=48408]Strike![/MENTION]

 

[saeedhk]

Next one is NA-60 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-56)

AML (PTI) - Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed
PML-N - Hanif Abbasi

Thoughts? [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=48408]Strike![/MENTION]

I believe it will be a very tight contest this time with Abbasi possibly winning this seat. Abbasi has put a lot of money into the constituency. Also, Imran Khan didn’t even visit the constituency once. Many people have this complaint.

 

[Strike!]

Next one is NA-60 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-56)

AML (PTI) - Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed
PML-N - Hanif Abbasi

Thoughts? [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=48408]Strike![/MENTION]

Sheikh Rasheed to win by 20 thousand or more votes.

 

[hussain.r97]

I believe it will be a very tight contest this time with Abbasi possibly winning this seat. Abbasi has put a lot of money into the constituency. Also, Imran Khan didn’t even visit the constituency once. Many people have this complaint.

Sheikh Rasheed to win by 20 thousand or more votes.

I think this one will be close. There have even be a few recent surveys where people were unhappy that Imran Khan didn't visit them once in the last 5 years, so they will be going with Hanif Abassi. Giving Sheikh Rasheed this seat may be a move to give the constituency a different face and party to vote for.

What do you think [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION]?

 

[Waseem]

I think this one will be close. There have even be a few recent surveys where people were unhappy that Imran Khan didn't visit them once in the last 5 years, so they will be going with Hanif Abassi. Giving Sheikh Rasheed this seat may be a move to give the constituency a different face and party to vote for.

What do you think [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION]?

Habib Akram's survey did show edge for Sheikh Rasheed but this would probably be closer than survey suggests. Hanif Abbasi also has bad reputation but sadly he was provided huge amount of funds by Sharifs and he also takes credit of Metro as well so overall people may ignore his bad reputation for his development work. Imran's absence from constituency may hurt PTI's chances but strong campaign and little explanation in jalsa could overcome that.

I believe Sheikh Rasheed would still win this close contest. Hanif Abbasi is one guy who i would want to be thrashed and humiliated along with Rana Sanaullah and Abid Sher Ali (Abid will still win unfortunately).

 

[hussain.r97]

Over the next few hours, we will be releasing the results of our June 28-July 1 National Survey. In terms of nationwide voting intention, PTI has expanded its 3 point lead from our June 22-24 survey to a more substantial, 5 point lead, and for the first time holding a lead outside the margin of error.

It also cracked the 30% figure for the first time. While each party needed at least 37% of the vote to win in the 1980s and 1990s (PPP in 1988 won 39%, PML(N) in 1990 won 37%, PPP in 1993 won 38%, and PML(N) in 1997 won 45%), parties since have needed much smaller shares of votes to win (PML(Q) in 2002 won just 26%, PPP in 2008 won 31% and PML(N) in 2013 won 33%) due to emergence of more political players.

Additionally, we have for the first time added TLP and BAP to our voting intention, and the parties are currently polling at 3% and 1% respectively.

METHODOLOGY: Survey based on 3573 respondents. Our coverage was national (all four provinces including FATA), and rural/urban. 56% of our respondents were male, 44% women. 32% we young (under 30), 46% middle aged (30-50), and 22% old (50+). 65% of our respondents were in rural areas and 35% of the respondents were in urban areas. Our mode of surveying was face to face, and the survey was conducted from June 22-24. You can expect a margin of error of +/- 2% at a 95% confidence interval.

Big news, PTi have cracked 30% of the party vote in surveys for the first time! More analysis to come.

 

[hussain.r97]

The main takeaway is PTI are leading outside the margin of error for the first time.

 

[hussain.r97]

Habib Akram's survey did show edge for Sheikh Rasheed but this would probably be closer than survey suggests. Hanif Abbasi also has bad reputation but sadly he was provided huge amount of funds by Sharifs and he also takes credit of Metro as well so overall people may ignore his bad reputation for his development work. Imran's absence from constituency may hurt PTI's chances but strong campaign and little explanation in jalsa could overcome that.

I believe Sheikh Rasheed would still win this close contest. Hanif Abbasi is one guy who i would want to be thrashed and humiliated along with Rana Sanaullah and Abid Sher Ali (Abid will still win unfortunately).

Alright, I will put this down as a close win for Sheikh Rasheed.

 

[PakWarrior]

I think it's time to do the seat predictions now. Elections are only 3 weeks out, so this is a good time to start.

We have done:

NA-55 - PTI (decisive)
NA-56 - PTI (decisive)
NA-57 - PML-N (close)

Next one is NA-58 Rawalpindi-II (old NA-51)

PTI - Chaudhry Azeem
PML-N - Javed Ikhlas
PPP - Raja Parvez Ashraf

Thoughts [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

This one is a Javed Ikhlas win. He will beat Parvez Ashraf.

 

[PakWarrior]

Alright, I will put this down as a close win for Sheikh Rasheed.

No Bro I think Hanif Abbasi will win this one. He is running a meticulous hard core campaign here according to reports.

 

[PakWarrior]

Next one is NA-59 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-52)

PTI - Ghulam Sarwar Khan
IND (Jeep) - Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan
PML-N - Engineer Raja Qamar Ul Islam

PTI should win this one due to three factors:

1 - Strong candidate - Sarwar Khan
2 - Split vote of PMLN and Ch Nisar's departure from PMLN will hurt both PMLN and Nisar.
3 - Strong PTI wave in the area and anti PMLN sentiment

A wave is building for Nisar also and he is on fire in his Jalsas. He might edge this one. Too close to call.

 

[PakWarrior]

Big news, PTi have cracked 30% of the party vote in surveys for the first time! More analysis to come.

This is HUGE news. As mentioned from reports I am getting from Punjab there is a wave that is gathering momentum for PTI.

I'm basing this on the ground feedback I've gotten from:

Sahiwal
Jhang
Toba Tekh Singh
Sarghoda
Sialkot

 

[hussain.r97]

Based on our 28 June - 1 July survey, in Punjab, the contest is essentially a deadlock between the PTI and PML(N). In addition, the recently formed TLP registers an impressive 4%, while PPP remain in single digits.

[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

 

[hussain.r97]

An early look at our seat projection based on the 28 June- 1 July opinion poll. Further detail and projections for other parties later today!

 

[Mian]

Just saw it. Got an Ainak Vala Jinn vibe from it. Dude's eccentricity is on another level.

During dherna days i saw him roaming on the streets of Islamabad in this exactly same dressing

 

[Mian]

I think it's time to do the seat predictions now. Elections are only 3 weeks out, so this is a good time to start.

We have done:

NA-55 - PTI (decisive)
NA-56 - PTI (decisive)
NA-57 - PML-N (close)

Next one is NA-58 Rawalpindi-II (old NA-51)

PTI - Chaudhry Azeem
PML-N - Javed Ikhlas
PPP - Raja Parvez Ashraf

Thoughts [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

On this seat PPP > PTI >PMLN. I think PPP will win this seat from what i heard Raja is doing his campaign from a long time.

 

[Mian]

Next one is NA-59 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-52)

PTI - Ghulam Sarwar Khan
IND (Jeep) - Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan
PML-N - Engineer Raja Qamar Ul Islam

Thoughts? [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=48408]Strike![/MENTION]

Ch Nisar > PTI > PMLN.

IMO 50% Ch Nisar, 30% PTI and 15% PMLN on this seat.

 

[hussain.r97]

In Northwest Punjab, or the broader Potohar region, PTI and PML(N) collectively take almost 80% of the vote, and PTI is holding on to a small 4% lead, the closest fight of the three Punjab regions.

 

[Mian]

Next one is NA-60 Rawalpindi-III (old NA-56)

AML (PTI) - Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed
PML-N - Hanif Abbasi

Thoughts? [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=48408]Strike![/MENTION]

There was a close fight expected on this seat but looking at [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] opinion he is on ground there i think PMLN can win this seat.

 

[Mian]

PPP fighting with TLP is a lamha e fiqrya