Australia's T20WC hinges entirely on the kind of pitches that will be on offer. On flat tracks, no one will be able to out-muscle them, but on pitches with some help they might get stuck with a one-dimensional batting line-up. Warner is extremely important for them, so is Mitch Marsh.
England and India look to be the second best, where I might give India an advantage because of a versatile bowling attack. Four spinners is good thinking in conditions where the ball will definitely spin or atleast grip. Bumrah is in great rhythm, and he alone can make a massive difference in the pace bowling department. Arshdeep, Siraj and Pandya are definite weak links which teams can target.
England have a powerhouse batting line-up, but as the 2023WC proved, they are susceptible to pressure and their bowling attack is not good enough to absorb the pressure that the batters might face.
South Africa on paper looks really good, but they have issues with temperament. Their capitulation against India in the semi-final really did not fit the bill for a side competing for the top spot. They have disintegrated under pressure before aswell, with the recent T20WC 2022 being the best example for a weak temperament.
New Zealand are steady yet too boring to really comment. They will be in contention as always.
Pakistan has glaring issues with their batting, which will definitely catch up to them in this tournament. Just like Australia, they are highly dependent on the kind of pitches that will be produced, as they come back into the game if the pitches offer just a bit of help to the bowlers. On flat wickets, Pakistan will be decimated and frankly will not even be in contention in this tournament.
West Indies are the dark horse as usual. They have a very good team, players who understand T20 cricket and played quite alright in Australia recently. Home team will always have a better understanding of the conditions, but remains to be seen how well West Indies utilize that knowledge. Can't really expect much, they are too volatile to predict.
Semi-finalists for me would be:
India
England
New Zealand
Australia/Pakistan (conditions dependent)