Jadz
Local Club Captain
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2009
- Runs
- 2,583
What's the endgame of Russia here?
Do they want to annex the entire Ukraine or just the eastern portion of it?
The Donbass region has already declared itself independent from Ukraine - the Russian operation is to 'demilitarize and de-Nazify' Ukraine, dismantle US bio-labs, destroy weapons dumps and neo-Nazis, like the Azov Battalion.
More to the point: what is the endgame of the US/West here? The following is what a former NATO Intel Officer states:
we have to understand, as you know, that the war in fact hasn’t started on 24 February this year. It started already in 2014. But I think that the Russians always hoped that this conflict could be solved on a political level, in fact; I mean the Minsk agreements and all that. So, basically what led to the decision to launch an offensive in the Donbas was not what happened since 2014. There was a trigger for that, and the trigger is two things; I mean, it came in two phases, if you want.
The first is the decision and the law adopted by [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy in March 2021—that means last year—to reconquer Crimea by force - started a build-up of Russian armed forces ... They were aware that an operation was to be launched against the Republics of the Donbas, but they did not know when, and, of course, they were just observing that, and then came the real trigger.
You may remember that—I think it was on the 16th of February—Joe Biden, during a press conference, told that he knew that the Russians would attack. And how would he know that? Because I still have some contacts, and nobody actually thought that the Russians—before end of January, beginning of February—I think nobody thought that the Russians would attack Ukraine. So, there must have been something that made Biden aware that the Russians would attack. And this something, in fact, is the intensification of the artillery shelling of the Donbas starting on the 16th of February, and this increase in the shelling was observed, in fact, by the [Border] Observer Mission of the OSCE [Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe], and they recorded this increase of violation, and it’s a massive violation. I mean, we are talking about something that is about 30 times more than what it used to be, because the last eight years you had a lot of violations from both sides, by the way. But suddenly on the 16th of February you had a massive increase of violation on the Ukrainian side. So, for the Russians, Vladimir Putin in particular, that was the sign that the operation—the Ukrainian operation—was about to start.
And then everything started; I mean, all the events came very quickly. That means that if we look at the figures, you can see that there’s, as I said, a massive increase from the 16th-17th, and then it reached kind of a maximum on the 18th of February, and that was continuing.
And the Russian parliament, the Duma, also was aware of this possible offensive, and they passed a resolution asking Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of the two self-proclaimed Republics in the Donbas. And that’s what Putin decided to do on the 21st of February. And just after adopting the decrees, the law recognizing the independence of the two Republics, Vladimir Putin signed a friendship and assistance agreement with those two Republics. Why did he do that? So that would allow the Republics to ask for military help in case of attack. And that’s why, on the 24th of February when Vladimir Putin decided to launch the offensive, it could invoke Article 51 of the UN Charter that provides for assistance in case of attack.
Since last year we knew that the Ukrainians were building up their forces in the south of the country, not on the eastern border with Russia but on the border with the contact line with Donbas. And, as a matter of fact, as we have seen from the 24th of February, the Russians had almost no resistance in the start of the offensive, especially in the north. And so, they could, what they have done since then, they could surround the Ukrainian forces in the south, in the southeast part of the country—that means between the two Republics of the Donbas and the Ukraine mainland, if you want. And that’s where the bulk of the Ukrainian forces are today. And according to the…that’s exactly the Russian doctrine to fight, I mean operational doctrine. Their main offensive was on the south, clearly, because the objective stated by Vladimir Putin—we can probably come back on these details later on—but this was demilitarization and denazification.
Both objectives, in fact, were about to be done or to be reached in the south of the country, and that’s where the main efforts of the offensive was done. In the offensive order, the effort against Kiev is a so-called secondary effort, and it had, as a fact, you had two functions basically. First of all, to put some pressure on the political leadership in Kiev because the name of the game is to bring the Ukrainians to the negotiations. That was the first objective of this second effort.
The second objective of this second effort was to bind or to pin down the rest of the Ukrainian armored forces so that they could not reinforce the main forces which are in the Donbas area. And that worked quite well. So that means that the Russians could surround, as I said, the main forces, the bulk of the armed forces—the Ukrainian armed forces. Once they have achieved that they could withdraw some troops from Kiev, and that’s what they have done since end of March. They have pulled several units in order to reinforce what they want; I mean their own forces to carry on under the main battle in the Donbas area. So now they are pulling, and they have pulled these troops from the Kiev area, and these troops will now help to flank for the vanguard, the offensive against the main forces in the Donbas. And that’s what some called the ‘mother of all battles’ that is currently going on in the Donbas area, where you have—nobody knows exactly the number of Ukrainian troops; estimates vary from sixty thousand to eighty thousand who are surrounded—and the forces would be cut in smaller cauldrons and then destroyed or neutralized.
…I mean, nobody is interested in Ukraine, I think. The target, the aim, the objective is to weaken Russia, and once it will be done with Russia, they will do the same with China,
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/04/15/us-eu-sacrificing-ukraine-to-weaken-russia-fmr-nato-adviser/