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Trump raises India tariffs to 50% over Russian oil purchases [Update@post#255]

India and US seek breakthrough in day-long trade talks

India and the US are holding a day of trade talks, sparking hope that stalled negotiations on a bilateral agreement will soon resume.

A team led by US trade negotiator Brendan Lynch is in Delhi to meet officials from India's commerce ministry.

India said the meeting doesn't mark the start of the next round of negotiations, describing it as a "discussion" about "trying to see" how an agreement can be reached.

Negotiations on a trade deal had stalled after US President Donald Trump imposed a hefty 50% tariff on Indian goods, partly as a penalty for Delhi's purchase of Russian oil and weapons. India has defended its decision, citing domestic energy needs, and called the tariffs "unfair".

The hefty duties, along with strong criticism of India by Trump and his key officials, have led to a swift and surprising deterioration in ties between the allies.

India is a major exporter of goods, including garments, shrimp and gems and jewellery to the US, and the tariffs have already impacted production and livelihoods.

So Tuesday's meeting between Indian and US officials is being closely watched.

"This is not an official round of negotiations but it will definitely be a discussion on the trade talks and on trying to see how we can reach an agreement between India and the US," Rajesh Agrawal, who is leading the discussions on India's behalf, told local media on Monday ahead of Mr Lynch's visit.

A round of negotiations was called off last month following Trump's tariff announcement and India's refusal to stop buying Russian oil.

But over the past few days, hopes have risen - Trump administration officials have sounded more conciliatory and India has confirmed that the discussions are still on.

On Monday, US trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC News: "India is coming to the table. We will see how this works."

Navarro has been one of the most vocal critics of India, calling Russia's ongoing war with Ukraine Indian Prime Minister Narendra "Modi's war".

In the CNBC interview, Mr Navarro also referenced last week's social media exchange between Trump and Modi.

Trump said that the US and India were "continuing negotiations to address the trade barriers" between the two countries. In response, Modi echoed the US president's optimism and said the two countries were "close friends and natural partners."

Sergio Gor, Trump's nominee to be the next US ambassador to India, also said that the trade deal "will get resolved in the next weeks".

"We are not that far apart right now on the deal. In fact, they're negotiating the nitty-gritty of the deal," he said during a confirmation hearing last week.

But it still remains to be seen how the countries solve key disagreements that had earlier prevented a trade deal from materialising.

Agriculture and dairy, in particular, are key sticking points.

For years, Washington has pushed for greater access to India's farm sector, seeing it as a major untapped market. But India has fiercely protected it, citing food security, livelihoods and the interests of millions of small farmers.

Last week, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick repeated his earlier criticism of India's fierce safeguards, asking why a country of 1.4 billion people wouldn't "buy one bushel of US corn".

But Indian experts have argued that Delhi shouldn't give in to pressure to open up its agricultural market, keeping national sovereignty and food security in mind.

BBC
 
Don't expect the americans to be charitable after Modi ran off to Shanghai like a phool to embrace Xi and Putin; images of which which were splashed across all the world newspapers and annoyed Uncle Sam. Modi is as low IQ as they come.
 
India funded their entire economy on exporting cheap labour while China became a mammoth manufacturing hub. It's why one of these is now heading towards being a super power while the other is surrounded by neighbours who hate it and is obsessed about a country 5 times its smaller size who is bankrupt.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A flight from US to India. People boarded the flight. Found out about the H1B news. Immediately disembarked fearing they won’t be allowed re-entry. Crazy <a href="https://t.co/pgoSwK24UC">pic.twitter.com/pgoSwK24UC</a></p>— Gabbar (@GabbbarSingh) <a href=" ">September 20, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Don't expect the americans to be charitable after Modi ran off to Shanghai like a phool to embrace Xi and Putin; images of which which were splashed across all the world newspapers and annoyed Uncle Sam. Modi is as low IQ as they come.

Modi didn’t do anything wrong here, India is a legitimate member of the SCO. In fact, he even skipped China’s military parade.

The real issue is that Modi has become a prisoner of the domestic narrative that created him, a narrative built on hyper nationalism and strongman optics. And now, that same narrative is boxing India into a corner on the global stage.
 
Modi didn’t do anything wrong here, India is a legitimate member of the SCO. In fact, he even skipped China’s military parade.

It's about reading the room. Modi was avoiding a China visit until that Shanghai photo-op few weeks ago. He last went 8 years ago.

The Trump admin was pressurising India to drop the Russia oil purchases, instead Modi goes to China in defiance and bear-hugs Putin and Xi - which was more or less a pretend eff-you to Trump. Given the circumstances, that move was stupid especially when the US is currently ruled by an impulsive vindictive president with a fragile ego who doesn't care about long-standing alliances.
 
It's about reading the room. Modi was avoiding a China visit until that Shanghai photo-op few weeks ago. He last went 8 years ago.

The Trump admin was pressurising India to drop the Russia oil purchases, instead Modi goes to China in defiance and bear-hugs Putin and Xi - which was more or less a pretend eff-you to Trump. Given the circumstances, that move was stupid especially when the US is currently ruled by an impulsive vindictive president with a fragile ego who doesn't care about long-standing alliances.

You’re right, I overlooked the fact that Modi visited China after 8 years.

But I stand by the point that he remains a prisoner of the domestic narrative he falsely created, one that now limits his diplomatic maneuverability on the global stage.
 
It's about reading the room. Modi was avoiding a China visit until that Shanghai photo-op few weeks ago. He last went 8 years ago.

The Trump admin was pressurising India to drop the Russia oil purchases, instead Modi goes to China in defiance and bear-hugs Putin and Xi - which was more or less a pretend eff-you to Trump. Given the circumstances, that move was stupid especially when the US is currently ruled by an impulsive vindictive president with a fragile ego who doesn't care about long-standing alliances.
Things will be back to normal once Trumpy the moron goes. I doubt the Republicans are winning the next elections unless the Dems do something really stupid, which they are prone to do.

India will just have to ride this phase out. Most likely Trump will cave soon as he always does. India could make some concessions just to make Trump look good. Doesn’t have to be a lot but Trump might take anything as a win.
 
Things will be back to normal once Trumpy the moron goes. I doubt the Republicans are winning the next elections unless the Dems do something really stupid, which they are prone to do.

India will just have to ride this phase out. Most likely Trump will cave soon as he always does. India could make some concessions just to make Trump look good. Doesn’t have to be a lot but Trump might take anything as a win.

It’s only the first year of his presidency. Has implemented majority of the Project 45 plan. By the time he will leave, the world we know will have changed significantly.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A flight from US to India. People boarded the flight. Found out about the H1B news. Immediately disembarked fearing they won’t be allowed re-entry. Crazy <a href="https://t.co/pgoSwK24UC">pic.twitter.com/pgoSwK24UC</a></p>— Gabbar (@GabbbarSingh) <a href=" ">September 20, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Here is that flight.

 
It’s only the first year of his presidency. Has implemented majority of the Project 45 plan. By the time he will leave, the world we know will have changed significantly.

What is obvious is that this has bipartisan support. How many democrats have come out against what Trump is doing towards India. Just think about that for a bit.

The Indian strategic freeloading had to stop as it's only building a rival for the future. They made that mistake with china but not so with India.
 
you know what to do IF you want a serious discussion ...
images
 
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This is a kick in the mouth on the faces of all Indian IT firms. They need to stop relying on outsourced projects and build something that can create mass employment for millions of tech graduates that come into the job market every year.

India cannot rely on the goodwill of Western countries to provide employment for its youth. Protectionism is taking over West with rightwing parties gaining popularity. Indian IT workers are easy targets of hate as they are very visible in major corporations drawing big salaries. Losers who never studied and spent their time on video games and women blame Indian IT workers for their misery.

Lastly, US does not need all these thousands of IT workers with AI supposed to do bulk of the coding work in the next 2 to 3 years. Until and unless India starts innovating and starts building things that the world wants, it will not reach the level of China.
 
I am actually enjoying what’s going on with Indians. One humiliation after another. If you read social media, Americans are rejoicing the H1b changes. I swear I didn’t know how much the whites hate Indians till now.
 
This is a kick in the mouth on the faces of all Indian IT firms. They need to stop relying on outsourced projects and build something that can create mass employment for millions of tech graduates that come into the job market every year.

India cannot rely on the goodwill of Western countries to provide employment for its youth. Protectionism is taking over West with rightwing parties gaining popularity. Indian IT workers are easy targets of hate as they are very visible in major corporations drawing big salaries. Losers who never studied and spent their time on video games and women blame Indian IT workers for their misery.

Lastly, US does not need all these thousands of IT workers with AI supposed to do bulk of the coding work in the next 2 to 3 years. Until and unless India starts innovating and starts building things that the world wants, it will not reach the level of China.
We will see similar scenes from the gulf soon too with lower wage workers. AI and automation will make them surplus to requirements.

Unfortunately Indians drew too much attention to themselves by aligning with right wing groups to point the fingers at other minority groups as the problem.

Many Indians have been joining arms with far right figures in the UK about migrants in boats, thinking it is a good way to put the boot into Muslims, yet the first boat person caught and deported turned out to be Indian.
 
This is a kick in the mouth on the faces of all Indian IT firms. They need to stop relying on outsourced projects and build something that can create mass employment for millions of tech graduates that come into the job market every year.

India cannot rely on the goodwill of Western countries to provide employment for its youth. Protectionism is taking over West with rightwing parties gaining popularity. Indian IT workers are easy targets of hate as they are very visible in major corporations drawing big salaries. Losers who never studied and spent their time on video games and women blame Indian IT workers for their misery.

Lastly, US does not need all these thousands of IT workers with AI supposed to do bulk of the coding work in the next 2 to 3 years. Until and unless India starts innovating and starts building things that the world wants, it will not reach the level of China.
Agree 100%

This was probably much needed reality check for Indian firms. We will continue to have good inflow of GCCs but they cannot absorb the vast chunk of resources coming into workforce in India. With service sector alone, we cannot be self-reliant.

We need to be patient for 4-5 years till our manufacturing sectors starts contributing. Some of the welcome changes in last few months are the investments pouring into Semi-conductor chips, EVs, electronics, renewable energy and shipping sector. It is very critical to be self-reliant as the world is moving more towards protectionist policies.

Let the Pakistanis here celebrate for a short while, but things are happening much faster now in India. A remote village near my hometown has an EV bus factory now with scope to have 1800+ jobs. 5-10 years, and we will be looking at a rapid growth from EV sector.

 
Agree 100%

This was probably much needed reality check for Indian firms. We will continue to have good inflow of GCCs but they cannot absorb the vast chunk of resources coming into workforce in India. With service sector alone, we cannot be self-reliant.

We need to be patient for 4-5 years till our manufacturing sectors starts contributing. Some of the welcome changes in last few months are the investments pouring into Semi-conductor chips, EVs, electronics, renewable energy and shipping sector. It is very critical to be self-reliant as the world is moving more towards protectionist policies.

Let the Pakistanis here celebrate for a short while, but things are happening much faster now in India. A remote village near my hometown has an EV bus factory now with scope to have 1800+ jobs. 5-10 years, and we will be looking at a rapid growth from EV sector.

What is India’s plan re the semiconductor industry? I mean you guys are a long way away from manufacturing cutting edge 2-3nm chips like Taiwan is doing.
 
The Hindutuva that supported Trump will surely support this measure to keep America White by kicking out 1000s of mainly Inds on HB1 visas.
 
What is India’s plan re the semiconductor industry? I mean you guys are a long way away from manufacturing cutting edge 2-3nm chips like Taiwan is doing.

India knows we are nowhere close to making the kind of 2 or 3 nm chips that Taiwan is producing right now and that is perfectly fine. The immediate focus is to build the basics first by setting up fabs for mature nodes like 28 nm and above and by putting the supply chain talent and infrastructure in place. Tata is already working on a big project in Gujarat and Micron has started an assembly and testing facility in Sanand so some groundwork is happening.

Where we are already strong is in chip design since many global semiconductor companies have their engineering teams here. The idea is to grow that strength and then slowly move towards manufacturing. But reaching 2 nm needs EUV lithography machines and decades of process knowledge and at present only companies like TSMC Samsung or Intel have that level of expertise.

For now the plan is to first become self reliant in the kind of chips used in cars household appliances and telecom equipment which is where the big demand is in India. Competing with Taiwan at the cutting edge will take time and it is easily a decade long journey before we can even think of catching up.
 
What is India’s plan re the semiconductor industry? I mean you guys are a long way away from manufacturing cutting edge 2-3nm chips like Taiwan is doing.
We are far off from 2nm chips. Heck, we are far off from exporting chips. First thing we need to do is to capture the low hanging fruits that is Indian consumption.

Our electronic manufacturing is at all time high as most of the MNCs have set up their bases for mobiles / laptops etc. SemiCon fabs are highly concentrated with only few players in the market. A few protectionist policies can ensure Indian consumption will be enough to capture ~40bUSD market by 2030.

Design wise, we are doing well. Recently, a design base has been set up for 2nm by ARM in bengaluru. Fabs will definitely have a lead time of 6-8 years anyway.

 
I have to say that the EUV Lithography machine is probably the pinnacle of human development that exceeds everything we as a species has done to date. It has around 100,000 parts sourced from thousands of suppliers with an incredibly complex supply chain and the 2-3nm chips developed are being used in the latest hi-tech space such as AI, smart phones, supercomputers, etc.
 
The Hindutuva that supported Trump will surely support this measure to keep America White by kicking out 1000s of mainly Inds on HB1 visas.
I have seen on social media many Indians saying they would rather kill themselves than go back to India.

When Indian MEA said this is a humanitarian catastrophe I laughed at first but perhaps he was right if it results in this type of feeling.

Regardless of their previous stance I have sympathy for them.
 
I have seen on social media many Indians saying they would rather kill themselves than go back to India.

When Indian MEA said this is a humanitarian catastrophe I laughed at first but perhaps he was right if it results in this type of feeling.

Regardless of their previous stance I have sympathy for them.
Surely they would be fighting to go back because Trump wants to keep America White and they support that. 🤣🤣🥰
 
If India is smart, they should use this opportunity to keep the talent and encourage entrepreneurship among its huge tech force and start building software and semiconductor chips for home consumption. May be even export to other countries in Africa and Latin America. They can offer a cheaper alternative to expensive products from Taiwan, China and US.
The next coming decade is very crucial for India.
 
If India is smart, they should use this opportunity to keep the talent and encourage entrepreneurship among its huge tech force and start building software and semiconductor chips for home consumption. May be even export to other countries in Africa and Latin America. They can offer a cheaper alternative to expensive products from Taiwan, China and US.
The next coming decade is very crucial for India.
Easier said than done. Why don't you come back to India first? :inti
 
Easier said than done. Why don't you come back to India first? :inti
He is US citizen.

This ban is on recent migrants only. It is a big test for Modi and BJP. They use this talent to champion Indians progress, but are now shivering that they will have to provide opportunities for their own educated people who will likely ask more questions of the government than their traditional uneducated vote bank.
 
He is US citizen.

This ban is on recent migrants only. It is a big test for Modi and BJP. They use this talent to champion Indians progress, but are now shivering that they will have to provide opportunities for their own educated people who will likely ask more questions of the government than their traditional uneducated vote bank.
Instead of clapping from abroad, he should renounce his US citizenship, come back, and help make India great. :inti
 
The entire H1b fiasco it seems is only for new applicants, now what does that even mean lol this is the reason they need atleast some folks who can write a proper law
 
I have to say that the EUV Lithography machine is probably the pinnacle of human development that exceeds everything we as a species has done to date. It has around 100,000 parts sourced from thousands of suppliers with an incredibly complex supply chain and the 2-3nm chips developed are being used in the latest hi-tech space such as AI, smart phones, supercomputers, etc.
@Theanonymousone making these machines and working on them costs a lot, they also go out of scope very quickly.

These investments are done from governments to multiple companies subsidising the cost.Zeiss-ASML-(Machine ) TSMC-Apple-(manufacture-customer)

Also not only is the machine manufacturing tough its also how to use it, mind you these are not made by Taiwan, the make the factories were these ASML machine from Netherlands come in, the water used in fabs is so pure its undrinkable.
 
in 6 months, india will have a trade deal with UK(done already), EU and most likely US in return giving little access to our markets.

If the Global economy recovers in next 2 quarters(very unlikely), there is every chance we will start clocking double digit gdp growth by 2028-29. Only big economy today in a postion to give two massive tax cuts in one year and with interest rate cuts coming in next 12-18 months ...all we need is not for rest of world to collapse, especially China. Bump this in 2 years if am wrong
 
The entire H1b fiasco it seems is only for new applicants, now what does that even mean lol this is the reason they need atleast some folks who can write a proper law

the dependency on H1b has already reduced, its in the range of 3-5% of total employees for our companies, if its just for new applicants it has zero impact
 
the dependency on H1b has already reduced, its in the range of 3-5% of total employees for our companies, if its just for new applicants it has zero impact
Yeah it is only for new applicants, they just clarified, which is what 2026 lol, MAGA are dumb because the law is only up until next year (can or cannot be renewed).
——
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson clarified to CBS News in an email Saturday that the fee "does not apply to anyone who has a current visa," and "only applies to future applicants in the February [2026] lottery who are currently outside the U.S. It does not apply to anyone who participated in the 2025 lottery."

 
This is a kick in the mouth on the faces of all Indian IT firms. They need to stop relying on outsourced projects and build something that can create mass employment for millions of tech graduates that come into the job market every year.

India cannot rely on the goodwill of Western countries to provide employment for its youth. Protectionism is taking over West with rightwing parties gaining popularity. Indian IT workers are easy targets of hate as they are very visible in major corporations drawing big salaries. Losers who never studied and spent their time on video games and women blame Indian IT workers for their misery.

Lastly, US does not need all these thousands of IT workers with AI supposed to do bulk of the coding work in the next 2 to 3 years. Until and unless India starts innovating and starts building things that the world wants, it will not reach the level of China.

The days of IT creating mass employement is over, we have already milked that industry to the max .
 
Its not it causing problems

Its all these indians now doing jobs working as builders , labourers , pizza shop workers , Costa coffee barristas, petrol station attendants , fast food delivery drivers that's causing problems alongwith 30 off them shacked In one house where dodgy landlords are getting rent per head and not putting properties too British families and demanding excessive unaffordable rents for British families.
 
As for the boat people it's simple legalise the drug trade where people can get their fix of coke , opiods, cannabis legally through the health system alongwith banning uber and all those fast food apps where these boatmen then get illegally employed riding around in mopeds
 
Yeah it is only for new applicants, they just clarified, which is what 2026 lol, MAGA are dumb because the law is only up until next year (can or cannot be renewed).
——
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson clarified to CBS News in an email Saturday that the fee "does not apply to anyone who has a current visa," and "only applies to future applicants in the February [2026] lottery who are currently outside the U.S. It does not apply to anyone who participated in the 2025 lottery."

It's academic now since Trump's totally chickened out but I was actually thinking the H1B reversal might not be so bad for India.

The return of 300-400k highly educated professionals would

- Juice up the GCC sector drastically scaling it up and improving the quality of work done there
- Have huge positive impact on the commercial real estate market and perhaps in residential real estate as well
- Add a maybe 10 to 15 Billion Dollars into consumer purchasing power
- Would lead to a real boom in Startups and the kind of talent available

Of course, I understand the humanitarian cost to the people who'd made their lives in the States but would I think have been overall positive for India.
 
They have left room to further arm twist India later on if it doesn't come to heel. India finds itself between a rock and a hard place. The trajectory is now set.

As I said before, this strategic milking on mass scale that Indians had been doing, had to come to a halt at some point. This is that point and it came at a time India least expected especially when it was facing humiliation in the war against Pakistan.

Indians need to understand that there is bipartisan consensus on this issue that India cannot be allowed to become a competitor like China in the future. No matter how compliant Indians may seem to be, the US is essentially building up India to be its competitor in the future. That they cannot allow.
 
The days of IT creating mass employement is over, we have already milked that industry to the max .
Probably true, most of the IT jobs in India I see them getting through internship->fulltime route.
It's academic now since Trump's totally chickened out but I was actually thinking the H1B reversal might not be so bad for India.

The return of 300-400k highly educated professionals would

- Juice up the GCC sector drastically scaling it up and improving the quality of work done there
- Have huge positive impact on the commercial real estate market and perhaps in residential real estate as well
- Add a maybe 10 to 15 Billion Dollars into consumer purchasing power
- Would lead to a real boom in Startups and the kind of talent available

Of course, I understand the humanitarian cost to the people who'd made their lives in the States but would I think have been overall positive for India.

Yes mostly humanitarian cost,many of my friends are in mid-late 30's with family and while folks are moving back considerably considering before still many have family houses and are settled here.

Hyderabad real estate market will explode along with already expensive B'lore, Chennai should be able to manage it.
 
@Theanonymousone making these machines and working on them costs a lot, they also go out of scope very quickly.

These investments are done from governments to multiple companies subsidising the cost.Zeiss-ASML-(Machine ) TSMC-Apple-(manufacture-customer)

Also not only is the machine manufacturing tough its also how to use it, mind you these are not made by Taiwan, the make the factories were these ASML machine from Netherlands come in, the water used in fabs is so pure its undrinkable.
The supply-chains in SemiCon fabs are highly concentrated. Currently, the activity happening in India is mostly in 28-90 nm. Its mostly used in Auto and Electronics sectors.


Along with production linked incentives, there are design linked incentives too. Recently, ARM set shop in Bangalore for 2nm design.


We might not get into SemiCon supply chain in near future but we will do well in design and fabs I feel. We are far behind hut its high time that we get into this. One advantage is that India has good talent pool for VLSI coders and R&D ( https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/future-indias-semiconductor-talent-landscape-20252030-hrgenix-tvdcc) and these are opportunities where our workforce will get into. I graduated in 2015 in electronics engineering (ECE) and we had zero placements in core department. The situation is completely changer now for better.

I am not familiar with all the points you have raised but from a business perspective, low hanging fruits such as low-cost capturing Auto and electronics market shouldn't be an issue.
 
Probably true, most of the IT jobs in India I see them getting through internship->fulltime route.


Yes mostly humanitarian cost,many of my friends are in mid-late 30's with family and while folks are moving back considerably considering before still many have family houses and are settled here.

Hyderabad real estate market will explode along with already expensive B'lore, Chennai should be able to manage it.
If you observe China’s growth, 25% of its growth is driven by real estate sector. A number which was ~40% during its peak.


If you compare that with India, we are barely at 7-8%. We will see some rapid growth during the next 10 years. All the major Tier-1 cities are having skyline expansion with 100-200m tall buildings. Hyderabad in particular is seeing crazy growth.

We all know that IT sector will not absorb all the youth for employment in future. But we are moving away from consultancy trend to GCCs or full-time where pay-scale is better and which in turn drives consumption. The only thing is we need to maintain the tariffs on steel and other tertiary sectors that Chinese imports cannot harm us.

Real-estate will become a key growth engines for us in future.
 
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