Sir I respectfully disagree with alot of what you said. Specially "the 90% Punjabi working class don't give a hoot" part.
Just the previous poster above you actually agreed with that, and he lives in PAK, in Imran's state.
So, the call is subjective - depending on personal experience. You might have seen a small niche segment, or he might have seen a different one, but I am talking about in general trends in Subcontinent. Normally, average people hardly bothers about state level corruption, as long as his essentials are not subject to inflation - rice, wheat, oil, sugar, pulses, salt, chili, onion, ginger, garlic, transit .... They are more than happy, if they can peacefully sleep with wife/kids after having a daal ruti in dinner. The easiest trick that's used to fool people is civil construction - roads, railways, bridges ...... schedule the ribbon cutting ceremony tactfully, 3-5% vote can be switched. Besides, every public works come with added sweetener, which funds the election expenses as well for the ruling party.
Imran is a fantastic person, but I don't think his speeches touch the lower segment that much, but I might be wrong. Besides, Imran might have done great in KPK, but Sharif bros. also have done lot around Lahore & Punjab - normally, people doesn't change their vote, unless they are ****** off with existing rulers, because everyone comes with loaded "promises". And, you'll be surprised to see how much people of subcontinent honors power & position. Sharif family is a symbol of power, possession, aristocracy, riches .... almost like royalty. If PMLN can sort their house and their media can create a feeling that they are going to form Govt. again - you'll see many floating (undecided) voters to vote for them, even from educated urban segment.
Normally, what happens in 5 years election cycle is that, at least 10% new voters add to the system (first time voters), and these young people are more enthusiastic, vocal and often they vote against ruling party - simple reason is that they dream big for future and often in 3rd world country, ruling party ends up losing popularity. These young generation is more active in social media, public forum, which gives a feeling that there is a mass turn around - check their parents, grand parents; often they are careful, tight lipped ...... these are vote banks for established parties.
If PMLN starts to buy out own candidate (make sure that there are no division in their vote bank), and if they can buy few missed candidates (missed nomination in party banner) from PTI & PPP to submit nomination as individual .... it takes only around 3% vote swing for a change over of 20% seats - that's the worst side of parliamentary system in 3rd world countries. If it was a presidential election with the man having highest popular votes to become President, Imran could have been president even in 2008!!!
Let's see - I live in a place where, most of my PAK neighbors are hardcore PMLN people from North-East Punjab; they won't even allow any topic related to negative side of Nawaz family, therefore I might be biased.
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