Will the India Govt. succeed in its designs to re-integrate IOK with India?

[MenInG]

They have taken a bold step but jury is out as to how the measure will succeed in the long run

Both Pakistan and India have huge vested interests in the outcome of this and with Pakistan able to do no more than make defiant noises, its really down to the Kashmiris and public/world opinion to make a dent.

But PM Modi looks resolute in what he wishes to achieve.

 

[Arcturus]

Looks like it will succeed. Govt is following the China approach in case of Tibet.

The "re-integration" wont be a peaceful activity and I am afraid there will be major demographic change.

 

[Majestic_Inzi]

They hav banned qurbani in kashmir, some secular nation.

 

[Red Devil]

Looks like it will succeed. Govt is following the China approach in case of Tibet.

The "re-integration" wont be a peaceful activity and I am afraid there will be major demographic change.

You mean ethnic cleansing? Let's call it what it is.

 

[Hornbill]

There is not going to be any significant change in the valley for at least a decade but jammuites will be the major beneficiaries as most of the companies will prefer to invest in trouble free areas.Another advantage for jammuites is the availability of land.

 

[MenInG]

Please stay on topic

So if the idea is economic prosperity only, the emotional aspect is being ignored - that usually bites in some way in the long term.

 

[JaDed]

Will know after 10 years where its heading.
Hardly anything can be said now, Dogras betrayed the Sikh empire (and 1857 mutiny) and ruled for 100 years on Kashmir with the help of British and pretty much was doing better than most places in South Asia, so economic prosperity did matter.

So basically Dogra rule was more than the current age of India and Pakistan and it started with betrayal.

 

[Itachi]

Please stay on topic

So if the idea is economic prosperity only, the emotional aspect is being ignored - that usually bites in some way in the long term.

I disagree. Coming from place of similar state of affairs where separatist movement was more even than kashmir in the 90s, I can say that economic prosperity is the way to go.

When you have jobs available, industry booming, education sector becoming stable with increasing literacy rate, the future generation accepts it whole heartedly.

There will be disagreement in the current generation. Hence it will take time for the integration to have its full effect but after 30-40 years, the future generations won't have the same mindset provided the infrastructure will be put in place.

 

[Pakistanian]

I guess "re-design" and "integrate" are code for ethnic cleansing.

I don't see India succeeding cause a civil war might break out in Kashmir, I don't think Kashmiris will let the settlers dispossess them of their land. They're gonna resist and it most likely will be violent.

 

[MenInG]

Will know after 10 years where its heading.
Hardly anything can be said now, Dogras betrayed the Sikh empire (and 1857 mutiny) and ruled for 100 years on Kashmir with the help of British and pretty much was doing better than most places in South Asia, so economic prosperity did matter.

So basically Dogra rule was more than the current age of India and Pakistan and it started with betrayal.

By that time (10 years) the human cost may well be humongous

 

[Iqbal'sh]

When you have jobs available, industry booming, education sector becoming stable with increasing literacy rate, the future generation accepts it whole heartedly.
.

Utter rubbish, you only have to look at Mainland Europe which fits all the criteria you mentioned above and still there are any number of separatist movements seeking greater autonomy and/or independence.

 

[JaDed]

By that time (10 years) the human cost may well be humongous

It continued for 1948-2019 .. 2 wars etc and now when Centre is responsible, then centre govn will take over then they will be responsible for all the issues.

 

[JaDed]

Utter rubbish, you only have to look at Mainland Europe which fits all the criteria you mentioned above and still there are any number of separatist movements seeking greater autonomy and/or independence.

Which is true even a city like Barcelona is seeking independence but imagine if Europe level existed in South asia, even Pakistan has so many ethnicities how does that work.. Only country would be BD , Nepal coz one region and ethnicity.(almost)

 

[Itachi]

Utter rubbish, you only have to look at Mainland Europe which fits all the criteria you mentioned above and still there are any number of separatist movements seeking greater autonomy and/or independence.

You'll have to read Indian history and compare that to European history in order to understand the differences. This is why I say, little knowledge is very dangerous.

The social values, perception towards culture and priorities of life is very different in different sectors. This is where compromisation occurs. When states were merged in India, you think there was no separatist movement?

I have presented a case scenario of similar to that of kashmir that has occurred in India. And you are talking about a case scenario of totally different geo political region with different demography.

 

[Iqbal'sh]

You'll have to read Indian history and compare that to European history in order to understand the differences. This is why I say, little knowledge is very dangerous.

The social values, perception towards culture and priorities of life is very different in different sectors. This is where compromisation occurs. When states were merged in India, you think there was no separatist movement?

I have presented a case scenario of similar to that of kashmir that has occurred in India. And you are talking about a case scenario of totally different geo political region with different demography.

Your post is speculative opinion not based on ground realities. It highlights the lack of understanding of the issues that need addressing in Kashmir.
There is no other separatist movement in India, past or present, that can be compared to what is going on in Kashmir.

 

[xbronze]

Your post is speculative opinion not based on ground realities. It highlights the lack of understanding of the issues that need addressing in Kashmir.
There is no other separatist movement in India, past or present, that can be compared to what is going on in Kashmir.

No two separatist movements are ever identical. Friend, Kashmir has been merged into India. Decades from now we can look back and say yes I remember that historic day when Kashmir was integrated with India. 'Wow, little did we know then that India would transform J&K into such a shiny little city on the hill in paradise'.

 

[Instigation22]

No two separatist movements are ever identical. Friend, Kashmir has been merged into India. Decades from now we can look back and say yes I remember that historic day when Kashmir was integrated with India. 'Wow, little did we know then that India would transform J&K into such a shiny little city on the hill in paradise'.

Kuch zada hi hogaya

 

[MenInG]

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Monday said China was highly concerned over the current situation in Indian-occupied Kashmir and escalating conflict between India and Pakistan.

During a meeting with his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who is on a three-day visit to China, Wang Yi said China opposes any unilateral action that complicates the situation in the region.

Read more: Pakistan assured of China's 'complete support' in motion against India at UNSC: FM Qureshi

New Delhi's move to end the constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir will change the status quo of the disputed area and result in a tense situation in the region, he added.

Wang Yi hoped that New Delhi and Islamabad would resolve the dispute in a peaceful manner.

He pointed out that India's recent measures also challenged China's sovereign rights and interests, contrary to the agreement between the two sides on safeguarding the border areas of the two countries.

Know more: China to 'uphold justice for Pakistan' on Kashmir issue

"China is seriously concerned about this," he said, adding that Indian measures will not change the fact that China exercises sovereignty over the relevant territory.

The Chinese foreign minister expressed his hope that New Delhi will take measures to promote mutual trust, peace and tranquility.

Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar explained the position of his country, saying the Indian constitutional amendment did not produce new sovereignty, or change the India-Pakistan ceasefire line, as well as the actual line of control, the India-China border.

The Indian side expressed hope for improvement in relations with Pakistan. The minister said that New Delhi was willing to exercise restraint and maintain regional peace and stability.

He assured his Chinese counterpart that Indian was also willing to properly resolve the border issue between India and China through consultations. He said News Delhi will abide by the consensus reached by the two countries on maintaining peace in border areas.

The Indian minister's visit comes amid growing tensions between India and Pakistan over occupied Kashmir.

During his stay, Jaishankar co-chaired the second meeting of the China-India high-level people-to-people exchanges mechanism with his Chinese counterpart.

Last week, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi paid an emergency visit to China and briefed Wang on Islamabad's stance over the prevailing situation.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1499323/b...d-kashmir-chinese-fm-tells-indian-counterpart

 

[JaDed]

Chinese are stuck with Hong Kong at the moment.

Look at the leaders around world right now:
Trump
Putin
Modi
Xi
Erdogan

Lol I mean has the world ever seen such power hungry leaders all ruling at the same point in time of history?
Most are elected in some form or the other, two have already made sure they break their constitution to rule extra.
Another two have altered constitution in someway or the other.

Of all the above rulers Trump is the only one to not have messed with the constitution yet.(if am correct).

Also Conservatives are in power in UK and nearing in other states, Trudeau seems to be the leader of a liberals in world right now and he is heading nowhere.

 

[xbronze]

Kuch zada hi hogaya

To kam kar doon?

 

[saintgrace]

Ladak, jammu will be easily integrated. Kashmir valley will take some times. There is no quick fix for this solution. They will have election and government will decide how the land reform, job reform ects will take. For example , telangana have 70% localalite reservation in private sector. How much the J&K gov can do under UT will decide their future.
for short answer, Yes.

 

[ReverseHit]

Where's the 'can go either way' option?

A lot depends on both internal and external factors. If the Centre focusses on providing good governance, corruption free local bodies and bureaucracy, gradually loosens the security grip, and reached out through a mix of goodwill gestures and propaganda, it may very well succeed. However, this will require a sustained effort over the next 10-15 years.

Externally, it depends on Pakistan too. If they slowly let their voices whimper away and do not send through jihadis/foment unrest by constantly provoking Kashmiris, it will be much easier for the Indian government.

If not, we may just see a continuation of the last 3 decades with even more heavy-handedness from the Centre and an increase in the rate at which separatists die. The final outcome in that case may either be a forcefully integrated Kashmir or another war between India and Pakistan.

BTW the above is only for Kashmir. Jammu and Ladakh are already in.

 

[Itachi]

Your post is speculative opinion not based on ground realities. It highlights the lack of understanding of the issues that need addressing in Kashmir.
There is no other separatist movement in India, past or present, that can be compared to what is going on in Kashmir.

Then you have no idea about Indian history.

Go check history of North East India during 80s onwards.

I will again repeat, little knowledge is dangerous.

First, read and grasp the various events in timeline in different separatist movement. Then come and write here the above. I will listen then.

 

[MenInG]

Looks like India floundering a bit but holding on for the moment - How long can they keep IOK shutdown is the question

 

[loves_cricket]

Then you have completely misjudged Indian govt. Modi have managed some thing that no previous govt had, world wide good relations.
Even Muslim nations are keeping quiet.
Also as i said economic interests are now a big driving factor.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

Looks like it will succeed. Govt is following the China approach in case of Tibet.

The "re-integration" wont be a peaceful activity and I am afraid there will be major demographic change.

China is a strictly secular nation, in fact all religion is suppressed. India is going the other way with the country voting for a party which puts Hindu identity as it's major agenda. This is going to create resentment within minorities, and I am not sure ethnic cleansing can work on such a large scale.

 

[Major]

This has opened a can of worms now.

The matter will go to UN first, if it doenst get solved there, then this could result in a war very soon.

Modi has played it clever though. Look this was on his agenda way in the past, but he didn't go for it immiediatly, he created good relations with foreign countries, that Saudia investment and all.

Then he makes the move after election. He has the backing of UAE and Saudi.
The last thing left is Veto Power, once that gets used, then byebye UN

After that it will be on Pakistan and they will have to fight a war then

 

[Manager101]

I want Pok, Iok and Cok to unite and form an independent country. Enough of these hypocrite nuclear powers playing a blood game for a piece of land and smashing the weaker entities.

Shame on UN for not solving this issue for 70 years and still call themselves the peace-keepers. One sentence for all those so called super powers who control UN "You all are pathetic."

 

[Diffusion]

China is a strictly secular nation, in fact all religion is suppressed. India is going the other way with the country voting for a party which puts Hindu identity as it's major agenda. This is going to create resentment within minorities, and I am not sure ethnic cleansing can work on such a large scale.

China doesn't need to use religion to galvanise & unite its people actually. They use the ethnicity to do that (an overwhelming amount of Chinese people would identify as Han Chinese).

China's a difficult country to understand, but from my little understanding religion has never really been their tool to unite & control people. This is different to the history of the subcontinent, western Asia & all of Europe where for the last 2000 years Religion has been the powerful tool in expanding influence and control - like the crusades.

 

[JaDed]

China doesn't need to use religion to galvanise & unite its people actually. They use the ethnicity to do that (an overwhelming amount of Chinese people would identify as Han Chinese).

China's a difficult country to understand, but from my little understanding religion has never really been their tool to unite & control people. This is different to the history of the subcontinent, western Asia & all of Europe where for the last 2000 years Religion has been the powerful tool in expanding influence and control - like the crusades.

Because they realized the power of ethnicity over religion, Hans are a strong bunch and the way cultural revolution happened they made sure religion would have zilch power over religion in next 100 years.

Look at the rise of Hans in xinjang ,Tibet etc

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

China doesn't need to use religion to galvanise & unite its people actually. They use the ethnicity to do that (an overwhelming amount of Chinese people would identify as Han Chinese).

China's a difficult country to understand, but from my little understanding religion has never really been their tool to unite & control people. This is different to the history of the subcontinent, western Asia & all of Europe where for the last 2000 years Religion has been the powerful tool in expanding influence and control - like the crusades.

Well yes, that is in agreement with what I said I think. China not being irreligious gives some veneer of justification for their crackdown on those who are. BJP with their Hindu revivalism core message will be viewed differently. I am also unconvinced that it goes hand in hand with economic growth.

 

[MenInG]

This has opened a can of worms now.

The matter will go to UN first, if it doenst get solved there, then this could result in a war very soon.

Modi has played it clever though. Look this was on his agenda way in the past, but he didn't go for it immiediatly, he created good relations with foreign countries, that Saudia investment and all.

Then he makes the move after election. He has the backing of UAE and Saudi.
The last thing left is Veto Power, once that gets used, then byebye UN

After that it will be on Pakistan and they will have to fight a war then

Being a big economic power also has its downside.

India has much more to lose if tensions increase. Pakistan doesnt have much so nothing really changes for us.

 

[GBK_Fan]

Being a big economic power also has its downside.

India has much more to lose if tensions increase. Pakistan doesnt have much so nothing really changes for us.

You know that’s not true. You need to feed your poor or risk civil war. Pakistan is in the middle of a bailout and can not afford a conflict. India has 400b in reserves

 

[anand99]

China is too busy dealing with a separatist movement in HK right now to care about Pakistan. They have their own integrating to do. China may be secular on religious grounds but they are very focused on the Han Chinese identity being the only true Chinese identity. I have spent a lot of time living and working in china over the years.

 

[Extra_Cover]

On the topic, Kashmir would never integrate with India in long-term and neither would India integrate with Kashmir. Reason for non-integration is largely religion and hatred.

Kashmir have not integrated with rest of India for over 70 years, a strike of paper based resolution would not change that. The people of Kashmir have seen oppression and violations from India towards them for decades precisely the last 3 decades were worst. Now, you think after striking of some paper based resolution would make them forget all the years of oppression and integrate with India? The answer is resounding no. A teenage Kashmiri has seen oppression towards his mother, sister, siblings and friends; you have read how Kashmiri mind works its that they want guns so they can use them instead of using stones. Goodluck with integration.

India would not integrate with Kashmir because the majority of India now has RSS ideology. This move was not done to integrate with Kashmir out of thin air, this move was done solely to show hatred towards Pakistan after the news of Kashmir issue were ushered in White House. This was a panic move by Modi to show blatant hatred towards Pakistan and belittle Pakistan. As far as Indians are concerned they don't look towards Kashmir in a different way now that some resolution has been revoked. They don't want anything to do with those people but at same time dont want to give away the land. If Indian people can integrate cow cattlers and beef eaters in their community, do you think they would integrate with a muslim majority land? The answer is again no.

Now, the only integration that Modi can hope for is a forceful integration. By this I mean forcefully ask Kashmiris to give away their lands. Terrorise the population in there by direct shooting, harassment of women, kidnapping of kids, etc. This is the reason there is a curfew in place at the moment. The moment this blackout is lifted the acts done by the state would be at the upfront of media so I'm very sure that Indian state would want this blackout to last until this issue dies down in the media. On the flip side Pakistan's best efforts would be to not let this issue die in media because as long as this issue is hot this blackout will not be lifted and pressure will be mounting on India. As far as integration is concerned its a big no.

 

[Major]

I think from an economic point of view it is abit risky for Pakistan.

Because Imran has taken all those necessary correct steps that will result in the inflation rate decreasing in the long run. But the steps were such that we have to face inflation in the short run for the time being.

There was a chance of us going into hyper inflation but the US visit saved us as USA will give us aid in future and won't allow us to go into hyper inflation.

If Pakistan goes into war, then it will depend on what kind of war would be fought. Would it be the usual LOC fight, or a Kargil type? Or a total war with India where all our resources would be put into the war effort.
People often joke about how Pakistan-India war will be the 3rd world war, but what people often forget is that if its a World war type fight, we will have to go into total war in the long run to sustain it.

The only good thing right now is that all Pakistanis are with Kashmir, hence if we go to war now there will be public support for it.
If this matter gets delayed uptil January 2020, then we will have to say goodbye to Kashmir.

These 3 months will be crucial for Pakistan, first we have to wait for UN and then after that if we dont get a favorable decision than the ball is in our court.

But another problem is when the war will escalate, then UN and USA will wake up. Then maybe article 370 would be imposed again and both countries will get their territory back, but Kashmir will stay as disputed.

I think Pakistan needs to be clear, what do they want currently. Do they want Article 370 to be imposed again, or do they want a final solution on kashmir where they capture the whole territory and give its independence to it or keep it for themselves.

If we go for the independence move, then its a full fledge total war, and Pakistan should go for it after they are sure they have the resources for it.

If its for article 370 to be imposed yet again, then all Pakistan needs to do is capture some land or make such an attack and bare a few attacks (for the sake of the Kashmiri's) that after a while USA and UN wakes up and force both countries to stop and ask India to put article 370 back.

 

[anand99]

Ignoring all the noise in the media, it boils down to something pretty straightforward and as an external observer sitting in the US here is my take. Modi has redefined the status quo in Kashmir not only by removing article 370 but also by turning the state into two union territories. There is nothing that the international community can do about this. And modi is not going anywhere unlike Trump after four years. Modi, for all intents and purposes is a emperor till he dies like Xi Jingping. He has a stranglehold majority in the Indian elections and with this move had gained even more popularity amongst an Indian public that was sick and tired of hearing about Kashmir.

Modi will continue to do what he wants to do in j&k and ladakh. That is who he is. The UN is an impotent organization that has never done anything of value. They will keep discussing the issue with no action. The question is only this - what will pakistan do or more appropriate question would be what can it do. Social media victories are meaningless. Winning the hearts and minds of SJWs world over is meaningless. As has been witnessed time and again with the liberal left here in the US and trump. He just keeps marching on. So the question is how do you defeat modi, if you cannot defeat him in the polls. Pakistan for all it's obsession over Kashmir finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

 

[Kroll]

Seems something more sinister than simple "re-integration". Modi's quench for Muslim blood shows no sign of diminishing even after Gujarat. This extremist Hindu dacoit must be stopped.

 

[fitCricFan]

Lack of education breeds ignorance. Check out the credentials of these so called leaders of the Hurriat in kashmir and see how they and their clans have been living as elites, getting the best from the Indian treatment tomaintain a quid-pro-quo in Kashmir. While their kin and relatives enjoyed the best of best including medical treatment, security etc from the Indian govt, most of the less fortunate Kashmiris could only dream of such facilities. These are the folks who will be at the loosing end and will be trying to fomet trouble so that they can try to maintain their elite status as an entititlent.

Since freedom, most of these so called leaders have done squat for the commoners except fill their own coffers.Now that they are being sidelined, folks on the street can expect to see lot of the money which otherwise would have ended with these corrupt politicians