General Election 2017 - Round 2, November (December?) 2017

[Yossarian]

Yes folks. There will almost certainly be another election before the end of the year.

Here's why:

1. The Tories need the support of the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) to govern.

2. Brexit requires a deal with Ireland/EU regarding Northern Ireland no matter what. The DUP probably won't like any sensible deal that works.

3. That will make any Tory/DUP deal difficult to last. Because DUP will demand too much from the Tories for their support.

4. Labour can't have a majority without support of all other parties, inc DUP.

5. DUP will never support Corbyn because of IRA.

Hence because of 5 year rule, the PM cant just call an election. So if Tories can't govern, Labour will be given a chance to govern. And if they can't do that for long (points 4 & 5 above), then a way will be found to have another election.

(Before you dismiss this forecast out of hand, bear in mind my other forecast/thread when the election was first announced in April re- Theresa May's gamble failing, when most were predicting a 100 - 150 Tory majority))

 

[Markhor]

I'll be surprised if the Tories allow Theresa May another crack at an election campaign after the disaster this turned out to be.

The DUP (not UUP, they've been wiped out) said in their manifesto they don't want a hard border with the Republic and want a "frictionless" border by maintaining the Common Travel Area post-Brexit.

However governing with a wafer-thin majority is extremely difficult - every vote in Parliament hangs on a knife edge as the Callaghan government of 1977-79 and the Major government of the 1990s can attest to.

 

[Yossarian]

^^ DUP, UUP I stand corrected.

Mods: any chance you could correct the OP?

I didn't say Theresa May. I said Tories (ie no matter who the Tory PM)

 

[Markhor]

^^ DUP, UUP I stand corrected.

Mods: any chance you could correct the OP?

I didn't say Theresa May. I said Tories (ie no matter who the Tory PM)

Yes to your point if a Tory-DUP government banking on a wafer-thin majority, which inevitably gets whittled away due to resignations/byelections etc over the course of a government's term, and given Labour cannot command a majority either even with a progressive alliance - there is NO alternative but to go to the country again.

 

[s28]

Labour already preparing for next Election

Membership drive (150,000 added since General Election I taking membership to 800,000)
That will in turn drive funding (800,000 members paying £50 p.a. would be £40m a year in annual fees) and by itself be more than the Tories get from all funding sources. Without taking into account Donations / Trade Union support / Short Money

 

[James]

Anyone that can afford it should be donating to the Labour Party right now, and / or joining. Personally, I have rejoined (first renewal since 2012) and voluntarily upped my membership fee. The British people need to work together to force another General Election.

 

[Yossarian]

Theresa May and the Tories working hand in hand with the DUP is like Trump supporters being racists and members of the Ku Klux Klan ..... oh, but wait ...

 

[Markhor]

A combined Tory/DUP alliance would have a Parliamentary majority of 13 given Sinn Fein abstains and the Speaker and deputy speakers don't vote.

Now bear in mind you'll have junior and Cabinet ministers off to Brussels for Brexit negotiations. That leaves a wafer thin majority.

We're back to the Wilson/Callaghan days when MPs were dragged from hospital beds to prevent the government from falling !

Given how increasingly rebellious MPs have become, every vote will hang on a knife edge.

 

[Robert]

The Tories won't give May another chance, assuming GE17.2 happens.

They will bring in a warmer and more charismatic Leader, soften their manifesto, talk up their economic achievements instead of the negative and backfiring attacks on Corbyn, target the right marginals this time and gain a small majority.

Down in my part of the nation there is talk of a Lib and Lab truce - each runs a paper candidate in a key marginal, piling activists in elsewhere, and each gains a seat from the Tories.

 

[Yossarian]

A combined Tory/DUP alliance would have a Parliamentary majority of 13 given Sinn Fein abstains and the Speaker and deputy speakers don't vote.

Now bear in mind you'll have junior and Cabinet ministers off to Brussels for Brexit negotiations. That leaves a wafer thin majority.

We're back to the Wilson/Callaghan days when MPs were dragged from hospital beds to prevent the government from falling !

Given how increasingly rebellious MPs have become, every vote will hang on a knife edge.

And that's even before some Tory rebels abstaining, or rather 'going sick' on the day (ie those that are angry with Theresa May for staying on. They won't be afraid of defying the Whip since they know Theresa May is in no position to withdraw the Whip on a permanent basis)

As George Osborne said this morning "Theresa May is a dead woman walking". She should never have sacked him from the Cabinet when she became PM.

 

[Yossarian]

The Tories won't give May another chance, assuming GE17.2 happens.

They will bring in a warmer and more charismatic Leader, soften their manifesto, talk up their economic achievements instead of the negative and backfiring attacks on Corbyn, target the right marginals this time and gain a small majority.

Down in my part of the nation there is talk of a Lib and Lab truce - each runs a paper candidate in a key marginal, piling activists in elsewhere, and each gains a seat from the Tories.

Question is who?

Boris? He'll say something stupid, and bang go any chances.
Philip Hammond? He makes John Major look vibrant and colourful (grey man, Spitting Images?)
David Davis?
Amber Rudd would have been the best option after her performance in the leaders debate. But considering she won her seat by around 300 votes this time around, do the Tories really want to elect someone as PM who then loses her seat at the next General Election?

 

[Markhor]

The Tories won't give May another chance, assuming GE17.2 happens.

They will bring in a warmer and more charismatic Leader, soften their manifesto, talk up their economic achievements instead of the negative and backfiring attacks on Corbyn, target the right marginals this time and gain a small majority.

Down in my part of the nation there is talk of a Lib and Lab truce - each runs a paper candidate in a key marginal, piling activists in elsewhere, and each gains a seat from the Tories.

The problem for the Tories is who that leader is. Amber Rudd is hanging on a knife edge in Hastings, Anna Soubry has a wafer thin majority in Broxtowe, and Boris Johnson will be a laughable choice. Liam Fox would be too right wing while Michael Gove probably lacks allies.

With regards to marginals, this election has blown open a number of Tory seats that Labour didn't seriously target as they were considered safe. Now Labour has data they can use the data to target seats they have a real chance of winning and forming a government.

Meanwhile, George Osborne seems to be having the time of his life The liberal, metropolitan Tories like Cameron and Osborne have no love for Theresa May given her stance on Hard Brexit and her support for grammar schools and fox hunting which was sacrificed at the altar of modernisation by Cameron and co.

 

[Markhor]

Question is who?

Boris? He'll say something stupid, and bang go any chances.
Philip Hammond? He makes John Major look vibrant and colourful (grey man, Spitting Images?)
David Davis?
Amber Rudd would have been the best option after her performance in the leaders debate. But considering she won her seat by around 300 votes this time around, do the Tories really want to elect someone as PM who then loses her seat at the next General Election?

David Davis is one of the few Tories I respect because of his principled stance on civil liberties.

He opposed ID cards, the Snooper's Charter, detention without trial, helped free Shaker Aamer (Davis even went on hunger strike in solidarity with him !), spoke out against rendition and torture that New Labour turned a blind eye to and opposed the draconian Trade Union bill.

 

[Yossarian]

David Davis is one of the few Tories I respect because of his principled stance on civil liberties.

He opposed ID cards, the Snooper's Charter, detention without trial, helped free Shaker Aamer (Davis even went on hunger strike in solidarity with him !), spoke out against rendition and torture that New Labour turned a blind eye to and opposed the draconian Trade Union bill.

Didn't David Davis say that EU free movement of people may not be axed in order to get a good deal for the economy? That'll go down like a lead balloon with the right-wingers in the Tory Party as well as the millions of Brexit voters who's main reason for voting Brexit was to curb immigration.

 

[Robert]

The problem for the Tories is who that leader is. Amber Rudd is hanging on a knife edge in Hastings, Anna Soubry has a wafer thin majority in Broxtowe, and Boris Johnson will be a laughable choice. Liam Fox would be too right wing while Michael Gove probably lacks allies.

With regards to marginals, this election has blown open a number of Tory seats that Labour didn't seriously target as they were considered safe. Now Labour has data they can use the data to target seats they have a real chance of winning and forming a government.

Meanwhile, George Osborne seems to be having the time of his life The liberal, metropolitan Tories like Cameron and Osborne have no love for Theresa May given her stance on Hard Brexit and her support for grammar schools and fox hunting which was sacrificed at the altar of modernisation by Cameron and co.

Might as well fight a Labour populist with a Tory populist in Boris. He beat Livingstone to get elected Major Of London twice.

I agree on Osborne. The Standard really stuck the knife into May and that helped collapse the Tory vote in London.

 

[s28]

Boris will never be forgiven by Remainers and has shown himself to be incompetent as well as malicious

His polling right now is terrible versus other candidates

 

[s28]

Momentum and Labour already getting ready for next campaign

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There's a huge task ahead - but never again can anyone say you can't change the world.<br>✔ <a href="https://t.co/a1MDh6DlnP">https://t.co/a1MDh6DlnP</a><br>✔ <a href="https://t.co/pzSpvmajUx">https://t.co/pzSpvmajUx</a> <a href="https://t.co/X37gcAZqNu">pic.twitter.com/X37gcAZqNu</a></p>— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/873972853103878144">11 June 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[s28]

The potential is truly incredible.

I campaigned in the marginals of Wolverhampton SW and Telford, there was a noticeable difference in the two campaigns. Wolverhampton SW was a pro-Corbyn candidate and campaign (lots of feet on the ground) whilst Telford had a anti-Corbyn candidate who didn't include any National stuff on his literature and did not have enough feet on the ground. (Indeed in Wolverhampton SW we had Momentum members coming from nearby anti-Corbyn areas to campaign for us instead)

On any one day we had 20 people campaigning.

However if Labour/Momentum have say 600,000 members it should mean c. 1000 members per constituency. It should be possible to get at least 10% of those people active so in any one constituency and 100 people going out every day having doorstep conversations can make a major difference to a constituency with on average 35,000 households/80,000 constituents

 

[s28]

Also this campaign was by necessity 'defensive' due to the position we started in in the polls. Future campaigns can be more agressive and offensive i.e. not just about getting the core vote out but persuading other voters to switch and Momentum seem to be learning a lot in this regard from the Sanders campaign

 

[James]

Anyone that can afford it should be donating to the Labour Party right now, and / or joining. Personally, I have rejoined (first renewal since 2012) and voluntarily upped my membership fee. The British people need to work together to force another General Election.

Further to this comment, when Parliament is opened there will be a summer recess period announced as well.

If Labour are to capitalise on their opportunity, they need to influence everyone they can and put pressure everywhere they can to produce a fresh GE call before the recess.

Otherwise the momentum will be somewhat lost IMO.

Thornberry has stated today that if another nationwide ballot were taken today that Labour would win outright, and I am inclined to agree.

 

[s28]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...ttle-help-bernie-how-labour-fought-its-ground

Labour are surging in the polls (this is from Survation who were the most accurate pollsters in run up to June 8th)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>LAB: 45% (+5)<br>CON: 39% (-3)<br>LDEM: 7% (-)<br>UKIP: 3% (+1)<br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/Survation">@Survation</a> / 10 Jun)<br>Chgs. w/ GE2017</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/873674408224862210">10 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[James]

Crikey.

Theresa will not be sleeping much at the moment that's for sure.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Anyone that can afford it should be donating to the Labour Party right now, and / or joining. Personally, I have rejoined (first renewal since 2012) and voluntarily upped my membership fee. The British people need to work together to force another General Election.

I joined yesterday.

 

[s28]

Momentum also having a membership drive. Worth joining them in my opinion as they are so innovative in their use of social media and Sanders campaign tools/canvassers

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Over 1,300 people joined <a href="https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum">@PeoplesMomentum</a> this weekend. Will you? &#55357;&#56832;<a href="https://t.co/rbTvNm0EsS">https://t.co/rbTvNm0EsS</a></p>— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/874341534308605952">12 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[WC-Passion]

Labour are on the up but there's still a long road ahead.

Personally don't see May lasting long, her campaign has been a disaster.

 

[s28]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...bour-knocking-on-doors-jeremy-corbyn-momentum

Labour has staged one of the most spectacular comebacks in British political history. Polling at just 24% when the election was called, in seven weeks Labour has rocketed in the polls, gained 32 seats and made striking inroads into Conservative heartlands.

Jeremy Corbyn’s principled, transformational programme achieved the unprecedented. People of all ages were inspired. Thousands came to hear him speak. Record numbers registered to vote. Chants of “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn” erupted at festivals, sporting events and clubs across the country.

The hope that had already experienced by the Labour membership began to percolate into wider society. And people liked what they saw.

Proposing a transformational manifesto mattered. Corbyn’s warmth and authenticity resonated. Labour’s energetic, front-footed campaign was key. A savvy use of social media, by the Labour party and Momentum, mobilised young voters to turn out and snatch seats such as Sheffield Hallam and Canterbury.

But what is often overlooked – and constitutes the beating heart of the Corbyn project – is the flourishing, vibrant movement of ordinary people who flooded into marginals and had millions of conversations on the doorstep.

At Momentum, this was our focus. On a shoestring budget we mobilised far beyond our 24,000 members. By running a nimble, creative campaign with a youthful staff we connected with those who were new to the Labour party, new to campaigning and often new to politics. We gave people confidence. We lowered the barriers to getting involved. We made canvassing more accessible.

How did we do it? Over the election we ran 50 campaign weekends that mobilised tens of thousands of activists to knock on doors in key marginal seats. Our Bernie Sanders organisers trained thousands of activists across the country in how to have authentic, empathetic conversations that went beyond data collection.

My Nearest Marginal, our online marginals map that made it easy to find your closest Labour battleground, became a key tool in directing activists to strategic constituencies and was used by more than 100,000 people across the party. On election day, nearly 10,000 Momentum activists pledged to take the day off work and knocked on more than 1.2m doors to make sure Labour voters cast their ballot.

The story of this election is that ordinary people have redrawn the electoral map. Seats such as Battersea and Sheffield Hallam, deemed by regional Labour parties as unwinnable, were won by members going out on the doors anyway because they believed they could win. Victories in Leeds North West, Crewe & Nantwich, Croydon Central, Derby North, Brighton Kemptown and many more can be attributed to this same effect. Ordinary people flooding the doorstep talking about policies that resonate.

Academics have long known the importance of ground game. But in an era where many mistrust the media, face-to-face conversations that speak to the issues people care about only become more crucial. And on election day, when making sure Labour supporters actually turnout to vote, hundreds of people pounding the pavement can (and did) make all the difference.

At Momentum, we’re going to continue on a permanent campaign footing. With an election in the next six months likely, we’re going to ramp up our activity in newly marginal seats and embed the Labour party in communities outside of election time.

We really do live in an incredible moment. The sense of possibility is palpable, and I can only feel the urgency of our movement is intensifying. We’ve already caused one of the biggest political upsets in British history. And I’m confident we’ll see a Corbyn-led Labour government in less than 12 months. This is the new political reality. And I can only describe it as thrilling.

 

[irfan]

Labour still need to appeal more to working people and small businesses

 

[Yossarian]

The potential is truly incredible.

I campaigned in the marginals of Wolverhampton SW and Telford, there was a noticeable difference in the two campaigns. Wolverhampton SW was a pro-Corbyn candidate and campaign (lots of feet on the ground) whilst Telford had a anti-Corbyn candidate who didn't include any National stuff on his literature and did not have enough feet on the ground. (Indeed in Wolverhampton SW we had Momentum members coming from nearby anti-Corbyn areas to campaign for us instead)

On any one day we had 20 people campaigning.

However if Labour/Momentum have say 600,000 members it should mean c. 1000 members per constituency. It should be possible to get at least 10% of those people active so in any one constituency and 100 people going out every day having doorstep conversations can make a major difference to a constituency with on average 35,000 households/80,000 constituents

Corbyn's supporters on Labour's National Executive Committee should table a motion for the autumn Labour conference to pass changes that will make it much easier for Labour's local constituency parties to deselect sitting MP's and forcing them to reapply to become official candidates again at the next General Election.

This will then put a damper to the ludicrous situation we had in this general Election whereby ardent Corbyn supporters were forced to vote for Labour candidates who were vehemently anti-Corbyn and likely to do their utmost to get rid of Corbyn at the earliest opportunity.

Most of these anti-Corbyn MP's who have been constantly attacking and trying to oust Corbyn since he was elected leader of the Labour party, and thus were responsible for most of the negative views of Corbyn amongst the general public (before the General Election) now owe their re-election to Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters doing all the hard work.

And yet they will again be ready to back stab Corbyn the first opportunity they get. An example being Chuka Umunna.

 

[Yossarian]

Jeremy Corbyn trolling Theresa May

"Labour is ready to offer “strong and stable leadership in the national interest” if Theresa May fails to form a “coalition of chaos” with the DUP" )

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mjeOZe6XiNA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Markhor]

In order to predict the outcome of the next election, we must analyse the results of this election to see the parties' strengths and where they need to build support. Credit to YouGov:

Wow, Labour won amongst 40-49 year olds ! The tipping point, that is the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour, is now 47 – up from 34 at the start of the campaign.

However Conservatives decisively won amongst the over 50s despite the dementia tax and pledge to scrap the triple lock on pensions. It is a generation that still remembers the era of IRA attacks so maybe that attack on Corbyn worked. Although the youth turnout was up from 2015, turnout amongst 70+ voters is a staggering 84% !

Now look at this:

Labour only 4 points behind the Tories in ABC1 class voters. Middle-class professionals seem some of the most pro-Corbyn supporters going. Tories did surprisingly well amongst DE voters, support from working-class Leave voters probably being one factor.

Conclusion - another push is needed from Labour to win support amongst pensioners. More needs to be done to allay fears of small business too.

 

[Markhor]

Read the full YouGov breakdown here, very intriguing to read as always after an election:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

 

[Markhor]

Boris Johnson was a disaster on Eddie Mair's programme this week. If the media were fair, they'd highlight his car crash of a performance to the same degree as they did with Corbyn's Woman's Hour showing in the campaign. Utterly embarrassing that a senior Cabinet minister doesn't even know what's in his own Queen's Speech.

I quite enjoyed reading former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes' blog on Boris:

Then there is Bozo. Unfit for office, lazy, scheming and a national disgrace. If you think May is bloody awful, this thoroughly dishonest tub of lard is in a league of his own. His Eddie Mair interview was typically slap dash and unprepared.

He hadn’t a clue what was in the Queen’s speech and didn’t much care. But what I find so ghastly about this pustule on the sphincter of government is his shameless pursuit of Number 10. At any cost. He gets his people to brief against May and take soundings on the back benches. He then denies any plotting and urges his backbenchers to be loyal to her. Now, he has announced that he will not stand for the leadership until 2019. How very generous.

But it doesn’t stop there. He is now briefing against David Davis. ‘Too old…..beaten by Cameron’, followed by pics of him with two busty girls with DD slogans on their breasts. The sheer hypocrisy of Bozo trying smear Davis with bit of mild sexism is breathtaking. But predictable. Yet I have some very sad news. Bozo’s seat disappears in boundary changes. If I wasn’t on the wagon I’d crack open the prosecco.

 

[s28]

Meanwhile Corbyn is headlining Glastonbury

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thank you <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Glastonbury?src=hash">#Glastonbury</a> for inviting me to speak on the Pyramid Stage about how, together, we can build a country <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheMany?src=hash">#ForTheMany</a>, not the few. <a href="https://t.co/vutOyFsFSo">pic.twitter.com/vutOyFsFSo</a></p>— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/878636209689559041">24 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Robert]

[MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION] - what I found most remarkable about the Bozzer interview was how he could not answer the question on May's belief that racial discrimination in the justice system must be tackled. Not only did he not know the answer, the question had never even crossed his mind. He lives in that rarefied world where this issue is simply irrelevent. He believes he should be PM because it's natural that he should be, and has done nothing to earn it.

Yet I think Corbyn Labour has reached the high-water mark. To win you have to engage the centre vote. Next time the Tories will have dropped their vote-losing policies, probably be led by the slightly warmer Hammond, softened their Brexit stance and will bang the economy drum.

 

[s28]

the economy already slowing, will be worse as any form of Brexit approaches ; interest rates increasing to combat inflation will kill the housing market where the Price/Earnings ratio is in bubble/crash territory

 

[James]

Hammond strikes me as dull. Tories need to find a leader with some engagement and personality - otherwise Corbyn will continue to eat up the floating voters.

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jeremy Corbyn says Grenfell tragedy raises wider questions over inequality as he addresses thousands at Glastonbury festival <a href="https://t.co/BMxoWi6QFv">pic.twitter.com/BMxoWi6QFv</a></p>— ITV News (@itvnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/878656334861922304">24 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Yossarian]

Best bet for Labour would be the Conservatives don't hold another election for at least another 18 months. By then it will have hit home to the Brexiteers the folly of what they have done, since the 'negotiations' would have either failed, or Britain basically ended up effectively still being in the EU, with the only difference being the fact that Britain was technically not a member any more and thus not able to take part in any decision making.

 

[Robert]

the economy already slowing, will be worse as any form of Brexit approaches ; interest rates increasing to combat inflation will kill the housing market where the Price/Earnings ratio is in bubble/crash territory

Maybe we need another housing price crash, so that the young people can get a foot on the ladder. That was how I got on, back in the mid-nineties.

 

[Markhor]

[MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION] - what I found most remarkable about the Bozzer interview was how he could not answer the question on May's belief that racial discrimination in the justice system must be tackled. Not only did he not know the answer, the question had never even crossed his mind. He lives in that rarefied world where this issue is simply irrelevent. He believes he should be PM because it's natural that he should be, and has done nothing to earn it.

Yet I think Corbyn Labour has reached the high-water mark. To win you have to engage the centre vote. Next time the Tories will have dropped their vote-losing policies, probably be led by the slightly warmer Hammond, softened their Brexit stance and will bang the economy drum.

Hasn't the centre ground shown signs of shifting with the rise of Corbyn, Sanders and the success of other leftist parties across Europe ?

Since the 1980s, the Westminster commentariat consensus has been that if a progressive is to be credible - they must accept privatisation, they must accept deregulation, they must accept low taxes on the rich and for multinational corporations, be unquestioning of globalisation and accept an interventionist foreign policy in the Middle East.

I don't see what's "centrist" about any of those positions that so-called moderates like Tony Blair and George Osborne espouse, who I'd argue are to the right of Ted Heath and Harold MacMillan.

Corbyn's 2017 Manifesto, denounced as a return to the 1970s, was to the right of Labour's 1983 Manifesto. Unlike 1983, there were no calls for unilateral nuclear disarmament, a Five Year Plan, nationalisation of the commanding heights of the economy or reimposition of import controls.

David Owen, whom we both agree is no rabid Marxist, described the manifesto as a fairly mainstream social democratic platform "streets" ahead of 1983. I agree Corbyn needs to allay the fears of small business and centrist voters, but this concept of the centre ground has become so nebulous and ill-defined that even the proponents of it have lost track of what it is. This isn't the 1990s, if mainstream centrism was still a winning formula then Hillary Clinton would've won last November.

 

[James]

Corbyn now (he didn't always, even perhaps until quite recently) probably finds himself somewhere between a social democrat and a socialist. Not a left libertarian, because the state under Corbyn still seems quite large; not even an ultra-soft authoritarian leftist, although he still keeps nuclear weapons.

Perhaps a new name will be invented for it. Corbynism?

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After a tough couple of weeks for the British PM - what’s next? Here’s <a href="https://twitter.com/rabbitandcoffee">@rabbitandcoffee</a> with ‘Theresa May and the Holy Grail’. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/auspol?src=hash">#auspol</a> <a href="https://t.co/P7Pnb0vwMo">pic.twitter.com/P7Pnb0vwMo</a></p>— Insiders ABC (@InsidersABC) <a href="https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/878766306261999616">25 June 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Yossarian]

The Tory Government Cabinet Ministers infighting goes public.

Philip Hammond at odds with David Davis over Brexit transition

Chancellor takes jab at Boris Johnson and advocates softer EU departure while Brexit secretary says UK will be out of customs union by 2019


Philip Hammond has taken a swipe at Boris Johnson and appeared at odds with David Davis over a post-Brexit transitional deal, in fresh evidence of tensions between cabinet colleagues.

The chancellor warned in a speech in Berlin that negotiations would be jeopardised if parties allowed “petty politics to interfere with economic logic”.

Reiterating warnings about a possible “cliff edge” of tariffs, Hammond urged the government to negotiate an early transitional arrangement that “allows the complex supply chains and business relationships that crisscross our continent to continue to deliver value”.

However, later on Tuesday afternoon, Davis, the Brexit secretary, insisted in a separate event in London that the UK would be fully outside of the customs union and single market by March 2019.

Downing Street sought to play down any differences between the two, saying both were “on the same page” about the need for an implementation period after the two-year article 50 timetable for EU withdrawal has elapsed.

Burnishing his role as the cabinet’s most vocal advocate of a softer departure from the EU, Hammond also took a barely disguised jab at Johnson, the foreign secretary.

The chancellor alluded to Johnson’s pronouncement that “my policy on cake is pro having it and pro eating it”, by quoting Germany’s postwar chancellor Ludwig Erhard’s line, “a compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he has the biggest piece”.

He added: “Wise words with some applicability to the Brexit negotiations, although I try to discourage talk of ‘cake’ amongst my colleagues.”

Emphasising the point at the end of the speech, Hammond said the purpose of the Brexit negotiations should be “an outcome [where] we can be smart enough to work out how to continue collaborating together, to keep the cake expanding, for the benefit of all”.

Hammond’s outspoken comments underscore the chancellor’s revived position in the cabinet, having widely been expected to be moved aside had Theresa May won a convincing majority in June.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-odds-with-david-davis-over-brexit-transition

 

[James]

We're going to have a Lame Duck leadership for the foreseeable future. Not a functional government but not a massively dysfunctional one either. Just not much of one.

 

[Robert]

Hasn't the centre ground shown signs of shifting with the rise of Corbyn, Sanders and the success of other leftist parties across Europe ?

Since the 1980s, the Westminster commentariat consensus has been that if a progressive is to be credible - they must accept privatisation, they must accept deregulation, they must accept low taxes on the rich and for multinational corporations, be unquestioning of globalisation and accept an interventionist foreign policy in the Middle East.

I don't see what's "centrist" about any of those positions that so-called moderates like Tony Blair and George Osborne espouse, who I'd argue are to the right of Ted Heath and Harold MacMillan.

Corbyn's 2017 Manifesto, denounced as a return to the 1970s, was to the right of Labour's 1983 Manifesto. Unlike 1983, there were no calls for unilateral nuclear disarmament, a Five Year Plan, nationalisation of the commanding heights of the economy or reimposition of import controls.

David Owen, whom we both agree is no rabid Marxist, described the manifesto as a fairly mainstream social democratic platform "streets" ahead of 1983. I agree Corbyn needs to allay the fears of small business and centrist voters, but this concept of the centre ground has become so nebulous and ill-defined that even the proponents of it have lost track of what it is. This isn't the 1990s, if mainstream centrism was still a winning formula then Hillary Clinton would've won last November.

Clinton is in some ways to the right of Trump.

To win, Labour will have to get millions more votes. Where will they come from? Blair was able to woo them, but plenty of centrists will vote Tory just to stop Corbyn.

 

[ShadabFakhar]

Clinton is in some ways to the right of Trump.

To win, Labour will have to get millions more votes. Where will they come from? Blair was able to woo them, but plenty of centrists will vote Tory just to stop Corbyn.

You're right about the centrists, but don't underestimate Labour's campaign team. They were forgotten about last election and the Tories lost their majority.

People will get sick of the name-calling and the outrageous statements from Tory MPs that got worse during yesterday's PMQs, it seems as though they haven't learnt their lesson

 

[s28]

This mantra from Robert and the now discredited Blairite/Liberals/Centrists has been heard before

We were told before the General Election by the 'experts' that 1/3 of Labour voters from 2015 would not vote for Corbyn... i.e. 9m votes going down to 6m

In actual fact Labour got 12.8m votes

 

[Yossarian]

Fifth columnists like Chuka Umunna and his Blairite buddies are still intent on destroying the Labour Party from within if they can't take it over themselves. As was seen by his antics yesterday.

 

[s28]

Maiden speech from one of the young new Corbynista MPs

the future is bright

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dUk8E2U4pgc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Markhor]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No10: PM told Cabinet their leaks + "briefings + counter briefings" showed some of them were "not taking their responsibilities seriously"</p>— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) <a href="https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/887269714019463173">July 18, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Cabinet is fighting like cats in a sack over Brexit. PM would sack ministers but after the election has been stripped of credibility and authority !

 

[Robert]

This mantra from Robert and the now discredited Blairite/Liberals/Centrists has been heard before

We were told before the General Election by the 'experts' that 1/3 of Labour voters from 2015 would not vote for Corbyn... i.e. 9m votes going down to 6m

In actual fact Labour got 12.8m votes

I think the rise of the alt-left media has resulted in a different pool of Labour voters.

 

[s28]

Momentum hit the spot with this one...

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Finally someone said it &#55357;&#56834; <a href="https://t.co/FoPN9jmIbZ">pic.twitter.com/FoPN9jmIbZ</a></p>— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/890512963123245057">27 July 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Doesn't look like there will be another election in 2017 now. As long as Maybot can get through the Tory conference she'll be fine for another 12-18 months before one of her colleagues sticks the knife in.

 

[James]

I am predicting Corbyn v Rees-Mogg in 2018, with a narrow Labour win.

 

[s28]

Doesn't look like there will be another election in 2017 now. As long as Maybot can get through the Tory conference she'll be fine for another 12-18 months before one of her colleagues sticks the knife in.

Superinjunctions are very expensive. I don't think the Tories can keep a lid on all their scandals for that long.

 

[Markhor]

Boris Johnson is behaving deplorably. He's trying to goad Theresa May into sacking him so he can become a Brexit martyr and win the Tory party leadership.

His allies have been briefing against chancellor Philip Hammond who's advocating a softer Brexit with a longer transition period.

The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, fuelled suspicion that he wants to replace May as leader when he used an interview in the Sun to make further provocative demands over Brexit, including an insistence that the transition period announced by the prime minister last “not a day longer” than two years.

Johnson’s remarks appeared to break a cabinet agreement that the precise duration of transition be left open. The foreign secretary also appeared to suggest that there could be no role for the European court of justice during a transition period, which he knows Brussels will refuse to accept.

But Theresa May can't sack him because her position is so weak post-election.

 

[Markhor]

The mood at the party conferences couldn't be more different.

Rather than curse the demonic energy of the Corbynistas, I left Brighton wishing that my side could arouse half of their enthusiasm.

That's the right wing Fraser Nelsom writing in the Telegraph.

 

[Yossarian]

Looks like my predictions in the OP are going to be out by a few months. Although, technically speaking, if there was an election before the end of December (and there's still time for that), the prediction will still hold.

I however fervently hope that there isn't a General Election until late 2018/ early 2019 at the earliest. By then it would have (finally) hit home to the Brexiteers as to how ignorant and thick headed they were believing all the lies told to them by the Tories.

If there was an GE now, Labour will win with Corbyn as PM. But Labour will be lumbered with all mess the Tories have created, along with the disaster of Brexit yet to come. And Labour would then get all the blame (just as Gordon Brown got all the blame for the effects on the UK of the world's financial crisis, and which Tories have been feasting on by blaming Labour for it all).

 

[James]

And Labour would then get all the blame (just as Gordon Brown got all the blame for the effects on the UK of the world's financial crisis, and which Tories have been feasting on by blaming Labour for it all).

Just a note on this last bit. Our domestic financial situation is very much the fault of New Labour. On their second day in power, Brown's opening gambit as Chancellor was to deregulate the Bank of England, which led to chaos amongst the retail banks for the years that followed (RBS, HBos, Co-Op, Northern Rock etc). Not to mention Blair's Middle Eastern crusades into Iraq and Afghanistan - one internationally agreed upon as illegal, the other not strictly criminal but equally pointless - which cost the government tens of billions of pounds to fund.

 

[Markhor]

Watching the Tory Party Conference.

A protester (a Tory activist ?) seems to have handed PM May a P45 during her speech ! Where was the security ?

Also PM May seems to be coughing up a storm.

 

[Markhor]

Apparently it was the prankster Lee Nelson who pulled that P45 stunt.

Meanwhile May's coughing (seems to have got better now) bevame so bad the chancellor Philip Hammond literally hands her a strepsil ! Tories literally having to applaud repeatedly to give her time to recover.

I've never seen anything like this at a Party Conference. [MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION] [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] [MENTION=7898]Gabbar Singh[/MENTION] [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION]

 

[Markhor]

From Sam Coates of the Times:

Last Thursday May defended free market capitalism and attacked intervention over Uber. Now pushing market intervention on energy prices ???

When Ed Miliband proposed an energy price cap it was blasted by the Tory press as a return to 70s style Marxism.

 

[shaz619]

[MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION] what's going on May is trending on twitter, did she botch another promo

 

[Markhor]

[MENTION=53290]Markhor[/MENTION] what's going on May is trending on twitter, did she botch another promo

It was unlike anything I've ever seen. Watch this:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Theresa May’s speech today was derailed by a collapsing sign, a deeply unfortunate cough, and a major security breach &#55357;&#56881; <a href="https://t.co/3Wls3qFfr1">pic.twitter.com/3Wls3qFfr1</a></p>— BuzzFeed News (@BuzzFeedNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/915565840048771072?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 4, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Markhor]

[MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION] - Amber Rudd LITERALLY had to tell Boris Johnson to get up and applaud whilst the coughing fit was going on to buy Theresa May time:

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Amber Rudd telling Boris Johnson to stand for May <a href="https://t.co/VGYeb5CroR">pic.twitter.com/VGYeb5CroR</a></p>— Mollie Goodfellow (@hansmollman) <a href="https://twitter.com/hansmollman/status/915536471418900480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 4, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[James]

Surely TM is on borrowed time. This is all getting a bit sad now. I thought she would see the ship through until March 2019 when we leave Europe, and then resign; but even that is starting to look somewhat unlikely now.

Who will take over - Boris, Rees-Mogg, Rudd?

 

[Yossarian]

Surely TM is on borrowed time. This is all getting a bit sad now. I thought she would see the ship through until March 2019 when we leave Europe, and then resign; but even that is starting to look somewhat unlikely now.

Who will take over - Boris, Rees-Mogg, Rudd?

If Rudd takes over, and she loses her seat as an MP at the next election (she won by just 300 votes at the last election, after how many recounts?), imagine the Prime Minister losing their seat! That's why she won't be allowed to take over by the Tories.

Rees-Mogg? The hard core Tories will love him. But can you imagine the average Joe Bloggs voting for Rees-Mogg? A guaranteed land slide victory for Labour at the next GE.

Boris will be loved by the aforementioned Joe Bloggs. But do we really want a Prime Minister who starts singing colonial-era Rudyard Kipling poems when on a state visit as the Foreign Secretary to a country formerly under colonial rule? Or, as Foreign Secretary, who says that rich developers could move in and build a tourist destination once they “clear the dead bodies away”?

 

[s28]

Whoever takes over I'd expect Labour to be in power for a generation.

It's tough making political predictions as a week is a long time in politics but there is a fundamental shift in British social attitudes now. People have had enough. Those who thought all their troubles would end with Brexit realising they've been sold a pup. The Tories are completely bereft of ideas on how to tackle all the problems the Country faces. The only coherent plan is the programme offered by Corbyn.

 

[James]

She's being widely tipped to go. Even the right-wing media have turned on her. There is every chance that she will now do a caretaker job til the end of the year whilst the Tory members elect someone else to start in January. Whoever replaces her will probably want to take on Corbyn in an election some time in the next 2 years or so.

 

[Robert]

Looks like my predictions in the OP are going to be out by a few months. Although, technically speaking, if there was an election before the end of December (and there's still time for that), the prediction will still hold.

I however fervently hope that there isn't a General Election until late 2018/ early 2019 at the earliest. By then it would have (finally) hit home to the Brexiteers as to how ignorant and thick headed they were believing all the lies told to them by the Tories.

If there was an GE now, Labour will win with Corbyn as PM. But Labour will be lumbered with all mess the Tories have created, along with the disaster of Brexit yet to come. And Labour would then get all the blame (just as Gordon Brown got all the blame for the effects on the UK of the world's financial crisis, and which Tories have been feasting on by blaming Labour for it all).

I doubt it. Miliband had a three point poll lead in 2015 and lost because of Scotland.

There won't be a general election until after Brexit. There cannot be until 2022 unless a 2/3 Commons majority votes for it. Can you see the Tories voting for it? Of course they won't. They will limp along to see if the wind changes.

Unfortunately for them, Brexit will be a shambles, and they will lose their reputation for economic competence.

Perhaps they wil unite behind another leader by that time and look like an attractive option to more people. I suggest Ruth Davidson, but she seems reluctant to come down from Holyrood.

The only party with a credible economic plan is the Lib Dems who continue to flatline. Older voters simply don't trust this Labour front bench, which is the worst in terms of experience and intellect that I can remember.

Labour won't win outright unless they get Scotland back, and they are in third place behind the Tories. They might need the SNP or Lib Dems in Coalition.

 

[s28]

The Fixed Term Parliament Act does mean CON Govt is protected for 5 years but they can only govern with help of DUP confidence and supply arrangement. DUP are anti-austerity. So it is a very unstable partnership anyway.

I expect full court press from Labour and the Union movement to make the lame duck Tory Government capitulate on several policies and together with Brexit negotiations/slowdown the Tories may be forced into giving up and calling a General Election which they will lose

 

[Yossarian]

The Fixed Term Parliament Act does mean CON Govt is protected for 5 years but they can only govern with help of DUP confidence and supply arrangement. DUP are anti-austerity. So it is a very unstable partnership anyway.

I expect full court press from Labour and the Union movement to make the lame duck Tory Government capitulate on several policies and together with Brexit negotiations/slowdown the Tories may be forced into giving up and calling a General Election which they will lose

If the DUP withdraw their support and there is a motion of no confidence in the Tory govt. then Corbyn will be asked to see if he can form a government. He won't be able to since he would also need the support of the DUP to get a majority, and he won't get that.The Queen can then dissolve Parliament resulting in a General Election.

 

[shaz619]

It was unlike anything I've ever seen. Watch this:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Theresa May’s speech today was derailed by a collapsing sign, a deeply unfortunate cough, and a major security breach �� <a href="https://t.co/3Wls3qFfr1">pic.twitter.com/3Wls3qFfr1</a></p>— BuzzFeed News (@BuzzFeedNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/915565840048771072?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 4, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

What a trainwreck, this is our prime minister I don't agree with her politics but she's embarrassing the entire country.

 

[James]

According to Grant Shapps (Tory MP) the backbench rebellion is on. 30 MPs at least.

 

[s28]

Really odd to go off half cocked like that. Looks like a move to scare May into going rather than actually doing anything. They need 47/48 MPs to launch challenge.

Suggested alternatives Boris Johnson or Rees-Mogg or David Davis are all Hard Brexiters so will alienate the more centrist/Cameron wing Remainers/Soft Brexiters

 

[Yossarian]

Really odd to go off half cocked like that. Looks like a move to scare May into going rather than actually doing anything. They need 47/48 MPs to launch challenge.

Technically yes. However, even 10 or so openly demanding her removal means that there's many more who won't stick their necks out but would like to see her gone. And the job of the members of the 1922 Committee is to keep their ears to the ground and gauge the general feeling amongst Tory MP's. As soon as they feel that there is a groundswell against Mrs. May, they will have a quiet word in her ear and she will be gone.

Suggested alternatives Boris Johnson or Rees-Mogg or David Davis are all Hard Brexiters so will alienate the more centrist/Cameron wing Remainers/Soft Brexiters

The Tories are caught between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea. Hang on to Mrs. and the Tories keep going downhill. Get rid of her and likely end up with someone very divisive amongst the Tories themselves, and who takes the Tories downhill even faster.

 

[s28]

It's glorious.

Since the General Election in the 70 odd Council By-Elections that have taken place Labour Vote at c.40% and Cons sub 30%

A new General Election will see landslide for Corbyn. Longer Tories delay worse it will be for them on two counts

1. As Heseltine observed they are losing voters at 2% a year
2. Brexit uncertainty will tank economy / UKIPers will see that actually migration isn't the panacea

 

[Yossarian]

It's glorious.

Since the General Election in the 70 odd Council By-Elections that have taken place Labour Vote at c.40% and Cons sub 30%

A new General Election will see landslide for Corbyn. Longer Tories delay worse it will be for them on two counts

1. As Heseltine observed they are losing voters at 2% a year
2. Brexit uncertainty will tank economy / UKIPers will see that actually migration isn't the panacea

That's why it will be such a bad idea for Labour if there was a GE now, or before the end of 2018, since they will get all the blame for the disaster that the Brexit negotiations will prove Brexit to be, since they will be blamed for negotiating badly if they came into power now and took over the negotiations

The best option will be that the Tories keep going, keep hemorrhaging voters, keep ripping themselves apart.

In the meantime the Brexiteers finally realise the ramifications of Brexit, realise that a 'soft Brexit' basically means the status quo but without Britain having a seat at the EU table, and "no deal is better than a bad deal" is not an option due to the fact that there are so many areas (eg Aviation, City of London & Passporting for banks..) which can't be jettisoned without an agreement.

The Brexiteers fail to understand that "no deal" also means no transition period. Meaning chaos at ports such as Dover, no passporting for banks, all those industries working on a just-in-time basis with suppliers from around Europe completely bug**red, .... etc. from the 1st April 2019.

I'm betting that from about the end of 2018, even many of the hard core Tory Brexiteers will be looking for a way to stay in the EU!

 

[Robert]

According to Grant Shapps (Tory MP) the backbench rebellion is on. 30 MPs at least.

Their problem is that there is no 'sanity candidate'. There is a discredited BoJo, or the curious caricature Rees-Mogg who will alarm centrists. Ruth Davidson is the answer but she won't come south.

 

[Robert]

If the DUP withdraw their support and there is a motion of no confidence in the Tory govt. then Corbyn will be asked to see if he can form a government. He won't be able to since he would also need the support of the DUP to get a majority, and he won't get that.The Queen can then dissolve Parliament resulting in a General Election.

He won't have enough MPs unless leading an alliance of the DUP, SNP plus Lib Dems, and they won't side with Brexit Labour.