We can very well live with the ICC. The ICC is an anachronistic organization and it has outlived its usefulness.
How long do you want India to continue in the ICC where countries contributing 1% or 2% have the same voting power as India which contributes 70%?
The only economically rational outcome is for India to dump ICC and take complete control of the money that is being produced in India. Otherwise money will keep flowing out of India.
When India plays a foreign country, that country will obviously share the money generated. But we don't need ICC sucking money out, the colonial days are long past.
Your theory of 70% is not only delusional, it has become hilarious actually. CoA is run by businessman, so are ICC - that's why they are not such deluded. BCCI people as well - that's why they are sending team, would have done so even for lower amount.
I was a bit busy last week, therefore couldn't follow every thread & the drama around this issue, but I have done my ball-park calculations, which actually indicates that Mr. Manohar was trying a BIG favor for BCCI - he was trying to do even bigger ($400mn+) favor, but BCCI once declining that, couldn't accept it - it would have been shameless even for BCCI standard, who are trying to bully out to eat up those amount ICC allocated for associates. And, they are doing dirty politics with smaller boards – “not cutting your pie, but help me to rob that amount from Associates, I’ll make it sweeter for you later”.
Now, coming to that 70% myth, let me try to bust it - my hunch is, there is a very little risk for ICC, that too after 2023, when the next bidding starts, considering the then situation of cricket economy. For this period, ICC could have offered 6.5% (or whatever, like every other Boards) & still BCCI would have accepted. Or other way -
their boycott actually would have benefited other boards (ICC). This is where, Mr. Manohor actually did a favor to BCCI - let me explain how.
How does ICC makes money from it’s events?
1. Broadcasting rights (live telecast & streams)
2. Endorsements (ground, kits, media & others)
3. Gate - Ticket sale (shared with the host)
Now, from the revenue sharing - let's make it simple by considering total ICC revenue to be $100 for this period. In BCCI proposed model, around $35 (35%) will go to BCCI -
so, first clarification, as long as ICC earns more than $65, without IND (BCCI) participating, it's actually a net positive for other boards.
Coming to your claim of 70% contribution from India & without IND (BCCI), ICC will lose that entire amount ($70) - that's absolute rubbish myth. Even if we consider the null hypothesis that - without IND participating, no sponsors will come from IND & no NR Indian will watch/attend the games.
Why - again I am going back to the 3 sources of ICC's earning & let's see how much they are vulnerable - CONSIDERING null hypothesis : No Indian will have any interest without IND playing ICC events.
1. Broadcasting right is sold to Star Sports for a minimum number of matches, who'll pay ICC for the product as producer, then they'll make money by re-selling the feed to different country/channels & advertisement minutes - ICC won't lose a single penny even if IND withdraws, as long as they have a contract clause of guaranteed Indian participation. For example, PAK was almost out of CT in qualification stages, that could have been the case with IND as well, still can happen in 2021 event, therefore such contracts is never done on participation basis (ICC Can’t guarantee who’ll qualify).
Broadcasters & event owners work together to maximize money - if IND fails to qualify, Star Sports will definitely lose money in terms of reselling the feed (& ad minutes). To cover this phenomenon, ICC has restructured the WC format, to ensure major teams (not only IND), doesn't miss out early & every high profile duet is confirmed to be played.
NOW, if BCCI (IND) doesn't participate, it might have a negative consequence for 2023+ bid, the base price should go down for broadcasting rights. But, for this term, no changes in ICC end as far as broadcasting money is concerned. I AM SURE, Star Sports have covered their investment with proper insurance, so, in case of BCCI's withdrawal, they actually won't lose much either - it's the Insurance Company, which might get into ugly legal battles. But, as I said, if there is a chance of BCCI withdrawing Indian team from ICC events, ICC (& it's existing member) might get lower value for 2023-2031 period broadcasting rights - might, because that's also dependent of Cricket economy that time, but since 70% cricket viewer comes from India (or Indian), it's almost certain that broadcasters will start bidding from laser base.
2. The endorsement & other media interest - online, social media, grounds, kits & others are event specific, therefore subject to revenue loss, even this term (2015-2023) period, it'll suffer. BUT, not the way you are trying to portrait that with IND 100%, without 0%. Even, if I take a complete isolation of Indian community (both local & NRI), still endorsement money won't go to nil. For this CT, I don’t think it has any risk, because the rights are already sold – unless, ICC has sold it with a precondition that they’ll ensure Indian participation.
Coming back to No. 2, your claim is - 70% revenue comes from Indian companies (market) & that'll be ZERO without IND, which is delusional & ignorance. I can tell from my little bit of professional experience of strategy behind media buying or event management in such cases. Every event’s sponsorship (media, ground, shirt, online ..) goes to open bidding & the contract is given to the best bidder (not necessarily highest bidder), subject to some quality/quantity considerations. Now, since Indian market is larger, Indian brands are out-bidding any other bids, but it’s not that they are the only bidder, or every other bidder are from IND. Since, IND is playing, so Sahara or Reliance or Bharti ...... is bidding say $25 for the endorsement rights, but there are bids of $24, $23 .....$1 as well – not necessarily only from IND, it can come even from Nepal or Afghanistan. Might not be as rich as Indian Brand/Corporate bids, but I am sure the 2nd & 3rd bids are at least 80% of the winning bid. Besides, bids are often placed as a joint venture to compete with bigger brands (to counter ambush marketing), which does reduce the gap from top & 2nd bidder. It’s foolish to think that, if no Indian bid comes, Corporates of other countries won’t place their proposal.
For broadcasting rights as well – whatever Star has bidden (or will bid in 2023) to win the deal, there are definitely close bids from SKY, BBC, BT, Channel 9, SuperSports ……. even Gazi Tv also; it’ll be there in 2023 as well. Depending on cricket popularity, SKY/BT/Channel 9 can out bid Star as well – but, that doesn’t mean every money is coming from UK or AUS only – in any case, major money will come from IND, simply because of the volume - BUT, that's secondary money, which'll determine the initial bid size. ICC's revenue isn't dependent on where the feed is sold, once the primary deal is done.
Another factor in this equation is - Conglomerates operate on global basis - Tata or Sahara has investment in other cricket playing countries, therefore not necessarily, they'll withdraw from bidding in case of Indian isolation. Samsung sponsors Chelsea or IKEA sponsored Real – I can give hundreds of such examples, where global brads are beyond boundary. But, for the sake of argument, I take your logic - they'll say, "Mera Bharat Mahan - no India, no Indian bill board on ground" – so, some money will be lost (less earning) from this source.
3. The gate money - on field attendance. Yes, this one will suffer instantly - for those matches IND was supposed to play, that's if I take that, expat Indian will stay away from ICC events & return their ticket for the Indian matches. However, in such cases, it doesn't happen that, tickets remain unsold - what organizers (ICC)'ll have to do is lower the ticket price for an elasticity. I am sure, ICC (It’s event manager) has done their calculation of how much ticket price has to go down, in case of Indian boycott, for a 98%+ sell-out.
Somewhere I saw, but can't recall - average split from revenue source for such ICC events (actually every such global events) is 60% broadcast, 30% endorsement & 10% gate. These figures more or less are steady for cricket everywhere & I actually have seen in my professional career similar split (I used to do reverse calculation to allocate my budget, event/channel wise, based on TG, TRP & other indexes – but let’s leave it there). Say, in IND, ground attendance is high compared to UK, but unit price for ticket is much lower. Similarly, in IND there are more audience & channels, but per minute price is lower - therefore it's around same 60%+30%+10%. In our example it's $60, $30 & $10 earning for ICC.
Coming to the financials – let’s see how much ICC (eventually it’s members) is vulnerable, in case of BCCI boycott, for the period of 2015-2023
1. Broadcasting: 0%. Star Sports is legally bound to pay $60 for this period regardless of whoever qualifies or boycotts. However, as I said, if India's boycott is long-term, may be ICC won't get $60 from 2023-2031 periods, depending on the cricket economy of other markets that time.
2. Endorsements: Around 40% lower bid (My hunch is 25%, but I give 15% buffer). That's around $18 earning, instead of $30
3. Gate : Even considering 3rd generation Indian, who last time visited India with a British passport in last millennium won't turn out for any match in entire CT (not only matches that were involved IND), the price elasticity, I take 30% price drop to keep the ground at par in terms of attendance - that's $3 loss.
For a ball park figure, for 2015-23 period, without IND, ICC's possible revenue should stand around $60+$18+$7 = $85. This is subject to the mix of revenue source (60%, 30%, 10%) – for your comfort, I am making it 50%, 40% & 10% (giving more weight-age to 2nd one, which is most vulnerable), that earning stands at $40+$24+$7 = $71. Considering IND not participating, HENCE NOT GETTING ANY SHARE, that's straight $35 save (they are demanding 35%) - this gives me a buffer of around $20 ($6 in 2nd scenario), in net positive gain, in case of BCCI withdrawal. Therefore, as I said earlier that Manohar is actually offering BCCI an undue share. [MENTION=132916]Junaids[/MENTION] telling every time regarding handouts, is quite right.
Add to that the hosting right of 2023 WC - I am 100% sure that, even if the split is equal with ZIMBok board, BCCI won't withdraw participation.
The first part was direct financial impact. Let's think about hypothetical scenario of 8 months IPL & IND (BCCI) Spoiling world cricket by hiring top players from every country. I don't see that one feasible either, if all other boards remain strong. Let me explain this one with a null hypothesis of 1.3bn Indian singing Mera Bharat Mahan & enjoying IPL for 8 months. AND, this is considering that every bilateral series with IND is on & BCCI still can bully smaller boards with promise of short tours.
- Once, BCCI starts 8 months IPL with obnoxious amount, basically they are hiring players out of central contract. This means, non-Indian players are restricted only to IPL & no other franchise leagues (as long as other boards are strong), or at least not in leagues arranged by ECB, CA, CSAF & PCB. This time, it’s a trade-off between IPL vs, at least 3 other high earning Leagues combined + central contracts for respective boards. Hypothetically, let’s take that IPL is covering that financial loss for Jo Root or Steve Smith – now, we’ll have to calculate, what’ll be IPL out flow of cash expenses in that case & what should be their earning (inflow) to remain in business.
- BCCI doesn't allow it's players to other leagues & don't call PAK players, therefore, major 4 boards will block their central contracted players from IPL. In fact, regardless of BCCI withdrawal from ICC events or not, ECB won’t allow it’s central contracted players to participate in IPL, if Indian players are not allowed in their mega league – simple reason is, ECB (& their broadcaster) can’t milk Indian market, if there is no Indian players. Now, ECB is allowing Roots & Morgans & Stokes to play in IPL unconditionally, because they don’t have a bargain chip – add ECB T20 League in the mix, with central contract, it’s not one sided any more. Make it 8 months IPL, limited International cricket & no other major Franchise League – forget it, even PCB, CSAF & CA will have bargaining chips. Players playing for IPL window now, because their boards are allowing – if the stand point comes either IPL or every other contracts, I am sure players will do their maths to figure out what should be annual salary at IPL to cover the career.
- Even, if I consider a 20 team IPL, which in terms of cricket quality won't be far better than Faisal Bank T20, but I take that Indian's will watch that IPL as well with same passion for the gana-bazana & Mera Bharat Mahan feeling - it's not financially viable to ensure 100+ foreigners enough money to cover for a career for 2 decades without other leagues & central contracts. It'll work for some West Indians, Zimboks, Kiwis, Lankas, may be BD players - but won’t with top AUS, ENG, PAK & SAF players, for the reason I have mentioned above. However, I am not sure if every of 20 IPL teams plays 2/3 BD/ZIMBok players out of 4 foreigners & half the rest squad with Ranji stars, how much Gana-bazana would keep Indian passion high from that Mera Bharat Mahan feeling.
The bottom line is, BCCI can't run IPL successfully (financially) without at least support from 4 other boards with domestic cricket resources only - ECB, CA, PCB & USAF. Add BCB in that (Simple reason - 2/3 BD players playing in IPL now, it can go to 10/12, but these players are putting every egg in one basket of IPL, which is on annual contract) - 20 team IPL will be worthy watching for 9 months indeed.
[MENTION=132916]Junaids[/MENTION], [MENTION=139981]HitWicket[/MENTION], [MENTION=132373]Convict[/MENTION], [MENTION=132954]Aman[/MENTION]
Guys, I have deliberately avoided tagging any Indian, BD, PAK or Lankan posters here for obvious reasons (BUT, THEY ARE WELCOME TO PUT THEIR VIEWS on this) - I would appreciate, if you go through this & put your thoughts.
I might be wrong with the financials as well – BUT, my stand is, being Indian, Mr. Manohar had given a big corridor for BCCI to steal undue money (& 2023 WC hosting rights), they actually would have sent team for an equal share as well.