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Our chances of topping the group & facing Bangladesh in the semi-final?

Mamoon

Mamoon

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So with Bangladesh winning today, they need England to beat Australia, which will mean that they will face the winners of Group B.

So, it seems like the team that tops Group B will have a 90% chance of playing the final. In spite of the upsets over the three days, I really don't fancy Bangladesh beating India/South Africa/Pakistan/Sri Lanka in the semifinal.

As things stand, either India or South Africa will finish top, but what is the equation for Pakistan to top the group?

I haven't done my calculations, but my understanding is that if India vs South Africa turns out to be a very tight game and if we absolutely smash Sri Lanka, we could end up topping the group and will get to face Bangladesh in the semifinal.

So, what do exactly need to do - and hope that things go our way in the other game - to top the group?
 
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The exact equation will only really be known after Sunday's game. Hopefully a narrow victory for either SA or Ind or even better a washout and we smash SL on Monday to go top. :afridi
 
Oh man you're way too hopeful considering your support for Pakistan team recently..
The inner Pakistani awaken??
 
Very hard for Pak to win by a margin of 120 runs which is round about what they need to top the group provided Ind vs Sa is a closeeeeee encounter.

Thats why pray for an Indo SA washout.
 
Actually I am not concerned that Much.


We are a number 8 ranked team so If we Win vs SL InshaAllah than even if we lose Semifinal we will have an honorable exit with us taking some positives with Us. Won't be a mean achievement as number 8 ranked team.


If we than reach the final and win it, it would be GOLD.


Not bothered about whichever team comes our way.
 
Sports_Psychologist said:
Oh man you're way too hopeful considering your support for Pakistan team recently..
The inner Pakistani awaken??
Click to expand...

As I said yesterday, I am slowly getting the WT20 2009 vibes from this tournament. A lot of things seem to be going our way.
 
Cool down.. even with Bagladesh winning today if Australia wins tomorrow against England, Bangladesh will not make it to semis.

But boy if there is a India Pak final once again.. wow that should be the best thing ever
 
Yeah in case of washout, even a close win over SL will do.

Ind-SA washout > SA win by a narrow margin > India win by narrow margin is how it stands for our prospects for topping the group.

But it's too early to hope for it. Result of three matches need to go in our favour (even the margin of victories should be according to our desires in case of two).
 
Sane.Cricket.Fan said:
Cool down.. even with Bagladesh winning today if Australia wins tomorrow against England, Bangladesh will not make it to semis.

But boy if there is a India Pak final once again.. wow that should be the best thing ever
Click to expand...

Read the OP again.
 
The real challenge is to qualify for the semi-final.

English team is a serial choker and Bangladesh has a habit of choking against Pakistan in pressure games. Pakistan can beat these teams. However, if Pakistan has to face Australia in the SF, then we are doomed.
 
I think all the 3 minnows have had their share of success the last 3 days so now two of them can start packing their bags:)
 
Everyone forgetting that Pakistan first has to beat a team which beat India lol some of the posts here are hilarious.
 
The_Odd_One said:
The real challenge is to qualify for the semi-final.

English team is a serial choker and Bangladesh has a habit of choking against Pakistan in pressure games. Pakistan can beat these teams. However, if Pakistan has to face Australia in the SF, then we are doomed.
Click to expand...

I personally have no hope of qualifying for the final unless we play Bangladesh.
 
Madplayer said:
Everyone forgetting that Pakistan first has to beat a team which beat India lol some of the posts here are hilarious.
Click to expand...

All these ifs and buts have been taken into consideration already.
 
After today, I have no doubt that Bangladesh is actually a better team than Pakistan. What an incredible chase! They have better batsmen, better fielders and ~~bowlers. However, I'd always choose to play Bangladesh over England. But hey, beggars can't be choosers. Don't think we can top the group.
 
Syed1 said:
Let's fire up that rain dance thread then


:yk3 :yk3
Click to expand...

India ensured that pak doesn't end up at top of the group in any situation, that was some phainty, eh? The after effects of that phainty can still be heard :srini Very little chance of rain on sunday :yk
 
You guys can't top the group without India qualifying for the semis, what a sweet irnoy that pak bros will be indirectly praying for India's entry in to semis if they pray for a washout of India's game :yk
 
Mamoon said:
All these ifs and buts have been taken into consideration already.
Click to expand...

I know. Wasnt talking about the OP. Generally on PP these days posters arent even considering SL as competition.
 
Need SA and India to be rained off and for Pakistan to beat Sri Lanka.

If that happens then Pakistan will top the group.
 
ToeCrusher2 said:
India ensured that pak doesn't end up at top of the group in any situation, that was some phainty, eh? The after effects of that phainty can still be heard :srini Very little chance of rain on sunday :yk
Click to expand...

And what happened after that phainty... you managed to pick up just one wicket defending 320 :))) :))) :))) :yk :yk :yk


That is some epic level phainti..
 
Syed1 said:
And what happened after that phainty... you managed to pick up just one wicket defending 320 :))) :))) :))) :yk :yk :yk


That is some epic level phainti..
Click to expand...

Yeah we lost to lankas, but that loss didn't affect our position on the table, whereas the phainty India gave to pak kept pak at the bottom of the table even after a good win against saffers, I am just talking about the long lasting affects of India-Pak game :srini, no doubt lankans owned us yesterday
 
Mamoon said:
So with Bangladesh winning today, they need England to beat Australia, which will mean that they will face the winners of Group B.

So, it seems like the team that tops Group B will have a 90% chance of playing the final. In spite of the upsets over the three days, I really don't fancy Bangladesh beating India/South Africa/Pakistan/Sri Lanka in the semifinal.

As things stand, either India or South Africa will finish top, but what is the equation for Pakistan to top the group?

I haven't done my calculations, but my understanding is that if India vs South Africa turns out to be a very tight game and if we absolutely smash Sri Lanka, we could end up topping the group and will get to face Bangladesh in the semifinal.

So, what do exactly need to do - and hope that things go our way in the other game - to top the group?
Click to expand...

The SA IND game has to be washed out
We must win vs Lanka
 
Well no chance of rain.

Australia should win tomorrow anyways and then I'd much rather face England.
 
Well, looks like even 200 run victory in a full 50 over game won't be enough for us to topple either or SA's or India's current run rate. Both of them have one big victory and a relatively narrow defeat. And we have one huge loss and a close win.

Rain on Sunday is the only realistic option.
 
Mamoon said:
As I said yesterday, I am slowly getting the WT20 2009 vibes from this tournament. A lot of things seem to be going our way.
Click to expand...

Mamoon bhai weren't you getting similar vibes before the India game as well :yk #JustKiddin

On Topic : When we Inshallah win the game against SL, most probably our match would be against the topper of Group A which will not be Bangladesh unfortunately :(
 
Just a caution. If Pakistan do qualify for SF and meet Bdesh ,given the way they are performing if BAD do manage to beat Pakistan in SF....You do know how Badesh fans will float and gloat and remind that victory for decades.
 
IF Australia win tomorrow I would much rather face England in the semis, despite their amazing team
 
As India have better NRR than South Africa, the latter has to win by a small margin and then Pakistan beat Sri Lanka with a good margin. Very much possible. But if India beats South Africa even by a whisker, Pakistan will have to trounce Sri Lanka with lots of overs to spare/winning by 150 runs. So it's in Pakistan's best interest if India lose their next game to face Bangladesh in the semis.

Edit : Just checked the points table. There isn't much difference between run rates of SA and India. It's only 0.272. Don't know how much that translates in overs/runs.
 
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Madplayer said:
Everyone forgetting that Pakistan first has to beat a team which beat India lol some of the posts here are hilarious.
Click to expand...

SL are not going to play that well again.

Its easy to bat second. You kno whow much to score and the pitch seems to ease up a lot considering it is already a flat bed to begin with.

Pak should bowl first, limit lanka to under 275 and then knock of those runs as batting 2nd is easy it appears.
 
If you look at history, everytinme Indian wins a major tournament, Pakistan wins similar one soon after.
Example : India won a ICC tournament in 1985 (Benson and Hedges) . Pakistan followed suit in 1987 (Nehru cup)
India won in WCup in 1983 and Pakistan followed the example in 1992
India won T20 WC in 2007 and Pakistan followed the example in 2009.
So is it possible that India CT2013 win...will be followed by Pakistan CT win in 2017.

Just a thought. :)))
 
mp812rediff said:
If you look at history, everytinme Indian wins a major tournament, Pakistan wins similar one soon after.
Example : India won a ICC tournament in 1985 (Benson and Hedges) . Pakistan followed suit in 1987 (Nehru cup)
India won in WCup in 1983 and Pakistan followed the example in 1992
India won T20 WC in 2007 and Pakistan followed the example in 2009.
So is it possible that India CT2013 win...will be followed by Pakistan CT win in 2017.

Just a thought. :)))
Click to expand...

2011 world cup :yk2
 
mp812rediff said:
If you look at history, everytinme Indian wins a major tournament, Pakistan wins similar one soon after.
Example : India won a ICC tournament in 1985 (Benson and Hedges) . Pakistan followed suit in 1987 (Nehru cup)
India won in WCup in 1983 and Pakistan followed the example in 1992
India won T20 WC in 2007 and Pakistan followed the example in 2009.
So is it possible that India CT2013 win...will be followed by Pakistan CT win in 2017.

Just a thought. :)))
Click to expand...

1993 and 1992 fits into your definition of "soon after"? That's interesting.
 
Don't want rain to spoil this tournament and anyway aussies will win tommorow
 
English August said:
1993 and 1992 fits into your definition of "soon after"? That's interesting.
Click to expand...

I said 1983 not 1993.. perhaps you forgot to wear reading glasses :)))

Anyway

Mate , I was just saying soon after. Considering after 1983 there was just one world cup in between in 1987 which Aus won , in terms of World cup scheduling every 4 years, it can qualify as soon after.
Look at positive..dont be pessimist.
India won WC2011 ...then just like 1987 WC Australia before 1992...so did Aus win in 2015...so fill in the blanks WC 2019 winner can be = _______________
Its called forecasting based on past data and trend. It is also called optimism.
 
Mamoon said:
So with Bangladesh winning today, they need England to beat Australia, which will mean that they will face the winners of Group B.

So, it seems like the team that tops Group B will have a 90% chance of playing the final. In spite of the upsets over the three days, I really don't fancy Bangladesh beating India/South Africa/Pakistan/Sri Lanka in the semifinal.

As things stand, either India or South Africa will finish top, but what is the equation for Pakistan to top the group?

I haven't done my calculations, but my understanding is that if India vs South Africa turns out to be a very tight game and if we absolutely smash Sri Lanka, we could end up topping the group and will get to face Bangladesh in the semifinal.

So, what do exactly need to do - and hope that things go our way in the other game - to top the group?
Click to expand...

1. First, Poms need to kick Aussies out, or rain Gods can wash out Oval, so that we are in.

2. Easiest way is IND - SAF wash out, IND qualifies with better NRR, but on 3 points. PAK beats SRL

3. Tougher way is, one of IND-SAF wins, for 4 points; PAK crashes SRL to go above NRR.
 
MMHS said:
1. First, Poms need to kick Aussies out, or rain Gods can wash out Oval, so that we are in.

2. Easiest way is IND - SAF wash out, IND qualifies with better NRR, but on 3 points. PAK beats SRL

3. Tougher way is, one of IND-SAF wins, for 4 points; PAK crashes SRL to go above NRR.
Click to expand...

Seems very, very unlikely, but the "tougher way" looks the most probable scenario. Very low chance of a washout, but India vs SA should be a nail-biter.
 
Pak topping the group and facing bangladesh will be taken out of the equation tomorrow when Aus beats england..
 
If Aussies win does that mean they advance automatically or will it come down to NRR between Aus and BD?
 
Mamoon said:
So with Bangladesh winning today, they need England to beat Australia, which will mean that they will face the winners of Group B.

So, it seems like the team that tops Group B will have a 90% chance of playing the final. In spite of the upsets over the three days, I really don't fancy Bangladesh beating India/South Africa/Pakistan/Sri Lanka in the semifinal.

As things stand, either India or South Africa will finish top, but what is the equation for Pakistan to top the group?

I haven't done my calculations, but my understanding is that if India vs South Africa turns out to be a very tight game and if we absolutely smash Sri Lanka, we could end up topping the group and will get to face Bangladesh in the semifinal.

So, what do exactly need to do - and hope that things go our way in the other game - to top the group?
Click to expand...

Only if IND/SA game is a washout and we win against SRILANKA, otherwise, impossible unless we totally smash them up by 8,9 wickets and South Africa wins against India by a small margin.

Bangladesh too will only qualify if Australia looses tomorrow.
 
Syed1 said:
If Aussies win does that mean they advance automatically or will it come down to NRR between Aus and BD?
Click to expand...

If Aussies win then England and Australia both qualify since England already is at 4 points (a point ahead) from Bangladesh and Australia with, already 2 points, would have 4 after the game. The only factor then would be on who becomes #1 and #2 between Eng and Aus based on RR.

If Australia However lose the game then England and Bangladesh qualify for the Semis with England the group topper and Bangladesh No.2

From our side the equation is as simple as it gets. Defeat your opponents and move on to the Semis.....
 
Mamoon said:
Seems very, very unlikely, but the "tougher way" looks the most probable scenario. Very low chance of a washout, but India vs SA should be a nail-biter.
Click to expand...

Ideally, if SAF beats IND marginally, say by 5 balls or <10 runs, then their NRR will go down - PAK probably'll need to beat Lanka by 60+ runs or 10 overs at hand. India's NRR is higher than SAF, so if the results alter; same equation for PAK should be around 85+ runs or 15 overs.

Things are a bit complicated for that 2 DWL results, otherwise eeuation would have been more favourable to PAK.

If PAK really wants to run into BD (provided Poms kick Aussies out), best way is to bowl first & someone should kick Amir's a$$ to pitch it up & close to batsmen - in similar wicket like today, Lankans might get rolled out for <170
 
Yaar this has been best ICC event in decades. Partly because of rain effecting results and also because of teams like BD, SL and Pak producing shock results. Very, very exciting.
 
ENG is group champs for sure. Order of precedence is -

0. Total points (default)

In case of tie -


1. Count of wins - ENG has 2, BD 1; Aussies can max have 1, but they financial she's 2nd for 4 points

2. NRR

3. Head to Head

In Group A, only No. 1 can be applicable if Poms lose.

In Group B, only No. 3 is applicable, if both matches are washed out.

In case of one wash out, 0 & 3 applicable

In case of no wash out, default qualifier (2 teams with 4 points)
 
Let's make it simple: England is the #1 team of their group no matter what. If we qualify, there's like a 95% chance we do so as our group's #2 since the forecast calls for very little rain for all the matches.

If we win, we play England next.


Also, lol ToeCrusher2 took the time to diligently register for this site just so that he could troll everyone....I estimate his age to be approximately 15.....Any other guesses?
 
SA-IND game getting washout is the best option Pakistan have to play BD in semifinals.
 
There's a chance of rain on the 12th so these if's and but's can go kiss the part where sun doesn't shines.
 
Assuming we win against SL. Here's the semis:

Eng vs Pak

Aus/Ban vs Ind/SA

If Aus beats Eng: Eng is still #1 because tie breaker goes to most wins and Eng would end up with 2 and Aus with 1

Only way we play Aus is if Ind vs SA is rained out and we win ours. (But rain is not likely to appear)....Allah ka shukar! (because Aus vs Pak rightfully terrifies all the Pak supporters here)
 
Eng vs Aus in Edgbaston on Sat---0% precipitation predicted
Ind vs SA in London on Sun---10%precipitation predicted
Pak vs SL in Cardiff on Mon---less than 10%precipitation predicted

We should be good, at least in theory
 
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MMHS said:
Ideally, if SAF beats IND marginally, say by 5 balls or <10 runs, then their NRR will go down - PAK probably'll need to beat Lanka by 60+ runs or 10 overs at hand. India's NRR is higher than SAF, so if the results alter; same equation for PAK should be around 85+ runs or 15 overs.
Click to expand...

Neither of those four victory margins will make Pakistan's NRR even positive (in a full 50 over game), let alone it getting better than Ind's or SA's.
 
If BD get there the opposition needs to be respected. Anyhow I don't think Pakistan fans should worry about who we face once we're in the semis
 
Stallion__ said:
Neither of those four victory margins will make Pakistan's NRR even positive (in a full 50 over game), let alone it getting better than Ind's or SA's.
Click to expand...

I didn't calculate - I was explaining him, what's the relative easier proposition between IND win & SAF win.

NRR calculation isn't rocket science - can easily figure out what would be target, in context of other match result.

You didn't understand what NRR is, hence posting. Let me explain you - and I am doing it from a mall on mobile, so don't argue for the decimals.

SAF's NRR is +1, after 2 matches, so to keep it at per (+1), they'll need to win by around 50 runs margin. Lower than that, their NRR will go down. For IND with NRR of +1.25, they'll need to win by 63 runs to keep it at per. In case of chase, overs will be calculated based on target.

In a tight win, either side will have a drop of positive NRR, which will determine PAK's target - that'll always be easier in case of SAF's win.
 
MMHS said:
I didn't calculate - I was explaining him, what's the relative easier proposition between IND win & SAF win.

NRR calculation isn't rocket science - can easily figure out what would be target, in context of other match result.

You didn't understand what NRR is, hence posting. Let me explain you - and I am doing it from a mall on mobile, so don't argue for the decimals.

SAF's NRR is +1, after 2 matches, so to keep it at per (+1), they'll need to win by around 50 runs margin. Lower than that, their NRR will go down. For IND with NRR of +1.25, they'll need to win by 63 runs to keep it at per. In case of chase, overs will be calculated based on target.

In a tight win, either side will have a drop of positive NRR, which will determine PAK's target - that'll always be easier in case of SAF's win.
Click to expand...

You are assuming that Pak's previous two matches won't have any effect on their NRR.

Being euphemistic, I will only say that redo the calculations you stated above after returning from mall. You will get the answer.
 
No I want Pakistan vs England semi final I'm sure Pakistan will beat England
 
India -SA match is not going to get washed out. Weather is fine for Sunday in London.

In any case just worry about Monday and focus on winning that match rather than Worrying about semi-Final scenarios.

Sri Lanka match will be a tough one and their confidence will be sky high following their emphatic win over India.
 
If Australia vs England is a washout, then England is #1 and Bangladesh is #2.

Australia would be knocked out because they would have 0 wins and Bangladesh would have 1 win
 
According to the weather it will not rain on Sunday at all, so probably best not to hope for rain. I dont think we will top the rankings because players are too slow batting bar Malik, Zaman
 
England have nothing to play for in the last game. I'd back Aus to win against Eng qualify for Semis.
 
mp812rediff said:
If you look at history, everytinme Indian wins a major tournament, Pakistan wins similar one soon after.
Example : India won a ICC tournament in 1985 (Benson and Hedges) . Pakistan followed suit in 1987 (Nehru cup)
India won in WCup in 1983 and Pakistan followed the example in 1992
India won T20 WC in 2007 and Pakistan followed the example in 2009.
So is it possible that India CT2013 win...will be followed by Pakistan CT win in 2017.

Just a thought. :)))
Click to expand...

This very reason I was hopeful of us winning the last World Cup down under but then it wasn't to be. On topic , It will be one of ur greatest triumphs if we manage to pull this of and win this champions trophy, the only ICC trophy we don't have in our drawer as yet.
 
troodon said:
SL are not going to play that well again.

Its easy to bat second. You kno whow much to score and the pitch seems to ease up a lot considering it is already a flat bed to begin with.

Pak should bowl first, limit lanka to under 275 and then knock of those runs as batting 2nd is easy it appears.
Click to expand...

Have absolutely zero confidence in Pakistan chasing anything over 220. Pak should bat first and try to score over 300. Preferably 320. Think the bowling is able enough to defend that.
 
I don't mind facing England in the semis.
I will bite ur hand of right now for it
 
Mamoon said:
So with Bangladesh winning today, they need England to beat Australia, which will mean that they will face the winners of Group B.

So, it seems like the team that tops Group B will have a 90% chance of playing the final. In spite of the upsets over the three days, I really don't fancy Bangladesh beating India/South Africa/Pakistan/Sri Lanka in the semifinal.

As things stand, either India or South Africa will finish top, but what is the equation for Pakistan to top the group?

I haven't done my calculations, but my understanding is that if India vs South Africa turns out to be a very tight game and if we absolutely smash Sri Lanka, we could end up topping the group and will get to face Bangladesh in the semifinal.

So, what do exactly need to do - and hope that things go our way in the other game - to top the group?
Click to expand...

Yes if SAF vs India is washed out and we win - we will top the group.

Personally - I don't care that much.

All that we should focus on is to beat SL and qualify for the semi's. Then just take it one game at a time from there. It will after all be just two more wins once we reach the SF.

England is certainly beatable like we beat them in the 5th ODI at Cardiff. They have improved vastly as a team but we still stand a chance. We have not played them in an ICC tournament since the opening game of the 2009 World T20 so lets see how both of us stand up to that pressure.
 
God dammit, you guys hyping me up for this game on Monday. The fact that there's a chance Pakistan could go to the semi final with Azhar, Hafeez and Shehzad. Well the latter being taken out it still amazes me man.
 
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