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[PICTURES/VIDEOS] Indian elections (2024) Discussion Thread

Which political party will win the upcoming general elections in India in 2024?

  • Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)

    Votes: 21 87.5%

  • Indian National Congress (INC)

    Votes: 3 12.5%

  • Aam Adami Party (AAP)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Communist Party (CP)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • National People's Party (NPP)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Some other regional party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    24
^ Yes, a young guy recording himself voting for BJP multiple times and uploading it in social media has nothing to do with opposition's saajish is very believable :ROFLMAO:
 
Bhaag Viru Bhaag said:
@deltexas will avoid this place for a while. He’s still trying to differentiate between Feroze Khan and Feroze Gandhi. Soon, he might even call Rahul Gandhi "Fardeen Khan." 😆 :inti
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Gave you the links. Congress and co whitewashed and stole Gandhi's surname. Why don't you comment on the Ghandy name? No comments no words lol ! 😂
And i am here don't worry. Will see if all you pappubhakts are here on june 9th. Dont runaway when Congress loses and pappu ghandy will be giving a loser's speech after running away from amethi
 
deltexas said:
Gave you the links. Congress and co whitewashed and stole Gandhi's surname. Why don't you comment on the Ghandy name? No comments no words lol ! 😂
And i am here don't worry. Will see if all you pappubhakts are here on june 9th. Dont runaway when Congress loses and pappu ghandy will be giving a loser's speech after running away from amethi
Click to expand...
It looks like you've become forgetful, just like Ghajini Modi. Go back and read where I asked about Rahul Khan. You came back with Feroze Khan, and now you're trying to cover it up by bringing in Ghandy. You didn't say Rahul Ghandy; you said Rahul Khan. Maybe it's time to admit you're a WhatsApp University graduate, as I called you earlier. I can see that you have stopped calling him Rahul Khan now. Hopefully, you will stop embarrassing yourself by bringing this up again and again. :inti
 
Bhaag Viru Bhaag said:
It looks like you've become forgetful, just like Ghajini Modi. Go back and read where I asked about Rahul Khan. You came back with Feroze Khan, and now you're trying to cover it up by bringing in Ghandy. You didn't say Rahul Ghandy; you said Rahul Khan. Maybe it's time to admit you're a WhatsApp University graduate, as I called you earlier. I can see that you have stopped calling him Rahul Khan now. Hopefully, you will stop embarrassing yourself by bringing this up again and again. :inti
Click to expand...
There was a wiki misnomer link that I attached. And also the book Indira- if you cant read it thats not my problem.As i said it's been whitewashed. And I will call him Rahul Khan aka Rahul Ghandy... 😂
 
deltexas said:
There was a wiki misnomer link that I attached. And also the book Indira- if you cant read it thats not my problem.As i said it's been whitewashed. And I will call him Rahul Khan aka Rahul Ghandy... 😂
Click to expand...
Who wrote that book? I just looked over Amazon and plenty of results appeared.
 
deltexas said:
There was a wiki misnomer link that I attached. And also the book Indira- if you cant read it thats not my problem.As i said it's been whitewashed. And I will call him Rahul Khan aka Rahul Ghandy... 😂
Click to expand...
Since you are calling him Rahul Khan again, let me ask where you got the name Rahul Khan from. Hopefully, you can find a source this time. I am waiting, or you could just call him Fardeen Khan, as you seem to be confusing Feroze Khan the actor with Feroze Gandhi the politician. :inti
 
Hitman said:
Who wrote that book? I just looked over Amazon and plenty of results appeared.
Click to expand...
Once you receive the answer, please kindly request the page number where it states that Feroze Gandhi was previously known as Feroze Khan. :inti
 
Bhaag Viru Bhaag said:
Since you are calling him Rahul Khan again, let me ask where you got the name Rahul Khan from. Hopefully, you can find a source this time. I am waiting, or you could just call him Fardeen Khan, as you seem to be confusing Feroze Khan the actor with Feroze Gandhi the politician. :inti
Click to expand...
You got to read my responses again above. Explained in the links. Cant keep repeating it.
Also please respond on the obl thread. Need your expert feedback there - b iui t no you hise here behind he silly YouTube videos and no policy discussion. Come June 4th so many rahul khan pappu Ghandy videos will be madr that we all will upload daily lol - loser pappu. Thats modis legacy- confined the nehru gha6family to the staus of a perpetual loser 😂
 
deltexas said:
It was written by Kathryn Frank - titled Indira
Click to expand...
Got it! It's available. I love reading. Will order it soon. The reviews are good as well. I just hope it's more on facts rather than on unreliable rumors.
 
‘Did God send these?’ — BJP ‘bulldozer rally’ ahead of Yogi’s Sirsa visit invites Congress barbs

Gurugram: To seek votes for its Lok Sabha candidate Ashok Tanwar, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) organised a “bulldozer rally” in Sirsa Sunday — a day ahead of Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath’s scheduled rally in the constituency — stirring controversy in the process.

Tanwar, a former Congress MP, is contesting against Congress’s Kumari Selja, a former Union minister, in Sirsa, which will go to polls on 25 May.

While Selja has termed the “bulldozer rally” an intimidation tactic, a political analyst ThePrint spoke to saw it as an attempt to vitiate the atmosphere by reminding people of the Nuh violence, after which bulldozers were used to raze a number of buildings linked to those from the Muslim community who were suspected to be involved in the violence.

Meanwhile, Mahabir Jaglan, a political analyst from Haryana told ThePrint that “everyone knew that bulldozers were used as a tool of suppression of the Muslims in Uttar Pradesh, and in Haryana this was used to bulldoze properties of the Muslim community in Nuh after the communal violence last year”.

“After the Nuh violence, normalcy has returned in the district and the recent incident, where people from the Meo Muslim community saved pilgrims who were trapped in a tourist bus that caught fire last week, shows that they have left the bitter memories of the violence behind. However, the BJP was trying to refresh those memories,” Jaglan alleged.

Jaglan alleged that the BJP has always tried to use tactics that help the party divide on communal or caste lines to win elections. “PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Ambala and Gohana is testimony to this where he didn’t speak of any of the issues like unemployment, inflation, MSP or farmers’ but he concentrated more on Hindu Muslim and mangalsutra,” he added.​

theprint.in

‘Did God send these?’ — BJP ‘bulldozer rally’ ahead of Yogi’s Sirsa visit invites Congress barbs

Congress's Kumari Selja slams BJP, says those in power think they will intimidate people of Haryana. Political expert sees it as a tactic to 'divide people'.
theprint.in theprint.in
 
sanghis falling to new depths everyday during these elections. Only goes to show how rattled they are!
 
Hope Sirsa residents give a befitting reply to this turncoat, Tanwar who has already changed 4 parties in his short political career.
 

Prashant Kishor predicts how many seats BJP will win in Lok Sabha election 2024: ‘On June 4…’​


Political strategist Prashant Kishor on Tuesday claimed that there is neither significant dissatisfaction with the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party government at the Centre nor a strong demand for an alternative. In an interview with NDTV, the Jan Suraaj Party chief also said Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to guide the BJP to another victory in the Lok Sabha elections 2024, predicting that the saffron party seat count could be close to or even surpass its 2019 tally of 303.

“I think Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same numbers as last election or do slightly better,” NDTV quoted Prashant Kishor as saying.

"We should look at the fundamentals. If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji. There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger," Prashant Kishor added.

Responding to a question on the BJP's 370 seats and the NDA's 400-plus target, Prashant Kishor said, “If the BJP wins 275 seats, its leaders are not going to say that we will not form the government because we had claimed we will win 370. So, we need to see whether they are getting 272, the majority mark. Politics and chatter will continue. Those doing commentary will continue to do so. But I don't see any risk, and NDA seems to be returning to power.”


---
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:ab
 
Human786 said:
@Rajdeep you think the megalomaniac Emperor is indulging in divisive politics & hate mongering as far as minorities go ?
Click to expand...
Emperor? He is democratically elected leader by mandate of people living in India.

Looks like you are confusing India with some neighbouring autocratic nations.

Below are the achievements (among many) of Modi and why he is the best PM & tallest leader Independent India ever had:

  1. CAA and NRC
  2. RERA ACT
  3. Ram Mandir
  4. 3 Cr Homes
  5. 9 Cr Toilets
  6. Scrapping Article 370
  7. Triple Talaq
  8. Low Inflation in last 6 years (Inflation this year can rise due to petrol price)
  9. Terrorism drop
  10. 15 new AIIMS
  11. 35 new Airports
  12. Transgender Act
  13. 1.8 Lakh KM roads
  14. Motor Vehicle Act
  15. Weaponry for forces
  16. 33% drop in India’s arm import
  17. New Education Policy
  18. 7 new IITs, IIMs
  19. Reduced Corporate Tax
  20. PM Kisan for all Farmers
  21. 2nd Largest Solar Power
  22. 2nd Largest steel Producer
  23. 2nd Largest mobile manufacturer
  24. 4th Largest Automotive market
  25. Worlds Largest healthcare - Ayushman Bharat
  26. Privatization of PSU and PSB
  27. Modernization of Railways
  28. Improved ties with all countries.
  29. 4th rank in Foreign exchange reserves

His compitetor is Rahul Gandhi who has yet to win municipal election.

But but but...he is PM candidate bcoz:

1. He is great grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru
2. Grandson of Indira Gandhi


Then you guys have the gall to call others as 'Bhakt'

:ROFLMAO: :shh
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hitman said:
Bro, one genuine question. Did you abhor him this much in 2014? Or has the last 10 years made you abhor this much?
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I did detest him pre 2014 too due to his hollow governance record under HRD parameters in Gujarat and him being obviously overtly communal. However, once he graduated to the power at center, I fully knew how destructive this creature is for the idea of India. And widespread destruction under him over last decade proved me right.
 

Indian government agency spent millions promoting BJP election slogans​

Mumbai, India — In November, as India’s election campaign was beginning to take shape, a catchphrase coined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) started gaining traction.

“Modi ki guarantee” (Modi’s guarantee) was positioned by the governing party as the personal promise of the vastly popular prime minister to Indian voters, as the BJP tried to draw a contrast with the seemingly hodgepodge coalition of opposition parties railing against it. The BJP launched advertisements on Google with that tagline in the third week of November.

But around the same time, another organisation started pumping in millions of rupees into an almost identical-sounding campaign: “Modi sarkar ki guarantee” (Modi government’s guarantee). The videos in that campaign, which would continue for months, often referred simply to “Modi’s guarantee”.

In one such advertisement, aired on February 23, an actor portraying a young entrepreneur reassures a father apprehensive about his son’s career choice by telling him, “Papa, there is Modi’s guarantee. Modi ji has promised that he will make India one of the places with the most unicorn startups.” Towards the end, he confidently asserts that “thanks to Modi’s guarantee, every startup will start in India”.

Only these advertisements were not from the BJP. They were paid for by the Indian taxpayer and were part of a campaign rolled out by the Indian government’s advertising agency, the Central Bureau of Communication (CBC). At least one other campaign, with multiple advertisements unveiled in March, also echoed the wording and look of the BJP’s election slogans.

On March 22, the country’s largest opposition party, the Indian National Congress, filed a complaint with the Election Commission of India (ECI) – the constitutional body overseeing the country’s elections – alleging that these CBC advertisements violated election rules by misusing public funds for the governing party’s campaign.

Now, an Al Jazeera investigation reveals the scale of the CBC’s spending on government advertisements that appear to mimic the BJP’s campaign messages and that, according to critics, raise questions about the ability of non-partisan institutions to ensure a level playing field in the election.

The government’s communication agency spent nearly 387 million rupees ($4.65m) on Google advertisements in just under four months, from when it first started advertising regularly on the online platform in November, until March 15, when it last launched an advertisement. India’s national elections were formally announced on March 15. From that point on, government agencies are barred from any advertisements.

In fact, in these 113 days, the CBC was India’s largest spender on political advertisements on Google, while the BJP stood in second place with 314 million rupees ($3.7m). The CBC spending in this period was 41 percent more than the 275 million rupees ($3.3m) that the primary opposition Congress party had spent in almost six years– between June 2018 and March 15, 2024 – according to Google Ads Transparency data in this period.

And many of the CBC advertisements were part of the campaigns with slogans that independent election transparency activists and the opposition say were too close to the BJP’s promotional messages.

www.aljazeera.com

Indian government spent millions promoting BJP election slogans

The Central Bureau of Communication is meant to promote government plans. Its ads carried Modi’s party’s catchphrases.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
 
"Stop Campaign Speeches That May Divide Society": Poll Body Directs BJP

The Election Commission, criticised over what many called its soft handling of the BJP and its leaders, today read the Riot Act to the ruling party as well as the Opposition for campaigning along the lines of caste, community, language, and religion.

The party in power at the election time has extra responsibility. No unlimited extra space should go to the opposition either, the Commission said.

The BJP has been asked to stop campaign speeches that may divide society.

'India' socio-cultural milieu is an enduring preserve cannot be made a casualty to elections," the Commission said ahead of the last two phases of election. The two big parties are not allowed to weaken the heritage of quality electoral experience of Indian voter, the poll body said.

NDTV
 
Rajdeep said:
Emperor? He is democratically elected leader by mandate of people living in India.

Looks like you are confusing India with some neighbouring autocratic nations.

Below are the achievements (among many) of Modi and why he is the best PM & tallest leader Independent India ever had:

  1. CAA and NRC
  2. RERA ACT
  3. Ram Mandir
  4. 3 Cr Homes
  5. 9 Cr Toilets
  6. Scrapping Article 370
  7. Triple Talaq
  8. Low Inflation in last 6 years (Inflation this year can rise due to petrol price)
  9. Terrorism drop
  10. 15 new AIIMS
  11. 35 new Airports
  12. Transgender Act
  13. 1.8 Lakh KM roads
  14. Motor Vehicle Act
  15. Weaponry for forces
  16. 33% drop in India’s arm import
  17. New Education Policy
  18. 7 new IITs, IIMs
  19. Reduced Corporate Tax
  20. PM Kisan for all Farmers
  21. 2nd Largest Solar Power
  22. 2nd Largest steel Producer
  23. 2nd Largest mobile manufacturer
  24. 4th Largest Automotive market
  25. Worlds Largest healthcare - Ayushman Bharat
  26. Privatization of PSU and PSB
  27. Modernization of Railways
  28. Improved ties with all countries.
  29. 4th rank in Foreign exchange reserves

His compitetor is Rahul Gandhi who has yet to win municipal election.

But but but...he is PM candidate bcoz:

1. He is great grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru
2. Grandson of Indira Gandhi


Then you guys have the gall to call others as 'Bhakt'

:ROFLMAO: :shh
Click to expand...
Is 29 some lucky number or is there some auspicious thing going?

I like rounding off things, so let me add

30. Lowering the collective IQ of Indians and NRIs :dhoni
 
Some people were complaining that Dhruv Rathee didn't comment on Swati Maliwal's controversy. Here you go. :inti

 
Romali_rotti said:
Much rather a Feku than waking up night in the morning :inti
Click to expand...
Here is a new one from feku which you might have missed. :kp

Feku: ho sakta hai meri maa ne mujhe janam diya ho (It's possible that my mother gave birth to me.) :misbah :inti


Pappu Modi 😆

Oscar level acting by him though. :rabada2
 
Bhaag Viru Bhaag said:
Here is a new one from feku which you might have missed. :kp

Feku: ho sakta hai meri maa ne mujhe janam diya ho (It's possible that my mother gave birth to me.) :misbah :inti


Pappu Modi 😆
Click to expand...
I am with you here, I much rather a Puppu that wakes up at night in the morning :misbah :inti

Cpl more weeks to go pseudo, you reckon our Puppu/alliance will be in power? :kp
 
T
Bhaag Viru Bhaag said:
Some people were complaining that Dhruv Rathee didn't comment on Swati Maliwal's controversy. Here you go. :inti

Click to expand...
what u can expect from the person who is on payroll of AAP? As usual he has frivolous justification.

Rathee claimed that maliwal walking ok after the incident… and at the time of lodging police complaint she was purposely limping. The effect of internal injuries not seen immediately, it shown effect after several hours.

During my collage days I was having habit of travelling in Mumbai locals by standing on door footboard. One day my hand was hit by iron pole, but i was feeling ok and told friends not to worry. But the person who was watching told that “now are feeling ok, but watch tomorrow ur hand will pain and swell. Next day my hand was paining and swollen
 
Bhaag Viru Bhaag said:
Here is a new one from feku which you might have missed. :kp

Feku: ho sakta hai meri maa ne mujhe janam diya ho (It's possible that my mother gave birth to me.) :misbah :inti


Pappu Modi 😆

Oscar level acting by him though. :rabada2
Click to expand...
What a drammebaz! Only reason he is sent is to destroy India.
 

'Bibhav Slapped Me 7-8 Times, Dragged Me While Kejriwal Was At Home': Swati Maliwal​


AAP Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal recalled her May 13 encounter with Arvind Kejriwal’s aide Bibhav Kumar and alleged the Delhi chief minister was present at his residence when she was assaulted. Maliwal’s current revelation contradicts the AAP supremo’s statement that he was not present at his residence when the alleged assault took place.

“I went to Kejriwal’s residence on May 13 around 9am. The staff made me sit in the drawing room and told me that Kejriwal would come to meet me there…By that time, Bibhav barged into the room. I told him Arvind ji was coming to meet me, what’s the issue. I said this much and he started beating me…He slapped me seven-eight times. When I tried to push him, he grabbed my legs and pulled me down on the floor. My head banged on the centre table. As I fell on the floor, he started kicking me. I screamed for help but nobody came,” Swati Maliwal said in an interview with news agency ANI.

“I told him that I was on my periods but still he didn’t listen and kept hitting me,” she added.

Maliwal then said when she called the police, Bibhav told her to do “whatever she wants to”.

“I called the police and when he realized that I had called the police, he went out and called the security… They made a 15-second doctored video viral, they tampered with the evidence,” she stated.

While the AAP has called it a conspiracy by the BJP and an attempt to unsettle the party and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, in the middle of the Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party has repeatedly denied the charge, and called AAP “anti-aurat (woman) party”. Earlier, reacting to a section of the AAP calling her a BJP agent, Maliwal had said, they were “questioning her character to save a goon”.

Upon being asked whether Bibhav was instructed to beat her up, the former DCW head said, “It is a matter of investigation whether he acted on his own or whether he was instructed to do so. I am cooperating with the investigation.”

“I am not giving any clean chit to anyone. The fact is I was being beaten up and Arvind Kejriwal was there,” Maliwal added.

www.news18.com

'Bibhav Slapped Me 7-8 Times, Dragged Me While Kejriwal Was At Home': Swati Maliwal - News18

Swati Maliwal's current revelation contradicts Arvind Kejriwal's statement that he was not present at his residence when the alleged assault took place
www.news18.com www.news18.com
 

Campaigning ends for 6th phase of Lok Sabha polls in 58 seats​

Campaigning ended on Thursday for the penultimate phase of Lok Sabha elections in 58 constituencies across six states and two Union territories, including all the seven seats in Delhi. Besides the national capital, polling for the sixth round of the marathon seven-phase elections will be held Saturday in 14 seats in Uttar Pradesh, all 10 seats of Haryana, eight seats each in Bihar and West Bengal, six seats in Odisha, four seats in Jharkhand and one seat in Jammu and Kashmir.

Till now, voting has been completed in 25 states and Union territories and 428 constituencies out of 543. The last phase of polling is scheduled on June 1 and counting of votes will be taken up on June 4.
lok-sabha-elections-2024-live-updates-todays-india-general-elections-lok-sabha-polls-latest-news-bjp-congress-narendra-modi-rahul-gandhi-124052300192_1.html

Source: Business Standard
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1792417896364392850

www.livehindustan.com

Fatehpur Voting: Fifth Phase Voting के बीच वायरल हुआ वीडियो, महिला का गंभीर आरोप

#fatehpur #fifthphasevoting #samajwadiparty #livehindustan #loksabhaelection2024 Fatehpur Voting: Fifth Phase Voting के बीच वायरल हुआ वीडियो महिला का गंभीर आरोप | Samajwadi Party फतेहपुर लोकसभा की जहानाबाद विधानसभा में वोट डालने गई महिला का आरोप है कि जबरदस्ती वोट डलवा दिया गया है. इस वीडियो...
www.livehindustan.com www.livehindustan.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792765546100031536

sabrangindia.in

How BJP is accused of violating 48 Hours-Silence Period even on Poll Day? | SabrangIndia

Voters greeted with BJP’s ads in newspapers and social media on poll day despite rules that no political party or candidate or any other organization or person shall publish any advertisement in the print media on poll day and one day prior to poll day that is “Silence Period”
sabrangindia.in sabrangindia.in

In its updated numbers for the first four phases, ECI reported a net increase of 1.07 crore voters. “That is an average of 28,000 votes per constituency for the 379 that have finished polling, reported The Times of India. This increase, significant in a country where winning margins can be much lower, is far higher in the southern states than in the north and is yet to be explained.



Free and fair elections, eh?
 
Height of frightened sanghis. Even when they are winning this election handsomely they are so insecure that they are resorting to cheating through various methods.
 
The Bald Eagle said:

Campaigning ends for 6th phase of Lok Sabha polls in 58 seats​

Campaigning ended on Thursday for the penultimate phase of Lok Sabha elections in 58 constituencies across six states and two Union territories, including all the seven seats in Delhi. Besides the national capital, polling for the sixth round of the marathon seven-phase elections will be held Saturday in 14 seats in Uttar Pradesh, all 10 seats of Haryana, eight seats each in Bihar and West Bengal, six seats in Odisha, four seats in Jharkhand and one seat in Jammu and Kashmir.

Till now, voting has been completed in 25 states and Union territories and 428 constituencies out of 543. The last phase of polling is scheduled on June 1 and counting of votes will be taken up on June 4.
lok-sabha-elections-2024-live-updates-todays-india-general-elections-lok-sabha-polls-latest-news-bjp-congress-narendra-modi-rahul-gandhi-124052300192_1.html

Source: Business Standard
Click to expand...
Am going to vote tomorrow.
 
Modi’s 400-Seat Dream In Doubt as Opposition Gains Steam

Before India’s marathon election kicked off in April, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was promising to come back to power with an even bigger majority than he won five years ago.

With less than two weeks to go before election results are announced, the picture is looking less certain for the popular leader.

Party insiders, opposition members and analysts who have traveled across the country to speak to voters say there’s little evidence of a “Modi wave” that allowed his Bharatiya Janata Party to sweep the polls in 2019. Then, the BJP won 303 of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha. Along with its allies, the BJP-led coalition had about 351 seats.

Modi targeted more than 400 seats for his coalition this time around, a goal emblazoned on campaign posters and one the prime minister frequently plugged in his campaign speeches. But a notable shift in Modi’s tone after the first phase of voting — where he began using divisive, anti-Muslim language and ramped up attacks against the main opposition group’s welfare policies — fueled speculation the BJP may have been spooked by early voting trends and needed to fire up its support base.

Election rules don’t allow for any result polls to be published during the six weeks of voting, so it’s difficult to know with any certainty whether the BJP’s support has indeed declined. India’s first-past-the-post electoral system means even small margins can decide the winner. Exit polls won’t be published until June 1 with results expected on June 4.

Muddying the waters even further is the fact that both the ruling party and opposition are claiming publicly they have the upper hand. Modi himself told The Economic Times this week that the BJP has already won a majority of the seats in the parliament based on voting in the first five phases of elections so far.

However, behind closed doors a picture is emerging of an opposition alliance that’s slightly more optimistic about their likely gains, and a ruling party that appears to be bracing for some losses. The Indian National Congress, the main opposition group, expects to win between 90-110 seats in total, up from 52 in 2019, according to a senior party leader, who asked not to be identified as the discussions are private. The estimates were based on internal polling, the person said.

Three BJP officials from Uttar Pradesh and Haryana states privately admitted that the party is unlikely to match its 2019 figures, although they still expect to win a majority of the seats in parliament. The officials asked not to be identified in order to speak freely about internal matters.

Nalin Kohli, a spokesman for the BJP, said there’s no reason why the ruling party and its allies won’t significantly increase their results from five years ago given the performance of the Modi government and his leadership. Congress party spokespeople weren’t immediately available to comment when contacted for further information.

Uncertainty about the poll outcome has already seeped into financial markets, with volatility rising in recent weeks. The India VIX Index — a gauge of likely market swings over the next 30 days — more than doubled from a low in April.

Foreigners pulled $3.5 billion from local shares in May, although there are now signs of global funds ending their bearish view. Indian equities hit a record on Thursday after the central bank’s generous dividend to the government and Modi’s comments to The Economic Times of an expected “historic mandate.”

Majority Mark

Political analysts and economists are less optimistic.

Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank, expects the BJP to stay in power, while winning anywhere between 282 to 310 seats nationally. Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist at TS Lombard, was more bearish, saying anecdotal evidence during her recent travels from India’s east to west coast suggests the BJP could possibly fall below the majority mark of 272 seats. With the help of its allies, though, the party will still be able to form the government, she said in a report on May 16.

Reasons for the BJP’s slide in support are varied, according to party officials and analysts. Modi has been in power for a decade and has delivered on several of the BJP’s key pledges, a key one being the building of a temple in honor of the Hindu god Ram on a site where an ancient mosque once stood. The inauguration of the temple in Ayodhya in January fulfilled a key promise made to the BJP’s Hindu nationalist base for decades.

“Anecdotal evidence from our travels on the election trail from India’s east coast to its west suggests that Modi’s popularity has waned somewhat since the Ram temple inauguration in January, when a BJP wave seemed to have swept across India,” Deveshwar said. “Although multiple factors at play in a country as vast as India make the national mood difficult to read, common themes we picked up on the road include the lack of job creation and rising demand for welfare schemes.”

Beyond those, voters’ concerns have been dominated by the high cost of living and caste identity, observers say. The opposition’s heavy focus on improving the welfare of the poor, especially those who belong to the lowest social groups, have resonated with voters, they say.

Modi’s 400-seat target may have been counter-productive, too, since it might have led to complacency in the BJP’s ranks while fueling a belief among lower-caste voters that the BJP will use its parliamentary super-majority to push through changes that reduce affirmative action policies for lower socio-economic groups. Home Minister Amit Shah has consistently denied the party has any such plan, although that hasn’t stopped the opposition from exploiting voters’ anxiety around this.

The shift in momentum was in some evidence in the electorally important state of Uttar Pradesh, considered a stronghold for the BJP after it swept the region with 71 out of 80 seats in 2014 and won 62 in the 2019 elections.

Akhilesh Yadav, leader of the Samajwadi Party, the biggest opposition group in Uttar Pradesh, has been drawing significant crowds to political rallies, where he campaigns alongside alliance members, like the Congress party and the Trinamool Congress. The alliance parties have agreed not to contest seats against each other, allowing them to consolidate the opposition vote against the BJP.

WATCH: How India's Leader Is Preparing for a 1,000-Year Legacy

Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, the face of the Congress party, were due to address a rally together earlier this week in a town in Uttar Pradesh, but were forced to leave after throngs of supporters rushed the stage to see the two leaders, pushing through police barricades.

The two men, relatively young leaders in their 50s, represent change for the voters who are disillusioned with the decade-long rule of 73-year-old Modi. Heading into a third term, the “brand value of Modi isn’t there” and the opposition is putting up a strong fight in Uttar Pradesh, said Sunita Aron, an author of three books on Indian politics, including a biography on Yadav.

“The body language between Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi shows they’re friendly, they share a camaraderie,” said Aron, who was an executive editor for the Hindustan Times in Uttar Pradesh for more than two decades. “If the two leaders are standing on a stage, holding hands, that sends a message to the cadres on the ground that we’re coordinating, we’re working together.”

Uttar Pradesh was once again seen as a walkover for the BJP when the election began, but Aron said there’s now at least 25-30 seats in contention for the opposition.

“The BJP has an edge, but the alliance is giving it a good fight,” she said.

The clamor for change was evident on Tuesday at a rally in the rural town of Bhadohi, in eastern Uttar Pradesh. Flying in on a helicopter that sent dust clouds high up in the air, Yadav was cheered on by more than 8,000 supporters, predominantly young men, waiting in 40-degree heat to catch a glimpse of the leader, campaigning there on behalf of a candidate from the Trinamool Congress.

Yadav told his supporters the alliance will increase government jobs and waive loans for farmers, prompting huge roars from the crowd. In an interview after his speech, he criticized the Modi government for its policies and said the ruling party was losing support because of rising joblessness and inflation. He said the opposition alliance was aligned on its priorities, including improving affirmative action policies for the lowest caste groups.

He predicted the BJP will lose its majority and the opposition will form the government.

“The BJP route to power was through Uttar Pradesh, now they are losing all seats and that will be their end,” Yadav said.


Bloomberg
 
Mr. Manoj Tiwari is confused about the poverty line. This reflects the education level of BJP ministers. 😆 :inti

 
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