Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[PakWarrior]

1. Sialkot (1/5).

2. Gujranwala (3/6 ).

3. Sarghoda (2/5 ).

4.Faisalabad (a whopping 5/10 ).

5. Pakpattan (1/2 ).

6. Sahiwal ( 1/3 ).

7. Multan (3/6 ).

8. Vehari (3/4).

9. Okara (0/4).

10. Sheikhupura (2/4 ).

11. Toba Tek Singh ( 2/3).

12. Jhang (2/3).

We have been naming strong candidates in lot of these constituencies, maybe we can go in further details when i have bit of time.

Based on above estimate, i believe PTI has strong chance of winning around 25 of those seats as we have very strong candidates on quite of few of those constituencies especially Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Jhang, Sheikhupura, Toba Tek Singh, Vehari and Multan.

Thanks a lot Waseem, really appreciate it.

On the whole it's just not good enough. We need 40 out of those 55 seats, 25 won't cut it.

I think PTI are heading for 70 or so seats. Great improvement nevertheless but alot of time was lost during the dharna years when they could have been working on wooing and targeting the ever so precious uneducated yet vital rural Punjab vote bank. Without the dharna we would not have seen this awakening but I still feel it meant they neglected crucial ground work. This should have happened alongside the dharna.

It really is looking like a PML win, albeit not a convincing one. They will win 85 to 90 seats and get a coalition to go over the line.

 

[Syed1]

True that but just symbolic to give someone a chance at highest level who has worked on ground and enjoys good reputation. I agree though, probably more suited for provincial seat.

I guess the logic behind the move is that most people know their local MNA but struggle to name the local MPA so if he becomes a MNA and continues his good work with Fixit he will further bring PTI in the limelight in Karachi

 

[Syed1]

Thanks a lot Waseem, really appreciate it.

On the whole it's just not good enough. We need 40 out of those 55 seats, 25 won't cut it.

I think PTI are heading for 70 or so seats. Great improvement nevertheless but alot of time was lost during the dharna years when they could have been working on wooing and targeting the ever so precious uneducated yet vital rural Punjab vote bank. Without the dharna we would not have seen this awakening but I still feel it meant they neglected crucial ground work. This should have happened alongside the dharna.

It really is looking like a PML win, albeit not a convincing one. They will win 85 to 90 seats and get a coalition to go over the line.

I believe PTI will sit with PPP+MQM+Independents to form government.


Also keep in mind there will be elections for 21 FATA seats in 2019, most of which might go to PTI. So we might have the unusual scenario of the government changing hands in 2019 after the FATA elections if PML-N manages to win just slightly more seats than PTI in 2018

 

[Mian]

I believe PTI will sit with PPP+MQM+Independents to form government.


Also keep in mind there will be elections for 21 FATA seats in 2019, most of which might go to PTI. So we might have the unusual scenario of the government changing hands in 2019 after the FATA elections if PML-N manages to win just slightly more seats than PTI in 2018

Those 21 seats will be added to KP assembly they are not NA seats. Fata after 2023 will have only 6 NA currently its 12 now because they are given double for not having MPA seats

 

[Syed1]

Those 21 seats will be added to KP assembly they are not NA seats. Fata after 2023 will have only 6 NA currently its 12 now because they are given double for not having MPA seats

Oh acha... its dumb to wait till 2023... Should have just held all the elections in 2018 and implement the system from now on

 

[the Great Khan]

Watching those videos just made my blood boil. The Noon voters are really becharay who are being taken for a massive ride. The dihaats are worse. I just cant see how PTI can break the rural vote. They just dont seem to be making much of an effort in the dihaats.

I think 70 seats or anything less will be a big disappointment and I will not be surprised if they do get less votes. The Noon will rig. They just will and there isnt much we can do about it..

 

[hussain.r97]

We need to do a seat by seat prediction here once all the tickets are announced! I think 70 seats is a very conservative estimate, in my opinion, PTI are easily heading for 90+ seats.

 

[Strike!]

Since June 8 is the last date for submitting election nomination, how soon will PTI announce candidates for remaining constituencies.

 

[Syed1]

We need to do a seat by seat prediction here once all the tickets are announced! I think 70 seats is a very conservative estimate, in my opinion, PTI are easily heading for 90+ seats.

Most analysts are predicting 70-85 seats. It'll have to be one heck of a campaign to push that number to the 100+ figure.

 

[Mian]

Since June 8 is the last date for submitting election nomination, how soon will PTI announce candidates for remaining constituencies.

ECP will probably extend the date just like they always do

 

[Mian]

haha according to reports PTI board had denied ticket to nazryati Hamid Khan

 

[Syed1]

haha according to reports PTI board had denied ticket to nazryati Hamid Khan

Yaar if I'm very honest... yeh nazryati brigade jaan ko atak gaye hain.... most of them haven't even worked to build their own reputation and following and make themselves into electable candidates, but they want free pass from IK and PTI just because they have been around for a while. What good is a nazryati if he/she can't even win elections?

 

[Mian]

Yaar if I'm very honest... yeh nazryati brigade jaan ko atak gaye hain.... most of them haven't even worked to build their own reputation and following and make themselves into electable candidates, but they want free pass from IK and PTI just because they have been around for a while. What good is a nazryati if he/she can't even win elections?

This Hamid Khan was missing from last 4 years and just before election he appeared to get vote and started grouping and guess what he want was one of the the safest seat of Lahore jahan PTI ka apna kaafi votebank he.

 

[Mian]

According to reports SMQ is applying for a MPA ticket from a Lahore seat too so this answer our early question about the South Sooba scenario that what happens if PTI somehow gets the majority in Punjab and SMQ becomes CM Punjab.

 

[PakWarrior]

Most analysts are predicting 70-85 seats. It'll have to be one heck of a campaign to push that number to the 100+ figure.

I agree with you Syed.

There are 4 days left for the deadline. 70 seats is not enough. Imran will not form government with PPP or Mqm.

From reading this thread and looking at the number of electables that have joined, I'm now beginning to think that even 65 seats is the most they will win. Even the electables are not sure winners.

I think noon league will easily form a coalition. They will win 85 to 90 seats and form a coalition.

What people are slightly forgetting is the massive vote bank in the many Punjab villages of the constituencies that Waseem and I have mentioned in our previous posts.

We are talking literally 10 to 15 thousand pind voters each (yes each) per 7 to 8 main villages( each constituency) of those mentioned constituencies. Now just do the math. This is what DECIDES who forms goverment. These villages of these constituencies will decide Election 2018. It's these voters that has kept Noon league in government for the past few decades.

Howver there is a slight tinge of change in support of Imran in these villages, not everyone is stupid. Even non educated people in Pakistan are wanting change but Imran should have concentrated on these voters from day one after the 2013 elections. This was not an impossible task.

Now something dramatic has to happen in the next 4 days or Nawaz Sharif's verdict has to come in 4 weeks max and really blast the consciousness of the people.

 

[King-Misbah]

No seats for PTI from Baluchistan?

 

[Mian]

No seats for PTI from Baluchistan?

Unfortunately lot of issues between baloch sardar rind who joined 4 years ago and old pti workers from pashtun areas of balochistan. One confirmed MNA and 2 confirmed MPA from old pti leadership left yesterday due to the influence of sardar over party

 

[King-Misbah]

Unfortunately lot of issues between baloch sardar rind who joined 4 years ago and old pti workers from pashtun areas of balochistan. One confirmed MNA and 2 confirmed MPA from old pti leadership left yesterday due to the influence of sardar over party

Well If the sardar can not win more then 3 seats; he should be shown the door. PTI needs to win!

 

[Mian]

Well If the sardar can not win more then 3 seats; he should be shown the door. PTI needs to win!

He lost his own seat in by elections and this useless sardar from jhal magsi is the president of PTI balochistan. PTI vote bank of balochistan is in pashtun areas and this baloch sardar is ruining it

 

[awan_from_soon]

NA-147 (Sahiwal-I) - mostly comprising of Sahiwal city. PMLN in pole psoition but PTI has doubled its potential votebank from 2013. While N's saw a marginal decrease of 3%.

 

[Mian]

NA-147 (Sahiwal-I) - mostly comprising of Sahiwal city. PMLN in pole psoition but PTI has doubled its potential votebank from 2013. While N's saw a marginal decrease of 3%.

View attachment 82033

Asma Sherazi did a show in Taxila today for Aaaj TV and there was big support for PTI probably more than 60% there it looks like Ghulam Sarwar Khan will win it again.

 

[Mian]

NA-63 Survey (Taxila/Wah). PTI vs PMLN, Historically it was always Ghulam Sarwar Khan (Khattar) vs Ch Nisar (Rajput)

 

[Mian]

According to reports Lahore tickets are announced (not confirmed).

اہور NA امیدوار
123 مہر واجد
124 ولید اقبال
125 یاسمین راشد
126 حماد اظہر
127 جمشید اقبال
128 اعجاز ڈیال
129 علیم خان
130 شفقت محمود
131 عمران خان
132 منشا سندھو
133 اعجاز چوہدری
134 ظہیر کھوکھر
135 کرامت کھوکھر
136 خالد گجر

 

[Mian]

So if the above list is correct that means:

Imran Khan vs Khawaja Saad?

Aleem Khan vs Shahbaz Sharif?

Dr Yasmin Rashid vs Maryam Nawaz?


Ch Sarwar worked really hard in last 2 years to build his consistency in Lahore but it looks like he isn't going for NA seat after getting adjusted in senate.

 

[waqar goraya]

So if the above list is correct that means:

Imran Khan vs Khawaja Saad?

Aleem Khan vs Shahbaz Sharif?

Dr Yasmin Rashid vs Maryam Nawaz?


Ch Sarwar worked really hard in last 2 years to build his consistency in Lahore but it looks like he isn't going for NA seat after getting adjusted in senate.

Last time Shahbaz fought against Mansha Sindhu, that constituency had a lot of rural areas.

 

[Mian]

Last time Shahbaz fought against Mansha Sindhu, that constituency had a lot of rural areas.

I heard Shahbaz is contesting from NA129

 

[waqar goraya]

Most analysts are predicting 70-85 seats. It'll have to be one heck of a campaign to push that number to the 100+ figure.

Last time too PTI won more seats than what analysts gave them. Most of them were giving them 20-22 seats yet despite rigging PTI won around 30. These surveys are mostly done by N league affiliated people who give them an edge. If 75 is prediction then we can easily think about the possibility of 90.

Nevertheless, we were also told last time that the next parliament is going to be hung.

 

[Syed1]

According to reports Lahore tickets are announced (not confirmed).

اہور NA امیدوار
123 مہر واجد
124 ولید اقبال
125 یاسمین راشد
126 حماد اظہر
127 جمشید اقبال
128 اعجاز ڈیال
129 علیم خان
130 شفقت محمود
131 عمران خان
132 منشا سندھو
133 اعجاز چوہدری
134 ظہیر کھوکھر
135 کرامت کھوکھر
136 خالد گجر

How many Lahore seats can PTI win... I'm guessing not more than two or three.

 

[Mian]

How many Lahore seats can PTI win... I'm guessing not more than two or three.

4 at least.

 

[waqar goraya]

I heard Shahbaz is contesting from NA129

So basically there are 3 N league family members contesting from Lahore. Maryam vs Yasmin, Shahbaz vs Aleem, Hamza vs who?

If anybody Aleem can give him a run for his money.

Ch Sarwar could have won Shahdara seat. He was being considered a strong candidate there.

 

[Mian]

According to reports people within PTI fighting for MPA tickets under NA seats from where Imran himself is contesting (anywhere in the country) because that will increase their chances of winning thanks to the wave

 

[Syed1]

4 at least.

Which ones? Imran Khan and Aleem Khan look like they will win, don't know about who else



Edit: Aleem is running against Shahbaz, no way in hell is he winning.

 

[Mian]

So basically there are 3 N league family members contesting from Lahore. Maryam vs Yasmin, Shahbaz vs Aleem, Hamza vs who?

If anybody Aleem can give him a run for his money.

Ch Sarwar could have won Shahdara seat. He was being considered a strong candidate there.

Yea i wanted to see Ch Sarwar contesting too. According to reports Waleed Iqbal vs Hamza is expected and that's gonna be an easy victory for Hamza.

Iqbal ka highly educated pauta clean be he perha likha be hai LUMS ka professor be hai top lawyer be hai but ELECTABLE nae he.

There is a surprise on NA53 too expected from PMLN kia pata yahan se be Maryam lere ya family se koi

 

[waqar goraya]

Mian who replaces Hamid Khan? Imran Khan?

 

[waqar goraya]

Yea i wanted to see Ch Sarwar contesting too. According to reports Waleed Iqbal vs Hamza is expected and that's gonna be an easy victory for Hamza.

Iqbal ka highly educated pauta clean be he perha likha be hai LUMS ka professor be hai top lawyer be hai but ELECTABLE nae he.

There is a surprise on NA53 too expected from PMLN kia pata yahan se be Maryam lere ya family se koi

NA 53 , Asad Umar wali ya Amir Kayani wala?

 

[Mian]

Which ones? Imran Khan and Aleem Khan look like they will win, don't know about who else



Edit: Aleem is running against Shahbaz, no way in hell is he winning.

Shafqat Mehmood the safest seat for PTI (he won in 2013 too).

Karamat Ali Khokhar the guy ended up with 78k votes in 2013 and can win it this time if he can gain more support from beraadri.

Hammad Azhar the young lad ended up with 68k votes in 2013 and is working really hard on ground i am expecting good results from him.

And trust me if someone (other than IK) can beat Hamza or his Abba in Lahore than the name is Aleem Khan. Don't forget how he fought against whole govt machinery in NA122 against Ayaz Sadiq in By Elections. Aleem had to withdraw his name in 2013 GE and only contested by elections.

 

[Mian]

NA 53 , Asad Umar wali ya Amir Kayani wala?

Aamir Kayani wali but reports yehi hen ke Kayani withdraw kergaya he and ab Ali Awan ya Ilyas Meherban ko ticket milega. Yeh seat paqi PTI ki he but PMLN muqabla tough ker skti he isper kisi bere naam ko la ker from family.

 

[Mian]

Mian who replaces Hamid Khan? Imran Khan?

I am not sure but i think NA131 is the old NA125? if that is the case than yea. IK old halqa was NA122 but in new delims its divided into 4/5 other halqas

 

[PakWarrior]

Last time too PTI won more seats than what analysts gave them. Most of them were giving them 20-22 seats yet despite rigging PTI won around 30. These surveys are mostly done by N league affiliated people who give them an edge. If 75 is prediction then we can easily think about the possibility of 90.

Nevertheless, we were also told last time that the next parliament is going to be hung.

As much as I want PTI to win 90 seats, that's unlikely. I even think 75 is being too optimistic.

PTI are heading for 65 seats. 70 seats if things go well on the day.

It's just not good enough and they had ample time to cement 80 to 90 seats. If, as I've repeated several times, they concentrated on the Punjab constituencies (particularly the village areas) mentioned in one of the previous posts.

This relying on KP seats (which they will win again) and a few here and there from Karachi to add to the tally is not going to do anything. Imran's Karachi efforts and his Karachi PTI team might as well have not bothered.

But there is still hope. Alot depends on how things develop in the coming few weeks.

Dharna, which was very significant to put pressure on Noon league was important and I'm glad he did it but it seemed every single PTI member from Imran's circle turned up to it but they forgot to work on vote building during those years.

 

[Mian]

As much as I want PTI to win 90 seats, that's unlikely. I even think 75 is being too optimistic.

PTI are heading for 65 seats. 70 seats if things go well on the day.

It's just not good enough and they had ample time to cement 80 to 90 seats. If, as I've repeated several times, they concentrated on the Punjab constituencies (particularly the village areas) mentioned in one of the previous posts.

This relying on KP seats (which they will win again) and a few here and there from Karachi to add to the tally is not going to do anything. Imran's Karachi efforts and his Karachi PTI team might as well have not bothered.

But there is still hope. Alot depends on how things develop in the coming few weeks.

Dharna, which was very significant to put pressure on Noon league was important and I'm glad he did it but it seemed every single PTI member from Imran's circle turned up to it but they forgot to work on vote building during those years.

Dherna also created lot of awareness and actually helped PTI to be honest.

 

[waqar goraya]

As much as I want PTI to win 90 seats, that's unlikely. I even think 75 is being too optimistic.

PTI are heading for 65 seats. 70 seats if things go well on the day.

It's just not good enough and they had ample time to cement 80 to 90 seats. If, as I've repeated several times, they concentrated on the Punjab constituencies (particularly the village areas) mentioned in one of the previous posts.

This relying on KP seats (which they will win again) and a few here and there from Karachi to add to the tally is not going to do anything. Imran's Karachi efforts and his Karachi PTI team might as well have not bothered.

But there is still hope. Alot depends on how things develop in the coming few weeks.

Dharna, which was very significant to put pressure on Noon league was important and I'm glad he did it but it seemed every single PTI member from Imran's circle turned up to it but they forgot to work on vote building during those years.

All i am saying is that polls all over the world have a margin of 5 percent. And here we are talking about Pakistan. So, if estimates go wrong by 20-30 seats it is should be no surprise.

Almost 50-60 seats are those which are already in PTI's pocket, where the chances of a loss are almost none. From Punjab's 141 seats, majority of them will be fiercely contested, the margin between win and loss is going to be only 5-15k seats for 70-80 percent seats.

It all depends on maximizing your chances with performance on poll day, managing party groupings, distribution of tickets etc

 

[PakWarrior]

I agree with you Mian Bro but Imran thought it would cause a revolution in Pakistan and turn everyone into a PTI supporter and everyone would see the error in their ways for voting for noon league all this time.

In a predominantly educated and less Jaahil and less aloof society it would have led to mass public change but not in Pakistan. This is still a dopey society, particularly in the villages.

But no doubt the dharna has created awareness and even the Jaahil segment of the society is slowly coming to a realization and I see a wonderful Pakistan in the next 5 years or so as even if Noon league win again most of the public will not tolerate their shenanigans anymore.

 

[PakWarrior]

All i am saying is that polls all over the world have a margin of 5 percent. And here we are talking about Pakistan. So, if estimates go wrong by 20-30 seats it is should be no surprise.

Almost 50-60 seats are those which are already in PTI's pocket, where the chances of a loss are almost none. From Punjab's 141 seats, majority of them will be fiercely contested, the margin between win and loss is going to be only 5-15k seats for 70-80 percent seats.

It all depends on maximizing your chances with performance on poll day, managing party groupings, distribution of tickets etc

True, but I still think that Noon league are still strong enough to win those fiercely contested seats. They will try every trick in the book. They are masters of dhaandli plus their strong vote bank will turn up.

 

[Mian]

I agree with you Mian Bro but Imran thought it would cause a revolution in Pakistan and turn everyone into a PTI supporter and everyone would see the error in their ways for voting for noon league all this time.

In a predominantly educated and less Jaahil and less aloof society it would have led to mass public change but not in Pakistan. This is still a dopey society, particularly in the villages.

But no doubt the dharna has created awareness and even the Jaahil segment of the society is slowly coming to a realization and I see a wonderful Pakistan in the next 5 years or so as even if Noon league win again most of the public will not tolerate their shenanigans anymore.

Completely agree with each and every word you said bro there is one more thing than everyone forget is that the use of force by govt against dherna turned those known as soft burgers kids of PTI to battle hardened workers.

 

[PakWarrior]

Completely agree with each and every word you said bro there is one more thing than everyone forget is that the use of force by govt against dherna turned those known as soft burgers kids of PTI to battle hardened workers.

True and I really hope this youth fight tooth and nail to make that difference on election day. Inshallah they will.

 

[waqar goraya]

[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

https://nation.com.pk/04-Jun-2018/pti-finalises-85-na-candidates-of-punjab

These 85 seats are those where PTI has very strong electables. Majority of them have good chances of winning from there, and remaining ones could also give tough time to opponents. That's excluding Lahore and Gujranwala regions. Even if PTI wins only 20 percent of seats from here we will have around 10 seats from here. So, there is a very good possibility that out of 141 Punjab seats PTI could win around 70 seats, if we are being realistic. Then we have KPK and other Pakistan.

So, an estimate of 70 seats is a very strict estimate, this is the worst that PTI should get.

 

[Mian]

All i am saying is that polls all over the world have a margin of 5 percent. And here we are talking about Pakistan. So, if estimates go wrong by 20-30 seats it is should be no surprise.

Almost 50-60 seats are those which are already in PTI's pocket, where the chances of a loss are almost none. From Punjab's 141 seats, majority of them will be fiercely contested, the margin between win and loss is going to be only 5-15k seats for 70-80 percent seats.

It all depends on maximizing your chances with performance on poll day, managing party groupings, distribution of tickets etc

True, but I still think that Noon league are still strong enough to win those fiercely contested seats. They will try every trick in the book. They are masters of dhaandli plus their strong vote bank will turn up.

You guys are missing the trick here. In last election PTI wasn't enjoying electable support in rural Punjab and hardly had any workers with knowledge of polling day science and how to handle goons on polling stations. These electables do politics as a business and doing ti from decades they know all the dirty tricks and they will make sure they are well prepared to win their seat so this time PTI as a party will have to focus mostly on urban seats baaqi rural electables khud dekh lenge unke liay seat jeetna merne jeene ke beraber hote he.

 

[Mian]

[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

https://nation.com.pk/04-Jun-2018/pti-finalises-85-na-candidates-of-punjab

These 85 seats are those where PTI has very strong electables. Majority of them have good chances of winning from there, and remaining ones could also give tough time to opponents. That's excluding Lahore and Gujranwala regions. Even if PTI wins only 20 percent of seats from here we will have around 10 seats from here. So, there is a very good possibility that out of 141 Punjab seats PTI could win around 70 seats, if we are being realistic. Then we have KPK and other Pakistan.

So, an estimate of 70 seats is a very strict estimate, this is the worst that PTI should get.

Can't comment on all but Sardar Ghulam Abbas of Chakwal and Major Tahir of Attock these 2 guys knows each and every trick to win their constituencies. All they needed was a little party votebank in 2013 that was missing because they were Independents and still ended up with big number of votes but now they will win their seats (personal votebank+party votebank).

 

[waqar goraya]

Can't comment on all but Sardar Ghulam Abbas of Chakwal and Major Tahir of Attock these 2 guys knows each and every trick to win their constituencies. All they needed was a little party votebank in 2013 that was missing because they were Independents and still ended up with big number of votes but now they will win their seats (personal votebank+party votebank).

PTI has better electables this time around, and there is also a possibility of PTI government. So, these 2 factors make a huge difference between that 10-15k vote margin.

 

[Strike!]

Accountability court verdict can also swing the decision in PTI's favor.

 

[Bewal Express]

Accountability court verdict can also swing the decision in PTI's favor.

A Noora said to me that to us NS is like a peer and no matter what you say, we will always believe in him. So i short it will have little impact on the vote.

 

[hussain.r97]

A Noora said to me that to us NS is like a peer and no matter what you say, we will always believe in him. So i short it will have little impact on the vote.

Their core support is like that, but they also have a lot of soft supporters who lack awareness.

 

[hussain.r97]

I think people are severely underestimating PTI here. 70 seats is the number of seats PTI are practically confirmed on, and the majority of the remaining seats in Punjab are to be hotly contested due to many factors including electables, people tired of PML-N, PTI being a known quantity now, election reforms, etc.

Also remember that this is not 2013. PTI this time are not an unknown quantity, they are well known and are a serious contender to form government. That alone makes people more likely to vote for them.

 

[Waseem]

Some very interesting posts, i think there are a few things that have changed since last elections:

PMLN
For -
- Reduction in load shedding
- Metro Train and bus projects
- Improved security situation

Against
- Incumbency factor
- Panama scandal
- Khatm e nabuwat issue (Rise of Labbaik party is by no means positive for country but Noon will lose 10% votes in each constituency)
- Attacks against Army and judiciary
- Massive loans and economy
- No real improvement in health and education


PTI
For -
- FAR better candidates
- Reduced risk of rigging (many issues still there but much harder to rig this time in comparison to 2013)
- Positive performance in KPK (Even people in Punjab appreciate Police reforms there)
- Better Awareness about corruption and dharna especially post Panama
- Massive leadership crisis in PMLN

Against
-
- Party infighting, ticket issues and lack of organisation
- Dharna factor (There were positives and negatives and some think it was counter productive)
- Aliens in the party trying to create issues
- Character Assassination of Imran Khan (PMLN's negative propaganda about Imran Khan has created some impact)

 

[hussain.r97]

Most analysts are predicting 70-85 seats. It'll have to be one heck of a campaign to push that number to the 100+ figure.

I think these TV analyst predictions are a bit under, and I think the reason is that they have not really thought about the effect an increased young voting population has had. These analysts still consider PTI as a politically inexperienced party and even base many of their arguments on that point, but the fact is that the younger voters don't care about experience as much as older voters do.

Young voters are going to be absolutely crucial, almost 50% of voters are under 35. PTI need to ensure that young people actually turn out to vote because PTI will very much rely on them to win. Right now in our ground campaign efforts, our main target are non voters, not PML-N, MQM, etc voters. Non voters tend to be young people who don't have the motivation to vote. If PTI can manage to increase voter turnout by even 10%, the effects will be huge.

 

[hussain.r97]

All i am saying is that polls all over the world have a margin of 5 percent. And here we are talking about Pakistan. So, if estimates go wrong by 20-30 seats it is should be no surprise.

Almost 50-60 seats are those which are already in PTI's pocket, where the chances of a loss are almost none. From Punjab's 141 seats, majority of them will be fiercely contested, the margin between win and loss is going to be only 5-15k seats for 70-80 percent seats.

It all depends on maximizing your chances with performance on poll day, managing party groupings, distribution of tickets etc

Good post, I agree with this. I think PTI have 70 seats in their pocket.

The vast majority of all the other seats in Punjab are not PML-N safe seats, they are all going to be swing seats, and winning these almost totally comes down to a well organised effort to bring voters to the polling booths on polling day. The margins in Punjab will be tight, so whoever is able to mobilise the most support will end up coming out on top.

When it comes to KPK, Sindh, and Balochistan, the vast majority of those seats will be decisive wins, except in Karachi. That is why Punjab is so vital.

 

[hussain.r97]

Election 2018: Zardari to contest NA polls after 25 years

ISLAMABAD: Former president Asif Ali Zardari who also heads Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarian (PPP-P), the parliamentary wing of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), would be contesting elections for the National Assembly after 25 years.

Zardari will contest from Benazirabad (Nawabshah), while PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will make his debut in parliamentary politics by contesting from multiple constituencies in the July 25th general elections, according to PPP sources.

PPP’s central election board is in process of deciding tickets to the candidates.

Before he assumed the office of President in September 2008, Zardari had twice been elected to National Assembly and once as Senator. Before marrying former PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto in 1987, he contested the 1985 non-party elections, but lost. Zardari later became an MNA in the 1990 elections for the first time with Benazir serving as leader of the opposition as Nawaz Sharif secured premiership.

The former president was again elected to National Assembly in 1993 and served as minister for investment in Benazir’s cabinet. After this assembly was dissolved in 1997, he was elected to the Upper House.

The PPP is now eying around 60 National Assembly seats in the general elections, with prime focus on Sindh.

The party had 39 directly-elected MNAs from Sindh in the previous assembly and plans to consolidate its position by taking advantage of MQM’s fragmentation. The PPP’s target from Sindh is 45 seats including few from Karachi. On a broader landscape, the PPP has a target of around 10 seats from Punjab, five to seven from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and three from Balochistan.

If the party indeed comes close to its target of around 60 seats, with the addition of reserved seats, it will be in a strong position to negotiate with any of the two mainstream parties – the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz – for a coalition government.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1727881/1-election-2018-zardari-contest-na-polls-25-years/

So PPP are eyeing 60+ seats, including 45 from Sindh, 10 from Punjab, 5-7 from KPK, and 3 from Balochistan.

Don't think it's realistic. They will likely gain seats in Karachi and bump up their Sindh tally by 2-3 seats, but I don't see them winning anything from KPK or Balochistan, while they don't look so strong in Punjab either. They will probably end up with a total of 42-45 directly elected seats.

Whatever the case, the chances of PPP being kingmaker are extremely high and I personally don't see Imran Khan striking a deal with Zardari. It is do or die for PTI, either win 100 seats, or face the choice of choosing between sitting with PPP in government, or letting PPP + PML-N rule the country for another 5 years.

 

[PakWarrior]

What are your plans for July 25th?

If you live in Pakistan I guess you'll be going out to vote?

For those of us living outside of Pakistan what are your plans?

I wish the elections were on a Sunday but I'm taking July 25th and 26th off work I just love the excitement of election day.

What are your plans guys? Would love to hear.

 

[Waseem]

NA 90 Sargodha
PTI 48%
PMLN 42%

Now this is a shock considering PTI had very little support here in 2013 (only 18% votes) and this is purely party vote, any decent candidate can win this seat, Mumtaz Kahlon seems to be preferred candidate from here although PMLN MPA recently joined from there.

 

[PakWarrior]

NA 90 Sargodha
PTI 48%
PMLN 42%

Now this is a shock considering PTI had very little support here in 2013 (only 18% votes) and this is purely party vote, any decent candidate can win this seat, Mumtaz Kahlon seems to be preferred candidate from here although PMLN MPA recently joined from there.

This is a big surprise for me. Clearly this shows that PTI workers must be very active on polling day in such constituencies.

Imran will form government inshallah if these constituencies go in his favour.

 

[PakWarrior]

NA-147 (Sahiwal-I) - mostly comprising of Sahiwal city. PMLN in pole psoition but PTI has doubled its potential votebank from 2013. While N's saw a marginal decrease of 3%.

View attachment 82033

This is a massive development and not be taken lightly. Sahiwal is developing into a powerful city in terms of development and forward thinking educated Pakistanis.

However it has always been a Noon league stronghold but if we can win 2 out of 3 seats here then that would be incredible.

I can more or less confirm that NA 148 Sahiwal is looking like a win for Pml's Chaudry Ashraf.

No need for Habib Akram survey for NA 148 Sahiwal as this is my family constituency and I can confirm that so far the feeling is that of Ashraf winning from many of the villages in this constituency. He has given given pakki sark and upgraded sewerage system in these villages over the last few months and this has won over many of the voters but still there are signs that many are not falling for this and may vote PTI but at the moment NA 148 is a pmln seat on July 25th.

We need PTI to perform incredibly well in Sahiwal, Pakpattan and Okara on July 25th.

 

[Extra_Cover]

I agree with you Mian Bro but Imran thought it would cause a revolution in Pakistan and turn everyone into a PTI supporter and everyone would see the error in their ways for voting for noon league all this time.

In a predominantly educated and less Jaahil and less aloof society it would have led to mass public change but not in Pakistan. This is still a dopey society, particularly in the villages.

But no doubt the dharna has created awareness and even the Jaahil segment of the society is slowly coming to a realization and I see a wonderful Pakistan in the next 5 years or so as even if Noon league win again most of the public will not tolerate their shenanigans anymore.

This!

I completely agree that I can see a better future for Pakistan in next 5 years even if PMLN wins. My best predictions at the moment is that PMLN will win around 80-90 seats and with help of coalition will form the Government. However, I also see within 18 months of elections Shahbaz getting disqualified on corruption charges there is a case against him on corruption done in construction contracts where he uses his Government influence to lowball the bid price and win the contract and then brings in astronomical increase in contract prices to bring effect the corruption.

After Shahbaz gets disqualified in 18 months and Nawaz and Maryam already in prison there will be no future of PMLN. The only person capable to lead PMLN then will be Ch Nisar and I would be happy if he takes over PMLN as he is not a money monger like others.

Overall, in the next 5 years I don't see a future for Nawaz, Shahbaz, Maryam and Zardari. This will be the best period of Pakistan politics since 1990 and for once we could be looking forward to betterment of Pakistan.

 

[Mian]

Even if PPP or PMLN form government they are not be able to repeat what they used to do in past thanks to Imran for educating masses on topics like human development and corruption.

 

[Extra_Cover]

Even if PPP or PMLN form government they are not be able to repeat what they used to do in past thanks to Imran for educating masses on topics like human development and corruption.

Imran is the best thing that has happened to Pakistan politics since 1990. Since the 90s PMLN and PPP have looted the country big time with corruption, fake promises, economic conditions, etc. Everyone can agree on the fact that an average Pakistani's standard of living went downhill since 90s and this is the time when this so called democratic parties PMLN and PPP started its rule so its no coincidence that these two parties have been the biggest cancer to Pakistan for the last 3 decades.

Imran gathered huge support mainly because the masses who suffered at the hands of these corrupt politicians wanted relief. Nawaz and co totally deserve whatever is coming their way for making the life of average Pakistani miserable.

 

[Pakpak]

This!

I completely agree that I can see a better future for Pakistan in next 5 years even if PMLN wins. My best predictions at the moment is that PMLN will win around 80-90 seats and with help of coalition will form the Government. However, I also see within 18 months of elections Shahbaz getting disqualified on corruption charges there is a case against him on corruption done in construction contracts where he uses his Government influence to lowball the bid price and win the contract and then brings in astronomical increase in contract prices to bring effect the corruption.

After Shahbaz gets disqualified in 18 months and Nawaz and Maryam already in prison there will be no future of PMLN. The only person capable to lead PMLN then will be Ch Nisar and I would be happy if he takes over PMLN as he is not a money monger like others.

Overall, in the next 5 years I don't see a future for Nawaz, Shahbaz, Maryam and Zardari. This will be the best period of Pakistan politics since 1990 and for once we could be looking forward to betterment of Pakistan.

There is no way Maryam or Nawaz will see a day in prison. When it looks certain they will be jailed they will be exiled like Altaf Hussain. If there was even a hint of this not being true then Nawaz, Maryam would not stay in Pakistan a day longer.

 

[Extra_Cover]

There is no way Maryam or Nawaz will see a day in prison. When it looks certain they will be jailed they will be exiled like Altaf Hussain. If there was even a hint of this not being true then Nawaz, Maryam would not stay in Pakistan a day longer.

There are hints of backroom deal being struck with another extension request being filed.

If Nawaz and co do not serve prison sentence and treated like criminals this time around then the courts might as well dissolve themselves and declare Pakistan a lawless state.

A person who has paid taxes his entire life with no returns at the end of it has every right to ask question as to where did his tax money go. And after all this surfacing of apartments and corruption the courts still tells the taxpayer that your money was used to buy apartment for Nawaz and family in London but we have let them go for the better future of our country. Then the taxpayer might as well give up on his rights as his rights only exist in a printed legal laws but not in practical Pakistan.

 

[saeedhk]

There is no way Maryam or Nawaz will see a day in prison. When it looks certain they will be jailed they will be exiled like Altaf Hussain. If there was even a hint of this not being true then Nawaz, Maryam would not stay in Pakistan a day longer.

With every passing day, the whole accountability proceeding seems very shady. It has almost been a year since the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif and there is still no hint of a verdict. The case is going nowhere with mindless extensions, illogical recording of statements and summoning of this and that.

Maryam has already decided to contest the elections so she believes nothing will happen to her.I expect the court to hand out a weak verdict without a prison term. Also, I have a gut feeling the court will indefinitely suspend the proceedings against the Sharif family. Democracy is the best revenge.

 

[Mian]

Justice (R) Dost Mohammad is the KP CT CM announced by ECP. He is pro JUIF and anti establishment and don't have any good relations with current CJ. Manzoor Afridi was also the name given by JUIF not PTI

 

[Pakpak]

There are hints of backroom deal being struck with another extension request being filed.

If Nawaz and co do not serve prison sentence and treated like criminals this time around then the courts might as well dissolve themselves and declare Pakistan a lawless state.

A person who has paid taxes his entire life with no returns at the end of it has every right to ask question as to where did his tax money go. And after all this surfacing of apartments and corruption the courts still tells the taxpayer that your money was used to buy apartment for Nawaz and family in London but we have let them go for the better future of our country. Then the taxpayer might as well give up on his rights as his rights only exist in a printed legal laws but not in practical Pakistan.

You're right but this is Pakistan. He will be exiled like AH and that will be that. As long as they are never to return I'd be happy.

 

[Syed1]

"Activist Jibran Nasir to contest upcoming election from Karachi"

https://www.dawn.com/news/1412189/activist-jibran-nasir-to-contest-upcoming-election-from-karachi


Good point:

"Back then, parties in Karachi would contest elections only on the one-point agenda of throwing the MQM out," he said, adding that now that peace has been established in the city, the focus is likely to shift to provision of water and health facilities as well as other basic rights of the people.

 

[Syed1]

You're right but this is Pakistan. He will be exiled like AH and that will be that. As long as they are never to return I'd be happy.

Altaf bhai abhi bhi humaray diloon mein rehtay hain.... manzil nahi rehnuma chahye




The unfortunate part is in Pakistan a "muhajir" will vote for MQM, a Sindhi will vote for PPP and a Punjabi will vote for PML-N. Pathans are probably the only ones who actually vote not based on biradri. I hope if and when PTI wins elections they are able to unite these different biradris into one Pakistan.

 

[Syed1]

Kheecho chamber maaroo burst

haq parast haq parast

 

[PakWarrior]

Thank you to the mods for accepting my request to make this thread sticky.

A few points and the way I see the trial going.

I think that the trial will finish the first week of July and we might get a verdict ten days before the elections. However I feel that things may pick up pace soon and the Avenfield verdict might be given first whilst the other two references carry on for a few weeks. An interesting development today is that we might get closing arguments for Avenfield in the next few days so this will mean the judge can give a verdict on that next week if he wants to.

Nawaz wants the verdict of all three references at the same time. It will also prolong the trial. This request was dismissed today but he will appeal.

Now what will happen if these three crooks are found guilty? They will be handcuffed and sent to Adiala jail, albeit for a few minutes or hours whilst they file their appeals to the supreme court. They will have their appeals dismissed and then this will happen:

Nawaz will request for offical Presidential pardon which he should get in theory as the President is his man BUT there is going to be no deal or exile plan for Nawaz. That is NOT going to happen as the powers that be have decided enough is enough. You will see a MASS EXODUS from noon league by this time and docile qaum or not docile qaum...it is going to have a massive affect and the court can say that the looted wealth has to be brought back, if not Nawaz will begin losing Raiwind Palace, Sugar mills one by one. Rememebr as soon as he is found guilty not only will it mean jail time but also recovery of looted wealth.

Why is Nawaz still in Pakistan and why haven't they fled to the UK? I'll tell you why. It's because had Nawaz done that it would have meant noon league as a party would have been finished by now and Imran might as well have been practising his first speech as prime minister. It would have meant the end of Nawaz as a politician and everything he has built in terms of assets in Pakistan. Also he is confident of presidential pardon. If he fled then everything of his would have been frozen in Pakistan. Game over.

Now remember alot of noon league members have left pmln as they know what's in store.

You will see Nawaz and his immediate clan be put out of action and their chapter will be closed. Shabaz will longer on for a year and he will be done by the courts.

Also remember. Uzair Baloch has a treasure trove of material against Zardari and the ppp clan. Just wait till noon league is cleaned up and then it's operation ppp clean up.

Hope the above gives some clarity to anyone wanting abit of information on a chain of events that are likely to occur.

 

[Extra_Cover]

Well summarised by [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] above.

The writing is on the wall for Nawaz and Maryam and it reads jail term. I also believe that PMLN would win 80-90 seats and with coalition form the next Government and Shahbaz will be the next PM. However, Shahbaz is next in line for disqualification on corruption. The cases on corruption of construction companies is very strong and I expect Shahbaz to be disqualified within 18 months of taking oaths as a PM.

Zardari is next in line and understanding how cunning Zardari is I doubt he would want to step back into Parliament (however I have heard he will contest an election from NA seat though). Once in the near future both Shabaz and Zardari are disqualified and criminal charges brought on them with Nawaz and Maryam already serving sentences then I can see a good future for Pakistan.

The icing on the cake would be the courts order and arrange to bring back Ishaq Dar, Hussain and Hasan Nawaz to serve their sentences in Pakistan. The message should be loud and clear this time on corruption.

 

[Strike!]

Presidential pardon has to be requested by PM. Will the current caretaker judge really do that? I don't think so.

 

[PakWarrior]

Well summarised by [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] above.

The writing is on the wall for Nawaz and Maryam and it reads jail term. I also believe that PMLN would win 80-90 seats and with coalition form the next Government and Shahbaz will be the next PM. However, Shahbaz is next in line for disqualification on corruption. The cases on corruption of construction companies is very strong and I expect Shahbaz to be disqualified within 18 months of taking oaths as a PM.

Zardari is next in line and understanding how cunning Zardari is I doubt he would want to step back into Parliament (however I have heard he will contest an election from NA seat though). Once in the near future both Shabaz and Zardari are disqualified and criminal charges brought on them with Nawaz and Maryam already serving sentences then I can see a good future for Pakistan.

The icing on the cake would be the courts order and arrange to bring back Ishaq Dar, Hussain and Hasan Nawaz to serve their sentences in Pakistan. The message should be loud and clear this time on corruption.

I completely agree with you Bro and that's exactly how I see things going.

The whole of Pakistan's future and stability has now been taken over by our Army, Alhamdulillah. Even if Noon league win with Shabaz as prime minister for a short while before courts take care of him, the future of Pakistan is bright inshallah.

I would even advise Pakistani's living outside of Pakistan to start thinking about a future in which they can come back to Pakistan, to live permanently, if they have the means and if their circumstances allow.

I can give a detailed post on just what's in store for Pakistan in the next 5 to 10 years but I'll save that for another day when I have more time.

I've said it many times that CPEC is a GAME CHANGER in the entire region and Allah has put Pakistan in the most strategically important position in the world, geographically. China would never have invested their future in Pakistan if the Army hadn't given them complete assurances of CPEC's successful implementation.

Just watch in 5 years inshallah and just see where Pakistan will be.

 

[Mian]

"Activist Jibran Nasir to contest upcoming election from Karachi"

https://www.dawn.com/news/1412189/activist-jibran-nasir-to-contest-upcoming-election-from-karachi


Good point:

"Back then, parties in Karachi would contest elections only on the one-point agenda of throwing the MQM out," he said, adding that now that peace has been established in the city, the focus is likely to shift to provision of water and health facilities as well as other basic rights of the people.

Last time Jibran contested election back in 2013 he got 259 votes on Arif Ali seat I think?

 

[Syed1]

Last time Jibran contested election back in 2013 he got 259 votes on Arif Ali seat I think?

Yeah he has no chance

 

[Mian]

Yeah he has no chance

Arif Alvi*

 

[shah_1]

Yeah he has no chance

He will not win but will get more votes

People recognize him a lot more