Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[PakWarrior]

Guys if we can start predictions from today and over the next three days ( noon league will announce 70% candidates tomorrow) that would be great.

But do concentrate on your studies, work and family commitments first and only do when you have free time.

We can also post video links, constituency news and any latest campaign video or news for constituencies so we can get an idea of reports from the ground.

 

[Mian]

NA-247 in Karachi is going to be highly contested.Mustafa Kamal vs Farooq Sattar vs Musharraf vs Arif Alvi v Jibran Nasir.

Nasir chose the worst constituency to run from lol.Only educated and/or socially aware people know him.

He contested on same seat in 2013 and ended up with 259 votes against Dr Alvi (old NA250)

 

[Waseem]

Slightly more readable size! Other one was too big.

Yes we will be in much better position to predict the election results. Need to spend more time on this hopefully next week.

As for this, i think PTI will win the Chitral seat, so much has happened since that tunnel built by Musharaff and PTI has done decent work there so things won't be same as 201 and i don't seen Mushraff contesting elections (somehow he will be blocked).

 

[Arham_PakFan]

He contested on same seat in 2013 and ended up with 259 votes against Dr Alvi (old NA250)

He’s much better known now,but will still lose badly.

 

[Mian]

He’s much better known now,but will still lose badly.

His other buddy is contesting against IK from NA-53 Islamabad. IK apni zamanat zabat kerwayega uske hathon

 

[Waseem]

He contested on same seat in 2013 and ended up with 259 votes against Dr Alvi (old NA250)

I think Jibran Nasir (despite my reservation against his stance on PTM) is a very decent person and i wouldn't be upset if he defeats PTI candidate. I doubt he will win though but the contest on this seat is very interesting (as was in 2013 as well).

Actually i would love to see people like Jibran contesting elections, it's good to see human rights activists taking part in politics and more importantly they get to see how tough it is to contest elections, it's far easier to be arm chair critic so let's see how well they can do on ground.

 

[Waseem]

His other buddy is contesting against IK from NA-53 Islamabad. IK apni zamanat zabat kerwayega uske hathon

Inshallah bulb fuse hoga inka

I would be looking forward to see how these people fight the status quo and how long do they survive in this battle.

They mock and abuse Imran Khan so let's see how they spend 20 years of lives in politics sacrificing family life and luxuries for the country.

 

[Waseem]

Samaa reporting that Sheharyar Afridi has been awarded NA ticket while Shaukat Yousufzai will contest from PK seat in Shangla.

No word on Ali Mohammad Khan yet.

 

[Waseem]

So Waleed Iqbal was given ticket to contest against Hamza Shahbaz, he decided not to contest as it's impossible to defeat Hamza in his strong seat. I hope he can be given some role aur even provincial seat.

Like others i really think we could have done better without this Major Tahir. Amin Aslam and Sohail could've won their elections but now both of the better candidates have to miss out while this arrogant man gets both tickets. I think this is biggest tragedy if Amin aslam misses out, he could be accommodated later but he will lose his own seat where he has his personal votebank which is also a loss.

 

[Waseem]

Waleed Iqbal will contest from PP158 Lahore now so another one gets a ticket.

 

[Mian]

Samaa reporting that Sheharyar Afridi has been awarded NA ticket while Shaukat Yousufzai will contest from PK seat in Shangla.

No word on Ali Mohammad Khan yet.

Waleed Iqbal will contest from PP158 Lahore now so another one gets a ticket.

Good to see party adjusting them but i hope it's not at the cost of decreasing our chances on those seats.

 

[Mian]

Inshallah bulb fuse hoga inka

I would be looking forward to see how these people fight the status quo and how long do they survive in this battle.

They mock and abuse Imran Khan so let's see how they spend 20 years of lives in politics sacrificing family life and luxuries for the country.

Kinaare per khere ho ker samandar ki gehraai k andaza thora he hota he!

 

[Mian]

I think Jibran Nasir (despite my reservation against his stance on PTM) is a very decent person and i wouldn't be upset if he defeats PTI candidate. I doubt he will win though but the contest on this seat is very interesting (as was in 2013 as well).

Actually i would love to see people like Jibran contesting elections, it's good to see human rights activists taking part in politics and more importantly they get to see how tough it is to contest elections, it's far easier to be arm chair critic so let's see how well they can do on ground.

True yeh log baaten to boht kerte hen but jab maidaan main ayenge than they will understand how messed up are the ground realities

 

[Mian]

After awarding NA ticket to Shahyar Afridi and not adjusting Iftikhar Hussain ex Governor KP it looks like PTI chances are really decreased on all seats of Kohat district of KP.

 

[Mian]

Poor Javed hashmi

 

[Mian]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">پہلی بار ایک برادری کا غصہ دیکھنے میں آرہا ہے۔آرائیں برادری پی ٹی آئی یکدم ناراض ہو گئی ہے۔اور انہوں نے گجرانوالہ اور لاہور اضلاع میں اسکے خلاف جانے کا پلان بنا لیا ہے۔چوہدری سرور کو آرائیں برادری میں اپنے حلقوں میں آنے سے منع کر دیا ہے۔</p>— Mubasher Lucman (@mubasherlucman) <a href="https://twitter.com/mubasherlucman/status/1005439576578707459?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">سینیٹر چوہدری محمد سرور نے برادری ازم سے ماورا ہو کر ٹکٹوں کی تقسیم میں اپنا ذمہ دارانہ کردار کیا. اگر کوئی ناراض ہونا چاہتا ہے تو یہ اس کی مرضی ہے. <a href="https://t.co/K34oKl1SK6">https://t.co/K34oKl1SK6</a></p>— Team Senator Sarwar (@TeamSarwar) <a href="https://twitter.com/TeamSarwar/status/1005466658889138177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[MachoKhan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">پہلی بار ایک برادری کا غصہ دیکھنے میں آرہا ہے۔آرائیں برادری پی ٹی آئی یکدم ناراض ہو گئی ہے۔اور انہوں نے گجرانوالہ اور لاہور اضلاع میں اسکے خلاف جانے کا پلان بنا لیا ہے۔چوہدری سرور کو آرائیں برادری میں اپنے حلقوں میں آنے سے منع کر دیا ہے۔</p>— Mubasher Lucman (@mubasherlucman) <a href="https://twitter.com/mubasherlucman/status/1005439576578707459?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">سینیٹر چوہدری محمد سرور نے برادری ازم سے ماورا ہو کر ٹکٹوں کی تقسیم میں اپنا ذمہ دارانہ کردار کیا. اگر کوئی ناراض ہونا چاہتا ہے تو یہ اس کی مرضی ہے. <a href="https://t.co/K34oKl1SK6">https://t.co/K34oKl1SK6</a></p>— Team Senator Sarwar (@TeamSarwar) <a href="https://twitter.com/TeamSarwar/status/1005466658889138177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Mian saab, its in urdu can u please translate it in English

 

[Waseem]

And now news on social media that Ali Mohammad Khan also gets ticket (not official yet).

Ainwain itna shorr machaaya hua tha.

 

[Mian]

Mian saab, its in urdu can u please translate it in English

Arain braadri is not happy with PTI for ignoring their candidates in ticket distribution and they have asked Ch Sarwar to stay away from Arain majority areas of Lahore and Gujranwala. In reply Ch Sarwar said i don't support beradrism and i didn't use beraadri card while sitting in the board meetings to issue party ticket.s

 

[MachoKhan]

Arain braadri is not happy with PTI for ignoring their candidates in ticket distribution and they have asked Ch Sarwar to stay away from Arain majority areas of Lahore and Gujranwala. In reply Ch Sarwar said i don't support beradrism and i didn't use beraadri card while sitting in the board meetings to issue party ticket.s

Thank bro. Also since you have to win Punjab to form government, can you please tell me in which cities is pti strong? Desperate to see khan saab as pm tired of these useless ppl

 

[Pakpak]

Arain braadri is not happy with PTI for ignoring their candidates in ticket distribution and they have asked Ch Sarwar to stay away from Arain majority areas of Lahore and Gujranwala. In reply Ch Sarwar said i don't support beradrism and i didn't use beraadri card while sitting in the board meetings to issue party ticket.s

Your signature always makes me laugh

 

[Mian]

Thank bro. Also since you have to win Punjab to form government, can you please tell me in which cities is pti strong? Desperate to see khan saab as pm tired of these useless ppl

There are still 20 NA tickets left in Punjab brother and lot of groupings within PTI going on after ticket allocation so i will give my analysis based on cites/districts after fa ew days when dust settles and things become more clear. What i can tell you right now is that PTI is in far far better position in Punjab if you compare it with 2013.

 

[Mian]

Your signature always makes me laugh

haha! he is on my ignore list now.

 

[MachoKhan]

How many seats do you have to win in order to form government? Im new to pak elections tbh

 

[WebGuru]

I guess i am a little late to the party...

Most of the tickets are announced and although there are a few issues here and there but overall i will say 90% NA tickets are ok you can't find better available candidates thn them for PTI.

A little disappointed because Malik Amin Aslam isn't given the ticket this time i voted for him on NA and Ijaz Bukhari on PP seat back in 2013. But looking at ground realities i can safely say giving both NA tickets in Attock District to Major Tahir is a smart move we can't win these 2 seats if Tahir Sadiq goes Independent in elections and we will endup with 2013 like situation where PMLN took advantage of divided vote between PTI and Major Group.

Now we just need to accommodate Amin Aslam somewhere and than i can safely say my constituency is going to give you first PTI MNA and first PTI MPA from Punjab : )

NA-55 = Major (R) Tahir Sadiq

PP-01 = Syed Yawar Abbas Bukhari

PP-02 candidate Qazi Ahmed Akbar current PTI President of District Attock is a young and fresh face but he isn't that strong and he is going to contest against the son of Shuja Khanzada (late) a very strong opponent.

So in my consistuency it's going to be:

NA-55:
Major Tahir (2 times District Mayor and father of current District Mayor) vs Sheikh Aftab (5 times MNA on PMLN ticket and multiple times minister)

PP-01:
Syed Yawar Abbas Bukhari (his family won this seat twice, 2002 & 2013) vs Sheikh Salman Sarwar (son of Sheikh Aftab and Salman was PP candidate in 2008, 2013 and NA candidate in 2002 but always lost)

 

[WebGuru]

How many seats do you have to win in order to form government? Im new to pak elections tbh

To win a simple majority, a party would have to take 137 seats out of 272 NA seats otherwise they will need the support of other parties to form a coalition government. To give you an example back in 2008 PPP just won 97 seats, PMLN won 71 and PMLQ won 42 odd seats. So first PPP formed a coalition government with PMLN and some other small parties but after differences they formed coalition government with PMLQ and small parties while PMLN had to sit in opposition.

 

[WebGuru]

According to Hamid Mir as a party PMLN has become mentally defeated it's clearly showing in their statements...

<iframe frameborder="0" width="480" height="270" src="//www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/x6lgwaz" allowfullscreen allow="autoplay"></iframe>

​

 

[Bewal Express]

According to Hamid Mir as a party PMLN has become mentally defeated it's clearly showing in their statements...

<iframe frameborder="0" width="480" height="270" src="//www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/x6lgwaz" allowfullscreen allow="autoplay"></iframe>

​

Are you in PK atm? How do you see the election dynamics in terms of the seats the PTI can win?

 

[awan_from_soon]

Talked to a couple of guys from NA61 (the biggest votebank seat of PTI in Rawalpindi) and according to them they are really angry for giving tickets to Kayani (NA) and Dr Shehzad (PP) so PMLN's Malik Ibrar and his brother will endup winning again from here due to angry voters of PTI.

Whoever has told you this has wrong info. NA61 has changed in area from the NA54 of old. Its PTI-heavy area of Chaklala Cantt is now included in NA60 (along with areas of old NA56). And PTI has gifted this sure shot seat to Sheikhu who might end up losing it.

 

[WebGuru]

Are you in PK atm? How do you see the election dynamics in terms of the seats the PTI can win?

Yes i am here and as i said earlier PTI is going to win both NA and PP seats from consistency that's i can safely say looking at the ground realities here. Overall the way things are shaping up in Punjab i can see PTI getting simple majority in NA based on Punjabseats if Khan can create that wave just before elections. We also need NAB verdict at least on one ref that will boost our chances even more. Khan is leaving for Umra in a day or two and i hope after Eid there will be a massive campaign in Punjab 24/7.

 

[WebGuru]

Whoever has told you this has wrong info. NA61 has changed in area from the NA54 of old. Its PTI-heavy area of Chaklala Cantt is now included in NA60 (along with areas of old NA56). And PTI has gifted this sure shot seat to Sheikhu who might end up losing it.

Sheikh decreased even his own chances by going for 2 seats now both of his seats are in trouble it's not easy to focus on 2 seats. Ghulam Sarwar had to give up NA59 today after lot of resistance from party workers. He will probably win NA63 against Nisar but NA59 was out of his reach

 

[Mian]

Whoever has told you this has wrong info. NA61 has changed in area from the NA54 of old. Its PTI-heavy area of Chaklala Cantt is now included in NA60 (along with areas of old NA56). And PTI has gifted this sure shot seat to Sheikhu who might end up losing it.

oh but who was going to contest from NA60 if not Sheikh? Do you think Chohan is ready for NA?

 

[Bewal Express]

Yes i am here and as i said earlier PTI is going to win both NA and PP seats from consistency that's i can safely say looking at the ground realities here. Overall the way things are shaping up in Punjab i can see PTI getting simple majority in NA based on Punjabseats if Khan can create that wave just before elections. We also need NAB verdict at least on one ref that will boost our chances even more. Khan is leaving for Umra in a day or two and i hope after Eid there will be a massive campaign in Punjab 24/7.

After talking to uncle a few weeks back, the Noora hold on the illiterate is still strong in Punjab. It seemed to me that these people cant bring themselves to admit that they voted for a criminal family.

 

[MachoKhan]

To win a simple majority, a party would have to take 137 seats out of 272 NA seats otherwise they will need the support of other parties to form a coalition government. To give you an example back in 2008 PPP just won 97 seats, PMLN won 71 and PMLQ won 42 odd seats. So first PPP formed a coalition government with PMLN and some other small parties but after differences they formed coalition government with PMLQ and small parties while PMLN had to sit in opposition.

So in order to aviod coalition government pti needs 137 to win? That looks impossible tbh, at the same time i dont want pti to form coalition government with ppp or pmnl

 

[awan_from_soon]

I guess i am a little late to the party...

Most of the tickets are announced and although there are a few issues here and there but overall i will say 90% NA tickets are ok you can't find better available candidates thn them for PTI.

A little disappointed because Malik Amin Aslam isn't given the ticket this time i voted for him on NA and Ijaz Bukhari on PP seat back in 2013. But looking at ground realities i can safely say giving both NA tickets in Attock District to Major Tahir is a smart move we can't win these 2 seats if Tahir Sadiq goes Independent in elections and we will endup with 2013 like situation where PMLN took advantage of divided vote between PTI and Major Group.

Now we just need to accommodate Amin Aslam somewhere and than i can safely say my constituency is going to give you first PTI MNA and first PTI MPA from Punjab : )

NA-55 = Major (R) Tahir Sadiq

PP-01 = Syed Yawar Abbas Bukhari

PP-02 candidate Qazi Ahmed Akbar current PTI President of District Attock is a young and fresh face but he isn't that strong and he is going to contest against the son of Shuja Khanzada (late) a very strong opponent.

So in my consistuency it's going to be:

NA-55:
Major Tahir (2 times District Mayor and father of current District Mayor) vs Sheikh Aftab (5 times MNA on PMLN ticket and multiple times minister)

PP-01:
Syed Yawar Abbas Bukhari (his family won this seat twice, 2002 & 2013) vs Sheikh Salman Sarwar (son of Sheikh Aftab and Salman was PP candidate in 2008, 2013 and NA candidate in 2002 but always lost)

Can Major win both seats?

Even if he does, I see him being a snake for PTI in bye-elections and push his son for candidature. I don't see Malik Amin coming to parliament even if Major wins both seats.

He is the worst thing to have happened to PTI in Attock. I don't think we needed him. Yesterday, there was this HA survey and 62% respondents chose PTI. Of which only 3 mentioned major group, the rest were all inherently pro-PTI.

So, imo, PTI made a blunder here by going for Mr Big Ego. Malik Amin and Sohail Kamrial could have easily snared these two seats with their personal votebanks+PTI voters+swing voters.

Major will be nothing but a problem for PTI from here on in.

 

[Mian]

Son of Jahangir Tareen isn't going to contest elections because he said he can't give enough time to halqa and is currently want to complete his degree first. Here is his message
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A message for my fellow PTI workers in Lodhran. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2018?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GE2018</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PTI?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PTI</a> <a href="https://t.co/FBYE2qtdei">pic.twitter.com/FBYE2qtdei</a></p>— Ali Khan Tareen (@aliktareen) <a href="https://twitter.com/aliktareen/status/1005489783366438913?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[awan_from_soon]

So in order to aviod coalition government pti needs 137 to win? That looks impossible tbh, at the same time i dont want pti to form coalition government with ppp or pmnl

If PTI can get close to 100 general seats, they can easily form government with the support of independents, Bizenjo's party, GDA, and PMLQ.

PTI will never go in coalition with PMLN or PPP, this much is quite certain. So, if PTI doesn't get the desired number of seats, I see PPP and PMLN forming a coalition government together to 'save democracy'.

 

[Bewal Express]

If PTI can get close to 100 general seats, they can easily form government with the support of independents, Bizenjo's party, GDA, and PMLQ.

PTI will never go in coalition with PMLN or PPP, this much is quite certain. So, if PTI doesn't get the desired number of seats, I see PPP and PMLN forming a coalition government together to 'save democracy'.

So a coalition of the thieves could be in offering. It will be interesting as Shobiz threatened to drag AZ through the streets.

 

[awan_from_soon]

So a coalition of the thieves could be in offering. It will be interesting as Shobiz threatened to drag AZ through the streets.

That's the worst case scenario

Even if it happens, it won't last for long. And if it does last for 5 years, it would be the end of PMLN's parliamentary road in the true sense.

 

[MachoKhan]

If PTI can get close to 100 general seats, they can easily form government with the support of independents, Bizenjo's party, GDA, and PMLQ.

PTI will never go in coalition with PMLN or PPP, this much is quite certain. So, if PTI doesn't get the desired number of seats, I see PPP and PMLN forming a coalition government together to 'save democracy'.

I see, 100 it is than for pti. According to you, what are the confirmed seats for pti so far? 50?60?

 

[WebGuru]

Can Major win both seats?

Even if he does, I see him being a snake for PTI in bye-elections and push his son for candidature. I don't see Malik Amin coming to parliament even if Major wins both seats.

He is the worst thing to have happened to PTI in Attock. I don't think we needed him. Yesterday, there was this HA survey and 62% respondents chose PTI. Of which only 3 mentioned major group, the rest were all inherently pro-PTI.

So, imo, PTI made a blunder here by going for Mr Big Ego. Malik Amin and Sohail Kamrial could have easily snared these two seats with their personal votebanks+PTI voters+swing voters.

Major will be nothing but a problem for PTI from here on in.

I can understand your reservations about him and finding gems like Kamrial and Amin isn't that easy but delimitation changed the ground realities. To give you an idea the only electable in Attock with votebank in all 6 Tehsils is Major Tahir Sadiq.

Old Constituencies by Tehsils:

NA-57 = Attock City, Hazro (Major was 3rd but got 50k votes as Ind and Amin got 56k on PTI ticket)

NA-58 = Pindigheb, Jand (Major was 3rd but got 58k votes as Ind and Kamrial got 72k on PTI ticket)

NA-59 = Hassan Abdal, Fateh Jang (Major son was sitting MNA from here PTI was 3rd here and PTI is really weak in these 2 Tehsils of Attock)


New Constituencies:

After delimitation NA-59 is gone and Tehsil Hassan Abdal is merged into NA-57 (new NA-55) and Tehsil Fateh Jang is merged into NA-58 (new NA-56).

Amin Aslam don't have any votebank in Hassan Abdal Tehsil and Kamrial don't have any votebank in Fateh Jang tehsil while PTI as a party also don't have much support in these 2 Tehsils of Attock. So what other choice as a party we had? Leave 2 Tehsils to PMLN and Major Group? That too in a 3 way contest? or include Major in the party and boost our chances.

The survey you saw on TV was only covering Attock City and Hazro Tehsil (mostly urban areas of these tehsils) of NA-55 while Hassan Abdal Tehsil was completley excluded although it's also part of NA-55 after new delimitation.

 

[WebGuru]

So in order to aviod coalition government pti needs 137 to win? That looks impossible tbh, at the same time i dont want pti to form coalition government with ppp or pmnl

If we can get the magical number of 100 thn we can get other small parties and independents on board instead of asking PPP or PMLN

 

[WebGuru]

After talking to uncle a few weeks back, the Noora hold on the illiterate is still strong in Punjab. It seemed to me that these people cant bring themselves to admit that they voted for a criminal family.

That's true but some people are really upset over Khatam-e-Nabuwat issue and their recent statements against Pak Army.

 

[awan_from_soon]

I see, 100 it is than for pti. According to you, what are the confirmed seats for pti so far? 50?60?

There is no such seat as a confirmed seat in electoral politics. However according to my analysis in view of recent events and surveys:

>KP: 25-30 seats. PTI is very strong here, and barring any fights for tickets, PTI is looking to sweep the province with an even bigger mandate than 2013.
>Lahore: 4-6 seats.
>Rest of Punjab: 50-60 seats. Most of these would come from the the 46 seats of South Punjab, followed by North Punjab. Central Punjab would be the weak link but PTI is looking strong in Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Sargodha with the joining of electables.
> Karachi: 2-5 seats. Mostly from the Karachi East district.
> Interior Sindh: 2-6 seats. SMQ's Ghousia jamat will give tough time on Umerkot and Tharparker seats. Some electables from Jacobabad have also joined the party. Similarly, Badin's Mirzas and Thatta's Sheerazis are also in talks with the party.
> Balochistan: 2-4 seats.
> FATA: 2-4 seats.
> Islamabad: 2-3 seats.

So doing the maths, PTI is looking set to win at least 89 general seats, which can stretch up to 118 in the best case scenario.

 

[WebGuru]

So a coalition of the thieves could be in offering. It will be interesting as Shobiz threatened to drag AZ through the streets.

PMLN voter in Punjab by nature is anti PPP and sharing bed with them for 5 years will destroy PMLN and PMLN realized it when they were on bed with PPP during Gillani era so they jumped out and PPP went with PMLQ for rest of the tenure.

 

[awan_from_soon]

I can understand your reservations about him and finding gems like Kamrial and Amin isn't that easy but delimitation changed the ground realities. To give you an idea the only electable in Attock with votebank in all 6 Tehsils is Major Tahir Sadiq.

Old Constituencies by Tehsils:

NA-57 = Attock City, Hazro (Major was 3rd but got 50k votes as Ind and Amin got 56k on PTI ticket)

NA-58 = Pindigheb, Jand (Major was 3rd but got 58k votes as Ind and Kamrial got 72k on PTI ticket)

NA-59 = Hassan Abdal, Fateh Jang (Major son was sitting MNA from here PTI was 3rd here and PTI is really weak in these 2 Tehsils of Attock)


New Constituencies:

After delimitation NA-59 is gone and Tehsil Hassan Abdal is merged into NA-57 (new NA-55) and Tehsil Fateh Jang is merged into NA-58 (new NA-56).

Amin Aslam don't have any votebank in Hassan Abdal Tehsil and Kamrial don't have any votebank in Fateh Jang tehsil while PTI as a party also don't have much support in these 2 Tehsils of Attock. So what other choice as a party we had? Leave 2 Tehsils to PMLN and Major Group? That too in a 3 way contest? or include Major in the party and boost our chances.

The survey you saw on TV was only covering Attock City and Hazro Tehsil (mostly urban areas of these tehsils) of NA-55 while Hassan Abdal Tehsil was completley excluded although it's also part of NA-55 after new delimitation.

My gripe being Major could have easily be accommodated on NA-56 while giving him the option to select PP panels across Attock; meanwhile asking him to support Malik Amin on NA-55. By giving both NA seats to Major, PTI has buckled before him, which is a bad trend to set with an egotistical guy.

 

[PakWarrior]

There is no such seat as a confirmed seat in electoral politics. However according to my analysis in view of recent events and surveys:

>KP: 25-30 seats. PTI is very strong here, and barring any fights for tickets, PTI is looking to sweep the province with an even bigger mandate than 2013.
>Lahore: 4-6 seats.
>Rest of Punjab: 50-60 seats. Most of these would come from the the 46 seats of South Punjab, followed by North Punjab. Central Punjab would be the weak link but PTI is looking strong in Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Sargodha with the joining of electables.
> Karachi: 2-5 seats. Mostly from the Karachi East district.
> Interior Sindh: 2-6 seats. SMQ's Ghousia jamat will give tough time on Umerkot and Tharparker seats. Some electables from Jacobabad have also joined the party. Similarly, Badin's Mirzas and Thatta's Sheerazis are also in talks with the party.
> Balochistan: 2-4 seats.
> FATA: 2-4 seats.
> Islamabad: 2-3 seats.

So doing the maths, PTI is looking set to win at least 89 general seats, which can stretch up to 118 in the best case scenario.

Bro I agree with your forecast but they need minimum 100 overall. Getting 37 independents or small parties to form government will be easier.

80 to 90 seats overall will not be good enough. They will struggle to form government.

When we do a seat by seat prediction on here over the next few days we will get a clearer idea.

I can say, even though I'm not in Pakistan, that from my family constituency it's looking like only one PTI seat. The other two are going to noon league.

Also PTI Arain baraadri in Sahiwal are creating some noise in Sahiwal today as PTI didn't give any seats to Arain members in Sahiwal.

 

[PakWarrior]

Sorry meant say out of my family area of Sahiwal there are 3 mna seats up for grabs and it's looking like one PTI will win and the other two noon league.

 

[Strike!]

 

[Mian]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My son <a href="https://twitter.com/aliktareen?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@aliktareen</a> will not be contesting in the upcoming <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GE2018?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GE2018</a>. He explains his reason in the video. <a href="https://t.co/Ls0t88wcV3">https://t.co/Ls0t88wcV3</a></p>— Jahangir Khan Tareen (@JahangirKTareen) <a href="https://twitter.com/JahangirKTareen/status/1005542782151389185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Mian]

I heard Ch Nisar isn't getting 2 NA tickets of Rawalpindi from PMLN ?

 

[PakWarrior]

I heard Ch Nisar isn't getting 2 NA tickets of Rawalpindi from PMLN ?

That's right bro.

Nawaz Sharif doesn't want to give him ticket but Shabaz is telling Nawaz to give it. We will find out tomorrow or Monday.

The best thing for Nisar is to run as independent. He is going to win easily anyway.

He will then join whichever party is likely to be in government. PMLN or PTI.

 

[Mian]

That's right bro.

Nawaz Sharif doesn't want to give him ticket but Shabaz is telling Nawaz to give it. We will find out tomorrow or Monday.

The best thing for Nisar is to run as independent. He is going to win easily anyway.

He will then join whichever party is likely to be in government. PMLN or PTI.

In case Ch Nisar goes Independent chances of PTI increase massively even at NA59 with divided vote of PMLN and Nisar. btw his second seat NA63 is already in PTI pocket and Nisar even with PMLN ticket can't win it.

 

[Mian]

What's there for Tareen now? he himself can't contest, Son is busy with studies so can't contest and giving the seat outsider, Sister was denied ticket from NA54. Tareen himself can't hold any post in PTI except being an unofficial adviser to IK.

A kingmaker?

 

[awan_from_soon]

oh but who was going to contest from NA60 if not Sheikh? Do you think Chohan is ready for NA?

Hina Manzur, a nobody in politics, gave tough time to the established Malik Ibrar in old NA-54 because of the ideological pro-PTI vote in Chaklala Cantt. Army influence is extensive in the cantt area which has army-centric housing schemes left and right along with neighborhoods of middle and upper middle class civilians.

Even nazriyati Kayani can manage a win from here this time let alone Chohan, who is a seasoned and active politician.

PTI made a big blunder in appeasing Sheikhu. NA-60 seems like a lost cause now. People here won't vote for qalam dawat over bat because they are not in an eternal debt of Sheikh Rasheed's work, unlike NA-62 (old NA-55).

 

[waqar goraya]

Sheikh decreased even his own chances by going for 2 seats now both of his seats are in trouble it's not easy to focus on 2 seats. Ghulam Sarwar had to give up NA59 today after lot of resistance from party workers. He will probably win NA63 against Nisar but NA59 was out of his reach

Nothing official yet. NA 59 is Nisar's constituency?

NA 60 people should also stage a dharna outside Banigala

 

[awan_from_soon]

Sheikh decreased even his own chances by going for 2 seats now both of his seats are in trouble it's not easy to focus on 2 seats. Ghulam Sarwar had to give up NA59 today after lot of resistance from party workers. He will probably win NA63 against Nisar but NA59 was out of his reach

Sheikhu is not contesting on both seats. He is fighting from NA-62, while his underling, Ch. Adnan, is most likely getting the AML ticket from NA-60.

 

[Mian]

Hina Manzur, a nobody in politics, gave tough time to the established Malik Ibrar in old NA-54 because of the ideological pro-PTI vote in Chaklala Cantt. Army influence is extensive in the cantt area which has army-centric housing schemes left and right along with neighborhoods of middle and upper middle class civilians.

Even nazriyati Kayani can manage a win from here this time let alone Chohan, who is a seasoned and active politician.

PTI made a big blunder in appeasing Sheikhu. NA-60 seems like a lost cause now. People here won't vote for qalam dawat over bat because they are not in an eternal debt of Sheikh Rasheed's work, unlike NA-62 (old NA-55).

Time to stage a dherna in front of laal haveli!

 

[Mian]

Sheikhu is not contesting on both seats. He is fighting from NA-62, while his underling, Ch. Adnan, is most likely getting the AML ticket from NA-60.

Why not his nephew? i heard his nephew was going to replace him in future. Or is it because Ch Adnan is from NA60?

Last time Sheikh Rasheed tried his luck on 2 seats was back in 2008 and ended up as number 3 on both of them NA55/56

 

[awan_from_soon]

NA 60 people should also stage a dharna outside Banigala

Time to stage a dherna in front of laal haveli!

That won't change a thing. Sheikhu is driving a hard bargain. He says that he will campaign for all 3 city seats of rwp, including Kayani's NA-61. And he is making assurances that all 3 will be victories for the PTI-AML coalition.

If there is one thing we know about Sheikhu, it is that he makes tall claims. I may be wrong, but it will be a miracle if Sheikh retains his own seat of NA-62. His party is weak and has like 10 core members and a few thousand workers. It is not made for a campaign spread across the whole city. Qalam dawat may sell around Lal Haveli but its minute sphere of influence in Pindi politics ends there.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Why not his nephew? i heard his nephew was going to replace him in future. Or is it because Ch Adnan is from NA60?

Last time Sheikh Rasheed tried his luck on 2 seats was back in 2008 and ended up as number 3 on both of them NA55/56

Ch Adnan is the number 2 person in AML and is a generous funder of Sheikhu's cause.

 

[waqar goraya]

Ch Adnan is the number 2 person in AML and is a generous funder of Sheikhu's cause.

Then chaudhry can also contest on PTI ticket.

 

[WebGuru]

Nothing official yet. NA 59 is Nisar's constituency?

NA 60 people should also stage a dharna outside Banigala

NA-59 (Old NA-52) is his primary constituency that includes his home Chakri. NA63 (Old NA-53) is his secondary seat Taxila. He lost NA53 to Ghulam Sarwar in 2013 and this time again he wants to contest from both NA seats and two PP seats just like 2013. He also lost a PP seat agaist the brother of Ghulam Sarwar in 2013.

 

[WebGuru]

Sheikhu is not contesting on both seats. He is fighting from NA-62, while his underling, Ch. Adnan, is most likely getting the AML ticket from NA-60.

PTI strategy for Rawalpindi looks strange to me. Rawalpindi was suppose to be our stronghold we had 2 MNAs and multiple MPAs from there but it looks like we are gifting it to PMLN.

 

[Mian]

Ch Adnan is the number 2 person in AML and is a generous funder of Sheikhu's cause.

oh ok got it

 

[Mian]

That won't change a thing. Sheikhu is driving a hard bargain. He says that he will campaign for all 3 city seats of rwp, including Kayani's NA-61. And he is making assurances that all 3 will be victories for the PTI-AML coalition.

If there is one thing we know about Sheikhu, it is that he makes tall claims. I may be wrong, but it will be a miracle if Sheikh retains his own seat of NA-62. His party is weak and has like 10 core members and a few thousand workers. It is not made for a campaign spread across the whole city. Qalam dawat may sell around Lal Haveli but its minute sphere of influence in Pindi politics ends there.

PTI shuld have convinced him to be on Bat instead of qalam davat.

 

[Mian]

Dr Shahzad Waseem withdraw from PP15 (comes under NA61) because he is going to run IK campaign in Isb and he did same for Hashmi in 2013. For those who don't he is a former senator, minister, cec member of PTI and IK's adviser on foreign affairs. Now we need to get a strong MPA under Kayani.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My leader Imran Khan has asked me to lead his campaign for NA 53 Islamabad. I m grateful to him for this honor. I therefore withdraw from contesting PP 15 to put in all my energies for his campaign.</p>— Dr. Shahzad Waseem (@dswpti) <a href="https://twitter.com/dswpti/status/1005547931691253760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[last_knight]

No money corruption involved in Ticket decisions.
Hearing some news that money corruption was used in Surveys conducted by PTI.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] , Who is this Shoaib Siddiqi ? Sources telling Siddiqi received billions for manipulating PTI-conducted surveys for some seats in Punjab. Who is Shoaib Siddiqi ? Anyone here with an insight into him ?

 

[Mian]

No money corruption involved in Ticket decisions.
Hearing some news that money corruption was used in Surveys conducted by PTI.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] , Who is this Shoaib Siddiqi ? Sources telling Siddiqi received billions for manipulating PTI-conducted surveys for some seats in Punjab. Who is Shoaib Siddiqi ? Anyone here with an insight into him ?

He is PTI MPA from Lahore and is really close to Aleem Khan. He is also the organiser of all the PTI jalsas no matter if it's in KP, Sindh, Punjab or anywhere in Pakistan. I think he was part of PTI membership campaign in Sialkot because there were pics of him with Dar brothers.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Welcoming Shoaib Siddiqui to Sialkot and discussing the upcoming <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SialkotShowdown?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SialkotShowdown</a> on 7th May. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PTI?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PTI</a> <a href="https://t.co/LG5gO0pQ0o">pic.twitter.com/LG5gO0pQ0o</a></p>— Usman Dar (@UdarOfficial) <a href="https://twitter.com/UdarOfficial/status/859416811904827392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 2, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Mian]

^ Col Ajmal Sabir Raja also claimed same that the party survey done in his constituency NA59 was a fraud and ticket was wrongly given to Ghulam Sarwar so after a 24 hours long dherna IK listened to him and ticket is given back to Col Ajmal Sabir Raja

 

[waqar goraya]

No money corruption involved in Ticket decisions.
Hearing some news that money corruption was used in Surveys conducted by PTI.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] , Who is this Shoaib Siddiqi ? Sources telling Siddiqi received billions for manipulating PTI-conducted surveys for some seats in Punjab. Who is Shoaib Siddiqi ? Anyone here with an insight into him ?

Aleem Khan's right hand man who won seat during that by election in Lahore. These days he is a major player of provincial organisation.

 

[Mian]

Aleem Khan's right hand man who won seat during that by election in Lahore. These days he is a major player of provincial organisation.

I remember he was sitting there with Aleem Khan in those central punjab candidate interivews

 

[waqar goraya]

No money corruption involved in Ticket decisions.
Hearing some news that money corruption was used in Surveys conducted by PTI.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] , Who is this Shoaib Siddiqi ? Sources telling Siddiqi received billions for manipulating PTI-conducted surveys for some seats in Punjab. Who is Shoaib Siddiqi ? Anyone here with an insight into him ?

But changes are being made in Sialkot decisions. NA 74 candidate is expected to be changed. COnspiracy theory doing rounds that Zaid Hamid is hum-zulf of SMQ and thus a very weak candidate has been fielded against SMQ's nephew , Zaid Hamid's son.

 

[waqar goraya]

So, ticket distribution , alliances , election campaign all to take care of and Immy is going for Umrah?

He should definitely go but after clearing this ticket distribution mess.

 

[Mian]

But changes are being made in Sialkot decisions. NA 74 candidate is expected to be changed. COnspiracy theory doing rounds that Zaid Hamid is hum-zulf of SMQ and thus a very weak candidate has been fielded against SMQ's nephew , Zaid Hamid's son.

Looks like Samsaam Bukhari decision was done by both SMQ and Ch Sarwar. Sarwar is now giving clarifications on twitter that he is not responsible for that decision and region recommended Samsaam name.

 

[waqar goraya]

NA-59 (Old NA-52) is his primary constituency that includes his home Chakri. NA63 (Old NA-53) is his secondary seat Taxila. He lost NA53 to Ghulam Sarwar in 2013 and this time again he wants to contest from both NA seats and two PP seats just like 2013. He also lost a PP seat agaist the brother of Ghulam Sarwar in 2013.

If Basharat Raja (Q league) supports PTI then colonel sahib can give Nisar a very tough time in his home constituency too.

PTI accommodated Sheikhu for one seat in 2013. I don't know why this stupid decision of leaving 2 constituencies for him is being made when PTI as a party is lot more stronger than 2013.
You Pindi boys should definitely do something about this.

 

[Mian]

Things are not looking good in KP lot of groupings and infighting going on in different districts. And one major issue is majority of KP leadership of PTI isn't happy with Taimur Jhagra being given the ticket because they are feeling insecure he is PTI's potential CM candidate for KP. They will make sure he lose or withdraw.

 

[waqar goraya]

Looks like Samsaam Bukhari decision was done by both SMQ and Ch Sarwar. Sarwar is now giving clarifications on twitter that he is not responsible for that decision and region recommended Samsaam name.

Region means South Punjab i guess, and in South Punjab SMQ and JKT are up against each other. Don't know what he means by region. Because official regional head is from JKT's team which is against this decision.

Nevertheless, things are much better than 2013 when ticket distribution was abysmal. People are protesting on some clear injustices on social media, outside Bani gala or in their constituencies.

It is a good thing that PTI has made the list public. Most of the decisions are sound, remaining 10 percent can also be made better with this continuous criticism in few constituencies.

 

[waqar goraya]

Things are not looking good in KP lot of groupings and infighting going on in different districts. And one major issue is majority of KP leadership of PTI isn't happy with Taimur Jhagra being given the ticket because they are feeling insecure he is PTI's potential CM candidate for KP. They will make sure he lose or withdraw.

I guess this is where immy needs to cast his veto power.

 

[Syed1]

So, ticket distribution , alliances , election campaign all to take care of and Immy is going for Umrah?

He should definitely go but after clearing this ticket distribution mess.

Wait what? Why the heck is he going for Umrah



Its almost like IK thinks the elections have won and he can just chillax... Itni over-confidence bhi achi nahi hoti