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Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

Which will be the top party after the upcoming general elections?


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[MENTION=128087]last_knight[/MENTION] , our man on ground from Silakot.

These seem PTI NA candidates

Usman Dar
Dr. Firdous
Brig Aslam Ghumman
Usman Khalid (Daska)
Chaudhry Ghulam Abbas (Pasrur)
 
[MENTION=128087]last_knight[/MENTION] , our man on ground from Silakot.

These seem PTI NA candidates

Usman Dar
Dr. Firdous
Brig Aslam Ghumman
Usman Khalid (Daska)
Chaudhry Ghulam Abbas (Pasrur)

Gumman seat isn't safe. Dr Sahiba can win it. UD is up against Khawaja Asif, that will be one of the key battles of GE 18. Daska seat is in PTI favour. Not sure about Pasrur.

UD and Khawaja Asif battle will be limelight on polling day. Khawaja Asif will lose it because of deeds of his son.
 
Gumman seat isn't safe. Dr Sahiba can win it. UD is up against Khawaja Asif, that will be one of the key battles of GE 18. Daska seat is in PTI favour. Not sure about Pasrur.

UD and Khawaja Asif battle will be limelight on polling day. Khawaja Asif will lose it because of deeds of his son.

What did his son do? Also, I don't think Khwaja Asif will lose, especially with the overturning of the IHC decision.
 
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Source for the map?
 
I meant lower class. Areas like Korangi, Baldia Town, Malir, Lyari, and then these areas in NA-250 such as Delhi Colony, Hazara Colony etc.

Are you still updating the opinion poll spreadsheet? If so, can you please share the updated version here. Gives a nice birds eye view of the whole situation.
 
After the candidates are finally announced today or tomorrow for all parties can Waseem or someone make a chart/list with all the constituencies(if not all then KP can be left out as inshallah that is more or less a confirmed PTI sweep) and candidates.

For example for NA 250 (just an example). Can you make a table with the two or three candidates from the main parties that will be contesting each other. Next to that if you can make two boxes of the 2013 results with and runner up and then another box with the %chance of pti winning from the constituency?

For example:

Na250:

PMLN candidate:

PTI candiate:

2013 result: number of votes:
Winner
Runner UP

%chance of winning for PTI this time

The table can be wider or something along those lines. I guess you get the picture.

We can then discuss the constituency,candidates and current public opinion constituency per constituency.

Would really appreciate this. I know this is bit of a task and please only do this when you have free time.

That would be awesome and we will have a vibrant discussion on this thread as we are just weeks away now.
 
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After the candidates are finally announced today or tomorrow for all parties can Waseem or someone make a chart/list with all the constituencies(if not all then KP can be left out as inshallah that is more or less a confirmed PTI sweep) and candidates.

For example for NA 250 (just an example). Can you make a table with the two or three candidates from the main parties that will be contesting each other. Next to that if you can make two boxes of the 2013 results with and runner up and then another box with the %chance of pti winning from the constituency?

For example:

Na250:

PMLN candidate:

PTI candiate:

2013 result: number of votes:
Winner
Runner UP

%chance of winning for PTI this time

The table can be wider or something along those lines. I guess you get the picture.

We can then discuss the constituency,candidates and current public opinion constituency per constituency.

Would really appreciate this. I know this is bit of a task and please only do this when you have free time.

That would be awesome and we will have a vibrant discussion on this thread as we are just weeks away now.

I've started making one. Will post it here once tickets are announced.
 
Former Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali all set to join PTI
 
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] thoughts on the caretaker Punjab CM?
 
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] thoughts on the caretaker Punjab CM?

Although no administrative experience but a very honest man nobody can point finger at him. But if administrative experience is that much necessary than Najam Sethi had no experience at all when he was CM Punjab. PMLN already started crying because of Askari's appointment.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">حسن عسکری غیر جانبداربالکل نہيں ہیں ، سعد رفیق</p>— Geo News Urdu (@geonews_urdu) <a href="https://twitter.com/geonews_urdu/status/1004679801343565824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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This Karachi leadership of PTI is full of opportunists! Firdos Naqvi (PTI Karachi President) is contesting as MPA under IK to increase his chances of winning while Imran Ismail is contesting as MPA under Alvi on the safest seat of Karachi for PTI and Zaidi also selected a very safe seat. Faisal vawda ko chor ker saari Karachi leadership ne safe seats rakh li hen apne liay :)) Ab Amir Liaqat ka kia hoga?
 
I hope this will create a wave in whole Karachi in favor of PTI

A correction to my previous post.This is just outside my area,but since my family's vote is registered to Gulshan,they can vote there.Unfortunately I missed the deadline to register my vote.
 
Although no administrative experience but a very honest man nobody can point finger at him. But if administrative experience is that much necessary than Najam Sethi had no experience at all when he was CM Punjab. PMLN already started crying because of Askari's appointment.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">حسن عسکری غیر جانبداربالکل نہيں ہیں ، سعد رفیق</p>— Geo News Urdu (@geonews_urdu) <a href="https://twitter.com/geonews_urdu/status/1004679801343565824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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So one hopes no rigging in Punjab?
 
So one hopes no rigging in Punjab?

Yea and ECP rejected PMLN demand to take back this appointment now PMLN is asking Dr Askari to step back because he is controversial in their view. In KP PTI accepted ECP appointment of CM although he is anti PTI and pro JUIF.
 
Yea and ECP rejected PMLN demand to take back this appointment now PMLN is asking Dr Askari to step back because he is controversial in their view. In KP PTI accepted ECP appointment of CM although he is anti PTI and pro JUIF.

Dr Askari is an honest man. I sure hope he doesn't succumb to patwari pressure and relinquish the post.
 
What did his son do? Also, I don't think Khwaja Asif will lose, especially with the overturning of the IHC decision.

In previous post, I meant to say ghumman seat isn't safe if it's ghumman who gets ticket. Otherwise, no PMLn in opposition at this constituency. PMLn serving MNA from there wanted to join PTI, And Ghumman blocked this defection. And Anti-Ghumman sentiments are sizeable.

Son of Khawaja Asif has been treating locals and business communities very badly. Jagga-Tax, Bullying and harassment. Victims include second and third tier members of business community that had been a strong pillar of support and bridge between voters and Khawaja.Hell even His PA left him to join Usman Dar, that's where documents came from, ex-PA to Khawaja
 
In previous post, I meant to say ghumman seat isn't safe if it's ghumman who gets ticket. Otherwise, no PMLn in opposition at this constituency. PMLn serving MNA from there wanted to join PTI, And Ghumman blocked this defection. And Anti-Ghumman sentiments are sizeable.

Son of Khawaja Asif has been treating locals and business communities very badly. Jagga-Tax, Bullying and harassment. Victims include second and third tier members of business community that had been a strong pillar of support and bridge between voters and Khawaja.Hell even His PA left him to join Usman Dar, that's where documents came from, ex-PA to Khawaja

Well, you can only do that type of ghundagardi in cahoots in with the local administration. The very administration which is going to oversee the elections.
 
So one hopes no rigging in Punjab?

Well Hasan Askari has no administration experience as [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] said but is highly educated (PHD) non controversial figure but PMLN is making him controversial and quite surprised to see their senior leaders rejecting his appointment because he criticises PMLN on few issues on tv.

What about Najam Sethi then? Didn't he criticise Imran Khan a lot? Didn't he admit that Shahbaz Sharif was still in control even during caretaker setup and he was even rewarded after elections. If he could become CT CM then Dr Hasan Askari is angel in front of him.
 
NA-100 Chiniot, reasonably safe seat for PMLN.

View attachment 82056

That's a sure pmln victory in NA 100 according to that picture.

From the Habib Akram surveys anything like this 55% for pmln v 33% for PTI are sure victories for pmln.

It's the 50% to 45% Pmln v pti that are going to be tight and pti will have to work very hard to make sure voters vote.
 
Dr Hasan Askari's announcement as CM Punjab is the best thing to have happened for PTI in terms of elections 2018.

A very good man.
 
So PTI are supposed to announce most of their candidates today.

Balochistan President Sardar Rind already leaked confirmed list of Balochistan candidates and pashtun leadership of PTI balochistan isn't looking happy with the decisions
 
Balochistan President Sardar Rind already leaked confirmed list of Balochistan candidates and pashtun leadership of PTI balochistan isn't looking happy with the decisions

As said earlier, Have to delay till Eleventh Hour. And IK should take An hour in his press conference addressing his voters before finally announcing the list of candidates. At this moment in campaign, taking voters in confidence is more important than listening to applicants.

If deadline is extended, PTI should delay announcement. Simple.
 
Deadline is extended for submitting names, so I guess PTI will delay announcement.
 
Honestly there should be limit on the number of seats one person can run from, because after elections he/she only has to pick one and then by-elections are held on the rest further wasting taxpayers money.
 
Dr Hasan Askari's announcement as CM Punjab is the best thing to have happened for PTI in terms of elections 2018.

A very good man.

PMLn k ronay say to yahi lagta hay. Atm, they are literally crying, but to no avail. Aristotle has already started insulting personality of CTCM.
 
PMLn k ronay say to yahi lagta hay. Atm, they are literally crying, but to no avail. Aristotle has already started insulting personality of CTCM.

Dr. Askari is a simple and honest man. I am sure the dirty PMLN leadership is maligning him so that he withdraws himself. Since ECP is in no position to change him and PTI is supporting his candidature. I sure hope he takes the oath tomorrow and sticks to the job instead of succumbing to pressure
 
Dr. Askari is a simple and honest man. I am sure the dirty PMLN leadership is maligning him so that he withdraws himself. Since ECP is in no position to change him and PTI is supporting his candidature. I sure hope he takes the oath tomorrow and sticks to the job instead of succumbing to pressure

Historically PMLN always had issues with shia and there are hardly any shias in their top leadership (which is the opposite in PPP and PTI). They are are afraid of Dr Askari just like they were afraid of Baqir Najfi
 
How are they going to adjust him and his brother?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">سکندربوسن بھی آیندہ چندروز میں پی ٹی آئی میں شمولیت کا اعلان کرینگے،ذرائع پی ٹی آئی</p>— Geo News Urdu (@geonews_urdu) <a href="https://twitter.com/geonews_urdu/status/1004774511118573569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Anyone remember Soomro?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">محمد میاں سومرو آیندہ چند روز میں پی ٹی آئی میں شمولیت کا باضابطہ اعلان کرینگے،ذرائع</p>— Geo News Urdu (@geonews_urdu) <a href="https://twitter.com/geonews_urdu/status/1004774428180434945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Dr. Askari is a simple and honest man. I am sure the dirty PMLN leadership is maligning him so that he withdraws himself. Since ECP is in no position to change him and PTI is supporting his candidature. I sure hope he takes the oath tomorrow and sticks to the job instead of succumbing to pressure

In shallah; he will take oath tomorrow as he looks determined. Allah SWT has given him a task to hold free and fair elections in Punjab and he should fullfill this duty.
 
Ticket announcement delayed for 1 more day after the extension of nomination papers filing.
 
Nomination paper filing date is 11th June so anyone can file them but party ticket submitting date is 29th June that's why this delay i guess because party ticket can be given any time.

There are reports of infighting from different seats already because of some unofficial reports of tickets distribution. Just heard Major group of Attock is looking really angry and thinking about going Independent in this election because Amin Aslam is given ticket for NA55
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Update regarding the PTI Candidates List : we know our supporters and workers are concerned about their constituencies/candidates, but the scrutiny process is still underway. <br><br>All other lists circulating on Social Media are fake.We will upload the list on <a href="https://t.co/ZNXTBrDCu2">https://t.co/ZNXTBrDCu2</a></p>— PTI (@PTIofficial) <a href="https://twitter.com/PTIofficial/status/1004838884491046914?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION]

I started on this table last week. I am gonna put something like this on Google Docs, and we can make predictions here and then create a chart of predictions. We could predict the result of the whole election and then see how close our predictions are.

I have made my own predictions on the table for now. But we will change them after discussing here.

image.png
 
[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION]

I started on this table last week. I am gonna put something like this on Google Docs, and we can make predictions here and then create a chart of predictions. We could predict the result of the whole election and then see how close our predictions are.

I have made my own predictions on the table for now. But we will change them after discussing here.

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That's awesome Hussain,thanks.

I like the fact that you have put the margin number from 2013 as now we can see how many votes were the difference. This is a great stat, especially for those tight constituencies and will help with predictions.

Great work. Looking forward to using it for predictions once all candidates announced.
 
[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION]

I started on this table last week. I am gonna put something like this on Google Docs, and we can make predictions here and then create a chart of predictions. We could predict the result of the whole election and then see how close our predictions are.

I have made my own predictions on the table for now. But we will change them after discussing here.

image.png


great work bro now we can all use the template you created and make predictions. thanks!
 
Imran Khan and PTI will most likely suffer due to the ongoing fiasco regarding the revelations made by Reham Khan in her book which is supposedly to hit the markets a week before elections as some insiders are saying.

PMLN and PPP will never let any other person/party take majority and form government in Pakistan. Really sad state of affairs in the country for the past decades.
 
Imran Khan and PTI will most likely suffer due to the ongoing fiasco regarding the revelations made by Reham Khan in her book which is supposedly to hit the markets a week before elections as some insiders are saying.

PMLN and PPP will never let any other person/party take majority and form government in Pakistan. Really sad state of affairs in the country for the past decades.

I don't think it will make a difference to PTI tbh. Pakistani public dont really care and are quite egoistic when it comes to giving vote. Plus; reham has been discredited.
 

That's great bro, really helps with the prediction :)

I still have printout of similar one i came across online for 2013 elections with indicators like "No Chance", "Moderate Chance" or "High chance" from PTI perspective.

It would be lot easier when we have candidates finalised which should be 3-4 days away. I know PTI is ahead in KPK but i wouldn't underestimate MMA either, it is yet to be seen how effective they are as a group as JUIF+JI combination together would've won many more seats in 2013 but then PTI is lot more popular after their good performance so it's a tough call.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">تقریبا”ساٹھ فیصد حلقوں کے امیدواران کی فہرست مکمل کر لی گئ ہے، تاخیر کیلئے معذرت صرف آخری دفعہ کا ایک Review جاری کے مباداء کوئ غلطی نہ رہ جائے آج کسی بھی وقت تحریک انصاف کے امیدواران کی فہرست <a href="https://t.co/JqhIGG4GG7">https://t.co/JqhIGG4GG7</a> پر میسر ہو گی۔ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PTI?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PTI</a></p>— Fawad Hussain (@fawadchaudhry) <a href="https://twitter.com/fawadchaudhry/status/1005016434047635456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 8, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Imran Khan and PTI will most likely suffer due to the ongoing fiasco regarding the revelations made by Reham Khan in her book which is supposedly to hit the markets a week before elections as some insiders are saying.

PMLN and PPP will never let any other person/party take majority and form government in Pakistan. Really sad state of affairs in the country for the past decades.

It will have little to zero effect.

PTI are on course to have a great performance on July 25th inshallah.

We can't say for sure if they will win but it is going to be very close.

If they make the same polling day organisation mistakes like last time then they will suffer. I'm talking about making sure their team is present and getting voters to vote constituency per constituency on the day.
 
That's great bro, really helps with the prediction :)

I still have printout of similar one i came across online for 2013 elections with indicators like "No Chance", "Moderate Chance" or "High chance" from PTI perspective.

It would be lot easier when we have candidates finalised which should be 3-4 days away. I know PTI is ahead in KPK but i wouldn't underestimate MMA either, it is yet to be seen how effective they are as a group as JUIF+JI combination together would've won many more seats in 2013 but then PTI is lot more popular after their good performance so it's a tough call.

What do you think of the predictions I have made?
 
Imran Khan to also contest from Islamabad seat to keep everyone united in Islamabad, Ali Awan will most likely contest in by elections once Imran Khan wins.

I like the fact that Imran Khan is running from different areas to create wave but this is too much for my liking. Mianwali, Lahore and Karachi were perfect as KPK doesn't need a wave.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">تقریبا”ساٹھ فیصد حلقوں کے امیدواران کی فہرست مکمل کر لی گئ ہے، تاخیر کیلئے معذرت صرف آخری دفعہ کا ایک Review جاری کے مباداء کوئ غلطی نہ رہ جائے آج کسی بھی وقت تحریک انصاف کے امیدواران کی فہرست <a href="https://t.co/JqhIGG4GG7">https://t.co/JqhIGG4GG7</a> پر میسر ہو گی۔ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PTI?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PTI</a></p>— Fawad Hussain (@fawadchaudhry) <a href="https://twitter.com/fawadchaudhry/status/1005016434047635456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 8, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Took so long and PTI comes out with a list of rubbish candidates for Province Punjab.

Basically, candidates for CM Punjab have ruined it.
Aleem Khan Chosed ex-members of PML-Q for 90% constituencies and Shah Mehmood chosed ex-PPP guys. Some of these candidates lost their Union Councel during Local Body Elections but find themselves with a PTI ticket to contest for Punjab Assembly courtesy affiliations to either Aleem Khan (ex PML-Q candidates) or Shah Mehmood ( ex PPP candidates).

Thanks to Aleem Khan and Shah Mehmood, PTI is going to win 20% seats less than the potential because I see a lot of independent candidates from the applicants rejected by Aleem Khan and SMQ.
 
Imran Khan to also contest from Islamabad seat to keep everyone united in Islamabad, Ali Awan will most likely contest in by elections once Imran Khan wins.

I like the fact that Imran Khan is running from different areas to create wave but this is too much for my liking. Mianwali, Lahore and Karachi were perfect as KPK doesn't need a wave.

At this rate IK might run from 272 seats :))
 
So in the end the zamanat zabat and the nazriyati group end up getting tickets from many constituencies. Screw both of these groups for decreasing our chances of winning
 
List for NA is fine.
It's Punjab MPA Candidates list that has exposed Aleem Khan and SMQ. Some in this list lost UC elections, some others are not even residents of city, let alone constituency.

I agree NA list is very unbiased. But Punjab List isn't. How is PTI any different from PMLn when PTI is also going same route.
 
So candidates list has been finally announced.

Image quality isn't great, hopefully we can replace this once we get better quality images but still readable.
 
List for NA is fine.
It's Punjab MPA Candidates list that has exposed Aleem Khan and SMQ. Some in this list lost UC elections, some others are not even residents of city, let alone constituency.

I agree NA list is very unbiased. But Punjab List isn't. How is PTI any different from PMLn when PTI is also going same route.

They made sure all the hard work of Tareen is ruined.
 
So in the end the zamanat zabat and the nazriyati group end up getting tickets from many constituencies. Screw both of these groups for decreasing our chances of winning

Exactly. I'm absolutely gutted.

Some in this list lost UC elections, some others are not even residents of city, let alone constituency. Only criterion was loyalty to either Aleem Khan (Central Punjab Tickets) or SMQ ( Multan and Sariki Belt).

With this list, PTI is winning AT LEAST 20% Lesser seats of MPA in Punjab than their potential.
 
Shahid Khattak from ISF KPK successfully gets ticket from NA34 Karak.....great decision in my opinion as we need more Murad Saeed type youth.

PTI women candidates on general seats:
1-Ghulam Bibi: NA115 Jhang
2-Dr Yasmin Raashid: NA125 Lahore
3-Ayesha Nazir: NA162 Vehari
4-Fatima Tahir: NA168 Bahawalnagar
5-Khadeeja Aamir: NA173 Bahawalpur
6- Zartaj Gul Wazir: NA191 DGK

I wish there were more women candidates but great to see Zartaj Gul there.

I am confused about Malik Amin Aslam, how come his name has't been announced? Isn't he supposed to be Environment minister if PTI wins??
 
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Exactly. I'm absolutely gutted.

Some in this list lost UC elections, some others are not even residents of city, let alone constituency. Only criterion was loyalty to either Aleem Khan (Central Punjab Tickets) or SMQ ( Multan and Sariki Belt).

With this list, PTI is winning AT LEAST 20% Lesser seats of MPA in Punjab than their potential.

Guys if we are absolutely honest PTI does not have a chance of forming provincial government in Punjab (or Sindh) so focus should be on center. I guess MNA seats are acceptable?
 
Guys if we are absolutely honest PTI does not have a chance of forming provincial government in Punjab (or Sindh) so focus should be on center. I guess MNA seats are acceptable?

There are some blunders at NA level too although not as big as the one at PP
 
Shahid Khattak from ISF KPK successfully gets ticket from NA34 Karak.....great decision in my opinion as we need more Murad Saeed type youth.

PTI women candidates on general seats:
1-Ghulam Bibi: NA115 Jhang
2-Dr Yasmin Raashid: NA125 Lahore
3-Ayesha Nazir: NA162 Vehari
4-Fatima Tahir: NA168 Bahawalnagar
5-Khadeeja Aamir: NA173 Bahawalpur
6- Zartaj Gul Wazir: NA191 DGK

I wish there were more women candidates but great to see Zartaj Gul there.

I am confused about Malik Amin Aslam, how come his name has't been announced? Isn't he supposed to be Environment minister if PTI wins??

There is a big phadda going on right now at NA55 major group is threatening to break away from PTI if Amin is given the ticket.
 
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