Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[WebGuru]

Habib Akram was doing NA-61 Rawalpindi survey today where are the results

 

[Syed1]

A lot of people that I have talked to who are from Karachi have said that MQM actually do work and that is the ground reality. I've never visited Karachi (except the airport), and you are from Karachi (at least from what I remember reading in other posts), what is your take on MQM without that dullu mollu Altaf in power.

Yaar MQM is a necessary evil in the context of Karachi. We have seen over the last 10 years what happens to the city if left to the waderas of PPP. They have tried their best to convert the city into a khandar like Larkhana and pretty much succeeded. MQM have always worked for the city and you can see a marked improvement in it after their rule.


However, their target killing, bhata-khori and overall deshatgardi is too hard to ignore.

 

[hussain.r97]

Even without a named candidate MQM is quite ahead. However, I don't think we can rule out Vawda just yet. He is quite rich and has the resources to run a great campaign. Furthermore, he can also bank on a wave of PTI popularity as we get closer to the election date.

I'd say the end result will be closer than this survey. MQM might win but it won't be a walk in the park as depicted here.

35% is a really low result for MQM compared to previous years, they would normally expect to be over 50%. The fact that Shahbaz Sharif is running on this seat doesn't really help PTI, otherwise I would say it would be much closer. I would be really interested in seeing what the situation is in other Karachi constituencies, seats like NA-256, NA-254, NA-251, NA-244 will give a much better idea of where PTI stands in Karachi.

 

[hussain.r97]

Lyari will be the usual landslide.

 

[hussain.r97]

Imran Khan and Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui running neck in neck. The margin of error is 5%, so they are both within the margin of error. This is going to be one to watch.

 

[hussain.r97]

Left out of much of the discussion in the lead up to the election is how various demographic groups will behave. Who are the poor voting for? How will women voters vote? Do religious minorities have a role to play? We broke down the results of our national poll conducted from June 22-24 to discover what the voting opinion looks based on gender, religion/religious sect, age, income group and education. First, we are looking at how gender influences voting opinion in the upcoming election. Overall, PTI performs better amongst men whereas PPP and PML(N) perform better amongst women, although the difference is not significantly high for any of the three major parties.

Both PML-N and PPP having higher support among female voters while PTI registers higher support among men.

 

[hussain.r97]

Imran Khan and Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui running neck in neck. The margin of error is 5%, so they are both within the margin of error. This is going to be one to watch.

Apparantly this poll was conducted a few days ago, but the actual MQM-P candidate will be Ali Raza Abidi. Don't think it will make a huge difference as MQM vote is mostly party vote rather than candidate vote.

 

[hussain.r97]

I have absolutely no doubt that MQM-P will emerge as the single largest party in Karachi, however each passing day is making me think that MQM may not even suffer any significant losses. Reflecting on these surveys, MQM have definitely lost support but they are still winning. The biggest issue is that while MQM are only registering around 30-35% on most seats (compared to the usual crushing margins), the opposing vote is split between multiple parties.

PTI have failed to capitalize on a fractured MQM while PPP have taken full advantage, and it shows with PPP bagging a significant share of votes on every seat while PTI are similar to 2013. The thing that is hurting PTI the most is the emergence of PSP. I personally know many people from Karachi who would vote for PTI but are now voting for PSP due to the development projects Mustafa Kamal undertook during Musharraf's era. PSP won't win more than 1 seat, but they are denting PTI's votebank.

 

[hussain.r97]

Next, we are looking at how religious sect/religion can influence voter behavior. Historically, the Shia and minority vote had been seen as key to PPP's electoral chances, whereas PML(N) would depend on a wide margin amongst the Sunni majority to win elections. The emergence of PTI has significantly damaged both PML(N)'s Sunni constituency as well as PPP's Shia constituency, however, PPP's surprisingly still does really well amongst non-Muslims, as a majority of non-Muslim Pakistanis are Hindus living in rural Sindh. PTI, for its part, can thank Shia voters for its edge in the popular vote, as it is tied with the PML(N) for the Sunni vote.

 

[PakWarrior]

I have absolutely no doubt that MQM-P will emerge as the single largest party in Karachi, however each passing day is making me think that MQM may not even suffer any significant losses. Reflecting on these surveys, MQM have definitely lost support but they are still winning. The biggest issue is that while MQM are only registering around 30-35% on most seats (compared to the usual crushing margins), the opposing vote is split between multiple parties.

PTI have failed to capitalize on a fractured MQM while PPP have taken full advantage, and it shows with PPP bagging a significant share of votes on every seat while PTI are similar to 2013. The thing that is hurting PTI the most is the emergence of PSP. I personally know many people from Karachi who would vote for PTI but are now voting for PSP due to the development projects Mustafa Kamal undertook during Musharraf's era. PSP won't win more than 1 seat, but they are denting PTI's votebank.

I completely agree with you Hussain Bro, excellent analysis.

Imran has made a huge blunder in Karachi. It was a MASSIVE opportunity to capitalize on MQM's vulnerability and intra party problems. But Imran and JKT spent alot of time concentrating on Punjab electables (which is fine and was needed, I have no criticism here) and was lackadaisical in his approach on Karachi. A big big mistake in my opinion.

He was never going to clean sweep Karachi but should have really made inroads here.

Too many people speaking in Imran's ear telling him to do this or not do that and most of these people have got it wrong. You can't blame Imran but he had alot of time to gain ground in Karachi and other places.

 

[PakWarrior]

Apparantly this poll was conducted a few days ago, but the actual MQM-P candidate will be Ali Raza Abidi. Don't think it will make a huge difference as MQM vote is mostly party vote rather than candidate vote.

I predict MQM will win this despite Imran standing here and it being so close.

MQM will use all the tricks in the book here to get their man across the line.

 

[PakWarrior]

Lyari will be the usual landslide.

No doubt about it.

 

[hussain.r97]

I predict MQM will win this despite Imran standing here and it being so close.

MQM will use all the tricks in the book here to get their man across the line.

Another thing going against PTI in NA-243 is Shehla Raza. She is very well respected and reasonably popular amongst the educated middle class Urdu speaking population. I get the feeling that the traditional parties won't mind a status quo in Karachi. For them, MQM sweeping Karachi is a much better result than PTI taking a few seats here and there.

 

[hussain.r97]

In most democracies, income is considered the most likely determinant of a voter's decision. In Pakistan, many people have historically associated the PML(N) with the middle and upper middle class, as PPP depended on a significant support base amongst the poor to win elections. PTI for much of the past few years has had a reputation for being popular amongst the rich and well to do, but with little support elsewhere. The upcoming election might yet prove that perception wrong. While PTI has a clear lead amongst upper middle/ upper income voters, it's also leading amongst middle income voters and polling an impressive 24% amongst low income voters. Both PPP and PML(N) fare best amongst poor voters, whereas PTI fares best amongst upper middle/ upper income voters.

 

[hadi123]

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on Friday announced an extension in polling time for upcoming General Election by an hour. The polling will now begin at 8am and end at 6pm instead of the usual 5pm, an ECP press release said.

The purpose of the extension is to ensure greater participation of voters in the polling process, the ECP said.

The move comes days after the ECP rejected Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf's (PTI) plea to extend polling hours until 8pm saying that the timings were ordained by the law and there was no need for them to be extended.

Separately, the ECP issued notice to PML-N Quaid Nawaz Sharif to appear before the commission in a petition arguing the name of the party cannot contain the name of a disqualified person.

Nawaz, who was disqualified via the Panamagate verdict last year and later removed from his own party's presidency, has been asked to appear on July 9.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1416834/ecp-extends-polling-time-till-6pm

 

[the Great Khan]

Actually I interpret that graph as PTI having significant support across all income groups..

 

[hussain.r97]

Age also plays an important role. PTI has often taken credit for being the sole representative of the burgeoning and increasingly numerically significant young voters in Pakistan. However, other parties have responded to the demographic change by courting young voters through tall promises. However, PTI enjoys a significant lead amongst voters under and 30 (36%-26%), and ties the PML(N) amongst voters over 30 (both at 26%). PPP, with the youngest leader of the three party leaders, performs significantly worse amongst younger voters compared to voters over 30.

 

[hussain.r97]

Education is also an important factor in voting decision. Typically, less educated voters have tended to support PPP and smaller religious parties, with more educated voters opting for PML(N). With the emergence of PTI, the education-voter behavior has also significantly changed. PML(N) is now likely to do better amongst less educated voters. PTI leads 39%-24% amongst voters with at least a bachelor degree. It's lead over PML(N) grows slimmer amongst other groups, just 4% amongst those with a Matric/Intermediate, and just 1% amongst illiterate/under Matric.

 

[PakWarrior]

Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has won his appeal. He will win his Murree seat comfortably.

 

[Waseem]

Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has won his appeal. He will win his Murree seat comfortably.

Expected this and right decision as well, no doubt Khaqan is a corrupt person but no point singling him out when 99% others have been allowed to contest.

This is why i thought it was too early to revise the prediction, seat back with PMLN

 

[Mian]

Expected this and right decision as well, no doubt Khaqan is a corrupt person but no point singling him out when 99% others have been allowed to contest.

This is why i thought it was too early to revise the prediction, seat back with PMLN

Still lot of confusion on Chakwal seat

 

[Mian]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My decision to withdraw from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Elections2018?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Elections2018</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NA55?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NA55</a> and stand firm with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PTI?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PTI</a> ideology for a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NayaPakistan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NayaPakistan</a> Inshallah <a href="https://t.co/Lg5hS54Nl1">pic.twitter.com/Lg5hS54Nl1</a></p>— Malik Amin Aslam (@aminattock) <a href="https://twitter.com/aminattock/status/1012666171085262848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Syed1]

PTI is no where close to as popular as IK thinks.


Khan sahab is saying PTI will sweep elections but all polls and surveys are predicting 50-50 contest if not 55-45 to Noon league.

 

[Syed1]

Apparantly this poll was conducted a few days ago, but the actual MQM-P candidate will be Ali Raza Abidi. Don't think it will make a huge difference as MQM vote is mostly party vote rather than candidate vote.

IK is losing to some nobody in Karachi



They need to do seat adjustment with PSP so that they can get some of their votes to bridge the gap. All of a sudden I'm not very optimistic about the upcoming elections. It might be the recent surveys, PTI being in dormant mode or the entire media working against IK - it has made me think that PTI might not get more than 60-70 seats.

 

[Strike!]

What is this fiasco in NA-64 PTI has committed.

 

[Waseem]

Still lot of confusion on Chakwal seat

I have absolutely no idea what is happening there, way too many theories floating on Twitter, why would they take back tickets from them? This is quite insane what they are doing with this, i thought this was done deal and we don't even have alternative option so why would they bring him in last minute, award ticket and then take the ticket back??

 

[Waseem]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My decision to withdraw from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Elections2018?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Elections2018</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NA55?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NA55</a> and stand firm with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PTI?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PTI</a> ideology for a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NayaPakistan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NayaPakistan</a> Inshallah <a href="https://t.co/Lg5hS54Nl1">pic.twitter.com/Lg5hS54Nl1</a></p>— Malik Amin Aslam (@aminattock) <a href="https://twitter.com/aminattock/status/1012666171085262848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I feel so sorry for Malik Amin Aslam, he clearly looks disappointed in this video and the fact that even considered contesting Independently is quite sad because he has one of the stars for PTI and what is even worse is he has his personal voterbank and has full capability to win the seat on his own with his personal votebank and increased popularity of PTI.

 

[saeedhk]

According to a newspaper, a deal between the Sharif family and the military establishment has been struck.

-Maryam will be allowed to contest elections but will only return to Pakistan after the elections.

-Nawaz will stay out of Pakistan and of PML-N’s affairs.

-Nawaz and Maryam will stop anti-judiciary and anti-establishment rants.

-In return, Shahbaz Sharif will get something from this elections.

 

[saeedhk]

Did PTI took back party ticket from Sardar Ghulam Abbas?

This is a confirmed seat for PTI. Only PTI can defeat and demoralise PTI. Idiotic decision.

 

[Mian]

I have absolutely no idea what is happening there, way too many theories floating on Twitter, why would they take back tickets from them? This is quite insane what they are doing with this, i thought this was done deal and we don't even have alternative option so why would they bring him in last minute, award ticket and then take the ticket back??

Lot of conflicting reports from Chakwal let's wait for a day or two

 

[DRsohail]

PTI is no where close to as popular as IK thinks.


Khan sahab is saying PTI will sweep elections but all polls and surveys are predicting 50-50 contest if not 55-45 to Noon league.

wait for few days when IK start campaign it will get better.

 

[Mian]

I feel so sorry for Malik Amin Aslam, he clearly looks disappointed in this video and the fact that even considered contesting Independently is quite sad because he has one of the stars for PTI and what is even worse is he has his personal voterbank and has full capability to win the seat on his own with his personal votebank and increased popularity of PTI.

Yea he is one of those candidates you can actually call nazryatis who sacrificed for the party. Unfortunate decision but NA55 is a confirmed seat for PTI now

 

[Mian]

Is this true? i had this thought and it looks like its happening

 

[awan_from_soon]

What is this fiasco in NA-64 PTI has committed.

At present it seems like PTI is working against themselves. They just don't look in the mood to win a good seat count with the mockery they are making of their campaign.

 

[Mian]

Express News also started these surveys.

 

[Mian]

At present it seems like PTI is working against themselves. They just don't look in the mood to win a good seat count with the mockery they are making of their campaign.

There are multiple reports some elements in the party are playing on both sides and are in contact with PPP they want to make sure PTI dont get clear majority and is dependent on PPP to form government so they can field another PM candidate instead of IK. And yes according to those theories the PM candidate is SMQ and he is acceptable to PPP.

 

[Mian]

I am starting to believe SMQ is a mole in PTI and all those who came from PPP are on board with him and will show their power soon as a group. Even in 2013 SMQ tried his best to give ticket to all his old buddies switching to PTI from PPP like Sohna, Samsaam etc

 

[PakWarrior]

Guys I can assure you that PTI is still on course to perform very well and inshallah form goverment despite the few hiccups over the last few days.

I am hearing from friends and relatives from many Punjabi constituencies that despite the fact that PMLN is still strong, that a huge wave in favour of PTI is building.

 

[DRsohail]

Express News also started these surveys.

How are the things going on.Unfortunately i am out of the country and will miss the most important elections in our history.

 

[Mian]

How are the things going on.Unfortunately i am out of the country and will miss the most important elections in our history.

Things are looking good but we need a massive campaign in next 25 days!

 

[Mian]

Guys I can assure you that PTI is still on course to perform very well and inshallah form goverment despite the few hiccups over the last few days.

I am hearing from friends and relatives from many Punjabi constituencies that despite the fact that PMLN is still strong, that a huge wave in favour of PTI is building.

I noticed same in Punjab but these groupings within party are boiling my blood we were on path to get clear majority but some of these stupid decision and still no campaign are creating chaos on ground.

 

[Mian]

In all these negative news we missed the joining of Raja Basharat from Rawalpindi and he got a PP ticket. Another boost to PTI in NA59.

 

[DRsohail]

Things are looking good but we need a massive campaign in next 25 days!

Our candidates should not wait for the lion to come and rescue them.They should do it by themselves.

 

[DRsohail]

In all these negative news we missed the joining of Raja Basharat from Rawalpindi and he got a PP ticket. Another boost to PTI in NA59.

I think we are strong in Rawalpinidi.And upper dir things are getting good.Sahibazada Tariqullah cousin is working hard to defeat him....i see a very close contest bw the two.

 

[Strike!]

 

[Mian]

Our candidates should not wait for the lion to come and rescue them.They should do it by themselves.

Candidates are doing it from weeks but to create a wave throughout country or at least in Punjab you need Khan!

 

[Mian]

I think we are strong in Rawalpinidi.And upper dir things are getting good.Sahibazada Tariqullah cousin is working hard to defeat him....i see a very close contest bw the two.

That's great we need to gain some new seats from KP that we lost in 2013

 

[DRsohail]

View attachment 82570

Girti hoi corruption ki diwaar ko aik dakaa awr do.

 

[Strike!]

 

[MachoKhan]

Wth man, whats the point of forming government with ppp. I also heard from couple of ppl that army wants that since they dont want to give full authority to imran. Anyone wanna confirm this ? Also the deal between nawaz and army confirm? Could that also mean that shehbaz will be pm

 

[Alamgeer]

Meanwhile Amir liaqat bhai got beaten up by voters in karachi.

 

[Mian]

Meanwhile Amir liaqat bhai got beaten up by voters in karachi.

Is there any footage? I heard not him but one of his worker was beaten and that too by tehreek e labaik workers.

 

[waqar goraya]

Zulfiqar Ali Khan has been nominated on NA-64, according to the website. I don't know how PTI came to this point in this constituency. Ghulam Abbas was a confirm seat.

 

[waqar goraya]

Polling time has been extended by one hour.

Former MNA from Kasur has been put behind bars for one month, which disqualifies him for the elections.

 

[waqar goraya]

Another thing going against PTI in NA-243 is Shehla Raza. She is very well respected and reasonably popular amongst the educated middle class Urdu speaking population. I get the feeling that the traditional parties won't mind a status quo in Karachi. For them, MQM sweeping Karachi is a much better result than PTI taking a few seats here and there.

We were always expecting 1-2 seat for PTI in Karachi. You showed us green pastures by estimating at least 4-5 seats of PTI.

 

[awan_from_soon]

We were always expecting 1-2 seat for PTI in Karachi. You showed us green pastures by estimating at least 4-5 seats of PTI.

Yeah, things are looking bleak in Karachi at present but there is still time for a rigorous campaign to change the outcome. Faisal Vawda/Sohail Awan, Haleem Adil/Saif Mehsud, Sardar Aziz, and Aamir Liaqat are running energetic campaigns. They can turn their seats around in no time if they continue on building momentum.

I am starting to believe SMQ is a mole in PTI and all those who came from PPP are on board with him and will show their power soon as a group. Even in 2013 SMQ tried his best to give ticket to all his old buddies switching to PTI from PPP like Sohna, Samsaam etc

I don't think we are at point to deem SMQ a mole. He may have taken some weird decisions but I think he is just consolidating his hold on the party being VC - a hold that is being threatened by JKT.

I think PTI is still in a strong position, once this whole ticket fiasco comes to end post 30 June, things will become clearer by the day.

Also what is up with Zulfiqar Khan for NA-64? Is he Sardar Ghulam's covering candidate given the disqualification?

 

[Mian]

I don't think we are at point to deem SMQ a mole. He may have taken some weird decisions but I think he is just consolidating his hold on the party being VC - a hold that is being threatened by JKT.

I think PTI is still in a strong position, once this whole ticket fiasco comes to end post 30 June, things will become clearer by the day.

Also what is up with Zulfiqar Khan for NA-64? Is he Sardar Ghulam's covering candidate given the disqualification?

I hope you are right because this report came through different sources and anchors/journos so there must be some weight in it.

We need at least 45% of Punjab seats to have a shot at forming govt and need to keep PMLN below 40% while the rest of 15% goes to Ind, PPP, PMLQ etc

There are so many conflicted reports but i think Sardar is still on board and Pervez Ellahi also called IK yesterday regarding Chakwal issue so i guess thing will be fixed in a day or two. And no he isn't his covering candidate he was PMLN candidate and was given PTI ticket at the last minute i think RO rejected his application too.

 

[awan_from_soon]

I hope you are right because this report came through different sources and anchors/journos so there must be some weight in it.

We need at least 45% of Punjab seats to have a shot at forming govt and need to keep PMLN below 40% while the rest of 15% goes to Ind, PPP, PMLQ etc

There are so many conflicted reports but i think Sardar is still on board and Pervez Ellahi also called IK yesterday regarding Chakwal issue so i guess thing will be fixed in a day or two. And no he isn't his covering candidate he was PMLN candidat and was given PTI ticket at the last minute i think RO rejected his application too.

Giving ticket to a PMLN candidate, in haste, is worse than having no ticket in that constituency. For a PTI victory in Chakwal, the support of Sardar Ghulam Abbass is a must. He is a true heavyweight of the region. I hope he is still on board. Did a bit of digging and Sardar Zulfiqar and him are on enmity terms. Things don't look good.

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">لاہور:کرکٹرمصباح الحق کااین اے131پرپی پی کےامیدوارعاصم محمودکی حمایت کااعلان<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Abbtakk?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Abbtakk</a></p>— AbbTakk (@AbbTakk) <a href="https://twitter.com/AbbTakk/status/1012742993281986561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/AbbTakk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AbbTakk</a> should be ashamed of spreading rumours like that.I think they are trying to get a legal notice. <a href="https://t.co/ukrbAGsE1k">https://t.co/ukrbAGsE1k</a></p>— Misbah Ul Haq (@captainmisbahpk) <a href="https://twitter.com/captainmisbahpk/status/1012820448487276546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Loralai]

Any update on PTI's manifesto? Can someone please share it here?

 

[Extra_Cover]

Any update on PTI's manifesto? Can someone please share it here?

It is supposed to be released on 5th/6th July, Imran said that in one of his latest interviews

 

[Mian]

Some major updates today:

Sardar Abbas is on board and will support PTI and Pervez Ellahi on all 4 PP and NA65 seats of Chakwal and he will decide NA64 support when his verdict comes in a day or two.

3/4 more MNA/MPA ticket holders of PMLN from South Punjab return their tickets and decide to go Independent.

Faisal Karim Kundi of PPP withdraw his papers from DI Khan in favor of PTI candidate Dawar Kundi and Fazlu is up for a tough fight.

Groupings in MMA on tickets and on the issue of supporting Shahbaz on Swat seat.

Ch Nisar applied for Jeep symbol and looking at him all those going Independent in Punjab are applying for Jeep symbol and this can result in all of them getting together under the Umbrella of Ch Nisar later and can play a major role when next govt is formed.

Confusion within PMLN camp after yesterday statement of Shahbaz clearly showing soft corner for Establishment so now PMLN voters and workers are not sure ke izat ko vote deni ye ya boots ko.

 

[hussain.r97]

Some major updates today:

Sardar Abbas is on board and will support PTI and Pervez Ellahi on all 4 PP and NA65 seats of Chakwal and he will decide NA64 support when his verdict comes in a day or two.

3/4 more MNA/MPA ticket holders of PMLN from South Punjab return their tickets and decide to go Independent.

Faisal Karim Kundi of PPP withdraw his papers from DI Khan in favor of PTI candidate Dawar Kundi and Fazlu is up for a tough fight.

Groupings in MMA on tickets and on the issue of supporting Shahbaz on Swat seat.

Ch Nisar applied for Jeep symbol and looking at him all those going Independent in Punjab are applying for Jeep symbol and this can result in all of them getting together under the Umbrella of Ch Nisar later and can play a major role when next govt is formed.

Confusion within PMLN camp after yesterday statement of Shahbaz clearly showing soft corner for Establishment so now PMLN voters and workers are not sure ke izat ko vote deni ye ya boots ko.

5 apparantly - https://tribune.com.pk/story/1746566/1-five-pml-n-candidates-south-punjab-return-party-tickets/

All of them using the jeep symbol.

 

[Mian]

5 apparantly - https://tribune.com.pk/story/1746566/1-five-pml-n-candidates-south-punjab-return-party-tickets/

All of them using the jeep symbol.

Jeep symbol is going to be tricky it can give a hint of being close to Army specially Ch Nisar is using it

 

[hussain.r97]

We were always expecting 1-2 seat for PTI in Karachi. You showed us green pastures by estimating at least 4-5 seats of PTI.

PTi were poised for 4-5 seats up until last month, but unforunately they've only really started campaigning now. Had they started working last month, things would be different now. Anyway, I still think PTI will win at least 3 seats, but 4-5 is still not out of reach.

 

[Mian]

Is it only me or anyone else think PMLN tactic of using these Imran videos of mazarat and madina are going to backfire badly and can activate silent Bralevi votebank of Punjab in PTI favor?

 

[Mian]

PMLN ship in Jhang already sunk or what? After Sheikh Waqas Akram now PMLN district president chose to go Independent and selected Chicken as symbol instead of Shaerrr

 

[Mian]

Tell me this is a fake news? Maryam decide to go Independent in NA125 and on Shaer in NA127?

 

[hussain.r97]

Is it only me or anyone else think PMLN tactic of using these Imran videos of mazarat and madina are going to backfire badly and can activate silent Bralevi votebank of Punjab in PTI favor?

PML-N aren't being smart about this. Pakistan is a deeply polarised country, and not everyone subscribes to the same views. By appeasing one segment of society, they may just be shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[Mian]

PML-N aren't being smart about this. Pakistan is a deeply polarised country, and not everyone subscribes to the same views. By appeasing one segment of society, they may just be shooting themselves in the foot.

They may succeed in stopping Wahabi/Ahl e hadees and Deobani swing voter from voting for PTI but it will result in massive support from Bralevi and Shia sects in favor of PTI. Bralevis are the biggest sect of Pak and now they will not be able to blame PTI if they start using Khatam e Nabuwat card at the national level against them in every jalsa. Media sided with PMLN against IK in using this religious issue and now they will find it hard to attack PTI when they start using same tactic against PMLN

 

[hussain.r97]

They may succeed in stopping Wahabi/Ahl e hadees and Deobani swing voter from voting for PTI but it will result in massive support from Bralevi and Shia sects in favor of PTI. Bralevis are the biggest sect of Pak and now they will not be able to blame PTI if they start using Khatam e Nabuwat card at the national level against them in every jalsa. Media sided with PMLN against IK in using this religious issue and now they will find it hard to attack PTI when they start using same tactic against PMLN

Shias are already overwhelming voting for PTI, the survey I posted here shows that too, and pretty much everyone I know are voting for PTI. These tactics by PML-N may just go against them because the Wahabi/Ahl e Hadees/Deobandis weren't really going to vote for PTI anyway.

 

[Mian]

Shias are already overwhelming voting for PTI, the survey I posted here shows that too, and pretty much everyone I know are voting for PTI. These tactics by PML-N may just go against them because the Wahabi/Ahl e Hadees/Deobandis weren't really going to vote for PTI anyway.

Yea and PMLN also blamed PTI of being funded by Iran and Shias. MWM is in alliance with PTI and i think PTI left one Bhakkar seat for MQM in Punjab

 

[Mian]

 

[Hermoine Green]

The (PML-N) received a major setback in NA-16 Abbottabad-II due to Sardar Mahtab Ahmed Khan's decision to withdraw his son Sardar Shehryar Khan from the race.

 

[Hermoine Green]

The (PML-N) received a major setback in NA-16 Abbottabad-II due to Sardar Mahtab Ahmed Khan's decision to withdraw his son Sardar Shehryar Khan from the race.

Should be an easy victory to Mr. Jadoon PTI

 

[Mian]

The (PML-N) received a major setback in NA-16 Abbottabad-II due to Sardar Mahtab Ahmed Khan's decision to withdraw his son Sardar Shehryar Khan from the race.

Should be an easy victory to Mr. Jadoon PTI

on other seat of Abbottabad i heard Sardar Yaqub of PTI is going Ind so chances of Ali Asghar Khan decrease more?

 

[hussain.r97]

Looks like they are imploding from within ...

 

[Mian]

Looks like they are imploding from within ...

This will discourage their voters and workers more even on seats where they are strong!

 

[Strike!]

All of these Independents are actually still in cahoots with N league, they have assured Shahbaz sharif of joining PMLN after winning.

 

[hussain.r97]

An interesting way to look at the voting intention for various parties for the upcoming elections is to look into how those voters voted in recent elections. Which party has PTI taken the most votes from? Has PML(N)'s vote remained stagnant? We will first be looking at how voters who voted in 2008 are planning to vote this time around. As is common perception, PTI has caused the most damage to the PPP, where amongst its 2008 voters it can expect to win more votes in the upcoming election than the PPP itself. It has the highest share of the vote amongst PPP's 2008 voters, but also wins a significant 26% amongst 2008 PML(N) voters and 28% amongst 2008 PML (Q) voters. PML(N) expectedly maintain almost 60% of its 2008 voter base and also wins the most PML(Q) votes.