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Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

Which will be the top party after the upcoming general elections?

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mmkextreme_1 said:
Agreed.

This is my number one concern. I can just see swing voters with the mindset, "yaar anu kandhi na leader, wapis aya hei apni awam wasi...agar chor hundha yan dhar pok hundha, wapis na aandha" sadly this is the mentality in Pakistan and especially where N leagues vote banks is.
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It could cost IK 10-15 seats in Punjab.

Would have been better if the verdict had been announced after the election.

Even Shahbaz will not be happy with Nawaz being a superhero in the Punjab yet again.
 
Roshan Pakistan actually did a very interesting analysis on the effect of the Avenfield verdict.

What they found from their last survey was that the verdict only made PML-N voters more enthusiastic, and hence a few PML-N leaning non voters are now likely to vote. HOWEVER, the verdict has also made PTI leaning non voters disgruntled, and also more likely to vote.

What was observed was that the gap between PML-N voters and non voters closed a little, but so did the gap between PTI voters and non voters. The PTI gap in fact closed more than the PML-N gap. Hence, the verdict has had almost no effect on the election.
 
hussain.r97 said:
Roshan Pakistan actually did a very interesting analysis on the effect of the Avenfield verdict.

What they found from their last survey was that the verdict only made PML-N voters more enthusiastic, and hence a few PML-N leaning non voters are now likely to vote. HOWEVER, the verdict has also made PTI leaning non voters disgruntled, and also more likely to vote.

What was observed was that the gap between PML-N voters and non voters closed a little, but so did the gap between PTI voters and non voters. The PTI gap in fact closed more than the PML-N gap. Hence, the verdict has had almost no effect on the election.
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In summary as i predicted it has made no difference. These Nooras are not go to change, and the people that hate them will hate them a little more.
 
The only way for PTI to form a majority government is for the swing voters factor and an increased youth voter turn out which would favor them. Otherwise PTI will most likely form a weak coalition government in center with N league still retaining Punjab.
 
The Avenfield verdict hasn’t made an impact we would’ve liked. It surely has brought in swing voters in favor of PTI.

But it has also increased the PMLN supporter’s enthusiasm even more than before as they feel only Nawaz is being targeted. This means a higher voter turn out for N league.

On a positive note, the verdict also increased enthusiasm levels of PTI supporters as they got him behind bars. I expect a higher turnout from both sides.

All in all, the verdict hasn’t had a huge impact which I was expecting. In any other country, it would mean the end but this is Pakistan. Also, sympathy votes seem to be coming into play since his return.
 
What do you guys think about the issue of non democratic forces trying to influence the results?
 
If Imran is serious about tackling corruption then he has to take the big step and call for scrutiny of leading figures in the army.

Otherwise this clearly appears to be orchestrated by higher forces.

PML N supporters have gained a lot of strength from this verdict, they are now positioning themselves (somewhat ironically) as the protectors of democracy against the Army.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In Multan, <a href="https://twitter.com/SMQureshiPTI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SMQureshiPTI</a> highly likely to win the constituency he won by a smaller margin in 2013. <a href="https://t.co/1wnBjmvHY7">pic.twitter.com/1wnBjmvHY7</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018183612594819072?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">PPP looks likely to hang on to one of its most vulnerable seats it had won in 2013. <a href="https://t.co/3gs2NnaPxj">pic.twitter.com/3gs2NnaPxj</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018309779607965696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The only female federal Minister in the outgoing cabinet faces a tough fight in Hafizabad. <a href="https://t.co/YA2bjEAvra">pic.twitter.com/YA2bjEAvra</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018438356752007168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Outgoing leader of the opposition can win big in his Sukkur constituency. <a href="https://t.co/9bpi2VAUUX">pic.twitter.com/9bpi2VAUUX</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018444966912290817?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In one of the most closely watched races of the year, AMLP's <a href="https://twitter.com/ShkhRasheed?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ShkhRasheed</a> seems likely to hang on to <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ImranKhanPTI</a>'s constituency, beating PML(N) stalwart Hanif Abbasi. <a href="https://t.co/7MUuJYzuRv">pic.twitter.com/7MUuJYzuRv</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018454233560109058?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In Sialkot V, PML(N) incumbent likely to retain his seat. <a href="https://t.co/79OlFLWT2c">pic.twitter.com/79OlFLWT2c</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018473173061455873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In Haripur, grandson of former President Ayub Khan, Omar Khan, running ahead of the PML(N) candidate. <a href="https://t.co/4gdExCyzXw">pic.twitter.com/4gdExCyzXw</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018484036237488128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Although GDA is unlikely to make a breakthrough in Sindh with PPP polling better than it did in 2013, NA 199 is a safe seat for the party, where Ghous Mehar has won every election since 1997. <a href="https://t.co/pbNpOZvwRv">pic.twitter.com/pbNpOZvwRv</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018513048137543680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In Faisalabad, outgoing PML(N) now running on PTI ticket behind PML(N)'s Rana Sana Ullah Khan. <a href="https://t.co/UpWIrahLd3">pic.twitter.com/UpWIrahLd3</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018526584884559872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
DrSchultz said:
What do you guys think about the issue of non democratic forces trying to influence the results?
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I have always hated the role of International Establishment helping one of PPP or PML-N. This should definitely be stopped and they shouldn't meddle in our country affairs.
 
DrSchultz said:
What do you guys think about the issue of non democratic forces trying to influence the results?
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Absolutely should not happen, the army should simply just do its job of defending the country, they have no right to meddle in the democratic affairs of the country. I absolutely support holding the army officers that meddled in previous elections to account, and will continue to believe that anyone who unconstitutionally and unlawfully meddles in the democratic affairs of the country should be punished.
 
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hussain.r97 said:
Absolutely should not happen, the army should simply just do its job of defending the country, they have no right to meddle in the democratic affairs of the country. I absolutely support holding the army officers that meddled in previous elections to account, and will continue to believe that anyone who unconstitutionally and unlawfully meddles in the democratic affairs of the country should be punished.
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I agree with you but it is clear that the Army is once again involving itself and causing trouble for the nation. I don't think they will ever learn.
 
Loralai said:
I agree with you but it is clear that the Army is once again involving itself and causing trouble for the nation. I don't think they will ever learn.
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Putting a corrupt PM behind bars isnt causing trouble for the Nation. What about reducing us to a debt ridden basket case economy in ten years? why dont you lot talk about that? Or what about the terrorists supported by our neighbours and former PM who have killed thousands? why dont you talk abou that? no hur cheeze Army army..jub Mulk Syria ki tara tabaa ho jayga phir roana bheat kay..phir be army ki fault ho gi..
 
hussain.r97 said:
Absolutely should not happen, the army should simply just do its job of defending the country, they have no right to meddle in the democratic affairs of the country. I absolutely support holding the army officers that meddled in previous elections to account, and will continue to believe that anyone who unconstitutionally and unlawfully meddles in the democratic affairs of the country should be punished.
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No they were ok and Gen kiyani is a good man for doing so, what these guys are worried about is if they do it to help anyone else, then its anti democratic. I dare any Noora to show me a quote where NS or the leadership was unhappy with the army helping them in 2013, or for that matter any Noora on the forum.
 
DrSchultz said:
What do you guys think about the issue of non democratic forces trying to influence the results?
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Yup always been against it, I am sure you are referring to Zia first then the army setting up Nawaz to overthrow Benazir in 2 governments. Or maybe you're referring to Kayani meddling in 2013.
 
Loralai said:
I agree with you but it is clear that the Army is once again involving itself and causing trouble for the nation. I don't think they will ever learn.
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The word is out that Money Laundering Network has connections, directly or indirectly, with banned terrorist organisations. Every supporter of PMLn should be more worried if courts aren't disclosing evidences of corruption against Sharifs. They can't disclose because of some serious global backlash expected against Pakistan.

If politicians deal with parties who in turn have connections with terrorist organisations, we can't risk masses being at disposal of politicians.
 
Guys,

Having spoken to a few people on the ground and lot of people involved with several of the parties at different levels I've concluded the following as of today:


1. PTI will need a minimum of 70 seats from Punjab to form a government in the centre.

2.PMLN will need a minimum of 95 seats from Punjab to form a government in the centre.

3. Turnout of the youth vote may end up being the difference between a hung parliament and a clean PTI victory.

4. PMLN is still strong in Punjab but they have been dented. If their Jaahil vote bank comes out in record numbers then this will seriously hurt PTI in Punjab.

5. If Nawaz and Maryam get bail in the next two days this will reinvigorate the PMLN vote bank and a few strong Jalsas by the Father and Daughter pair before the 25th will breathe new life into the PMLN.

6. If PTI workers fail to get voters to come out on the 25th then this will damage them. They made this mistake 5 years ago and it cost them.

7. A record number of independents will win seats this time. This will damage PMLN but also could hurt PTI.

8. Do not discount PMLN until the results start coming in. They could still win a significant number of seats and form a government with PMLN.

The above is a synopsis from ground reports.
 
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PMLN will still take Punjab.

They have a very tight grip over the province.

Avenfield has only made Noon league supporters feel more victimised and this has made them stronger.

Also, I've noticed a lot of harsh language towards N League supports on PP and in social media in general (nooras, jaahil, ***** eaters). I would have thought enlightened supporters of PTI would show a little more respect to their fellow citizens.
 
Loralai said:
PMLN will still take Punjab.

They have a very tight grip over the province.

Avenfield has only made Noon league supporters feel more victimised and this has made them stronger.

Also, I've noticed a lot of harsh language towards N League supports on PP and in social media in general (nooras, jaahil, ***** eaters). I would have thought enlightened supporters of PTI would show a little more respect to their fellow citizens.
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You my friend i guess forgot the language PMLN and their supporters used for PTI supporters and leadership in last 5 years? They are only getting it back now what they used to give to others.
 
Loralai said:
PMLN will still take Punjab.

They have a very tight grip over the province.

Avenfield has only made Noon league supporters feel more victimised and this has made them stronger.
.
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Can I ask where are you getting this information from? Or are you just saying it for the sake of it?

Avenfield hasn't made their supporters any more victimised or more stronger. This is not the case at all. Their supporters still remain in same numbers and with the same emotion now than they did before the verdict. They were going to vote for them regardless.

They don't have a very tight grip over the province at all. They have a good grip but a drastically weakened one.

Several of us in this thread have ground reports from Pakistan directly from the heart of the campaign. From many of the constituencies. That's why alot of people are appreciating this thread. Granted everybody has a favourite party but we will call it out as it is regardless of the party.

Read my 8 points above. It's from ground reports and it tells you that the election results are far from guaranteed for either party.
 
PakWarrior said:
Guys,

Having spoken to a few people on the ground and lot of people involved with several of the parties at different levels I've concluded the following as of today:


1. PTI will need a minimum of 70 seats from Punjab to form a government in the centre.

2.PMLN will need a minimum of 95 seats from Punjab to form a government in the centre.

3. Turnout of the youth vote may end up being the difference between a hung parliament and a clean PTI victory.

4. PMLN is still strong in Punjab but they have been dented. If their Jaahil vote bank comes out in record numbers then this will seriously hurt PTI in Punjab.

5. If Nawaz and Maryam get bail in the next two days this will reinvigorate the PMLN vote bank and a few strong Jalsas by the Father and Daughter pair before the 25th will breathe new life into the PMLN.

6. If PTI workers fail to get voters to come out on the 25th then this will damage them. They made this mistake 5 years ago and it cost them.

7. A record number of independents will win seats this time. This will damage PMLN but also could hurt PTI.

8. Do not discount PMLN until the results start coming in. They could still win a significant number of seats and form a government with PMLN.

The above is a synopsis from ground reports.
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Thanks, seems accruate. We need to make sure PTi voters come out in big numbers.
 
PakWarrior said:
Guys,

Having spoken to a few people on the ground and lot of people involved with several of the parties at different levels I've concluded the following as of today:


1. PTI will need a minimum of 70 seats from Punjab to form a government in the centre.

2.PMLN will need a minimum of 95 seats from Punjab to form a government in the centre.

3. Turnout of the youth vote may end up being the difference between a hung parliament and a clean PTI victory.

4. PMLN is still strong in Punjab but they have been dented. If their Jaahil vote bank comes out in record numbers then this will seriously hurt PTI in Punjab.

5. If Nawaz and Maryam get bail in the next two days this will reinvigorate the PMLN vote bank and a few strong Jalsas by the Father and Daughter pair before the 25th will breathe new life into the PMLN.

6. If PTI workers fail to get voters to come out on the 25th then this will damage them. They made this mistake 5 years ago and it cost them.

7. A record number of independents will win seats this time. This will damage PMLN but also could hurt PTI.

8. Do not discount PMLN until the results start coming in. They could still win a significant number of seats and form a government with PMLN.

The above is a synopsis from ground reports.
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Excellent points we need to fight till last ball without resting and if we can get the turnout close to 60% i can bet PTI will be in position to form government comfortably. We we need to make sure everyone we know visit the polling station that day.
 
Loralai said:
PMLN will still take Punjab.

They have a very tight grip over the province.

Avenfield has only made Noon league supporters feel more victimised and this has made them stronger.

Also, I've noticed a lot of harsh language towards N League supports on PP and in social media in general (nooras, jaahil, ***** eaters). I would have thought enlightened supporters of PTI would show a little more respect to their fellow citizens.
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The reality is that nothing can change the stupidity of these people and to be brutal, they are jahils- i dare anyone to explain why any honest, intelligent people would vote for a party led by a convicted crook.
 
PakWarrior said:
Can I ask where are you getting this information from? Or are you just saying it for the sake of it?

Avenfield hasn't made their supporters any more victimised or more stronger. This is not the case at all. Their supporters still remain in same numbers and with the same emotion now than they did before the verdict. They were going to vote for them regardless.

They don't have a very tight grip over the province at all. They have a good grip but a drastically weakened one.

Several of us in this thread have ground reports from Pakistan directly from the heart of the campaign. From many of the constituencies. That's why alot of people are appreciating this thread. Granted everybody has a favourite party but we will call it out as it is regardless of the party.

Read my 8 points above. It's from ground reports and it tells you that the election results are far from guaranteed for either party.
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He's getting his info from the Khalai Mukhlooq!!
 
Bewal Express said:
The reality is that nothing can change the stupidity of these people and to be brutal, they are jahils- i dare anyone to explain why any honest, intelligent people would vote for a party led by a convicted crook.
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The reality is that ballot boxes from GE-13 had Newspapers, Cinema tickets and bla bla. So much for stronghold of PMLn. From then onward, intelligence would tell us that success has many fathers and defeat is an orphan. If Victory shield is in another hand, intelligents will stand behind new victory.

If not for lousy ballot boxes, PMLn wouldn't have had as big a margin as they did. Couple this fact with PTI growth and electables in Punjab and we will see a different pattern in GE-18. Somewhat like 45:40 in favour of PTI and 15% being independents and others.
 
hussain.r97 said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In one of the most closely watched races of the year, AMLP's <a href="https://twitter.com/ShkhRasheed?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ShkhRasheed</a> seems likely to hang on to <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ImranKhanPTI</a>'s constituency, beating PML(N) stalwart Hanif Abbasi. <a href="https://t.co/7MUuJYzuRv">pic.twitter.com/7MUuJYzuRv</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@OpinionRoshan) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpinionRoshan/status/1018454233560109058?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Very interesting. What was the methodology for this survey? Were PTI voters counted in Sh Rashid's block?
 
Mian said:
You should thread isn't active like before from last couple of days

Where are all of you guys? 10 more days to go! [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=133397]WebGuru[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION]
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Lol busy in work-related stuff and preparations of my father's Hajj endeavor. He flew out yesterday. :)

The momentum is definitely not like 2013, the electioneering is not like it either. These elections seem subdued. I just hope the turnout doesn't fall below 50%. I'd like to see a 60%+ turnout for an interesting result.
 
awan_from_soon said:
Lol busy in work-related stuff and preparations of my father's Hajj endeavor. He flew out yesterday. :)

The momentum is definitely not like 2013, the electioneering is not like it either. These elections seem subdued. I just hope the turnout doesn't fall below 50%. I'd like to see a 60%+ turnout for an interesting result.
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You are right, the passion is little less - even within pakkay PTI jiyalay like myself and my friends circle in Pak, but this time there is more pragmatic optimism. A lot of people realize Khan is the best person to lead Pakistan at the moment and they intend to vote for him, and there is less need to go out and participate in political corner meetings when your vote is already decided.
 
Also last time the elections were held in early May, which gets hot but not as hot as June-July hence people are more likely to be indoors and not venture out in the tappti hoi dhoop too much.
 
IMO PTI should also focus on improving the election process once they get to office. Elections should always be held in Oct-Nov (unless subject to Ramzaan or Muharram). This way the slightly cooler months will allow for better electioneering and by that time the rainy season has also ended so less chance of rain playing spoil sport.
 
Syed1 said:
Also last time the elections were held in early May, which gets hot but not as hot as June-July hence people are more likely to be indoors and not venture out in the tappti hoi dhoop too much.
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True but a turnout of less than 50% can really hurt PTI chances so PTI should make sure ke voter ko ghar se bahir nikaalen
 
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Mian said:
True but a turnout of less than 50% can really PTI chances so PTI should make sure ke voter ko ghar se bahir nikaalen
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Don't have too much hope from burger bachas who will be enjoying day off in the middle of the week.
 
awan_from_soon said:
Lol busy in work-related stuff and preparations of my father's Hajj endeavor. He flew out yesterday. :)

The momentum is definitely not like 2013, the electioneering is not like it either. These elections seem subdued. I just hope the turnout doesn't fall below 50%. I'd like to see a 60%+ turnout for an interesting result.
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ALLAH unka Hajj qabool kere. Yea the feeling isn't same and PTI should prepare for voting day management we need to get voters out of their comfort homes on 25th July
 
Syed1 said:
Don't have too much hope from burger bachas who will be enjoying day off in the middle of the week.
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Dhernas and lockdown trained many burger bachas so i am expecting they will come out!
 
Syed1 said:
You are right, the passion is little less - even within pakkay PTI jiyalay like myself and my friends circle in Pak, but this time there is more pragmatic optimism. A lot of people realize Khan is the best person to lead Pakistan at the moment and they intend to vote for him, and there is less need to go out and participate in political corner meetings when your vote is already decided.
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Mian said:
ALLAH unka Hajj qabool kere. Yea the feeling isn't same and PTI should prepare for voting day management we need to get voters out of their comfort homes on 25th July
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Ameen. The feeling isn't the same because starry-eyed optimism has been replaced by a more pragmatic approach. Those who want to vote PTI will vote undeterred, as Syed1 has quite rightly pointed out in his post. The same feeling is in my circle of pro-PTI friends - PTI anthems might not be blaring from their cars, PTI flexes might not be on their rear windshields, and PTI flags might not be flying high on their balconies but they are definitely, 110%, going to wake up on 25th July and stamp that Bat! Insha Allah!
 
awan_from_soon said:
Ameen. The feeling isn't the same because starry-eyed optimism has been replaced by a more pragmatic approach. Those who want to vote PTI will vote undeterred, as Syed1 has quite rightly pointed out in his post. The same feeling is in my circle of pro-PTI friends - PTI anthems might not be blaring from their cars, PTI flexes might not be on their rear windshields, and PTI flags might not be flying high on their balconies but they are definitely, 110%, going to wake up on 25th July and stamp that Bat! Insha Allah!
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inshALLAH we need votes feeling hum 25 ke baad khud bana lenge her teraf :yk
 
Yeah just checked the twitter for Roshan Pakistan does not exist anymore and some jahil patwaris are running another twitter by the same name posting the "development" during Noon era.
 
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Guys some breaking news:

Heavy rain forecast throughout Pakistan next Wednesday on election day. All day rain in Punjab.

How will this affect voter turn out? I predict a low turn out. This won't be good for PTI.
 
Strike! said:
What happened to Roshan Pakistan's twitter? I see some idiot has taken over it.
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Oh so the account was renamed after getting hacked? I just unfollowed an account and i was wodnering when i followed this patwari account lol i guess wohi account tha jo rename or hack hua :)) the bio was something hybrid patwari and jiyala
 
PakWarrior said:
Guys some breaking news:

Heavy rain forecast throughout Pakistan next Wednesday on election day. All day rain in Punjab.

How will this affect voter turn out? I predict a low turn out. This won't be good for PTI.
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Depend on the rain and flood situation. In cities like Lahore and Karachi heavy rain means nobody gonan come on ships to vote
 
PakWarrior said:
Guys some breaking news:

Heavy rain forecast throughout Pakistan next Wednesday on election day. All day rain in Punjab.

How will this affect voter turn out? I predict a low turn out. This won't be good for PTI.
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I think there is precedence in the past where rains forced a delay right?
 
Nobody is going to accept the result if the turnout is severely low due to rain
 
Strike! said:
What happened to Roshan Pakistan's twitter? I see some idiot has taken over it.
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Syed1 said:
Yeah just checked the twitter for Roshan Pakistan does not exist anymore and some jahil patwaris are running another twitter by the same name posting the "development" during Noon era.
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Mian said:
Oh so the account was renamed after getting hacked? I just unfollowed an account and i was wodnering when i followed this patwari account lol i guess wohi account tha jo rename or hack hua :)) the bio was something hybrid patwari and jiyala
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I don't know what just happened, their website has disappeared too.
 
From what I know, Roshan were hired by one of the major and one of the minor parties to conduct these surveys. It is very possible that the party that hired them are losing in their polls, and thus, have asked them to stop publishing.
 
I have a question. What are the genuine reasons for partisan behaviour in Pakistani political spectrum? I mean if I understand correctly, the American political system have ideological differences between the democrats and the republicans, however on closer inspection I don’t see any ideological differences or at least diversity in political approaches among all the different political parties in Pakistan. So what distinguishes one political party from another?
 
hussain.r97 said:
From what I know, Roshan were hired by one of the major and one of the minor parties to conduct these surveys. It is very possible that the party that hired them are losing in their polls, and thus, have asked them to stop publishing.
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Yea the way they were working it wasn't a one man show and their work looked legit to me.
 
Angrez Pakistani said:
I have a question. What are the genuine reasons for partisan behaviour in Pakistani political spectrum? I mean if I understand correctly, the American political system have ideological differences between the democrats and the republicans, however on closer inspection I don’t see any ideological differences or at least diversity in political approaches among all the different political parties in Pakistan. So what distinguishes one political party from another?
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, the Pakistani public do not vote on ideology, nor can they vote on ideology due to lack of options. People vote based on "this guy fixed my street", "this guy is more honest", etc.

It's true, when you study the party policies and manifestos, PTI and PML-N actually have the same core policies. They are both centre-right parties. Pakistani politics is unfortunately not about right vs left, it is about right vs wrong.
 
Syed1 said:
You are right, the passion is little less - even within pakkay PTI jiyalay like myself and my friends circle in Pak, but this time there is more pragmatic optimism. A lot of people realize Khan is the best person to lead Pakistan at the moment and they intend to vote for him, and there is less need to go out and participate in political corner meetings when your vote is already decided.
Click to expand...


There is definitely less passion as compared to 2013.

I think PTI has turned into political party in 2018 from Tehreek (movement) in 2013. Tehreek will naturally attract passion from all sort of neutrals whereas party would not.

End result is "Tehreek got us 30 seats and party will get us around 80-100 seats"

At the end of the day, it is numbers that will enable Imran Khan to implement his agenda and that was the end goal of Tehreek (movement) anyway.
 
hussain.r97 said:
Unfortunately, the Pakistani public do not vote on ideology, nor can they vote on ideology due to lack of options. People vote based on "this guy fixed my street", "this guy is more honest", etc.

It's true, when you study the party policies and manifestos, PTI and PML-N actually have the same core policies. They are both centre-right parties. Pakistani politics is unfortunately not about right vs left, it is about right vs wrong.
Click to expand...

It's all about priorities, our main priority is not right or left right now, we need to completely change our direction and approach which is IMPOSSIBLE under PMLN or PPP.

Also, no one should forget what happened in 2008-2013 era. All the left leaning parties were in power:

PPP and MQM in federal & Sindh
ANP in KPK

These were one of our most disastrous years in history.

Need to think beyond this left-right thing and go back to basics first. These ideologies will develop once people get their basic necessities like education and health.
 
Waseem said:
It's all about priorities, our main priority is not right or left right now, we need to completely change our direction and approach which is IMPOSSIBLE under PMLN or PPP.

Also, no one should forget what happened in 2008-2013 era. All the left leaning parties were in power:

PPP and MQM in federal & Sindh
ANP in KPK

These were one of our most disastrous years in history.

Need to think beyond this left-right thing and go back to basics first. These ideologies will develop once people get their basic necessities like education and health.
Click to expand...

Absolutely agree. Things need to be cleaned up in the country, once the whole political scene is cleaned up, maybe we'll see the emergence of a genuine centre-left wing party in Pakistan. At this stage PPP are no longer viable, and AWP honestly seems too far to the left to be that genuine centre-left party.
 
Angrez Pakistani said:
I have a question. What are the genuine reasons for partisan behaviour in Pakistani political spectrum? I mean if I understand correctly, the American political system have ideological differences between the democrats and the republicans, however on closer inspection I don’t see any ideological differences or at least diversity in political approaches among all the different political parties in Pakistan. So what distinguishes one political party from another?
Click to expand...

The corrupt and non corrupt.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nadia Chaudhry, British Pakistani, central deputy info. secretary for <a href="https://twitter.com/PTIofficial?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PTIofficial</a> goes missing in Pakistan. Acc. to her lawyer, she was about to expose PTI leaders, Shah Mahmood Qureshi & Shah Farman, for alleged sexual assault. Why is no media covering her case? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RecoverNadia?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RecoverNadia</a> <a href="https://t.co/EabknuJKzT">pic.twitter.com/EabknuJKzT</a></p>— Kashif N Chaudhry (@KashifMD) <a href="https://twitter.com/KashifMD/status/1018919454225420289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 16, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
PakWarrior said:
Guys,

Having spoken to a few people on the ground and lot of people involved with several of the parties at different levels I've concluded the following as of today:


1. PTI will need a minimum of 70 seats from Punjab to form a government in the centre.

2.PMLN will need a minimum of 95 seats from Punjab to form a government in the centre.

3. Turnout of the youth vote may end up being the difference between a hung parliament and a clean PTI victory.

4. PMLN is still strong in Punjab but they have been dented. If their Jaahil vote bank comes out in record numbers then this will seriously hurt PTI in Punjab.

5. If Nawaz and Maryam get bail in the next two days this will reinvigorate the PMLN vote bank and a few strong Jalsas by the Father and Daughter pair before the 25th will breathe new life into the PMLN.

6. If PTI workers fail to get voters to come out on the 25th then this will damage them. They made this mistake 5 years ago and it cost them.

7. A record number of independents will win seats this time. This will damage PMLN but also could hurt PTI.

8. Do not discount PMLN until the results start coming in. They could still win a significant number of seats and form a government with PMLN.

The above is a synopsis from ground reports.
Click to expand...


How about the weather condition in the country?? do u think the scorching heat of july would hv any effect on the voter turn out...

On a side note, i m getting more and more nervous as the Dday nears. I hv waited for 5 yrs so eagerly for this day to see Imran khan becoming the PM of pakistan... :ik2
 
Roshan Pakistan just ceased to exist. No Twitter and Wordpress site. [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION] do you have any info?
 
shaaik said:
How about the weather condition in the country?? do u think the scorching heat of july would hv any effect on the voter turn out...

On a side note, i m getting more and more nervous as the Dday nears. I hv waited for 5 yrs so eagerly for this day to see Imran khan becoming the PM of pakistan... :ik2
Click to expand...

Absolutely no chance of it being hot next Wednesday. It's going to be cool and pleasant.

BUT rain and thunderstorms are predicted throughout Pakistan next Wednesday. This is what could affect voter turn out. Hopefully there will be sporadic showers on the day and not non stop heavy rain.
 
PakWarrior said:
Absolutely no chance of it being hot next Wednesday. It's going to be cool and pleasant.

BUT rain and thunderstorms are predicted throughout Pakistan next Wednesday. This is what could affect voter turn out. Hopefully there will be sporadic showers on the day and not non stop heavy rain.
Click to expand...

Sounds wonderful... I hope it doesn't rain cats and dogs though..

It seems even the heavens are conspiring against pmln..
 
Loralai said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nadia Chaudhry, British Pakistani, central deputy info. secretary for <a href="https://twitter.com/PTIofficial?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PTIofficial</a> goes missing in Pakistan. Acc. to her lawyer, she was about to expose PTI leaders, Shah Mahmood Qureshi & Shah Farman, for alleged sexual assault. Why is no media covering her case? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RecoverNadia?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RecoverNadia</a> <a href="https://t.co/EabknuJKzT">pic.twitter.com/EabknuJKzT</a></p>— Kashif N Chaudhry (@KashifMD) <a href="https://twitter.com/KashifMD/status/1018919454225420289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 16, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Click to expand...

Check her last week tweets i posted earlier she wanted to take credit in Panama case according to her she provided some docs but Zulfi Bukhari is being given the credit. His lawyer is same clown currently defending Reham and acting as second coming of Jinnah on Twitter. Posting a tweet below to give you an idea of the guy.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kutay ka bacha <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@imrankhanpti</a> is the biggest enemy of Jinnah’s Pakistan. He is worse than General Zia. May God save Pakistan from a ******* like him. Taliban Khan first mainstreamed Taliban and is now turned Pakistan into Ahraristan.</p>— Yasser Latif Hamdani (@theRealYLH) <a href="https://twitter.com/theRealYLH/status/1015269019501383680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 6, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Imran Khan in Jacobabad today, I think PTI really need to put a lot of energy into this constituency. Mian Mohammad Soomro is not far behind PPP, this seat can easily be won if enough momentum is generated.
 
PakWarrior said:
Absolutely no chance of it being hot next Wednesday. It's going to be cool and pleasant.

BUT rain and thunderstorms are predicted throughout Pakistan next Wednesday. This is what could affect voter turn out. Hopefully there will be sporadic showers on the day and not non stop heavy rain.
Click to expand...

Honestly, there is no point in looking at the forecast so far out from election day, it will probably change. We will have a better idea on Monday, I am hoping that it is pleasant with a bit of a drizzle rather than heavy rain.
 
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

https://drive.google.com/open?id=13h5brXNGK00tM20_cqh-sjHjfazgBkAw

I made my own predictions so we can get our shared predictions done here.

I honestly only have limited knowledge, I mainly have ground knowledge on Karachi and some pockets of Punjab and Sindh. The rest I have predicted based on what people have said in this forum, what I have heard from elsewhere, as well as a bit of research. The only area which I mostly guessed was FATA.

Have a look, and we can discuss what needs to be changed. I feel like my prediction is too optimistic, though it was hard to argue against not giving those seats to PTI.
 
hussain.r97 said:
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

https://drive.google.com/open?id=13h5brXNGK00tM20_cqh-sjHjfazgBkAw

I made my own predictions so we can get our shared predictions done here.

I honestly only have limited knowledge, I mainly have ground knowledge on Karachi and some pockets of Punjab and Sindh. The rest I have predicted based on what people have said in this forum, what I have heard from elsewhere, as well as a bit of research. The only area which I mostly guessed was FATA.

Have a look, and we can discuss what needs to be changed. I feel like my prediction is too optimistic, though it was hard to argue against not giving those seats to PTI.
Click to expand...

PTI
Safe - 42
Leaning - 62

PML-N
Safe - 21
Leaning - 21

PPP
Safe - 23
Leaning - 15

Others
Safe - 13
Leaning - 30

Tossups - 48
 
hussain.r97 said:
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

https://drive.google.com/open?id=13h5brXNGK00tM20_cqh-sjHjfazgBkAw

I made my own predictions so we can get our shared predictions done here.

I honestly only have limited knowledge, I mainly have ground knowledge on Karachi and some pockets of Punjab and Sindh. The rest I have predicted based on what people have said in this forum, what I have heard from elsewhere, as well as a bit of research. The only area which I mostly guessed was FATA.

Have a look, and we can discuss what needs to be changed. I feel like my prediction is too optimistic, though it was hard to argue against not giving those seats to PTI.
Click to expand...

Great work brother! i will give my input on your predictions soon and i would also like all others to give their input so we can come up with a final prediction list.
 
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