Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[waqar goraya]

In my constituency a rich PPP candidate is right now paying 5000 Rs/vote and a Honda 125 bike for 12 votes. There is no votebank of PPP in my area so PPP was competing with an IND candidate in my constituency for number 4 position.

The guy should have remained independent. It would have increased his chances.

 

[Mian]

Mannn I'm nervous...its now or never!

I just fail to understand how people can't see through the crap PPP and PMLN have put the country through.

True now or never for PTI. It's the mindset built by these 2 mafias over decades that's why its not easy to change khata he to lagata be hai types

 

[WebGuru]

The guy should have remained independent. It would have increased his chances.

True

He arranged a jalsi for Bilawal last week here in Attock and it was a super flop show Bilawal wasn't happy at all. PPP died in our District back in 2013 and there are hardly any jayaslas left here.

 

[waqar goraya]

I forgot this time they are going to use mobile apps to send data directly to ECP so its gonna be quick i guess otherwise rural polling stations used to be game changers because unka result sabse last main aata tha and urban polling station ke results se kaafi different.

Who cares about what is happening in a remote area of Shikarpur. The election is all about G.T road.

 

[waqar goraya]

Despite all the transfers and postings. A lot of N league followers are doing their job in election commission machinery which consists of government employees from education deptt to even judiciary.

Assistant returning officers are from revenue department, Tehsildars, ACs. And most of these have been appointed by N league in late 80s, 90s. Although they don't have much of a role.

Nevertheless, widespread rigging is not possible.

 

[Mian]

Now it's our turn to make him proud!
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This has been the culmination of 22 years of struggle. I can honestly say I have given my best for Pakistan. Now I leave the rest to Allah. <a href="https://t.co/DHO8zDHuN6">https://t.co/DHO8zDHuN6</a></p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1021481274115088385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Square Drive]

PTI will be 47 seats short of a majority, a gap which cannot be made up via smaller parties and independents, and thus will either have to ally with PPP to form a coalition or sit in the opposition.

There are 272 General seats and you need 137 to form govt. Less seats means you will have to depend on small parties to make up numbers and you will have to give them ministries and other privileges and they can blackmail you anytime.

137 needed to form a simple majority.

So if they win 90, they will need to make up the shortfall of 47 with independents and small sympathetic parties.

Getting 47 of those will be more or less impossible. If he does it will be with huge compromises and PTI will be better off sitting in oppostition.

Now if they get 110 seats they can make up the 27 shortfall alot easier, without giving too much.

A total of 115 to 120 seats would be even better.

So if they win 90 seats they might as well not bother.

Ahh okay, so the majority is at 137.

Say PTI gets 90 seats only and are unable to firm a coalition to get the other 47 seats - what happens in that case?

 

[PakWarrior]

I actually think we will more or less know who will win by 11 or 12 pm Pakistan time and not 9pm.

Remember there will be recounts on the day in very close seats. Candidates can demand that.

So the 2 am deadline doesn't mean much and this could go into 4 or 5 am Pakistan time.

There is no way all results will come in by 2 am.

I predict that several recounts will be done in Punjab in the neck and neck seats.

For example if a winner has 55000 seats and the runner up 53000 seats then the runner up can ask the RO for a recount. This will add another couple of hours to the time.

 

[Mian]

Ahh okay, so the majority is at 137.

Say PTI gets 90 seats only and are unable to firm a coalition to get the other 47 seats - what happens in that case?

The other parties can join hands and form govt like PMLN with 60/70 odd seats PPP with 40 odd seats and rest coming from MMA, MQM, Ind etc

 

[PakWarrior]

Ahh okay, so the majority is at 137.

Say PTI gets 90 seats only and are unable to firm a coalition to get the other 47 seats - what happens in that case?

Other parties will be then asked to form a coalition. For example PMLN and PPP.

The largest party always gets first dibs to form govt. If they can't after negotiations then the other parties are allowed to do so.

 

[PakWarrior]

I actually think we will more or less know who will win by 11 or 12 pm Pakistan time and not 9pm.

Remember there will be recounts on the day in very close seats. Candidates can demand that.

So the 2 am deadline doesn't mean much and this could go into 4 or 5 am Pakistan time.

There is no way all results will come in by 2 am.

I predict that several recounts will be done in Punjab in the neck and neck seats.

For example if a winner has 55000 seats and the runner up 53000 seats then the runner up can ask the RO for a recount. This will add another couple of hours to the time.

I meant to say 12 am not 12 pm.

 

[Mian]

Shame
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I was invited to <a href="https://twitter.com/AajKamranKhan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AajKamranKhan</a>’s show to discuss elections in Balochistan.The show started at 9:30 nd ended at 12. After making me wait for 3 hours, they informed me at 11:55 pm that there was no time to discuss Balochistan. This is the level of media’s interest in Balochistan.</p>— R Kakar (@rafiullahkakar) <a href="https://twitter.com/rafiullahkakar/status/1021471472269889537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[waqar goraya]

I actually think we will more or less know who will win by 11 or 12 pm Pakistan time and not 9pm.

Remember there will be recounts on the day in very close seats. Candidates can demand that.

So the 2 am deadline doesn't mean much and this could go into 4 or 5 am Pakistan time.

There is no way all results will come in by 2 am.

I predict that several recounts will be done in Punjab in the neck and neck seats.

For example if a winner has 55000 seats and the runner up 53000 seats then the runner up can ask the RO for a recount. This will add another couple of hours to the time.

If you are talking about exact figures then you will have to wait until the next morning. 2000 vote margin is not very common. Maybe 10 percent of constituencies will have a difference of 5000 or less margin between runner up and the winner.

This is understood that not all final results will be consolidated by 2am.

Even if polling time is increased by one hour , the polling will end at 7. It does not take more than 1-2 hours to count 1000-1400 votes of a polling station. As soon as polling agents tell the count to their candidates, the winners will be out celebrating.

 

[Mian]

 

[Mian]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We had decided not to field candidates for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2018?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Election2018</a> due to ideological principles. However this doesn’t mean we have boycotted the election. Our workers and office holders can cast their vote in their respective constituency and have been advised to follow a code of conduct.</p>— Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri (@TahirulQadri) <a href="https://twitter.com/TahirulQadri/status/1021455172709515265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
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He got a few thousands votes in many districts of Punjab and they can help us if he agrees to support PTI

 

[Square Drive]

Other parties will be then asked to form a coalition. For example PMLN and PPP.

The largest party always gets first dibs to form govt. If they can't after negotiations then the other parties are allowed to do so.

The other parties can join hands and form govt like PMLN with 60/70 odd seats PPP with 40 odd seats and rest coming from MMA, MQM, Ind etc

Damn, so you guys think/predict that if PTI gets 90 seats, others will form a coalition and defeat PTI?

 

[Mian]

Look at this propaganda! PMLN and PPP had most airtime for their ads on eveyr channel and these Geo sahafis running this account are saying they were not allowed? WTH man i was tired of listening to shahbaz and nawaz voices on repeat on every channel an ad after every minute.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Media buying for PMLN/Nawaz Sharif campaign is not being allowed. Most major media buying companies are refusing to take adverts for print and electronic media, stating that they have been 'warned' not to do so. PTI media buying is encouraged <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ElectionRigging?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ElectionRigging</a></p>— Pakistan Media Watch (@PakPressWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/PakPressWatch/status/1021392101005656064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Mian]

Damn, so you guys think/predict that if PTI gets 90 seats, others will form a coalition and defeat PTI?

There is a possibility thats why we need higher turnout to make sure our seats increase to 100+ and silent swing voter is gonna play a major role

 

[Mian]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ur" dir="rtl">مجھے تو لکھتے بھی شرم آ رہا ہے کہ کیا لکھوں۔ یہ دادو سے پیپلزپارٹی کا امیدوار عزیزجونیجو ہے جو کہہ رہا ہے ووٹ نہیں دینا تو اپنی۔۔۔۔ میں ڈال دو۔ مجھے ضرورت نہیں۔ الیکشن تو ویسے ہی جیت جاونگا۔ یہ وہ شخص ہیں جس نے سیاست کی وجہ سے بیوی سے زبردستی استعفی لیکر ملک بدر کیا تھا <a href="https://t.co/1IbsPD2LKq">pic.twitter.com/1IbsPD2LKq</a></p>— Imtiaz Chandio (@imtiazchandyo) <a href="https://twitter.com/imtiazchandyo/status/1021498457796878340?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Square Drive]

There is a possibility thats why we need higher turnout to make sure our seats increase to 100+ and silent swing voter is gonna play a major role

I see. Thanks bhai.

InshaAllah jeet PTI ki hi hogi

 

[hussain.r97]

Damn, so you guys think/predict that if PTI gets 90 seats, others will form a coalition and defeat PTI?

It really depends on the number of independents being elected. If there are 30, PTI can form government with 90 seats. If there are only 15, PTI wouldn't be able to. For now, we're heading for 15 independents, so PTI needs at least 100 seats.

 

[hussain.r97]

I'm actually finding it extremely hard to sleep or concentrate on uni. This election is making me so anxious, good think it'll all be over right at the beginning of my semester!

 

[waqar goraya]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We had decided not to field candidates for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2018?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Election2018</a> due to ideological principles. However this doesn’t mean we have boycotted the election. Our workers and office holders can cast their vote in their respective constituency and have been advised to follow a code of conduct.</p>— Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri (@TahirulQadri) <a href="https://twitter.com/TahirulQadri/status/1021455172709515265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
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He got a few thousands votes in many districts of Punjab and they can help us if he agrees to support PTI

They won't be voting for N league i guess.

 

[Mian]

They won't be voting for N league i guess.

Yep but Qadri have a soft corner for PPP and PMLQ. No chance of his vote going to TLP jitni gaalyan isko khadim rizvi nikaal chuka he lol

 

[Mian]

ok guys another saazish theory in sabne hum ko pagal samaj rakha he kia?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I fear it’s something else right before the elections, slow internet means almost no internet, close of internet shutdown situation.</p>— Nighat Dad (@nighatdad) <a href="https://twitter.com/nighatdad/status/1021499857217970177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[hussain.r97]

Just some coalition possibilities I have in mind.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] [MENTION=100918]Square Drive[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION]

Which of the below would you find acceptable, and which ones would you find unacceptable? Could you rank them in order of preference?

(A)
PTI (90) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1)
= 138

(B)
PTI (90) + PPP (38) (without Zardari) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=145

(C)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2)
= 138

(D)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1) + BNP (2) + NP (1)
= 138

(E)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + AML (2)
=140

(F)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + GDA (5) + BAP (5)
=141

(G)
PTI (120) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=137

 

[WebGuru]

This is the third time i am going vote and every time i voted for PTI. I was a registered voter in 2008 but preferred to stay at home.

GE2013 > PTI

LB2015 > PTI

GE2018 > PTI

What about you guys?

 

[hussain.r97]

Just some coalition possibilities I have in mind.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] [MENTION=100918]Square Drive[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION]

Which of the below would you find acceptable, and which ones would you find unacceptable? Could you rank them in order of preference?

(A)
PTI (90) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1)
= 138

(B)
PTI (90) + PPP (38) (without Zardari) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=145

(C)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2)
= 138

(D)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1) + BNP (2) + NP (1)
= 138

(E)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + AML (2)
=140

(F)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + GDA (5) + BAP (5)
=141

(G)
PTI (120) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=137

For me, (B) is a big no, and I am not sure if I am comfortable with A or D, way too many parties. Maybe D can be considered if MQM join in and bump it up to 149, that way we have other options to turn to for voting on bills.

Also, these counts are for major coalition partners. We can, for example, add more parties on option E or G to have more voting power in the NA.

My order of preference:
1.) G
2.) E
3.) F
4.) C
5.) D
6.) A
7.) B

 

[WebGuru]

Just some coalition possibilities I have in mind.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] [MENTION=100918]Square Drive[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION]

Which of the below would you find acceptable, and which ones would you find unacceptable? Could you rank them in order of preference?

(A)
PTI (90) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1)
= 138

(B)
PTI (90) + PPP (38) (without Zardari) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=145

(C)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2)
= 138

(D)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1) + BNP (2) + NP (1)
= 138

(E)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + AML (2)
=140

(F)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + GDA (5) + BAP (5)
=141

(G)
PTI (120) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=137

G (best) > F > E > D > C > A > B (this is the worst)

In this order for me

 

[Mian]

Just some coalition possibilities I have in mind.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] [MENTION=100918]Square Drive[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION]

Which of the below would you find acceptable, and which ones would you find unacceptable? Could you rank them in order of preference?

(A)
PTI (90) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1)
= 138

(B)
PTI (90) + PPP (38) (without Zardari) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=145

(C)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2)
= 138

(D)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1) + BNP (2) + NP (1)
= 138

(E)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + AML (2)
=140

(F)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + GDA (5) + BAP (5)
=141

(G)
PTI (120) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=137

I will take G and F without thinking twice. G because IND will have to join PTI and AML is our natural partner i can't expect Sheikhu to ditch us in any bill. AML will have just 1 seat i think because NA60 is postponed and i am expecting PTI to field their own candidate here next time so AML will be limited to 1 seat.

 

[hussain.r97]

G (best) > F > E > D > C > A > B (this is the worst)

In this order for me

So from this I assume you prefer going with PML-Q + GDA + BAP over MQM-P? Just curious to know your reasoning.

 

[hussain.r97]

I will take G and F without thinking twice. G because IND will have to join PTI and AML is our natural partner i can't expect Sheikhu to ditch us in any bill. AML will have just 1 seat i think because NA60 is postponed and i am expecting PTI to field their own candidate here next time so AML will be limited to 1 seat.

Do you think E would result in a solid working coalition?

 

[WebGuru]

So from this I assume you prefer going with PML-Q + GDA + BAP over MQM-P? Just curious to know your reasoning.

Going by their past record MQM is too emotional and we will be facing an in out drama after every few months.

 

[Mian]

Do you think E would result in a solid working coalition?

It can work but in case of 11 MQM seats we will have to give MQM something big maybe 2 ministries to make sure they remain silent.

 

[hussain.r97]

Going by their past record MQM is too emotional and we will be facing an in out drama after every few months.

Fair enough.

At this stage, I am torn between the two. On one side, MQM have the potential to stage a big drama (though, maybe they have changed after they left Altaf). On the other side, I don't know any competent people in PML-Q + GDA + BAP, and I feel like that whatever ministry we give these parties will not perform so well. MQM-P and PSP have good people like Faisal Subzwari and Mustafa Kamal, both of them would do a good job as ministers.

 

[hussain.r97]

It can work but in case of 11 MQM seats we will have to give MQM something big maybe 2 ministries to make sure they remain silent.

I think giving MQM a ministry or two, plus really supporting them in Karachi will keep them silent. The issue with PPP and PML-N is that they have done absolutely nothing for Karachi, and so the MQM have no reason to remain silent. Maybe throwing in things like a fresh census, and of course, empowered local government + mayor in Karachi would really do the trick. PTI and MQM-P in fact both have local government as a part of their manifestos.

 

[Mian]

I think giving MQM a ministry or two, plus really supporting them in Karachi will keep them silent. The issue with PPP and PML-N is that they have done absolutely nothing for Karachi, and so the MQM have no reason to remain silent. Maybe throwing in things like a fresh census, and of course, empowered local government + mayor in Karachi would really do the trick. PTI and MQM-P in fact both have local government as a part of their manifestos.

Nice suggestions but if we do that it means MQM will take the credit and we will be gifting Karachi to MQM instead of making it our own stronghold!

 

[WebGuru]

Fair enough.

At this stage, I am torn between the two. On one side, MQM have the potential to stage a big drama (though, maybe they have changed after they left Altaf). On the other side, I don't know any competent people in PML-Q + GDA + BAP, and I feel like that whatever ministry we give these parties will not perform so well. MQM-P and PSP have good people like Faisal Subzwari and Mustafa Kamal, both of them would do a good job as ministers.

There is a tricky situation MQM is a party GDA isn't a party its an alliance like MMA so they are weak and their demands are not going to be that big like ministries you can easily accommodate them.

 

[hussain.r97]

Nice suggestions but if we do that it means MQM will take the credit and we will be gifting Karachi to MQM instead of making it our own stronghold!

That is a fair point, but I think there will almost always be a trade off in whatever coalition we form. Forming one with GDA, PML-Q, and BAP puts some ministries at risk of being extremely incompetent. Going with MQM-P + PSP may make them popular in Karachi again, but honestly, if they do a good job under an empowered local government system, then it would be good for Pakistan as a whole (which is the main thing we want).

 

[hussain.r97]

There is a tricky situation MQM is a party GDA isn't a party its an alliance like MMA so they are weak and their demands are not going to be that big like ministries you can easily accommodate them.

Good point, but then what if they internally disagree with each other? We may have a voting problem with them in the national assembly. I think every coalition will have it's own tradeoffs to be honest.

 

[Mian]

That is a fair point, but I think there will almost always be a trade off in whatever coalition we form. Forming one with GDA, PML-Q, and BAP puts some ministries at risk of being extremely incompetent. Going with MQM-P + PSP may make them popular in Karachi again, but honestly, if they do a good job under an empowered local government system, then it would be good for Pakistan as a whole (which is the main thing we want).

Agree if MQM and PSP can actually do good work instead of repeating Altaf like dramas PTI can handover Karachi to them and it will also help to keep PPP in check. There is a very competent guy from BAP currently in senate Anwarul Haq Kakar he can be utilize instead of their MNAs. I really wanted him to join PTI he is currently their spokesman and he is not a wadera or nawab type.

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L1kKUbY8NYc" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[hussain.r97]

Agree if MQM and PSP can actually do good work instead of repeating Altaf like dramas PTI can handover Karachi to them and it will also help to keep PPP in check. There is a very competent guy from BAP currently in senate Anwarul Haq Kakar he can be utilize instead of their MNAs. I really wanted him to join PTI he is currently their spokesman and he is not a wadera or nawab type.

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L1kKUbY8NYc" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

BAP actually don't seem too bad, I would take them over GDA and PML-Q. I hope they can do good things for Balochistan in provincial government alongside PTI in federal government.

 

[hussain.r97]

Roshan are doing an exit poll too, it should come out right after polling finishes. Will be very interesting.

 

[Bewal Express]

As long as its not with AZ and the PPP, then its worth the effort to form a coalition. Any coalition needs massive compromise with people that mostly hate you, but on the positive side it gets the levers of patronage out of the hands of Nooras and if you desire to reform NAB, FBR etc than it puts them in a very difficult situation. The PTI need to see it as a stepping stone.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Just some coalition possibilities I have in mind.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] [MENTION=100918]Square Drive[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION]

Which of the below would you find acceptable, and which ones would you find unacceptable? Could you rank them in order of preference?

(A)
PTI (90) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1)
= 138

(B)
PTI (90) + PPP (38) (without Zardari) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=145

(C)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2)
= 138

(D)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1) + BNP (2) + NP (1)
= 138

(E)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + AML (2)
=140

(F)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + GDA (5) + BAP (5)
=141

(G)
PTI (120) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=137

G > F > E > C > D > A > B

G is the ideal scenario. B is the worst scenario. And the more the coalition partners, the more shaky the alliance. Not to mention, the number of compromises+ministry batwaras required.

F is the second best scenario because PTI is in electoral alliances with the smaller coalition partners already. BAP is an exception but PTI has worked with them during the senate elections.

MQM-P (our main rival in Karachi, and someone we will ceding the ground to in the city if we have them on board) and PPP (obvious reasons) should only be approached in a last-ditch effort. Although, I am not averse to making a coalition government in Sindh with the help of MQM-P and PSP. In that case, PTI will also have adequate leverage on MQM-P and can make them a part of the ruling alliance at the federal level.

 

[hussain.r97]

As long as its not with AZ and the PPP, then its worth the effort to form a coalition. Any coalition needs massive compromise with people that mostly hate you, but on the positive side it gets the levers of patronage out of the hands of Nooras and if you desire to reform NAB, FBR etc than it puts them in a very difficult situation. The PTI need to see it as a stepping stone.

I agree with you, as long as the coalition as workable, it's worth a shot. I think it would be a far greater injustice to let PML-N, MMA and PPP form government and damage the country further when you have options like MQM or GDA in front of you.

 

[awan_from_soon]

This is the third time i am going vote and every time i voted for PTI. I was a registered voter in 2008 but preferred to stay at home.

GE2013 > PTI

LB2015 > PTI

GE2018 > PTI

What about you guys?

Your voting profile is exactly the same as me. The only difference being that I wasn't registered in 2008. What will be your constituency in 2018? Mine is NA-60 (elections on which sadly got postponed, but I will be voting on the provincial seat under it).

 

[KingKhanWC]

As long as its not with AZ and the PPP, then its worth the effort to form a coalition. Any coalition needs massive compromise with people that mostly hate you, but on the positive side it gets the levers of patronage out of the hands of Nooras and if you desire to reform NAB, FBR etc than it puts them in a very difficult situation. The PTI need to see it as a stepping stone.

Im sure I heard IK ruling out any coalition with PPP. Hopefully he gets over 120 seats meaning he can make a deal with independents which will give him party strength and allow him to put into place the policies he wants. PPP would activelty work to ruin his government by going against almost all of his policies as they know after IK PTI is not a family run party like them, so if they fail in their first term it willl be back to PPP and PMLN.

 

[hussain.r97]

Im sure I heard IK ruling out any coalition with PPP. Hopefully he gets over 120 seats meaning he can make a deal with independents which will give him party strength and allow him to put into place the policies he wants. PPP would activelty work to ruin his government by going against almost all of his policies as they know after IK PTI is not a family run party like them, so if they fail in their first term it willl be back to PPP and PMLN.

He ruled out working with Zardari, not PPP. Zardari sitting out is almost impossible and even then, I am definitely not in favour of forming a coalition with PPP. It would also be political suicide for PTI.

 

[KingKhanWC]

He ruled out working with Zardari, not PPP. Zardari sitting out is almost impossible and even then, I am definitely not in favour of forming a coalition with PPP. It would also be political suicide for PTI.

I dont follow PPP at all but I thought it was Billawal running for post of PM? Apart from PPP supporters what do people of Pakistan think of him generally? In the UK we laugh at his accent when he's talking in Urdu and most dont take him seriously at all as a politician.

 

[hussain.r97]

I dont follow PPP at all but I thought it was Billawal running for post of PM? Apart from PPP supporters what do people of Pakistan think of him generally? In the UK we laugh at his accent when he's talking in Urdu and most dont take him seriously at all as a politician.

Bilawal is running for PM, but Zardari is also in the picture, running for an NA seat in Nawabshah.

Regarding Bilawal, I would not say he is extremely popular but I don't think he is so heavily disliked either. People make fun of his accent, etc, but I think if Zardari took a back seat, he would do reasonably well in the election. He has run a really top notch campaign too.

There was a recent public opinion survey on all the politicians, and the only two politicians who got a positive rating were Bilawal and Imran Khan at something like +3 and +11 respectively. Shahbaz got rated -11, and Zardari was something like -44.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

For me, (B) is a big no, and I am not sure if I am comfortable with A or D, way too many parties. Maybe D can be considered if MQM join in and bump it up to 149, that way we have other options to turn to for voting on bills.

Also, these counts are for major coalition partners. We can, for example, add more parties on option E or G to have more voting power in the NA.

My order of preference:
1.) G
2.) E
3.) F
4.) C
5.) D
6.) A
7.) B

What if you fall short of the estimated IND seats?

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

Bilawal is running for PM, but Zardari is also in the picture, running for an NA seat in Nawabshah.

Regarding Bilawal, I would not say he is extremely popular but I don't think he is so heavily disliked either. People make fun of his accent, etc, but I think if Zardari took a back seat, he would do reasonably well in the election. He has run a really top notch campaign too.

There was a recent public opinion survey on all the politicians, and the only two politicians who got a positive rating were Bilawal and Imran Khan at something like +3 and +11 respectively. Shahbaz got rated -11, and Zardari was something like -44.

I personally like Bilawal but he has the same problem as that of Imran Khan. He is surrounded by vultures who will do anything to get their hands on resources. Plus I still have the bad taste in my mouth regarding their 2008-2013 tenure so I wouldn’t wanna repeat that same experience as a voter. That’s the tragedy of it all, because in principle I hate political dynasties.

 

[hussain.r97]

What if you fall short of the estimated IND seats?

Well (A) would not be viable anymore, and the other options will need one extra small party added to makeup for the lost numbers. Most pollsters are predicting 15-20 for independents, I personally think it will be between 10-15 though.

 

[hussain.r97]

I personally like Bilawal but he has the same problem as that of Imran Khan. He is surrounded by vultures who will do anything to get their hands on resources. Plus I still have the bad taste in my mouth regarding their 2008-2013 tenure so I wouldn’t wanna repeat that same experience as a voter. That’s the tragedy of it all, because in principle I hate political dynasties.

I honestly don't have a bad opinion of Bilawal, and I firmly believe that he should not be judged based on his parents, he should be treated as his own person. I am really interested to see what he does once he is elected to office.

From what I have heard, he has tried to bring people of his won choice closer to his inner circle and he has tried to bring about changes, unfortunately Zardari is the one who has the final say in all affairs. If he can change the party, keep Zardari's influence down, and do some good work in Sindh, then I think people may be more willing to trust him. The thing is that 2008 - 2013 has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, and no one are willing to trust them and risk facing the same sort of disaster.

 

[Bewal Express]

Im sure I heard IK ruling out any coalition with PPP. Hopefully he gets over 120 seats meaning he can make a deal with independents which will give him party strength and allow him to put into place the policies he wants. PPP would activelty work to ruin his government by going against almost all of his policies as they know after IK PTI is not a family run party like them, so if they fail in their first term it willl be back to PPP and PMLN.

If the PTI get around a 100 seats i see a chance of reasonable coalition but anything less and we will have an election within 6 months.

 

[Square Drive]

Just some coalition possibilities I have in mind.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] [MENTION=100918]Square Drive[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION]

Which of the below would you find acceptable, and which ones would you find unacceptable? Could you rank them in order of preference?

(A)
PTI (90) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1)
= 138

(B)
PTI (90) + PPP (38) (without Zardari) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=145

(C)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2)
= 138

(D)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1) + BNP (2) + NP (1)
= 138

(E)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + AML (2)
=140

(F)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + GDA (5) + BAP (5)
=141

(G)
PTI (120) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=137

G (best) > F > E > D > C > A > B (this is the worst)

In this order for me

Although my knowledge is not nearly as vast as the rest of you guys, I would probably agree with [MENTION=133397]WebGuru[/MENTION]'s order.

Coalition with PPP is definitely not a bright idea, that much is for sure.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

Well (A) would not be viable anymore, and the other options will need one extra small party added to makeup for the lost numbers. Most pollsters are predicting 15-20 for independents, I personally think it will be between 10-15 though.

I only say that because in all estimates IND are a constant number I.e 15 which is quite weird because to many ‘experts’ IND are nobody’s who aren’t even worth a discussion on this forum and they divert the whole conversation. Right?

 

[Square Drive]

I'm actually finding it extremely hard to sleep or concentrate on uni. This election is making me so anxious, good think it'll all be over right at the beginning of my semester!

Ahahaha, I feel you bro

The hype has been crazy.

 

[hussain.r97]

Listening to 92 News, they are very confident and have strong reports that GDA will put up a strong performance in Sindh, and opposition parties have a very decent chance of forming Sindh Government.

 

[WebGuru]

Your voting profile is exactly the same as me. The only difference being that I wasn't registered in 2008. What will be your constituency in 2018? Mine is NA-60 (elections on which sadly got postponed, but I will be voting on the provincial seat under it).

Mine is NA55 (old NA57). Punjab begins from my constituency and we will be handing over both NA seats (55, 56) from Attock to PTI wahan se aage aap pindi waalon ka kaam shuru...

 

[mmkextreme_1]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We had decided not to field candidates for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2018?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Election2018</a> due to ideological principles. However this doesn’t mean we have boycotted the election. Our workers and office holders can cast their vote in their respective constituency and have been advised to follow a code of conduct.</p>— Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri (@TahirulQadri) <a href="https://twitter.com/TahirulQadri/status/1021455172709515265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
He got a few thousands votes in many districts of Punjab and they can help us if he agrees to support PTI

Would be nice if he could throw his support towards PTI

Just don't want any drama to come out of it.

 

[Mian]

Would be nice if he could throw his support towards PTI

Just don't want any drama to come out of it.

Imran should make a call to him today we need as much support as possible.

 

[hussain.r97]

Would be nice if he could throw his support towards PTI

Just don't want any drama to come out of it.

Imran should make a call to him today we need as much support as possible.

How likely do you think it is for him to get behind Imran Khan if Imran makes the call?

 

[Waseem]

Just some coalition possibilities I have in mind.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] [MENTION=100918]Square Drive[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION]

Which of the below would you find acceptable, and which ones would you find unacceptable? Could you rank them in order of preference?

(A)
PTI (90) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1)
= 138

(B)
PTI (90) + PPP (38) (without Zardari) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=145

(C)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + GDA (8) + AML (2)
= 138

(D)
PTI (100) + IND (15) + GDA (8) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + BAP (5) + ARP (1) + BNP (2) + NP (1)
= 138

(E)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + MQM-P (11) + PSP (2) + AML (2)
=140

(F)
PTI (110) + IND (15) + AML (2) + PML-Q (4) + GDA (5) + BAP (5)
=141

(G)
PTI (120) + IND (15) + AML (2)
=137

Well G would be ideal but that is our best case scenario but seems unlikely for now unless turnout is over 55%.

C is also very much possible but i think it will be A most likely.

 

[hussain.r97]

Well G would be ideal but that is our best case scenario but seems unlikely for now unless turnout is over 55%.

C is also very much possible but i think it will be A most likely.

You really think PTI will only end up with 90 seats?

In my opinion, C or D look the most likely. E and F aren't long shots either, depends on turnout.

 

[Mian]

How likely do you think it is for him to get behind Imran Khan if Imran makes the call?

Qadri was a lil upset with Imran a few months ago but i think Sheikh Rasheed can get him board easily.

 

[Waseem]

You really think PTI will only end up with 90 seats?

In my opinion, C or D look the most likely. E and F aren't long shots either, depends on turnout.

Well my heart says 110 but knowing PMLN and mentality of voters, i can't feel positive enough for PTI to get more than 90. Maybe because i was expecting PTI to win around 70 seats in 2013 elections but they only won 30?

While watching the election transmission (which i always found fascinating since i was kid), i would hope for PTI win first and foremost but Independent (even though i believe they are useless pple) will be my 2nd favourite

I will be disappointed every time i see PMLN, PPP or MMA winning a seat.

I sincerely hope TLP does not win any seat, got a bit of shock when one of their candidates in Bhakkar was neck to neck with PTI's Dr Dhandla but turned out PMLN candidate had been disqualified but now back in race so hopefully TLP won't win.

Another one is Ludhyanvi in Jhang, hope he suffers embarrassing loss and Ghulam bibi ends his career once for all.

 

[hussain.r97]

Well my heart says 110 but knowing PMLN and mentality of voters, i can't feel positive enough for PTI to get more than 90. Maybe because i was expecting PTI to win around 70 seats in 2013 elections but they only won 30?

While watching the election transmission (which i always found fascinating since i was kid), i would hope for PTI win first and foremost but Independent (even though i believe they are useless pple) will be my 2nd favourite

I will be disappointed every time i see PMLN, PPP or MMA winning a seat.

I sincerely hope TLP does not win any seat, got a bit of shock when one of their candidates in Bhakkar was neck to neck with PTI's Dr Dhandla but turned out PMLN candidate had been disqualified but now back in race so hopefully TLP won't win.

Another one is Ludhyanvi in Jhang, hope he suffers embarrassing loss and Ghulam bibi ends his career once for all.

Fair enough. It is better to be pleasantly surprised rather than disappointed like 2013 again!

 

[mmkextreme_1]

How likely do you think it is for him to get behind Imran Khan if Imran makes the call?

I think its very well possible. Qadri has a huge ego but Imran needs to look at the bigger picture. As mentioned by [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] Sheikh Rasheed could play a significant role in making this happen.

The only issue I can see with this is that, in the future is Qadri saab disagreeing with something with Imran/PTI and thus going all out against him. The question I guess is, is the hassle worth it?

 

[mmkextreme_1]

I'm actually finding it extremely hard to sleep or concentrate on uni. This election is making me so anxious, good think it'll all be over right at the beginning of my semester!

I know exactly how you feel...ahhh it's nerve wracking

Taking a day of work on Wednesday to follow this, hoping we will be celebrating an Imran victory, Insha'Allah.

Anyone else doing an election type get together?! Gonna be a long day!

 

[I think therfore I am]

Is there a military coup on the horizon?

 

[mmkextreme_1]

Is there a military coup on the horizon?

Hell no

 

[hussain.r97]

Is there a military coup on the horizon?

If you only read international media you'd think that all sorts of weird things are happening. They are all buying into Nawaz Sharif's narrative. In reality, no, there is no coup on the horizon.

 

[Waseem]

Is there a military coup on the horizon?

When Godfather gets into trouble, he will spread this narrative that military coup is on horizon.

I don't think military coup is even possible in Pakistan anymore with such hostile media and all parties on board.

There are no more Nawaz Sharifs around who will support martial law for personal benefits.

No doubt there are forces still meddling in politics but their role will be restricted when a strong and selfless leader takes over and strengthens the institutions (which is exactly happening right now).

 

[hussain.r97]

MQM-P had a big jalsa in Karachi last night, Mustafa Kamal held a closing press conference that turned into a mini jalsa too. Looks like the competition in Karachi is going to be very close on many seats. This whole election is hanging on a knife's edge. I have got a feeling that we won't know which way this election is going until early morning on results night.

 

[hussain.r97]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Prominant Shia Scholar Allama Shehenshah Hussain Naqvi supports Imran Khan. "If there is any leader after Quaid-e-Azam and Bhutto who can change the fate of Pakistan then that is only Imran Khan"<a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ImranKhanPTI</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AbSirfImranKhan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AbSirfImranKhan</a> <a href="https://t.co/EpDSdV1obe">pic.twitter.com/EpDSdV1obe</a></p>— PTI (@PTIofficial) <a href="https://twitter.com/PTIofficial/status/1021456140687814656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

"Changing Pakistan's fate is not only 'sunnat', it is 'wajib'. If there is any leader after Quaid-e-Azam and Bhutto who can change the fate of Pakistan then that is only Imran Khan"

This may give PTI a bit of a boost. He is a reasonably prominent Shia scholar in Pakistan, and the more religious Shia will definitely take take his words into consideration. Shia are already very much leaning towards PTI, just need them all to turn out.

 

[Hermoine Green]

Excitement is just tearing the roof

Can't concentrate on any thing.

Today is going to be the longest day of this year.

 

[Hermoine Green]

This is the third time i am going vote and every time i voted for PTI. I was a registered voter in 2008 but preferred to stay at home.

GE2013 > PTI

LB2015 > PTI

GE2018 > PTI

What about you guys?

Lol, i am 50+ but like you i preferred to stay home / work.

Voted in 2013 for PTI
GE 2018 .. Bloody hell isn't it obvious???

 

[Hermoine Green]

I will take G and F without thinking twice. G because IND will have to join PTI and AML is our natural partner i can't expect Sheikhu to ditch us in any bill. AML will have just 1 seat i think because NA60 is postponed and i am expecting PTI to field their own candidate here next time so AML will be limited to 1 seat.

G & F are best choices.