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Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

Which will be the top party after the upcoming general elections?

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hussain.r97 said:
Some reports from NA-243 that Mustafa Kamal may lose his seat, don't know how authentic these reports are, it's hard to believe.
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IK is standing on that seat my cousins were thinking of skipping till they found out IK is standing now most of them went and voted
 
Missing [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] today.
He must have been fun today in this thread.
 
Mamoon said:
View attachment 83048

Soon...

No one needs to worry. There is no point in speculating, know one anything right now. However, Imran Khan will be the next PM because he deserves any opportunity to walk the talk. His party did not live up to the billing in KP, but they can be excused because it was their first time.

However, it was an important experience and the next five years will be a true test of his character and determination. If he lets the nation down, he will lose the faith and trust of millions of people. I don’t know how it will go, but he did deserve one chance.

Also, although it is highly unlikely, but if PTI fails to win majority or if it fails to win enough seats to form a coalition, it is my humble request that his supporters should accept the decision of the majority of the nation and not blame rigging.

If they are not going to thank rigging for Imran Khan’s win, they should not blame it for his defeat. We do not want to see another long march and another dharna in the capital. The mistakes that were made in 2014 should not be repeated again.

We need to strengthen our institutions and preserve our democracy, but democracy doesn’t mean that the outcome will necessarily be in our favor. It is the only way we can fight and oppose military interference in our politics, and that will be Imran Khan’s biggest challenge when he comes into power - he has used the military to gain power, but he needs to remind them that he will be the one calling the shots.

The outcome may not be favorable for him, but we must keep fighting against the institution that has done more harm to the nation than any corrupt party.

Imran will also have adapt as a leader. He is too impulsive and gets carried away easily, he needs to think through his statements better which often land him in needless controversies. He needs to be less emotional and more pragmatic. Demagogy and rhetoric can help you win the election, but it does not make you a great leader.
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face saving post and nothing else.
 
InziRules said:
It's between IK and MQM.

Mustafa Kamal stands zero chance on this seat. His PSP is.... garbage.
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Btw, is Kamal really running from this seat, [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION]? Don't remember his name on the ballot paper.... or anyone in the world who's thinking he can win :)))
 
hussain.r97 said:
I meant NA 253, his "safe seat".
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Ah, lol. No wonder, I was sure he wasn't here, because even though his PSP is garbage, it's still not THAT garbage that we wouldn't even know he was on our seat.

I have serious doubts about PSP winning anywhere. MQM supporters absolutely despise Kamal. PTI supporters who are converted from MQM also hate Kamal.

Actually, I'm not sure who likes him at this point
 
shaaik said:
Re-election
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Which one will it be. According to his slogan, if he wins, it will be hard for him to resign from his seat from Karachi. If he wins from his traditional seat it will risk the re-election prospects of any other PTI candidate due the disgruntled voter. So which one will it be.
 
Angrez Pakistani said:
Which one will it be. According to his slogan, if he wins, it will be hard for him to resign from his seat from Karachi. If he wins from his traditional seat it will risk the re-election prospects of any other PTI candidate due the disgruntled voter. So which one will it be.
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He will absolutely keep Karachi. This seat is important of PTI want to gain a foothold in Karachi and expand further in LG elections as well as 2023 elections.
 
I would honestly suggest IK keep the NA-243 seat. Many people are directly voting for IK, not PTI. Not sure there will be this turnout in a reelection.

Then again, if it's between him and PML-N for government, he might be better off staying where PML-N can sneak in, because he can always ally with MQM-P
 
hussain.r97 said:
He will absolutely keep Karachi. This seat is important of PTI want to gain a foothold in Karachi and expand further in LG elections as well as 2023 elections.
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He can't win this again, if he leaves it, I'm sure.

That said, if he needs a coalition, and his main opposition is Nawaz, he might be better off keeping a seat where a PML-N candidate could get in, because MQM-P won't ally with Nawaz after operations. At least, itni to izzat baqi hai.
 
InziRules said:
I would honestly suggest IK keep the NA-243 seat. Many people are directly voting for IK, not PTI. Not sure there will be this turnout in a reelection.

Then again, if it's between him and PML-N for government, he might be better off staying where PML-N can sneak in, because he can always ally with MQM-P
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That's a very good point too. Personally want him to keep Karachi because NA 243 is my home constituency! I wish I was there to vote for him.
 
I'm so happy that Karachi had the smoothest elections in the country! A huge turnaround from last time.
 
hussain.r97 said:
That's a very good point too. Personally want him to keep Karachi because NA 243 is my home constituency! I wish I was there to vote for him.
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It's my constituency too, voted Imran and the MQM guy for PS because he's literally awesome, and has solved a lot of the problems in our block. The MQM guy for NA is a okay guy too. None of these are people who were Altaf's right hand men or high up in the party. Was a hard decision, since these two from our constituency aren't that bad, they're nice people.
 
Angrez Pakistani said:
Which one will it be. According to his slogan, if he wins, it will be hard for him to resign from his seat from Karachi. If he wins from his traditional seat it will risk the re-election prospects of any other PTI candidate due the disgruntled voter. So which one will it be.
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You know how bye-elections work .. it's guaranteed win for a ruling govt so Khan can choose to resign from any seat e wiahes and field any candidate on them. But I hope he keeps his seat where he knocks down saad rafique if ever that happens..
 
No fake results in this thread guys. Have deleted posts this time but will be handing out bans next.
 
Btw, the expectation, in case people forget in all this euphoria was for PPP to get majority in Sindh, PML-N majority in Punjab, PTI in KPK, and no idea in Balochistan.

Overall, the thought was that PTI could sneak in enough from the other 3 to make up for getting some less in Punjab.

If PML-N barely gets one, that's not better than expected, that's better than the landslide loss some analysts were idiotically spouting.

Let's see
 
Guys let me tel u. the standing in line is just bull crap.

When it will hit 6. they will ask everyone to leave. becasue the line extents out from the gates of schools.

Only the ones inside by 6 will get to vote.

THe ones in line will be asked to go home
 
Hermoine Green said:
Half hour to go, and i am getting tensed :))
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Haha nothing like that pre-election result dread. It's either agony or ecstasy depending on who you voted for.

Here in UK we had collective heart attacks upon seeing the shock exit poll in 2015 and 2017.
 
Mein tou dekhoonga
Mein tou dekhoonga

Tum bhi dekho gye
Tum bhi dekho gye

Jab roti sasti hogi
Aur mehngi ho gi jaan
Wo din phir aayega Jab aisa,
Hoga Pakistan

Mein tou dekhoonga
Mein tou dekhoonga
Tum bhi dekho gye
Tum bhi dekho gye

InshaAllah lets all hope what happens, happens for the betterment of Pakistan.
 
Ok guys, you all have one hour. Go and pray, attend washroom, eat something, talk to your wife husband bf gf and then stick your eyes to TV :))
 
Btw, PPP has done as I expected in that poll. People were acting like they'd get around 30 seats again. 5 years have passed, they were going to pull a bit more.

71+41+9=121 btw, though the idea of MQM merging with Noon is impossible
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Seat projections based on our exit poll calculated using a uniform swing method on a division by division basis. As we mentioned earlier, treat these figures with cautions as swings could vary from seat to seat. <a href="https://t.co/3PPOItvj9o">pic.twitter.com/3PPOItvj9o</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1022104183288283136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Roshan predicts 88 seats for PTI, 71 for PMLN, and 41 for PPP. Although, I won't be reading into his exit poll too much as they use uniform swing method (which is not applicable in Pak). Furthermore, their exit pollsters only had presence in .2% of the country's polling stations.

However, based on their EP, it looks like PTI will sit in opposition.
 
Chief Justice ordered that people who are inside the polling stations will be allowed to vote even after cut off time.
 
lmao, Immy to summon to ECP

Wuld be funny if he wins and then goes to jail for 6 months for not even droppin his vote properly. :))
 
Salam/Morning everyone,

How's is it going??

Been waking up through the night reading the thread..seems like a record turn out

Has the time been extended officially?
 
InziRules said:
If that exit poll is true, the next government is Imran's.
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No it isn't that simple. For once, we don't know the distribution of the remaining 52 seats. And we would have to ally ourselves with MQM even if the majority of the remaining 52 seats belong to independents.
 
awan_from_soon said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Seat projections based on our exit poll calculated using a uniform swing method on a division by division basis. As we mentioned earlier, treat these figures with cautions as swings could vary from seat to seat. <a href="https://t.co/3PPOItvj9o">pic.twitter.com/3PPOItvj9o</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1022104183288283136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Roshan predicts 88 seats for PTI, 71 for PMLN, and 41 for PPP. Although, I won't be reading into his exit poll too much as they use uniform swing method (which is not applicable in Pak). Furthermore, their exit pollsters only had presence in .2% of the country's polling stations.

However, based on their EP, it looks like PTI will sit in opposition.
Click to expand...

No way do PPP ally with PML-N man. People don't realise how much voters here in Sindh despise PML-N
 
NA 35

First result

One vote for Akram Durrani
One Imran Khan

Only 2 votes casted :))
 
awan_from_soon said:
No it isn't that simple. For once, we don't know the distribution of the remaining 52 seats. And we would have to ally ourselves with MQM even if the majority of the remaining 52 seats belong to independents.
Click to expand...

And? I don't see why Imran should have an issue allying with MQM minus Altaf. It's been clean elections, no Dhandli, no Ghunda ghardi from MQM. If they have seats, that means they have support and their policies are similar to IK.
 
awan_from_soon said:
No it isn't that simple. For once, we don't know the distribution of the remaining 52 seats. And we would have to ally ourselves with MQM even if the majority of the remaining 52 seats belong to independents.
Click to expand...

They have released it now, 19 independents. 8 to GDA, 4 to BAP, 4 to PML-Q, 1 to AML.
 
awan_from_soon said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Seat projections based on our exit poll calculated using a uniform swing method on a division by division basis. As we mentioned earlier, treat these figures with cautions as swings could vary from seat to seat. <a href="https://t.co/3PPOItvj9o">pic.twitter.com/3PPOItvj9o</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1022104183288283136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Roshan predicts 88 seats for PTI, 71 for PMLN, and 41 for PPP. Although, I won't be reading into his exit poll too much as they use uniform swing method (which is not applicable in Pak). Furthermore, their exit pollsters only had presence in .2% of the country's polling stations.

However, based on their EP, it looks like PTI will sit in opposition.
Click to expand...

88 seats is a disaster. Need to win atleast 100 seats to form government imo.
 
awan_from_soon said:
No it isn't that simple. For once, we don't know the distribution of the remaining 52 seats. And we would have to ally ourselves with MQM even if the majority of the remaining 52 seats belong to independents.
Click to expand...

InziRules said:
And? I don't see why Imran should have an issue allying with MQM minus Altaf. It's been clean elections, no Dhandli, no Ghunda ghardi from MQM. If they have seats, that means they have support and their policies are similar to IK.
Click to expand...

According to the poll, PTI can only form government with MQM in the mix. Won't look much into it for now, I'm not satisfied with the way it has been done.
 
Btw, the poll assumes uniformity.

PPP will get 35-40 seats, but a lot of this result will be based on small percentages. You might even see a party get more votes, but less seats.
 
ARY clearly breaking all the rules.

They have starting giving results.

ECP told all news channels not to announce anything before 7pm and all channels are adhering to this apart from ARY.
 
awan_from_soon said:
No it isn't that simple. For once, we don't know the distribution of the remaining 52 seats. And we would have to ally ourselves with MQM even if the majority of the remaining 52 seats belong to independents.
Click to expand...

PakWarrior said:
ARY clearly breaking all the rules.

They have starting giving results.

ECP told all news channels not to announce anything before 7pm and all channels are adhering to this apart from ARY.
Click to expand...

This is against the ECP code of conduct. :facepalm:
 
What the hell? How is ARY giving results when ECP clearly warned them against giving results before 7 pm.
 
Isn't 137 the number of seats needed to form the government ?

I assume the actual seat numbers will differ from the exit poll projection but if those numbers materialise - PTI would need 49 to support their government. Who would they ally with ?
 
awan_from_soon said:
No it isn't that simple. For once, we don't know the distribution of the remaining 52 seats. And we would have to ally ourselves with MQM even if the majority of the remaining 52 seats belong to independents.
Click to expand...

InziRules said:
Btw, the poll assumes uniformity.

PPP will get 35-40 seats, but a lot of this result will be based on small percentages. You might even see a party get more votes, but less seats.
Click to expand...

Exactly.
 
hussain.r97 said:
Seat predictions are very hit and miss in FPTP, they're percentages are more relavent.

PTI 29%
PML-N 26%
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Guys IGNORE THE NUMBER 88.

The exit poll is good for general indications but not number of seats.

PTI will win alot more than 88 seats inshallah.
 
awan_from_soon said:
No it isn't that simple. For once, we don't know the distribution of the remaining 52 seats. And we would have to ally ourselves with MQM even if the majority of the remaining 52 seats belong to independents.
Click to expand...

awan_from_soon said:
So, combine these + mqm in a shaky alliance and PTI can probably make a government. The remaining 16 seats are still unaccounted for btw.
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Yup, but I have serious doubts on this poll. I think 95 seats is a bare minimum, but we will inshallah cross 100.
 
saeedhk said:
Imran Khan might be sentenced to 6 months.
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Don't think so. It was ECP's job to reign the TV cameramen in. Its not like he was filming himself vote.

Furthermore, IK wasn't the only one who conducted a presser. Shahbaz and Bilawal did them as well.

On a darker note, maybe this was establishment's minus Imran formula. :O
 
awan_from_soon said:
No it isn't that simple. For once, we don't know the distribution of the remaining 52 seats. And we would have to ally ourselves with MQM even if the majority of the remaining 52 seats belong to independents.
Click to expand...

ARY have spotted giving results I think?
 
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