How can Pakistan use the Indo-China crisis to it's advantage?

[MenInG]

Your enemies enemy is your friend!

Or so the story goes.

Pakistan and China are already friends but what can Pakistan do to make that friendship stand out further in this situation when relationship between India and China is at an old time low?

Its a cynical view and I apologise in advance but then we live in a strange world!

 

[warcry]

do some missile testing.
withdraw our diplomats from India, All of them.
tease them on the border.
that is all

 

[Napa]

It depends upon what you decide Pakistan's "advantage" is?

If it is creating more trouble for India, yeah sure. If India-Pakistan is a zero sum game, anything which hurts India is to Pakistan's "advantage", then yes.

If it is getting India to leave Kashmir, not going to happen.

If it is getting the Pakistani economy to get better, then India's issues with China are irrelevant. It is possible that Pakistan will be emboldened to increase its low-level war with India, however that will only be to the detriment of its economy.

 

[rockyboy2018]

Maybe China and Pakistan should go bomb India and raise the flag of Pakistan in Delhi and done with ghazva e hind and convert all hindous into Islam.

Jokes apart, Pakistan should focus on solving more important issues in the country. Other than that, Pakistan should protect own borders that should be its main priority it is quite embarssing for a nuclear country not to shoot down any Indian military plance then they came in huge numbers inside Pakistan.

Pakistan should stay out of other country business or issues be it with a non muslim country or a muslim country.

That is the right advantage.

 

[Nostalgic]

The Humsaaya Mulk will have to devote troops to the LAC, which weren’t there previously, and ideally the Chinese plan on staying indefinitely and therefore keeping those troops engaged from now on. I’m sure this is already in the works, but carefully noting where these troops were before the move, and coordinating with the Chinese about using that to our advantage and potentially posing a threat to their other route to SSN/Siachen would be worthwhile. Two slices of the salami are better than one.

Just the other day the Kashmiri posters here were reporting enemy troops moving north over the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh highway. That may mean spots along the LOC that may be vulnerable for them.

 

[Rana]

Wouldn’t be surprised if Pakistan and China are working together here to do a Montreal screwjob on India here. [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION]

 

[Lonewarrior]

Pakistan already gt what it wanted ..... the major chunk of Indian troops on LOC already shifted to Ladakh .... you gt the point ....

 

[Gharib Aadmi]

Pakistan had a once in a lifetime chance in 62. That was the time to fight for Kashmir during the China India war. the chance of this escalating to a point where Pakistan can take advantage is close to zero.

However in a completely hypothetical scenario if Chinese army is approaching Delhi, then yes you send the Army to liberate the valley.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Nothing, just moral support to China.

Modi has felt a whooping now on both sides. Indians are brainwashed into believeing they are some great superpower, the more Modi is humilated ,the more likely they are to do with Hindu extremism, which will be good for China, Pakistan and India too.

 

[Nostalgic]

Pakistan already gt what it wanted ..... the major chunk of Indian troops on LOC already shifted to Ladakh .... you gt the point ....

Do you have details? This sounds promising.

 

[Pakpak]

Do you have details? This sounds promising.

I feel Modi will try another drama with Pakistan. I've been reading PAF has been very active near the border and around Karachi.

 

[Syed1]

Station a squadron of F-16s in Skardu forward operating base.


That'll surely put the cat amongst the pigeons.

 

[cric_man]

This whole thing started after India started barking about "retaking" AJK & GB thus directly threatening CPEC.
This is China's answer. By occupying Gulwan Valley they can directly impact Siachen. Keep in mind that Forces in Siachen get bulk of their winter supplies before the winter freeze. Once the roads are shut off, only minimal supplies can be airlifted.

 

[Nostalgic]

This whole thing started after India started barking about "retaking" AJK & GB thus directly threatening CPEC.
This is China's answer. By occupying Gulwan Valley they can directly impact Siachen. Keep in mind that Forces in Siachen get bulk of their winter supplies before the winter freeze. Once the roads are shut off, only minimal supplies can be airlifted.

From what I’ve read, they have one other road too. Not as convenient as the DSDBO one, but still. That’s why I was wondering if we can threaten that one from the LOC side, a la 1999, but this time with extra feeling.

 

[KingKhanWC]

I feel Modi will try another drama with Pakistan. I've been reading PAF has been very active near the border and around Karachi.

There is no doubt but doubt it will be with fighter jets after the previous humiliation. They will make up some story of killing isi agents in India or stopping some terror atttack/assasination on him.

Then again it's Modi...who knows.

 

[Greenstorm]

From what I’ve read, they have one other road too. Not as convenient as the DSDBO one, but still. That’s why I was wondering if we can threaten that one from the LOC side, a la 1999, but this time with extra feeling.

India's access to Siachen can only be stopped if China captures majority of Eastern Leh district. If that happens, India won't be able to access Leh town itself in winters let alone Siachen. Then if we retry the Kargil operation (with better planning) and if we can cut-off the Srinagar-Leh highway a few kilometres south of Tiger hill then India's access can be completely blocked.

Obviously, Indians will have their own plans to counter such moves.

 

[Nostalgic]

India's access to Siachen can only be stopped if China captures majority of Eastern Leh district. If that happens, India won't be able to access Leh town itself in winters let alone Siachen. Then if we retry the Kargil operation (with better planning) and if we can cut-off the Srinagar-Leh highway a few kilometres south of Tiger hill then India's access can be completely blocked.

Obviously, Indians will have their own plans to counter such moves.

Thanks, that’s what I was curious about. What about the DBO airstrip? Apparently they can land C-130s there. Can they bypass the roads altogether and just use that to supply Siachen? Also does cutting off the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh highway at Tiger Hill cut off Kargil too, or just Leh? In other words, is this point between Srinagar and Kargil, or Kargil and Leh?

 

[Adijazz1706]

Thanks, that’s what I was curious about. What about the DBO airstrip? Apparently they can land C-130s there. Can they bypass the roads altogether and just use that to supply Siachen? Also does cutting off the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh highway at Tiger Hill cut off Kargil too, or just Leh? In other words, is this point between Srinagar and Kargil, or Kargil and Leh?

Its between Kargil and Srinagar, near Dras

 

[WhenSultansBowled]

This whole thing started after India started barking about "retaking" AJK & GB thus directly threatening CPEC.
This is China's answer. By occupying Gulwan Valley they can directly impact Siachen. Keep in mind that Forces in Siachen get bulk of their winter supplies before the winter freeze. Once the roads are shut off, only minimal supplies can be airlifted.

The irony is that a solid CPEC would benefit all of the SC, India included.

I guess, a hyena should patiently wait until the lion has finished eating

 

[Nostalgic]

Its between Kargil and Srinagar, near Dras

Thanks. I see that you’re in Srinagar. There are lots of questions we could ask you regarding the situation, but I’m not sure if it’s wise considering how phones are often confiscated and social media posts monitored...

 

[shaz619]

Wouldn’t be surprised if Pakistan and China are working together here to do a Montreal screwjob on India here. [MENTION=46929]shaz619[/MENTION]

No Montreal required, the victim simply isn't sophisticated enough intellectually or physically.

 

[Bhaijaan]

Appreciate your apology in OP dear [MENTION=93712]MenInG[/MENTION]

India will surely be concerned of another two front war but i hope we are adequately prepared for the same as it's not a new idea at all. This has always been on the cards and even tried to an extent in the 1960s against a much weaker India.

No matter how much anti-war you are, all 3 of us are too big to ignore serious provocations. If enemy stands at your doorstep you cannot look the other way.

 

[Greenstorm]

Thanks, that’s what I was curious about. What about the DBO airstrip? Apparently they can land C-130s there. Can they bypass the roads altogether and just use that to supply Siachen? Also does cutting off the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh highway at Tiger Hill cut off Kargil too, or just Leh? In other words, is this point between Srinagar and Kargil, or Kargil and Leh?

Only an expert or someone with keen interest in that area can answer those questions. My views are based on random articles and google maps . But maintaining a prolonged military presence on the back of C-130s does not seem financially and tactically viable imo.

And yes the cut off point is between Srinagar and Kargil so Indians are at a strategic disadvantage in Kargil town. Though I believe we will be looking for some other cut off point next time. We caught them off guard in 99, those sort of chances does not come everyday.

 

[cric_man]

Thanks, that’s what I was curious about. What about the DBO airstrip? Apparently they can land C-130s there. Can they bypass the roads altogether and just use that to supply Siachen? Also does cutting off the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh highway at Tiger Hill cut off Kargil too, or just Leh? In other words, is this point between Srinagar and Kargil, or Kargil and Leh?

You cannot airlift heavy armament via C130s. Just not feasible. That is why I had mentioned, all major stuff is sent via land route prior to the winter freeze. US has supplied India with C17s & CH47 heavylift helos just for that purpose to rapidly airlift Men & equipment insubstantial number at short notice.
PLA just gave India a taste of its mobilization power by bringing in big reinforcement to the front within 24 hrs.

The Kargil episode of 99 was not to capture Kashmir. It had very limited objective i-e to be able to shut down Kargil-Dras-Siachen route. Had we been able to persevere for another 2-3 weeks, Indian positions in Siachen would have become untenable. They would have had to withdraw their troops from Siachen or risk getting them left to the elements.
It was a tactical masterstroke but ended being a strategic blunder.

 

[Nostalgic]

Only an expert or someone with keen interest in that area can answer those questions. My views are based on random articles and google maps . But maintaining a prolonged military presence on the back of C-130s does not seem financially and tactically viable imo.

And yes the cut off point is between Srinagar and Kargil so Indians are at a strategic disadvantage in Kargil town. Though I believe we will be looking for some other cut off point next time. We caught them off guard in 99, those sort of chances does not come everyday.

You cannot airlift heavy armament via C130s. Just not feasible. That is why I had mentioned, all major stuff is sent via land route prior to the winter freeze. US has supplied India with C17s & CH47 heavylift helos just for that purpose to rapidly airlift Men & equipment insubstantial number at short notice.
PLA just gave India a taste of its mobilization power by bringing in big reinforcement to the front within 24 hrs.

The Kargil episode of 99 was not to capture Kashmir. It had very limited objective i-e to be able to shut down Kargil-Dras-Siachen route. Had we been able to persevere for another 2-3 weeks, Indian positions in Siachen would have become untenable. They would have had to withdraw their troops from Siachen or risk getting them left to the elements.
It was a tactical masterstroke but ended being a strategic blunder.

Thanks, this is very insightful. So to summarize, although the Chinese can threaten the DSDBO road now from their new vantage points overlooking the Galwan river-Shyok river intersection, there’s still this Kargil-Dras-Siachen route. Is it true that there are certain heights we captured in 1999 and still hold? Could any of those threaten this route?

 

[Pakpak]

Thanks, this is very insightful. So to summarize, although the Chinese can threaten the DSDBO road now from their new vantage points overlooking the Galwan river-Shyok river intersection, there’s still this Kargil-Dras-Siachen route. Is it true that there are certain heights we captured in 1999 and still hold? Could any of those threaten this route?

I think point 5333 is still in our possession from Kargil

''The Point 5353 is at an aeral distance of 12 km from Dras, through which passes the strategic National Highway 1 of India linking Srinagar to Leh''

 

[Nostalgic]

I think point 5333 is still in our possession from Kargil

''The Point 5353 is at an aeral distance of 12 km from Dras, through which passes the strategic National Highway 1 of India linking Srinagar to Leh''

That’s about seven miles then. In military terms, is that enough to cause the Humsaaya Mulk discomfort?

 

[Pakpak]

That’s about seven miles then. In military terms, is that enough to cause the Humsaaya Mulk discomfort?

They have a few peaks near it but 5333 without a doubt is important as they have tried to retake it several times without success, one incident where they pounded it with thousands of shells and still couldn't retake it. They first denied not having it multiple times before admitting they don't have it. We can see a pattern of lying here constantly. I am waiting for the next installment of surgical strikes on China this time. Fake it till you make it!

 

[Bigboii]

That’s about seven miles then. In military terms, is that enough to cause the Humsaaya Mulk discomfort?

I guess put artillery around the area bomb the highway at night or something with no civilian casualties hopefully

 

[Sirris]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pakistan supporters in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Kashmir?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Kashmir</a> have evolved. Pakistan &#55356;&#56821;&#55356;&#56816; supporters online/offline, are not saying while China pushes India into a potential conflict in Ladakh, &#55356;&#56821;&#55356;&#56816; will exploit the opportunity and ‘liberate’ Kashmir. They seem to have discarded &#55356;&#56821;&#55356;&#56816;/ their false hopes. <a href="https://t.co/pIaa3MBqx9">https://t.co/pIaa3MBqx9</a></p>— Kashmir Intel (@kashmirosint) <a href="https://twitter.com/kashmirosint/status/1273648116118351874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 18, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[msb314]

Absolutely nothing to be gained by Pakistan from this situation - in my opinion..

 

[cric_man]

This whole thing started after India started barking about "retaking" AJK & GB thus directly threatening CPEC.
This is China's answer. By occupying Gulwan Valley they can directly impact Siachen. Keep in mind that Forces in Siachen get bulk of their winter supplies before the winter freeze. Once the roads are shut off, only minimal supplies can be airlifted.

Here is an updated analysis I found that makes sense.

1. China has outrightly rubbished India's Article 370, which sanctified annexation of Ladakh and its incorporation as a Union Territory. Ladakh is, thus, again a disputed territory up for grabs, according to China.

2. China has found it opportune to gauge the depth of the new-found Indo-US partnership, as well as geo-strategic limitations of the Indo-Pacific region at large.

3. China has put India on a subtle notice to avoid any interference in Pak-China projects like CPEC and Bhasha Dam, irrespective of their location in Gilgit-Baltistan. In future, if India moves against Pakistan in Gilgit-Baltistan, China will move against India in Ladakh (India has to pass through Ladakh to get into Gilgit-Baltistan).

4. By being in Ladakh, China can interfere with India's operations in Siachen.

5. China has rubbed Modi's nose in the wastelands of Galwan Valley, and has made it clear that India is no more than a regional thug.

6. China has clearly flexed its muscle, and completely ignored the naysayers who questioned its resolve.

7. Kashmir has gone from being a bilateral dispute into a trilateral dispute.

 

[ReverseHit]

Nothing militarily currently as the situation is not expected to escalate much further from here on. Pakistan could keep pestering China to bring up the issue of Ladakh (and thus Kashmir) in their talks with India.

Over the long run, I'm pretty Pakistan and China have worked out a plan to engage in a two-front war against India when it hits the fan.

 

[MenInG]

NEW DELHI: Pakistan has moved two divisions of troops along the LoC in occupied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan and Chinese officials are holding talks with cadres of terrorist outfit Al Badr to incite violence in J&K, as per intelligence inputs, indicating clearer signs of a China-Pak collaboration on the border.

Pakistan has moved almost 20,000 additional soldiers to LoC to match Chinese deployments on the LAC in the east. The level of troops Pakistan has deployed is more than what it did after the Balakot air strikes. Pakistani radars are believed to be fully activated all along the region too.

The simultaneous build up on the Pakistan and China borders and efforts to incite terrorism in Kashmir has brought the possibility of a two-front war and fighting terrorists in Kashmir, the worst case scenario strategic experts fear, closer to reality.

Sources said there have been a series of meetings between Chinese and Pakistani officials in recent weeks, followed by amassing of troops in Gilgit-Baltistan, the area that adjoins Ladakh on the north. The buildup comes at a time when thousands of Chinese soldiers have been aggressively deployed along LAC in eastern Ladakh, apart from intrusions at several points that has led to a tense standoff.

A build up in Gilgit-Baltistan would require additional responsibility for the Indian Army that has deployed a credible force in eastern Ladakh to counter China. After the bifurcation of J&K , Gilgit-Baltistan is part of the Union Territory of Ladakh, but occupied by Pakistan. The area adjoins Kargil-Drass where India fought a war to evacuate Pakistani intruders in 1999.

According to intelligence reports, Chinese officials have undertaken meetings with cadres of the Al Badr, a Pakistan-based terror group that has a history of wreaking violence in Kashmir. “The assessment is that China may provide support to revive the organisation. This is among the signs we have received that indicate Pakistan and China are collaborating on the ground,” sources said.

Earlier this month, J&K Police DG Dilbag Singh had said there were signs that the Al Badr, decimated long ago, was being revived for operations. These signs of collaboration are worrying as tensions continue on LAC, with talks failing to make any headway and PLA increasing concentration across eastern Ladakh, apart from Arunachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Sikkim.

As first reported by ET, India has been keeping an eye on airbases in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir after a Chinese refueller aircraft landed in Skardu earlier this week. Chinese air activity has increased opposite eastern Ladakh, raising the possibility of PLA Air Force (PLAAF) using airbases in Gilgit-Baltistan. Limited activity is being observed at the Skardu airbase where an IL 78 tanker of the Chinese air force landed earlier in the month.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ltistan-loc/articleshow/76718059.cms?from=mdr

 

[Zeshan547]

good move, let's turn up the heat on Mr. 56 inch. They are not capable of holding up vs China alone, imagine mighty Indian army vs 3 enemies together.

 

[Thomaskutty]

They are not capable of holding up vs China alone, imagine mighty Indian army vs 3 enemies together.

Which is the 3rd country?

 

[Adijazz1706]

Which is the 3rd country?

There is no 3rd country so dynno, the 3rd enemy could be the local Kashmiri populace or these AlBadr proxies I guess

 

[Thomaskutty]

There is no 3rd country so dynno, the 3rd enemy could be the local Kashmiri populace or these AlBadr proxies I guess

Not the kashmiri populace, maybe the Al-Badr proxy. But given that Imran has pledged in his UNGA speech never to use terror groups ever again from Pak soil, we shall expect him to keep his word.

 

[Mesozoic]

good move, let's turn up the heat on Mr. 56 inch. They are not capable of holding up vs China alone, imagine mighty Indian army vs 3 enemies together.

Don't fall into the delusion of "China did it. We can do it too" again.

LOC is a completely different story from the LAC. There's a reason why Pakistan haven't gained an inch of Kashmir since the Indian troops reached in 1948. Let me just leave it at that.

 

[Romali_rotti]

Don't fall into the delusion of "China did it. We can do it too" again.

LOC is a completely different story from the LAC. There's a reason why Pakistan haven't gained an inch of Kashmir since the Indian troops reached in 1948. Let me just leave it at that.

You just have to sympathize with them, Pakistanis are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Most of the time they went to any kind of major conflict with India, Pakistan have managed to go backwards. Going backwards is bit of an art in a way and Pakistanis have perfected this. However is this instance I don't think Pakistan have much of a choice, the Chinese would be ordering them to attack India even if they were against it during a major conflict.

 

[MenInG]

The military's media wing on Thursday termed reports by the Indian media that Pakistan had deployed troops along the Line of Control in Gilgit Baltistan region as "false and irresponsible".

Inter-Services Public Relations Director General Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar, via Twitter, said there was no truth to Chinese troops using the Skardu Airbase, saying that the reports were "false, irresponsible and far from truth".

"No such movement or induction of additional forces has taken place. We also vehemently deny presence of Chinese troops in Pakistan," he added.

Indian media outlets have claimed that Pakistan has deployed "almost 20,000 additional soldiers" along the LoC in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and GB "to match Chinese deployments on the LAC (Line of Actual Control) in the east".

"The level of troops Pakistan has deployed is more than what it did after the Balakot air strikes. Pakistani radars are believed to be fully activated all along the region too," a report by Economic Times said.

Furthermore, the publication claimed that meetings have been held between China and Pakistan officials and the former is also holding talks with the Al-Badr outfit in order to "incite violence" in occupied Kashmir.

The reports come after Prime Minister Imran Khan said on the floor of the parliament on Tuesday that Pakistan had "no doubt" that India was involved in the attempted attack on the Pakistan Stock Exchange in Karachi that took place earlier this week.

India is currently engaged in a conflict with China at the disputed LAC in the Galwan Valey of the Ladakh region. Last month, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a violent clash between the two armies, the deadliest in decades.

Pakistan has repeatedly expressed its concern that India may initiate a "false flag operation" to divert attention from its casualties in the conflict with China.

Both India and China have accused each other of instigating the clash between their forces in the valley.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1566543/n...-along-loc-china-using-skardu-airbase-dg-ispr

 

[Walawalkar]

To all the keyboard warriors here discussing some fantastic war strategies..Are you all gonna go and fight their on the border
This is not your Prime time drama series
Easy to type WAR on your wireless keyboard lying there in your living room sofa with AC temperature set at 18 deg c... Not easy for the families of those who fight there on the border..so give some rest to your dream battles and go watch ertugul to calm your adrenaline...
And by the way there are some seriously damn good war planning and plotting here.. India should better give up its stake on Arunachal Pradesh, Leh, laddakh and finally Jammu and Kashmir..

 

[MenInG]

New Delhi: The Indian Army does not see immediate plans by Pakistan to amass forces in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir at a time when India and China are in the midst of a standoff in Eastern Ladakh. At the same time, the Pakistani Army has brought forward some reserve formations in the area, the army's Srinagar Corps Commander said.

"As on today, I do not see any visible increase in deployment or any major movement opposite my area of responsibility. But Pakistan has upgraded defensive posturing, which they do when there is tension. We are prepared for any action," Lt General ** Raju, Corps Commander, 15 Corps, Srinagar, told NDTV.

Elaborating further, he said, "[Pakistan] has brought in additional reserve formations which [it] normally does to ensure [it is] stable. I do not see any other intention of Pakistan at this stage."

However, he said, the country still remains interested in provoking violence in Jammu and Kashmir and sending in terrorists.

"Pakistan's desire to send infiltrators is very high. [Terrorist] launch pads are full. Close to 300 people are waiting to infiltrate. My men waiting to receive them... This is Pakistan's primary take to vitiate the environment in the Valley," Lt General Raju said.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/no-...h-china-in-ladakh-2257588?pfrom=home-bigstory

 

[Pakpak]

New Delhi: The Indian Army does not see immediate plans by Pakistan to amass forces in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir at a time when India and China are in the midst of a standoff in Eastern Ladakh. At the same time, the Pakistani Army has brought forward some reserve formations in the area, the army's Srinagar Corps Commander said.

"As on today, I do not see any visible increase in deployment or any major movement opposite my area of responsibility. But Pakistan has upgraded defensive posturing, which they do when there is tension. We are prepared for any action," Lt General ** Raju, Corps Commander, 15 Corps, Srinagar, told NDTV.

Elaborating further, he said, "[Pakistan] has brought in additional reserve formations which [it] normally does to ensure [it is] stable. I do not see any other intention of Pakistan at this stage."

However, he said, the country still remains interested in provoking violence in Jammu and Kashmir and sending in terrorists.

"Pakistan's desire to send infiltrators is very high. [Terrorist] launch pads are full. Close to 300 people are waiting to infiltrate. My men waiting to receive them... This is Pakistan's primary take to vitiate the environment in the Valley," Lt General Raju said.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/no-...h-china-in-ladakh-2257588?pfrom=home-bigstory

Almost all 'terrorists' from Wani to other militants are Kashmiris from IOK. Now either there are no pads or our infiltrators vanish into a puff of smoke.

 

[Nostalgic]

Close to 300 people are waiting to infiltrate. My men waiting to receive them... This is Pakistan's primary take to vitiate the environment in the Valley," Lt General Raju said.

He makes it sound like they’re going to gatecrash a valima party.

 

[globalcitizen]

Now that the tensions are on other side as you all say, this is time to bring reforms in your country and not crib about a war

there is large scale corruption in your education systems, in house terrorist activities, falling economy, huge debts to a single country and world and ravaging pandemic at doors.. So stop fantasising and salivating about wars and see this as an opportune time to fix things

 

[Bhaijaan]

If the allegation of India being behind KSA attack are true then India might have already made the first move.