topspin
Test Debutant
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- Jul 16, 2018
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I am afraid buddy Pakistan missed the bus. Even if they win 4 matches and somehow get equal points as NZ/WI/Bang they would lag behind in net run rate. I think Pakistan will regret not scoring 300 in chase vs India.
for Pak, SA and WI to have any chance, they need to win all remaining games also one of the top 4 need to loss all their remaining games which is highly unlikely..
I wonder what is the best case scenario for Pakistan?
Obviously we need to win all our remaining games which is no easy task, but who do we need to win and lose for our sake? Will a couple of opposition matches being washed out help our cause? What happens if a couple of Indian/Australia/English/NZ games are washed out?
I am confused.
We are crazily asking England, Aus, NZ etc to lose.
But why does everyone believe Pakistan will win 4 on the trot ?
I find this optimism quite quite confusing.
I am confused.
We are crazily asking England, Aus, NZ etc to lose.
But why does everyone believe Pakistan will win 4 on the trot ?
I find this optimism quite quite confusing.
It's good to have a positive mindset. Why are you spreading negativity against Pakistan team ?
I am not spreading anything.
Okay lets hear it.
Why do u think Pakistan will beat SA, NZ and Bangladesh?
I am leaving out AFG because I dont want to insult our team by believing they could lose to AFG.
Because we beat England who are comfortably the best team in this tournament, at home and number 1 in the world.
We also dominated Aus for 50% of the game so could have won that.
SA,NZ and Bangladesh are nowhere near as good as the Aus,Eng or India. Why would we not be expecting a win?
We could lose but we go off favourites against Sa,BD and should turn over NZ. Stop being so pessmistic and focus on the task at hand please
Okay.
We are the best because we beat England, dominated Australia, rain gods stopped us from winning against Lanka, had a shocker against Windies and were under too much pressure against India.
After losing 3 games and having one washout, we will be favorites against South Africa, should beat NZ (who havent lost a game yet in the WC) and should also beat Bangladesh (who thrashed the same WI by hitting 320 runs in 41 odd overs while we were 100 all out).
So you can understand why I am not jumping up with joy at the supposed positvity or even finding any.
However, if you wanna dream till 23rd or maybe a bit later till NZ, sure why not.
Realistically the bottom 5 are all out.
SL are a very very poor side who would have two points but for rain. 0% chance.
SA - 6 games, 3 points. Out. 0% chance.
Afghanistan are out 0% chance.
3 teams with absolutely no chance.
Pakistan come next. 3 points from five games, would need to beat BD (who are in far better form), NZ (a better side) Afghanistan (who will be very up for that game and Pak hate being favourites) and SA. Not only do they need the four wins, which in itself is very unlikely if we're being realistic, and to avoid rain, which is entirely luck, even then it may not be enough considering the NRR is awful and NZ/Eng/Aus/Ind need only 2, 3,3 and 4 points respectively, 4 or 5 games. 1% chance is probably being generous.
Bangladesh have a half decent shot in that if they win 3 of their final 4 they have a solid shot. That they lost to NZ and England already will seriously hurt them though. Basically if they lose tomorrow, they are also almost certainly out.
Cant see anyone breaking into the Top 4. NZ were the most likely to miss out considering their remaining games but they've beaten all the non Big 3 sides bar Pakistan who they've left to play, and got a nice point vs India.
I can see teams stealing and breaking into top 4 spots. You being an Ireland fan plays a big factor in your opinion though.
I am confused.
We are crazily asking England, Aus, NZ etc to lose.
But why does everyone believe Pakistan will win 4 on the trot ?
I find this optimism quite quite confusing.
Not really. I dunno why people think I'm really biased. My beef with the format is obvious but from judging the tournament as a whole I try to be as fair as possible. If the 10 team format provided a cracker I'd still maintain its awful but I'd also admit its been entertaining. Its not though, there have been exactly as many hammerings as many others feared (Despite the guff about quality cricket only being said) and rain has had a big impact.
We can all agree SL/SA and Afg are out. That leaves BD and Pak. BD have a proper shot but thats entirely dependent on tomorrow, they win they blow the top 4 wide open, they lose the only side in touching distance falls even further behind.
Pakistan have a minute chance. Need to win every single game, which they sure as hell havent looked like doing, and hope other results go their favour and for upsets to occur, and not a single one has yet, aside maybe from Pak vs Eng.
The funny thing is, had they had it a 10 team WC but two groups of 5 we'd be in store for an absolutely cracking finish. Picture the top two make the semis, you could have
NZ
India
Pak
WI
SL
Eng
Aus
Ban
SA
Afg
Under current conditions, if we ignore games vs non group members that have taken place, you'd have
NZ - 3 from 2 games
India - 3 from 2 games
WI - 2 from 1
Pak - 1 from 2
SL - 1 from 1
Eng 6 from 3 games
Aus - 2 from 1 game
SA - 2 from 3 games
BD - 2 from 2 games
Afg - 0 from 3 games
That would set us up for some cracking group games. Aus vs BD tomorrow would have huge ramifications for 2nd spot. SA would still have an outside chance, Afg, despite being out, could wreck BD's bid for 2nd and thus that game remains vital.
In the first group, every side can still realistically qualify. Every game wide open. The format, although it still has allllll the issues for cricket globally that've said over and over, still at the very least is great from an entertainment perspective.
The real tragedy (and funny thing) about the 10 team format is that the ICC cant even do it in a way that entertains fansDo the above format and, I'll freely say right now, you have a cracking competition on your hands! Wont ever happen though because entertainment and excitement are bottom of the ICC's demands, All that matters is 1) Ind vs Pak (which still happens in my alternate format) and b) India playing as many games as humanely possible, hence the boredom of the next two weeks heading our way.
10 team WC is awful but I admit freely it could be exceptionally entertaining if done right. I'd actually be interested in watching it even without my team, especially since its cut throat nature is in line with the qualifier.
There are only 7 or 8 good teams in World Cricket.
All of these deserve to play each other to determine the true winner.
Groups are nonsense if you only have 10 teams.
This format is awesome.
If AUS looses tomorrow, does that give PAK a lifeline?
Yeah they just needed to add that qualifier and eliminator.
gives the whole table a life time (excluding afg and sa)
England have 8 points at the moment and these are the upcoming fixtures:
Versus Sri Lanka - win
Versus Australia - lose/washout
Versus India - lose
Versus New Zealand - lose
If England wins one and loses three they will have 10 points.
If England wins one, loses two and has one washout they will have 11 points.
Australia have also 8 points at the moment and these are the upcoming matches:
Versus Bangladesh - lose
Versus England - lose/washout
Versus New Zealand - lose
Versus South Africa - win
If Australia wins one and loses all the remaining matches they will have 10 points.
If Australia wins two and loses two they will have 12 points which will be enough for them.
So ideally what we should hope is that England vs Australia match gets washed out which means both will have 11 points if they win 1/4 matches and then it will all depend on the NRR.
Saj the best thing that could happen to Pakistan will be to finish 10th. I am thinking in the long run.The aim should now be to stay out of the relegation zone - the bottom 3.
Am glad its over. Could not take this torture anymore.
Which is as impossible as Nawaz Shareef becoming PM again.Not over yet...
If nz lose their remaining 4 matches and pak win theirs they go through.
There are only 7 or 8 good teams in World Cricket.
All of these deserve to play each other to determine the true winner.
Groups are nonsense if you only have 10 teams.
This format is awesome.
No, this format would have been awesome if all/most of the 10 teams were more or less equal. Problem is that there is a wide skill gulf between the top 4 teams & the rest. As a result, we are barely halfway through the contest & the 4 semifinalists are more or less decided barring any major fluke upset. I for one would prefer to have more knockouts where teams have even odds to cause an upset.
There are only 7 or 8 good teams in World Cricket.
All of these deserve to play each other to determine the true winner.
Groups are nonsense if you only have 10 teams.
This format is awesome.
Which is as impossible as Nawaz Shareef becoming PM again.
No other sport in the planet has this mentality. To be a world champion, regardless of format, progressing through the group, quarter, semi and then final is sufficient to be world champion.
Its not a problem in any other sport, no reason it should be in cricket. Nobody disputes Australia's titles on this basis. Part of me thinks the only reason its used is to somehow make 1992 WC worth "more" than any before or after it, which is nonsense.
Only a few hours remain and this will mark the end of Bangladesh, Sri lanka, West Indies, South Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan. RIP brothers![]()
Will catch you tomorrow in match thread. Shakib with another ton?
Not sure why people keep thinking Pakistan will win their last four games. It will be a comeback of epic proportions if we manage to do that, specially under a defeated Sarfraz right now.I can see teams stealing and breaking into top 4 spots. You being an Ireland fan plays a big factor in your opinion though.
I’m afraid Pakistan’s WC dream is over.
These scenarios are very unlikely to happen.
I guess India, eng,aus, nz are in sf.
I can’t see Sri Lanka beating England and India.
Also NZ losing 4/4 is highly unlikely.
West Indies and Pakistan have equal chances to go to the semis imo.
Both teams can get to 11 points if they win all the remaining matches.
Bangladesh lose tonight and they're out. They're not beating Pakistan and India.But I am talking technically, what are the possibilities. Right now, all teams are in.
However, one by one, teams will start dropping out this week. And if results go a certain way, we will only have Eng, India, Aus, NZ and Ban left with a mathematical chance. Bangladesh could be in the game until the last week if they can beat Australia and Afghanistan.
Bangladesh lose tonight and they're out. They're not beating Pakistan and India.
England have 4 games in hand
They will beat SRL and get to 10 points
Next 3 games vs NZ ,IND and Aus
If they lose all 3 and Pakistan win 4 , Pakistan qualifies
Australia have 4 games also
They will beat BNG and get to 10 points
Next 3 game vs SA,ENg and NZ if they lose these
Pakistan wins 4 , Pakistan qualifies
NZ to lose all 4 and Pakistan to win 4 to qualify
With India no chance they have pretty easy wins coming on the way
Looks like Australia or England can be only spots which we have chance with but very unlikely
England have 4 games in hand
They will beat SRL and get to 10 points
Next 3 games vs NZ ,IND and Aus
If they lose all 3 and Pakistan win 4 , Pakistan qualifies
Australia have 4 games also
They will beat BNG and get to 10 points
Next 3 game vs SA,ENg and NZ if they lose these
Pakistan wins 4 , Pakistan qualifies
NZ to lose all 4 and Pakistan to win 4 to qualify
With India no chance they have pretty easy wins coming on the way
Looks like Australia or England can be only spots which we have chance with but very unlikely
They're unlikely to beat Aus and there is zero chance of beating India. If they do win 3 out of 4 they will deserve to be in the Semis.1. Even if they lose tonight, they are not out mathematically. But yeah, realistically they will be out, as they will need to win all remaining matches and Aus to lose all remaining ones.
2. Bangladesh have a 40:60 chance of beating Pakistan. If the pitch starts to get drier, Bangladesh's chance will increase. They have better spinners and better batsmen. If the pitch has some seam movement and weather is conducive to swing, then Pakistan will have a slight advantage.
Bangladesh lose tonight and they're out. They're not beating Pakistan and India.
I meant you're not beating both, you may beat Pakistan but you're not going to beat India and you'll have to do that if you're to progress if you lose today.We are favorites against Pakistan. I said 6 months ago we are 51-49 favorites against Pakistan. But having seen the world cup so far, I'd say Bangladesh enter as 65-35 favorites. You have to factor that having beaten Pakistan in 4 consecutive ODIs, we don't fear them like we used to. At the same time, with the current political climate in BD, Pakistan is the last team our players would want to lose to.
If anything has been proven this world cup, it is that BD can beat any team on their day. So they can certainly beat India, unlikely as it is.
We are favorites against Pakistan. I said 6 months ago we are 51-49 favorites against Pakistan. But having seen the world cup so far, I'd say Bangladesh enter as 65-35 favorites. You have to factor that having beaten Pakistan in 4 consecutive ODIs, we don't fear them like we used to. At the same time, with the current political climate in BD, Pakistan is the last team our players would want to lose to.
If anything has been proven this world cup, it is that BD can beat any team on their day. So they can certainly beat India, unlikely as it is.
I wonder if the Pakistani players will play in a more relaxed frame of mind now that the expectations of qualifying are over? I mean the India game is out of the way as well. What is there to fear now?
Its not a problem in any other sport, no reason it should be in cricket. Nobody disputes Australia's titles on this basis. Part of me thinks the only reason its used is to somehow make 1992 WC worth "more" than any before or after it, which is nonsense.
No you're not favourites. Don't kid yourself mate.
65-35?)
To pak you mean
England have 8 points at the moment and these are the upcoming fixtures:
Versus Sri Lanka - win
Versus Australia - lose/washout
Versus India - lose
Versus New Zealand - lose
If England wins one and loses three they will have 10 points.
If England wins one, loses two and has one washout they will have 11 points.
Australia have also 8 points at the moment and these are the upcoming matches:
Versus Bangladesh - lose
Versus England - lose/washout
Versus New Zealand - lose
Versus South Africa - win
If Australia wins one and loses all the remaining matches they will have 10 points.
If Australia wins two and loses two they will have 12 points which will be enough for them.
So ideally what we should hope is that England vs Australia match gets washed out which means both will have 11 points if they win 1/4 matches and then it will all depend on the NRR.
I guess India, eng,aus, nz are in sf.
It was just a scenario.Are you predicting Bangladesh to defeat Australia?
If Australia losses to all of England, New Zealand and South Africa, then they still can be eliminated.
If England losses to all of Australia, India and New Zealand, then they can also be eliminated.
If New Zealand lose to all of England, Australia, Pakistan and West Indies, they will be eliminated.
If Australia losses to all of England, New Zealand and South Africa, then they still can be eliminated.
If England losses to all of Australia, India and New Zealand, then they can also be eliminated.
If New Zealand lose to all of England, Australia, Pakistan and West Indies, they will be eliminated.
If Australia losses to all of England, New Zealand and South Africa, then they still can be eliminated.
If England losses to all of Australia, India and New Zealand, then they can also be eliminated.
If New Zealand lose to all of England, Australia, Pakistan and West Indies, they will be eliminated.
You are not only hoping for miracles, you are actually relying upon miracles for your team to advance.![]()
No.2 could have been likely if Nz was bit stronger.
No 3 is our only hope tbh
Why not number 1?
Australia can lose to England and New Zealand on current form. South Africa has to win at some stage, might be against Australia where they click as a team knowing that they can't qualify and playing without pressure.