This indeed the best chance Pakistan has. The reasons are :
1. Sharma ji is playing slow like Warner in this world cup. He will put pressure on other 2 top order to score at higher rates
2. Dhawan is ruled out for 3 weeks. The only player in top 3 who goes after bowling right from the outset
3. He doesn't seem as fluent as he was before. Bowling outside off stump channel initially will get his wicket for sure this time.
4. No.4 is a big question mark now ????
Karthik/Shankar are too lame a players to occupy that and will be under extreme pressure to perform. Here is the chance to open the flood gates.
5. The no.4 problem exposes the lower order like dhoni to come above their normal timings after 35 overs which will fall in hands of Pakistan .
6. Dhoni exposed before 35 overs always plays slowly and will waste lot of deliveries. Spinners and pacers can capitalize and put further pressure on dhoni's batting partner.
7. Jhadhav is a hit or miss and usually plays the cheeky cameos after 45 overs. With him coming early to bat will force him to play differently than his usually role.
8. Hardik Pandya is like a rich man's afridi but he can't construct innings like yuvraj or dhoni. He will crumble under pressure and hit out at amir and wahab. This is were the chance lies and can get him early for cheap.
9. Then you have bhuvi and the tail to demolish with bouncers and Yorkers
10. Overall ! The strategy to demolish Indian batting line up is as simple as above.
11. Coming to bowling ! Bhuvi is always a liability without swing. Give respect to Bumrah and attack bhuvi . He starts experimenting with bowling if attacked and there lies his weakness
12. Bumrah is good and is in form. Take singles of him most of the time and upset his rhythm of bowling at same batsman for 3+ balls at a time.
13. Hardik Pandya is like old razzaq . His role is similar. Not a match winning baller so take full advantage of this weak link right from start and force Kohli to bring in Jhadhav to share overs of 5th bowler weakness. This is the biggest advantage for Pakistan.
14. Kuldeep is not in form like his buddy Chahal. He will dish bad deliveries and also he upsets the balance that Indian bowling had in the middle overs so milk Chahal and take on Kuldeep when he is down.
15. Chahal and Bumrah needs to be given respect and shod be milked for single and 2s.
With all these strategies and India's chinks int the th, surely Pakistan has more than a better chance of beating India on the given day.