Labour leadership: Result will be announced on 4 April [Post #1698]

Strong rumours on Twitter today of another labour leadership challenge coming.

Every year until he quits, I expect. Though with moderates leaving the Party in droves I think he will hang on. It will take Clive Lewis' nightmare scenario of a domino effect of Northern seats lost to UKIP to unseat Corbyn, while the Tories continue to laugh, and laugh, and laugh.
 
Word is circulating that Corbyn is going to stand down as Leader.
 
Yeah, lots of noise about resignation at the moment.
 
Brexit has been officially triggered, in the Commons at least.

What next for Labour?
 
Brexit has been officially triggered, in the Commons at least.

What next for Labour?

I think Jezza should have allowed a free vote. Then his MPs in Leave areas could vote Leave without fear of losing seats to UKIP, and those in Remain could vote Remain without risking losing to the LDs.

Now Jezza's twitter feed is alive with Labour members denouncing him this morning.

Incredibly, he seems bent on hanging on.
 
I think Jezza should have allowed a free vote. Then his MPs in Leave areas could vote Leave without fear of losing seats to UKIP, and those in Remain could vote Remain without risking losing to the LDs.

Now Jezza's twitter feed is alive with Labour members denouncing him this morning.

Incredibly, he seems bent on hanging on.

lol oh dear he's being criticised by a small vocal minority in the twitter echo chamber
 
lol oh dear he's being criticised by a small vocal minority in the twitter echo chamber

@s28, it's his own echo chamber! You told me that his advantage over Michael Foot is that he's got an army on social media.... going by twitter, 98% of said army seems to be in mutiny.
 
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Two LD council seat gains from CON, one LAB hold, one UKIP gain from IND overnight.
 
If this was Australia we'd have knifed him years ago
 
He's been knifed by traitors in his own ranks and he has still seen off Cameron, Boris Johnson etc

He'll see off May as well
 
If this was Australia we'd have knifed him years ago

They tried. The peculiar current constitution of the Labour Party protected him. Under the old rules he would not have had a sniff of Leadership. They are playing the long game now - waiting until Labour are annihilated at the next General Election.
 
The Lib Dems are now almost polling ahead of UKIP again, who I expect to gradually fade into obscurity now that their single issue has been sorted out.

I think the Tories will control the British government for a long time.

Labour may challenge again in 2020 if a centrist leader is in charge. As long as it's not Owen Smith LOL - bloody hopeless on Question Time last night.
 
Clive Lewis is probably the man going forward. The hard left and the Labour liberals would accept a soft left candidate. He passed out of Sandhurst as an infantry officer and served in Afghanistan, so at least has some prior experience of management unlike Jezza. He would be a hard man for the Tory press to posit as a Britain-hater.
 
This is from page 36 of Tony Benn's diary:

"To Bristol for a recording of a programme for the younger generation. What emerged was:

1. Great ignirance about Parliament and its work.
2. Cynicism about politicians and their sincerity.
3. Great gap between politicians and young people.
4. No inspiration of young people by politicians.
5. Healthy disregard of politicians' conceit.
6. Dislike of party or intra-party squabbles except entertainment."

That's dated Saturday 23rd October 1955. Plus ça change :))
 
So can Labour hang on in Stoke and Copeland?

Paul Nuttall's farcical behaviour in recent times will probably hand Stoke to Labour. However things don't look as good for them in Copeland - 7 years of Tory rule and Labour could lose a by-election to the sitting government. I wonder how Corbyn fan-boys spin that one.
 
Paul Nuttall's farcical behaviour in recent times will probably hand Stoke to Labour. However things don't look as good for them in Copeland - 7 years of Tory rule and Labour could lose a by-election to the sitting government. I wonder how Corbyn fan-boys spin that one.

Probably blame "the MSM".

What I am hearing from Stoke on twitter is that the Labour effort is listless, and that UKIP support is also falling - hard to vote for someone so ludicrous. This will be tight.
 
It's by-election day tomorrow. I think Labour will hold Stoke but the Tories will take Copeland.
 
"Extraordinary"

"Incredible"

Just some of the adjectives being used to describe Labour winning Conservative council seat in Basingstoke!

So the fake news media and fake Polls have been telling everybody Labour is 18 points behind the Conservatives nationally

Funny then that Labour score a 31% swing against the Tories in an Army town like Basingstoke

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A 31.1% swing to Labour in Basingstoke & Deane got Tom Watson like <a href="https://t.co/drbFyintEg">pic.twitter.com/drbFyintEg</a></p>— Adam Payne (@adampayne26) <a href="https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/834388511260295171">22 February 2017</a></blockquote>
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Strong performance by the Tories to win Copeland.

Corbyn needs to step us his game in opposition before 2020 if he is losing mini-battles like this. He can start by investing resource into scouting out some good shadow cabinet ministers. Richard Burgon, shadow justice for example was being interviewed on prison reform yesterday and he completely bombed - way out of his depth.
 
Strong performance by the Tories to win Copeland.

Corbyn needs to step us his game in opposition before 2020 if he is losing mini-battles like this. He can start by investing resource into scouting out some good shadow cabinet ministers. Richard Burgon, shadow justice for example was being interviewed on prison reform yesterday and he completely bombed - way out of his depth.

Very few capable MPs want to work with him. I think Sir Kier is just biding his time, gaining front bench experience for the future when Labour get a credible Leader again.

I am glad that Labour held off the ludicrous Nuttall. If he cannot get elected in Stoke, no chance.

But Copeland is a disaster for JC. First time a sitting government has won a by-election in 34 years....
 
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"ITV's Chris Ship: "Have you at any point this morning looked in the mirror and thought could the problem be me?
Corbyn: "No. Next question.""
 
That's an admirable attitude to have but power is addictive and do you think Labour MP's would accept say 5-10 years of introspection and being out of power?

Fifteen minimum, now [MENTION=7898]Gabbar Singh[/MENTION].
 
Tories take Kensal (Stoke) from Labour as Labou's vote collapses, switching to Indy.
 
Tories take Kensal (Stoke) from Labour as Labou's vote collapses, switching to Indy.

It was Kersal in Salford, Robert. It's one of the most Jewish areas in the country. For once, Corbynistas can legitimately blame 'the jews' (erm sorry I mean the Zionists) for a defeat and they would be correct. :)

Nevertheless it's pretty embarrassing if Labour cannot even hold seats in Salford.

Labour's antisemitism problem is coming back to bite them.
 
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It was Kersal in Salford, Robert. It's one of the most Jewish areas in the country. For once, Corbynistas can legitimately blame 'the jews' (erm sorry I mean the Zionists) for a defeat and they would be correct. :)

Nevertheless it's pretty embarrassing if Labour cannot even hold seats in Salford.

Labour's antisemitism problem is coming back to bite them.
Ah, that will teach me to post at 6.22 am.... Was this an antisemitism thing, or local issues? Nevertheless shocking that Labour are losing support in the North after six years of Tory austerity.
 
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I like Corbyn but finally agree with [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] since he has taken over the party has been in turmoil, it's an absolute mess; labour need a leader that inspires not just the masses but from within, when everyone is not on the same page objectives can never be achieved
 
I like Corbyn but finally agree with [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] since he has taken over the party has been in turmoil, it's an absolute mess; labour need a leader that inspires not just the masses but from within, when everyone is not on the same page objectives can never be achieved

They urgently need someone who can garner support from the unions, membership and the PLP and who can manage consistent messaging. Somehow they have to get back the defectors to UKIP and Libs. I like a lot of their ideas and think much of the electorate does too, but the leadership is hopeless and not a credible government in waiting and I think the electorate sees that.
 
Ah, that will teach me to post at 6.22 am.... Was this an antisemitism thing, or local issues? Nevertheless shocking that Labour are losing support in the North after six years of Tory austerity.

The main local issue was the Salford City Football stadium. The council recently signed off on its redevelopment and the independent candidate in this by election ran on an anti stadium platform.

http://salfordstar.com/article.asp?id=3655
 
I live in the North and it is definitely swinging towards the Tories at the moment. There is no faith in the Labour Party's current incarnation.

If Theresa May calls a snap election after triggering Article 50, she will take close to 400 seats.
 
If Theresa May calls a snap election after triggering Article 50, she will take close to 400 seats.

May cannot, under the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011, unless 2/3 of Parliament votes for it. Unless the Act is repealed.
 
May cannot, under the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011, unless 2/3 of Parliament votes for it. Unless the Act is repealed.

If all Tory MPs voted for it, and 50% of Labour MPs (who might see this as the quickest route to force out Corbyn and McDonnell) voted for it, there is your two-thirds right there.
 
Corbyn himself says he'll vote for an early election. Still can't see it happening though.

Jeremy Corbyn has explicitly disclosed for the first time that he will instruct his MPs to back an early general election if the Prime Minister wants to call one.

In an exclusive interview with The Independent, the Labour leader said his party will give Theresa May the parliamentary numbers she would need to bring about an election before 2020.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.in...-alliance-liberal-democrats-a7489891.html?amp
 
I live in the North and it is definitely swinging towards the Tories at the moment. There is no faith in the Labour Party's current incarnation.

Finished in Scotland and struggling in the North. Labour is fast becoming a London only party. Thank god they have a sensible chap like Mayor Khan leading the efforts in London although ironically Corbyn fans don't have much time for Khan - I guess they don't like winners.
 
Finished in Scotland and struggling in the North. Labour is fast becoming a London only party. Thank god they have a sensible chap like Mayor Khan leading the efforts in London although ironically Corbyn fans don't have much time for Khan - I guess they don't like winners.

Precisely - winners have to make compromises in order to win. The hard left is all about the pure ideologue. They would rather stay pure than win, which is why they lose.
 
Overnight in the council elections:

CON gain from LAB in Broxbourne
CON gain from UKIP in Derby
LD gain from CON in Oxfordshre with a 32% swing.
 
Hammond, May and the Tories have created an ingenious smokescreen by raising NI payments for the self-employed by an almost entirely negligible amount. It is all that anyone including Labour are talking about, and meanwhile the remainder of the budget goes unchallenged, everyone will have forgotten about it in a fortnight, and the Conservatives continue to quietly run the country's affairs in their own way. Trump-esque diversion tactics working very well here.
 
[MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] I'm not sure they're that clever. Sure it seems incredible that such a big deal is being made out of such a small change (yes it's a manifesto pledge but then which government hasn't u-turned on a manifesto pledges) but I don't think they've created the fiasco themselves (well other than actually introducing the policy).

I think it's just an opportunity for the likes of the Mail and the Sun to have a go at Hammond because they think he's not pro Brexit enough.

As for Labour's reponse - Corbyn was useless in parliament. His response was almost as drab and lacklustre as the budget itself.
 
I am starting to think that right-wing Labour MPs are giving up. I would like them to join the LDs, who need their brains and skills, but it is hard to walk from a movement one has put decades into.

The Labour Party has done its job, really. Whom does it represent any more? Union membership has halved since 1980. Public sector lower-paid workers, I suppose. New Labour was its last hurrah. It will form a rump, but I cannot see it forming a Government.

The Tories will get 400 seats at the next GE. We are effectively a one-party state now and that is very bad for democracy.
 
I am starting to think that right-wing Labour MPs are giving up. I would like them to join the LDs, who need their brains and skills, but it is hard to walk from a movement one has put decades into.

The Labour Party has done its job, really. Whom does it represent any more? Union membership has halved since 1980. Public sector lower-paid workers, I suppose. New Labour was its last hurrah. It will form a rump, but I cannot see it forming a Government.

The Tories will get 400 seats at the next GE. We are effectively a one-party state now and that is very bad for democracy.

It's going to end up like V For Vendetta in the UK.
 
That's the beauty of Corbyn he can lead the Resistance in the House or on the streets. The wisdom of the 600k Labour selectorate.

Tories with just 24% of the electorate getting 66% of the seats would show the system for the sham it is
 
That's the beauty of Corbyn he can lead the Resistance in the House or on the streets. The wisdom of the 600k Labour selectorate.

Yep, collaborating with Tory Brexit.

And that 600K is not translating into any gains in seats. 1600 of them were in Richmond, and not even that many came out to vote Labour.
 
Tories left an open goal regarding the NICS reversal. Corbyn should have gone for the kill at PMQ. He was hopeless and May got away with it.
 
Really poor u-turn by the Tories. They should have stuck to their guns. And even then Corbyn probably hasn't managed to increase his U.K.-wide approval rating. Lols
 
Don't cry Robert.Bit sore the LieDemFightback not going too well?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Westminster voting intention:<br><br>CON: 44% (-)<br>LAB: 27% (+2)<br>LDEM: 10% (-)<br>UKIP: 9% (-2)<br><br>(via YouGov)</p>— Britain Elects (@britainelects) <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/841779798133334016">14 March 2017</a></blockquote>
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Don't cry Robert.Bit sore the LieDemFightback not going too well?

Wow, we are up to third place! Thank you for giving me this lift. It is nice when out doorstepping.
 
Really poor u-turn by the Tories. They should have stuck to their guns. And even then Corbyn probably hasn't managed to increase his U.K.-wide approval rating. Lols
Scared of upsetting the Fail and Sun readers. Craven. I thought the policy made sense, as there are so many more self-employed people now.
 
Tim Farron giving it large at the Lib Dem spring conference in York. His goal is to replace the Labour Party outright! Dream big.
 
I don't want to make excuses for Corbyn, the polls speak for themselves, but we need to look beyond one individual if we're to accurately analyse Labour's malaise.

Progressive, centre-left parties across the West are struggling right now.

We've underestimated the effect of the migrant crisis which has turbo charged the existing anxieties working-class communities had about immigration and multiculturalism. The left have been left floundering in the wake of the rise of the populist right on this issue, unable to sufficiently address peoples' concerns.

If the argument is that Jeremy Corbyn's hard left agenda is a recipe for failure - remind me how Hillary Clinton fared last November ? A DLC Democrat straight from her husband's school of Third Way centrism and got hammered. The answers are not easy.
 
footnote to that Hillary up against the most obvious and gratuitous sexist and racist troll the Republicans could come up with and she still lost women and black voters to him

depressing

the neo-liberal corporatist Left needs to realise they can't win on socially liberal identity politics alone it is the economy stupid

Sanders came from nowhere with that as has Corbyn

income and wealth inequality is off the scale Capitalism needs saving from itself
 
This week we had Tory ex-Chancellor George Osborne congratulated by Sadiq Khan and Tony Blair on getting a job as Evening Standard editor. There certainly seems to be something in rumours of a new 'Centrist' party of failures/incompetents/war criminals about to be created. IT will be a huge joke and fail badly but then it's goal will not be to gain power but simply to split the 'centrist/left' vote and thus entrench Tories in power just as the SDP did in the 1980s

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Report of chit-chat about a new centre party from <a href="https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound">@ShippersUnbound</a> Sunday Times £ <a href="https://t.co/rAvXPsXn44">https://t.co/rAvXPsXn44</a> <a href="https://t.co/tlddIZqbnj">pic.twitter.com/tlddIZqbnj</a></p>— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/835872422792429569">26 February 2017</a></blockquote>
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I am starting to think that right-wing Labour MPs are giving up. I would like them to join the LDs, who need their brains and skills, but it is hard to walk from a movement one has put decades into.

The Labour Party has done its job, really. Whom does it represent any more? Union membership has halved since 1980. Public sector lower-paid workers, I suppose. New Labour was its last hurrah. It will form a rump, but I cannot see it forming a Government.

The Tories will get 400 seats at the next GE. We are effectively a one-party state now and that is very bad for democracy.

Yes but no but yes.

One thing that I learned from the Gang of Four and the whole SDP experiment was that you cannot create an electable new centrist party in the UK - not even with the likes of Michael Foot and Derek Hatton on the loose in the Labour Party.

The only way to break Conservative rule is to have a John Smith in charge of the Labour Party. From there you can have a Blair or a Brown.

I live in Australia where the leaders (and policies) of the Labour Party and our equivalent of the Conservatives are 100% interchangeable. It's lovely. And the country develops and goes forward because it is under never-ending centrist rule.

But that's not going to happen in the UK. And as I argued at the time, Ed Miliband's downfall was making the stupid commitment not to go into coalition with the SNP.

The only political future I see in the UK is a decade of Conservative austerity, ultimately driven by a post-Brexit low-tax, low-services model.

And then we will become America, with 20% of female university students supporting themselves by prostitution, and working class single parents working 2 full-time jobs and in doing so neglecting their kids who will do drugs and crime by night.

At that time a moderate Labour leader - my money is on Andy Burnham - will form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in about 2025. But by then Scotland will have gone, and the north will be seriously considering whether it prefers a future with Scotland rather than the southeast.

I saw in the Scotland thread that [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] has never really contemplated a choice for the north between union with southern England or Scotland.

But I think by 2025 there will be two parallel nations operating something like this:

Scotland: high taxes, universal free education and healthcare, median wage around 22,000 pounds in 2017 money. High taxes will mean very few BMW or Mercedes cars on the road because disposable income for the middle class and above will be limited.

England: low taxes, user-pays for education and healthcare, median wage around 30,000 pounds in 2017 money. Lots of conspicuous wealth, abolition of minimum wage will mean introduction of maids for the upper middle classes and above, but widespread poverty too, with many people working 2 full-time jobs like in the USA and rapid expansion of drug gangs in poor areas.

If you ask a teacher or a nurse or a policeman in Sheffield which model suits them better, they will not pick the low-tax, low-services one.
 
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Very brave of you to make such a verbose prediction about 2025.
As I've said to various wannabe 'mystic megs' on here who simply parrot the asinine consensus of the 'commentariat' telling us what we should all think, who predicted Global Financial Crisis in 2007 ? Clegg being in power in 2009 ? Corbyn being leader of Labour Party in 2014 ? Brexit, Trump? Leicester winning the Premiership ever.

nate_silver_rect.jpg
 
I don't want to make excuses for Corbyn, the polls speak for themselves, but we need to look beyond one individual if we're to accurately analyse Labour's malaise.

Progressive, centre-left parties across the West are struggling right now.

We've underestimated the effect of the migrant crisis which has turbo charged the existing anxieties working-class communities had about immigration and multiculturalism. The left have been left floundering in the wake of the rise of the populist right on this issue, unable to sufficiently address peoples' concerns.

If the argument is that Jeremy Corbyn's hard left agenda is a recipe for failure - remind me how Hillary Clinton fared last November ? A DLC Democrat straight from her husband's school of Third Way centrism and got hammered. The answers are not easy.

In some ways, Trump is to the left of Hilary.

As I continually state, there is room for a British hard left party, which might profit given competent leadership. A centre-left Coalition might be possible.

But the tectonic plates of politics are shifting. Right vs Left seems to mean less than Liberalism vs right wing Populism.
 
If the argument is that Jeremy Corbyn's hard left agenda is a recipe for failure - remind me how Hillary Clinton fared last November ? A DLC Democrat straight from her husband's school of Third Way centrism and got hammered. The answers are not easy.

To be fair to Hillary, and I'm certainly not a fan of the warmongering witch, she got more votes than any other presidential candidate in history except Barack Obama and got almost 3 million more votes than Trump. She didn't get hammered imo.
 
To be fair to Hillary, and I'm certainly not a fan of the warmongering witch, she got more votes than any other presidential candidate in history except Barack Obama and got almost 3 million more votes than Trump. She didn't get hammered imo.

I hear you but the Democratic Party under Obama over the last 8 years have sustained heavy losses despite following a generally centrist agenda. 69 out of the 99 state legislatures are controlled by the Republicans, they've lost both houses of Congress and lost 13 governorships.

The solutions are not simple. Maybe progressive parties need to start tacking right on social issues but particularly immigration, which is a white-hot issue that we've ran away from for too long. Labour cannot expect to hold onto its Northern heartlands by supporting EU freedom of movement.

If mainstream parties, without co-opting the obnoxious bigotry and racism, are can be seen to understand peoples' concerns, then you could reverse the far-right's momentum. Look at UKIP under Theresa May who've slipped behind the Lib Dems in the polls. Post-Brexit they've no reason to exist.

At the same time progressives have to promote a populist but fiscally responsible economic agenda.
 
At the same time progressives have to promote a populist but fiscally responsible economic agenda.

I think this is the issue. and I think thats the underpinning success of the tory party too - the xenophobia in my mind is largely a symptom of economic worries. so long as labour continue a policy of rewarding entitlement and penalising the middle classes, they will struggle to garner enough support in my opinion.

its scandalous that the ultra-rich for both parties remain unscathed and yet provide the solution that is needed. its a surprise and I think Corby's only but crucial weakness that his economic policies are nonsensical, and he still shies away from going after the billionaires and aristocracy with billions in trusted properties immune from inheritance taxes.
 
Labour is a broad church and a democracy. Corbyn is a consensus builder rather than previous autocratic top down leadership. e.g. Canvassing widely for input into National Policy Forum. It takes time to turn around a supertanker more so if the previous Captain is hanging onto the wheel.

Going early with any tax and spend promise would simply be a free run for Murdoch/Dacre press to spread FUD.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I want to open up Labour to the ideas, knowledge and energy of all our members to shape our policy. Take part: <a href="https://t.co/j3c8VFanW3">https://t.co/j3c8VFanW3</a></p>— Jeremy Corbyn MP (@jeremycorbyn) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/842811787502411776">17 March 2017</a></blockquote>
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Labour is a broad church and a democracy. Corbyn is a consensus builder rather than previous autocratic top down leadership. e.g. Canvassing widely for input into National Policy Forum. It takes time to turn around a supertanker more so if the previous Captain is hanging onto the wheel.

How do you think he's doing?
 
In other news, George Galloway is running in Manchester Gorton.

That should split the Labour vote nicely. In a pro-Remain area, the Lib Dems could sneak a win.
 
George is finished I'm afraid, following his empty open top bus campaign didn't his share of the London mayoral vote get rounded down to 0% in some exit polls...
 
GG got about 150,000 votes in London Mayoral election I believe. I don't think he should disrupt Labour's historic all-BAME shortlist though.
 
Was quite surprised to see the post on his Facebook yesterday, where he appeared to call out the 'all-Asian' Labour shortlist as a negative and position himself as the alternative.

But then who can forget the (successful) "God knows who is a Muslim and who is not - I George Galloway have never touched alcohol and my opponents sit in the pub every night" leafleting campaign from Bradford West.

I don't agree with the majority of his political positions nor his hard-left economic views, but I respect his achievements and love his grasp of the English language. As a fan, of course he has overcome the odds before, but I don't see it this time - I think he should retire.
 
Do not adjust your sets... The Times They Are Achanging

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Britain's left-wing Labour gets historic win in City of London <a href="https://t.co/xi3VV5BOMf">https://t.co/xi3VV5BOMf</a> <a href="https://t.co/oKvki4d0ET">pic.twitter.com/oKvki4d0ET</a></p>— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) <a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/845195249622253568">24 March 2017</a></blockquote>
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I am most surprised that London Borough of Westminster isn't solid Labour given the poverty there.

Meanwhile in the Toryville of Somerset, the Lib Dems get a council seat of the Tories with a 48% increase in the vote.
 
Now UKIP lose their one MP.

After the failure of Trumpcare yesterday - its a bad couple of days for the alt-right.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jeremy Corbyn has spent his life fighting for justice. True leadership isn't about posturing, it's about integrity. And he has it in spades. <a href="https://t.co/k2rxqqQ0zX">pic.twitter.com/k2rxqqQ0zX</a></p>— EalingLabour4Corbyn (@EL4JC) <a href="https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/847154893618065408">29 March 2017</a></blockquote>
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