Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[awan_from_soon]

I encourage Pakistani posters to examine the results of the elections here in Karnataka from a couple of months ago.

The BJP swept the polls and the incumbent Congress government was reduced to shreds, yet aligning with the JDS ensured that they had just enough to stay in power, although they had to sacrifice the Chief Minsiter's seat to the JDS's Kumaraswamy. As for him, he just wanted to be kingmaker prior to the election, and he ended up becoming king. Total farce.

Replace BJP with PTI, the Congress with the PML(N) and the JDS with the PPP and the same thing could span out. You might end up with that turnip Bilawal Bhutto as your PM. Watch out!

That's a very good summation of the situation. Primarily for two reasons,; PPP are pitching themselves as kingmakers in the upcoming elections and the Sharif family is divided. Nawaz wants to hold on to his political legacy so it gets transferred to his daughter Maryam and then her son, Junaid. Meanwhile, the situation is ripe for Shahbaz to divert it to himself and then his son Hamza Shahbaz. In any case, PMLN parliamentarians after the elections would be split in their allegiance. A split that PPP can capitalize on if they decide to join hands with the PMLN.

Meanwhile, the results of the Karnatka elections are eerily similar to what is expected from the Pakistani general elections.

 

[PakWarrior]

From ground reports in Punjab(the province that will decide who comes into power). :

It's going to be a nail biting contest guys. It really is touch and go.

For PTI to win 120 seats (maybe more):

90% of fifty/fifty seats and 90% of swing seats must go their way on the day in Punjab.

If 50% of the fifty/fifty seats and swing seats go their way then they will win around 110 to 118 seats.

If none of the fifty/fifty seats or swing seats go their way then they will win between 88 to 98 seats.

I can't emphasise enough how nail biting this is going to be.

 

[PakWarrior]

Even getting 30% of fifty/fifty and swing seats in PTI's favour is going to be a HUGE TASK as PMLN are masters of election day management and are STILL LEADING in Punjab albeit with not as strong of a lead as before but are leading nevertheless.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Dawn has just put up an excellent GIS map for the elections. Very useful, accurate on the new delims, and feature-rich.

 

[PakWarrior]

So this is why voter turnout is so important, particularly youth turnout.

I feel there is going to be a good youth turnout.

That's why PTI might get 20 to 30% swing and fifty/fifty seats to go their way.

Is a 90% swing seat and fifty/fifty seat impossible? Absolutely not.

For that the undecided voter and those genuinely fed up with PMLN will have to vote in big numbers.

 

[PakWarrior]

A 90% swing and fifty/fifty seat favour will mean PTI could win between 120 to 145 seats. That would be amazing.

 

[the Great Khan]

I can see a PPP PMLN coalition for another five years of turmoil. I just cant see the powers that be allowing IK to win. They actually prefer a well developed KP that can then agitate for a pukhtoonistan and they can move towards a Syria light situation for Pakistan. Bilawal is a tool and so is the PMLN.

I watched the bbc last night and they were trying to "save" the dawn interview. They got their south asia editor , an Indian, to comment on the elections and he sounded like one of the Indian posters on here..Army blah blah controversial election etc etc..so if IK loses you wont hear a peep about saazish and controversy, but if he wins you will hear all sorts..

 

[Bewal Express]

I can see a PPP PMLN coalition for another five years of turmoil. I just cant see the powers that be allowing IK to win. They actually prefer a well developed KP that can then agitate for a pukhtoonistan and they can move towards a Syria light situation for Pakistan. Bilawal is a tool and so is the PMLN.

I watched the bbc last night and they were trying to "save" the dawn interview. They got their south asia editor , an Indian, to comment on the elections and he sounded like one of the Indian posters on here..Army blah blah controversial election etc etc..so if IK loses you wont hear a peep about saazish and controversy, but if he wins you will hear all sorts..

Yes it was the same in the Times UK a few days back. There was very little on NS and AZ corruption, it was as if they are been given the same info sheet by the same handlers.

 

[Mian]

I encourage Pakistani posters to examine the results of the elections here in Karnataka from a couple of months ago.

The BJP swept the polls and the incumbent Congress government was reduced to shreds, yet aligning with the JDS ensured that they had just enough to stay in power, although they had to sacrifice the Chief Minsiter's seat to the JDS's Kumaraswamy. As for him, he just wanted to be kingmaker prior to the election, and he ended up becoming king. Total farce.

Replace BJP with PTI, the Congress with the PML(N) and the JDS with the PPP and the same thing could span out. You might end up with that turnip Bilawal Bhutto as your PM. Watch out!

True we are having a similar situation here so PTI need to make sure higher turnout and hope that the swing voter help them otherwise PMLN will even accept PPP prime minister just to make sure IK remains out of the race. Bilawal and PMLN are also talking about a charter between like minded parties

 

[PakWarrior]

4 days left only for campaigning.

Definitely doesn't have the same vibe and wave compared to 2013.

There's no political exhaustion amongst the public that's for sure.

All it will take is one mega Imran Khan Jalsa within the next 1 to 3 days to charge everything up.

I get a feeling that we are going to get a big turn out.

 

[Varun]

I can see a PPP PMLN coalition for another five years of turmoil. I just cant see the powers that be allowing IK to win. They actually prefer a well developed KP that can then agitate for a pukhtoonistan and they can move towards a Syria light situation for Pakistan. Bilawal is a tool and so is the PMLN.

I watched the bbc last night and they were trying to "save" the dawn interview. They got their south asia editor , an Indian, to comment on the elections and he sounded like one of the Indian posters on here..Army blah blah controversial election etc etc..so if IK loses you wont hear a peep about saazish and controversy, but if he wins you will hear all sorts..

Who cares what the BBC says before, after or during the elections. Just wake up on the morning and vote for Imran Khan - you'd have done your job. Stephen Sackur or Zainab Bedawi are irrelevant.

 

[PakWarrior]

Who cares what the BBC says before, after or during the elections. Just wake up on the morning and vote for Imran Khan - you'd have done your job. Stephen Sackur or Zainab Bedawi are irrelevant.

Exactly.

 

[Strike!]

Ephedrine case which has been dragging since 2012 will have its verdict announced tomorrow. Hanif Abbasi may be disqualified and jailed tomorrow.

 

[Mian]

Dunya News started their 4 PM to 6 PM transmission from their Election cell to predict results constituency by constituency.

 

[hussain.r97]

Just wondering one thing. If PTI end up on a very borderline amount of seats, what will happen? Because, assuming Imran Khan, Sheikh Rasheed, Tahir Sadiq, Shah Mahmood Qureshi etc win all their seats, we will be dropping at least 7 seats after the election, and those will go down to a bye-election. What if PTI end up losing those seats? That could prove very problematic.

 

[PakWarrior]

Just wondering one thing. If PTI end up on a very borderline amount of seats, what will happen? Because, assuming Imran Khan, Sheikh Rasheed, Tahir Sadiq, Shah Mahmood Qureshi etc win all their seats, we will be dropping at least 7 seats after the election, and those will go down to a bye-election. What if PTI end up losing those seats? That could prove very problematic.

This is an excellent question and I've been thinking the same.

I think multiple seats won be a candidate count towards the final total to form government. And by election losses won't mean that this number or the original number used to form government will be taken away.

Can someone confirm this?

 

[Syed1]

Ephedrine case which has been dragging since 2012 will have its verdict announced tomorrow. Hanif Abbasi may be disqualified and jailed tomorrow.

Ok if I was a Noora that would definitely feel like a sazish



Case dragging on since 2012 and verdict announced three days before elections

 

[hussain.r97]

This is an excellent question and I've been thinking the same.

I think multiple seats won be a candidate count towards the final total to form government. And by election losses won't mean that this number or the original number used to form government will be taken away.

Can someone confirm this?

But if PTI lose their majority after bye elections, won't they need to pull more parties into their coalition?

 

[the Great Khan]

Who cares what the BBC says before, after or during the elections. Just wake up on the morning and vote for Imran Khan - you'd have done your job. Stephen Sackur or Zainab Bedawi are irrelevant.

lol thats what my Mrs said..However we have to undertsand the foreign policy and foreign affairs implications once the election is over. It effects trade and investment and our economy..

 

[PakWarrior]

But if PTI lose their majority after bye elections, won't they need to pull more parties into their coalition?

I don't think that's how it works otherwise there will be a situation that one party gets the required number of votes to form government on the day and then forms government within a week or so after elections. But if they lose seats from the by elections months later then it won't mean that they stop being in government.

I'm not 100% sure on this. Can anyone confirm this?

 

[PakWarrior]

lol thats what my Mrs said..However we have to undertsand the foreign policy and foreign affairs implications once the election is over. It effects trade and investment and our economy..

Let's just get PTI to win first and we can worry about the other stuff later.

 

[hussain.r97]

I don't think that's how it works otherwise there will be a situation that one party gets the required number of votes to form government on the day and then forms government within a week or so after elections. But if they lose seats from the by elections months later then it won't mean that they stop being in government.

I'm not 100% sure on this. Can anyone confirm this?

I think you're right that once the prime minister is voted by the assembly, the cabinet and government are formed. After that, the number of seats is mainly relevant to passing bills in the house.

How would voting for PM work before bye elections though? If Imran Khan has 5 seats, would he be able to vote 5 times or something?

 

[DRsohail]

Ok if I was a Noora that would definitely feel like a sazish



Case dragging on since 2012 and verdict announced three days before elections

Dil khush h jayega//////

 

[PakWarrior]

I think you're right that once the prime minister is voted by the assembly, the cabinet and government are formed. After that, the number of seats is mainly relevant to passing bills in the house.

How would voting for PM work before bye elections though? If Imran Khan has 5 seats, would he be able to vote 5 times or something?

I'll explain.

Once results are in:

1. The party with the largest number of seats gets to form government first. If they don't get the 137 figure by themselves then they negotiate with independents and smaller parties.

This process can take from two days to a week. Even 10 days.

Once this is done great. We have a government.

If they fail to come to an agreement then other parties can also form a coalition as long as they get a total of 137 seats.

Once a government is formed it's time to:

1. Elect a Prime minister.

Two or three names will be decided in the house. Naturally the party with the highest seats and their government will more or less guatantee a vote win for their chosen Prime Minister.

2. Elect a President.

Same process as above.

3. Elect a Speaker of National Assembly.

Same process as above.

4. Elect opposition leader.

Done by opposition parties only. Again voting system and biggest opposition party will probably get their chosen person.

The above process could take as little as 5 to 7 days or even two weeks.

August 25th will be the deadline of the above I believe.

 

[PakWarrior]

No Imran Khan won't be able to vote 5 times just once.

137 to form government. Anything after forming government regarding losing seats via bye election is irrelevant I believe.

Even when voting in house the largest party (Even taking into account through seat loss through a person giving up a seat due to running for multiple constituencies) will more or less get their chosen Prime Minister and President.

 

[hussain.r97]

No Imran Khan won't be able to vote 5 times just once.

137 to form government. Anything after forming government regarding losing seats via bye election is irrelevant I believe.

Even when voting in house the largest party (Even taking into account through seat loss through a person giving up a seat due to running for multiple constituencies) will more or less get their chosen Prime Minister and President.

Won't that work against PTI then?

What I am asking is, once the election is over and Imran Khan, Tahir Sadiq, SMQ, Sheikh Rasheed have their multiple seats, will they sit in the National Assembly to elect the PM, representing multiple seats, and be able to vote for their PM candidate on behalf of all their seats? If they can't, then it will give PTI a 7 seat disadvantage.

 

[PakWarrior]

Won't that work against PTI then?

What I am asking is, once the election is over and Imran Khan, Tahir Sadiq, SMQ, Sheikh Rasheed have their multiple seats, will they sit in the National Assembly to elect the PM, representing multiple seats, and be able to vote for their PM candidate on behalf of all their seats? If they can't, then it will give PTI a 7 seat disadvantage.

No.

The given up seats won't have physical members in the assembly to vote for a Prime Minister etc. By elections will be done after government is formed.

Voting is done before that.

So giving up seats won't put them at a disadvantage at all as there won't be 7 physical members voting as it is. It will mean a smaller number of total members in house voting but again largest party will get their chosen person as they will have the most number of people on voting day for Prime Minister.

After by election results each seat will now have a physical member representing it as a MNA. This will be done afterwards.

 

[hussain.r97]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bellwethers can give an important indication of the direction of an election. 21 seats (20 in Punjab) have voted for the national winners in the past three elections. Watch out for these seats early on election night to see which way the swing voter is headed. <a href="https://t.co/abKEwCnNcV">pic.twitter.com/abKEwCnNcV</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1020161374775926784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

According to my prediction spreadsheet, PTI is winning 7 of these.

 

[hussain.r97]

No.

The given up seats won't have physical members in the assembly to vote for a Prime Minister etc. By elections will be done after government is formed.

Voting is done before that.

So giving up seats won't put them at a disadvantage at all as there won't be 7 physical members voting as it is. It will mean a smaller number of total members in house voting but again largest party will get their chosen person as they will have the most number of people on voting day for Prime Minister.

After by election results each seat will now have a physical member representing it as a MNA. This will be done afterwards.

Ok got it, that's good news then!

 

[Syed1]

I'm getting nervous now...... its now or never time

 

[hussain.r97]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bellwethers can give an important indication of the direction of an election. 21 seats (20 in Punjab) have voted for the national winners in the past three elections. Watch out for these seats early on election night to see which way the swing voter is headed. <a href="https://t.co/abKEwCnNcV">pic.twitter.com/abKEwCnNcV</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1020161374775926784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

According to my prediction spreadsheet, PTI is winning 7 of these.

PML-N will take 10 of these, PPP 2, IND 1. Basically, even the bellwether seats are split! This election is going to be an absolute nailbiter, it is simply too close to call.

 

[Syed1]

Won't that work against PTI then?

What I am asking is, once the election is over and Imran Khan, Tahir Sadiq, SMQ, Sheikh Rasheed have their multiple seats, will they sit in the National Assembly to elect the PM, representing multiple seats, and be able to vote for their PM candidate on behalf of all their seats? If they can't, then it will give PTI a 7 seat disadvantage.

I think what will happen is that first the 272 seats will be made in 342 due to reserved seats being allocated. All the parliamentarians will take oath, then decision will be taken for PM etc.


So PTI being the largest party will already have gotten their extra share of reserved seats which means 7 seats on which by-elections will be held won't matter much.

 

[PakWarrior]

I think what will happen is that first the 272 seats will be made in 342 due to reserved seats being allocated. All the parliamentarians will take oath, then decision will be taken for PM etc.


So PTI being the largest party will already have gotten their extra share of reserved seats which means 7 seats on which by-elections will be held won't matter much.

Correct.

 

[PakWarrior]

I have a feeling that Fawad Chahudhry might lose his Jhelum seat.

The Jalsa the other day was empty and Imran wasn't pleased.

 

[hussain.r97]

I think what will happen is that first the 272 seats will be made in 342 due to reserved seats being allocated. All the parliamentarians will take oath, then decision will be taken for PM etc.


So PTI being the largest party will already have gotten their extra share of reserved seats which means 7 seats on which by-elections will be held won't matter much.

True, didn't think of that! I think PPP, MMA, PML-N, etc may also have a few seats less with Bilawal, Shahbaz, and Fazlur Rehman all contesting on multiple seats.

 

[PakWarrior]

I'm getting nervous now...... its now or never time

Same here Bro.

 

[hussain.r97]

I have a feeling that Fawad Chahudhry might lose his Jhelum seat.

The Jalsa the other day was empty and Imran wasn't pleased.

I think there was even a survey on his seat, and he was trailing by 2-3%? He is running very tight, certainly won't be an easy win for him.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It is nice that I get to start with a young man whose heart is full of love for all Pakistanis, and whose head is full of big ideas and ideals. A beautiful soul, with strong ideological commitment to equality for all Pakistanis, I am proud to endorse... <a href="https://twitter.com/AmmarRashidT?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AmmarRashidT</a> for NA-53. <a href="https://t.co/hpJkit7zml">pic.twitter.com/hpJkit7zml</a></p>— Mosharraf Zaidi (@mosharrafzaidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/mosharrafzaidi/status/1004394623811444737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 6, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[hussain.r97]

I'm getting nervous now...... its now or never time

This is too nerve wrecking! I just want Wednesday night to come now!

 

[Syed1]

Watching surveys, Talal Chaudry's Jaranwala seat is a confirmed seat for Noon league.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The hardest constituency for me to choose a candidate to endorse is <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NA247?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NA247</a>. <br><br>Am v fond of <a href="https://twitter.com/FauziaKasuri?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FauziaKasuri</a> & <a href="https://twitter.com/FarooqSattarMQM?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FarooqSattarMQM</a>. Moreover, few politicians I know are as committed to education as <a href="https://twitter.com/ArifAlvi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ArifAlvi</a>. I Dr Alvi. <br><br>But my heart is w the incomparable <a href="https://twitter.com/MJibranNasir?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MJibranNasir</a>. Endorsed. <a href="https://t.co/FV5qfMzZ6G">pic.twitter.com/FV5qfMzZ6G</a></p>— Mosharraf Zaidi (@mosharrafzaidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/mosharrafzaidi/status/1020224185388478464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[hussain.r97]

Watching surveys, Talal Chaudry's Jaranwala seat is a confirmed seat for Noon league.

Unfortunately, the trio of Abid Sher, Talal Chaudry, and Rana Sanaullah are all going to retain their seats.

 

[PakWarrior]

Things are not looking good for Fawad in Jhelum guys.

They had to call Chaudhry Sarwar to reinvigorate his campaign. Imran might have instructed him to do so.

 

[PakWarrior]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The hardest constituency for me to choose a candidate to endorse is <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NA247?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NA247</a>. <br><br>Am v fond of <a href="https://twitter.com/FauziaKasuri?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FauziaKasuri</a> & <a href="https://twitter.com/FarooqSattarMQM?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FarooqSattarMQM</a>. Moreover, few politicians I know are as committed to education as <a href="https://twitter.com/ArifAlvi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ArifAlvi</a>. I Dr Alvi. <br><br>But my heart is w the incomparable <a href="https://twitter.com/MJibranNasir?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MJibranNasir</a>. Endorsed. <a href="https://t.co/FV5qfMzZ6G">pic.twitter.com/FV5qfMzZ6G</a></p>— Mosharraf Zaidi (@mosharrafzaidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/mosharrafzaidi/status/1020224185388478464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I was waiting for you to turn up.

Don't take that the wrong way Bro. I meant that tongue in cheek.

 

[DRsohail]

Things are not looking good for Fawad in Jhelum guys.

They had to call Chaudhry Sarwar to reinvigorate his campaign. Imran might have instructed him to do so.

After flop show he not gonna win it.Will be such a shame.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Who cares what the BBC says before, after or during the elections. Just wake up on the morning and vote for Imran Khan - you'd have done your job. Stephen Sackur or Zainab Bedawi are irrelevant.

Stephen Sackur actually did a very good job of exposing the biasness of Dawn Group.

Ephedrine case which has been dragging since 2012 will have its verdict announced tomorrow. Hanif Abbasi may be disqualified and jailed tomorrow.

But isn't the last of printing ballots today (June 20th)? What will happen if Mr. Ephedrine gets disqualified? Will they have to print all the ballots for NA-60 again? Quite counter-intuitive to decide a case so close to the elections.

I can see a PPP PMLN coalition for another five years of turmoil. I just cant see the powers that be allowing IK to win. They actually prefer a well developed KP that can then agitate for a pukhtoonistan and they can move towards a Syria light situation for Pakistan. Bilawal is a tool and so is the PMLN.

I watched the bbc last night and they were trying to "save" the dawn interview. They got their south asia editor , an Indian, to comment on the elections and he sounded like one of the Indian posters on here..Army blah blah controversial election etc etc..so if IK loses you wont hear a peep about saazish and controversy, but if he wins you will hear all sorts..

Well, the Indian lobby is active in support of Nawaz Sharif. Their media is currently even more pro-Nawaz than Dawn and Geo combined. Now with everything else failing, one ace up their sleeve is to disrupt the electoral process by terrorist attacks done through proxies. This will drag the turnout figure down and they will spin it as 'rejection of the engineered elections by the people'.

I think you're right that once the prime minister is voted by the assembly, the cabinet and government are formed. After that, the number of seats is mainly relevant to passing bills in the house.

How would voting for PM work before bye elections though? If Imran Khan has 5 seats, would he be able to vote 5 times or something?

According to Article 223(II) of the constitution:
Nothing in clause (1) shall prevent a person from being a candidate for two or more seats at the same time, whether in the same assembly or in different assemblies, but if he is elected to more than one seat he shall, within a period of thirty days after the declaration of the result for the last such seat, resign all but one of his seats, and if he does not so resign, all the seats to which he has been elected shall become vacant at the expiration of the said period of thirty days except the seat to which he has been elected last or, if he has been elected to more than one seat on the same day, the seat for election to which his nomination was filed last.

Therefore if Imran Khan has 5 seats, he will have to resign from all but one of them to be eligible to sit in the assembly. The seats he resigns from will be considered empty until a by-election is conducted on them.

 

[PakWarrior]

After flop show he not gonna win it.Will be such a shame.

Yes Dr Sahib it's very disappointing news. I'm very suprised as he got lots of votes last time.

Fawad is a very good young PTI worker and him not becoming a MNA will be a big loss.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Watching surveys, Talal Chaudry's Jaranwala seat is a confirmed seat for Noon league.

A single TV survey (which isn't scientific) doesn't accurately predict the electoral outcome. Of the trio of Talal, Rana Sana, and Abid Sher, Talal is the weakest in his constituency. I am fairly certain he will lose his seat. Rana Sana will have a tough fight with Nisar Jutt, while Abid Sher is a virtually confirmed NA member.

Another two seats to look for in Faisalabad are NA-109 (Faizullah Kamoka) and NA-110 (Raja Riaz). Both are currently leaning towards PTI with NA-109 being stronger.

 

[Waseem]

Dunya News started their 4 PM to 6 PM transmission from their Election cell to predict results constituency by constituency.

That was nice to watch and most predictions were in line with what we have been predicting on this thread and predictions made by Hussain.

On a different note, tv is flooded with PPP ads right now. 90% ads i have seen are PPP ads. To be honest, PTI could have done much better with ads and i don't like Faisal Javed Khan's voice for these ads. Still looks like he is speaking at a jalsa (his voice is much more suitable at jalsas).

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lives of our workers and voters at large is being put at risk. See the thread about 3 incidents today 20th July:<br><br>1. Ghausia Masjid at Hijrat colony declared all our voters "Qadiyani Agents" and condemned all workers to hell and labelled me a blasphemer</p>— M. Jibran Nasir (@MJibranNasir) <a href="https://twitter.com/MJibranNasir/status/1020292076011958272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[DrSchultz]

I think you're right that once the prime minister is voted by the assembly, the cabinet and government are formed. After that, the number of seats is mainly relevant to passing bills in the house.

How would voting for PM work before bye elections though? If Imran Khan has 5 seats, would he be able to vote 5 times or something?

IK can only retain 1 seat out of those 5, hence only one vote.

Moreover, removing the PM would require a vote of no confidence passed by absolute majority i.e. 50% of the total membership.

 

[Syed1]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Lives of our workers and voters at large is being put at risk. See the thread about 3 incidents today 20th July:<br><br>1. Ghausia Masjid at Hijrat colony declared all our voters "Qadiyani Agents" and condemned all workers to hell and labelled me a blasphemer</p>— M. Jibran Nasir (@MJibranNasir) <a href="https://twitter.com/MJibranNasir/status/1020292076011958272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

More rona dhona



Heck even BAP or ANP didn't cry this much and they had suicide attacks on them. What a pathetic candidate this guy is, hiding his lack of popularity with cheap publicity stunts.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

More rona dhona

By that scale, the whole dharna thing was a monumental rona dhona.

 

[Syed1]

By that scale, the whole dharna thing was a monumental rona dhona.

These attention seeking stunts are employed when a candidate has absolutely no chance of winning. I'd be very surprised if JN even manages to get into the top 5 in his constituency.

 

[Waseem]

No.

The given up seats won't have physical members in the assembly to vote for a Prime Minister etc. By elections will be done after government is formed.

Voting is done before that.

So giving up seats won't put them at a disadvantage at all as there won't be 7 physical members voting as it is. It will mean a smaller number of total members in house voting but again largest party will get their chosen person as they will have the most number of people on voting day for Prime Minister.

After by election results each seat will now have a physical member representing it as a MNA. This will be done afterwards.

That's great to know bro, never thought about it. I always thought PTI will lose a few seats after members winning multiple seats but what you said makes sense.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

These attention seeking stunts are employed when a candidate has absolutely no chance of winning. I'd be very surprised if JN even manages to get into the top 5 in his constituency.

Elections are all about drawing attention to the outstanding social issues. So I don’t get your point. Do you not like that he is talking about an extremist mindset that is causing a rot in our society?

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Activist <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AliTareen?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AliTareen</a> on why he is voting <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LoudSpeaker?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#LoudSpeaker</a> in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NA247?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NA247</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PS111?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PS111</a>. Aap Ki Awaz, Aap Mein Se <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Aik?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Aik</a> <a href="https://t.co/xyFB3lgJ1p">pic.twitter.com/xyFB3lgJ1p</a></p>— M. Jibran Nasir (@MJibranNasir) <a href="https://twitter.com/MJibranNasir/status/1020280620197601280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Loralai]

Jibran and Ammar are the way forward for Pakistan.

We should be alarmed that those supporting JN are being targetted and put at risk. Crazy to think about how extremists like Ramzan Mengal are given police protection whereas a progressive like Jibran is being mistreated.

 

[Bewal Express]

Jibran and Ammar are the way forward for Pakistan.

We should be alarmed that those supporting JN are being targetted and put at risk. Crazy to think about how extremists like Ramzan Mengal are given police protection whereas a progressive like Jibran is being mistreated.

These guys might be the salt of the earth but after your praise for Billo yesterday you have as about credibility as our saplings friend.

 

[hussain.r97]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">PTI makes biggest gains in South Punjab, smallest in Karachi/Hyderabad. <a href="https://t.co/lDOpmspdqe">pic.twitter.com/lDOpmspdqe</a></p>— Roshan Pakistan Opinion Polling (@RoshanOpinion) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoshanOpinion/status/1020316927510687744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

I have a simple question to all the voters on this forum; if the person you vote doesn’t perform, will you vote someone else in the subsequent elections?

 

[Waseem]

Unfortunately, the trio of Abid Sher, Talal Chaudry, and Rana Sanaullah are all going to retain their seats.

Abid Sher Ali will definitely win.

Talal Chauhdry will definitely face much bigger challenge than last time but i believe is only slightly ahead 55-45 in his favour.

Rana Sanaullah actually may lose, Nisar Jutt has lot of influence plus PTI votebank has increased a lot in Faisalabad so out of three, PTI has best chance here.

 

[Syed1]

I know PTI has a very holistic manifesto which would be hard to accomplish completely what in your opinion would be enough achievements for you to vote again for PTI in 2023. In my opinion:


1. Massive improvement in FBR and NAB to tackle tax fraud and corruption, giving government breathing space for development
2. Sehat insaaf card for 100% of poor to middle income people in the country
3. Minimum standard of facilities established for every existing school (massive task)
4. Significant reduction in out-of-school children
5. Functioning local government system implemented across country
6. No new wars and reduction in border flair ups with India
7. Exports in the 50 billion range after 5 years and reduction in trade gap



These seem ambitious yet achievable goals in my opinion, upon which PTI government could be declared as successful.

 

[Strike!]

Samaa news predicts 114 seats for PTI. 48 for PMLN.

 

[Eagle_Eye]

These attention seeking stunts are employed when a candidate has absolutely no chance of winning. I'd be very surprised if JN even manages to get into the top 5 in his constituency.

You are missing the point of his drama baszi..... he's actually vying for the position left vacant by the death of Asma Jahangir!!

 

[Mian]

That was nice to watch and most predictions were in line with what we have been predicting on this thread and predictions made by Hussain.

On a different note, tv is flooded with PPP ads right now. 90% ads i have seen are PPP ads. To be honest, PTI could have done much better with ads and i don't like Faisal Javed Khan's voice for these ads. Still looks like he is speaking at a jalsa (his voice is much more suitable at jalsas).

No aggressive ads at all PTI is number 3rd if we talk abut TVCs and yea Faisal ads are a big flop.

 

[last_knight]

Samaa news predicts 114 seats for PTI. 48 for PMLN.

This is "THE SUNDAY". BLOCKBUSTER SUNDAY.

Monstrous of a Sunday and 114 will become 124. A relatively sedate weekend and predictions by Monday will come down to 100 seats for PTI. PTI Candidates for 50/50 constituencies, have to outsmart and block all traditional (unethical but effective) moves by candidates of PMLn and other opppsitions.

If on Monday, PMLn revert to dirty stuff I would predict 125 seats for PTI.

 

[PakWarrior]

Samaa news predicts 114 seats for PTI. 48 for PMLN.

Bro that is from Samaa's Khara Sach Mubashar Luqman's team.

Mubashar Luqman is known to exagerate things a bit here and there so I wouldn't read too much into this prediction. I hope I'm wrong though.

 

[Mian]

First media told us for years Imran can't become PM and now the whole media is saying "Imran will be a weak PM with no clear majority and will face lot of issues".

Media and their narratives

 

[PakWarrior]

I know PTI has a very holistic manifesto which would be hard to accomplish completely what in your opinion would be enough achievements for you to vote again for PTI in 2023. In my opinion:


1. Massive improvement in FBR and NAB to tackle tax fraud and corruption, giving government breathing space for development
2. Sehat insaaf card for 100% of poor to middle income people in the country
3. Minimum standard of facilities established for every existing school (massive task)
4. Significant reduction in out-of-school children
5. Functioning local government system implemented across country
6. No new wars and reduction in border flair ups with India
7. Exports in the 50 billion range after 5 years and reduction in trade gap



These seem ambitious yet achievable goals in my opinion, upon which PTI government could be declared as successful.

Awesome post Bro.

My hopes for PTI's first term inshallah:

1. Strengthen NAB to reduce corruption. Strengthen all institutions to have a system in place to reduce corruption. They can achieve this. Also to not let the accountability process that has begun to slow down.

2. Depoliticise the Police force like they did in KP.

3. Strengthen FBR so that tax collection increases.

4. Overall tax collection will have to increase. So excpect tax increases in a lot of areas. This is important. Otherwise we will be borrowing and getting loans for years and years.

5. Water issue has to be addressed as PRIORITY NUMBER 1. Start in Dam construction process and look at other ways to prevent a water drought from occurring.

6. Health card as you mentioned.

7. Improve country's overall sewerage issues and start cleaning up the country. Litter to be reduced.

8. Functional local government system and reduce out of school children as you mentioned.

9. Make sure CPEC is seen to its very end.

10. Continue with Climate change process and implement action to prevent heat issues etc. Tree project in KP is a massive success.

11. Clean water filtration system across Pakistan. This is not that difficult to implement.

12. Speedy justice system where people aren't waiting years and years for their cases to be heard.

13. Improve the standards of hospitals across the whole country.

14. Improve road and transport safety so that accidents occurring due to tyres bursting and wreckless driving are reduced.

15. Exports and reduction in trade gap as you mentioned.

The above, particularly getting the ball rolling of the above , in 5 years is definitely possible.

 

[PakWarrior]

First media told us for years Imran can't become PM and now the whole media is saying "Imran will be a weak PM with no clear majority and will face lot of issues".

Media and their narratives

Ignore media Bro. PMLN has made them very wealthy.

They can't stop PTI and Allah is with us.

 

[Mian]

Ignore media Bro. PMLN has made them very wealthy.

They can't stop PTI and Allah is with us.

I know that bro i am talking about aam aadmi media can easily change his mind in this week.

 

[Mian]

What a story!
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"I said in 1998, today it is just my vote for PTI, tomorrow there'll be millions"<br>They say faith can move mountains. Fast forward 2018, this heartwarming story tells, faith can really do that.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AbSirfImranKhan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AbSirfImranKhan</a> <a href="https://t.co/UGdoSOStMz">pic.twitter.com/UGdoSOStMz</a></p>— PTI (@PTIofficial) <a href="https://twitter.com/PTIofficial/status/1020339517608349697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Loralai]

[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] and [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] neither of your lists include tackling religious extremism, which is the most serious threat we are facing.
[MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] is in a very fortunate position as he could actually vote for the Jibran Nasir! Jibran is really the best candidate we have in NA 247.

Also, we shouldn't dismiss talk of tackling extremism as rona dhona. It is not easy to raise these issues. We have more seasoned political parties getting involved with extremists. So you should commend Jibran for taking a stand.

 

[PakWarrior]

[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] and [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] neither of your lists include tackling religious extremism, which is the most serious threat we are facing.
[MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] is in a very fortunate position as he could actually vote for the Jibran Nasir! Jibran is really the best candidate we have in NA 247.

Also, we shouldn't dismiss talk of tackling extremism as rona dhona. It is not easy to raise these issues. We have more seasoned political parties getting involved with extremists. So you should commend Jibran for taking a stand.

I am getting utterly fed up of your Jibran Nasir thing now. Do you talk about anything else?

 

[Syed1]

[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] and [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] neither of your lists include tackling religious extremism, which is the most serious threat we are facing.
[MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] is in a very fortunate position as he could actually vote for the Jibran Nasir! Jibran is really the best candidate we have in NA 247.

Also, we shouldn't dismiss talk of tackling extremism as rona dhona. It is not easy to raise these issues. We have more seasoned political parties getting involved with extremists. So you should commend Jibran for taking a stand.

You can only fight extremism and religious intolerance through education. There is no magic wand that all of a sudden you will have equal rights for all minorities and Pakistanis becoming accepting of other religions.


Invest in education today and maybe in 20 years you will have a more tolerant society.

 

[Loralai]

I am getting utterly fed up of your Jibran Nasir thing now. Do you talk about anything else?

I did also mention the list you made about PTI's first term.

Why did you not include anything to do with tackling extremism in it?

Is it because you do not consider this an important enough issue, or because you believe PTI does not have the will or resources to tackle extremism?

 

[Sirris]

Guess politics is a dirty game after all.

Just found out that PTI is being represented by the likes of Pervez Elahi and Wajaht Hussain the notorious Chaudary brethrens and mobsters.

Extremely disappointed and disgusted.

 

[Syed1]

I did also mention the list you made about PTI's first term.

Why did you not include anything to do with tackling extremism in it?

Is it because you do not consider this an important enough issue, or because you believe PTI does not have the will or resources to tackle extremism?

Your idea of fighting extremism is to line them up in front a firing squad?

 

[Syed1]

Guess politics is a dirty game after all.

Just found out that PTI is being represented by the likes of Pervez Elahi and Wajaht Hussain the notorious Chaudary brethrens and mobsters.

Extremely disappointed and disgusted.

Not represented. These people are fighting from their own party's platform and PTI has zero chance in their constituencies hence PTI decided to not contest from there.