Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[Pakpak]

Thank you to the mods for accepting my request to make this thread sticky.

A few points and the way I see the trial going.

I think that the trial will finish the first week of July and we might get a verdict ten days before the elections. However I feel that things may pick up pace soon and the Avenfield verdict might be given first whilst the other two references carry on for a few weeks. An interesting development today is that we might get closing arguments for Avenfield in the next few days so this will mean the judge can give a verdict on that next week if he wants to.

Nawaz wants the verdict of all three references at the same time. It will also prolong the trial. This request was dismissed today but he will appeal.

Now what will happen if these three crooks are found guilty? They will be handcuffed and sent to Adiala jail, albeit for a few minutes or hours whilst they file their appeals to the supreme court. They will have their appeals dismissed and then this will happen:

Nawaz will request for offical Presidential pardon which he should get in theory as the President is his man BUT there is going to be no deal or exile plan for Nawaz. That is NOT going to happen as the powers that be have decided enough is enough. You will see a MASS EXODUS from noon league by this time and docile qaum or not docile qaum...it is going to have a massive affect and the court can say that the looted wealth has to be brought back, if not Nawaz will begin losing Raiwind Palace, Sugar mills one by one. Rememebr as soon as he is found guilty not only will it mean jail time but also recovery of looted wealth.

Why is Nawaz still in Pakistan and why haven't they fled to the UK? I'll tell you why. It's because had Nawaz done that it would have meant noon league as a party would have been finished by now and Imran might as well have been practising his first speech as prime minister. It would have meant the end of Nawaz as a politician and everything he has built in terms of assets in Pakistan. Also he is confident of presidential pardon. If he fled then everything of his would have been frozen in Pakistan. Game over.

Now remember alot of noon league members have left pmln as they know what's in store.

You will see Nawaz and his immediate clan be put out of action and their chapter will be closed. Shabaz will longer on for a year and he will be done by the courts.

Also remember. Uzair Baloch has a treasure trove of material against Zardari and the ppp clan. Just wait till noon league is cleaned up and then it's operation ppp clean up.

Hope the above gives some clarity to anyone wanting abit of information on a chain of events that are likely to occur.

Well summarised by [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] above.

The writing is on the wall for Nawaz and Maryam and it reads jail term. I also believe that PMLN would win 80-90 seats and with coalition form the next Government and Shahbaz will be the next PM. However, Shahbaz is next in line for disqualification on corruption. The cases on corruption of construction companies is very strong and I expect Shahbaz to be disqualified within 18 months of taking oaths as a PM.

Zardari is next in line and understanding how cunning Zardari is I doubt he would want to step back into Parliament (however I have heard he will contest an election from NA seat though). Once in the near future both Shabaz and Zardari are disqualified and criminal charges brought on them with Nawaz and Maryam already serving sentences then I can see a good future for Pakistan.

The icing on the cake would be the courts order and arrange to bring back Ishaq Dar, Hussain and Hasan Nawaz to serve their sentences in Pakistan. The message should be loud and clear this time on corruption.

Some of you are too optimistic. Nawaz is done however following things will never happen, and you can quote me on it:

-Jail. There is no way Nawaz or any of his family are going to jail. He knows he will be convicted 100% but he knows he will never spend a day in jail, he will simply be exiled
-His looted wealth will never come to Pakistan, the reason he is making all these speeches in court instead of answering questions is so he will paint this case as political so he can escape the British confiscating his wealth in UK, as they will not deem his conviction anything worth it if they think its a political case. The entire reason he is making this army vs him. Even look at the BBC articles, they believe his story and somehow deem it a conspiracy. This was very well covered by Amir Mateen. If the British can give citizenship to a mass murderer and a criminal and knowing he is such in Altaf Hussain then Sharif is nothing
-Hussain and Hassan are British nationals and will never extradited to Pakistan
-Once Nawaz is done his brother will run away as well, there is no future for him without Nawaz
-Zardari is too slippery and not a fool like the Sharifs. He has his tracks well covered, the Sharifs couldn't pin anything on him when he was being tortured in jail in 1997 so noone will now. The good thing is he will never come to power again.

 

[last_knight]

Some of you are too optimistic. Nawaz is done however following things will never happen, and you can quote me on it:

-Jail. There is no way Nawaz or any of his family are going to jail. He knows he will be convicted 100% but he knows he will never spend a day in jail, he will simply be exiled
-His looted wealth will never come to Pakistan, the reason he is making all these speeches in court instead of answering questions is so he will paint this case as political so he can escape the British confiscating his wealth in UK, as they will not deem his conviction anything worth it if they think its a political case. The entire reason he is making this army vs him. Even look at the BBC articles, they believe his story and somehow deem it a conspiracy. This was very well covered by Amir Mateen. If the British can give citizenship to a mass murderer and a criminal and knowing he is such in Altaf Hussain then Sharif is nothing
-Hussain and Hassan are British nationals and will never extradited to Pakistan
-Once Nawaz is done his brother will run away as well, there is no future for him without Nawaz
-Zardari is too slippery and not a fool like the Sharifs. He has his tracks well covered, the Sharifs couldn't pin anything on him when he was being tortured in jail in 1997 so noone will now. The good thing is he will never come to power again.

Still Sharifs have billions of billions in assets within Pakistan. That's there Achilles heel. More like the greedy monkey who doesn't want to let go off some nuts and will get his hands trapped in jar.

Not to forget that Sharifs' offshore companies have one client, Pakistan, that probably constitute 80-90% of their business through orders from Govt of Pakistan and Punjab.

 

[PakWarrior]

Two big criminal brothers from Pakpattan have joined pti today. One will be a mna candidate Na -145 the other will be provincial pp-193. Mohammad Shah Khagga and Ahmad Shah Khagga.

They are land grabbers and well known criminals.

I think Imran has lost his marbles over the last few days.

 

[Pakpak]

Still Sharifs have billions of billions in assets within Pakistan. That's there Achilles heel. More like the greedy monkey who doesn't want to let go off some nuts and will get his hands trapped in jar.

Not to forget that Sharifs' offshore companies have one client, Pakistan, that probably constitute 80-90% of their business through orders from Govt of Pakistan and Punjab.

Not really. From what is on social media and from the rumors the London apartments are the tip of the iceberg. They will have dozens of more properties worth billions. They have been looting Pakistan for decades.

Even in an extreme case I can't see them even taking Raiwand from him. He will simply be sent outside where he will go into obscurity like Altaf Hussain. PPP, unfortunately for our nation, has lived because it had a nazriya. PMLN is nothing.

 

[Mian]

SMQ trying his best to give all the Multan tickets to weak candidates from his family and gift Multan to opponents

 

[Mian]

 

[Mian]

Naazreen now even opponent are admitting ke wave is with PTI

 

[Mian]

PTI leading in NA90 Saroghda. Remember this is the old NA66 where PMLN got the 132k votes and PTI got only 36 votes in 2013.

 

[Syed1]

PTI leading in NA90 Saroghda. Remember this is the old NA66 where PMLN got the 132k votes and PTI got only 36 votes in 2013.

Ayi ayi PTI.... hawaa chal pari hai



All that is needed are finishing touches.

 

[Angrez Pakistani]

Ayi ayi PTI.... hawaa chal pari hai



All that is needed are finishing touches.

I’d rather vote for Jibran Nasir than this morally bankrupt version of PTI.

 

[last_knight]

Central Punjab PTI ticket holders to be announced later today. Gjw, Gujrat, Mandi Bahauddin, Lahore, Narowal, Sheikhupura. That has been a strong zone for PMLn throughout but not anymore.

 

[Waseem]

Gujranwala ticket holders (most probably)

NA79 - Ahmed Chatha (Very Strong candidate)
NA80 - Mian Tariq mahmood (Very Strong candidate)
NA81 - Khawaja Saleh (Don't even know him)
NA82 - Ali Ashraf Mughal (Weak candidate)
NA83 - Rana Umar Nazir (Very Strong candidate)
NA84 - Ch Bilal Ijaz (Very Strong candidate)

I think PTI can win 3/6 seats in Gujranwala.

 

[Syed1]

I’d rather vote for Jibran Nasir than this morally bankrupt version of PTI.

Ok go ahead

 

[hussain.r97]

[MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION]

Was looking into the candidates for interior Sindh, and I think there are three NA seats PTI should have their eyes on.

NA-221 Tharparkar - Shah Mehmood Qureshi
NA-234 Dadu - Liaquat Ali Jatoi
NA-234 Dadu - Karim Ali Jatoi

What do you think of PTI's chances on these three seats? I think they should win NA-221 as Shah Mehmood Qureshi only lost very marginally last time. What about the two Dadu seats? Both Jatois were on a PML-N ticket last time, and both bagged around 60k votes each. Karim Jatoi fell short by 20k, and Liaquat Jatoi by 40k.

Are there any other seats in interior Sindh we should have an eye on?

 

[Waseem]

[MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION]

Was looking into the candidates for interior Sindh, and I think there are three NA seats PTI should have their eyes on.

NA-221 Tharparkar - Shah Mehmood Qureshi
NA-234 Dadu - Liaquat Ali Jatoi
NA-234 Dadu - Karim Ali Jatoi

What do you think of PTI's chances on these three seats? I think they should win NA-221 as Shah Mehmood Qureshi only lost very marginally last time. What about the two Dadu seats? Both Jatois were on a PML-N ticket last time, and both bagged around 60k votes each. Karim Jatoi fell short by 20k, and Liaquat Jatoi by 40k.

Are there any other seats in interior Sindh we should have an eye on?

I think very strong chances on all these seats considering increased popularity of PTI and possible seat adjustment with GDA.

SMQ for some reason hasn't spent as much time in Sindh this time so not sure if he still has loyal votebank but can't see personal votebank changing dramatically. SMQ also got lot of votes in MirpurKhas. Mir Ghalib Domki from Jacobabad also joined recently and got 24000 votes as Independent so he can possibly win one with help of GDA.
I think some other influential families have joined recently as well but can't think of anyone with serious chances against PPP.

 

[Strike!]

PTI is gonna announce ticket allocation today.

 

[Mian]

Tabdeeli aa nae rahi tabdeeli aa gae he. Interesting results from Faisalabad.

 

[Strike!]

Nisar Jutt is an electable? If so his personal votebank can help beat PMLN.

 

[Strike!]

Supreme Court restores old nomination system. You have to give affidavit of your assets before the election commission as well as the supreme court.

 

[Mian]

Supreme Court restores old nomination system. You have to give affidavit of your assets before the election commission as well as the supreme court.

Namaazen maaf kerwaane gae thai roze eb gaale per gae ) Now they have to give affidavit

 

[Strike!]

Namaazen maaf kerwaane gae thai roze eb gaale per gae ) Now they have to give affidavit

Giving an affidavit means they can be charged with perjury if they are found lying later on..Spare a thought for Bilawal and Zardari right now.. )

 

[Mian]

Giving an affidavit means they can be charged with perjury if they are found lying later on..Spare a thought for Bilawal and Zardari right now.. )

haha they are doomed and 50 to 70% other prominent politicians as well

 

[Strike!]

NAB orders inquiry against Shahid Khakan Abbasi.

 

[Syed1]

NAB orders inquiry against Shahid Khakan Abbasi.

They will have hearings for 1+ year and nothing will come of it.

 

[Syed1]

I want Immy to run against her and dish out an epic phainti to "quam ki beti"... make her cry.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1412394/m...papers-for-lahores-na-125-seat-for-2018-polls

PML-N's Maryam Nawaz on Wednesday obtained nomination papers to contest the upcoming elections, the first of her political career, from her party’s traditionally dominant National Assembly constituency in Lahore — NA-125, DawnNewsTV reported.

The NA-125 constituency was NA-120 prior to delimitation ─ the same constituency where her father, Nawaz Sharif, contested and won in the 2013 election. After Nawaz was disqualified by the Supreme Court last year, his wife Kulsoom Nawaz won the seat in the by-poll last year.

She has also obtained nomination papers for the NA-127 constituency in Lahore.

Kulsoom, who has been battling cancer, left for London before the by-poll took place and had not taken oath as a lawmaker. Maryam was a prominent figure in both her parents' campaigns and has traditionally received a great deal of support in the constituency.

Maryam, who is currently embroiled in corruption cases in the accountability court, obtained the nomination papers from the court of returning officer (RO) Asif Bashir today, who confirmed the development to DawnNewsTV.

Maryam has yet to announce that she is running for the election.

 

[last_knight]

Tabdeeli aa nae rahi tabdeeli aa gae he. Interesting results from Faisalabad.

Faisalabad is 50/50 between PMLn and PTI. Will end up 65-35 in PTI favour. People are removing PMLn banners from their streets.

 

[Syed1]

Faisalabad is 50/50 between PMLn and PTI. Will end up 65-35 in PTI favour. People are removing PMLn banners from their streets.

I cannot believe that. Faisalabad is a bigger garh of Noon league than Lahore. PTI can beat them in Lahore but not in Faisalabad.

 

[Waseem]

haha they are doomed and 50 to 70% other prominent politicians as well

To be honest, if this rule is applied without any bias i wouldn't mind if half of PTI also becomes ineligible to contest elections, this is probably the only way to change the system and bring forward educated people.

 

[Waseem]

I cannot believe that. Faisalabad is a bigger garh of Noon league than Lahore. PTI can beat them in Lahore but not in Faisalabad.

There is a very good reason for that, Faisalabad industry (textile in particular) suffered massively during PPP government and people were absolutely furious with them and they had no option but to vote for PMLN as they didn't want PPP again at any cost and PTI was not tested so they couldn't take risk.

I remember as a kid when we used to go in some areas in Faisalabad, it was such a stronghold of PPP that anyone claiming to be PMLN supporter would get humiliated, I am talking about late 80s/early 90s. Gujranwala, Sialkot, Sheikhupura are traditionally more PMLN strongholds than Faisalabad.
I expect PTI to win at least 50% of Faisalabad seats as they have much better candidates this time.

 

[last_knight]

There is a very good reason for that, Faisalabad industry (textile in particular) suffered massively during PPP government and people were absolutely furious with them and they had no option but to vote for PMLN as they didn't want PPP again at any cost and PTI was not tested so they couldn't take risk.

I remember as a kid when we used to go in some areas in Faisalabad, it was such a stronghold of PPP that anyone claiming to be PMLN supporter would get humiliated, I am talking about late 80s/early 90s. Gujranwala, Sialkot, Sheikhupura are traditionally more PMLN strongholds than Faisalabad.
I expect PTI to win at least 50% of Faisalabad seats as they have much better candidates this time.

I have been told by locals from faisalabad. They are removing PMLn banners from residential blocks/colonies. Didn't I mention in an earlier post that Rana Sanaullah, himself an ex-PPP member, will probably contest election from a different constituency And not his parent constituency from where he fear losing it.

 

[Syed1]

There is a very good reason for that, Faisalabad industry (textile in particular) suffered massively during PPP government and people were absolutely furious with them and they had no option but to vote for PMLN as they didn't want PPP again at any cost and PTI was not tested so they couldn't take risk.

I remember as a kid when we used to go in some areas in Faisalabad, it was such a stronghold of PPP that anyone claiming to be PMLN supporter would get humiliated, I am talking about late 80s/early 90s. Gujranwala, Sialkot, Sheikhupura are traditionally more PMLN strongholds than Faisalabad.
I expect PTI to win at least 50% of Faisalabad seats as they have much better candidates this time.

That'll be a great achievement and if PTI pulls it off I'd be very optimistic of them forming central government.



Primary goal should be IK as PM and Asad Umar as finance minister come hell or high water.

 

[Syed1]

One thing to note in all Habib Akram surveys... whenever a respondent says PTI they give reason IK is clean man, he has given us shaoor of corruption, he has fought against Nawaz Sharif, we have tried everyone else etc etc.


While the respondents saying Nawaz Sharif usually give reason that they have always voted for them and that they have done "work", some go even a step further and say kuch khata hai tou lagata bhi hai

 

[the Great Khan]

One thing to note in all Habib Akram surveys... whenever a respondent says PTI they give reason IK is clean man, he has given us shaoor of corruption, he has fought against Nawaz Sharif, we have tried everyone else etc etc.


While the respondents saying Nawaz Sharif usually give reason that they have always voted for them and that they have done "work", some go even a step further and say kuch khata hai tou lagata bhi hai

Yes Ive seen that in quite a few shows. But also notice the socio economic position of many who say they will vote N league. Many are poorer and dare I say it less literate. And lets not underestimate the fact that most of our quam is such. I love the optimism here. But me being a cynical older person, (well middle aged lol) , ive seen this before and we lost. The PMLN are upto something. We have just had the Reham book, and I suspect more dirty tricks will be revealed soon. Campaigning hasnt started properly yet because of Ramadhan so I'm still convinced their Gullu Butts will be upto no good in pre poll shenanigans..

 

[PakWarrior]

Yes Ive seen that in quite a few shows. But also notice the socio economic position of many who say they will vote N league. Many are poorer and dare I say it less literate. And lets not underestimate the fact that most of our quam is such. I love the optimism here. But me being a cynical older person, (well middle aged lol) , ive seen this before and we lost. The PMLN are upto something. We have just had the Reham book, and I suspect more dirty tricks will be revealed soon. Campaigning hasnt started properly yet because of Ramadhan so I'm still convinced their Gullu Butts will be upto no good in pre poll shenanigans..

That's the thing.

There are 3 types of voters in Pakistan.

1. The educated voter
2. The less educated but still morally and socially conscious voter. They have a decent level of schooling and keep up to date with most developments.
3. The illiterate and jaahil voter

It's a battle between voter 1 and 2 v voter 3.

But it's voter 3 that's present in Pakistan in higher numbers than voter 1 and voter 2 combined. Although this gap is reducing fast thanks to a rapidly growing young population.

It's voter number 3 and more specifically to what extent voter number 3 turns up on July 25th in those Punjabi constituencies that will decide whether or not Imran is sworn in as Prime minister on July 26th.

 

[Mian]

So in the end Ch Nisar and PMLN are back on bed together and Ch Nisar is being given 2 NA and 2 PP tickets.

 

[Mian]

That's the thing.

There are 3 types of voters in Pakistan.

1. The educated voter
2. The less educated but still morally and socially conscious voter. They have a decent level of schooling and keep up to date with most developments.
3. The illiterate and jaahil voter

It's a battle between voter 1 and 2 v voter 3.

But it's voter 3 that's present in Pakistan in higher numbers than voter 1 and voter 2 combined. Although this gap is reducing fast thanks to a rapidly growing young population.

It's voter number 3 and more specifically to what extent voter number 3 turns up on July 25th in those Punjabi constituencies that will decide whether or not Imran is sworn in as Prime minister on July 26th.

Most of the youth and middle class falls under 1 and 2 type and i hope they will show up on polling day instead of just lecturing on social media because higher turn out means more chances of PTI victory

 

[waqar goraya]

Gujranwala ticket holders (most probably)

NA79 - Ahmed Chatha (Very Strong candidate)
NA80 - Mian Tariq mahmood (Very Strong candidate)
NA81 - Khawaja Saleh (Don't even know him)
NA82 - Ali Ashraf Mughal (Weak candidate)
NA83 - Rana Umar Nazir (Very Strong candidate)
NA84 - Ch Bilal Ijaz (Very Strong candidate)

I think PTI can win 3/6 seats in Gujranwala.

Good assessment. Ali Ashraf Mughal is no match for Usman Ibrahim. Ali is a scion of Super Asia family. A businessman with absolutely no grass root links or support. I doubt he can even campaign in the heat of July.Your news regarding Usman Ibrahim proved fake.

Khawaja Saleh only has money but no real political influence. He has fought against Khurram Dastgir on PPP ticket in the past. He won't have any chance against Khurram, but maybe his money can help PTI in the city.

Bilal Ijaz is a relative of Umar Nazir family and very influential in his area.

Mian Tariq Mehmood's constituency has been entirely changed. He will probably contest against Mehmood Bashor Virk, who has very good reputation too.

So,

NA 79 : 60 percent chance of pti win

NA 80 : 40 percent probability of PTI win

NA 81 : Almost no chance

NA 82 : absolutely no chance atm

NA 83 : 70 percent chance of pti win

NA 84 : 50-50

 

[waqar goraya]

Elections in July is really not a good idea. Heat and flooding can prove devastating. I believe like US we should also have a fixed schedule for elections.

I propose that government tenure be reduced by couple of months. A caretaker set up should be installed in first week of February and elections be held in first week of April. And within 10 days of elections next government should be installed.

Ides of March would be a very good day too.

Then this government can give its own budget in June.

Ideally, our election commission should be empowered enough to hold free and fair elections as is done throughout the world.

 

[Mian]

PTI to announce the list of all their candidates from the country tomorrow.

 

[waqar goraya]

PTI to announce the list of all their candidates from the country tomorrow.

I guess 10-20 percent seats will still be left out for deliberations?

 

[Strike!]

PTI to announce the list of all their candidates from the country tomorrow.

According to reports there is still a lot of infighting and Imran has made everyone vow not to leak any info of the meetings to the media.

 

[Strike!]

I guess 10-20 percent seats will still be left out for deliberations?

Final date of submitting nomination forms is on 8th.

 

[Mian]

I guess 10-20 percent seats will still be left out for deliberations?

That's kinda possible Fawad hinted list of 80% will be released today otherwise full list tomorrow but there are still reports of massive infighting and some new joinings like Manzoor Wattoo.

 

[waqar goraya]

Final date of submitting nomination forms is on 8th.

But party affiliation, ticket decisions can still be entertained by ECP. Till withdrawal ?

 

[Mian]

Final date of submitting nomination forms is on 8th.

Imran Ismail is filing nomination papers fo IK from Karachi tomorrow.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Will be filling Imran Khan’s nomination papers tomorrow at 11:30 alongwith senior leadership</p>— Imran Ismail (@ImranIsmailPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranIsmailPTI/status/1004433864863961088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 6, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Mian]

According to reports there is still a lot of infighting and Imran has made everyone vow not to leak any info of the meetings to the media.

True and there are massive fighting and grouping going on within PMLN and PPP too media isn't giving it any coverage.

 

[last_knight]

According to reports there is still a lot of infighting and Imran has made everyone vow not to leak any info of the meetings to the media.

Absolute confidentiality. I was talking to an applicant, Parliamentary Board is in Complete Hibernation mode.
Good to delay it till Eleventh Hour to curb off opportunists from lobbying for contesting as independent candidates.

 

[waqar goraya]

That's kinda possible Fawad hinted list of 80% will be released today otherwise full list tomorrow but there are still reports of massive infighting and some new joinings like Manzoor Wattoo.

O bhai issa tou rehnay hi do..... The man is ideologically more closed to N league as he was engaged in massive corruption during his tenure.

 

[Mian]

O bhai issa tou rehnay hi do..... The man is ideologically more closed to N league as he was engaged in massive corruption during his tenure.

Aur wo jeetne ki position main be nae he but there were reports today ke he is joining.

 

[Mian]

Absolute confidentiality. I was talking to an applicant, Parliamentary Board is in Complete Hibernation mode.
Good to delay it till Eleventh Hour to curb off opportunists from lobbying for contesting as independent candidates.

That's actually a win-win situation.

 

[waqar goraya]

Aur wo jeetne ki position main be nae he but there were reports today ke he is joining.

This would harm cause of PTI. His joining will be exploited by anti PTI people even at greater level than Farooq Bandial.

 

[Mian]

[MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION] i heard IK is going for NA243? but there are also reports that 243 is one of the weakest seat for PTI in Karachi. Can you share some details?

 

[Mian]

This would harm cause of PTI. His joining will be exploited by anti PTI people even at greater level than Farooq Bandial.

Yea kachra he wese be na he laen to behter he. Wese he is missing from PPP since Kaira was given the charge of PPP Punjab.

 

[Syed1]

Yea kachra he wese be na he laen to behter he. Wese he is missing from PPP since Kaira was given the charge of PPP Punjab.

Sad that Kaira didn't come.. he is one of the few in PPP who do not belong there

 

[Mian]

Fawad tweeted:

 

[Mian]

Sad that Kaira didn't come.. he is one of the few in PPP who do not belong there

wo aur aitzaz puraane jayaale hen chorna boht mushkil he unke liay

 

[Mian]

Heard Imran is contesting from conservative Bannu this time in KP? That's the stronghold of JUIF it's gonna be tough PTI is not very popular there.

Imran is expected to contest from 5 seats:

Rawalpindi
Lahore
Karachi
Mianwali
Bannu

IMO he should have selected Quetta instead of Mianwali to create a wave in Balochistan.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Good assessment. Ali Ashraf Mughal is no match for Usman Ibrahim. Ali is a scion of Super Asia family. A businessman with absolutely no grass root links or support. I doubt he can even campaign in the heat of July.Your news regarding Usman Ibrahim proved fake.

Khawaja Saleh only has money but no real political influence. He has fought against Khurram Dastgir on PPP ticket in the past. He won't have any chance against Khurram, but maybe his money can help PTI in the city.

Bilal Ijaz is a relative of Umar Nazir family and very influential in his area.

Mian Tariq Mehmood's constituency has been entirely changed. He will probably contest against Mehmood Bashor Virk, who has very good reputation too.

So,

NA 79 : 60 percent chance of pti win

NA 80 : 40 percent probability of PTI win

NA 81 : Almost no chance

NA 82 : absolutely no chance atm

NA 83 : 70 percent chance of pti win

NA 84 : 50-50

I'd bump the chances up if that is the case. In Pak, the disposable $$$ of the candidate is a significant player in determining election results. Take Okara, for instance, a traditional PMLN stronghold. However a business tycoon, and a political non-entity, Riazul Haq Juj defeated the incumbent government's candidate in a byelection there because he had more money to throw.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Heard Imran is contesting from conservative Bannu this time in KP? That's the stronghold of JUIF it's gonna be tough PTI is not very popular there.

Imran is expected to contest from 5 seats:

Rawalpindi
Lahore
Karachi
Mianwali
Bannu

IMO he should have selected Quetta instead of Mianwali to create a wave in Balochistan.

That's ridiculous. He should have focused on Karachi, Lahore, and the safe seat from Mianwali. No need of any others. KP doesn't need a political wave as was the case in 2013. PTI is going to get reelected on performance. And winning from Rawalpindi, against Hanif Abbasi, is going to be a tough ask this time. Many people are not too happy there with IK's aloofness to their stature as constituents.

Secondly, and most importantly, the more seats he lets go (assuming he wins most), the more anti-PTI swing there will be in the resulting byelections. History is pretty evident on that. PTI lost from both Peshawar and Mianwali when IK relinquished those seats.

 

[Mian]

That's ridiculous. He should have focused on Karachi, Lahore, and the safe seat from Mianwali. No need of any others. KP doesn't need a political wave as was the case in 2013. PTI is going to get reelected on performance. And winning from Rawalpindi, against Hanif Abbasi, is going to be a tough ask this time. Many people are not too happy there with IK's aloofness to their stature as constituents.

Secondly, and most importantly, the more seats he lets go (assuming he wins most), the more anti-PTI swing there will be in the resulting byelections. History is pretty evident on that. PTI lost from both Peshawar and Mianwali when IK relinquished those seats.

Kinda agree with you but Bannu is a safe seat of JUIFso its a good bet. In Rawalpindi PTI don't really have big names there is a reason 2 tickets are going to Sheikh and 2 to Sarwar from 7 NA seats. I am actually surprised can't name a big PTI candidate from Rawalpindi except Ghulam Sarwar Khan!

 

[waqar goraya]

I'd bump the chances up if that is the case. In Pak, the disposable $$$ of the candidate is a significant player in determining election results. Take Okara, for instance, a traditional PMLN stronghold. However a business tycoon, and a political non-entity, Riazul Haq Juj defeated the incumbent government's candidate in a byelection there because he had more money to throw.

The problem is that he does not has support of whole family, even his own Mughal baradari. You got to know the art of spending money too, people are not standing in queues to sell votes either. Besides, he is not the sole proprietor of Super Asia.

Nevertheless, there is no other suitable candidate either.

 

[Mian]

When was the last time a national level leader contested from Karachi? any idea guys? (Altaf Hussain dont count as a national leader)

IK contesting from Karachi can give a good boost to PTI in Karachi

 

[Mian]

Saw a video of a PTI event in Gurjat today organised by local nazryati leadership. They were clearly giving warnings that they will reject any seat adjustment with PMLQ in Gujrat on any seat.

 

[last_knight]

That's ridiculous. He should have focused on Karachi, Lahore, and the safe seat from Mianwali. No need of any others. KP doesn't need a political wave as was the case in 2013. PTI is going to get reelected on performance. And winning from Rawalpindi, against Hanif Abbasi, is going to be a tough ask this time. Many people are not too happy there with IK's aloofness to their stature as constituents.

Secondly, and most importantly, the more seats he lets go (assuming he wins most), the more anti-PTI swing there will be in the resulting byelections. History is pretty evident on that. PTI lost from both Peshawar and Mianwali when IK relinquished those seats.

Rwp, Lhr, Mianwali means at least 5 MPA more likely to win with IK as NA candidate covering their PP constituencies.

 

[Mian]

Rwp, Lhr, Mianwali means at least 5 MPA more likely to win with IK as NA candidate covering their PP constituencies.

Good point!

 

[Syed1]

When was the last time a national level leader contested from Karachi? any idea guys? (Altaf Hussain dont count as a national leader)

IK contesting from Karachi can give a good boost to PTI in Karachi

Benazir from Lyari?

 

[Mian]

Benazir from Lyari?

Lost or gave up the seats maybe because of winning from multiple? I just checked PDF archive files on National Assembly website it looks like Benazir and her father always kept Larkana seats.

For those interested in looking at the stats of our assembly in past here is the link http://www.na.gov.pk/en/content.php?id=121

 

[Mian]

Here is the map of NA-243 (IK constituency in Karachi). What are the chances o PTI there guys? I am not from Karachi so no idea of the area and voters. Looks like most of the area is covered by GUlshan

 

[hussain.r97]

Here is the map of NA-243 (IK constituency in Karachi). What are the chances o PTI there guys? I am not from Karachi so no idea of the area and voters. Looks like most of the area is covered by GUlshan

This seat is probably the one where PTI have the best chances. Gulshan is largely a middle class, mostly urdu speaking neighbourhood, and PTI got very good support here last time too.

 

[hussain.r97]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION]

To add to that, I think this seat also includes Gulistan e Johar. A lot of Pathans live in Gulistan e Johar, should tilt it even further in PTIs favour.

 

[Syed1]

Here is the map of NA-243 (IK constituency in Karachi). What are the chances o PTI there guys? I am not from Karachi so no idea of the area and voters. Looks like most of the area is covered by GUlshan

You know what this could be a masterstroke.. gulshan area comprises of middle to low income families compromising middle class with good levels of literacy which is the traditional voter base of MQM. If IK manages to win from here it will be the start of breaking the hold of MQM on the city.

 

[Mian]

This seat is probably the one where PTI have the best chances. Gulshan is largely a middle class, mostly urdu speaking neighbourhood, and PTI got very good support here last time too.

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION]

To add to that, I think this seat also includes Gulistan e Johar. A lot of Pathans live in Gulistan e Johar, should tilt it even further in PTIs favour.

ahaa thats great thanks for the info buddy! also saw a PTI leader mentioning PTI got like 65k votes from here last time.

 

[Mian]

You know what this could be a masterstroke.. gulshan area comprises of middle to low income families compromising middle class with good levels of literacy which is the traditional voter base of MQM. If IK manages to win from here it will be the start of breaking the hold of MQM on the city.

So we can assume PTI is looking serious for Karachi this time!

PTI is really looking prepared this time they even had the surveys in different parts of the country before welcoming electable. Now all we need to do is give tickets to best candidates tomorrow and start a massive campaign. Last but not least they need to manage the election day really well because thats where PMLN and PPP are far more experienced and can turn the tables.

 

[hussain.r97]

So we can assume PTI is looking serious for Karachi this time!

PTI is really looking prepared this time they even had the surveys in different parts of the country before welcoming electable. Now all we need to do is give tickets to best candidates tomorrow and start a massive campaign. Last but not least they need to manage the election day really well because thats where PMLN and PPP are far more experienced and can turn the tables.

I think 3 seats from Karachi are absolutely confirmed. The rest are dependant on many different factors. PTI should back themselves from district east.

People are counting district central out, but I wouldn't be so quick to do that. PTI Karachi leadership may be useless but the district central president is doing a great job, and they have some former MQM people running the campaign there. It seems unreal now, but don't be surprised if MQM manage to lose from Azizabad.

Another seat with good potential for PTI is NA-251 Orangi Town. I talked to the UC counsellor there, and he's done a great job with grassroots work, and gathering support. Again, PTI Karachi did not really support him, so he did a lot of work out of his own pocket, and with support from his friends. Poor guy isn't very well off, but he's extremely dedicated.

 

[Mian]

I think 3 seats from Karachi are absolutely confirmed. The rest are dependant on many different factors. PTI should back themselves from district east.

People are counting district central out, but I wouldn't be so quick to do that. PTI Karachi leadership may be useless but the district central president is doing a great job, and they have some former MQM people running the campaign there. It seems unreal now, but don't be surprised if MQM manage to lose from Azizabad.

Another seat with good potential for PTI is NA-251 Orangi Town. I talked to the UC counsellor there, and he's done a great job with grassroots work, and gathering support. Again, PTI Karachi did not really support him, so he did a lot of work out of his own pocket, and with support from his friends. Poor guy isn't very well off, but he's extremely dedicated.

MQM losing Azizabad will be a huge upset because even in the by elections results were really disappointing there. These ex MQM camp guys can really help PTI they know the ground reality far better than our selfie group. Heard Faisal vawada is being given ticket from Baldia? what are his chances? Financially he and his MPAs are really strong so running a campaign isn't going to be a problem for them

 

[hussain.r97]

MQM losing Azizabad will be a huge upset because even in the by elections results were really disappointing there. These ex MQM camp guys can really help PTI they know the ground reality far better than our selfie group. Heard Faisal vawada is being given ticket from Baldia? what are his chances? Financially he and his MPAs are really strong so running a campaign isn't going to be a problem for them

Don't think bye election results are a good indicator of support, especially for a party like PTI that relies on a big wave of support before an election.

Regarding Faisal Vada, I'm not sure. If they are financially strong, and they play their cards right then they have chances. The issue is that there is a general feeling of discontent against Karachi leadership like Firdous Naqvi, Imran Ismail, Faisal Vada, Ali Zaidi. We also need to remember that they will be up against MQM and PPP in an area which demographically suits them more than us. I have a strong feeling that PPP may win from Baldia, I think Naz Baloch may run from there?

 

[Mian]

Don't think bye election results are a good indicator of support, especially for a party like PTI that relies on a big wave of support before an election.

Regarding Faisal Vada, I'm not sure. If they are financially strong, and they play their cards right then they have chances. The issue is that there is a general feeling of discontent against Karachi leadership like Firdous Naqvi, Imran Ismail, Faisal Vada, Ali Zaidi. We also need to remember that they will be up against MQM and PPP in an area which demographically suits them more than us. I have a strong feeling that PPP may win from Baldia, I think Naz Baloch may run from there?

Not sure about PPP candidates but heard Bilawal said Shehla Raza will contest against IK? One confirmed PPP seat is Syed Ghani he will probably win it and Gabol i guess will have a little trouble locals are not happy with him.

 

[hussain.r97]

Not sure about PPP candidates but heard Bilawal said Shehla Raza will contest against IK? One confirmed PPP seat is Syed Ghani he will probably win it and Gabol i guess will have a little trouble locals are not happy with him.

PPP will definitely take a few seats, especially in Karachi West, Malir, and Korangi. Their ground team is very strong, and their leadership are doing a great job at campaigning. They have been active on the ground for 6 months, PTI are still almost nowhere to be seen. PPP have built a lot of support in working class areas to the extent that Arif Alvi's seat is no longer a PTI safe seat.

 

[Mian]

PPP will definitely take a few seats, especially in Karachi West, Malir, and Korangi. Their ground team is very strong, and their leadership are doing a great job at campaigning. They have been active on the ground for 6 months, PTI are still almost nowhere to be seen. PPP have built a lot of support in working class areas to the extent that Arif Alvi's seat is no longer a PTI safe seat.

PTI Karachi should have cashed the moment when MQM was in a total chaos but PTI left the ground for PPP and PSP to gain

 

[waqar goraya]

PPP will definitely take a few seats, especially in Karachi West, Malir, and Korangi. Their ground team is very strong, and their leadership are doing a great job at campaigning. They have been active on the ground for 6 months, PTI are still almost nowhere to be seen. PPP have built a lot of support in working class areas to the extent that Arif Alvi's seat is no longer a PTI safe seat.

Working class rooting for PPP? That is very surprising.