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Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

Which will be the top party after the upcoming general elections?

  • Total voters
    94
PakWarrior said:
Awesome work Bro.

Just a few changes you should make on the sheet just to play it safe.

1. From Faisalabad give PTI 4 seats not 5. Give it to PMLN. It can be any of the seats that you've given to PTI as we can just do a tally count at the end.

2. From Toba Tek Singh give PTI 1 out of the 3 seats not 2. Give it to PMLN.

3. From Jhang give PTI 1 out of the 3 sears not 2. Give it PPP or just put down independent for the seat.

4. From Lahore give PTI 4 seats not 6. Leave NA125 to Imran and change any two of the other seats to PMLN.

5. From PakPattan give PTI 1 seat not 2. Give it PMLN.

6. From Vehari give PTI 2 out of the 4 seats not 3. Give it to PMLN.

7. From Bahwalpur give PTI 3 seats out of 5 not 4. Give it PMLN.

Everything else is perfect. If you could make the above changes soon and upload it then we can do a final total count.

Thanks.
Click to expand...

Agree with most of your amendments, great feedback!
 
hussain.r97 said:
[MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

Thanks for the suggestions, I have updated the sheet now. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sS7UjPvo4Pi0o69Cz_EMoY0E1XGlKcyDsNMM8FgzEmY/edit?usp=sharing

PTI
Safe - 42
Leaning - 55

PML-N
Safe - 18
Leaning - 26

PPP
Safe - 23
Leaning - 15

Others
Safe - 13
Leaning - 31

Tossups - 49
Click to expand...

Regional Breakup
(including safe and leaning)

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Malakand Region (9 seats)
PTI - 5
PML-N - 1
MMA - 1
Tossups - 2

Hazara (8 seats)
PTI - 5
PML-N - 2
Tossups - 1

Peshawar Valley (14 seats)
PTI - 12
ANP - 1
Tossups - 1

South KPK (8 seats)
PTI - 4
MMA - 4

Tribal Areas (12 seats)
PTI - 7
MMA - 2
IND - 3

ICT
Islamabad (3 seats)
PTI - 2
PML-N - 1

Punjab
Potohar (13 seats)
PTI - 3
PML-N - 4
AML - 2
PML-Q - 1
Tossups - 3

Northeast Punjab (20 seats)
PTI - 6
PML-N - 7
PML-Q - 2
Tossups - 4

West Punjab (11 seats)
PTI - 5
PML-N - 1
Tossups - 5

Central Punjab (46 seats)
PTI - 15
PML-N - 22
PPP - 1
IND - 1
Tossups - 7

South Punjab (53 seats)
PTI - 27
PML-N - 7
PPP - 5
PML-Q - 1
PML-Z - 1
IND - 1
Tossups - 11

Sindh
Interior Sindh (35 seats)
PPP - 25
GDA - 4
PTI - 1
Tossup - 5

Urdu (24 seats)
MQM-P - 9
PPP - 6
PTI - 2
PSP - 2
Tossups - 5

Balochistan
North Balochistan (6 seats)
PKMAP - 1
PTI - 1
PPP - 1
Tossups - 3

Quetta (5 seats)
PKMAP - 2
MMA - 1
PML-N - 1
Tossups - 1

South Balochistan (5 seats)
BAP - 3
BNP - 1
MMA - 1
 
Right guys I'm going to make my final PTI prediction.

This is based on Hussain Bro's final amended sheet and my own feelings about what might happen on the day and also how likely or unlikely that toss ups go either way.

I predict that PTI will win 102 seats overall.

I know from Hussain Bro's sheet the predicted total is 110 but I'm knocking off 8 seats just to play it safe even more. I of course hope that PTI win more seats inshallah.

I base my 102 prediction on:

1. Everything goes reasonably well for PTI on the day.

2. The turnout is not great. It could be a 46% turnout due to rain. In 2013 the election turn out was 55%.

3. PMLN end up winning more tight seats in Punjab than we originally thought.


So I predict a total of 102 seats for PTI.

Bear in mind they need 137 seats to form government. Getting another 35 seats from independents and sympathetic parties will still be tough.

We might even get a PMLN and PPP coalition. This will happen if PTI fail to get to the 137 number with the help of independents and other smaller parties.

The party with the most number of total votes gets the privilege to form government first. If they don't (assuming it's PTI) then PMLN and PPP will start their own negotiations.

It will be all about how well negotiations go between PTI and others (independent a and sympathetic smaller parties). This could take up to a week after the elections.
 
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PakWarrior said:
Right guys I'm going to make my final PTI prediction.

This is based on Hussain Bro's final amended sheet and my own feelings about what might happen on the day and also how likely or unlikely that toss ups go either way.

I predict that PTI will win 102 seats overall.

I know from Hussain Bro's sheet the predicted total is 110 but I'm knocking off 8 seats just to play it safe even more. I of course hope that PTI win more seats inshallah.

I base my 102 prediction on:

1. Everything goes reasonably well for PTI on the day.

2. The turnout is not great. It could be a 46% turnout due to rain. In 2013 the election turn out was 55%.

3. PMLN end up winning more tight seats in Punjab than we originally thought.


So I predict a total of 102 seats for PTI.

Bear in mind they need 137 seats to form government. Getting another 35 seats from independents and sympathetic parties will still be tough.

We might even get a PMLN and PPP coalition. This will happen if PTI fail to get to the 137 number with the help of independents and other smaller parties.

The party with the most number of total votes gets the privilege to form government first. If they don't (assuming it's PTI) then PMLN and PPP will start their own negotiations.

It will be all about how well negotiations go between PTI and others (independent a and sympathetic smaller parties). This could take up to a week after the elections.
Click to expand...

Fair prediction. I would also predict around 100 - 105 seats. My sheet prediction gives a range of 42 (PTI having a really bad day) to 135 (PTI having a perfect day), and I think I would say PTI will end up below the middle value. Your points are really good and I would like to add that PML-N's election machine is a good 30 years old, they know how to fight an election and win votes.
 
hussain.r97 said:
Fair prediction. I would also predict around 100 - 105 seats. My sheet prediction gives a range of 42 (PTI having a really bad day) to 135 (PTI having a perfect day), and I think I would say PTI will end up below the middle value. Your points are really good and I would like to add that PML-N's election machine is a good 30 years old, they know how to fight an election and win votes.
Click to expand...

I agree Bro.

I also agree with you about PMLN election machine. These guys are masters at managing the election day.

Above all Allah has the most power. Nothing can happen without his will.
 
hussain.r97 said:
Fair prediction. I would also predict around 100 - 105 seats. My sheet prediction gives a range of 42 (PTI having a really bad day) to 135 (PTI having a perfect day), and I think I would say PTI will end up below the middle value. Your points are really good and I would like to add that PML-N's election machine is a good 30 years old, they know how to fight an election and win votes.
Click to expand...

Quite on the dot. My prediction is around the 107-seat number. I am basing this prediction on:

1. PTI is the only party whose campaign is going ahead at full steam. None other comes close. The wind has gone out of PMLN's sails - so much so they are bringing in Junaid Safdar-Sharif to energize it meanwhile betting heavily on a bail for their supremos. PPP is strong in Sindh and yet still its electioneering can be best described as a traffic-jam campaign.
2. Swing voters disheartened by PPP and PMLN are aligning behind PTI on the mantras of 'in ko bhi aik chance milna chahiye' and 'azmaye hue ko dobara azmana bewaqufi hai'.
3. Youngsters whose political awakening came at the height of PTI fever (and who were unable to vote in 2013 due to age issues) are itching to get their hands on the ballot paper so they can stamp the Bat.
4. PTI's performance in KPK has essentially won them a province that never votes for an outgoing incumbent.
5. A huge bunch of electables - with their enviable election machinery - have joined the party.
6. PTI is more experienced in terms of polling day activities - particularly training of polling agents.
7. PTI has made some good seat adjustments with regional parties.

Turnout would be around 55-60% because there is a push from both of the main parties (PMLN and PTI) to get out and vote and private TV channels are running extensive pro-voting campaigns. Furthermore there is increased general awareness among the voters for the importance of their vote. And I don't think any catastrophic rains weather system is predicted in Pakistan that would drag the turnout figure down*. The weather would be pleasant in most parts of the country with light to medium rain in the early hours of the morning - mostly concentrated in Upper Punjab and KP. At best, there would be some water on the roads.

*This is based on current data. Most accurate forecast will come in around Monday.
 
awan_from_soon said:
Quite on the dot. My prediction is around the 107-seat number. I am basing this prediction on:

1. PTI is the only party whose campaign is going ahead at full steam. None other comes close. The wind has gone out of PMLN's sails - so much so they are bringing in Junaid Safdar-Sharif to energize it meanwhile betting heavily on a bail for their supremos. PPP is strong in Sindh and yet still its electioneering can be best described as a traffic-jam campaign.
2. Swing voters disheartened by PPP and PMLN are aligning behind PTI on the mantras of 'in ko bhi aik chance milna chahiye' and 'azmaye hue ko dobara azmana bewaqufi hai'.
3. Youngsters whose political awakening came at the height of PTI fever (and who were unable to vote in 2013 due to age issues) are itching to get their hands on the ballot paper so they can stamp the Bat.
4. PTI's performance in KPK has essentially won them a province that never votes for an outgoing incumbent.
5. A huge bunch of electables - with their enviable election machinery - have joined the party.
6. PTI is more experienced in terms of polling day activities - particularly training of polling agents.
7. PTI has made some good seat adjustments with regional parties.

Turnout would be around 55-60% because there is a push from both of the main parties (PMLN and PTI) to get out and vote and private TV channels are running extensive pro-voting campaigns. Furthermore there is increased general awareness among the voters for the importance of their vote. And I don't think any catastrophic rains weather system is predicted in Pakistan that would drag the turnout figure down*. The weather would be pleasant in most parts of the country with light to medium rain in the early hours of the morning - mostly concentrated in Upper Punjab and KP. At best, there would be some water on the roads.

*This is based on current data. Most accurate forecast will come in around Monday.
Click to expand...

Good post, some very good points here. Things are in PTIs favour, all we need now is a really top notch closing week before the elections.
 
hussain.r97 said:
Good post, some very good points here. Things are in PTIs favour, all we need now is a really top notch closing week before the elections.
Click to expand...

Exactly, the closing jalsas of Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad are extremely important in that regard. They should have good turnouts and impactful and relevant speeches.
 
awan_from_soon said:
Exactly, the closing jalsas of Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad are extremely important in that regard. They should have good turnouts and impactful and relevant speeches.
Click to expand...

A sucessful Karachi jalsa can easily swing 2-3 seats into PTIs favour, mainly Faisal Vawda and Ali Zaidi's seats. I don't have much hope from Amir Liaquat, he is contesting against Farooq Sattar.
 
I don't remember exactly but was there any amendment in constitution to counter forward blocks by stopping people from voting for other party after 2013? We discussed all the scenarios so far except one. What are the chances of a forward block coming out of PMLN to vote for PTI coalition govt? I still remember Maneka with a forward block around 50 MPAs of PMLQ helped Shahbaz in Punjab Assembly from 2008-2013 otherwise PPP+PMLQ had more numbers combined than PMLN in Punjab Assembly.
 
Don't know why Google doc won't download at my mobile [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

Let me give you BREAKING NEWS.

Rana Shamim (PMLn) had some 15-20 points lead over PTI in Roshan Pakistan survey. Current scenario, PTI is winning this seat which even very optimistic PTI fans wouldn't have imagined 30 days ago.

PMLn groups from UC levels, PMLn influential groups are joining PTI for support in GE-18. JOINING IN BULK. EN MASA INFLUX.

I never thought PTI will win even 50% seats from Sialkot. Situation as of today, PTI is going to win at least 4 of 5 NA seats if not all 5.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] As I told you earlier, about PMLn
NA seats prediction, 50 b nahi honi.
PTI looking set for 130+ seats in Free and Fair elections.

This week : Wait for next surveys.
Next Week : Wait for Boycotts.
 
Last edited:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="ca" dir="ltr">الیکشن کمیشن بھی سنے اور قومی دھارے میں لانے والے بھی<br><br>On 17 July, a press conference was held at Chach marriage hall, Hazro from 1400 hrs to 1420 hrs in the supervision of Qazi Ahmed Akbar, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PTI?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PTI</a> candidate PP2, and Masroor Nawaz Jhangvi. <a href="https://t.co/0m2iJnTAOx">pic.twitter.com/0m2iJnTAOx</a></p>— Ali Shehzad Khan (@AliShehzadK5) <a href="https://twitter.com/AliShehzadK5/status/1019527914415673344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 18, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Some shameless display of bigotry in the run up to the elections.
 
last_knight said:
Don't know why Google doc won't download at my mobile [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

Let me give you BREAKING NEWS.

Rana Shamim (PMLn) had some 15-20 points lead over PTI in Roshan Pakistan survey. Current scenario, PTI is winning this seat which even very optimistic PTI fans wouldn't have imagined 30 days ago.

PMLn groups from UC levels, PMLn influential groups are joining PTI for support in GE-18. JOINING IN BULK. EN MASA INFLUX.

I never thought PTI will win even 50% seats from Sialkot. Situation as of today, PTI is going to win at least 4 of 5 NA seats if not all 5.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] As I told you earlier, about PMLn
NA seats prediction, 50 b nahi honi.
PTI looking set for 130+ seats in Free and Fair elections.

This week : Wait for next surveys.
Next Week : Wait for Boycotts.
Click to expand...

IA we can do this and use it to bring change. I know the expectations will be incredibly high and some will inevitably be disappointed but the PTI need to have a clear plan with Ministers that are capable of delivering.
 
One man is playing a MASSIVE part in getting PMLN and PPP provincial and national assembly candidates or supporters from switching their allegiances to PTI.

And his name is CHAUDHRY MOHAMMAD SARWAR.

Guys I cannot overstate his importance in helping Imran.

He has been working around the clock behind the scenes.

He is a good man.
 
last_knight said:
Don't know why Google doc won't download at my mobile [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION]
Click to expand...

You probably need the Google Docs app I think?

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

Let me give you BREAKING NEWS.

Rana Shamim (PMLn) had some 15-20 points lead over PTI in Roshan Pakistan survey. Current scenario, PTI is winning this seat which even very optimistic PTI fans wouldn't have imagined 30 days ago.

PMLn groups from UC levels, PMLn influential groups are joining PTI for support in GE-18. JOINING IN BULK. EN MASA INFLUX.

I never thought PTI will win even 50% seats from Sialkot. Situation as of today, PTI is going to win at least 4 of 5 NA seats if not all 5.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] As I told you earlier, about PMLn
NA seats prediction, 50 b nahi honi.
PTI looking set for 130+ seats in Free and Fair elections.

This week : Wait for next surveys.
Next Week : Wait for Boycotts.
Click to expand...

That is awesome news man! Things are just getting better and better for PTI, really optimistic for a big win now, but also trying not to get too ahead of myself!
 
PakWarrior said:
One man is playing a MASSIVE part in getting PMLN and PPP provincial and national assembly candidates or supporters from switching their allegiances to PTI.

And his name is CHAUDHRY MOHAMMAD SARWAR.

Guys I cannot overstate his importance in helping Imran.

He has been working around the clock behind the scenes.

He is a good man.
Click to expand...

I've been following him, and he deserves a lot more appreciation than he gets. He was even responsible in resolving a few fights over a few tickets!
 
Guys let's all give a final PTI prediction. Give an exact number.

So far we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 100 to 105 seats (Bro can you choose an exact figure? just to get one number, thanks).

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

Mian Bro and all other Brothers in this thread awaiting your final numbers.
 
PakWarrior said:
Guys let's all give a final PTI prediction. Give an exact number.

So far we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 100 to 105 seats (Bro can you choose an exact figure? just to get one number, thanks).

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

Mian Bro and all other Brothers in this thread awaiting your final numbers.
Click to expand...

I'll say 105
 
Still maintain that PTI would get around 90 seats, even that seems a bit optimistic to me.
 
Watching TV and some PML-N ads playing too. They are using Kulsoom Nawaz's illness to get sympathy votes as well as portraying themselves as victims and fighters for the rights of the Pakistani people. The whole thing is focused on Nawaz Sharif, not Shahbaz. Another one is falsely saying that PTI took 300 billion Rs. debt in KPK, how is that even allowed?
 
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1746923/1-20000-cctv-cameras-monitor-5776-polling-stations-sindh/

This is from a few days ago, but 5776 CCTV cameras will be installed in Sindh polling stations to monitor the elections. I really hope a large amount of them go to Karachi. Karachi needs to be monitored like crazy, MQM rigging was crazy last time. Not only did they stuff ballot boxes, but many people came back saying "Hum to balley ko dalney gaye they magar patang ko dal kar aagaye", MQM ghundas held people at gunpoint and threathened people.
 
Should have never given a ticket to Sheryar Afridi

He obtained a stay order on gas connection looool..what a fool
 
Last edited:
PakWarrior said:
Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats.

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats.

5. Syed1: 90 seats.
Click to expand...

My prediction:

1. KP - 25 seats
2. Sindh - 3 seats
3. Balouchistan - 2 seats
4. South Punjab - 25
Rest of Punjab - 35

Total: 90 seats

Depends a lot on turnout and success of PTI jalsas and campaigns in the lead up to the election day.
 
saeedhk said:
My prediction:

1. KP - 25 seats
2. Sindh - 3 seats
3. Balouchistan - 2 seats
4. South Punjab - 25
Rest of Punjab - 35

Total: 90 seats

Depends a lot on turnout and success of PTI jalsas and campaigns in the lead up to the election day.
Click to expand...

Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. saeedhk: 90 seats.
 
I think PTI will end up with 95 seats, would love more but I feel it isn't going to happen.

Put me down for 95.

If we end up getting 110+ that would be a bonus!
 
Apart from the turnout - considering the electoral "polarization", it should be more important than 2013, and swinging the PTI way if you follow the patterns - what about the demographics ? Pakistan has a very very young population (median age of 22, which means half of the pop is under that age), and in the five years gap since 2013, how much would PTI win, when we all know that the youth is often by default pro PTI more than not ? Imagine how many Insafians who were 15/16/... in 2013 can now vote, and how would that fluctuate in PTI's favor ?
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION]
 
mmkextreme_1 said:
I think PTI will end up with 95 seats, would love more but I feel it isn't going to happen.

Put me down for 95.

If we end up getting 110+ that would be a bonus!
Click to expand...

Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.
 
last_knight said:
Don't know why Google doc won't download at my mobile [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

Let me give you BREAKING NEWS.

Rana Shamim (PMLn) had some 15-20 points lead over PTI in Roshan Pakistan survey. Current scenario, PTI is winning this seat which even very optimistic PTI fans wouldn't have imagined 30 days ago.

PMLn groups from UC levels, PMLn influential groups are joining PTI for support in GE-18. JOINING IN BULK. EN MASA INFLUX.

I never thought PTI will win even 50% seats from Sialkot. Situation as of today, PTI is going to win at least 4 of 5 NA seats if not all 5.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] As I told you earlier, about PMLn
NA seats prediction, 50 b nahi honi.
PTI looking set for 130+ seats in Free and Fair elections.

This week : Wait for next surveys.
Next Week : Wait for Boycotts.
Click to expand...

Great news buddy things are looking great! What about Firdoa Awan situation now? I heard she is responsible for decreasing her own chances by going for a weak MPA panel instead of the one PTI wanted to give her.

If our weakest candidates Samsaam Bukhari is gaining ground in Okara than surely the wave is building!
 
PakWarrior said:
Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.
Click to expand...

Why you took me out of your list :ssmith
 
Syed1 said:
Why you took me out of your list :ssmith
Click to expand...

Sorry Bro I made a typing/format error whilst typing.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. Syed1: 90 seats.
 
PakWarrior said:
Guys let's all give a final PTI prediction. Give an exact number.

So far we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 100 to 105 seats (Bro can you choose an exact figure? just to get one number, thanks).

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

Mian Bro and all other Brothers in this thread awaiting your final numbers.
Click to expand...

I will give 98 for now. I am still playing safe (learned the lesson from 2013).
 
So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.

7. Syed1: 90 seats.
 
Bewal Express said:
93
Click to expand...

Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.

7. Syed1: 90 seats.

8. Bewal Express: 93 seats.
 
Mian said:
I will give 98 for now. I am still playing safe (learned the lesson from 2013).
Click to expand...


Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.

7. Syed1: 90 seats.

8. Bewal Express: 93 seats.

9.Mian: 98 seats.
 
After all the prediction i think we should get an average number based on all predictions? Currently there are 9 predictions and the average number i am getting is around 99 (98.55 to be exact)
 
Mian said:
After all the prediction i think we should get an average number based on all predictions? Currently there are 9 predictions and the average number i am getting is around 99 (98.55 to be exact)
Click to expand...

Yes Bro I was already planning on doing an average.

I'm going to let people give their final PTI numbers for the next six hours today.

Then I'll post the list and do an average.
 
last_knight said:
Don't know why Google doc won't download at my mobile [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] [MENTION=59262]shaaik[/MENTION] [MENTION=21699]Pakpak[/MENTION] [MENTION=138254]Syed1[/MENTION] [MENTION=7701]Prince of Pakistan[/MENTION]

Let me give you BREAKING NEWS.

Rana Shamim (PMLn) had some 15-20 points lead over PTI in Roshan Pakistan survey. Current scenario, PTI is winning this seat which even very optimistic PTI fans wouldn't have imagined 30 days ago.

PMLn groups from UC levels, PMLn influential groups are joining PTI for support in GE-18. JOINING IN BULK. EN MASA INFLUX.

I never thought PTI will win even 50% seats from Sialkot. Situation as of today, PTI is going to win at least 4 of 5 NA seats if not all 5.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] As I told you earlier, about PMLn
NA seats prediction, 50 b nahi honi.
PTI looking set for 130+ seats in Free and Fair elections.

This week : Wait for next surveys.
Next Week : Wait for Boycotts.
Click to expand...

That's exceptional news. I was expecting only 2 seats from Sialkot at best - Dar's (strong candidate with great team) and Ghulam Abbas's (due to contesting against Zahid Hamid's son). The rest seamed like lost causes but you have really put my hopes up from this district.
 
enkidu_ said:
Apart from the turnout - considering the electoral "polarization", it should be more important than 2013, and swinging the PTI way if you follow the patterns - what about the demographics ? Pakistan has a very very young population (median age of 22, which means half of the pop is under that age), and in the five years gap since 2013, how much would PTI win, when we all know that the youth is often by default pro PTI more than not ? Imagine how many Insafians who were 15/16/... in 2013 can now vote, and how would that fluctuate in PTI's favor ?
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION]
Click to expand...

I did a bit of number digging earlier in this thread:

Last time there were 84 million registered and a total of 45 million voted. This time there are around 106 million voters so even if the turnout remains same like 2013 which is 55% that means 58 millions voters (13 million more than 2013). In case the turnout is 60% it will result in 63 million voters (18 million more than 2013). The higher the turnout the better it is for PTI. Remember 2013 turnout of 55% was the biggest turnout in our history and PTI ended up as the second largest party based on number of votes.

All these new voters are young and will swing mostly PTI way but PTI shouldn't relax like 2013 because election day politics is far more important PTI need to make sure these guys come out to vote instead of staying at home thinking ke mere aik vote se kia ferq perna he. To motivate them for voting you need show them the videos and stories of how overseas are coming just to vote so why can't they get out of their comfort home when people are traveling from overseas.
 
awan_from_soon said:
That's exceptional news. I was expecting only 2 seats from Sialkot at best - Dar's (strong candidate with great team) and Ghulam Abbas's (due to contesting against Zahid Hamid's son). The rest seamed like lost causes but you have really put my hopes up from this district.
Click to expand...

I am actually surprised our weakest candidate Samsaam Bukhari is showing good fight and it's PTI vs Ind now on his seat otherwise he was coming third a month ago.
 
PakWarrior said:
Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.

7. Syed1: 90 seats.

8. Bewal Express: 93 seats.

9.Mian: 98 seats.
Click to expand...

Its awan_from_soon, the tribe :) By the way nice work collating the predictions!
 
Great news one of the finest leader from FATA joins PTI. Ajmal Khan Wazir is probably the best voice from FATA and he have been raising FATA issues from years.

DiYTsWIXcAAu2nG.jpg:small
 
Mian said:
Capt Muhammad Safdar Awan is waiting for you and other tribesmen to come on road for him :yk
Click to expand...

Don't think so. For one simple reason: being a martial race, Awans are overrepresented in the army. And with the vitriol being spewed against the institution by PMLN, expect us all chill at our homes. :)) Furthermore, about 30 members of my extended family in Soon Valley are all voting for Umer Aslam in place of Sumaira Malik. So, you get the idea!
 
We discussed all the scenarios so far except one.

I don't remember exactly but was there any amendment in constitution to counter forward blocks in Assemblies to stop people from voting for other party after 2013? What are the chances of a forward block coming out of PMLN to vote for PTI coalition govt? I still remember Maneka with a forward block around 50 MPAs of PMLQ helped Shahbaz in Punjab Assembly from 2008-2013 otherwise PPP+PMLQ had more numbers combined than PMLN in Punjab Assembly.

Any idea guys?
 
Mian said:
I did a bit of number digging earlier in this thread:

Last time there were 84 million registered and a total of 45 million voted. This time there are around 106 million voters so even if the turnout remains same like 2013 which is 55% that means 58 millions voters (13 million more than 2013). In case the turnout is 60% it will result in 63 million voters (18 million more than 2013). The higher the turnout the better it is for PTI. Remember 2013 turnout of 55% was the biggest turnout in our history and PTI ended up as the second largest party based on number of votes.

All these new voters are young and will swing mostly PTI way but PTI shouldn't relax like 2013 because election day politics is far more important PTI need to make sure these guys come out to vote instead of staying at home thinking ke mere aik vote se kia ferq perna he. To motivate them for voting you need show them the videos and stories of how overseas are coming just to vote so why can't they get out of their comfort home when people are traveling from overseas.
Click to expand...

Fantastic analysis Mian Bro.

Bro I think the turnout is going to be between 46 to 50%. It won't be as high as 2013. I hope I'm wrong.

Even with a say 47% turn out it will still mean another 3 to 4 million voters compared to 2013. Many of these will be the youth voters who weren't eligible to vote in 2013.

I also fear the complacent voter. The voter that thinks that there is no point going to vote as PTI will win anyway. This could be a HUGE SETBACK for PTI.
 
88 seats.. i think the independants will have a big say in the election...i am being purposely pessimistic..
 
awan_from_soon said:
Don't think so. For one simple reason: being a martial race, Awans are overrepresented in the army. And with the vitriol being spewed against the institution by PMLN, expect us all chill at our homes. :)) Furthermore, about 30 members of my extended family in Soon Valley are all voting for Umer Aslam in place of Sumaira Malik. So, you get the idea!
Click to expand...

you are guys ditching him for big bad army :( on a serious note what are PTI chances in Khushab? Umer Aslam from what i heard is luike Sohail Kamrial always endup runner up. Sumaira Malik still strong?
 
Eagle_Eye said:
142

I am an optimist :)
Click to expand...


Hehe. If you think it'll be 142 seats then 142 seats is what I shall put down. Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.

7. Syed1: 90 seats.

8. Bewal Express: 93 seats.

9.Mian: 98 seats.

10.Eagle_Eye: 142 seats.
 
the Great Khan said:
88 seats.. i think the independants will have a big say in the election...i am being purposely pessimistic..
Click to expand...


Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.

7. Syed1: 90 seats.

8. Bewal Express: 93 seats.

9.Mian: 98 seats.

10.Eagle_Eye: 142 seats.

11. the Great Khan: 88 seats.
 
saeedhk said:
My prediction:

1. KP - 25 seats
2. Sindh - 3 seats
3. Balouchistan - 2 seats
4. South Punjab - 25
Rest of Punjab - 35

Total: 90 seats

Depends a lot on turnout and success of PTI jalsas and campaigns in the lead up to the election day.
Click to expand...

I would go with [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION]

I would like to be more optimistic but even 90 is a huge improvement from where we were 2 months ago.
 
PakWarrior said:
Fantastic analysis Mian Bro.

Bro I think the turnout is going to be between 46 to 50%. It won't be as high as 2013. I hope I'm wrong.

Even with a say 47% turn out it will still mean another 3 to 4 million voters compared to 2013. Many of these will be the youth voters who weren't eligible to vote in 2013.

I also fear the complacent voter. The voter that thinks that there is no point going to vote as PTI will win anyway. This could be a HUGE SETBACK for PTI.
Click to expand...

Exactly we need to motivate them to get out of home on 25th no matter if its raining or is 50 degrees.

One more thing guys any idea if ECP already launched the SMS service like last time to check polling station or they are going to do it later this week? 8300 SMS service so far isn't giving any polling station details and just telling us block code and serial number.
 
I've heard that there is a possibility of a PTI-PPP alliance, but in order for it to happen, PTI will ask Zardari to be removed from consideration..anyone else hear this?
 
Waseem said:
I would go with [MENTION=48598]saeedhk[/MENTION]

I would like to be more optimistic but even 90 is a huge improvement from where we were 2 months ago.
Click to expand...


Thanks Bro.

So now we have:

1. Me (PakWarrior) : 102 seats.

2. Hussain : 105 seats

3. Awam_from_soon: 107 seats.

4. Pakpak: 95 seats

5. Strike!: 102 seats.

6. mmkextreme_1: 95 seats.

7. Syed1: 90 seats.

8. Bewal Express: 93 seats.

9.Mian: 98 seats.

10.Eagle_Eye: 142 seats.

11. the Great Khan: 88 seats.

12. saeedhk: 90 seats.

13. Waseem: 90 seats.
 
Mian said:
We discussed all the scenarios so far except one.

I don't remember exactly but was there any amendment in constitution to counter forward blocks in Assemblies to stop people from voting for other party after 2013? What are the chances of a forward block coming out of PMLN to vote for PTI coalition govt? I still remember Maneka with a forward block around 50 MPAs of PMLQ helped Shahbaz in Punjab Assembly from 2008-2013 otherwise PPP+PMLQ had more numbers combined than PMLN in Punjab Assembly.

Any idea guys?
Click to expand...

Yes, it was covered in the 18th Amendment (2010). Primarily in article 63A which pertains to defection.
 
awan_from_soon said:
Yes, it was covered in the 18th Amendment (2010). Primarily in article 63A which pertains to defection.
Click to expand...

oh i see but that amendment came in 2010 and from what i remember maneka and his forward block kept supporting Shahbaz govt till 2012?
 
Mian said:
you are guys ditching him for big bad army :( on a serious note what are PTI chances in Khushab? Umer Aslam from what i heard is luike Sohail Kamrial always endup runner up. Sumaira Malik still strong?
Click to expand...

It is going to be a tight race. Sumaira Malik's son didn't do her any favors in the last tenure because he was pretty lax in his attitude. Umer Aslam is currently in a tossup situation with Sumaira. It can go either way.

mmkextreme_1 said:
I've heard that there is a possibility of a PTI-PPP alliance, but in order for it to happen, PTI will ask Zardari to be removed from consideration..anyone else hear this?
Click to expand...

Haven't heard of it. I don't think PTI will ever ally itself with PPP. It would be a political suicide.
 
Mian said:
oh i see but that amendment came in 2010 and from what i remember maneka and his forward block kept supporting Shahbaz govt till 2012?
Click to expand...

I think that's because their initial action came in the wake of the 2008 elections, when the amendment wasn't in effect.
 
awan_from_soon said:
I think that's because their initial action came in the wake of the 2008 elections, when the amendment wasn't in effect.
Click to expand...

True i was confused because this theory is being spin in media again that a forward blocked can be built within PMLN after the elections.
 
awan_from_soon said:
It is going to be a tight race. Sumaira Malik's son didn't do her any favors in the last tenure because he was pretty lax in his attitude. Umer Aslam is currently in a tossup situation with Sumaira. It can go either way.
Click to expand...

i see. this time both sisters are contesting against PTI. Saw Ayela Malik interview her family is contesting against Khan in Mianwali (well they stand no chance against Khan and Shadi khel so they will be number 3rd)
 
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