After the jalsa, this is my prediction for Karachi:
NA-236 Malir I - This one is a PPP safe seat, it is the only truly rural constituency in Karachi.
NA-237 Malir II - Another PPP safe seat, Abdul Hakeem Baloch is contesting from here.
NA-238 Malir III - This is a tossup between MQM and PPP. PPP have really worked hard in Malir, and the lower class demographic may play into their hands.
NA-239 Korangi I - This is an MQM leaning seat, but I wouldn't count PPP out from this one, this is not a typical middle class area of Karachi, its more lower class.
NA-240 Korangi II - This is one of the seats where PSP are strong. They have campaigned well here, and have got a good candidate too. However, MQM will give a good fight due to their strong party votebank.
NA-241 Korangi III - This is an MQM leaning seat, PPP and PSP will also bag a decent share of votes too.
NA-242 Karachi East I - Another MQM leaning seat, but PTI will do reasonably well here, I won't count them out, especially after the jalsa.
NA-243 Karachi East II - This seat should be a PTI safe seat, Imran Khan is contesting from here. I'm originally from this constituency, reasonably educated middle class area, PTI have very good support here.
NA-244 Karachi East III - After the jalsa I would say this seat belongs to PTI. Ali Zaidi is running from here, and although he hasn't run the greatest campaign, PTI has a big party votebank.
NA-245 Karachi East IV - Farooq Sattar vs Amir Liaquat Hussain, this one will be one to keep your eyes on. It is an uphill battle for PTI, but the constituency is another middle class area, and the wave from the jalsa may have just turned this into a swing constituency rather than an MQM leaning seat. I still think MQM will pull this off, but it's difficult to call.
NA-246 Karachi South I - This is the Lyari seat, PPP will win this by a complete landslide, though I am hearing PTI are on top on one of the PS seats.
NA-247 Karachi South II - This is a PTI safe seat, Dr Arif Alvi will win this without any issues, Farooq Sattar will be a distant second. Jibran Nasir has no chance, but I think he will win his PS seat.
NA-248 Karachi West I - PPP will win this seat. It could have been won by PTI, but they messed up the ticket allocation here. Being a rural constituency, the candidate here plays a far bigger role.
NA-249 Karachi West II - PTI will win this, especially after the jalsa. Faisal Vawda is running a wonderful campaign, and MQM have made a big blunder by doing a seat adjustment with PML-N. I really don't see Muhajirs turning up to vote for Shahbaz Sharif, especially after those paan comments, Karachiites really took that to heart.
NA-250 Karachi West III - This seat may just be a tossup now. I was hearing that MQM and ANP will do a seat adjustment, with the ANP candidate Shahi Syed contesting, but I don't think it materialised. I also read that an MQM MPA candidate has announced support for Shahi Syed. With these issues, the PTI may get much closer than anticipated. I will give this to MQM for now, but we PTI are very much in the race.
NA-251 Karachi West IV - PTI have union councillors in this constituency, and they have done a decent job. I am going to be bold, and predict this as a tossup between MQM and PTI, with PTI only just coming out on top.
NA-252 Karachi West V - This seat will most likely go to MQM, PPP will come second, bagging a decent share.
NA-253 Karachi Central I - Mustafa Kamal is contesting from here, and his popularity will win him the seat. I won't count MQM out, district cenrtal is serious MQM territory, and they have a big party votebank here.
NA-254 Karachi Central II - Unfortunately I don't see Azizabad falling this time, MQM will retain this seat. There are some serious PTI pockets in this constituency though, and I think PTI will bag more votes than last time.
NA-255 Karachi Central III - This is probably one of the safest MQM seats. Liaquatabad and Nazimabad are lower middle class Muhajir neighbourhoods.
NA-256 Karachi Central IV - Another MQM leaning seat, though PTI will bag a good share of votes here. PTI won a PS seat from here last time.
Prediction:
MQM - 9
PTI - 5
PPP - 5
PSP - 2
Best case scenario for PTI:
MQM - 5
PTI - 8
PPP - 4
PSP - 2