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South Africa vs India | 2nd Test | Centurion | Jan 13-17, 2018 | Day 2 | Discussion Thread
- Thread starter RamLakhan
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Wasn't doing it consistently before but good to see.
Hope he doesn't play against us this winter - we all know we make debutant/young bowlers stars - Chris Woakes, Colin de Grandhomme, Dev Bishoo etc etc.
Varun
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Saw this coming.
We basically have like, 3.5 batsmen and then the tail. I may or may not be including Rohit Sharma in the tail.
We basically have like, 3.5 batsmen and then the tail. I may or may not be including Rohit Sharma in the tail.
And Phil Simmons. 10 overs, 8 maidens 3 runs and 4 wickets. 1992/93
Ab Fan
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Kohli doesnt miss 100 generally after getting into 40s-50s zone.
shah_1
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This innings of Kohli reminds of Sachin against Pakistan in Chennai. Lone Warrior
Slog
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Good innings by Kohli
I know the wicket hasn't got any major demons in it so you can't say Kohli has overcome his weaknesses but still it's a great effort against a quality attack.
Also he is losing wickets on the other end regularly so to keep it together deserves appreciation.
India is in the game cuz of it
I know the wicket hasn't got any major demons in it so you can't say Kohli has overcome his weaknesses but still it's a great effort against a quality attack.
Also he is losing wickets on the other end regularly so to keep it together deserves appreciation.
India is in the game cuz of it
Did sachin also screw his team's chances by selecting his buddies at expense of better player and drop catches?
Varun
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He's going at a good clip too. 79 (119) isn't slow by any means.
Varun
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Who would Sachin's buddies have been, hypothetically speaking?
Slog
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Yup
Game is moving fast.
However Ashwin won't get to exploit the breaking wicket as much because of that
Buffet
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2 more wickets will seal the game here. Get Vern bowling.
Include rohit sharma as 10 extra runs and playing with 10 players.
Buffet
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India is too far behind right now. Yah, most runs came from Kohli otherwise game would have been over by now. 170/5 looks much better than 120/5.
CricketAnalyst
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That's the interpretation of an average joe with no stats or cricket expertise or insight into net performances.
The fact is Kohli is batting excellently. A biased view held by you is that he indulged in nepotism.
Varun
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Just need Pandya and Ashwin to hang around tomorrow. Getting to 335 is a must.
Buffet
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Once Kohli is out, inning should fold quickly. Ball is reversing.
shah_1
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Radaba will be handful
sensible-indian-fan
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Varun
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Kohli has been taking a single off the first ball of the over for many many overs now. It's how most of the others have got out at the other end.
Buffet
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Vern is here. Get Kohli out and test is done here...
sensible-indian-fan
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Buffet
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It's not a hard pitch and Kohli shouldn't be refusing singles unless he is batting with bowlers.
sensible-indian-fan
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Almost.....
Outside edge for 4.
My goodness. Play off Philander.
Outside edge for 4.
My goodness. Play off Philander.
shariqnoor
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#WengerOut signs. LOL
sensible-indian-fan
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Philander played off...Yay.
shah_1
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Criminal not to have a second slip
sensible-indian-fan
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Phew. Day over.
Kohli and Pandya can resume tomorrow.
Kohli and Pandya can resume tomorrow.
sensible-indian-fan
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In what world is SA just 60?
They are one wicket away from victory (Kohli) cos after Ashwin, 3 genuine tail.
It's 80-20 SA.
But as we get near their first innings total, the odds will shift from 80-60.
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End of a great day - this game is on knife edge. If either side can reach within 35 of others after 1st innings, anyone's game. Tmro morning first hour is going to be extremely important - over night rested SAF pacers will bowl with old ball, then with 2nd ball either side of lunch. Kohli has to get a 150 here for a lead.
But IND tail is poor here - Shami, JB & IS are almost walking wicket.
But IND tail is poor here - Shami, JB & IS are almost walking wicket.
It is based on the hypothesis that Ashwin can bat as well. Secondly it shall remain 60/40 until we witness that Ashwin gets out cheaply.
Sidilicious
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India needs to bat last. So India need a minimum of a 50 run to bring parity to the equation. We are still 200 runs away from that, and have lost our top 5 batsmen. As Sif suggested, its 80:20. If Pandya, Kohli and Ashwin can get India to 335, then it will be 60:40.
Always thought tendulkar was a bit selfish but nepotism and bias isn't something i would accuse him of.
So you think all those things suggest ishant and sharma are better than bhuvneshwar and rahane
.
sensible-indian-fan
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Once Ashwin gets out with us below 200, then match is done bro.
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The hashtag for this game should be #VKvSA! Kohli standing tall as he takes his team to 183/5 at Stumps on Day 2, with India trailing South Africa by 152 runs in the 1st Test #SAvIND #Cricket
I would love to be proven wrong but i feel kholi will be gone in the first hour and we will fold with 40-50 runs of that handing SA a good 60-70 run lead and the match.
Its more VKvsIndvsSA.
And what if Proteas choke again against Ashwin in 3rd innings, somehow I feel this Proteas batting line up is not comfortable facing Ashwin at all. Assuming India will score 310. And Safferz get bowled out cheaply say 150 odd.
Could be another cracker 170-180 odd target.
you speak as if Kohli is a walking wicket
with Kohli looking good, in form Pandya and then Ashwin- even an average performance by the last 5 wickets should get India 80-90 runs tomorrow morning. If they bat well then I don't see why they can't take the lead
60-40 sounds reasonable
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INDIA returned some of the largesse that the Standard Bank Proteas had dished out to them on day one as the two battled for first innings superiority on day two of the second Sunfoil Freedom Test match at SuperSport Park on Sunday.
India’s key initial target was to remove the remaining four Proteas first innings wickets as quickly as possible when play resumed but they made life hard for themselves as they missed two chances offered by Kagiso Rabada and one by Faf du Plessis as the latter rallied the home side’s lower order to the extent that they put on 83 runs for the last four wickets, 66 of which were scored on the second morning as Du Plessis completed 17th career half-century (63 off 142 balls, 9 fours).
For good measure one of their key batsmen, Cheteshwar Pujara, was then run out by a brilliant direct hit from debutant Lungi Ngidi who only had one stump to aim at from a position on his knees.
The Proteas total of 335 was probably more than India wanted to concede from the overnight 269/6 and it became worth a lot more when the Indian top order with the exception of Virat Kohli crumbled as they reached the close on 183/5, still trailing by 152 runs on the first innings.
Kohli, scoring at a rate that no other batsman has managed to achieve in this match, played a real captain’s knock reaching stumps on 85 (130 balls, 8 fours) with his 21st Test century well in his sights.
The Proteas seamers did a magnificent job on a surface that gave them nothing with Morne Morkel getting the first breakthrough with a rare return catch that gave him his 50th Test wicket against India.
Kagiso Rabada put in a sustained spell that included the wicket of Rohit Sharma but nobody did better than Ngidi who bowled spells of four and five overs respectively of sustained pace, aggression and accuracy that earned him Parthiv Patel as his maiden Test wicket.
For good measure he joined the fast bowlers hall of fame of those who sent down a delivery in excess of 150km/h on the Test match stage.
Whichever way the rest of the match unfolds the Proteas will know they have unleashed yet another exciting fast bowling talent who also has the heart and the temperament for the job. When he gets on a traditional South African home pitch such as the one that is likely to await him at the Bidvest Wanderers Stadium in a week or so’s time, he is going to become a serious threat.
He troubled Kohli more than any of the other South African bowlers which is a testimony on its own, coming close to getting him leg before wicket on a couple of occasions and beating the outside edge as well.
Tomorrow’s first session is going to be critical as any kind of substantial lead for the Proteas is going to be worth gold with uneven bounce already coming into play.
India’s key initial target was to remove the remaining four Proteas first innings wickets as quickly as possible when play resumed but they made life hard for themselves as they missed two chances offered by Kagiso Rabada and one by Faf du Plessis as the latter rallied the home side’s lower order to the extent that they put on 83 runs for the last four wickets, 66 of which were scored on the second morning as Du Plessis completed 17th career half-century (63 off 142 balls, 9 fours).
For good measure one of their key batsmen, Cheteshwar Pujara, was then run out by a brilliant direct hit from debutant Lungi Ngidi who only had one stump to aim at from a position on his knees.
The Proteas total of 335 was probably more than India wanted to concede from the overnight 269/6 and it became worth a lot more when the Indian top order with the exception of Virat Kohli crumbled as they reached the close on 183/5, still trailing by 152 runs on the first innings.
Kohli, scoring at a rate that no other batsman has managed to achieve in this match, played a real captain’s knock reaching stumps on 85 (130 balls, 8 fours) with his 21st Test century well in his sights.
The Proteas seamers did a magnificent job on a surface that gave them nothing with Morne Morkel getting the first breakthrough with a rare return catch that gave him his 50th Test wicket against India.
Kagiso Rabada put in a sustained spell that included the wicket of Rohit Sharma but nobody did better than Ngidi who bowled spells of four and five overs respectively of sustained pace, aggression and accuracy that earned him Parthiv Patel as his maiden Test wicket.
For good measure he joined the fast bowlers hall of fame of those who sent down a delivery in excess of 150km/h on the Test match stage.
Whichever way the rest of the match unfolds the Proteas will know they have unleashed yet another exciting fast bowling talent who also has the heart and the temperament for the job. When he gets on a traditional South African home pitch such as the one that is likely to await him at the Bidvest Wanderers Stadium in a week or so’s time, he is going to become a serious threat.
He troubled Kohli more than any of the other South African bowlers which is a testimony on its own, coming close to getting him leg before wicket on a couple of occasions and beating the outside edge as well.
Tomorrow’s first session is going to be critical as any kind of substantial lead for the Proteas is going to be worth gold with uneven bounce already coming into play.
If India gets to 300, that itself will be a huge accomplishment.
Doesn't seem likely at this time.
Justcrazy
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The match is well in balance , SA will struggle against Ashwin , I see a 5 fer for him. SA need to get as big lead as possible , and then look to make sure Ashwin does not get on top of them.
CricketAnalyst
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So you think all those things suggest ishant and sharma are better than bhuvneshwar and rahane
No actually I think the fact that Rahane hasn't been able to buy a run for the last year and a half is why I'd prefer almost any batsman in India to him.
And as for Bhuvaneshwar, his bowling while excellent is specific to the types of conditions that are absolutely absent here.
And whether you agree or not, it's just staggering that when you disagree with the captain and team management of India it doesn't even enter your head, that maybe he is not biased but has a disagreement with you (let alone whether he is right or wrong).
Even I disagree with lots of decisions (and I actually am quite expert with stats) but even I don't just fling around accusations about people picking their buddies with 0 evidence or logic. And not sure there's any reason to believe Kohli dislikes Rahul or Bhuvi or any of the others who missed out.
Justcrazy
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They can , If lower order can stay on with Kohli.
sensible-indian-fan
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If India score 310, we are right back in the game. I would take that score right now if offered.
The point was about odds right now.
You mentioned SA odds will be 80-20 if Ashwin gets out.
I am saying if Ashwin gets out below 200, match is done.
sensible-indian-fan
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I never said Kohli is a walking wicket.
If Kohli and Pandya get us through the tough part, we will be back in the game.
60-40 odds for current situation is optimistic. We are 150 runs behind.
It's not about what could happen. It's about looking at data stripping out emotions or gut feel.
Slog
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Is Rohit batting too low in this combination?
Considering #5 is your last main pure batsman and should be expected to have the game to take the innings along and have lower order bat around him, Rohit doesn't seem at all capable of fulfilling all these responsibilities even in a dream scenario
Considering #5 is your last main pure batsman and should be expected to have the game to take the innings along and have lower order bat around him, Rohit doesn't seem at all capable of fulfilling all these responsibilities even in a dream scenario
sensible-indian-fan
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Let's hope it doesn't happen.
CricketAnalyst
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Ok.
So according to you it's literally 100% that South Africa win if Kohli is out quickly?
Like you would bet your life, fortune, sell your house and find a bookie and bet?
You should if that's what you think.
If not revise to some realistic number.
Markets have it as 66% SA. The reason is because when people actually have an incentive to get things right they add a bit more nuance.
Let's look at this bit by bit. 152 is not an enormous number with 5 wickets left. Pandya and Kohli are very dangerous batsmen, and Kohli hasn't given a single chance, so there's no real reason to suppose he will get out immediately. The pitch isn't very (at all) responsive to pace and their spinner Maharaj isn't good enough to threaten our batsmen. South Africa won't dare to bowl him while Pandya is batting. Ashwin yet to come is a very decent batsman, especially on a flattish surface like this.
India are 183/5 because three wickets were gifted to South Africa (one by Pujara so pseudo fans here won't talk about how dumb that was). If Pandya and Kohli bat for an hour tomorrow, India will pull level.
This pitch doesn't favour SA at all, because India has a world-class spinner to exploit turn and SA does not.
Where from all of this do you get an 80% chance of SA that becomes 100% after Kohli is out?
Bewal Express
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Ind will not a better chance against the Saffers than on this wicket. Ashwin couldnt have designed a better wicket outside Ind and if they hold their nerve they should win.
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You are forgetting we will bat last here , Maharaj will make an impact in the last innings . Indias innings can easily fold for under 250 giving SA a decent lead , I dont rate the SA batting much but all they will need is give us a 250+ run target . With onlly 5 batsmen ( one of them is Rohit lol ) chasing 250 wont be easy , your tail never wags in a test match chase . So in likelyhood we will again need Virat to score a 100 more in second innings to win this match . SA are easy favs here .
jusarrived
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Too high . He should be batting below Parthiv , Pandya and Ashwin .
Chrish
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Top knock from Kohli.. Now basically needs to double it 
If he picks any one other than his mate I would not have said that add to that kohli seems to like yes men who don't challenge him much as we saw with kumble's ouster and shastri's appointment, the fact that he and the so called team management has been over eager always to pick Sharma yet seem to nitpick and try to drop players who aren't really his best mates at and not considered as hip as him.
CricketAnalyst
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I'd rate the disadvantage of batting last equal to the advantage of having a world-class spinner like Ashwin vs Maharaj who just hasn't been effective despite better conditions. It won't be easy for SA to face Ashwin on a track that is now properly turning. I don't think it would be a 250 run chase.
And while our batting might fold, nothing about the way Virat has batted or even Pandya's play suggests a collapse is imminent.
More like too high his ideal batting position is coming in at 10 wickets or more down
sensible-indian-fan
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Ok fine.
I am not well versed in how markets determines numbers but I would assume they account for everything. Even crazy scenarios and then calculate percentages.
The people who bet on market are not throwing in their entire life savings too. In fact, sometimes, it would be better to gamble on an not so obvious (but not totally impossible) occurrence with money you can lose, so that you can experience crazy gains.
Now put those gamblers to invest EVERYTHING they got and let's see how many are ready to play ball accepting THOSE percentages.
In real life, we don't go for robotic calculations. We go for likely scenarios.
And in this case, India having 40% chance to win the game is really optimistic and I can bet vast majority of cricket fans won't take that bet if they have to invest their life savings.
Why? Lots of reasons which stats may not include:
This is overseas test. India has never won a series here. We are behind. Philander threat. Batting last so Maharaj threat. Feeling of overwhelm. Inexperience.
So many factor which human mind would take into account when calculating likeliness of a scenario.
Tom, first 5 overs, one great ball to Kohli can change everything. Ash could follow him within 15 runs. When that happens, it doesn't matter if on PAPER, Pandya can score 100 runs smashing around. People would lose hope.
Hence odds we calculate will always be different from market odds.
So apples to oranges comparison.
The data suggests Kohli is a world class batsmen who looked near flawless today and is well set
The data also suggest that that Pandya is coming off a 93 in the last match against the same opposition and has another century in his last 3 innings
The data also shows that Ashwin scored 37 in his last innings
The data also shows that Shami has a test 50
I don't see how you can look at all that data and say that India can't score another 100-120 or so runs
Need not be pessimistic here, you need to strip out your emotions and gut feel
sensible-indian-fan
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Omg.
Never mind.
You are not taking into account probability.
I am not saying India will lose. In fact, I will remain optimistic. But won't justify it like this.
Sidilicious
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So if Bhuvi's bowling is specific to conditions, what has Rohit done in Test matches abroad to be playing outside of India?
Then you might say, that Rohit has not been given a chance outside of India in recent times. My counter argument would be that why not offer the same chance to Bhuvi.
Rahane in a test match, against tough opposition, away from home is a proven run scorer and has shown it on 4 away tours. On the other hand, Rohit has done Jack. If he fails again in the 2nd innings, and Kohli still picks Rohit, it would be crystal clear that there is more than just tailunt at play.
Sidilicious
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When analysing the situation of the batting team, you should assume that 2 more wickets may fall at the current score and then analyse the situation. India is 182/5. ITs not a great situation. It takes 2 deliveries, to get to 182/7, which is match over.
Navdeep Srivastava
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Kohli after score 30 odd runs look so good, runs for single . Scored only 8 tours today and still strike rate is 65.
Whether he scores 100 or not but this is how you play. Pujara and Vijay should learn from him. They always play dot after dot and end up loosing their wicket.
Whether he scores 100 or not but this is how you play. Pujara and Vijay should learn from him. They always play dot after dot and end up loosing their wicket.
CricketAnalyst
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I feel you are ignoring probability slightly and only looking at worse case scenarios.
You said in the other post we are away, but it's pretty subcontinental conditions, flat for fast bowlers and we are behind by 150 runs with 5 left. It's a bad position, but not apocalyptic. If this was Newlands your assessment would be right. But it isn't. Most of the Indians gave their wickets away which isn't likely to happen.
India has 3 good batsmen (one world-class) yet to be dismissed and I don't think it's improbable or unrealistic to suggest that they would on average score 120-130 or so with their last 5 wickets. Obviously they could be out for 50. Or they could get 250 if these two get set and score big. There's a whole range of possibilities, but being dismissed for less than 60 would be on the extreme end of that range.
CricketAnalyst
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You should consider it's possible but also you have to think how likely it is.
There's a reason 100/0 is better than 100/2 and that's because most often those two wickets don't fall till many runs are added.
And no 183/7 wouldn't be match over. That's not how cricket works. Especially not Test Cricket. I could show you 7 or 8 incredibly improbable reversals just in the last 20 tests or so.
CricketAnalyst
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Believe it or not, my objection is to Rahane playing, and not so much an insistence on Rohit playing. Rahane's recent record is abysmal. You have to realize this echo-chamber of Rahane support is based on assumption that performances from two years or more back will be replicated. Whereas in real life he can't buy a run against pacers or spinners in even Indian conditions, so I don't see why suddenly he would score against better fast bowling in tougher conditions.
sensible-indian-fan
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Not worse case scenario. Just stating odds as they are right now. SA are better placed than 60-40 (maybe 80-20 or atleast 70-30).
A good session will change up the odds real fast.
You are ignoring the psychological factor. It may be non-Saffer pitch with bounce but in players' minds it is SA pitch. Nothing can change that. There are tons of instances when psychological factors play a role in cricket.
3 batsmen (including 2 mid 30s averaging lower order bats) against 5 good bowlers on an away turf in a pressure cooker situation will not yield 120-130 runs on average.
They could.
But that doesn't equate to they would.
That's all I am saying.
I am hopeful cos I know "they could".
I am not sure cos I don't know whether "they would".
Sidilicious
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When doing any form of analysis, its unrealistic to expect the last 5 wickets to score 80% of the runs scored by the first 5 wickets. Its not impossible, but has a low probability. Even with a strong tail, the expected number is around 60%. Without Bhuvi, that number is more like 40-50%. So, given the situation right now, it is more likely that one would expect India to score 230-260, than 300
sensible-indian-fan
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Exactly.
Another thing is...if we were 400-5 right now, the odds of the SAME 3 players scoring 130 runs more increases a LOT.
Situation and psychological factors play a big role.
Sidilicious
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Fair enough.
But shouldn't the same logic be extended to Bhuvi? If Rahane is not played due to lack of form, shouldn't Bhuvi have played given that he is in form?
Bringing in Ishant was fine. But why not drop Bumrah or Shami?
The bigger problem I have with Kohli is that he never seems to learn his lesson. He tends to choose players based on "talent" or "intent". Did the same with Pujara, and Pujara was the one who came to India's rescue in SL.
CricketAnalyst
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Is it in our players minds or your mind? This entire series I've seen a striking disconnect between how close the match is on the field and how badly Indian fans think we're getting crushed...
CricketAnalyst
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That's not how you calculate it.
If top order underperforms it doesn't mean tail also is likely to underperform. And reverse also with overperformance. If our top 5 were expected to get only 180 you'd be right, but we have scored less than likely.
Want to look at probability?
of the 50% of Indian wickets that have fallen - it includes only 1 of their 4 highest scorers in the series
of the 50% of the reamaning wickets - they have 3 of their 4 highest series run scorers
there is simply no reason for you to suggest that anything below 100 runs is the likely scenario (based on data and probability )
sensible-indian-fan
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Dude your sample set is this one series. Insufficient sample set. It doesn't work like that.
Anyways Bhai, let's agree to disagree.
This convo is going nowhere.
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