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Forex and Gold/Silver bullion Trading

Dealing in Pounds and a number with not too many zeros after it.
 
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The Keynesian idea of wealth creation is the one that is blowing up right in the face of most Western societies!

Gold and silver are just warming up to the mother of all bull runs.
 
Namak_Halaal said:
To put into perspect, a bottle of Coke in the US cost 10c in the 1920s. Today it costs $1.50. The Coke, The bottle, the glass, the label are the same, so what's changed?
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Cost of production changed, including what you need to pay the workers producing the coke.

Something that cost 10c a 100 years ago and costs $1.50 today, that's an annual rate of inflation of 2.7%.

Some inflation is good for the economy. See Mundell-Tobin effect.
 
Gold and Silver Paint A Picture

By Nicholas Santiago Feb 14, 2011, 10: 48 AM Author's Website

Gold and silver are both trading higher today despite the U.S. Dollar Index trading in positive territory. Today, there is a lot of uncertainty developing in the Middle East. Protests and riots are now beginning to develop in various parts of that region. Egypt is still experiencing large numbers of protesters despite the removal of Hosni Mubarak. Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, are all beginning to face protests from their citizens creating further turmoil in the region.

Europe has not been mentioned much in the media today, however, the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE:FXE) is trading lower today by 0.67 cents to $134.32 a share. When the Euro currency trades lower it will usually indicate that the U.S. Dollar Index is trading higher today. Last week the European Central Bank had to purchase Portuguese bonds in order to keep the rising yields contained. Traders should expect more of this type of action by the ECB in the coming weeks. These are all events that can all cause gold and silver to rise in the near term.

Today the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) is trading higher by 0.86 cents to $133.17 a share.
The popular iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) is trading higher by 0.69 cents to $29.90 a share.

These precious metals will usually increase when there is conflict in the world or a devaluing of fiat money by central banks.
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http://wallstreetpit.com/62004-gold-and-silver-paint-a-picture
 
Spare a thought for India's economy:

India's inflation accelerates to 8.9% in March : Click Here


Spare another thought for China's economy:

China's economy expands 9.7% as inflation accelerates : Click Here


Gold & Silver thrive on inflation.
 
NH in the other thread you mentioned about some SB technqiues apart from pair and box. Could you give me a quick run down of them please?
 
Hari Sombar said:
Are you likely to make more money from Forex trading then stocks ?
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Put it simply... No

Amateurs can get away with doing shares and get lucky, whereas you have to be on top of your game to make serious money with Forex.... The forex market is very liquid and very sensitive to multitude of news. It will test your nerve and emotions in ways you probably never experienced before.

Its all down to what strategy you employ and how much loss to gain ratio you tolerate.... The crucial aspect is that you try out a strategy or number of number strategies on dummy accounts before putting doing actual money.

NH has discussed boxed trading...
 
Eagle_Eye said:
Put it simply... No

Amateurs can get away with doing shares and get lucky, whereas you have to be on top of your game to make serious money with Forex.... The forex market is very liquid and very sensitive to multitude of news. It will test your nerve and emotions in ways you probably never experienced before.

Its all down to what strategy you employ and how much loss to gain ratio you tolerate.... The crucial aspect is that you try out a strategy or number of number strategies on dummy accounts before putting doing actual money.

NH has discussed boxed trading...
Click to expand...


i see, thanks for that
 
DeadlyVenom said:
NH in the other thread you mentioned about some SB technqiues apart from pair and box. Could you give me a quick run down of them please?
Click to expand...

Scalping technique
Swing technqiue
Position technqiue
Divergence technqiue
Time-Slot technqiue
Mechanical technique
Box technique
Pair technique

The ones I have mentioned above work best with FX.

Remember, technique is different to a system where a system is built around a set of techniques, moreover, not every technique is applicable 24hrs of the day nor is a system 100% succesful; you have to analyse the situation then apply the technique you believe is most app. More importantly, for any strategy/system you develop yourself, you MUST include an exit strategy - this is vital!

To sum up

1. Risk Management
2. Money Management
3. Emotional Management
4. System Management
5. The Edge


I love volatility on a market, that's where the profit is, which is why I love FX, oh and the fact you can hedge your life on FX makes it all that appealing for me.

Remember, what works for me may not work for you.

Golden rule : Keep it simple.
 
Hari Sombar said:
Are you likely to make more money from Forex trading then stocks ?
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Totally depends on the trader. I personally believe there's less research required with FX compared to shares.

My friends buy/sell actual shares, they profit big, simple rule buy low sell high, but the thing is they only profit when the market moves up. When markets tank, they're sitting on a loss. Some add to a losing position (no no no!), while others may sit on their position or close out completely. I've seen folks who sell their shares when in £50 loss, conversly, sell when in £50 profit. These guys are not suited for trading at all.

FX traders can profit both up and down, but again, it's about what suits an individual in terms of finance and emotion. FX is not for the faint hearted but the risk vs. rewards are incredible. You can easily clock 400% returns on a position in a minute, hour, day, week, even months, but you got to have the sand for FX. No balls, no reward.

In my view, keeping it simple is the key whether it's shares or FX.
 
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Namak_Halaal said:
Totally depends on the trader. I personally believe there's less research required with FX compared to shares.

My friends buy/sell actual shares, they profit big, simple rule buy low sell high, but the thing is they only profit when the market moves up. When markets tank, they're sitting on a loss. Some add to a losing position (no no no!), while others may sit on their position or close out completely. I've seen folks who sell their shares when in £50 loss, conversly, sell when in £50 profit. These guys are not suited for trading at all.

FX traders can profit both up and down, but again, it's about what suits an individual in terms of finance and emotion. FX is not for the faint hearted but the risk vs. rewards are incredible. You can easily clock 400% returns on a position in a minute, hour, day, week, even months, but you got to have the sand for FX. No balls, no reward.

In my view, keeping it simple is the key whether it's shares or FX.
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that in essence the difference between investment and trading.

investment is about making long term judgement and ignoring the market in the mean time, which requries a lot of digging around in boring financial information to form an opinion. Good investors tend to be contrarian, buy low, sell high types. this also includes averaging down positions, but this should be left to very good investors.

this approach is a lot easier to say then to put into practise as most people read this and buy what appears to be the cheapest shares in a rubbish company or one which paid an attractive dividend last year and lose money. The art of investment is not spotting the cheapest share, but spotting the greatest value.

nh has already talked about trading so dont think that needs to be talked psychology.

imo both disciplines require solid balls.

Riding a short term loss is acceptable to an investor, as their time frame is a year or more. Traders cut out very quit and average up and add to winning positions.

Applying the psychology of trading to investing, or vice verse is a guaranteed path to lose money fast.

but since this thread is about trading, the investment psychology should not be applied to what is being written about in here.

plus bro i think every solid trader or investor loves volatility, because thats where you get the real oppertunities.
 
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ElRaja said:
The art of investment is not spotting the cheapest share, but spotting the greatest value.
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Hammer, to the nail, to the head. Spot on! Illustrating the difference between Price and Value.

Also I think the other major difference between an Investor and Trader is that an Investor can only profit in one direction (up), where as a Trader can profit in both directions (up & down).
 
Namak_Halaal said:
Hammer, to the nail, to the head. Spot on! Illustrating the difference between Price and Value.

Also I think the other major difference between an Investor and Trader is that an Investor can only profit in one direction (up), where as a Trader can profit in both directions (up & down).
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that is very true, leken vaise i find it hard enough to find things i am confident will give me returns, if i start looking for things i think will go down, infomration overload ho jai. :danish

im very defensive by nature when it comes to money, and as we have discussed the destructive nature of currency value means in the long run you load the dice in your favour if u are bullish.
 
ElRaja said:
that is very true, leken vaise i find it hard enough to find things i am confident will give me returns, if i start looking for things i think will go down, infomration overload ho jai. :danish

im very defensive by nature when it comes to money, and as we have discussed the destructive nature of currency value means in the long run you load the dice in your favour if u are bullish.
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You can find sollace in the fact that Shares can, will, and have hit zero, while commodities do not; that's the difference between paper and hard assets. Also, it's easier to make cash on the way down because it's easier to induce fear than hope!

Mere bhai, buy Gold and Silver and enjoy life!
 
Euro Drops Most Since November on Concern Region's Debt Crisis Worsening - Click Here

The euro fell the most since November against the yen and dropped from a 15-month high versus the dollar on concern a bailout for Greece may fail to prevent the first default by a country in the 17-nation currency region.
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Wow, can't believe I missed this thread. A lot of what NH is talking about in terms of the economy I agree and been reading about myself. Unfortunately, I am not well versed in FX or bullion market but thank goodness someone is so I can ask some questions!

At this moment, I have very little to invest with and just been investing in stocks. I have earned a 36% return since September and yet to have a losing trade (i think lowest has been 10%). I pretty much trade in mining stocks but I am looking to get out by June once QE2 is finished (I am predicting a horrid summer for equity markets before they relaunch QE3).

Anyways, some questions:
1) I want to get into buying some gold and silver bullion. Is there any place you recommend I get it online? Or better to get it locally? Is there things I should be looking for (I understand best to buy small quantities) or do you have some guide I can read?

2) What's your view on Islamic Finance? I taken courses on options and understand them well enough to create hedges but truth be told, from my understanding because they are dependent on a future event, there is excessive risk and thus not permitted by modern scholars. That is why I avoid trading things like futures (cause you can't own something that does not exist yet), or shorting stocks (I really would like to do this because with the impending QE-end, there is a lot to be made but again you can't sell something you don't own). Just like to hear other peoples view on this?
 
Namak_Halaal said:
Euro Drops Most Since November on Concern Region's Debt Crisis Worsening - Click Here
Click to expand...

I don't think Greece is going to make it. I think once they fall, we will see shortly see Ireland and Portugal go down. I think Spain cannot avoid also getting assistance.

However, prior to the collapse of the US dollar and rise of gold...I think we need to see the collapse/break-up of the Euro (for Gold to explode) cause if the US dollar goes, then I see a rush to the Euro "as the new safe-haven" till it collapses and then people rush to Gold. However, if Euro collapses first then all that is left between Gold's rise is the US dollar.

Maybe an off chance, China sells it reserves and lets it currency appreciate naturally which then has a chance to become the new safe haven but that looks doubtful with their policy. Especially once things go south down there because of their overbuilding and they will probably see the only way to growth is to be led by trade exports.

My apologies, I got very sidetracked here.
 
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Amir said:
1) I want to get into buying some gold and silver bullion. Is there any place you recommend I get it online? Or better to get it locally? Is there things I should be looking for (I understand best to buy small quantities) or do you have some guide I can read?
Click to expand...


Hey dude. Sorry for late response!

I would first recommend you read up on the following sites first:

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm
http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/

The first link is very important as it explain who LMBA are (London Bullion Merchant Association). If you are going to Buy Gold then you MUST buy from an approved LMBA dealer (all listed with the links above)

Websites that I’d recommend are:

www.coininvestdirect.com
www.atsbullion.com

I’ve tried and tested both of them and they are sound. ATS actually allow you to buy and sell over the counter. Also note, that you can sell bars to different LMBA merchants from different suppliers (this is the benefit of buying from a LMBA dealer)

As for quantity, I would recommend 250g bars at a minimum. Reason being is the premiums on these bars are inversely proportional to the weight. The more you buy the less premium you pay (don’t go for smaller bars as you’d have to hold them longer before you profit).



Amir said:
2) What's your view on Islamic Finance? I taken courses on options and understand them well enough to create hedges but truth be told, from my understanding because they are dependent on a future event, there is excessive risk and thus not permitted by modern scholars. That is why I avoid trading things like futures (cause you can't own something that does not exist yet), or shorting stocks (I really would like to do this because with the impending QE-end, there is a lot to be made but again you can't sell something you don't own). Just like to hear other peoples view on this?
Click to expand...

I'm not versed on Islamic fiance at all, but I do pay Zakaat on my bullion. Sorry!
 
Amir said:
I don't think Greece is going to make it. I think once they fall, we will see shortly see Ireland and Portugal go down. I think Spain cannot avoid also getting assistance.

However, prior to the collapse of the US dollar and rise of gold...I think we need to see the collapse/break-up of the Euro (for Gold to explode) cause if the US dollar goes, then I see a rush to the Euro "as the new safe-haven" till it collapses and then people rush to Gold. However, if Euro collapses first then all that is left between Gold's rise is the US dollar.

Maybe an off chance, China sells it reserves and lets it currency appreciate naturally which then has a chance to become the new safe haven but that looks doubtful with their policy. Especially once things go south down there because of their overbuilding and they will probably see the only way to growth is to be led by trade exports.
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EUR taking a pummelling at the moment, down almost 200 pips.

I don't think the Finnish elections helped as the Fins oppose any form of EUR bailout.

China is in a commanding position, they hold in excess of $2 Trillion in the form of currency and bonds. If China demand their loans from USA, $ will collapse. But China is smart, they know that the $ they are holding are close to worthless and as a result they are using the Greenback to buy mining compnaies and commodities.

In my view Eastern economies are abandoning the $, slowly but surley. Eastern economies are already using currency that is backed by Gold and Silver (Malaysia as an example)

I'm pretty certain after QE3, we will see QE4, 5, 6 and so on. There's no way USA are getting out of this mess by reigning in the defict or even interest rates, devaluing the $ is the only option, or bankruptcy.
 
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Holy crap - S&P cut US debt rating!

Gold and Silver heading into orbit - have just set new all time highs!

$ and stocks tanking before US open!
 
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Text of S&P US Downgrade

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its ‘AAA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s also said that it revised its outlook on the long-term rating of the U.S. sovereign to negative from stable.

Our ratings on the U.S. rest on its high-income, highly diversified, and flexible economy. It is backed by a strong track record of prudent and credible monetary policy, evidenced to us by its ability to support growth while containing inflationary pressures. The ratings also reflect our view of the unique advantages stemming from the dollar’s preeminent place among world currencies.

“Although we believe these strengths currently outweigh what we consider to be the U.S.’s meaningful economic and fiscal risks and large external debtor position, we now believe that they might not fully offset the credit risks over the next two years at the ‘AAA’ level,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Nikola G. Swann.

“More than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S. policymakers have still not agreed on how to reverse recent fiscal deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures,” Mr. Swann added.

In 2003-2008, the U.S.’s general (total) government deficit fluctuated between 2% and 5% of GDP. Already noticeably larger than that of most ‘AAA’ rated sovereigns, it ballooned to more than 11% in 2009 and has yet to recover.

On April 13, President Barack Obama laid out his Administration’s medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, aimed at reducing the cumulative unified federal deficit by US$4 trillion in 12 years or less. A key component of the Administration’s strategy is to work with Congressional leaders over the next two months to develop a commonly agreed upon program to reach this target. The President’s proposals envision reducing the deficit via both spending cuts and revenue increases.

Key members in the U.S. House of Representatives have also advocated fiscal tightening of a similar magnitude, US$4.4 trillion, during the coming 10 years, but via different methods. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan seeks to balance the federal budget by 2040, in part by cutting non-defense spending. The plan also includes significantly reducing the scope of Medicare and Medicaid, while bringing top individual and corporate tax rates lower than those under the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.

We view President Obama’s and Congressman Ryan’s proposals as the starting point of a process aimed at broader engagement, which could result in substantial and lasting U.S. government fiscal consolidation. That said, we see the path to agreement as challenging because the gap between the parties remains wide. We believe there is a significant risk that Congressional negotiations could result in no agreement on a medium-term fiscal strategy until after the fall 2012 Congressional and Presidential elections. If so, the first budget proposal that could include related measures would be Budget 2014 (for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, 2013), and we believe a delay beyond that time is possible.

Standard & Poor’s takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures the Congress and the Administration might conclude are appropriate.

But for any plan to be credible, we believe that it would need to secure support from a cross-section of leaders in both political parties. If U.S. policymakers do agree on a fiscal consolidation strategy, we believe the experience of other countries highlights that implementation could take time. It could also generate significant political controversy, not just within Congress or between Congress and the Administration, but throughout the country. We therefore think that, assuming an agreement between Congress and the President, there is a reasonable chance that it would still take a number of years before the government reaches a fiscal position that stabilizes its debt burden. In addition, even if such measures are eventually put in place, the initiating policymakers or subsequently elected ones could decide to at least partially reverse fiscal consolidation.

In our baseline macroeconomic scenario of near 3% annual real growth, we expect the general government deficit to decline gradually but remain slightly higher than 6% of GDP in 2013. As a result, net general government debt would reach 84% of GDP by 2013. In our macroeconomic forecast’s optimistic scenario (assuming near 4% annual real growth), the fiscal deficit would fall to 4.6% of GDP by 2013, but the U.S.’s net general government debt would still rise to almost 80% of GDP by 2013. In our pessimistic scenario (a mild, one-year double-dip recession in 2012), the deficit would be 9.1%, while net debt would surpass 90% by 2013. Even in our optimistic scenario, we believe the U.S.’s fiscal profile would be less robust than those of other ‘AAA’ rated sovereigns by 2013. (For all of the assumptions underpinning our three forecast scenarios, see “U.S. Risks To The Forecast: Oil We Have to Fear Is...,” March 15, 2011, RatingsDirect.

“Our negative outlook on our rating on the U.S. sovereign signals that we believe there is at least a one-in-three likelihood that we could lower our long-term rating on the U.S. within two years,” Mr. Swann said. “The outlook reflects our view of the increased risk that the political negotiations over when and how to address both the medium- and long-term fiscal challenges will persist until at least after national elections in 2012.”

Some compromise that achieves agreement on a comprehensive budgetary consolidation program--containing deficit-reduction measures in amounts near those recently proposed, and combined with meaningful steps toward implementation by 2013--is our baseline assumption and could lead us to revise the outlook back to stable. Alternatively, the lack of such an agreement or a significant further fiscal deterioration for any reason could lead us to lower the rating
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Holy smokes NH you are one of the most intelligent people in this regard that I've ever met/heard from.

Say I win the lottery and get 50G's, invest it all in gold and see money double, treble, quadruple in the space of a few years?!

Seems difficult to keep up to be honest, I see myself as quick to pick up new concepts but the FX market/hedging papers and websites I've read seem to confuse me more and more.
 
Poison said:
Holy smokes NH you are one of the most intelligent people in this regard that I've ever met/heard from.

Say I win the lottery and get 50G's, invest it all in gold and see money double, treble, quadruple in the space of a few years?!

Seems difficult to keep up to be honest, I see myself as quick to pick up new concepts but the FX market/hedging papers and websites I've read seem to confuse me more and more.
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When you buy Gold and Silver you are not strictly buying an investment but security & insurance against currency collapse. Above all, Gold and Silver will preserve your wealth.

Whether Gold will double. triple etc, well that depends on a] the state of the $, and b] which currency you purchase your Gold/Silver Bullion in. Personally I think Gold will hit $5000/oz (at the moment it's 1495) and Silver $150/oz (at the moment 42.91).

You should also setup a demo account and give FX (or any other form of trading a go).

Again just to stress a point, just because FX suits me it doesn't mean it'll suit everyone else.
 
Namak_Halaal said:
Holy crap - S&P cut US debt rating!

Gold and Silver heading into orbit - have just set new all time highs!

$ and stocks tanking before US open!
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that really got me interested, will have to seriously think about putting some gold in my portfolio.

i know you dont hold much interest in ta and charting but imo the liklihood of gold going below $1400 a tr oz even in extremem case short term volatility is very low, what do you think about this?
 
ElRaja said:
that really got me interested, will have to seriously think about putting some gold in my portfolio.

i know you dont hold much interest in ta and charting but imo the liklihood of gold going below $1400 a tr oz even in extremem case short term volatility is very low, what do you think about this?
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There are key government support levels in Gold. For example, India bought a shed load of Gold at 1050, China at 1125. Therefore I do not see these levels being breached. Though sub 1400 is a possibility (short term) due to profit taking but in my view when Gold drops 50pts, it's time to rebuy as governments will not stop printing currency.

You must remember that it is not Gold that's in a bubble, but the currencies measured against Gold are in a bubble. I do not see any respite for the $ - there's no way USA can pay off $44 TRILLION of debt.

Gold is about to break the 1500 mark, just 2.8 points to go! While the DJIA is down 200 points today.

Spare a thought for China who hold $2 Trillion in cash reserves, their holdings are devaluing by the minute, meaning tomorrow will be another record breaking day for Gold (and Silver).
 
Namak_Halaal said:
There are key government support levels in Gold. For example, India bought a shed load of Gold at 1050, China at 1125. Therefore I do not see these levels being breached. Though sub 1400 is a possibility (short term) due to profit taking but in my view when Gold drops 50pts, it's time to rebuy as governments will not stop printing currency.

You must remember that it is not Gold that's in a bubble, but the currencies measured against Gold are in a bubble. I do not see any respite for the $ - there's no way USA can pay off $44 TRILLION of debt.

Gold is about to break the 1500 mark, just 2.8 points to go! While the DJIA is down 200 points today.

Spare a thought for China who hold $2 Trillion in cash reserves, their holdings are devaluing by the minute, meaning tomorrow will be another record breaking day for Gold (and Silver).
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top man nh, thx for that, will defo keep that in mind.

would you recomend any books that could help me understand the price action of gold, and preferably other commodities better?

as i have said before i consistently shy away from investing/trading in gold as i feel my knowledge too limited.

please dont take this the wrong way, i have a lot of respect for your views as your clearly know a lot, its just that as a general rule i dont want to get into the habbit of trading off of other peoples views.
 
The yield on two-year Greek government bonds hits 20%; default is imminent.
 
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ElRaja said:
top man nh, thx for that, will defo keep that in mind.

would you recomend any books that could help me understand the price action of gold, and preferably other commodities better?

as i have said before i consistently shy away from investing/trading in gold as i feel my knowledge too limited.

please dont take this the wrong way, i have a lot of respect for your views as your clearly know a lot, its just that as a general rule i dont want to get into the habbit of trading off of other peoples views.
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Naah it's ok doost, I'm not taking anything in the wrong way.

I tend not to buy many books, and in my view the best way to understand Gold price action is to understand the currency markets.

Though having said this, I did buy a book on Gold and the obsession humanity has with it - it's a belter of a read and very informative.

The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession by Peter L. Bernstein

Sorry! Just not into books that much!
 
what do you think of just buying gold bullion blocks or coin and accumulating over long term? Where would you recommend to buy from been looking at Pert Mint? Is there value in collecting themed coins e.g. right now royal wedding gold coin priced @ $3,250. Obviously not looking for short term gain but over a period of say 7 - 10 years keep accumulating coins and blocks. What do you think? Or for that purpose better value else where?
 
raff said:
what do you think of just buying gold bullion blocks or coin and accumulating over long term? Where would you recommend to buy from been looking at Pert Mint? Is there value in collecting themed coins e.g. right now royal wedding gold coin priced @ $3,250. Obviously not looking for short term gain but over a period of say 7 - 10 years keep accumulating coins and blocks. What do you think? Or for that purpose better value else where?
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Are you based in the UK?

I would suggest buying Bullion only, .9999 purity.

Coins are a great investment too as certain types of Gold coins are exempt from Capital Gains Tax (Kruggers, Sovereigns, Britannias) – reason for this is that these coin are considered a legal tender given the Queen’s face is on the coin.

However, with coins, the premiums can vary, so you may have to hold on to Gold coins longer than you would compared to a Kilo Gold Bullion.
 
NH any other sites you recommend for SB. I like CMC markets but not gekko so much. Couldn't register for igindex :(
 
In your opinion is a normal stop loss sufficient or is it better to pay for guarunteed stop loss?
 
DeadlyVenom said:
In your opinion is a normal stop loss sufficient or is it better to pay for guarunteed stop loss?
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The best example I can provide is a real life experience with a colleague of mine. He was long on a share at £100/point. his position was in profit at £25000+ (after the position has roled over for 2 years). Then on a Sunday, news broke out that the company he had opened a position with went into bankruptcy. on monday morning the share dropped to zero, he ended up owing £65000 to IG.

The point is that he failed to manage his risk because he opened a position with a normal stop. He's still paying off the £65000 he owes.

Always manage your risk, thus I would always favour guaranteed stops.
 
Eagle_Eye said:
DV - In any leveraged trading, you MUST have a stop order.
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Yeah just wasn't sure about paying extra for a guarunteed one rather than a normal one. NH example shows its better to be safe than sorry.

EE have you tried any FX strategies out?
 
Namak_Halaal said:
Are you based in the UK?

I would suggest buying Bullion only, .9999 purity.

Coins are a great investment too as certain types of Gold coins are exempt from Capital Gains Tax (Kruggers, Sovereigns, Britannias) – reason for this is that these coin are considered a legal tender given the Queen’s face is on the coin.

However, with coins, the premiums can vary, so you may have to hold on to Gold coins longer than you would compared to a Kilo Gold Bullion.
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Based in Australia, I had a look on Captial Gains here and its taxable. There is no GST on gold but profits are taxed. But i doubt i will be selling it in the short term. I was thinking of accumulating Gold over a period of say 2-3 yrs. Not buying in one lump sum as i dont have the capital now, say every 3 months buy an oz or 50g as much as i can afford depending on savings?. Trading on the market seems too difficult and time consuming.

Also had a look there is minted and Cast. which ones are recommended? I think minted have a higher premium attached to them.
 
Namak_Halaal said:
Hey dude. Sorry for late response!

I would first recommend you read up on the following sites first:

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm
http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/

The first link is very important as it explain who LMBA are (London Bullion Merchant Association). If you are going to Buy Gold then you MUST buy from an approved LMBA dealer (all listed with the links above)

Websites that I’d recommend are:

www.coininvestdirect.com
www.atsbullion.com

I’ve tried and tested both of them and they are sound. ATS actually allow you to buy and sell over the counter. Also note, that you can sell bars to different LMBA merchants from different suppliers (this is the benefit of buying from a LMBA dealer)

As for quantity, I would recommend 250g bars at a minimum. Reason being is the premiums on these bars are inversely proportional to the weight. The more you buy the less premium you pay (don’t go for smaller bars as you’d have to hold them longer before you profit).





I'm not versed on Islamic fiance at all, but I do pay Zakaat on my bullion. Sorry!
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JazakAllah Khair bro. At this point, don't think I can afford 250g bars. I am just coming out of school and have some debt to clear up. I want to start with coins first.

I live in Canada, so I think best be checking out the Royal Canadian Mint and just purchase it from there directly so I can avoid any shipping costs.
 
after much thought, i couldnt ignore silver any longer, ive been thinking of buying some for quite some time, last three to four months and have been waiting for a pull back, but in the mean time it has only been gaining, so decided to take the plunge.

the new record highs seem a good entry point, technically speaking. lets see what happens.

ps. nh do you have any info on the jpmorgan short silver position.
 
if jp morgan naked shorts thousand of silver contracts, and silver keeps rising, do they not at some point need to buy it back to cover their position?

i saw on a tele show a few months ago they started covering, and that was helping the price of silver higher, and were they totally to cover, silver would be around $60 to $70/tr oz.

dont know the validity of such a statement, as it was some late night show, and i was sleepy, so may not remember the figures right.

sorry if this seems like a noob question. just wanted to clear it up in my head.
 
after holding silver for two days i understand why you hedge with long GbpUsd.

u can read all u want, experience is the best teacher, lols.

unfortunately dont have enough to hedge with atm.
 
ElRaja said:
after holding silver for two days i understand why you hedge with long GbpUsd.

u can read all u want, experience is the best teacher, lols.

unfortunately dont have enough to hedge with atm.
Click to expand...

Indeed doost.

May I ask how much Silver (Bullion or Paper) you bought and how much you risked on your hedge? £/pip?

Silver heading to $100/oz my friend! :)
 
ElRaja said:
if jp morgan naked shorts thousand of silver contracts, and silver keeps rising, do they not at some point need to buy it back to cover their position?

i saw on a tele show a few months ago they started covering, and that was helping the price of silver higher, and were they totally to cover, silver would be around $60 to $70/tr oz.

dont know the validity of such a statement, as it was some late night show, and i was sleepy, so may not remember the figures right.

sorry if this seems like a noob question. just wanted to clear it up in my head.
Click to expand...

Forget everything, just remember, there is no limit to printing paper but Gold and Silver bullion are finite.

In the past 30 years Gold and Silver were manipulated by Wall Street crooks, we are now witnessing the unwinding of such manipulation on top of currency debasement! Gold and Silver are in the mother of all bull runs!
 
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Just want to point out, that despite it being a long Easter weekend, where markets are closed worldwide(including Gold and Silver), FX is open.

FX is a true 24hr market.
 
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Namak_Halaal said:
Indeed doost.

May I ask how much Silver (Bullion or Paper) you bought and how much you risked on your hedge? £/pip?

Silver heading to $100/oz my friend! :)
Click to expand...

i bought securities of a leveraged etf long on silver, not much by your standards ofcourse, but a fairly respectable chunk of my portfolio. unfortunately i am not hedged at the moment.

unsure of how to go about it practically i.e. what broker to use, how much money to set aside for it (or even if i have enough at the moment to do that ) and deciding what amount to hedge, i.e. £/pip for each kilo.

gonna bring out the paper and pad and do some sums over the weekend.

in domestic trading in subcontinent some silver trading at $48.50. So $50 some time next week quite likely.

$100 would be very nice, ill be looking to run the bull trend as far as i can, but this is a trade for me, not an investment, therefore i do have a fairly solid price target and exit strategy in my mind.

ps. sorry about not going into exact numbers, i dont like talking about my financial position on a public forum. if it was private i would have told you how much. im sure you can understand
 
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ElRaja said:
in domestic trading in subcontinent some silver trading at $48.50. So $50 some time next week quite likely.

$100 would be very nice, ill be looking to run the bull trend as far as i can, but this is a trade for me, not an investment, therefore i do have a fairly solid price target and exit strategy in my mind.
Click to expand...

Commodity markets and FX are now open;

Gold currently at 1514.8 (+8.3)
Silver currently at 47.87 (120.3)

Both new all time records.

$100 might come sooner that you think! :)
 
US GDP drops to 1.7% (annualized) from 3.1%

Great news for PMs (Precious metals) :)
 
"London trader accused of wiping 4.6 per cent off Greek bank share with ONE 'damaging email'" By Daily Mail Reporter

A London trader will be questioned by police after he was accused by Greek authorities of allegedly sending an email which sent markets crashing.

Paul Moss who works at the London-based Citigroup allegedly sent an email from the Canary Wharf office and said Greece would restructure its debt as soon as the weekend


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...k-share-ONE-damaging-email.html#ixzz1KUNstqeU
Click to expand...


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...cent-Greek-bank-share-ONE-damaging-email.html
 
China Proposes To Cut Two Thirds Of Its $3 Trillion In USD Holdings

China dumping $2 trillion USD should keep the FED and their Inkjets quite busy!!!

Gold currently at 1518.8 (+13.4)
Silver currently at 49.21 (+257)

:)
 
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Namak_Halaal said:
China Proposes To Cut Two Thirds Of Its $3 Trillion In USD Holdings

China dumping $2 trillion USD should keep the FED and their Inkjets quite busy!!!

Gold currently at 1518.8 (+13.4)
Silver currently at 49.21 (+257)

:)
Click to expand...

what i have found quite illuminating is that the price is quite close to what domestic bourses in india were trading silver for, so i guess you can get a pretty good estimate of silver prices even in the holidays.

seems to be settling around $49 for today, the sheer speed of the gains is quite intimidating though.

Eagle_Eye said:
Silver ETF.... first thing tomorrow for me :)
Click to expand...

join the club bro :109:

may i ask which etf you will purchase shares in?
 
ElRaja said:
seems to be settling around $49 for today, the sheer speed of the gains is quite intimidating though.
Click to expand...

I'd be careful, since markets are closed in the UK and USA there's no selling pressure therefore I'm expecting a pull-back this week after tonight at 20:00

What we are witnessing today is the East dumping paper for commodities and since USA is desperate to save the $, come tomorrow, USA will pump the $.

Look out for Helicopter Ben's regularly scheduled press conference this week. He'll talk of QE2, inflation etc, and you can bet your life he'll sugar-coat it.

DXY at serious lows (low 70s), the FED will pump the DXY back to 85+ level. Also keep an eye on Oil, Oil prices cannot be justified at $117+ a barrel, it costs the USA too much in daily terms.

Plenty of manipulation to come, but the ultimate trend for PMs is up.
 
ElRaja said:
what i have found quite illuminating is that the price is quite close to what domestic bourses in india were trading silver for, so i guess you can get a pretty good estimate of silver prices even in the holidays.

seems to be settling around $49 for today, the sheer speed of the gains is quite intimidating though.



join the club bro :109:

may i ask which etf you will purchase shares in?
Click to expand...

ETF leveraged Long silver..... LSIL

Have bought it before around 28. Sold it after 20-30% increase... I thought silver was going to pull back then and held off buying it again...

I may hold it for the longer term and see how it goes... With so much uncertainty around, I cannot see silver going below 35-40 anytime soon.
 
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The Fed bought $7.24 billion in Treasury debt today as part of a program that is the centerpiece of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Dealers offered the Fed $16.95 billion in notes maturing from 2016 through 2018.

You know what this means folks? It means no one is buying US bonds but US; put simply, the USA are buying their own $h1t!
 
its still on an upward trend from the last trading day in the uk if im not wrong, ended on 46 on and a bit on thursday evening, im not sure whether friday was a holiday in usa though, 47.5 not a bad result imo.
 
ElRaja said:
its still on an upward trend from the last trading day in the uk if im not wrong, ended on 46 on and a bit on thursday evening, im not sure whether friday was a holiday in usa though, 47.5 not a bad result imo.
Click to expand...

For sure, still up, but today's $2+ gain was wiped out. Though it's healthy I think.

Tomorrow and Thursday are key days.
 
a lot of profit taking ahead of fed press conference, is bernanke planning something i dont know about?

i dont see ben raising interest rates at this stage, can us really afford it? they can barely manage their debt as it is.
 
ElRaja said:
a lot of profit taking ahead of fed press conference, is bernanke planning something i dont know about?

i dont see ben raising interest rates at this stage, can us really afford it? they can barely manage their debt as it is.
Click to expand...

Fear is kicking in. USA GDP results aren't pretty, so yeah there's profit taking going on.
 
seems like status quo, wt u make of bens presser nh.

imo very wishy washy, nothing really ground breaking. He keeps on talking of judging progress in terms of medium term growth objectives, imo this signals he doesnt plan to raise interest rates for at least 2 quarters, maybe a three, i may be wrong. As i am writing this gold silver are rising and the dollar is weakening.

looking forward to hearing from you bro.
 
ElRaja said:
seems like status quo, wt u make of bens presser nh.

imo very wishy washy, nothing really ground breaking. He keeps on talking of judging progress in terms of medium term growth objectives, imo this signals he doesnt plan to raise interest rates for at least 2 quarters, maybe a three, i may be wrong. As i am writing this gold silver are rising and the dollar is weakening.

looking forward to hearing from you bro.
Click to expand...

Mere bhai, let the price of Gold and Silver do the talking! Gold just set a new record, and Silver just went into orbit! :)

In a nutshell, Bernanke is pumping the market and continues to kill the $. QE2 will end in June, but Ben hasn't ruled out QE3 due to inflation fears!

Translation. The Fed is bankrupt and they cannot afford the diminutive interest on USA debt as it is. The FED must keep all of the rates near zero. When auctions fail because older Treasuries are trading at double digit yields in the secondary market, they at the Federal Reserve stand prepared to print as many trillions as necessary to buy entire issues in perpetuity.
 
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DeadlyVenom said:
Yeah just wasn't sure about paying extra for a guarunteed one rather than a normal one. NH example shows its better to be safe than sorry.

EE have you tried any FX strategies out?
Click to expand...

Not tried any yet. I am heavily invested in shares at the moment. Hopefully take some profit soon and may try it out.

I have bought leveraged silver ETF though recently.
 
ive opened account.. trading xag/usd and making a killing since yesterday. What r ur recommendations? keep buying gold n silver.
 
im in australia, the AUD has been doing well against USD. what r ur thoughts. talks here it will reach 1.12? right now 1.08. i dunno if reserve bank does tinkering with the interest rates especially moving up AUD always seems to drop. From what i have heard the interest rate differential and commodity prices is what AUD dependent on??
 
with the stop losses, how many pips is generally set, i guess its up to individual and their risk apetite also need to study the charts and see where support is. But in general terms is their a good guide?
 
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