Politics - Pakistani 2018 General Election and post-election discussion

[hussain.r97]

So PTI is on a massive rise from last 4 months. Have you checked the expected seat mentioned by JKT in the video i posted above?

Just had a look. He's being a bit ambitious in my opinion, 80 from Punjab and 125 total is a bit of a stretch, I think PTI can get to that much when independents join in though. I'd say 60-65 from Punjab is a more realistic number.

We never know though, anything can happen in the next couple of weeks. Will be interesting to see some more surveys come in.

 

[saeedhk]

PTI has entered into alliance with the GDA on around 15 seats in Sindh. Good move.

 

[Mian]

Just had a look. He's being a bit ambitious in my opinion, 80 from Punjab and 125 total is a bit of a stretch, I think PTI can get to that much when independents join in though. I'd say 60-65 from Punjab is a more realistic number.

We never know though, anything can happen in the next couple of weeks. Will be interesting to see some more surveys come in.

Actually they are building a strong perception i guess and that really matter if you can convince the swing voters that you are coming in power the undecided voter will vote for you

 

[Mian]

PTI has entered into alliance with the GDA on around 15 seats in Sindh. Good move.

Around 5 adjustments with PMLQ in Gujrat, Chakwal and Bahawalpur.

I heard Ijaz ul Haq is also looking for adjustment with PTI in Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar

 

[hussain.r97]

PTI has entered into alliance with the GDA on around 15 seats in Sindh. Good move.

Brilliant, as expected. Can potentially steal a few seats of PPP. Remember that PPP only need to lose 5 seats to potentially be out of government in Sindh.

Would raise an interesting scenario, if an anti PPP coalition is formed, would the CM be from MQM? And who would all the cabinet positions go to?

 

[hussain.r97]

Actually they are building a strong perception i guess and that really matter if you can convince the swing voters that you are coming in power the undecided voter will vote for you

Yeah exactly, the plan is to create a winning mood.

 

[hussain.r97]

Around 5 adjustments with PMLQ in Gujrat, Chakwal and Bahawalpur.

I heard Ijaz ul Haq is also looking for adjustment with PTI in Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar

Would be a bad move. From what I know, locals there are extremely unhappy with him. He has done almost nothing in the last 5 years and chances are that someone else will win. From what I hear, anyone who can promise to fix the canal system in Bahawalnagar will win there.

 

[Mian]

Yeah exactly, the plan is to create a winning mood.

Punjab swing voters historically have this habit of voting for the party they see coming into power.

 

[Waseem]

hussain.r97 these surveys are quite strange, i know PPP are in decent position in Malakand due to strong local candidates but never knew they can even win the seat?

Also as per Habib Akram survey for NA131 PTI-PMLN were neck to neck (PTI ahead by 1%) but this survey shows quite a big gap.

Also, surprised to see Shahbaz Sharif behind by big margin in DG Khan.

Very interesting results!

 

[hussain.r97]

hussain.r97 these surveys are quite strange, i know PPP are in decent position in Malakand due to strong local candidates but never knew they can even win the seat?

Also as per Habib Akram survey for NA131 PTI-PMLN were neck to neck (PTI ahead by 1%) but this survey shows quite a big gap.

Also, surprised to see Shahbaz Sharif behind by big margin in DG Khan.

Very interesting results!

I guess we will see how accurate these surveys on election day.

One thing that makes these ones more credible is that they do a professional survey with proper sampling, adjustment and everything. Habib Akram's surveys aren't really proper surveys as he does not do adjustments to his data, nor does he do any sampling.

 

[PakWarrior]

My biggest fear from Sindh is how effective PPP's dhaandli machine will be.

Remember Imran will need hawk eyed workers at each polling station.

Also I have heard that the army will be deployed for all polling stations throughout Pakistan? Can anyone confirm this?

 

[hussain.r97]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] since most of the Punjab tickets have been announced, and we also know about a lot of the Independents, shall we start with our predictions?

Let's start with Punjab:

NA-55 Attock I

PTI - Major Tahir
PML-N - Sheikh Aftab Ahmed

Thoughts?

 

[PakWarrior]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] since most of the Punjab tickets have been announced, and we also know about a lot of the Independents, shall we start with our predictions?

Let's start with Punjab:

NA-55 Attock I

PTI - Major Tahir
PML-N - Sheikh Aftab Ahmed

Thoughts?

Yes Bro please start.

 

[Mian]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] since most of the Punjab tickets have been announced, and we also know about a lot of the Independents, shall we start with our predictions?

Let's start with Punjab:

NA-55 Attock I

PTI - Major Tahir
PML-N - Sheikh Aftab Ahmed

Thoughts?

We are winning this if Amin isn't going independent. There are reports his group is asking him to contest Independent otherwise his political career will end. In case it's not a 3 way fight Major Tahir will win NA55 for PTI and we will also win PP-1 (Bukhari) and PP-3 (Major Tahir) the MPA seats that comes under this NA seat but we will lose PP-2 to PMLN.

 

[hussain.r97]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] noted.

Next [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

NA-56 Attock II

PTI - Major Tahir
PML-N - Malik Sohail Khan

Thoughts?

 

[hussain.r97]

If anyone disagrees with a prediction, voice it here and we can revisit the constituency and discuss in more depth.

 

[hussain.r97]

We are winning this if Amin isn't going independent. There are reports his group is asking him to contest Independent otherwise his political career will end. In case it's not a 3 way fight Major Tahir will win NA55 for PTI and we will also win PP-1 (Bukhari) and PP-3 (Major Tahir) the MPA seats that comes under this NA seat but we will lose PP-2 to PMLN.

Also, please mention if you think it'll be a close one or a decisive win.

 

[WebGuru]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] since most of the Punjab tickets have been announced, and we also know about a lot of the Independents, shall we start with our predictions?

Let's start with Punjab:

NA-55 Attock I

PTI - Major Tahir
PML-N - Sheikh Aftab Ahmed

Thoughts?

NA-55 is my constituency and as of now we are winning it . IA

There are 2 MNA and 5 MPA seats in Attock and we are winning both MNA seats NA55, NA56 and 3 MPA seats PP-1 Yaawer Bukhari, PP-3 Major Tahir Sadiq, PP-5 Malik Jamshed.

We are going to lose PP-2 (Jahangir Khanzada) and PP-4, Ch Sher Ali.

In 2013 we only won 1 PP seat (Ijaz Bukhari) and lost other seats after a close fight.

 

[hussain.r97]

NA-55 is my constituency and as of now we are winning it . IA

There are 2 MNA and 5 MPA seats in Attock and we are winning both MNA seats NA55, NA56 and 3 MPA seats PP-1 Yaawer Bukhari, PP-3 Major Tahir Sadiq, PP-5 Malik Jamshed.

We are going to lose PP-2 (Jahangir Khanzada) and PP-4, Ch Sher Ali.

In 2013 we only won 1 PP seat (Ijaz Bukhari) and lost other seats after a close fight.

Awesome! Noted.

 

[WebGuru]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] noted.

Next [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION]

NA-56 Attock II

PTI - Major Tahir
PML-N - Malik Sohail Khan

Thoughts?

It's a 3 way fight on NA-56 and it's going to help PTI we will. Ex MNA Malik Ihtebar is entering as Independent with his own MPA panel after PMLN refused him NA ticket because they wanted him to contest on PP-5 under Kamrial this time instead of NA seat again.

 

[Mian]

Also, please mention if you think it'll be a close one or a decisive win.

Close one in my view Sheikh Aftab always manage to win his seat somehow and he is 5 times MNA from here only lost 2002 when his son contested instead of him because of the degree issue.

 

[Waseem]

It's a 3 way fight on NA-56 and it's going to help PTI we will. Ex MNA Malik Ihtebar is entering as Independent with his own MPA panel after PMLN refused him NA ticket because they wanted him to contest on PP-5 under Kamrial this time instead of NA seat again.

OK GREAT, didn't know Malik Ihtebar is contesting Independent, this should seal both NA seats for PTI in Attock. I am very positive Amin Aslam won't contest Independent so that seat should not be an issue. I am still angry at selfish Major Tahir who could've easily contested on NA56 giving Amin Aslam NA55 and both would win their seats comfortably. Now PTI would probably still win but Major will need to leave one seat and re-elections aren't always straightforward so could lose seats which makes me angry at Major who is also contesting on provincial seat (probably saving it all for son and daughter??).

 

[Waseem]

Just heard Ayesha Nazir Jutt who is blaming Ishaq Khakwani for all seat issues and said "We will win both seats and will still join Imran Khan after winning independently so we are not going anywhere. Well idiots, if you were not so selfish, PTI would've won both anyway and now we will most probably lose and Nazir Jutt family won't get anything either.

 

[hussain.r97]

Next [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=133397]WebGuru[/MENTION]

NA-57 Rawalpindi I

PTI - Sadaqat Ali Abbasi
PML-N - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi

Thoughts?

 

[WebGuru]

OK GREAT, didn't know Malik Ihtebar is contesting Independent, this should seal both NA seats for PTI in Attock. I am very positive Amin Aslam won't contest Independent so that seat should not be an issue. I am still angry at selfish Major Tahir who could've easily contested on NA56 giving Amin Aslam NA55 and both would win their seats comfortably. Now PTI would probably still win but Major will need to leave one seat and re-elections aren't always straightforward so could lose seats which makes me angry at Major who is also contesting on provincial seat (probably saving it all for son and daughter??).

Even the ISF and old PTI workers here are angry because of the NA55 ticket decision but if Major wasn't given ticket he was going Independent in elections and that was only going to hurt PTI chances more on both seats. TBH PP-3 is a well deserved seatof Major Tahir because PTI don't even have any strong candidate on PP-3 and this seat comes under two Tehsils (Hassan Abdal and Fateh Jang) where PTI is the weakest in this District and PTI came third in 2013 while Major Tahir Son Zain won NA seat from here in 2013.

 

[WebGuru]

Next [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=133397]WebGuru[/MENTION]

NA-57 Rawalpindi I

PTI - Sadaqat Ali Abbasi
PML-N - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi

Thoughts?

We lost this seat last time and chances are we are again going to lose but this time the panel is really strong so margin of defeat isn't going to really big. Sadaqat Abbasi NA & Murtaza Satti MPA is a strong panel.

 

[Mian]

Next [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=133397]WebGuru[/MENTION]

NA-57 Rawalpindi I

PTI - Sadaqat Ali Abbasi
PML-N - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi

Thoughts?

PMLN is going to win this seat. Khaqan Abbasi is running his campaign in Murree as a PM candidate of PMLN again (Maryam Nawaz Group)

 

[PakWarrior]

Next [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=133397]WebGuru[/MENTION]

NA-57 Rawalpindi I

PTI - Sadaqat Ali Abbasi
PML-N - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi

Thoughts?

This is an almost guaranteed seat for Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. My prediction is noon league will win this one.

 

[Mian]

Just saw Habib Akram survey from Nankana Sahab and PTI is standing at 38% and PMLN at 31%. Interesting fact is PTI wasn't even in top 3 back in 2013 here.

 

[Mian]

Look at TLY votebank guys! i am sure they are going to get 5k-10k votes from many districts of Punjab.

 

[hussain.r97]

Look at TLY votebank guys! i am sure they are going to get 5k-10k votes from many districts of Punjab.

This is going to be hugely damaging for PML-N....

 

[saeedhk]

Look at TLY votebank guys! i am sure they are going to get 5k-10k votes from many districts of Punjab.

I predict TLY to get at least 5000 votes from most Punjab constituencies.

 

[Mian]

This is going to be hugely damaging for PML-N....

I predict TLY to get at least 5000 votes from most Punjab constituencies.

We already saw the trailer of TLY denting votebank in 3 by elections NA-120 Lahore (7100 votes), NA-154 Lodhran (11,400 votes) and NA-4 Peshawar (10,000 votes).

http://www.electionpakistani.com/ge2013/bye-elections/NA-154-Lodhran-2018.htm
http://www.electionpakistani.com/ge2013/bye-elections/NA-4-Peshawar.htm
http://www.electionpakistani.com/ge2013/bye-elections/NA-120-Lahore.htm

 

[Mian]

Just heard Ayesha Nazir Jutt who is blaming Ishaq Khakwani for all seat issues and said "We will win both seats and will still join Imran Khan after winning independently so we are not going anywhere. Well idiots, if you were not so selfish, PTI would've won both anyway and now we will most probably lose and Nazir Jutt family won't get anything either.

Saw the video statement and felt really angry because of their greed now PTI and Jutts both are losing and PMLN is winning these seats easily.

 

[Waseem]

This is going to be hugely damaging for PML-N....

Woah 20%, that is twice as much as i expected and i believe almost 15% of that is PMLN votebank. It could've easily been PMLN 50% - PTI 38% if it wasn't for TLY.

I am not too worried about TLY though, they will be lucky to get even one seat but will impact PMLN votebank (10 - 20K) in each constituency and inshallah will fizzle out before next elections.

 

[Waseem]

NA-57 Rawalpindi I

PTI - Sadaqat Ali Abbasi
PML-N - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi

Easy seat for PMLN.

Winning margin will definitely be far less as Murtaza Satti is contesting on PP seat and PTI has gained popularity now so i expect Khaqan Abbasi to win by around 25,000 votes.

 

[awan_from_soon]

NA-57 Rawalpindi I

PTI - Sadaqat Ali Abbasi
PML-N - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi

Thoughts?

Points that will help PTI:
> Having a Satti in the same panel as an Abbasi - the two main biradris of the area. Furthermore, Ghulam Murtaza Satti is a heavyweight of the area.
> Swing voters that generally are disgruntled by the outgoing government.
> Since early 2017, a significant portion of the major road in the region (N75), has been dug beyond the turn to Murree (up to Kohala). Work is progressing very slowly there, with no machinery visible since Ramazan. Locals are messed up by this.
> Water issue. PMLQ government wanted to establish domestic water pipelines in the area from Jehlum river (Murree and its surrounding areas have a water problem). But the project was shelved by successive governments. PMLN don't want to do it because the project has a Q vibe attached. Meanwhile, pipes for this work dot the Murree roadsides and are rusting away in front of the constituents.
> Boycott Murree campaign that hurt local industry with no redressal by Shahid Khaqan.
> Shahid's campaigning resources are divided among NA-53 and NA-57.

Points that help PMLN:
> Abbasis outnumber the Sattis in the area, and they have a cult-like following for Khaqan Abbasi (Shahid's father who did a lot of work in the area and died in the Ojhri camp blast).
> Shahid Khaqan is campaigning there as potential PM candidate. I saw boards there which say "Insha Allah Prime Minister". That's another + for PMLN there.
> Shahid Khaqan did general development work in the area once he assumed PMship also ensured that there was little to no loadshedding in the region.

Prediction: It will be closer than 2013 but I expect a very tight finish. Probably a margin of under 5k votes. Can go either way but I believe PTI might pip Khaqan and cause a major upset.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Look at TLY votebank guys! i am sure they are going to get 5k-10k votes from many districts of Punjab.

That's a ridiculous amount of votes for TLY. They might end up getting some seats to NA if they campaign hard enough.

 

[Strike!]

In many areas PTI is using Khatme Nabuwat issue against PMLN quite handily.

 

[last_knight]

[MENTION=128087]last_knight[/MENTION] how things stand in Sialkot?

Still waiting for Final List, to be confirmed upposedly by 28 June. A lot of reshuffling has been done.

Baba Maki Madni ticket has been taken back and given to Ali Asjad Malhi, who was an MNA with PMLq in 2002. Good thing is that revised candidate for PP there has a good vote bank.

Still at least 2 PP tickets and one NA ticket not finalised by PTI. Things will be more clear by 28/29 June.

 

[awan_from_soon]

Still waiting for Final List, to be confirmed upposedly by 28 June. A lot of reshuffling has been done.

Baba Maki Madni ticket has been taken back and given to Ali Asjad Malhi, who was an MNA with PMLq in 2002. Good thing is that revised candidate for PP there has a good vote bank.

Still at least 2 PP tickets and one NA ticket not finalised by PTI. Things will be more clear by 28/29 June.

Isn't Baba Maki Madni the 'peer' of Chattha family? They are practically rolling in money with their Gourmet business. They would have easily financed his NA campaign. At least to me there was no reason to revoke this ticket. Being on ground there, what do you think?

 

[Bewal Express]

In many areas PTI is using Khatme Nabuwat issue against PMLN quite handily.

The PTI should have used it much more in rural areas- real politik

 

[last_knight]

Isn't Baba Maki Madni the 'peer' of Chattha family? They are practically rolling in money with their Gourmet business. They would have easily financed his NA campaign. At least to me there was no reason to revoke this ticket. Being on ground there, what do you think?

For exam commitments, I can't stay in Sialkot. Baba Maki Madni was all set to win through his money. Don't know what happened.

 

[Greenstorm]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] since most of the Punjab tickets have been announced, and we also know about a lot of the Independents, shall we start with our predictions?

Let's start with Punjab:

NA-55 Attock I

PTI - Major Tahir
PML-N - Sheikh Aftab Ahmed

Thoughts?

I think PTI will win this seat but it will be a close one as Sheikh Aftab knows how to win elections.

 

[Greenstorm]

My biggest fear from Sindh is how effective PPP's dhaandli machine will be.

Remember Imran will need hawk eyed workers at each polling station.

Also I have heard that the army will be deployed for all polling stations throughout Pakistan? Can anyone confirm this?

ECP has asked for 4 army soldiers at every poling station. It might reduce dhandli but Army will have to deploy 3,00,000 soldiers on poling stations which is not a feasible thing to do.

 

[Varun]

[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] since most of the Punjab tickets have been announced, and we also know about a lot of the Independents, shall we start with our predictions?

Said this before, will say it again - seriously impressed that you guys (mostly overseas Pakistanis residing in sleepy NZ towns and the like) know about EACH and EVERY seat in Pakistan and are willing to predict an entire election using your expertise.

Brilliant!

 

[venomousx]

ECP has asked for 4 army soldiers at every poling station. It might reduce dhandli but Army will have to deploy 3,00,000 soldiers on poling stations which is not a feasible thing to do.

We all know how the army "reduced" dhandli last time around

 

[Greenstorm]

We all know how the army "reduced" dhandli last time around

We can only hope for the best brother.

 

[PakWarrior]

Said this before, will say it again - seriously impressed that you guys (mostly overseas Pakistanis residing in sleepy NZ towns and the like) know about EACH and EVERY seat in Pakistan and are willing to predict an entire election using your expertise.

Brilliant!

Haha Varun you're quite right.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. There is no country on Earth that creates as much drama, excitement and intrigue on a daily basis in relation to politics like Pakistan. It's a unique culture and apart from the corruption and failure of past governments, we wouldn't have it any other way.

You can't get this anywhere else and as British born Pakistani I love it and I'm excited about the future of Pakistan, despite it's flaws.

 

[Greenstorm]

Said this before, will say it again - seriously impressed that you guys (mostly overseas Pakistanis residing in sleepy NZ towns and the like) know about EACH and EVERY seat in Pakistan and are willing to predict an entire election using your expertise.

Brilliant!

Exactly, these guys are fully immersed in this election and have amazing knowledge about each and every constituency.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION] Football world cup is happening and Hafeez is back in the team, just to let you know.

 

[Mian]

Exactly, these guys are fully immersed in this election and have amazing knowledge about each and every constituency.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION] Football world cup is happening and Hafeez is back in the team, just to let you know.

Ask Professor Hafeez to contest from NA125 we will discuss him

 

[Mian]

Heard 4 MPA candidates of PMLN from Abbottabad returned their tickets. According to reports they are doing it because Sardar Mehtab Abbasi didn't get the ticket of NA15?

 

[Mian]

Do you guys know PMLN have given ticket to Bushra Bibi's son in law? (talking about IK's wife Bushra bibi)

 

[awan_from_soon]

Ask Professor Hafeez to contest from NA125 we will discuss him

That had me loling!

 

[awan_from_soon]

Do you guys know PMLN have given ticket to Bushra Bibi's son in law? (talking about IK's wife Bushra bibi)

I won't be surprised, the Manekas are a subclan of the Wattoo biradri. They hold a lot of sway in the politics of the area. Furthermore, there is an air of acrimony between Bushra's former relations and her on the issue of remarrying.

 

[Mian]

I won't be surprised, the Manekas are a subclan of the Wattoo biradri. They hold a lot of sway in the politics of the area. Furthermore, there is an air of acrimony between Bushra's former relations and her on the issue of remarrying.

Yea Manekas are very popular and if i am not wrong during 2008-2013 the head of PMLQ forward block who fully supported Shobaz with 40 odd MPs Mian Mohammad Atta was the brother in law and cousin of Bushra bibi?

The funniest thing was Maiza Hameed ex MNA PMLN retweeted this Geo news tweet without even reading and bashed IK she thought PTI have given ticket to Bushra's son in law. Later she removed the tweet

 

[awan_from_soon]

Yea Manekas are very popular and if i am not wrong during 2008-2013 the head of PMLQ forward block who fully supported Shobaz with 40 odd MPs Mian Mohammad Atta was the brother in law and cousin of Bushra bibi?

The funniest thing was Maiza Hameed ex MNA PMLN retweeted this Geo news tweet without even reading and bashed IK she thought PTI have given ticket to Bushra's son in law. Later she removed the tweet

Wow, missed that. I hope you have a screenshot somewhere for some much needed comic relief in this election thread, which is getting more serious by the day.

 

[Loralai]

Ammar Rashid is running for NA 53.
Ismat Shah Jehan is running for NA 54.

Both are AWP members (the party I support). What do people think of their chances?

 

[Mian]

Wow, missed that. I hope you have a screenshot somewhere for some much needed comic relief in this election thread, which is getting more serious by the day.

haha saw it earlier will find if there is any SS and will share it. For now try this

 

[Mian]

Ammar Rashid is running for NA 53.
Ismat Shah Jehan is running for NA 54.

Both are AWP members (the party I support). What do people think of their chances?

TBH feeling sorry for them they will realize very soon Pakistan isn't an ideal democracy IK learned the lesson in 2011 after spending 15 years in politics since 1996.

 

[Mian]

So Faiz Tamman gets NA65 Chakwal ticket from PMLN (PTI refused him ticket even though PTI don't even have a candidate there and let the field open for PMLQ).

This guy was arrested last year for forcibly marrying a girl. Just imagine the hue and cry in media if he had join PTI.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1353936

Former MNA Faiz Tamman was arrested in Rawalpindi on Friday for allegedly forcibly marrying a female relative and keeping her in illegal confinement, police said.

Tamman was arrested after the suspected victim's sister filed a complaint against him in the Rawat police station, accusing the ex-lawmaker of of marrying the victim through emotional and physical abuse, blackmail and drug abuse, and attempting to seize her property.

The complaint states that Tamman was a distant relative of the victim, an unmarried orphan, and had allegedly offered to help her, but instead took her to his home and eventually married her by manipulating and drugging her.

 

[Loralai]

TBH feeling sorry for them they will realize very soon Pakistan isn't an ideal democracy IK learned the lesson in 2011 after spending 15 years in politics since 1996.

Why feel sorry for them? They are standing for a genuine change and to raise awareness. Unfortunately these things do take time. Real change cannot come overnight. I respect Imran immensely for putting in the hard yards during those years and for maintaining his backing of the democratic process, but can't help but feel he has lost a lot of that credibility in recent years. This having been said, he is still the best candidate for the top job.

 

[awan_from_soon]

haha saw it earlier will find if there is any SS and will share it. For now try this

Pre-poll rigging!

 

[awan_from_soon]

Ammar Rashid is running for NA 53.
Ismat Shah Jehan is running for NA 54.

Both are AWP members (the party I support). What do people think of their chances?

Very few. Both are running from overwhelmingly urban capital city seats, on which they should theoretically have high chances given the party agenda. However, while I respect them for standing up for their cause, they should understand by now that Pakistanis don't vote overwhelming in favor of idealism. Populism with the backing of electables is what drives the train here.

Furthermore, AWP is currently a non-entity in Pakistani politics, an outsider trying their hand for the first time. People are generally not drawn to such first-timers. They think they are 'wasting' their vote and the hours that they have spent queued up for a party that currently has almost negligible chances.

I am sure they will get a few thousand votes, but don't expect any miracles.

 

[Bewal Express]

Why feel sorry for them? They are standing for a genuine change and to raise awareness. Unfortunately these things do take time. Real change cannot come overnight. I respect Imran immensely for putting in the hard yards during those years and for maintaining his backing of the democratic process, but can't help but feel he has lost a lot of that credibility in recent years. This having been said, he is still the best candidate for the top job.

You do ideal politics in a genuine democracy where most voters are well informed. You have educated people on this forum who still believe that the Sharifs dont own properties in London, even though they have admitted to it. IK does not have a magic wand and the problems of debt, poverty, corruption will remain but at least someone will care enough to actually tackle these problems rather than buy real estate in London.

 

[waqar goraya]

Trust me there are still many many rural areas with no access to cable even my village UC with a population of more than 20k got no access to cable and only the wealthy ones got access to dish tv boxes etc while others only watch PTV

Kis gaon k hon aap. I have been to many villages in central Punjab and they all have cable operators.

NA-192 D.G. Khan IV - https://www.facebook.com/PakistanOn...884540815359/1979692552101209/?type=3&theater

NA-35 Malakand - https://www.facebook.com/PakistanOn...884540815359/1979651165438681/?type=3&theater

NA-131 Lahore IX - https://www.facebook.com/PakistanOn...884540815359/1979640102106454/?type=3&theater

PPP winning in Malakand

Just saw Habib Akram survey from Nankana Sahab and PTI is standing at 38% and PMLN at 31%. Interesting fact is PTI wasn't even in top 3 back in 2013 here.

PTI also has a good candidate here. In fact in suburban and rural areas of central Punjab, PTI is doing better than city areas.

 

[waqar goraya]

Karachi tickets are a mixed bag, many workers are upset and there are some groups that are boycotting their local candidates.

Problem with Karachi is that first of all most of the names are relatively unknown, and secondly, it's not as much about the candidate, it's more about other reasons. Karachi voters did not vote for MQM based on candidates, they voted more based on MQM's "Muhajir party" tag. Therefore it is really difficult to say what will happen in Karachi. Most likely PTI will bag 4-5 seats, but I think there is potential to win more seats, it's just too difficult to guess anything beyond 4-5 seats.

Leaving Saahil out is a big miss, he worked really hard in 2013 and almost won his seat, only missed out by about 3000 votes.

I guess PTI will be very happy with 5 seats.

 

[waqar goraya]

Why Shibli Faraz is still attending prime time talk shows in elite TV channels.

Have not seen Asad for quite a time now.

 

[waqar goraya]

Imran Ismael in capital talk and Shibli faraz in Kamran Shahid show. take a bow!

 

[Minnowbasher]

One month to go guys....until the sakht mukabala. Yeh mukabala tou India vs Pakistan se bhi zyada bara
PMLN PTI FINAL
PTI TO WIN

 

[Waseem]

Said this before, will say it again - seriously impressed that you guys (mostly overseas Pakistanis residing in sleepy NZ towns and the like) know about EACH and EVERY seat in Pakistan and are willing to predict an entire election using your expertise.

Brilliant!

[MENTION=132715]Varun[/MENTION] Social media helps a lot i guess, i joined twitter for political news 7 years ago and now get way too much information, at times people sitting in Pakistan are really doubtful if we are still overseas

I commented on facebook post of my school friend few days ago and saw comment from my teacher in Pakistan (left Pak 20 years ago) so i reluctantly added him. We were always reluctant to even talk to this teacher as he was so strict and now we are friends on facebook and exchange political clips (Needless to say he also supports PTI).

 

[Waseem]

Exactly, these guys are fully immersed in this election and have amazing knowledge about each and every constituency.
[MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] [MENTION=135]Waseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION] Football world cup is happening and Hafeez is back in the team, just to let you know.

Don't be fooled by my predictions, it's mostly based on social media news

Real knowledge comes from guys who have real on ground knowledge like [MENTION=142451]Mian[/MENTION] , [MENTION=146984]awan_from_soon[/MENTION] , [MENTION=133865]hussain.r97[/MENTION] , [MENTION=147106]PakWarrior[/MENTION] , [MENTION=133397]WebGuru[/MENTION] , [MENTION=58539]waqar goraya[/MENTION] , [MENTION=128087]last_knight[/MENTION] etc

And thanks for telling us about Hafeez being back lol, there was a time when i would spend all day on cricket section and i now i don't even visit cricket forum

 

[Waseem]

Ammar Rashid is running for NA 53.
Ismat Shah Jehan is running for NA 54.

Both are AWP members (the party I support). What do people think of their chances?

I may not agree with everything they say on social media but i really value their efforts to join real politics just like Jibran Nasir.
It's far easier for people to ridicule people like Imran khan who made huge efforts and sacrifices for 22 years so i want more and more people to try doing something practically and then show us how it should be done, i also want to see if they will be ready to spend decades with little or no gain.

Not sure about them but i wouldn't be too disappointed if Jibran wins (provincial seat) even though i don't agree with EVERYTHING he says these days but overall he is a very decent human being and we need more of them.

 

[hussain.r97]

I may not agree with everything they say on social media but i really value their efforts to join real politics just like Jibran Nasir.
It's far easier for people to ridicule people like Imran khan who made huge efforts and sacrifices for 22 years so i want more and more people to try doing something practically and then show us how it should be done, i also want to see if they will be ready to spend decades with little or no gain.

Not sure about them but i wouldn't be too disappointed if Jibran wins (provincial seat) even though i don't agree with EVERYTHING he says these days but overall he is a very decent human being and we need more of them.

I think we need such people in politics. I'm hoping that if PTI manages to curb corruption and fix the electoral system, we will see better parties emerge and replace the traditional parties. I want to see the day when we have genuine Liberal and Conservative parties in Pakistan, and having people like Jibran Nasir join politics is a step in the right direction, such people bring fresh ideas.

 

[the Great Khan]

Great thread. My first call every morning..great work from the lads..

We do need someway of consolidating all of the information on here though..can anybody think of a good way?

 

[hussain.r97]

Great thread. My first call every morning..great work from the lads..

We do need someway of consolidating all of the information on here though..can anybody think of a good way?

I'm making a spreadsheet of all predictions, candidates, etc. Most of it is updated.

 

[hussain.r97]

We recently concluded the second of our election season national surveys, an exercise we are aiming to do approximately every ten days until July 25. As we had reported over ten days ago, PTI continues to hold on to a very small lead in the popular vote (3 percentage points), and thus only holds a small advantage in terms of seats and based on our district-by-district, uniform swing seat projections, still falls far short of the magic number of 137.

As always, Punjab continues to exhibit the most ability to not only swing in either direction, as opposed to stagnant numbers in other provinces, the contest there for the first time since 2008 will be a nail-biting one. PML(N) holds on to a very small, 40-37% lead over PTI in the province. However, despite tying the PTI for votes in Punjab, it is ahead in our seat projections for the province (71-53) by virtue of having a highly concentrated voter base in Central Punjab.

METHODOLOGY: Survey based on 1293 respondents. Our coverage was national (all four provinces including FATA), and rural/urban. 54% of our respondents were male, 46% women. 31% we young (under 30), 48% middle aged (30-50), and 21% old (50+). 67% of our respondents were in rural areas and 33% of the respondents were in urban areas. Our mode of surveying was face to face, and the survey was conducted from June 22-24. You can expect a margin of error of +/- 3% at a 95% confidence interval.

New poll out - https://www.facebook.com/PakistanOnlineOpinionPolling/posts/1981507108586420

 

[hussain.r97]

Updated vote projections

 

[hussain.r97]

Updated seat projection tracker

 

[hussain.r97]

Ammar Rashid is running for NA 53.
Ismat Shah Jehan is running for NA 54.

Both are AWP members (the party I support). What do people think of their chances?

AWP have no chance this election but it is great to see such parties forming on ideological grounds. They have a solid leftist manifesto and I would love to see them replace the PPP as Pakistan's left wing party in the future. At this stage, people don't really know about AWP nor are they seen as a party that can win the election and form government.