Red-Indian
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Replacing India will be a really tangled knot. The ICC makes about $600m in income each year out of which approximately $500m is from the Disney-Star deal for the Indian market. Part of the contract is that the ICC guarantees 1 major men's limited overs tournament each year WITH Indian participation. If the condition is not met either due to lack of a tournament (say COVID) or lack of India participation, Disney has a right to pull out of the deal for the year and the TV rights will have to be rendered.I feel like it's possible. Slim chance but in other cases, I would have said 100% no.
The Champions Trophy is sort of the odd one out and generates the least revenue of the major tournaments. It will be interesting to see what they do and how they maneuver around this.
Regardless, the most likely solution will be a hybrid model and ICC foots the bill for all "away" matches. It will ruin the tournament's vibe but it is what it is.
Now let's say Sri Lanka replaces India and the tournament is optimistically resold in the Indian market for $100m, that's a 67% drop in revenue for the year. BCCI will lose $150m; England, Australia and Pakistan will lose close to $25m for the year. We're still working on hypotheticals but given what I've read, the PCB would have it's revenues for the year.
And this I would stipulate is best case. It's tough to consider all the ramifications - BCCI trying to replace the revenue with a mini-IPL, conflicts between boards, implications on future bilateral tours etc. etc.
It will require a really deft hand to navigate all this.