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Minimum wins for a chance at the 2019 World Cup semi-finals / Wins that guarantee a semi-final slot

Mathematically with 11 Points, Pakistan can still make it to the Semi Finals.

Even in 1992, Pakistan won just 1 out of first 5 matches. If they win next 4 then definitely there are 75% chances that they will play in Semi Finals,
It is not over until it is over.

In 2017 ICC Champions Trophy, Pakistan managed to win several big matches in a row.

Proteas and Kiwiz are not as good as India and Aus.
We still have chance.
 
Do they even deserve to go to the semis? There are far more deserving teams out there.
 
Isn't it better to lose all matches if it means some of the dead weight in the team gets dropped. Even if Pak flukes its way to the Semi finals, they are going to get humiliated there.
 
Lol save your brain power for something useful bro. This team doesn't look like they want to get there so why do all this calculation for crap. Use it for something useful
 
The team has been far too ordinary for too long. There has to be a clean up after this tournament
 
If you lose badly today, your NRR will be really bad. There will be at least another team with 11 points.

But you will at least give yourself a chance.
 
This team doesn't deserve it. They're not good enough. I wish we lose the next match so we're out for good. There are no match winners in this team.
 
giphy.gif
 
afgan and south africa and bangla are not easy teams.
im not sure we gona win against them.
6 players in today line up need to drop for 2 to 3 years at least. and rest 4 are too old. they will go away by them self.
so their will b a new team .
keep calm and carry on.
 
Who said they are winning other games. Expect them to be humiliated by SA, NZ, and Bangladesh. Pakistan will go back home with just two wins over England and Afghanistan. Some mediocre players will be replaced with another set of mediocre players and the cycle will continue.
 
Australia India England are sure
And no way Nz Gona lose that 4th spot
 
lmao just stop it dude! have some self respect.

no fan wants this pathetic team in the semis. We've had enough embarrassment for one tournament
 
The fact is Pakistan doesn’t deserve to advance to the next stage. Bad captaincy, horrible team selection and downright pathetic strategy from the team management throughout the World Cup. It is not fair for serial unprofessional sides like Pakistan to advance at the expense of others. Cricket doesn’t deserve this.
 
This team doesn't deserve to be in the semis. I'd rather get knocked out and see some serious changes.
 
Sarwar89 said:
Even in 1992, Pakistan won just 1 out of first 5 matches. If they win next 4 then definitely there are 75% chances that they will play in Semi Finals,
It is not over until it is over.

In 2017 ICC Champions Trophy, Pakistan managed to win several big matches in a row.

Proteas and Kiwiz are not as good as India and Aus.
We still have chance.
Click to expand...

This is old news
 
New Zealand will have to have a dramatic collapse for Pakistan to make top 4.

India/England and Australia are beyond reach. They are too good.
 
Nothing is gonna change. People wont like this but amir Imad Babar and fakhar are our better players.
Even now compare Imad to sarfaraz
 
The only game we should focus on is against Afghanistan, rest is all lost. India Pakistan rivalry is over now, AfPak is the future & we better start well against them. There are thousands of Afghans living in Islamabad who are passionately waiting for this match. They would burn down the city in celebrations if Afghanistan beat us.
 
Well New Zealand play twice before our next game, so we will know one way or another whether we still have a chance.
 
Initially our must win games were against the Windies. Once the SL game was rained off the Aussie game became a must win...

Some people said I was wrong and that winning 5 games would take us to Semis...
It was never gonna happen, especially after the SL game and then losing to the Aussies...
We went to the India game with zero confidence and what brains we have were scrambled.
 
aqeelPK said:
The only game we should focus on is against Afghanistan, rest is all lost. India Pakistan rivalry is over now, AfPak is the future & we better start well against them. There are thousands of Afghans living in Islamabad who are passionately waiting for this match. They would burn down the city in celebrations if Afghanistan beat us.
Click to expand...

Don't cry. We've been losing since 2003. It's nothing new.
 
hasanali said:
Well New Zealand play twice before our next game, so we will know one way or another whether we still have a chance.
Click to expand...

If they win both we're out basically. there would literally be no chance for us as they would be at 11 points and the match we can go to is 11 and their nrr is way superior to ours.
 
Ronaldo7 said:
If they win both we're out basically. there would literally be no chance for us as they would be at 11 points and the match we can go to is 11 and their nrr is way superior to ours.
Click to expand...


Correct. However, if they lose both games, they will be under HUGE pressure.
 
Even if we make the semi's the team we have is simply not on par with the top teams.

Only Amir and Babar would make the lineup of any of the following teams - Aus, India, England.

No one else in the lineup makes the starting lineup of the top 3 teams in this WC. We do not have the talent to compete. We then have a bad mental makeup, especially when chasing. So it leads me to believe the best thing to do for the rest of the tournament is give your younger players a go. Afridi should play every game. Shadab should play. Malik and Hafeez must be dropped. Change your batting lineup.

Just give younger players a shot at playing these WC games, and atmosphere under pressure. So they could be ready for a future situation. And if by chance you win all the games and have a shot at SFs so be it.

Dumbest thing we can do is to keep playing Hafeez and Malik each game. Drop them, bring in the less experienced players and change the batting lineup a bit. Bowling wise, try new things, use Shadab differently. He did better as a new ball bowler. Why not try that again? Bring in Shaheen. Bring in Ali.

Bowlers - Amir, Afridi, Wasim, Shadab, Hasnain.
Batting - Haq, Fakhar, Babar, Sohail, Ali
+ Sarfraz

Try these 11 moving foward.
 
Bangladesh need 21 runs in 65 balls to win against WI which defeated Pakistan so easily
:hamster::36::36:
 
Brilliant win for Bangladesh and this also helps Pakistan in a way.

If Pakistan now win all their games, they are only competing with New Zealand. Bangladesh have ensured West Indies won't go through and both Pakistan and Bangladesh can't qualify together.
 
Alright some one repost our likely qualification path...there's too many self pity posts here for me to go through to find the answer.
 
Pete Rose said:
Alright some one repost our likely qualification path...there's too many self pity posts here for me to go through to find the answer.
Click to expand...

Still the same. We have to win all our games and hope New Zealand loses to us and only wins one more match.
 
hasanali said:
Still the same. We have to win all our games and hope New Zealand loses to us and only wins one more match.
Click to expand...

So NZ has to lose to US plus two more to any of Aus, Eng, Wi or SA
 
Last edited:
For once I agree with you. People cry too much. Let's wait till the end to cry.
 
baring any other ridiculous upsets...it is pretty simple now...

WITHOUT RRD:

(a) Pak needs to win their remaining 4 games
(b) NZ needs to lose 4 out of 5 remaining games or 3 losses plus a washout (but not against us)

NZ vs SA
NZ vs WI
NZ vs PAK
NZ vs AUS
NZ vs ENG


With RRD:

Pak wins all 4 and a few by big margins
NZ wins 2 out of 5 and loses a couple with big margins


unlikely but possible....
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New Zealand's win today over South Africa makes it even tougher for Pakistan. An unlikely 4 wins out of 4 in their remaining games might not be enough <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CWC19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CWC19</a> <a href="https://t.co/V91tkdF0tD">pic.twitter.com/V91tkdF0tD</a></p>— Saj Sadiq (@Saj_PakPassion) <a href="https://twitter.com/Saj_PakPassion/status/1141420522170998784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Only way left for Pakistan to qualify for Semis now

Pakistan is at 3 Points from 5 matches, with matches left against South Africa, New Zealand, Bangaldesh and Afghanistan.

New Zealand is at 9 points from 5 matches, with matches left against Pakistan, West Indies, England and Australia.

If Pakistan wins all their remaining 4 matches, they will be at 3+8 = 11 Points

If NZ loses all their remaining 4 matches, they stay at 9 points.

So for Pakistan to qualify for the Semis, Pakistan will have to win all matches and NZ will have to lose all matches from hereon.
 
That's not the only way... Australia can also lose their remaining big games and get upset by Bangladesh... or England can lose to the big opponents they haven't faced yet, etc. Anything can happen even if its unlikely.
 
One thing is for sure though. Pakistan will have to win out :P That's the hardest thing in any scenario that's presented.. because we have a tough lineup with South Africa, New Zealand and Bangladesh! Even Afghanistan won't be easy.
 
The hardest part is to win all four games for us. I don't believe we can, but let's hope they do.
 
Why is everybody forgetting Australia. If Bangladesh beats the Aussies tomorrow and the Aussies go on to lose to both England and NZ (which looks pretty likely), only beating SA, they'll be on 10 points. Bangladesh after beating Afghanistan and Australia and losing to India would put them at 9 points when they face us. If we win our next 3 (very unlikely) and the rest of the results fall in place, our game against Bangladesh will be a quarter final.
 
aloo paratha said:
Why is everybody forgetting Australia. If Bangladesh beats the Aussies tomorrow and the Aussies go on to lose to both England and NZ (which looks pretty likely), only beating SA, they'll be on 10 points. Bangladesh after beating Afghanistan and Australia and losing to India would put them at 9 points when they face us. If we win our next 3 (very unlikely) and the rest of the results fall in place, our game against Bangladesh will be a quarter final.
Click to expand...

Hmm sounds interesting...
 
Rafa said:
Pakistan is at 3 Points from 5 matches, with matches left against South Africa, New Zealand, Bangaldesh and Afghanistan.

New Zealand is at 9 points from 5 matches, with matches left against Pakistan, West Indies, England and Australia.

If Pakistan wins all their remaining 4 matches, they will be at 3+8 = 11 Points

If NZ loses all their remaining 4 matches, they stay at 9 points.

So for Pakistan to qualify for the Semis, Pakistan will have to win all matches and NZ will have to lose all matches from hereon.
Click to expand...

New Zealand will easily win against WI and Pakistan. Versus Australia and England, it will be thrillers
 
Posted this in another thread but seems to be more relevant here:

I know this is wishful thinking but if Pakistan do win their last 4 games, is their chance of making the semis likely or still unlikely? - is it above or below 50%?
 
topspin said:
Posted this in another thread but seems to be more relevant here:

I know this is wishful thinking but if Pakistan do win their last 4 games, is their chance of making the semis likely or still unlikely? - is it above or below 50%?
Click to expand...

It will take a miracle for us to qualify and frankly that’s been the case since we lost to Australia.
 
Rafa said:
Pakistan is at 3 Points from 5 matches, with matches left against South Africa, New Zealand, Bangaldesh and Afghanistan.

New Zealand is at 9 points from 5 matches, with matches left against Pakistan, West Indies, England and Australia.

If Pakistan wins all their remaining 4 matches, they will be at 3+8 = 11 Points

If NZ loses all their remaining 4 matches, they stay at 9 points.

So for Pakistan to qualify for the Semis, Pakistan will have to win all matches and NZ will have to lose all matches from hereon.
Click to expand...

NZ hasn't lost a single match and to pray for them to lose all matches is a joke LOL.
 
topspin said:
Posted this in another thread but seems to be more relevant here:

I know this is wishful thinking but if Pakistan do win their last 4 games, is their chance of making the semis likely or still unlikely? - is it above or below 50%?
Click to expand...

Sure there is. England, Australia, NZ and India have not qualified yet. Any of these go on a bad run and lose 4/5 matches, Pak will be in there. Australia still have to play NZ and England and their last game is against SA who are out, so might play with a lot of freedom to ruin their old enemies Aus chance.
 
topspin said:
Posted this in another thread but seems to be more relevant here:

I know this is wishful thinking but if Pakistan do win their last 4 games, is their chance of making the semis likely or still unlikely? - is it above or below 50%?
Click to expand...

If we win 4 games, we need Aus OR Eng to lose 3 of their remaining games.

Eng have SL Ind Aus NZ
Aus have Bang Eng NZ SA

You can put your own percentages to that.
If bang win 2maw I think it makes it tough for Aus
 
Ashraful_Rox said:
You mean Eng vs India
Aus vs NZ will be a good one also Aus vs Eng and Pak vs Saf
Click to expand...

i meant the semifinals

there are a few good matches for me though before semis

pakistan vs bangladesh
pakistan vs south africa
aus vs bangladesh
england vs india
newzealnd ** australia
 
One thing I’ve been wondering is what we need to do to catch NZ on RR. Because if we win out and they lose three more games our RR will go up and there’s will come down.
 
Needs to be a combination of winning all 4 games and the other team games getting washed out, specifically NZ
 
KingKhanWC said:
Sure there is. England, Australia, NZ and India have not qualified yet. Any of these go on a bad run and lose 4/5 matches, Pak will be in there. Australia still have to play NZ and England and their last game is against SA who are out, so might play with a lot of freedom to ruin their old enemies Aus chance.
Click to expand...

I had no expectations for this team but it still hurts as a die hard fan of this team (even though it doesn't seem to be case). England is Pakistan's happy hunting ground and with another 4 year wait, I am distraught.
 
hasanali said:
One thing I’ve been wondering is what we need to do to catch NZ on RR. Because if we win out and they lose three more games our RR will go up and there’s will come down.
Click to expand...

Nz have already played against Afghanistan and Bangaldesh while Pakistan are yet to play them.

So if Pakistan can bash Bangaldesh and Afghanistan by big margins then their run rate can improve.
 
I think England India and Australia will be top 3..and 4 teams will be vying for 4th spot with 9 points each..
NZ, SAF ,WI and Pak will likely be on 9 points.and runrate will decide .
If BD beats pak, then they will swap places with pak who go down to 7 points ..
 
topspin said:
I had no expectations for this team but it still hurts as a die hard fan of this team (even though it doesn't seem to be case). England is Pakistan's happy hunting ground and with another 4 year wait, I am distraught.
Click to expand...

Same. 4 years is a long time and now that's how long we have to wait.
 
Again to re-iterate, for all those who still have faith - just hang on to it! No need to cut wrists. That's why I'm so upset at our ex-cricketers and media who start talking about post-WC scenarios when this tournament isn't even over yet. Baad ka baad mein dekhenge.. right now we have games to win!

The only team in my eyes that is almost a sure-fire for semis is India - mainly because they haven't lost a game and only have 1 tough game remaining. Wins against Aus/SA and draw vs NZ puts them in a great place. England is in the worst place if you look at the table - that's because they dropped a game outside of the top 4 and still have the other top 3 teams remaining! Australia has had a strong tournament so far, but again, we're saying that mainly because of their win against Pakistan. They still haven't faced the other higher ranked ODI teams in the tournament (England, NZ, SA) and the one they did play against they lost (India). Both Aus/Eng are closer to the bottom half of the table than it seems - we're just giving them the benefit of the doubt.

It still made sense for us to want NZ to lose, but it's far more likely that Aus or Eng would drop below 11 pts than any other team.
 
Bottom line is:
Pakistan needs to win all games. 3+7=11
Need to improve RR. It can happen against AFG, if they play like ENG.

Qualification scenarios.
1. NZ = 9
NZ has 4 remaining games.
Lose against ENG, AUS, PAK, and WI.
If they win 1 win, it will come down to RR.

2. AUS = 8
NEED TO WIN 2 GAMES OUT OF 4 against NZ, SA, and BD. if the win 2, they qualify, if they win they are out. simple is that. everything will be clearer after tomorrow's game against BD.
 
We're actually going to end up as the 9th side.

I only see us defeating Afghanistan
 
More than a 99% probability that Pakistan is going home after the group matches. Every single day the hard core followers have to twist like a pretzel to try and find a way to believe that there is a way for Pakistan will make it to the semis. Hope is a good thing. Wishful thinking is not though.
 
narayanjan said:
More than a 99% probability that Pakistan is going home after the group matches. Every single day the hard core followers have to twist like a pretzel to try and find a way to believe that there is a way for Pakistan will make it to the semis. Hope is a good thing. Wishful thinking is not though.
Click to expand...

But, but 1992
 
MSHKing said:
Bottom line is:
Pakistan needs to win all games. 3+7=11
Need to improve RR. It can happen against AFG, if they play like ENG.

Qualification scenarios.
1. NZ = 9
NZ has 4 remaining games.
Lose against ENG, AUS, PAK, and WI.
If they win 1 win, it will come down to RR.

2. AUS = 8
NEED TO WIN 2 GAMES OUT OF 4 against NZ, SA, and BD. if the win 2, they qualify, if they win they are out. simple is that. everything will be clearer after tomorrow's game against BD.
Click to expand...

3+8=11*
 
Some people will find a silver-lining on doomsday. It is good to be positive, but positivity should be within the realms of reality. Anyone who genuinely thinks that Pakistan is not done and dusted in this World Cup needs serious help. I am actually glad that we are getting eliminated early and that is why I was very happy to see New Zealand dashing our hopes yesterday.

This team doesn't deserve to get lucky and go through. We are a mediocre, fluke team that fully deserves its 6th ranking. Also, our players and even our fans have no respect for the game.
 
zulfiqar said:
Again to re-iterate, for all those who still have faith - just hang on to it! No need to cut wrists. That's why I'm so upset at our ex-cricketers and media who start talking about post-WC scenarios when this tournament isn't even over yet. Baad ka baad mein dekhenge.. right now we have games to win!

The only team in my eyes that is almost a sure-fire for semis is India - mainly because they haven't lost a game and only have 1 tough game remaining. Wins against Aus/SA and draw vs NZ puts them in a great place. England is in the worst place if you look at the table - that's because they dropped a game outside of the top 4 and still have the other top 3 teams remaining! Australia has had a strong tournament so far, but again, we're saying that mainly because of their win against Pakistan. They still haven't faced the other higher ranked ODI teams in the tournament (England, NZ, SA) and the one they did play against they lost (India). Both Aus/Eng are closer to the bottom half of the table than it seems - we're just giving them the benefit of the doubt.

It still made sense for us to want NZ to lose, but it's far more likely that Aus or Eng would drop below 11 pts than any other team.
Click to expand...
Going to agree with you completely
 
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