Pakistan and India's final peace

[Pakpak]

A hypothetical thread, we talk a lot about how if there was peace between our country and India both countries would excel and how Kashmir is the only stumbling block for a permanent peace.

But is it? If tomorrow Pakistan and India finally resolve the Kashmir issue will there be:

-permanent long-standing peace?
-an end to the constant suspicion and bitterness held over countless incidents from the past?
-will the awams of both nations accept it?
-will both countries still participate in proxy wars to get ''upper hand'' in South Asia?

Trolls, the usual suspects, please stay away. I don't want this thread binned.

 

[CricketCartoons]

No, there won't be long standing peace. The enmity goes much deeper than just Kashmir (Doesn't mean Kashmir issue shouldn't be solved)

First priority should be to get peace between the many communities within each country, and fill the fault lines. India Pakistan friendship means nothing if both have a divided society loggerheads at each another.

 

[Sidilicious]

A hypothetical thread, we talk a lot about how if there was peace between our country and India both countries would excel and how Kashmir is the only stumbling block for a permanent peace.

But is it? If tomorrow Pakistan and India finally resolve the Kashmir issue will there be:

-permanent long-standing peace?
-an end to the constant suspicion and bitterness held over countless incidents from the past?
-will the awams of both nations accept it?
-will both countries still participate in proxy wars to get ''upper hand'' in South Asia?

Trolls, the usual suspects, please stay away. I don't want this thread binned.

There will be a new issue. When a politician wants to deflect the problem within the nation/government, they usually use an external threat as a means to move the limelight. In the case of Pakistan and India, its Kashmir. Politicians of these countries will find another problem.

Just to add, I don't think this problem is only limited to India and Pakistan. This happens in most developing economies. In fact, even US does it now and then.

 

[PakLFC]

I agree with post 2. The enmity and distrust between us and them is much more then just Kashmir. If it ever got solved something else would replace it in no time. We already have the water situation and Siachen to name two. India wants complete hegemony in the region that we will never agree to.

 

[SandyB]

IMHO the Most reasonable/practical solution will be to have a demilitarised buffer zone at the border which will allow free movement of Kashmiris of either parts to move to and fro. Either countries should try and stabilise the lives and livelihoods of the people of Kashmir by decommissioning the use of weapons and promoting self reliance for the state via economic development and job creation. This model has found reasonable success in managing the Northern Ireland - Republic Of Ireland conflicts .

Anyone expecting the idealistic solution anytime soon will be left disappointed. Both countries have far too much at stake in this issue to let go even a little bit without incurring great consequences (both political and strategic). The fact that this was allowed to drag on for 70 years even though the issue has been far more damaging in real life to both nations , indicates that the issue is more than just about controlling the piece of land . Kashmir has been turned into a symbol of every single thing that is wrong in India - Pak relations and the natural rivalry that exists between the two sister nations.

 

[Pakpak]

IMHO the Most reasonable/practical solution will be to have a demilitarised buffer zone at the border which will allow free movement of Kashmiris of either parts to move to and fro. Either countries should try and stabilise the lives and livelihoods of the people of Kashmir by decommissioning the use of weapons and promoting self reliance for the state via economic development and job creation. This model has found reasonable success in managing the Northern Ireland - Republic Of Ireland conflicts .

Anyone expecting the idealistic solution anytime soon will be left disappointed. Both countries have far too much at stake in this issue to let go even a little bit without incurring great consequences (both political and strategic). The fact that this was allowed to drag on for 70 years even though the issue has been far more damaging in real life to both nations , indicates that the issue is more than just about controlling the piece of land . Kashmir has been turned into a symbol of every single thing that is wrong in India - Pak relations and the natural rivalry that exists between the two sister nations.

Musharraf almost got the deal with India, according to all reasonable Pakistani sources, with his four point formula. This was dumped as he was deposed and then the subsequent Pakistani political instability and Mumbai following all that. The 'agreement' broadly was:

''-it is important that military forces on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) are kept to the minimum, especially in populated areas;
-it is imperative that the people of Jammu and Kashmir on either side of the LoC should be able to move freely from one side to the other;
-it is important to ensure self-governance for internal management in all areas on the same basis on both sides of the LoC, and Jammu and Kashmir can, with the active encouragement of the governments of India and Pakistan, work out a cooperative and consultative mechanism to maximise the gains of cooperation in solving problems of social and economic development of the region
- it is essential that any agreement must ensure that the Line of Control is like a border between any two normal states. There can be no redrawal of borders.”

Which is reasonable and similar to what you wrote too.

 

[KingKhanWC]

IMHO the Most reasonable/practical solution will be to have a demilitarised buffer zone at the border which will allow free movement of Kashmiris of either parts to move to and fro. Either countries should try and stabilise the lives and livelihoods of the people of Kashmir by decommissioning the use of weapons and promoting self reliance for the state via economic development and job creation. This model has found reasonable success in managing the Northern Ireland - Republic Of Ireland conflicts .

Anyone expecting the idealistic solution anytime soon will be left disappointed. Both countries have far too much at stake in this issue to let go even a little bit without incurring great consequences (both political and strategic). The fact that this was allowed to drag on for 70 years even though the issue has been far more damaging in real life to both nations , indicates that the issue is more than just about controlling the piece of land . Kashmir has been turned into a symbol of every single thing that is wrong in India - Pak relations and the natural rivalry that exists between the two sister nations.

Great post. Let Kashmir be free, it's a start but a very big start .

 

[sjahmed23]

Will not happen as India cannot stay united without the threat of Pakistan. Politicians (in India) and Army and Mullahs (in Pakistan) use each side as boogeyman to stay in Power.

 

[SandyB]

Musharraf almost got the deal with India, according to all reasonable Pakistani sources, with his four point formula. This was dumped as he was deposed and then the subsequent Pakistani political instability and Mumbai following all that. The 'agreement' broadly was:

''-it is important that military forces on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) are kept to the minimum, especially in populated areas;
-it is imperative that the people of Jammu and Kashmir on either side of the LoC should be able to move freely from one side to the other;
-it is important to ensure self-governance for internal management in all areas on the same basis on both sides of the LoC, and Jammu and Kashmir can, with the active encouragement of the governments of India and Pakistan, work out a cooperative and consultative mechanism to maximise the gains of cooperation in solving problems of social and economic development of the region
- it is essential that any agreement must ensure that the Line of Control is like a border between any two normal states. There can be no redrawal of borders.”

Which is reasonable and similar to what you wrote too.

Yes I've heard about it . Didn't know why that proposal fell apart . On our side it was the BJP ruling at the time with AB Vajpayee at the helm. AB was a leader who commanded unanimous respect and approval in India at the time and the "Hindutvavadi" forces weren't strong enough to overrule him back then . That could've, would've , should've been the end of it .

 

[Pakpak]

Yes I've heard about it . Didn't know why that proposal fell apart . On our side it was the BJP ruling at the time with AB Vajpayee at the helm. AB was a leader who commanded unanimous respect and approval in India at the time and the "Hindutvavadi" forces weren't strong enough to overrule him back then . That could've, would've , should've been the end of it .

This was almost agreed with Manmohan's leadership too around 2006, Kasuri our ex-FM has said it in various interviews that there was a lot of back-channel talks with Indians and even though there were issues there were a lot of similar views about the above as well. It got scuttled because Musharraf became embroiled in a power struggle which led to his removal, then BB's assassination and right after that Mumbai. Though only you as an Indian would be able to tell if this would have passed under Manmohan's leadership, as I am not familiar with Indian political scene from 2004-2014 much.

 

[SandyB]

Will not happen as India cannot stay united without the threat of Pakistan. Politicians (in India) and Army and Mullahs (in Pakistan) use each side as boogeyman to stay in Power.

You are gravely mistaken brother. It's not the threat of pakistan that is the primary issue. If India gives away Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh goes next .

There is atleast 10% hope on our side that in case Kashmir is granted freedom hypothetically Pakistan will not try and annex it fully. But in Arunachal Pradesh's case it is ZERO !!! Arunachal and certain other parts of North East were ruled by Buddhist monks for Intermittent periods in India's history . So via annexing Tibet, China thinks it can claim Arunachal as well.

Once that happens, China does its usual stuff, wipe out local culture, force communism, crush any & all Pro-India sentiment. Within 20-30 years we're looking at a completely China-fied Arunachal. Further support for Separatists in Nagaland, Mizoram, Assam etc ensues. China will try and take over as much of the North east as it can , simply for the race issue(they look like us so they're better off with us ).

This will set off a chain reaction that will threaten the integrity of our entire nation. That IS THE ISSUE !

 

[SandyB]

This was almost agreed with Manmohan's leadership too around 2006, Kasuri our ex-FM has said it in various interviews that there was a lot of back-channel talks with Indians and even though there were issues there were a lot of similar views about the above as well. It got scuttled because Musharraf became embroiled in a power struggle which led to his removal, then BB's assassination and right after that Mumbai. Though only you as an Indian would be able to tell if this would have passed under Manmohan's leadership, as I am not familiar with Indian political scene from 2004-2014 much.

Neither Manmohan nor the Congress of that time had the will or the determination to make it happen. Vajpayee was one leader who could , so could Advani , the "Hindutva" head of the BJP then, who did have some kind of soft spot for his nation of Birth.

2008 changed everything , the RSS-BJP of present has reinforced itself on the Hindutva plank which unfortunately has enough buyers in India (mainly up north) and the congress can't now make any move that is more pro-peace than the BJP , only to see it loose whatever support of conservative Hindus that remain with them .

Any peace process from India's side from now own, can only happen from BJP, which is not implausible mind you, but every-time the BJP govt fails on its developmental promises, it'll keep going back to Hindutva beacause a good number of Indian hindus are suckers for it .. With the Gandhis still at the helm, congress's future is bleak . Unless some sort of grand coalition happens among regional players, BJP is getting one more term for sure !

 

[Rafa]

But in Arunachal Pradesh's case it is ZERO !!! Arunachal and certain other parts of North East were ruled by Buddhist monks for Intermittent periods in India's history . So via annexing Tibet, China thinks it can claim Arunachal as well.

Once that happens, China does its usual stuff, wipe out local culture, force communism, crush any & all Pro-India sentiment. Within 20-30 years we're looking at a completely China-fied Arunachal. Further support for Separatists in Nagaland, Mizoram, Assam etc ensues. China will try and take over as much of the North east as it can , simply for the race issue(they look like us so they're better off with us ).

What is this Arunachal issue? Why would China be interested in it? Is the region so full of valuable resources or the location is very strategic? Do Chinese people have any affinity towards the regions that you mention similar to how Pakistanis feel about Kashmir?

Would China simply annex other states in the East after annexing Arunachal? China is already so huge in terms of area, why would they need more Indian states ? If people look like Chinese, then would China annex countries like Myanmar and Vietnam too because these people too look like Chinese? I mean if race is the factor.

Do countries simply want to annex more and more land and add more area to its already huge landscape? Would China then set it's sight to annex Bengal? Where will it stop?

 

[Pakpak]

Thank you for your posts, informative [MENTION=140459]SandyB[/MENTION]. Shame you don't post more.

 

[SandyB]

What is this Arunachal issue? Why would China be interested in it? Is the region so full of valuable resources or the location is very strategic? Do Chinese people have any affinity towards the regions that you mention similar to how Pakistanis feel about Kashmir?

China considers and always calls Arunachal as "Southern Tibet ". Apart from the strategic importance (entry point to India, poor terrain access from India's side meaning tough to defend attacks from that direction), the next Dalai Lama can only be chosen from a region that comes under the ancient tibet territory. Out of this China controls all regions of ancient Tibet except Arunachal.

So the possibility of another Dalai Lama being reincarnated/discovered from Arunachal exists, Who will continue the present Dalai Lama's Tibetian Government in Exile, and further lead the anti occupation movement in Tibet . With Arunachal under their control China now has full authority over crowning the Next Lama, which will of course be a pro-China puppet of their choosing . So that would mean the absolute completion of the Tibetean occupation !

Would China simply annex other states in the East after annexing Arunachal? China is already so huge in terms of area, why would they need more Indian states ? If people look like Chinese, then would China annex countries like Myanmar and Vietnam too because these people too look like Chinese? I mean if race is the factor.

The Chinese communist government sees it as their duty to spread their version of communism and project their power worldwide. The immediate neighbourhood is the primary concern . They dont have any political interest in the rest of the NE states, but the strategic location is priceless. Also if they get access to Bangladesh or Myanmar - Vietnam as well, they could try another CPEC into the Bay of Bengal, which will be an even safer alternative to a CPEC through Pak-Afghanistan.

Do countries simply want to annex more and more land and add more area to its already huge landscape? Would China then set it's sight to annex Bengal? Where will it stop?

Try reading about the South China Sea dispute. What you said is exactly what CHina is trying to do !!

It sees itself as the Pre-eminent power of Asia and feels the need to drive that poit home. Japan did the same pre-1945. The occupation of China by Japan in the early 20th Century also led to deep scars in the Chinese psyche, which they think can be avenged only by what they are doing now.

Already China has invested billions in AID to Sri Lanks and Maldives in return for building military-ready Airports and Naval bases in these Islands. Apart from being able to have unchallenged influence in the Indian ocean and south China sea, they will also lead to China having far more power to transport goods to and from from their mainland to the rest of the world.

 

[Rafa]

China considers and always calls Arunachal as "Southern Tibet ". Apart from the strategic importance (entry point to India, poor terrain access from India's side meaning tough to defend attacks from that direction), the next Dalai Lama can only be chosen from a region that comes under the ancient tibet territory. Out of this China controls all regions of ancient Tibet except Arunachal.

So the possibility of another Dalai Lama being reincarnated/discovered from Arunachal exists, Who will continue the present Dalai Lama's Tibetian Government in Exile, and further lead the anti occupation movement in Tibet . With Arunachal under their control China now has full authority over crowning the Next Lama, which will of course be a pro-China puppet of their choosing . So that would mean the absolute completion of the Tibetean occupation !



The Chinese communist government sees it as their duty to spread their version of communism and project their power worldwide. The immediate neighbourhood is the primary concern . They dont have any political interest in the rest of the NE states, but the strategic location is priceless. Also if they get access to Bangladesh or Myanmar - Vietnam as well, they could try another CPEC into the Bay of Bengal, which will be an even safer alternative to a CPEC through Pak-Afghanistan.



Try reading about the South China Sea dispute. What you said is exactly what CHina is trying to do !!

It sees itself as the Pre-eminent power of Asia and feels the need to drive that poit home. Japan did the same pre-1945. The occupation of China by Japan in the early 20th Century also led to deep scars in the Chinese psyche, which they think can be avenged only by what they are doing now.

Already China has invested billions in AID to Sri Lanks and Maldives in return for building military-ready Airports and Naval bases in these Islands. Apart from being able to have unchallenged influence in the Indian ocean and south China sea, they will also lead to China having far more power to transport goods to and from from their mainland to the rest of the world.

Thank you for the post, very informative.

Geopolitics is serious business.

 

[gani999]

You are gravely mistaken brother. It's not the threat of pakistan that is the primary issue. If India gives away Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh goes next .

There is atleast 10% hope on our side that in case Kashmir is granted freedom hypothetically Pakistan will not try and annex it fully. But in Arunachal Pradesh's case it is ZERO !!! Arunachal and certain other parts of North East were ruled by Buddhist monks for Intermittent periods in India's history . So via annexing Tibet, China thinks it can claim Arunachal as well.

Once that happens, China does its usual stuff, wipe out local culture, force communism, crush any & all Pro-India sentiment. Within 20-30 years we're looking at a completely China-fied Arunachal. Further support for Separatists in Nagaland, Mizoram, Assam etc ensues. China will try and take over as much of the North east as it can , simply for the race issue(they look like us so they're better off with us ).

This will set off a chain reaction that will threaten the integrity of our entire nation. That IS THE ISSUE !

Sorry to say but you are living in fairy tale land if you think that the integrity of India will be threatened if Kashmir is allowed to go its separate way. Shocking that you have understood so little of your own homeland.

The whole of India, barring perhaps Kashmir and Nagaland, is quite happy with the idea of a united India. There weren't any secessionist movements anywhere the last time I checked. Now even the Nagas are coming around.

Kashmir of course, is a very special case. It would be naiive to assume that what could happen there will lead to a domino effect all over India.

 

[adit_sh]

The problem is not Kashmir but complete religious disconnect. Hindus perceive majority of Muslims to be butchers with 1000 years of history. It may not be entirely true but this perception is not going to go soon!!

 

[SandyB]

Sorry to say but you are living in fairy tale land if you think that the integrity of India will be threatened if Kashmir is allowed to go its separate way. Shocking that you have understood so little of your own homeland.

The whole of India, barring perhaps Kashmir and Nagaland, is quite happy with the idea of a united India. There weren't any secessionist movements anywhere the last time I checked. Now even the Nagas are coming around.

Kashmir of course, is a very special case. It would be naiive to assume that what could happen there will lead to a domino effect all over India.

I do not mean an immediate threat . It would empower secessionist forces for sure . The rate at which India is changing now , it's not a 100 percent secure future as you make it look .

 

[gani999]

I do not mean an immediate threat . It would empower secessionist forces for sure . The rate at which India is changing now , it's not a 100 percent secure future as you make it look .

The situation in Kashmir, if anything, should have empowered other secessionist movements in India a long time ago. It hasn't.

And yes, India may be changing but I don't see anyone wanting to leave and form a separate country.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

One question which has been on my mind for some time now is why is Pakistan so difficult for India to make peace with? They seem to have quelled the issues with Sri Lanka at least on the surface, they have the Bangladeshi govt on board, and they have at least some influence with the Afghan regime now.

Seems like Pakistan is the long term obstacle, but with such reach, why has a rising power failed to use soft power to win over a failing state?

 

[Syed1]

It is in India's doctrine to expand India to pre-1947 levels. Even if Kashmir is resolved tomorrow, India will try to absorb Pakistan back in its fold which obviously is unacceptable to 99.9% of Pakistanis.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

It is in India's doctrine to expand India to pre-1947 levels. Even if Kashmir is resolved tomorrow, India will try to absorb Pakistan back in its fold which obviously is unacceptable to 99.9% of Pakistanis.

Personally I don't believe that. It would double their Muslim population and give that group far more clout. Why do you think they have fenced off Bangladesh rather than look to absorb them back into their fold?

 

[Zahid87]

Personally I don't believe that. It would double their Muslim population and give that group far more clout. Why do you think they have fenced off Bangladesh rather than look to absorb them back into their fold?

Agree. There is, and has been, lower hanging fruit as well. Nepal and Bhutan come to mind. Post the Chinese invasion of Tibet, India could have tried to absorb these countries, if it was of an expansionist mindset.

In any case, now it would be almost impossible to try and subvert a country of the size and population of Pakistan forcefully. It just can't happen unless 180m people suddenly decide that they want to be fully fledged Indians. As of now, India is struggling to control 10m people in Kashmir.

Anyone thinking of changing the current borders in any way is living in cloud cuckoo land. Its not the middle ages anymore. To be frank, even Pakistan should look for an honourable exit in the Kashmir situation, and move on instead of using it as political capital.

 

[Tusker]

It is in India's doctrine to expand India to pre-1947 levels. Even if Kashmir is resolved tomorrow, India will try to absorb Pakistan back in its fold which obviously is unacceptable to 99.9% of Pakistanis.

Just curious to understand how you came to believe that to be true.

 

[Syed1]

Just curious to understand how you came to believe that to be true.

I only go by what your political leaders say