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South Africa look locked and loaded for the semi-finals. Pakistan seem set on an early trip home. Another win for Temba Bavuma's team at the SCG on Thursday would all but confirm both of those looming realities.
The South Africans were on the verge of beating Zimbabwe in Hobart on October 24 when the game was washed out. They responded by winning against Bangladesh in Sydney last Thursday and against India in Perth on Sunday, and finding different ways to do so into the bargain. Babar Azam's side have undertaken the reverse journey. Having squandered a bulletproof position to lose, to India, the greatest T20I yet played at the MCG on October 23, Pakistan then crashed to Zimbabwe by a single run in Perth four days later. No doubt still shellshocked by what happened at the MCG, the Pakistanis were ripe for the picking by the ambitious, feisty Zimbos.
In their most recent match, in Perth on Sunday, Pakistan dealt emphatically with the Netherlands; limiting them to 91/9 and polishing off the target with 6.1 overs to spare. But the damage of those two early defeats, particularly the way they went down to India, clearly run deep.
The South Africans are quietly building up a serious head of steam. They had to work harder to beat India in challenging conditions, in the second half of the doubleheader in Perth on Sunday, than they might have thought after they held Rohit Sharma's team to 133/9. But even getting home with two balls remaining couldn't dull the salient truth that they are the only team to beat India at this tournament so far.
All of which says South Africa should win at the SCG on Thursday. Except that they've never beaten Pakistan in this tournament.
When: Thursday, November 3, 7pm Local Time (1.30pm IST)
Where: Sydney Cricket Ground
What to expect: A 40% chance of showers in the evening, which is pretty much the standard Sydney forecast. That means it probably won't rain. Despite the SCG's historically sluggish runrate in T20Is - only the MCG's was lower in Australia going into the tournament - three of the top five totals in the T20 World Cup, including both 200 toppers ahead of Wednesday's games, have been recorded here.
Head to head: Pakistan have won 11 of their 21 T20Is against South Africa, including all three games when the teams have met in previous editions of what is now called the T20 World Cup.
Team watch:
Pakistan:
Injured/Unavailable: Fakhar Zaman's ongoing knee injury will keep him out of the match. He is likely to be replaced in the XI by Mohammad Haris, one of Pakistan's travelling reserves.
Tactics/Matchups: With Zaman out, the performance of Shan Masood, already Pakistan's most consistent batter in the tournament, becomes even more key to their chances.
Probable XI: Mohammad Rizwan, Babar Azam (capt), Mohammad Haris, Shan Masood, Iftikhar Ahmed, Shadab Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Wasim, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah
South Africa:
Injured/Unavailable: No outstanding issues.
Tactics/Matchups: Although it can seem as if South Africa's entire game revolves around booming fast bowling and Quinton de Kock, players like Rilee Rossouw, Aiden Markram, David Miller and Wayne Parnell have emphasised their worth during the tournament.
Probable XI: Quinton de Kock, Temba Bavuma (capt), Rilee Rossouw, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Tristan Stubbs, Wayne Parnell, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje, Lungi Ngidi
Did you know?
- The last time South Africa beat Pakistan in either kind of World Cup Mark Boucher and Saqlain Mushtaq were in the XIs. They prevailed by three wickets at Trent Bridge in June 1999.
- Teams batting first have won all four T20 World Cup matches played at the SCG, and all by convincing margins - India's 56-run thumping of the Netherlands is the smallest.
What they said:
"I don't think anyone is thinking about the India game, because as a professional you can't dwell on the past - especially when you lose. Everyone was positive after that game." - Naseem Shah tries to explain away the lingering effects of losing the tournament's biggest game.
"In the past year we've found ourselves in tricky situations and managed to get over the line. The guys have managed to find their roles. If one of us is not doing well, another one picks up the slack. It's difficult to do well in this format because there are a lot of variables, but we've managed to do well as a team." - David Miller on South Africa's increasing versatility.
Squads:
Pakistan Squad: Mohammad Rizwan(w), Babar Azam(c), Mohammad Haris, Shan Masood, Iftikhar Ahmed, Shadab Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Wasim Jr, Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah, Mohammad Hasnain, Khushdil Shah, Haider Ali, Asif Ali
South Africa Squad: Quinton de Kock(w), Temba Bavuma(c), Rilee Rossouw, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Tristan Stubbs, Wayne Parnell, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Tabraiz Shamsi, Marco Jansen, Heinrich Klaasen, Reeza Hendricks
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